The remittance economy and the long-term future

CBC Radio is running a short series of reports on remittance workers. Those are people who maintain a permanent residence in Newfoundland and Labrador but who travel to other places, mostly Alberta, to earn a living.

If the CBC figures are accurate - upwards of 10,000 people earning pre-tax salaries of $100,000 a year - then remittance labourers are contributing to the Newfoundland and Labrador economy on a scale that rivals agriculture and the fishery.

Remittance labour is a common feature of the economy in the developing world. The figures for Newfoundland and Labrador would be also on a par with some countries at the low end of the scale in a 2003 World Bank study. Bond Papers noted the local history of remittance work in a post earlier in 2007.

The local workers involved in the Newfoundland and Labrador version of remittance labour include fishery workers displaced by changes in that industry. Others are older, skilled workers from the former paper plant at Stephenville or from the shipyard at Marystown. Neither of these groups will likely be doing the Big Commute for a long time. Either the projects they are working on will shut down or they will retire in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Others are young men and women who are attracted by high wages and steady work in their chosen fields. While the older workers are contributing to a localized economic boom in places without major industries - like Marystown or Stephenville -

Only a major and sustained series of local projects rivaling the work elsewhere will cause the younger workers to stay in the local labour force. Many are likely to settle outside of Newfoundland and Labrador.

In that context, it's interesting to recall that in 2003 Danny Williams campaigned on his commitment to "growing" the economy and creating jobs. He didn't do that, of course, as Bond Papers has noted several times, including in a reprint of a 2004 column from the original (pre-Cleary) incarnation of The Independent. The economic miracle of the past four years has been entirely due to the upsurge in world oil prices.

Essentially, the current progressive Conservative administration is following the same approach of its predecessors. The long-term is sacrificed to short-term expediency. The rise of highly-paid remittance work has served to both cushion the blow of outmigration and enable the provincial government to contribute disproportionately to the provincial economy in the process.

The current administration started out, supposedly, with a plan to control spending and deal with the burgeoning provincial debt. In reality, it did nothing about either. Spending has grown by 35% - well beyond the rate of inflation - and at the same time, the provincial direct and total debt is larger today than it was in 2003. Spending is forecast to increase, as is the debt.

Both oil prices and the remittance economy are shaky underpinnings for government spending and development of larger debt. Oil prices are historically subject to significant fluctuations. The remittance economy is limited either by the life of projects or the short time some of the workers have left to retirement.

Remittance work and the related subject of demographic changes in the province have been largely ignored by successive provincial governments in Newfoundland and Labrador and there is virtually no discussion of it in the public at large.

Perhaps the CBC report will change that.

-srbp-

Invasion of the sock puppets

Telegram media blogger Geoff Meeker has been on a thread lately about local talk shows and the organized partisan callers.

His latest post includes some comments from people who worked inside the system.

One in particular is worth quoting since it fairly and accurately describes the current state of affairs:

Political operatives organize and coordinate it. Government-side in-house political operatives, voluntary political operatives and key 'lay' party members are all given direction (and often talking points, generated by communications people and other public servants for ministers' use) to call on particular topics.

Communications personnel in Communications Branch are and were public service employees. They were required to monitor, analyze and advise on response to talk radio, but not to call…. Making partisan calls would undermine their professional reputation for balance and fairness in doing their core jobs.

Line department new or junior communications personnel have occasionally been asked to call, by both administrations, especially if they are politically connected. When they (and their voices) became/become better known to media, they were no longer asked to do so.

I never worked in the opposition office, but had I had friends there and my sense is that there is (and was) less if any line-stacking directed out of there. This may be due to lack of resources - fewer communications staff to draft the talking points, fewer political staff to rally the volunteer troops, fewer volunteer troops, etc... This is yet another area where her majesty's loyal opposition is out-gunned by Her Majesty's government.

Of course, there are still callers challenging government on a partisan basis, but that is usually self-directed, except during election time.

This is a fascinating and very useful bit of public discussion. I think it really helps for people to understand how this particular talk radio environment works.

Meeker links to Bond Papers that nets him a big thanks for the traffic.  To make it easier for his readers, here's a link to the first of a three part series from August and September 2006 on the whole business of astroturfing that the current administration has raised to an art form. One of the big changes from the system employed before October 2003 is that the current administration co-opts public servants into an essentially partisan process.

Of course, readers can also site search Bond Papers for the words "pitcher plant" and find a bunch of other posts.

