The owners of Humber Valley Resort sought and obtained court protection for at least 30 days in order to develop a financial reorganization plan to creditors.
Only three weeks ago, the resort owners announced a major restructuring.
The resort owners are reportedly in discussions with government, as they have been apparently since last year, seeking some form of government financial support.
-srbp-
So which Provincial Conservatives are gonna sign on to this campaign?
The premier's apparently got answers from all his caucus and only one is abstaining from any involvement.
-srbp-
A federal Conservative statement hot off the e-mail:
Minister Hearn Challenges Premier Williams To Allow Caucus to Campaign for Conservatives
The Honourable Loyola Hearn, Minister of Fisheries and Oceans and Minister Responsible for Newfoundland and Labrador, today issued the following statement:
Today Premier Williams said he would not threaten any MHAs to adopt his position of ABC in the next federal campaign.
My comments in local media were based on a growing number of calls we have received from concerned caucus members and Progressive Conservative staffers who used exactly that that phrase. They felt there was a clear expectation that they needed to publicly campaign for ABC, even if they didn't agree with it, or there was a threat to their career advancement within the Williams government.
If the Premier's statement is true, and he wishes to let democracy take its course, will he send another e-mail to his caucus and clarify that there is no threat? Will he tell them he means it when he says members are free to do whatever they believe is in the best interests of their districts -- even if that means campaigning for Conservative candidates at the federal level?
If there is no threat, will the Premier commit publicly that there will be no action taken against MHAs who choose to volunteer for Conservative Party of Canada?
He can put this issue to rest by sending another memo to caucus right away.
As your humble e-scribbler already maintained, Hearn is a scrappy silverback politician. Experienced, used to being dominant, savvy and fully of inherent political strength just like the biggest gorilla in a family group.
He'll tolerate nonsense for a while but at some point he'll be ready to rip apart any challenger.
Hearn's been working the local media this Friday before the writ drops and his language is designed to go right at the heart of the so-called ABC campaign.
With the comment on leaks a couple of days ago, Hearn and his federal Conservative brethren have already shown they know how to campaign hard when they need to and, in the caucus leak story, set the other guys to constantly responding instead of setting the agenda. Hearn's release today will increase the pressure and counts as another shift in the political agenda.
If this campaign keeps going with the same intensity, the repercussions will be felt in provincial politics.
-srbp-
1. The latest political scuttlebutt has Loyola Sullivan out of the country and not taking the Prime Minister's calls. As it stands now, incumbent Avalon member of parliament Fabian Manning is the only federal Conservative with any profile standing for election in the province in the fall general election.
2. Former newspaper editor Ryan Cleary and Sierra Club activist Fred Winsor will be squaring off for the New Democrat nomination in St. John's South-Mount Pearl.
3. For those wondering about the Liberals, all their candidates are in place.
4. From the "Nothing spells election..." file, nothing can keep politicians from announcing public cash, not even an ABCDLMNOPQ Family Feud.
5. From the "Surreal Life" file, the cash announcements even include a joint one involving federal Conservative Fabian Manning.
-srbp-
In 1989, a younger Danny Williams campaigned to make Loyola Hearn premier of the province.
Almost 20 years later, the feud between the two Conservatives - one provincial and federal - is as vicious as a Hollywood divorce.
Hearn called some of Williams' rhetoric both "truth-twisting" and "underhanded."
Hearn said worse in another place as noted by CBC in its coverage of the Premier's scrum:
Williams was reacting Friday to comments Hearn made on a public call-in show after his Thursday announcement, calling the premier a dictator and accusing him of being "as gutless as a capelin."
"As well, if anyone would recognize a dictator he certainly worked for one, so he'd know a dictator I can guarantee ya," Williams said.
-srbp-
Steve Kent was quick off the mark on Thursday to pledge his unswerving, unstinting and constant loyalty to the ABC cause.
Yes, the Family Feud is on.
CBC's David Cochrane reported this evening that the Premier was so unsettled by a recent blog post at Meeker on Media that he fired off an e-mail demanding government caucus members declare their support for the Feud and indicate which candidate they would be supporting.
The post, based on comments by Loyola Hearn's communications director, suggested there were leaks inside the Tory caucus heading to Hearn and that not all Provincial Conservatives were comfortable going to war against their kith and kin. The post also indicated that the Premier and his team were organizing a trademark astroturf campaign.
Hearing Kent of the Williams Conservatives commit to defeat the "Harper Conservatives" in the context of the Premier's e-mail only serves to confirm the background to the Meeker post and other commentaries.
