Fraser Institute survey ranks SK ahead of AL

Saskatchewan is now the preferred Canadian jurisdiction for oil exploration and development, according to the Fraser Institute's Global Petroleum Survey 2008.

The Global Petroleum Survey 2008, ranked Saskatchewan as the sixth most favourable jurisdiction out of 81 in terms of having low barriers to upstream oil and gas investment. Alberta was ranked 29th while British Columbia ranked 19th. Saskatchewan is the only Canadian province ranked among the top 10 jurisdictions.

And Newfoundland and Labrador?

Here are two quotes from exploration and development officials surveyed:

“We are bothered by political uncertainty, regulatory uncertainty, and business concerns regarding
government involvement and royalties.”

“The government needs to make a long-term commitment to create and enforce a stable business
structure.”

The funny thing with this survey is that if you take a look at the responses to specific questions on things like financial regimes and political stability, Newfoundland and Labrador gets positive numbers in every category.  The existing situation is either no deterrent to investment or a mild deterrent to investment. In security, this province ranks alongside Saskatchewan, British Columbia and Nova Scotia as providing a secure environment that is a stimulus to investment.  Newfoundland and Labrador ranked higher than Wyoming on security in this survey.

So if all that is the case, why isn't there more exploration investment?

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10 Euros to cross the Atlantic

It's hard to know which is worse.

RyanAir's chief executive officer making an entirely inappropriate comment at a Dusseldorf newser announcing the airline's trans-Atlantic service,  Bob LeDrew's title for his post on the newser, or the fact no one seemed astonished at the idea of getting across the Atlantic for a mere 10 Euros.

The discount airline is top of the list in passenger complaints, according to a report in the Irish Times. The whole issue has prompted a raft of Internet traffic which some are claiming is a brilliant marketing ploy by RyanAir. Looks more like a case of the marketing crew at Ryan having to scramble to defuse a bone-headed comment.

Anyway here's the video of the news conference and here a tip of the bowler to Bob who posted this originally.

No word yet on whether the provincial government is in negotiations to bring RyanAir's unique customer service concept to this side of the ocean. One can only imagine what that news conference would involve.

Forget-me-not

 

The official flower for Commemoration Day (July 1st).

 

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NLRC gets 30 days to sort out financials

NLRC has 30 days to sort out its financial affairs, a Supreme Court judge decided yesterday in St. John's.

NLRC sought court protection from its creditors last week, after SNC Lavalin sought payment of over $20 million it claims it's owed by the company proposing a second refinery for the Come by Chance area. SNC Lavalin subsidiary BAE NewPlan told the court payment on the company's design and engineering work stopped six months ago.

SNC Lavalin agreed to the reprieve but offered no public comment on its reasons.

Notice in the scrum [ram audio file] that managing director Brian Dalton uses  a couple of meaningless phrases to skip over the issue of the provincial government's role in funding his project.  No reporters probed the issue further.

There's also an interesting version of the recent corporate history. According to Dalton, the US market "closed very suddenly" earlier this year and as a consequence NLRC shifted direction elsewhere for investors. 

SNC Lavalin is a major contractor on the Lower Churchill development project.  Altius' proposal for an equity stake in the Lower Churchill project is reportedly still active.

The NLRC financial problems have had a dramatic impact on Altius, which owns almost 40% of the refinery venture.  Its stock plummeted last week on news of the bankruptcy proceedings but rebounded slightly with word of the stay. The NLRC - Altius connection figured prominently in many of the news stories running on the Tuesday court decision.

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Electricity prices to leap in NL on July 1

Electricity rates in the province will take a jump on July 1 as a result of a decision of the Public Utilities Board on Tuesday.

The average increase will be 5.9%, according to the PUB official statement.

No word yet on a benefit dinner to help the average consumer pay the increases.

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Fiscal bandwidth hog: the disproportionate growth of Knuckles 2

Strange as it might seem, the disproportionate growth of the Executive Council budget as a share of overall government spending is attributable to the Office of the Chief Information Officer.

The Executive Council went from 0.8% of the annual capital and current account budget to 1.6% in the space of two years, 2004 to 2006. It climbed up again in 2007 and 2008.

OCIO - or NLCS v. 2 - is the controller of all computer resources and personnel within government. Over 200 employees, mostly in St. John's, and a budget which is twice that of the entity to which it nominally belongs. Big Brother, it seems, is a fiscal bandwidth hog like few others.