Astroturfing is an old political idea. It shows up in newspaper letters, radio call-back lines and on the Internet through web sites or news (discussion) groups. Some of the anonymous and pseudonymous commenters are also well-known open line callers or partisan political operatives.

"Kirwin Nicholson", for example, is just one sock puppet created for the recent campaign.  He or she made several posts before accidentally revealing himself in a partisan attack on one Liberal candidate by posting using his or her more common identity.

Since there is no way of knowing who is actually posting, a great many of the people posting to nf.general on political topics could be sock puppets, Internet slang for "the act of creating a fake online identity to praise, defend or create the illusion of support for one’s self, allies or company."

-srbp-

Woodrow, Dumaresque should resign

The Liberal Party and the people of Newfoundland and Labrador should be seeing a couple of resignations this weekend.

They won't see either, but they are entitled to both.

John Woodrow should do the right thing and withdraw as the Liberal candidate in the deferred election in Grand Falls-Windsor-Buchans. if Woodrow had any serious interest in the job, he'd have come forward long before now. But that's not the real problem.

Almost a decade ago, Woodrow was at the centre of of an alleged bribery scandal. No charges were laid, but in the allegations Woodrow made, he told a justice department lawyer that he had paid bribes to a cabinet minister and several officials.

The police investigated but no charges were laid.

Nonetheless, Woodrow seemed quite happy to make the allegation in the first place. Even if we allow for the presumption of innocence on Woodrow's part, that is, if he didn't provide any benefits to the minister, the minister direct family and/or the minister's staff in contravention of the Criminal Code, Woodrow's willingness to make such an accusation in the first place makes him unfit to hold any public office. That conclusion should be patently obvious.

As for Danny Dumaresque, the party president, he should resign for failing to do anything to discharge his responsibilities in this matter properly. By his own admission, Dumaresque did not meet with Woodrow prior to signing the nomination papers.

Obviously, Dumaresque didn't even conduct a simple google search. Had he searched for "John Woodrow Newfoundland" the very first thing to appear would have been a reference to the scandal.

The party president is responsible, among other things, for the proper administration of the party. Even if the district level executive was willing to accept Woodrow, the party president owes a duty of care to the party as a whole, to the provincial executive and to the leader. Dumaresque failed in that responsibility.

When the party executive board meets again - according to some sources they are meeting this weekend - the first order of business should be ending Woodrow's candidacy. if he's not prepared to quit, then the party executive must act.

The second order of business should be to accept Dumaresque's resignation. The only honourable thing for him to do is quit.

If Dumaresque tries to stay on, then it is incumbent on the executive to fire him.

Should they fail to act, the individual members of the board who approve of Woodrow and Dumaresque in this instance can expect their own tenure in office will be as short as short can be.

Meaningless numbers

At what point will someone in the provincial government's business department decide to tell the people of Newfoundland and Labrador just exactly what sorts of regulatory requirements have been eliminated or reduced as part of the so-called red tape reduction program?

"We have further reduced the number of regulatory requirements by 32,866, which means the elimination of an additional 11,651 requirements since April," said Minister [Kevin] O'Brien. "We have successfully reduced the regulatory burden by just over 10.5 per cent. This achievement puts us on the way to the halfway mark of our objective to reduce the number of regulatory requirements within government by 25 per cent."

This is the kind of vacuous statement that brings public relations into disrepute. Without knowing what the "regulatory requirements" are, no one can tell whether or not eliminating even one of them actually means anything.

This isn't news.

It's drivel.

Vacuous, meaningless tripe.

Let's not even discuss the tortured grammar of that first sentence of the quote.

Rather than this pile of words, the two communications directors involved - that's right, it took two people to issue it - could simply have printed a limerick.

You know the one:

There once was a young man named Paul

-srbp-

Alberta boosts royalties

Alberta premier Ed Stelmach announced today that the Alberta government has accepted most of the recommendations of a recent review panel and will therefore hike oil and gas royalties by 20%.

The new royalty framework announced today will boost overall royalties by $1.4 billion or 20 per cent in 2010. But Stelmach has rejected a call to impose an oilsands severance tax that established producers would have had to begin paying next year.

The new rates, which will hike royalties from current highs of 35 per cent to a maximum 50 per cent for conventional oil and natural gas, won't take effect until 2009.

-srbp-

EnCana approves $700 million Deep Panuke gas project

CALGARY, Alberta, Oct 25 (Reuters) - EnCana Corp (ECA.TO) will build its own pipeline to ship gas to shore from its C$700 million ($721 million) Deep Panuke gas project off Nova Scotia rather than use the line from the nearby Sable project, an EnCana spokesman said.