First, the e-mail is a clear signal that not only are there Provincial Conservatives who are not happy with the Family Feud, the premier himself is so conscious of it - and worried about it - that he is looking for declarations of loyalty.
Second, Kent's use of the talking point "Harper Conservatives" invites the obvious conclusion that the Family Feud merely pits the Harper Conservatives against the Williams Conservatives, a phrase that only slightly morphs the "Williams Government" phrase so popular in official government news releases.
Third, having Kent pledging to campaign throughout his district against the federal Conservatives is only fitting for what is - essentially - an internal spat among people on the same end of the political spectrum. Only a decade ago, Kent was being courted by and apparently considered running for the old Reform/Alliance Party.
One could almost hear Kent's talking points as a bizarre mix of 1984 and Pogo:
Mount Pearl has always been at war with Eastasia.
We have found the enemy and they is us.
-srbp-
1. Connie organizers are working hard to get Tom Rideout in St. John's East.
2. Hearn is out but Loyola "Rainman" Sullivan is in to replace him.
3. Reg Anstey will declare for the NDP in St. John's South.
4. Jack Harris...oh that never was scuttlebutt any way.
-srbp-
Over at Geoff Meeker's blog, his post on a supposed leak from inside the Provincial Conservative caucus has brought out a self-described chauvinist doing as any imitator of Nicholas Chauvin might do.
It can be pretty funny stuff if you just read what's on the page.
Here's a summary of the discussion thus far:
According to PW, before the PM goes to see the GG, ODP needs to define ABC PDQ so things aren't FUBAR because the people of NL will not know how to X their ballot in the GE in OCT unless they hear HMV, likely on CBC, NTV, VOCM or for VIPs via TXT or PIN on RIM.
The ABC, you may recall, is supposed to KO SH and the CPC everywhere in CDA from NL to BC because they were NSF on the BP to ODP's L2S in the 06 GE. There's been no DND in HVGB or new HMP in HG, represented in the HOA by the AG.
Before now, ODP DW and SH were BFF.
ABC would also KO LH, the CPC MDFO in the GOC, who represents SJSMP in the HOC, and keep him out of the PCO in NCR but right now he is MIA.
But it's not just an ABC, according to PW who plugs his blog, PAP, in his comments on GM's MOM.
It's ABC...D.
And worse than that PC MHAs will be PO'ed at voting for WN, SC, SA and other LPC ESP JF, who was a CM for BT and RG when they were ODP before DW.
But JH of the NDP in SJE is OK with ODP DW.
The only letter missing thus far in PW's alphabet folly "Z ", but undoubtedly someone is working on that rogue letter and will send it along ASAP.
At this point, everyone is likely LOL and well they should be WRT the whole ABC/FF thing.
MW of ON can rest easy, though.
You don't need a BA, MA or PHD from MUN to spot the BS of PW and the FF.
Now YHE-S must go to the ER and see a GP because this whole thing is causing MEGO.
K?
-srbp-
St. John's Sport and Entertainment, the municipally-owned corporation that runs Mile One Stadium, known to some as the Wells-Coombs Memorial Money Pit is reported to have posted a surplus or even a profit.
Read a bit more closely and you'll see the devil in the details.
Taxpayers of St. John's are pumping almost $2.0 million into the thing as a subsidy.
That supposed surplus of $110,000 is actually a deficit of almost $2.0 million.
There'll be no right-sizing Mile One until the subsidy is down-sized, rather than up-sized as Council has done since 2006.
-srbp-
The Family Feud could get infinitely more entertaining if local political rumours hold true.
Former Provincial Conservative Premier Tom Rideout is looking at running for the federal Conservatives according to CBC's David Cochrane. When Rideout quit Danny Williams' cabinet a couple of months ago, Bond Papers had Rideout looking at a run against incumbent Liberal member of parliament Scott Simms in central Newfoundland.
The specific riding isn't as important as the idea of the guy who ran through the 1989 provincial general election like the love child of Speverend Rooner and Mrs. Malaprop running for the federal Conservatives in the fall federal election.
Rideout's departure from provincial politics was never just about a million dollars of roadwork, despite what some people would have you believe. There's quite obviously some considerable animosity between Rideout and Williams, likely dating back to Rideout's leadership win in 1989.
Rideout - who served in key roles in the Williams administration - is in a position to know where more than a few bodies are buried in the Provincial Conservative backyard. He'd also likely attract a fair bit of support from long-time Provincial Conservative voters and backroom workers who are dissatisfied with the internal party strife resulting from the ongoing Anything But Conservative campaign, as the Family Feud is officially known.