To be fair, ICIO's budget includes the budgets that used to be distributed around various government departments; it's not surprising it is a huge cash sucker.

But to be even more fair, like all bureaucracies, OCIO will continue to accumulate staff and budget allocations using every advantage that comes from being the information controller for all government working directly for the most central of central agencies.

The cash levels and the staff allocations are - after all - the only performance indicators any bureaucracy worthy of the name actually understands.

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The disproportionate growth of central agencies

Going through Change and Challenge and working up the slides to accompany it prompted your humble e-scribbler to do a little comparison with the current day situation.

For example, there's a chart in Chapter Three (still in the works because of the slides) which shows each department as a percentage of overall capital and current account spending in the provincial budget.

A quick flip to the current budget showed the same break down of information. Make some minor adjustments for changes in some departments over the past 16 years and - vie-oh-la - there is a chart.

Bear in mind that in 1992, the provincial government's total budget was $3.5 billion. This year the combined capital and current account budget is over $6.5 billion.

For those who don't want to click and see a larger version, the chart shows figures - from left to right for - Education, Health, Justice, Social Services, Consolidated Fund Services (debt management), Executive Council, Finance, House of Assembly, Works, Services and Transportation, Development, Environment and Labour, Fisheries and Natural Resources.

Right away, you can see some fairly obvious things. Education takes up a relatively smaller portion of the budget today than it did 16 years ago. Health, on the other hand is obviously a larger share. Development - which from the current budget includes Business, INTRD and Tourism has dropped as a share of the budget. Natural Resources - mines and energy, forestry and agriculture has a larger share of the budget today than it did 16 years ago. CFS is significantly lower today as a share of the budget than it used to be.

Let's put some values on those numbers. CFS took up 15.3% of the 1992 budget; today it's 8.3%. health has gone from 25% of the budget to 36.2%. Development spending is half what is used to be, as a percentage of total budget spending. Fisheries is about one third what it used to be.

Take a look, though, at the two in the middle: Executive Council and Finance, the latter including Treasury Board. Those two are so-called central agencies. They co-ordinate or oversee the others.

Executive Council has gone from taking up one half of one percent of the 1992 budget to 1.8% today. Finance has gone from 1.5% to 4.0%. The growth in those two agencies dwarfs the relative growth of the others.

At this point, there's no way of determining what this means. It just becomes an interesting artifact; something to provoke further examination.

If the provincial government were following trends supposedly taking place elsewhere, such as in Saskatchewan by one account, one might expect to see something other than a trebling of spending on the Executive Council. Allowing line departments and deputy ministers to manage departments, co-ordinate with other departments on related issues and resolve inter-departmental disputes among themselves would require additional resources than what was available 16 years ago.

By the way, at this point you can pretty much rule out annual inflation as the cause of the growth here. Normal inflation wouldn't account for the change as a percentage over overall spending. Esecially in a situation where the budget has doubled, you'd pretty much have to increase spending on that particular agency to drive the share from 0.5% to 1.8% in 16 years. As a test, consider that the House of Assembly today has more statutory offices reporting to it directly than it did 16 years and yet its share of the budget is virtually the same.

On the face of it, the disproportionate growth of central agencies demonstrated by the table above does conform to Donald Savoie's description of government trends in his most recent book Court government and the collapse of accountability. Savoie contends, among other things, that since the 1970s the size of and influence of central agencies has grown. There are several reasons for the growth including increased centralization of decisionmaking in the first minister's office and the related cabinet office.

Leaving aside Savoie's provocative title, there seems to be some confirmation of his argument. The other point of view, from former Saskatchewan Premier Alan Blakeney (link above), doesn't match with what the table here appears to suggest.

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George Carlin: checking out the heavy mysteries from the other side

He made us think as much as he made us laugh.

George Carlin died Sunday of heart failure.

His most famous riff was probably the seven words you can never say on television, later expanded to a seemingly endless list of dirty words and phrases. Those links aren't work safe. They're funny.

For a guy who made a significant living reflecting on power, authority, religion and politics, his riff on the 10 Commandments might be the one that pulls all his beliefs together in one spot.

Pure coincidence, no doubt.