EnCana had been weighing the two options since before it restarted regulatory proceedings early this year for the Atlantic Canada gas development.

"Each of the parties (EnCana and the Sable partners) looked at it. It was agreed that technical, commercial and operational circumstances were not something we could come to an agreement on. It didn't have optimal benefits for both," EnCana spokesman Alan Boras said.

EnCana gave the corporate green light on Thursday to Deep Panuke, which will be the first new project off the coast of Nova Scotia since Sable was developed in the 1990s.

It is due to start producing 200 million to 300 million cubic feet of gas a day in 2010.

The cost of building the pipeline to Goldsboro, Nova Scotia, from the gas field, 250 km (155 miles) southeast of Halifax, is included in the overall C$700 million capital budget, Boras said.

Sable partners Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N) and Royal Dutch Shell have their combined 18 % interest in the Deep Panuke project on the auction block.

-srbp-

Workers wonder where Williams wanders while woodwork withers

From CBC:

"I'm kind of wondering where Danny Williams stands on it all. I'd like to know," said Nathan Wareham, who attended a meeting of Corner Brook Pulp and Paper workers on Wednesday evening about parent company Kruger Inc.'s planned cuts.

Apparently, the premier is on vacation, according to his office, following his recent election victory.

Which, if memory serves, was preceded by a vacation.

-srbp-

Change is good

If you've been reading Bond Papers regularly, you'll likely notice the format changes over the past few weeks.

We've changed the masthead, colour scheme and the fonts, all with a view to making Bond Papers visually appealing and and easier to read.

The latest change is to stretch the layout so that each post is wider across the page. The whole thing should be more legible and the layout works well at the two most common display settings being used by Bond Papers readers.

The sidebar is also wider. This also facilitates reading but it also makes the content more attractive to the eye.

-srbp-

The hard work of being Premier, another perspective

And while Danny is off having a bit of a lark, the province has been left in the hands of this man, right, deputy Premier Tom Rideout.

Rideout said "there is no urgent public business" facing the legislature and all of it can be dealt with in the new year.

Draw your own conclusions.

-srbp-

The hard work of being Premier

Looking kinda tanned just before the election [Photo: right].

Vacation maybe?

No House of Assembly sitting until sometime next Easter because supposedly there isn't enough time to get everything ready in the six or seven weeks between election day and the usual time for opening the House in the fall.

Two television appearances after the election.

And this Saturday night?

Ottawa for the national press gallery annual dinner.

Steve won't be there, apparently, but Layton and Dion will be.

-srbp-

The political road ahead

Update: Kruger machine closure and government subsidies

The official government news release came in the middle of Monday afternoon.

Turns out the provincial government has subsidized the newsprint industry to the tune of $30 million over just the past two years.

In the release, natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale notes:

"We met with Kruger officials last week and told them very clearly that this was unacceptable. We reminded the company of the support it has received from this government. In the last two years, we have provided over $30 million in assistance to the pulp and paper industry in this province. The company has revisited its plans and moved ahead with today’s action that will see the shutdown of one machine. The impact of their business decision has been lessened because of the significant support this government has provided, and continues to provide, to this industry."

Hmmmm.

The last time issues like this came up, the provincial government wound up shelling out millions in subsidies. In 2006, it was an unspecified amount to deal with a cost problem with operations on the island. Later in 2006, it was a $10 million subsidy on power costs. A bit of simple math suggests that the earlier subsidy was upwards of $20 million but the actual figure was never made public; it could be there have been other subsidies that Dunderdale or her predecessor never announced publicly.

Subsidies to private industry are nothing new for the current administration. In a failed effort to salvage the Abitibi mill in Stephenville, the provincial government was prepared to offer the company upwards of $10-12 million annually to keep the mill open. Bond Papers concluded that subsidy actually worked out to more than the provincial government's tax take from Abitibi's Stephenville operation in certain circumstances.

No one should be surprised if there is a government decision between now and next spring, while the legislature is conveniently closed, to announce further subsidies for the pulp and paper industry in the province.

-srbp-

Rumpole and the Car Park

When I good friends was called to the bar... I never imagined I'd be adjudicating parking disputes."

One can easily imagine Chief Justice Derek Green being somewhat chagrined as he dutifully took the submissions of the High Sheriff of Newfoundland and Labrador and the Registrar of the Supreme Court and rendered a 14 page decision over parking spaces at the court house in St. John's.

