This graph will likely cause some people to scratch their chins or heads. The reason is simple: it isn’t the story they’ve been told, namely the one that holds that all our ills of outmigration and the like vanished after 2003.
In fact, if you look at it, outmigration from Newfoundland and Labrador to Alberta has been greatest over the last 10 years or so.
This chart confirms what most of us already realize: there is a part of the province where the population is growing; there are others where the population is shrinking.
The figures are from the latest Statistics Canada population analysis.
The chart shows year over year changes.
Update Note: The scale on the left is the rate per thousand of population, not a percentage.
Updated update: Just to put this in a bit better perspective it's useful to note the observation made by Statistics Canada on page 55 (57 of the pdf). Of the 10 economic regions experiencing the largest population decreases in 2007, six were in Atlantic Canada.
Nationally, the situation in Newfoundland and Labrador is particularly noteworthy. The top two regions experiencing loss were in Newfoundland. West Coast - Northern Peninsula - Labrador came in at sixth out of the top 10:
Like last year, Newfoundland and Labrador’s South Coast - Burin Peninsula ER experienced the largest population decrease of all, with a negative growth of –26.9 per thousand. Two other Newfoundland and Labrador ERs were among those with the largest population decreases: Notre Dame - Central Bonavista Bay in 2nd place (-17.6 per thousand) and West Coast - Northern Peninsula – Labrador in 6th place (-11.0 per thousand).
The population decreases between July 1, 2006 and July 1, 2007 in these ERs can be partly attributed to precarious local economic conditions and Alberta’s strong appeal. Between 2001 and 2006, 19,954 people moved from Newfoundland and Labrador to Alberta, representing 34.24 % of all interprovincial migrants from the eastern province.
If you follow the link above, you'll notice that other regions in the top 10 lost more people in absolute numbers. However, the relative proportion (rate per thousand) was higher in the two Newfoundland regions that scored in first and second place.
The chart on page 71 compares the age and sex profile of the South Coast-Burin Peninsula (light blue) economic region with Red Deer.
The population of the Newfoundland region is significantly older than that of the Alberta region. SC-BP has experienced one of the highest rates of outmigration - both interprovincial and intraprovincial - at negative 101 per thousand between 2001 and 2007), particularly men and women in their 20s.
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vocm.com, known to some as Voice of the Cabinet Minister, was suitably gushy: "The tide may be changing."
Sorry, dears, but one spot does not a trend make.
Others were more factual and straightforward in their reporting, like say cbc.ca/nl:
The population of Newfoundland and Labrador is seeing its biggest increase in 15 years, according to numbers released Wednesday by Statistics Canada, and it's all down to moving Albertans.
The Telegram relegated the story to a small sidebar.
The story is quarterly population statistics from Statistics Canada that shows the first quarter of net positive in-migration for the province since 2003.
Not surprisingly, labradore puts the thing into a different perspective, something that is sadly lacking from popular commentary and media coverage.
At right is a chart showing the quarterly net population change figures for this province.
Take a good look at the numbers.
Continuing population decline every quarter, save for a few. The cause of the declines in the 1990s was undoubtedly the combined impact of the cod moratorium and the relative weakness of the rest of the provincial economy.
But take a notice of the point made at labradore.
The quarters preceding the latest one have been marked by net population drop. Some quarters were near the largest drops in the past 15 years.
The trend is still downward.
Overall, the population trends remain consistent with projections from the provincial government's own statistics analysis division and those trends have been forecast since the early 1990s. The trend will likely remain downward for some time.
Now for those into facile labelling of things, for those who find it comforting when everything fits into a pigeonhole - like say a few reporters and editors [read the comments sections] - this observation will be seen as further proof of things being "anti-Danny" or, oh horror, of being "negative."
Yes, Bond Papers is a buzz kill.
But that's really a bit like the guy in high school who had a theory. If he studied for the physics exam stoned and wrote it stoned, he should be a genius. Sadly, he got 12 pages of his own name. One of his buddies, who used the same theory, wound up with a line drawing of his family jewels that came from a cross between Grey's Anatomy and what we presumed was his own delusional self-image.
Those of us who pointed out the error in the deluded idea before they wrote the exam were well, fairly predictably labelled as "negative". Nothing we said killed the buzz as much as the mark the guys received for their efforts.