This one is a suitable tribute to one of the most influential comedians of the past hundred years. It's also work safe, that is unless your workplace is a church.

Change and Challenge: Chapter One - The Changes

The Changes

In the fall of 1990, the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador began the process of developing a strategic economic plan for the Province. This planning process involved three phases. During the first phase, government departments and agencies reviewed their activities, assessed the economy's strengths and weaknesses, and identified threats and opportunities within our existing resource industries as well as in our other strategic industries.

Further research and analysis concerning various sectors of the economy were undertaken during Phase 2, and a public consultation paper was published to give the people of the Province an opportunity to have a say in the vision, guiding principles and actions that have become the strategic economic plan. The Advisory Council on the Economy (ACE), an independent advisory group comprising representatives from business, labour and other groups, co-ordinated the release of nearly 11,000 copies of the consultation paper, and in the fall of 1991, public consultations were held in 16 locations across the Province.

Altogether, the public consultation process resulted in 15 public meetings, 15 meetings for formal presentations, 5 regional round tables, a provincial round table, and the submission of 261 written briefs. Government also held meetings with industry groups, and several submitted reports. A final report on the results of the consultation process was prepared by ACE and published in April 1992.

This process provided some sobering insights into the challenges the Province's economy must face and established that there is a broad consensus for change. Most people now realize that government spending is becoming increasingly limited, and that there must be less dependence on government transfers. Most also recognize that working together to establish a competitive economy is the key to strengthening our economic and social fabric.

Some of the fundamental changes that people said they wanted to see are:

• A change within people. There is a need for a renewed sense of pride, self-reliance and entrepreneurship. We must be outward-looking, enterprising and innovative, and to help bring about this change in attitude we will have to be better educated. During the consultation process, most people agreed that education is essential to our economic development.
• A change within governments. Governments (both politicians and the bureaucracy) must focus on long-term economic development and planning, while still responding to short-term problems and needs. Government programs and services must place a greater emphasis on the quality of the services provided and on the client. Changes in education, taxation and income security systems are also considered critical to our economic development.
• A change in relationships. To facilitate the necessary changes in the economy, new partnerships must be formed among governments, business, labour, academia and community groups. In particular, better co-ordination between the federal and provincial governments in the delivery of business and economic development programs is needed to eliminate duplication and to prevent confusion for those who use them.
  

The final phase - implementation, monitoring and evaluation -begins with the release of this strategic economic plan. The plan will be monitored and evaluated as it is put into effect, to ensure that it is working and that it is responding to new challenges and opportunities. Throughout this process, Government will continue to encourage public participation and to seek the advice of business, labour, academia, community groups and individuals throughout the Province.

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Chapter Two - The Challenges

Bond Papers stands for smart rss blogging

Show your support for blogs with this golf shirt, new from The Bond Store, in time for the summer.

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Province plugging project

[UPDATE! Premier Danny Williams and natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale will be meeting with unnamed investors on Sunday and Monday in Qatar trying to bail out the troubled NLRC refinery proposal, according to vocm.com.

The news release announcing the trip by the Premier and minister gave no duration for the entire visit, but referred to unspecified meetings in Qatar after the CNA campus graduation ceremony. it appears the trip was planned all along to include specific representations by provincial officials on behalf of a private sector proposal.

On a humorous side note, the government news release still produces a banner at the top of your Internet browser referring to a summer basketball camp, four days after Bond papers first pointed out the programming SNAFU.]

Natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale told the Telegram that she and Premier Danny Williams are promoting the troubled NLRC refinery project to potential investors during their trip to the Middle East.

"Part of what we are doing over here is looking for new investments and we'll be promoting the refinery in terms of attracting a partner, so hopefully this project's going to continue".

Last week, NLRC director Brian Dalton told an oil and gas industry conference in St. John's that NLRC was actively seeking investment in several areas of the world, including the Middle East, for the stalled project.

NLRC sought court protection from creditors on Friday. SNC Lavalin is seeking approximately $20 million in unpaid fees for engineering and design work done by the consulting firm for the refinery proposal.

In court documents filed Thursday, SNC Lavalin subsidiary BAE-Newplan alleges "NLRC is looking to sell the project without 'independent oversight, review and approval' by unsecured creditors, and made a questionable security arrangement with a related company."