The application made by the Sheriff sought a variance in a 2004 order on the use of court parking spaces on the Water Street side of the court house. The Sheriff was looking for two parking spaces in the lot which is controlled by the Registrar. The dispute apparently involved Sheriff's officials and others who took to parking in the spaces in such a way as to block access to some of the spaces in the overcrowded and over-permitted space.

After a recapitulation of the entire situation, the Chief Justice issued a simple order, amounting to granting two spaces to the Sheriff's officials.

[34] There is no basis for continuing the injunctive order against the two officials of the Office of the High Sheriff designated by the High Sheriff as needing access to parking on the Water Street lot. Accordingly, I will make the following order and declaration:
1. The Interim Order (Ex Parte) made on March 17, 2004 is hereby varied by adding an additional paragraph as follows:

5. Notwithstanding anything contained in this Order, it shall not apply to two persons employed in the Office of the High Sheriff and designated in writing by him from time to time as eligible to apply to the Registrar for a permit to park on the Parking Lot

2. It is declared that the Registrar has the discretion:
(a) to issue permits to park on the Parking Lot to the two persons designated by the High Sheriff pursuant to paragraph 5 of the amended order, subject to such conditions and restrictions as may be appropriate to promote the overall effective and efficient use of the parking lot for the benefit of all users; and
(b) to revoke any such permits from time to time or to impose revised conditions and restrictions thereon as circumstances may dictate.

Considering the valuable time of the courts and the costs involved by all parties, including the time of the Chief Justice, surely it was possible that this matter might have been resolved more amicably, less tediously and in a far less costly way than this.

Horace would not be amused.

-srbp-

Shame! Shame!

The red line: The number of sitting days, by year, in the unelected Senate, from 1996 to 2007. The last number is estimated, since the Senate is still sitting. It's current total of 54 days (as of 22 Oct 2007) will likely hit the 70 days or thereabouts which have been typical over the last five years.

The blue line: Sitting days in the elected House of Assembly, over the same time period. The 2007 figure is accurate since the Williams administration has decided to cancel the usual fall sitting of the provincial legislature.

For all the jokes about the Senate being the ante-chamber to the Kingdom of heaven and the the cracks about senators not showing up for work and still getting paid, here are the bare facts. It should be an embarrassment to every legislator in Newfoundland and Labrador that the senators put in more time doing their jobs than their local elected cousins do.

Consider that senators spend considerable time outside the chamber attending committee meetings on a variety of subjects like the fishery, national defence, or federal-provincial relations. Members of the House of Assembly are not burdened by such responsibilities; they just get to show up and, if the last sitting is any guide to the future, nod their approval when the House leader gestures such that 70% of the bills presented get passed with a mere couple of hours of discussion. Legislation in the local chamber are never subjected to detailed scrutiny by the elected representatives of the province.

The men and women who fought to have responsible government established in Newfoundland and Labrador are surely spinning in their graves.

Those of us who voted in the recent general election are just plain appalled.

-srbp-

Almost immediate update: Since 2003, the House of Assembly has met, on average, about the same number of days each year that Tom Rideout spent as Premier in 1989.

Kruger shuts machine at Corner Brook

Faced with declining demand and a high Canadian dollar, Kruger Inc is shutting Paper Machine No. 1 at its Corner Brook operation. The shut-down is for an indefinite period beginning November 5 and will reduce the mill's output by 80,000 tonnes annually.

No sign when the provincial government first learned of the decision, although it was far enough in advance to see the natural resources minister shipped to Corner Brook for a media availability. Kathy Dunderdale told CBC's Radio Noon that the provincial government had "invested' heavily in Kruger's Corner Brook operation in recent years. Dunderdale put the figure at $20 million. That would include a harvesting subsidy announced by Dunderdale's predecessor Ed Byrne to Kruger in March 2006, although the government didn't announce the price paid at the time. That amount would also include a power cost subsidy of $10 million Dunderdale announced last October.

Dunderdale said 83 people will be laid off as a result of the machine closure but that the figure might be reduced to 13 due to layoffs.

Kruger closed one machine temporarily in July, 2007 citing the same reasons as the ones given on Monday.

-srbp-

Right-wing facebook

Thanks to Kevin for the link to this parody of facebook for Republican candidates in the United States.

For those who might be wondering, red is the colour associated with the Grand Old party, while blue is for Democrats.

