Another poll shows the NL starting numbers

Corporate Research Associates released results today of questions posed to a sample of voters in Newfoundland and Labrador in August and the results confirm, in some respects, the picture of the electorate drawn by the recent NTV/Telelink survey.

When asked to indicate which party they would vote for in a federal election, 43% of decided respondents said Liberal, 35% said Conservative, 20% said NDP and one percent indicated they would vote for the Green Party.

Thirty-nine (39) percent were undecided, would not vote or refused to answer. The survey of 402 residents of Newfoundland and Labrador was conducted between August 12 and August 28, 2008.  It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

The table shows how the numbers line up with the results of the 2006 general election and the NTV poll. The table should not be read as reflecting a trend.  The Telelink and CRA surveys are sufficiently close together in time so that the results confirm each other. 

	2006 GE	CRA Aug 08	NTV Sept 08
Conservative	42.7	35	31.8
Liberal	42.8	43	42.4
New Democratic Party	13.6	20	19.6
Green	?	1	?
UND/Ref/DK	-	39	55
MoE (95%CL)		+/- 4.9%	+/- 3.3%

 

As indicated in an earlier post, based on the polling data and an analysis of historic voting trends, this breakout would suggest that the four ridings that went Liberal in the last election would remain Liberal but with high margins of victory.  The three ridings held previously by the Conservatives would be potentially tight races.

At least one media report in Newfoundland and Labrador noted that two thirds of decided respondents would not be voting Conservative.  This is not unusual in federal politics in Newfoundland and Labrador, where a majority typically vote for a party other than Conservative. Newfoundlanders and Labradorians typically vote anything but Conservative.

One interesting result from the NTV survey - not covered by the CRA poll - is the feeling by almost two thirds of respondents that the ABC campaign is harming federal-provincial relations.

This is hardly surprising given that the provincial government has been repeatedly claiming that the province is being punished for the Family Feud between the federal and Provincial Conservatives.

As well, there has long been a perception in local politics that districts should side with the perceived winner in an election or risk not receiving road paving, school and hospital construction or other public spending.  The power of pork in traditional politics both federally and provincially remains strong.  A party would not have to threaten this in order for the perception to exist and for it to influence voting behaviour.

As well, while it may not be documented, there is anecdotal evidence suggesting that some voters approach voting choice as a lottery in which one must be on the winning side or risk "losing" ones vote.

All of that can have an impact on voting results, especially if the races on the Avalon peninsula indeed are tight. Voters may switch between now and polling day based on perceptions of the national campaign.

Not surprisingly, at least one federal Conservative candidate - Craig Westcott  - has used the argument in several media interviews that the province needs to have an elected representative in the federal cabinet.  Both Westcott and Avalon incumbent Fabian manning have also referred to the need to get past the current wrangling  between the provincial and federal governments in the best interests of the province.  This was not implicitly threatening but reflected - at least by the words and tone - an effort to point at the political benefit of supporting the party which currently leading in the polls and which many observers believe will form another minority government.

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Another bad day on the campaign trail

Federal leader New Democratic Party leader Jack Layton and former provincial party leader Jack Harris have trouble blithely dismissing Ryan Cleary's opinion about New Democrats or about the need to maybe remove Newfoundland and Labrador from "Confederation's death grip". [h/t to nottawa]

Scroll down in the nottawa link and you find another bit of the story as it unfolded, when Cleary scrummed:

the principles of the ND party, NDP, NDP best reflect who I am and what I stand for. I believe that Jack Layton is the best leader in this country to bring us all together. To bring Newfoundland and Labrador into Confederation.

To bring Newfoundland and Labrador into Confederation?

Evidently, Cleary missed at least one little piece of history.

 

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Harper-Williams family feud affecting how feds deal with NL: poll

Almost two thirds  - 63.6% - of respondents to an NTV/Telelink poll believe that the Family Feud is "having a negative impact on how Ottawa deals with Newfoundland and Labrador." 

29.5% said it wasn't and only 6.9% were unsure.

When asked if the Premier should take his Feud on the road across Canada, things weren't quite as clear. 41.2% felt he should while 39.1% said he shouldn't.  19.7% were not sure.