NLRC involves Altius and several European investors in a proposal to build a 300,000 barrel per day refinery in northern Placentia Bay, Newfoundland.

Altius is involved in several mineral and energy developments in Newfoundland and Labrador and elsewhere.

The company lists a Lower Churchill equity stake as one of the projects it is actively pursuing.

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NLRC seeks bankruptcy protection

Newfoundland and Labrador Refining Corporation, proponents of a 300,000 barrel per day heavy sour crude refinery for Placentia Bay are seeking court protection against creditors.

One of the creditors, SNC Lavalin, served notice on Thursday that it was seeking a court declaration that NLRC was bankrupt.

In a statement issued Friday, NLRC said:

NLRC management is currently working with its advisors to determine the optimum method of restructuring, which may include the sale of its assets. A further update will be provided at a later date once key decisions are made.

Earlier this week, NLRC director Brian Dalton told the annual NOIA oil and gas conference that the company was seeking investors in the Middle East, India and the Far East.

The refinery project has been in trouble for some time.

NLRC acknowledged in March 2008 that it had been unsuccessful in finding investors in the United States. Comments at the time were similar to ones given this week to CBC News:

Dalton said the company's problems with financing are "due to the deterioration of global capital markets."

By contrast, as Bond Papers previously noted, Dalton told the Financial Post in April 2007 that the project would only succeed if the company could find one major oil player.

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Related:

"Oh to be in the Gulf now that the cash is in bloom" in which Danny Williams, Kathy Dunderdale, Rodney Macdonald and Gary Lunn all head to the Middle East around the same time.

"Refinery marginalia" (October 2006) which notes, among other things the similarity between a provincial government news release and one issued by NLRC.

"Curious refinery logic" (October 2006)

"Chances of second refinery in NL more remote" (October 2006)

"Two degrees of separation revisited" (August 2006) Altius, Aurora, Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro, Brian Dalton, Dean Macdonald, Danny Williams.

At the same time, Altius is also pursuing a feasibility study on a second refinery in the Come by Chance area. The study was announced in February by Premier Danny Williams and then-energy minister Ed Byrne. The announcement was highly unusual since government [apparently - ed.] played no role in the [apparently - ed.] entirely private venture.

Change and Challenge: a strategic economic plan for Newfoundland and Labrador, Introduction

When it was released 16 years ago this month, Change and Challenge marked a departure in the provincial government's approach to economic development and diversification. The document subtitled "a strategic economic plan for Newfoundland and Labrador" laid out a long term approach to diversifying the provincial economy. It called for a transformation of culture, away from a dependence on government initiatives and government control and toward one based on individual initiative and private-sector entrepreneurship.

The plan did not promise easy answers, nor did it fixate on one sector of the economy or on large megaprojects. Change and Challenge represented the result of a long development process that was itself crucial. The long period of discussion and consultation both inside and outside government helped to develop a consensus among those who took part in the discussions.

Development of the plan lay with a economic planning group, appointed by cabinet in the summer of 1990 under the chairmanship of the premier's chief of staff, Edsel Bonnell. The group brought together a diverse set of individuals with an equally diverse set of ideas. There were within the group contending ideas, as former chairman of the Economic Recovery Commission Doug House describes in his book Against the tide.

The process was not an easy one but the fruits of the group's labour proved substantial. It's echoes can be seen in government policy four administrations after it first appeared, even if the old fixation on resource megaprojects and government paternalism in all spheres has come to fill the vision of policy makers once again.

Unfortunately Change and Challenge has not been available online before now. When it first appeared the Internet was in its infancy locally and so no electronic version was produced.

To overcome that problem and to mark the anniversary of this historic achievement, Bond Papers will present the strategic economic plan, chapter by chapter, over the next several days. The original document contains charts and graphs, all of which were printed in black and white as a cost-saving measure. They are recreated here in colour, where possible. Other than that there have been no changes to the content.

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Change and Challenge:
a strategic economic plan for Newfoundland and Labrador
June 1992

A Living Document

Foreword by Premier Clyde K. Wells

On behalf of the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, I am pleased to present the Strategic Economic Plan which will determine the focus and direction of the Province's future economic development activity.