As Bond Papers has noted several times already over the past three years, the demographic changes in Newfoundland and Labrador have several components each of which poses policy challenges for the provincial government.
The population is growing progressive older, on average, for one. In relatively short order, the dependent part of the population - those under 15 years old and over 65 - will be larger than the workforce. That means, in part, that the economy has to be more productive; each worker must be more productive than it is today just to hold things steady. Incidentally, part of the basis for the 1992 Strategic Economic Plan was the understanding of these long-term trends, the state of the economy at the time and what needed to be done to meet the challenges coming up to 2012.
The older population - the changing mix of age cohorts - means that among other things spending priorities need to shift. Within health care, long-term care will become relatively more important than acute care. The school-age population will likely decline, meaning that we will have fewer students and hence a change in education spending. New schools will be needed in some places and in others, schools will be closing. Take a look around the province and see the number of communities where the average age is above 55 and there are simply no children and very few if any families of child-rearing age.
The population distribution is also changing within the province. People are moving away from smaller communities and towards the larger centres. Increased mobility hasn't changed that; people still travel to the larger centres to find key services. Where public services are located and where new ones will be needed will shift as the population changes.
The declining total population, the one that gets the most political attention is another one. But oddly enough, it's the one the provincial government can do the least about. Government doesn't create jobs; it creates a climate in which business develops and jobs are created or maintained.
The provincial government has lately focused on this one aspect - the gross total population - especially as it seems to involve the skilled workers needed for large construction projects. There are a couple of observations.
First, given the nature of a local economy built largely on natural resource production, the size of the population as significant an indicator of economic health as in other economies. Some of the wealthiest countries per capita on the planet have small populations. There simply isn't a magic number which indicates a 'good' population for Newfoundland and Labrador or anywhere else. So, without a number to aim for, there is nothing to know when any government efforts are succeeding or failing.
Second, the labour demand needed for constructing everything from offshore platforms to energy projects will be met by the private sector. Much of the work will have to be done in the province anyway, like say the gravity-base for Hebron. As for the other stuff, like say the topsides on that project, if the provincial government hasn't already given permission for the operators to do it somewhere else, the private sector will find the labour and control costs to deliver it. What can be done here will be done here.
Do a little reverse engineering for a moment. Faced with a labour shortage due to the hyper-demand of its economy, the Government of Alberta didn't launch an advertising campaign and talk about chartering jumbo jets to fly the Alberta wing of the diaspora home. Nope. The private sector tackled it. The private sector companies doing the work know their skill needs; they recruit based on the skill-sets the need and as long as the people are willing to come, have the qualifications and can do the work when needed, they get hired.
When you send a bus to pick up bodies what you get is a busload of bodies. And before anyone notes that obviously the recruiting will be done on a skills basis, bear in mind that the major focus of government energy on the population front has been to talk of bringing the homing pigeons back. It isn't about skilled trades at all; it's about people of the right ethnicity. It isn't at all obvious that any provincial government apparently focusing on ethnicity and population will suddenly realize that a lot of the ex-pats don't have the skills needed for industrial construction and won't be able to acquire them within the required time frame.
The surest buzz kill or buzz drag in the boom time around the corner will be having a provincial government that focuses on things it doesn't do well, can do little about, or isn't about creating the environment in which the private sector can thrive.
And for those who have doubts about the private sector and the oil industry, just look at what the local private sector has been able to do. Ask Rob, or Fraser or Jerry just to name a few.
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From ctv.ca, a report on the growing outmigration of young anglophones from Quebec.
As in Newfoundland and Labrador, they are being lured by better economic opportunities elsewhere.
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CBC Radio is running a short series of reports on remittance workers. Those are people who maintain a permanent residence in Newfoundland and Labrador but who travel to other places, mostly Alberta, to earn a living.
If the CBC figures are accurate - upwards of 10,000 people earning pre-tax salaries of $100,000 a year - then remittance labourers are contributing to the Newfoundland and Labrador economy on a scale that rivals agriculture and the fishery.
Remittance labour is a common feature of the economy in the developing world. The figures for Newfoundland and Labrador would be also on a par with some countries at the low end of the scale in a 2003 World Bank study. Bond Papers noted the local history of remittance work in a post earlier in 2007.