The scrappy veteran campaigner would also be inclined to smack back at any attacks from his former Provincial Conservative caucus and cabinet mates.
Even if Rideout worked behind the scenes or as a spokesperson for the federal Conservatives in the province, the Family Feud could turn out to be the surprise hit of the fall political season. The Family Feud likely won't shift too many votes, but it would be political theatre of the kind the province hasn't seen in years.
-srbp-
That's what your humble e-scribbler thought too, until he bothered to check the facts.
Turns out the seat currently held by Norman Doyle has voted other than Blue a fair bit since 1949.
| Years | MP | Party |
| 1949-1953 | Gordon Higgins | Progressive Conservative |
| 1953-1957 | Allan Fraser | Liberal |
| 1957-1963 | Jim McGrath | Progressive Conservative |
| 1963-1968 | Joseph O'Keefe | Liberal |
| 1968-1986 | Jim McGrath | Progressive Conservative |
| 1987-1988 | Jack Harris | New Democratic Party |
| 1988-1993 | Ross Reid | Progressive Conservative |
| 1993-1997 | Bonnie Hickey | Liberal |
| 1997-2008 | Norman Doyle | Conservative |
Jim McGrath racked up the biggest margins in previous elections, capturing over 70% of votes cast in some elections.
If you want to check for yourself, follow the summary at Wikipaedia down to the bottom. The data at the Wikipaedia entry is taken directly from Elections Canada and Library of Parliament results.
-srbp-
Bond Papers readers are no doubt shocked at the very thought, but it seems to be true.
They may even be struck speechless at the very idea.
The Provincial Conservatives are organizing astroturf as part of the Family Feud. That's according to some information Geoff Meeker obtained courtesy of Loyola Hearn's office, whose spokesman conveyed it this way:
“We were contacted late last week by a member of the provincial PC caucus, who told us that they were contacted by someone in the premier’s office, asking all ministers and MHAs to find at least four people in their ridings who they can call upon to put their names to letters to the editor, or to put calls in to Open Line shows, to give the appearance that the ABC campaign is away more ‘grass roots’ than perhaps what it is. These calls are happening during business hours from someone in the premier’s office, though I won’t get into who.”
The piece contains another claim destined to leave people truly dumbfounded: the astroturf campaign is already underway.
Not like people haven't been writing blog posts and calling open line shows expressing their sedimental solidarity with the New Democrats, talking up the positive features of the Family Feud and condemning Stephen Harper at every opportunity.
-srbp-
Air Canada Jazz recently announced the airline will be removing passenger life vests from their flights.
The move is aimed at reducing weight on aircraft and thereby reducing fuel consumption. There's a Transport Canada regulation making life vests mandatory on flights 50 nautical miles from shore and since Jazz doesn't typically fly that far from land, they won't be breaking the rules. On routes where they did get more than 50 miles out, the airline plans to adjust the route to bring them within the limit.
Incidentally, the 50 mile run is there since Transport Canada figures that an aircraft at altitude and no more than 50 nautical miles from shore can glide to a landmass if need be.
Some are very upset, claiming it's a safety risk.
Some of the local loons are using it as yet another example of how people upalong don't give a damn about Newfoundlanders.
That generates nothing more than a big sigh.
As someone who has kept track of aviation issues for a fair while, your humble e-scribbler had a hard time recalling the last time a commercial airliner ditched, let alone successfully.
There have been a few spectacular crashes in which the aircraft was pretty far from in control which, by the way would be pretty much the only time when a life vest would be of any demonstrable use beyond helping to find your remains.
Turns out that since 1970 there haven't been any such landings on water anywhere on the planet by commercial airliners according to the guys at Freakonomics. 150 million commercial airline flights and 15 billion passengers and not a single person has been able to use the 15 second instruction (30 secs in bilingual Canada) let alone use the vest.
It's interesting to see that in all the comments on this two year old article, there isn't one that contradicts the life vest/water landing thesis. Not one. Even on one aviation forum, the contributors had a hard time coming up with a contemporary ditching story in which the passengers would have been able to don life vests ahead of the time the aircraft hit the water.
What you do see are a couple of examples of aircraft on final approach landing short of the runway which, just by happenstance, abutts a body of water. It's highly unlikely any of those passengers did anything beyond head for the nearest exit once they got over the shock of the crash.
Interesting that Air Canada doesn't seem to have used the safety issue very much if at all in defence of its decision.
They'd have a pretty powerful argument or so it seems.
-srbp-
“It’s the strangest thing. It takes me back to my Catholic days when you go to confession. We’re getting these people walking up and whispering to us, ‘I’m a provincial Progressive Conservative, but I’m also a federal Conservative,”’ he said.