This document is the result of nearly two years of research, analysis and public consultation by Government. On behalf of my colleagues in Cabinet, I wish to express our gratitude to the Advisory Council on the Economy for conducting and evaluating the public consultation process; to the 261 organizations and individuals who submitted formal briefs and to the many hundreds of people who participated in regional discussions; to the private sector working groups from specific industries who provided valuable background information and recommendations; to the Economic Recovery Commission and Enterprise Newfoundland and Labrador for their significant participation in the entire planning process; and to the many Government officials from various departments and agencies who worked diligently and effectively in the research, evaluation, and compilation of an enormous amount of economic data.

The Strategic Economic Plan, in its final form, is the synthesis of hundreds of other documents, including statistical reference works, reports, working papers, studies, and briefs. The objective of the Cabinet working group of senior officials (the Economic Planning Group) was to produce a final document that would be as succinct as possible without sacrificing essential supporting data or background material.

This is an Action Plan. The 134 action items in this document are not merely philosophical observations or even statements of intent; they are commitments by Government based on specific decisions of Cabinet. These decisions were made carefully, taking into account the representations made by special interest groups and the general public, and always in the light of our fiscal capacity to support desired economic initiatives. They are presented here in the context and sequence of the plan itself, and not in any particular order of priority.

Implementation of the Strategic Economic Plan has already begun. Many initiatives were undertaken during the process of preparing the document. Others will start with the announcement and release of the Plan, but there are some programs which cannot be ready for implementation for months or even years to come. The Plan does not promise overnight miracles, but establishes the basis for economic recovery through sound, effective, and focused long-term planning. This is the only approach that can have credibility, because the people of Newfoundland and Labrador indicated clearly in the public consultation process that they would not take seriously any schemes that promised "quick fixes" or band-aid solutions to our structural problems. Indeed, in the pages which follow it will be shown that even if the province's growth doubled the national rate every year, it would take 20 years of such economic performance simply to reach the Canadian average.

Finally, this document is not the end of the strategic planning process for Newfoundland and Labrador; rather, it is just the beginning. We live in a constantly changing global economic environment, and every day brings new challenges and new opportunities. Our economic strategy must always be flexible enough to accommodate change and to accept challenge.

Change & Challenge is, therefore, a living document for the Newfoundland and Labrador economy in the latter years of the 20th century and beyond 2000. It is a plan prepared not just by government and business, but by the people of every region of the Province. That is what gives it the best prospect of success in charting the course for economic recovery and future prosperity.

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Chapter One - The Changes

Tube lawyers

This week's provincial news brought reference to Perry Mason.

For those too young to remember, Perry Mason was a fictional defence attorney, played superbly by Canadian actor Raymond Burr. The weekly series ran from 1957 to 1966 and was reborn as made-for-television movies until 1993. Almost invariably Mason was able to beat his opponent, district attorny Hamilton Burger, by showing that someone other than Mason's client was guilty of murder. Mason didn't just do his thing in court: he solved the crime by bringing the real criminal to justice with help from Della Street and investigator Paul Drake.

If the stories weren't good enough for you, the show had one of the coolest themes of any television show, as this clip from the second season demonstrates.



For another generation, there was Ben Matlock. Southern charm. Southern cool music and the irresistable Andy Griffith. The show was drama leavened with comedy.



Then there's Law and Order. Say television lawyer and more television viewers across North America are likely to think of Jack McCoy than Perry Mason. Played by Sam Waterston, McCoy epitomizes what many people would like to think is the kind of person serving as the local prosecutor. A tough, relentless, principled guy outwitting the crook's hired guns, McCoy's gone too far at times but his heart always seems to be driven by a passion for justice.



Metaphors can be useful to help someone understand a point you are trying to make. Pick the one that resonates with the audience and your job is done. if the audience's frame of reference is already somewhere else, a poorly chosen metaphor can undermine an argument no matter how good it might seem to you.

Still, none of this is real. They're all just damn entertaining shows.

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Chief of Staff: "I can't recall"

It's not the one you think it is.

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"Fair use": an American cheat sheet

It's free and it applies to the United States, but it's still worth a look.

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Associated Press, bloggers and the "fair use" concept

Associated Press (AP) is in the middle of a controversy over its recently announced policy requiring Internet sites to pay the news service for printing excerpts of its stories even in cases where the excerpt is as little as five words long.