The telephone survey of 919 voting age Newfoundlanders and Labradorians who were aware of the provincial government's ABC campaign was conducted between September 6 and Septemeber 9.

Most likely, this is the poll picked up by the federal Conservatives and reported by Geoff Meeker.

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Strange bedfellows 2: Paul Oram's fickle affections

How quickly doth love turn to hate in the land of politics.

Remember this from Day 9 of the Summer of Love 2007?

Even the Premier's parliamentary assistant will be able to get in on the electioneering. The last SOL release for Thursday was an announcement of a photo op involving federal fish minister Loyola Hearn and the Premier's Open Line crackie, Paul Oram.

Oram and Hearn can be photographed at a municipal water and sewer project in Oram's district, on Friday at 1:30 PM.

In an election campaign, even the crap is apparently so potentially vote-worthy that a cabinet minister and a wannabe cabinet minister will pose for happy snaps with it.

Now sure, as the Telegram recently pointed out, these cost-shared programs have a promotional clause that requires a news release at least.  That was the official response when a government rep was asked this year about the joint funding announcement issued last week.

But last year - before the provincial general election - it apparently required a photo op and smiles with the minister with whom the provincial government was supposedly locked in a blood feud.

How times change. 

Campaign photo ops one day.  Daggers on the open line shows the next.

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A simple question with no good answer

In the week ending September 9,  the average price of gasoline across Canada dropped by 1.9 cents per litre.

Read that again.

Gasoline prices dropped last week, on average by almost two whole cents.  That was regular.  Mid-grade and premium dropped by even more.

In some parts of the country, the drop on a litre of regular gasoline was as much as a nickel.

So how come it is that in Newfoundland and Labrador - like the other provinces using the bankrupt system of government price fixing - gasoline went up by a cent and a half this week?

Anyone?

Even George Murphy, who justifiably earned the respect of consumers for tracking gasoline retail prices with his superb price forecasts, can only offer answers to CBC News that make no sense.

If the loonie and the potential interruptions in supply from refinery shutdowns were the factors, then how come there were parts of the country which saw such dramatic decreases in gasoline prices last week?

Market forces, is the answer to that one.  The free market system working as it worked for everyone before government price fixing was introduced in 2001. 

Last week, markets without government price fixing typically saw a drop in the price consumers pay for gasoline.

In the places unfortunate enough to have a price fixed by government, gasoline went up.

It makes no sense.

Well, not unless you are an oil and gas company.

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Results of Labrador parcel sale: offshore board

The following was released today by the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board.

C-NLOPB Releases Results of 2007 Land Sale for Labrador Offshore Region (Call for Bids NL07-2)

The Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board today announced the results of the 2007 Call for Bids NL07-2 (Labrador Offshore Region) for exploration rights in the Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Area. Bidding closed at 4:00 pm on September 10, 2008 and bids were received on 4 parcels totaling $186,430,680.

The Bids represent the expenditures which the bidders commit to make in exploring the parcels during the initial 6-year period of a 9-year term exploration licence. If companies discover significant quantities of petroleum resources as a result of the exploration work, they may then seek a Significant Discovery Licence from the C-NLOPB. Any Significant Discovery Licences issued in respect of lands resulting from these exploration licences will be subject to rentals which will escalate over time.

The following bids have been accepted:

Parcel 1

Husky Oil Operations Limited (100%)   $10,162,800

Parcel 2

Vulcan Minerals Inc. (50%) and Investcan Energy Corporation (50%)  $9,601,000

Parcel 3

Husky Oil Operations Limited (75%) and Suncor Energy Inc. (25%)  $120,166,880

Parcel 4

Chevron Canada Limited (100%)  $46,500,000

Total  $186,430,680

Subject to Ministerial approval and the bidders satisfying the requirements specified in the Call for Bids, the Board will issue an Exploration Licence for each of the four parcels in November 2008. The Licences will be for a term of nine years, with an initial period of six years.

Bond Papers Note:  The CNLOPB release (available at the link above) included a map of the parcels.  Parcel 3 surrounds two existing significant discoveries (natural gas).