That's pretty much what they did in 2004, the last time the provincial Conservative leader had a bit of a disagreement with his federal brother.
“They (Tory voters) don’t need to scream it out loud, they just need to mark their X on the ballot.”
Eats, shoots and leaves update:
There are typos.
Untied instead of united? That's a typographical error in which letters are tapped out of sequence.
Then there are spelling problems. Typing sediment when you meant sentiment. Or tudor when you meant tutor.
No matter how you try and explain those, there is no way that those misuses of words are a function of fingers hitting the wrong keys.
Then, there are problems with punctuation.
Turns out that the headline on the story linked above is the original Canadian Press headline.
Almost.
The CP version had a colon between the word "Ontario" and the word "commentator". The colon suggests that the words before it are a paraphrase of a comment made by the commentator.
In this instance, there's a slight difference to the two headlines given the punctuation variation.
The Telly headline suggests that the commentator from Ontario isn't impressed. That's true, if you read the story, but the CP version gives the sense of the comments in the story story, namely that voters in Ontario won't be impressed.
All of this may only bother a handful, but when you are trying to communicate an idea clearly, everything from spelling to punctuation to verb tense to getting the words in the right order can affect what idea the reader sees.
For those who are troubled by punctuation, for those who do not know the difference between a colon and a semi-colon, there is help:
Your humble e-scribbler has looked for this book in a local bookshop for some time now. The heavens aligned recently and delivered it at a second-hand bookstore in Mount Pearl, in pristine condition and for only a handful of bucks.
Lynne Truss gives a master class in punctuation using simple sentences and plenty of humour.
What more could you ask for?
More than they evidently know.
The guy in the photo is the former javelin catcher for Paul Martin.
The guy who made the comments about the glory of fixed election dates is one of Stephen Harper's gang who are about to toss aside the glories of fixed election dates they championed.
They don't look anything alike.
-srbp-
Just because it hasn't been in the news lately doesn't mean that the Memorial University crisis is not simmering away beneath the surface.
You know that because Pam Frampton has another column this week which starts out with an e-mail exchange with the Premier's Office.
The open and accountable Premier's publicity department doesn't think that further comment on the presidential search would be in Memorial's interest.
When she went looking for a few comments from the Premier - likely to come via e-mail - Pam got the usual response from the Blackberry that runs government's publicity machine: not interested.
If it weren't for opposable thumbs, this administration would not be able to carry out its media relations policy:
The interview is ducked.
Declined.
Avoided.
So as not to have to give an actual answer or provide information.
It is the Blackberry version of government testimony at Cameron. The talking points have to set a new record for brevity: "I can't recall."
Rarely has the functioning of human society been so dependent on something monkeys could do.
In order to tell some reporter to sod off, one does not need the gift of speech.
One need only be able to click one's thumbs on some small keys in a certain sequence.
One need not have the ability to understand complex or abstract concepts, like the value of sustaining mutually beneficial human relationships through direct voice contact. [The concept of zero, as in the amount of useful information conveyed by the average government publicist, would not being among those unknown ideas. That's about the only abstraction involved.]
And therein lies the larger problem here. While none inside the Confederation Building likely see it, this is a sign of the full-on rot which takes hold in all administrations after a certain point.
They become so convinced of their own immense value to the evolution of the species. They start to think that that their claims issued in written "statements" are not merely profound but universally true; like the Bible but better somehow.
As they grow weary of the mortals with whom they must deal each day, they start to dismiss them as cavalierly as Louis or Marie ever did.
In the last couple of years of the Peckford era, people wondered if the premier's media guy existed. In the days before Blackberry kiss-offs, he just stopped returning phone calls from reporters.
Period.
Joe Smallwood coasted along on the daily stops at voice of the cabinet minister. Down with window, in comes microphone. Blather for a few minutes and then drive off hopefully after reporter got arm back out of window.
The people in these august positions do not realise what is happening of course. Their delusion is so complete that they neither see nor care to see the slow erosion of everything that supports them.
They carry on with petty political feuds among themselves, as if these things were important, let alone as important as what they were supposed to be focusing on. In the process, supporters, friends and sometimes even family walk away.
The whole apparatus of a particular administration can be propped up by nothing more substantive than a CRA poll. To those at the heights, it appears as though the whole thing is magically floating, held aloft by the righteousness of whatever it is they are doing. They imagine a giant concrete base because they cannot see the real base: two guys lashing broom handles together with duct tape.