The issue centres on copyright and contending definitions of what constitutes "fair use". Until now, "fair use" has allowed bloggers and others to use short extracts from AP news stories. In the case which triggered the spat, links to the original AP story were provided. AP will now expect payment for each use.

As Standford University Library's website notes, fair use is based on the belief that individuals may freely use portions of copyrighted materials for commentary and criticism. That's a paraphrase, by the way; if you want the full text please follow the link provided. It's important to note at this juncture that there are some differences in Canadian and American copyright law, but the concepts of "fair use" or "fair dealing" are generally similar.

You'll see plenty of quoting done at Bond Papers, typically to illustrate a point and to give proper credit to the source of the original quote or idea. The point is not to claim credit for someone else's ideas or words nor is the idea to deny any sort of financial gain due to a copyright holder for the sale of the rights to reproduce the work.

On occasions in the past, Bond Papers provided full articles and in one case the copyright holder protested. Since the copyright holder was absolutely right in its contention that the practice infringed on its copyright, the practice stopped. Short excerpts are used and in all cases, a link to the original, full text is provided. There was no demand to remove the old materials but were the same copyright holder to make the request, compliance would be forthcoming.

It's really pretty simple, in that respect.

Likewise, Bond Papers has pretty much eliminated the use of images to illustrate posts since, even though the images may be widely available through the Internet, and even though wordmarks or other efforts were made to indicate the source of the image, the likelihood of violating copyright outweighed the value of the image. If Bond Papers was a commerical site, we could factor in payments to rights holders as part of the cost of doing business. Since the site doesn't generate any revenue, it's simply easier not to use other people's work unless there is some overwhelmingly positive benefit from doing so. Then we'd deal with the issue of seeking permission.

Changes to the copyright law have turned out to be a divisive issue in Canada. Michael Geist is one of many in Canada who are criticizing Bill C-61, a bill to change the existing copyright law in Canada. Local photographer Greg Locke recently wrote about the benefit to professional photographers of the bill. Locke notes that the bill finally puts image creators on the same copyright footing as other creative people. google the terms and names used in this paragraph and you'll find an endless stream of news coverage and commentary on the subject.

When Bond Papers started, the idea of quoting bits of articles or stories and providing links reflected nothing more than the age old academic practice of citation. Fair use allowed for the use of an idea, provided proper credit was given and provided that some reference was offere dto enable a reader to check for himself or herself that what was attributed to an individual was actually what the individual said.

That practice remains and until someone wipes out that notion of fair use - there's no sign of that yet - then that's what the practice around these parts will be.

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Oh to be in the Gulf, now that the cash is in bloom

Persian Gulf that is.

Qatar:

Danny and Kathy. (unspecified cash talks related to energy developments) When you click the link, note the top of your browser reads "Sport Newfoundland and Labrador - Volleyball Summer Camps 2008.

Rodney. (Hunting for gas)

Saudi Arabia:

Gary. (International meeting on high oil prices.)

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When news isn't news but the real news isn't reported

One of the things that keeps your humble e-scribbler entertained during the drizzly, foggy nights of capelin weather is comparing news reports.

On Tuesday, there was Premier Danny Williams' opening remarks to the annual NOIA oil and gas conference in St. John's.

CBC was hyping the thing despite there being no concrete evidence whatsoever that Williams was even vaguely contemplating announcing the conclusion of Hebron deal. The reasons behind the hype-fest are as inscrutable as the real reasons for the whole Andy to the CNLOPB or Andy to the PUB thing.

CBC even gifted the Premier with 15 minutes of free province-wide airtime right before the 9:00 work whistle started so that he could deliver a yawner of a stock speech. He didn't ask for it; they gave it willingly and based on absolutely squat in the way of concrete information.

There were no hotel spaces booked for the launch. No sign of print work or any of the other things that would happen if there was going to be a major announcement of a final and binding agreement between the provincial energy company and the oil companies on Hebron.

And if the absence of all those usual indicators wasn't enough, and just to make it overwhelmingly clear, bear in mind that no less a personage than the Premier himself poured cold water over the whole idea of a Hebron announcement coming in his in his Tuesday remarks.

"I can't be overly optimistic that we will achieve it by next week," said Williams on Friday, but said a 25-per cent chance is a fair statement that an announcement will come next week. "I can tell you, though, that I'm extremely confident that this is going to get done in reasonable time frame.".