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The first poll: some thoughts

Courtesy of a loyal Bond Papers reader comes this translation of the NTV poll results, compared to the 2006 general election. 

 

	2006	Sept 08
Liberal	42.8	42.4
Conservative	42.7	31.8
NDP	13.6	19.6

 

Based on very preliminary analysis of this poll result coupled with a study of long term voting trends, these numbers suggest that the four Liberal seats from 2006 would see an increase the margin for the Liberal candidate compared to the 2006 results.

The three seats currently held by the Conservatives would appear tight.  Given that two of the incumbents are not running, the Conservative position gets tougher.  By the same token, this statistical analysis obviously doesn't factor the actual candidate mix into the results.  Who the candidate is compared to the others does matter.

The main impact of the Family Feud appears to have been a softening of the Conservative vote.  The extent of that softening isn't completely clear.  The Feud can deliver cabinet ministers and hard core party workers in some cases but it won't clinch it for the party that seems to be favoured by the Feud supporters.

In Avalon, it is currently shaping up to be a two-way fight between the Conservative Fabian Manning and Liberal Scott Andrews.  Dropping a new prison in Harbour Grace, as Stephen Harper is expected to do this weekend, would be a significant boost for Manning.

In the St. John's seats, the race would be tight, based solely on the numbers.  Factor in Jack Harris in St. John's East, take out the advantage for the Conservatives from incumbency and the softening of the Conservatives because of the Family Feud and Harris would look to have an upswing.

The challenge for Liberal Walter Noel would be to make himself relevant, compared to the current public perception of Harris as the sole beneficiary of the Family Feud.

Likewise, in St. John's South Mount Pearl,  the political challenge for the Liberals and New Democrats will be to take maximum advantage of the softening of the Conservative vote and to turn the election into a two-way fight.  Siobhan Coady is widely perceived as the front runner.  Expect the New Democrats to start turning their guns on her directly in an effort to make it a two-way racket.  That can work to Coady's advantage if she can actually capitalize on it.

Campaigns are not foregone conclusions.  Polling numbers and past voting patterns are only indicators. They are clues. There is nothing deterministic about them.  Much depends, as in every election, about how the candidates and the campaigns perform on the ground.

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The politics of strange bedfellows

Bob Ridgley is the Provincial Conservative member of the House of Assembly for St. John's North and part of a family clan that dominates a significant chunk of Conservative vote in the metro St. John's area.

Since his provincial district sits almost entirely within the federal riding of St. John's East where more and more incumbent MHAs (all Provincial Conservatives by the way) seem to be turning out in support of the New Democrat's Jack Harris, it's a fair bet that Bob will be voting Orange in October.

That's hardly surprising given that the Liberal  - Walter Noel - is a former provincial cabinet minister and the Conservative candidate is a guy who has been a perpetual thorn in the side of Premier Danny Williams.  Former journalist Craig Westcott did a game job today of defending Stephen Harper following a speech by the Premier at the Board of Trade,  but it's got to be getting harder and harder for Westcott to keep up a defense of the clearly indefensible.  He said the words but they lacked conviction. It's too bad to see a decent guy like Westcott - the contrarian's contrarian - do this kind of damage to himself.

But that's digression.

CBC News this evening included an interview with some local politicians on the federal campaign.  Energy minister Kathy Dunderdale  - a provincial Conservative - proudly announced she'd be working for the Dipper's Harris.  Not surprising given that she punted Noel to the curb in 2003.

But what of the others, like Ridgley?

While he didn't say so in a Telegram interview on Tuesday, Ridgley made clear a couple of other things. 

First of all, it's pretty obvious he is a Conservative - Provincial and usually federal - right down to being a voter in the merger election that saw Stephen Harper elected. 

Yep.  It is a Family Feud at heart and no one should be naive enough to believe that in a few years time this whole thing won't have snapped back to the usual friendships, relationships and voting patterns.

But here's an even more interesting  turn of phrase in Ridgley's e-mail response to the Telegram reporter:

When Stephen Harper was running to be the leader of the 'new' Conservative Party, I supported Belinda Stronach;  I thought she was as shallow as a saucer but I believed that she was the only one who had a chance of stopping Harper...