You see, governments rarely fall apart before your eyes. They don't just up and fall in on themselves one day. There is no final cataclysmic destruction.
They rot.
They decay.
They erode.
There is never anything truly spectacular except at the end when someone from another party finally pushes the whole mess over in a heap of ash. By then, no one really cares any more.
Until then, there are the slights. There are the dismissals. There are broken promises. There are the frustrations and in some cases the outright insults that all remove another layer of the social bonds on which a political party is sustained.
The gotterdammerung - the twilight of the gods - is not heralded by the Ride of the Valkyries.
It is foretold, these days, by a RIM-shot.
-srbp-
The Telegram front page today carries a story on the provincial government's revenue estimates for the Hebron project in three scenarios. The scenarios use oil at an assumed average price over the life of the project at US$50, US$87 and US$113 (constant 2008 dollars). The story is also available online.
Given that oil prices haven't averaged anything near US$87 or US$113 over the past 25 or 30 years, that US$50 a barrel estimate in constant dollars is probably a little closer to the likely performance of oil prices sometime after 2018. In that scenario, the provincial government estimates revenues at $6.8 billion, including $5.4 billion from the revised royalty regime.
That royalty regime keeps royalties at a constant 1% up to simple payout and then provides for an additional 6.5% in any month after simple payout in which prices average above US$50 for West Texas Intermediate at Cushing, Oklahoma.
To see the impact of oil prices on the revenue projections using the revamped royalty regime, all you have to do is lop one measly dollar off the assumed average price. At US$49 - a 2% drop from the government's assumed average price - the province's royalty take drops by at least $1.25 billion. That's 23% less. Factor in the loss from the changed royalty regime, which government estimates at $105 million at the average price of US$50 a barrel and the loss climbs.
The provincial estimates see the 4.9% equity position generating $800 million for the energy corporations oil subsidiary at the US$50 price assumption. This appears to be based on total costs for the company of $600 million over the life of the project (construction to decommissioning).
Based on the provincial government's own estimates of costs for acquisition and the construction phase, that would assume the OilCo's share of all production and decommissioning phase costs at $200 million. That works out to a total projected cost of $4.0 billion for ongoing operations of the rig, exploration, delineation and production drilling after first oil and whatever share of decommissioning costs the oil company will bear. It would also have to include any fees and charges for handling the sale of crude which represents the OilCo share of production.
Low-balled costs? Could be. Bond Papers' preliminary estimate of lifecycle costs for OilCo came in at about twice the amount apparently used in the provincial government calculations. Bond Papers used a figure of $10 billion as the cost of operations expenditures and production phase drilling, and decommissioning costs, including the $250 million for a liability guarantee.
Fixing an accurate estimate of the costs after first oil would help refine the calculations. That may be difficult, though, since the acquisition agreement between the provincial government and the oil companies hasn't been released to the public. It might become somewhat easier when and if a development application is filed with the offshore regulatory board. That application would include a forecast of drilling activity for the production phase.
-srbp-
Related:
The Family Feud continues unabated.
There must be a federal election coming.
The latest volley is a statement released by federal fish minister Loyola Hearn this afternoon:
It's interesting to hear the Premier say today that he was simply "stepping up to the plate" to fund arts initiatives within the province, and to highlight his own commitment to the arts.
Residents of Mount Pearl may find this message a little bit confusing. The original proposal for Mount Pearl's Lifestyle Centre included a local theatre. With federal and municipal money on the table, the Williams government responded that they would not fund the project if the federal government was involved.
In the end, the Lifestyle Centre became a victim of the ABC campaign, and will proceed without a theatre.
Hearn's a scrappy old silverback politician. You don't have to agree with his politics to appreciate that he's unlikely to take the sort of pokes Danny Williams has been making without hitting back. And it's not like Hearn has been afraid to go right up Danny's nose if need be to make a point.
But at this early stage of the campaign, it won't be too long before the Universal Rule is broken and someone's mother gets dragged dragged into the whole fracas.
Oh dear.
Fights in the family are always the ugliest.
How ugly?
Well, there's always this video of a very young, but no less irk-filled Danny Williams telling CBC's Deanne Fleet what a great premier Loyola Hearn would make.
-srbp-
The federal Conservatives and the provincial Conservatives are still hacking away at each other.
This time it's iambic pentameter at 10 paces with cuts to arts funding.
The other day it was provincial Conservative dauphin Jerome Kennedy and funding for a new prison in the province, likely to be built in his own district if the feds cough up the cash.
The only thing missing is Richard Dawson.
All highly entertaining but beyond that, it's nothing more than a sign a federal election is around the corner.
-srbp-