The local workers involved in the Newfoundland and Labrador version of remittance labour include fishery workers displaced by changes in that industry. Others are older, skilled workers from the former paper plant at Stephenville or from the shipyard at Marystown. Neither of these groups will likely be doing the Big Commute for a long time. Either the projects they are working on will shut down or they will retire in Newfoundland and Labrador.
Others are young men and women who are attracted by high wages and steady work in their chosen fields. While the older workers are contributing to a localized economic boom in places without major industries - like Marystown or Stephenville -
Only a major and sustained series of local projects rivaling the work elsewhere will cause the younger workers to stay in the local labour force. Many are likely to settle outside of Newfoundland and Labrador.
In that context, it's interesting to recall that in 2003 Danny Williams campaigned on his commitment to "growing" the economy and creating jobs. He didn't do that, of course, as Bond Papers has noted several times, including in a reprint of a 2004 column from the original (pre-Cleary) incarnation of The Independent. The economic miracle of the past four years has been entirely due to the upsurge in world oil prices.
Essentially, the current progressive Conservative administration is following the same approach of its predecessors. The long-term is sacrificed to short-term expediency. The rise of highly-paid remittance work has served to both cushion the blow of outmigration and enable the provincial government to contribute disproportionately to the provincial economy in the process.
The current administration started out, supposedly, with a plan to control spending and deal with the burgeoning provincial debt. In reality, it did nothing about either. Spending has grown by 35% - well beyond the rate of inflation - and at the same time, the provincial direct and total debt is larger today than it was in 2003. Spending is forecast to increase, as is the debt.
Both oil prices and the remittance economy are shaky underpinnings for government spending and development of larger debt. Oil prices are historically subject to significant fluctuations. The remittance economy is limited either by the life of projects or the short time some of the workers have left to retirement.
Remittance work and the related subject of demographic changes in the province have been largely ignored by successive provincial governments in Newfoundland and Labrador and there is virtually no discussion of it in the public at large.
Perhaps the CBC report will change that.
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St. John's has been neglected, premier says
Terry Roberts
The Telegram (St. John's, NL)
September 24, 2007, p. A7
St. Anthony - Growth in the province's economy may be most noticeable in the capital city region, but Premier Danny Williams acknowledges St. John's has been "neglected" during his government's first four years in office.
Ironically, Williams made the admission during a campaign stop in rural Newfoundland Friday night, where cabinet minister Trevor Taylor is seeking re-election in the district of The Straits-White Bay North.
"St. John's will need work," Williams said before a crowd of some 150 people at a rally in St. Anthony.
The provincial government will invest about $440 million in infrastructure this year. It's part of a $2-billion infrastructure commitment.
But only a fraction of this year's budget will be spent in the St. John's metropolitan region.
It's part of a strategy by the Progressive Conservatives to modernize roads, education, health and telecommunications in rural areas in order to stimulate economic development.
Williams also complained Friday in St. Anthony that significant spending was needed because of many years of Liberal neglect.
During the 1990s, many Liberal heavyweights - Paul Dicks, Chuck Furey, Chris Decker and Brian Tobin - represented districts on the west coast and Northern Peninsula, yet the region was ignored, Williams said.
He believes allowing the infrastructure to crumble was part of a tacit strategy by the Liberals to make life more difficult for residents "so there is no reason to live there."
While the bulk of future investments will continue to be made in rural areas, Williams said St. John's will begin to see a large piece of the pie.
"There's going to come a point in time where we need to do some things within the city as well," he said.
Williams said there's a need to expand the Health Sciences Centre. He also committed to increased investments in long-term care facilities and schools in St. John's.
Williams' comments come at a time when the Liberals continue to rail against the Tories over what they claim is an abandonment of rural Newfoundland.
Williams said that's not true.
He said areas such as Clarenville, Bay Roberts and Deer Lake are beginning to boom. The Coast of Bays region, which has fallen on hard times in recent years, is also seeing growth in aquaculture.
"There's a misperception out there that things aren't good in rural Newfoundland and Labrador, when nothing is further from the truth. And in fact the irony is that there's still things that need to be done in St. John's," he said.
Find the latest entry here, which morphs quickly into a discussion about the high percentage of people leaving the province who hold university degrees and other specialized training. The chart, above, is from a slide presentation done in the mid 1990s. Note that university degree-holders have consistently been the largest proportion of migrants from Newfoundland and Labrador since the mid 1970s at least.