Ridgley keeps going, saying next that he was persuaded Harper was alright a little later on.  Ridgley's conversion to the Harper cause survived two federal elections.  Ridgley evidently kept pounding doors or whatever a key local Tory organizer does to get Stephen Harper elected despite the concerns raised about Harper, the evident problems Ridgley had at the time Harper became leader and well, just about anything else that might have given him pause.

Okay?

Well, not really.

You have a guy here who was prepared to get into political bed with someone he believed wasn't qualified for the job  - lacking in intellect is the polite version of what he said - because he believed that candidate was the only way to stop someone else from winning about whom he claims he had serious misgivings at the time.

How serious?  Well serious enough to vote for someone who to him seemed too shallow to be a national party leader.

What's the word for that sort of logic? 

Facile.

Well, yeah. 

But there's a better one.

Shallow? 

Yeah, shallow.

When that first shallow bit of logic didn't work out, Ridgley changed his mind and got into bed with Stephen Harper.

If that's not enough to make you a little uneasy, there's maybe the whole reference to Stronach as being "shallow as a saucer". 

That's gratuitous. 

It's a cheap shot.

It's a pretty low personal attack, along the lines of calling someone a quisling or a traitor or showing a puffin crapping on the leader of a rival party.

If nothing else, it was totally unnecessary in the context of the e-mail on any level and that too says as much about Ridgley's judgment as the other stuff.

It will be interesting to see how Nancy Riche, among others, reacts to having Ridgley knocking doors on behalf of Jack Harris. Does Bob share Jack's views on choice and equal marriage for example?  There's a set of questions to pose to the Blue Crew who are turning Orange suddenly.

Ridgley's backing the ABC thingy  for a very specific reason and when the reason goes away he and the rest of his "progressive" Conservatives will head back home, just as he was prepared to switch from Belinda to Steve when it suited.

Politics can make for some truly strange bedfellows.

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Anything But Clear: poll

If the latest poll by NTV News is any indication, the Premier has a gigantic job of work ahead of him just in his own province to make the Family Feud relevant to the federal election let alone taking the thing across the country.

Of the 1200 likely voters polled, 27% hadn't heard of the Premier's Anything But Conservative campaign.  That's two years after he started it and despite more than a few references to it on the news.

The poll, conducted by Telelink for NTV, then asked the voters who were aware of ABC - that's 919 respondents for those keeping track - if they though it was appropriate for the Premier to be engaged in it in the first place.

45.6% said yes, 34.5% said no, 19.9% were unsure. The margin of error is +/-3.3 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

Whip out those calculators, ladies and gentlemen, and do some math.  Sensitive people may avert their eyes at this point.

That's 45.6% of the 73% who indicated they'd heard of the Premier's campaign.

A couple of clicks on the old calculator later and you see that works out to only 33% of all respondents.  One third of the public think it's appropriate. 

That's all.

But it gets worse, at least for the ABCers:

Telelink had more difficulty than usual getting people to answer the survey, and those who did -- 55% -- were undecided. Meanwhile, 19.1% said they would vote Liberal, 14.3% said they would vote Conservative and 8.8% said they would vote NDP.

Now it's almost impossible to understand if that means 55% of 1200, 55% of 919 or 55% of some other small number who answered the question but any way you put that together, it should make some people in the province very nervous about the outcome of the election in some of the seats.

Like say the three on the Avalon peninsula that are really the only ones up for grabs.

And through this you have to bear in mind that Telelink's survey during the last provincial election was eerily accurate.  We're talking off by a few percentage points as opposed to the widely quoted CRA poll which was off by a country mile and then some.

People aren't indicating their unquestioning and everlasting support for the crusade.  Who would ever have believed such a thing possible, take one step forward.  Certainly not your humble e-scribbler who has contended that at the very least survey respondents in these parts are adept at concealing their real intentions. 

Sometimes.

Other times, they describe themselves as undecided when they are thinking of doing something that goes against the perceived popular or dominant opinion.  It used to be - not so very long ago - that people in the undecided column were usually those ticked at government about something but either parking there until the matter resolved or leaning toward the opposition party but not sure if it was safe to say it openly.  About 15 to 20% can be genuinely undecided or won't vote.