Williams said the confidentiality part of the agreement is the biggest hold up, especially now that the province owns an equity stake in Hebron.

That was the Telly version. Other media carried similar remarks either from the Premier or from his spokesperson who used, one must note the exact same words about the percentage chance of an announcement.

So then came the speech and the Premier's predictions were dead on.

With the Hebron speculation proven hollow, both CBC and the Telegram used the possibility of a new development application for Hibernia South to lede their stories on the speech. The timeline of that issue given by the Premier could be another post, but let's stick with Hebron.

In the scrum, the Premier was asked about the negotiations. He gave a slightly different version of the negotiations than we've heard before, saying that at one point he'd anticipated a deal by the first of April.

Well, when the memorandum of understanding was released, the final legal agreements were expected within a "few months." When the end of the year came, the deal date was moved to February.

April wasn't discussed publicly but at one point in the spring, the Premier said the whole thing was slow because the oil companies' approval processes weren't as swift as those of the provincial government.

The expected date for a deal was June. Now it's the first week of August. Anyone notice the "two months hence" pattern?

Anyway...

Note the comment in the scrum about about the current talks and what's being discussed on Hebron.

Confidentiality was dealt with "some time ago."

No news stories have mentioned that discrepancy and it isn't a small one. In fact, it leads you to the issues mentioned by the oil companies in a Financial Post story last week. They talked about questions about how much of the work would be done in Newfoundland and Labrador, how the province would pay for its share of the costs and how the oil companies will shift around their shares to give a few to the province's energy company.

No one in the local patch has questioned whether a Hebron deal would be finalized. They've known the deal would have to get done since the MOU was announced last August.

How much work gets done in this province - forget the GBS because that was a given before talks broke off in 2006 - is an issue that the local oil industry is extremely concerned about.

If you skip past the superficial comments and the hype and recognize the obvious disinformation about the confidentiality portion of the deal, you might start to wonder if the oil companies are concerned about whether the local labour market can handle the Hebron project what with most of the province's skilled tradesmen off in Alberta.

They wouldn't want to be tied to performance commitments the local labour market can't keep unless the provincial government was prepared to either relax the local benefits provisions or step in a share the increased costs of doing work locally and shipping in the workers to do it from Heaven knows where. After all, the oil companies want the job done quickly, cheaply and on time. If they have to meet political targets - versus business ones - they'd like to offload those on someone else and who better, in their minds, than the energy company owned by the people who are pushing for the political targets?

If that's what the hang-up in Hebron talks is really all about, that would be a significant conundrum for the provincial government and it would certainly cover off two of the three items the industry representatives mentioned to the Financial Post.

A deal will get done, but if that's the sort of thing that is currently holding things up, it's a major point of disagreement. We may not see a deal for a few months beyond August.

Overall, though, it's interesting to examine the news because sometimes what's reported as news isn't real news at all. There's was no likelihood of a Hebron deal this week and the Premier said so.

Sometimes, the real story is missed entirely even when it's right in front of everyone's face. It didn't make it into the first news cycle. As with the negotiations, let's see what tomorrow brings.

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Resist the hype

or is it the spin about a possible Hebron deal being announced this morning.

Not gonna happen.

Too much left to negotiate.

But that's not to say the Premier won't be saying positive things about Hebron moving along and there being discussions about possibly getting the Hibernia South extensions underway.

Nothing concrete or finalised, mind you.

Just positive, generic words.

And that's all they are.

Words.

Only the action counts, and that's the action of pen scribbling across bottom of page.

If there's no news conference scheduled or even under discussion, all the rest is hype and spin. Both are just synonyms for bullsh*t.

Now it's interesting to speculate why one news organization is pushing something that no one in the industry is expecting, so here's a simple proposition for the gang at CBC:

five Bond Bucks - the notional currency around these parts - says the only thing we'll hear from Danny Williams on Tuesday morning are vague platitudes.

Any takers?

0915 Update: 15 minutes of free province-wide radio airtime to deliver... the most generic, stock off-the-shelf government energy speech yet.

The only variation from the stock government energy speech? The sentence right at the beginning that said there was no announcement and, indeed no news on Hebron and Hibernia South.

The kernel of news buried in it? The Lower Churchill project has already been sanctioned. Money will be spent and the only thing that will stop it is, well, nothing.

-srbp-