Enjoy!

-srbp-

Saskatchewan election blogs

Cross-posted from John Murney's blog:

I have been following a number of other blogs that are also giving some measure of coverage to the provincial election campaign. Here are some of those blogs...

Small Dead Animals

Although Kate McMillan is not blogging only about the election campaign, the stuff Kate posts is usually substantive and noteworthy. Kate has a razorsharp wit, and a keenly analytical mind. I feel SDA is the strong conservative voice in cyberspace in this election campaign.

Catprint in the Mash

Lance Levsen falls into the same category as Kate - I pay close attention to anything Lance has to say about this election. Lance is a great analyzer, and I enjoy his feedback on the daily twists and turns of this campaign. Lance's blog is a must read for anyone wishing to follow the campaign.

Giant Political Mouse

GPM is the primary left-wing blog in this election campaign. To get a good idea of what lefties think about this campaign, GPM is a credible voice in that regard. GPM is one of my daily reads in this campaign, and you should add it to your list of election blogs as well. This blog makes for a great read.

NDP Boogeyman

Since making contact with the host of NDP Boogeyman blog last week, I have been paying close attention to this blog's careful monitoring of the Saskatchewan New Democratic Party in this election campaign. You should put this blog high on your list of reads.

Larry Hubich's Blog

The President of the Saskatchewan Federation of Labour has an excellent overall blog, and in particular many keen and interesting insights and observations about the provincial election campaign. No list of blogs covering the provincial election would be complete without adding Larry's blog!

Birkbeck's Blog

Larry Birkbeck is a former Saskatchewan Progressive Conservative MLA and is now an independent political consultant. Larry has excellent political judgment, and his commentary on this provincial election campaign is ignored at our peril. I have never known Larry to be wrong in his assessment of the Saskatchewan political landscape, and his special insight will be invaluable in the days ahead.

The blogs I have listed above are all well written by intelligent people. Their coverage of the Saskatchewan election campaign is incisive, well thought out, creative, and credible.

-srbp-

A new Beowulf movie

Coming November 16, another new movie based on the oldest story in English:  Beowulf.

The tagline on the in-theatre poster:  Pride is the curse.

Trailer 1:

 

Trailer 2 [Note:  nudity and violence]:

 

-srbp-

Simms and facts

VOCM, as its own promotions informs the listening audience, is a member of the Radio-Television News Directors Association. The RTNDA Code of Ethics states:

Broadcast journalists will inform the public in an accurate, comprehensive and fair manner about events and issues of importance.

VOCM is also a member of the Canadian Broadcast Standards Council. The Council’s Code of Ethics states:

It is recognized that the full, fair and proper presentation of news, opinion, comment and editorial is the prime and fundamental responsibility of each broadcaster. This principle shall apply to all radio and television programming, whether it relates to news, public affairs, magazine, talk, call-in, interview or other broadcasting formats in which news, opinion, comment or editorial may be expressed by broadcaster employees, their invited guests or callers.

Randy Simms is a VOCM on-air personality. On election night, he provided colour commentary on the results for CBC TV. During the course of the night he made assertions of fact which elicited this response on CBC’s Your View website feature:

I just cannot understand why Randy Simms is on tonight commenting on the election as he is far from an expert! For one thing, his comment that "the province's MHAs want what federal members get - they get a pot" is incorrect. If he had looked into this matter, he would have been told that federal politicians do not have a pot and are actually prohibited from giving donations, money to sports groups, charities, individuals, etc. - that's been the policy for years. When he makes remarks like these, he loses all credibility on his other comments. Otherwise, I have been enjoying your coverage. Lynn Tucker Torbay Posted October 9, 2007 10:13 PM

Lynn Tucker is right.

Randy Simms was, and is wrong.

And, in repeating the same assertion recently, on his own VOCM program, regarding federal members and their non-existent “pots”, he didn’t become any less wrong.

In fact, he became wronger, if that is even possible.

It is bad enough that certain members of the House of Assembly used the non-existent federal “pots” to justify their own spending practices.

They do not need Randy Simms, contrary to the radio industry’s own standards, to flog that falsehood for them.

-srbp-

High Priestess of the Cult

Personality Cult, that is.

Pam Frampton, Telegram story editor.

Her column could scarcely be more wrong factually, it could have easily been written for the recent Tory campaign.

Yes, ladies and gentlemen, the news media is the New Opposition.

The Danny-approved, new style opposition.

No opposition at all.

Just breathless support.

-srbp-