In this case, a significant chunk of the 55% who were undecided could very well be potential Conservative voters or more likely are Conservatives who have made up their minds but just don't want to say. There may also be a bunch of undecided Liberals who are unsure of the vote or who might be looking at another option.  Heck, with numbers like that, pretty well all three major parties have some softness in their support.

The parties have a job of work to do. In many instances, that job won't be made easier by mixing around party allegiances among workers or by having candidates from one of the provincial parties cuddling up to people they usually don't agree with let alone work beside on a campaign. 

If Telelink and NTV released the full data set, someone could crunch some numbers and give you a much more accurate view of the poll and the electorate than the online story does.  Even as it is, though, this first poll of the campaign should really shake up the popular perception of what has already turned out to be a campaign of surprises.

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The 800 pound gorilla in the election

Correction:

After 24 months of Conservative government, productivity sits low for the third consecutive quarter, the longest continuous period of decline in 18 years.

For the first time since the Conservatives were last in power, the federal government may have to consider running a federal budget deficit.

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[The above replaces this lede which was wrong:  "After 24 months of Conservative government, productivity is at its lowest level in 18 years - the last Conservative government - and sits low after three quarters of consecutive decline."

H/t to Andrew for pointing out the mistake. (See comment)]  

The Blue Shaft

If you want to get a good idea of just how the Connies carbon initiative wouldn't work, then read Paul Wells blog entry that exposes the scam in plain English.

For the Harper defence, full of the characteristic professorial high tones and just a wee bit of anger, there's the audio of Paul's Q & A with the PM.

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Ryan Cleary: Gucci socialist, aging granola or artsy fartsy?

Ryan Cleary wannabe candidate for the New Democratic Party may not get to be for a whole bunch of reasons, not the least of which is that he has shown no love for the Dipper crew over the years.

Like this gem from last fall in his analysis of the general election.  After praising the Premier to the hilt - as is Ryan's wont - we get this lovely phrase:

On the plus side, there’s nowhere to go but up (at least for the Liberals, the NDP being content to cater to the small pocket of aging granolas and artsy fartsies in Town).

or this collection of bons mots:

If it wasn’t for Danny’s all-forgiving nature, the NDP — which is down now to a single soul in the legislature — would lose its party status and all the special perks that go with it. There would be no worse time than for that to happen than now, seven months before a provincial general election. Michael might see her party fade to black altogether. Then who would be left to save the Gucci socialists and artsy fartsy types in the east end of St. John’s?

or this thought about Jack Harris, his possible fellow candidate:

The question remains, what will the party do without him? My guess is … nothing. The same as it did while he was at the helm. That may sound mean, but it’s a fact.

Well, that was a fact, but Cleary didn't stop there:

The NDP has barely made an inch of headway in the province since Peter Fenwick wore short pants — party because the party has a tendency to eat its own. Despite the backing of most of the major unions, the New Democrats — outside the aging granolas in east end St. John’s and the union crowd in Labrador City — are a lame political duck. When Jack goes he should fold up the NDP tent and take it with him.

Hardly seems likely that the Gucci socialists, artsy fartsy set and the aging granolas in St. John's South Mount Pearl are going to forgive and forget just to get Cleary's name on the ballot.

Never fear, though.  There's always Labrador where the Connies have had to parachute in a political staffer to carry the Blue banner. 

The Orange bunch apparently can't find anyone even willing to get in the plane, let alone don the 'chute.  If the NDP threw in free air fare, Cleary could be their man in the middle of Todd Russell country.

Ya know it's not like he hasn't taken the odd free flight before.

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Yes, but what kind of fruit?

Chuck McVetty is likely fuming, given that the federal Conservatives are apparently led by a guy willing to self identify as a fruit.

Talk about alienating your base, there Queensway Steve.

But there's more to this little bit of campaign levity than that campaign levity.

For starters, the CBC version refers to the question thrown at Stephen Harper as inevitable given that Harper was at a produce market for a photo op. Yeah, like that's the first and most obvious question.

Then there's the apology from Harper handlers that he hadn't been briefed on the question.

Briefed on the question?

Apology?

Maybe they were apologizing publicly to the people behind the entirely manufactured Stephen Harper  - is that like a political GMO? - for letting the guy field the question in the first place.

So anyway, when asked what kind of vegetable he would be, the unscripted Stephen Harper looked at the laden tables  and picked "fruit".

If they'd had a chance to brief him, Harper would probably have said "potato", being careful of course to make sure they added an "e" at the end.

We all wondered what Dan Quayle was doing these days.

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How green was your valley?

Like the old Newfoundland saying, some politicians think the voters are too green to burn if you take the full measure of the least political events in eastern Newfoundland.

First, there was the latest begging letter to Uncle Ottawa - itself pretty much recycled from previous federal election campaigns and the 2006 federal Conservative campaign manual - demonstrating both the dependence of independence and going it alone but only if others pay for it.  And yes folks, there is a clip of a certain political leader saying that Newfoundlanders and Labradorians want to be masters of their domain.

Second came the planted caller endorsing the Liberal candidate in St. John's East because, you know, a vote for the NDP is a vote for Stephen Harper.  Yeah, like that piece of recycling - or is it compost - from the 2004 campaign worked so well for the same guy the last time he ran in that seat.  

David Suzuki was right. 

This is a totally green campaign.

Everything is recycled.

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Begging letters to Ottawa

Some politicians think we gotta treat Ottawa like Santa Claus and write him begging or something...or when Joey was around it was "Uncle Ottawa" maybe he'll do us some favours.

Jack Harris, federal NDP candidate in St. John's East and former provincial NDP leader said a mouthful at the news conference announcing his candidacy. 

Just how much a mouthful, though, will be plain when Harris' national leader answers the latest begging letter to Ottawa sent today by Harris' former law partner with a resounding "yes" on pretty much everything and Harris picks up the ABC leaders endorsement. 

The whole thing is like a Republican campaign:  it ridicules itself.

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Autonomy? What university autonomy?

A statement on university autonomy released this morning was sent to reporters without sign-off from Memorial University.

Pretty much proves the medium is the message.

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"Our brain has been hijacked"

The usually more staid Daimnation has gone to the dogs.

Yapping dogs of blind partisanship.

The best they can come up with for political comment is name-calling - C'mon guys.  "Dork" is so junior high school"  - on a story which died shortly after it was first floated.

Can the kiddie porn crap be far behind?

Oh yes, guys, when it comes to incompetent campaigning - not to mention morally debased and intellectually bankrupt - Stephen Harper's attack on Paul Martin takes the cake.

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Political definition time

To jerome:  To make an argument that directly contradicts an earlier one, especially where the original opinion was based on principle.

After Jerome Kennedy, a Newfoundland and Labrador justice minister who, as a private practice lawyer, condemned the practice of appointing judges based on something other than experience and competence and who later, as justice minister, argued for the appointment of judges based on what province they lived in.

Ex.: No one could support his argument since he jeromed all over the place.

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Cloverfield 2

In 1988,  Jack Harris was the lively little mammal who emerged amid a battle between a Godzilla and a Mothra of local politics to head off to Ottawa as member of parliament for St. John's East.

How ironic that 20 years later, Harris is one of two political dinosaurs resurrected by the nuclear explosions of the Premier's Family Feud to wage battle across the streets and hills of St. John's East.

The lively mammal in this latest really bad remake of really bad old political horror movies turns out, to everyone's surprise, to be the Conservative candidate, former journalist Craig Westcott.

Odds are the Provincial Conservatives never saw that one coming.  They could have predicted Harris' return like the rest of us did, as far back as six or eight months ago.  Danny Williams' former law partner spent his last few years spending way more time siding with the government and asking softball questions for the Provincial Conservatives to be the least bit worried that as a federal member of parliament he might somehow dare to contradict the Premier or pose any other form of challenge. To some, Harris spent his last years in the legislature sounding more like a Tory backbencher angling for an appointment to cabinet than the leader of the province's social democrats.

And after all, that is really what the ABC campaign is about on one level:  ensuring that there are no federal politicians able to challenge the Premier as the undeniable spokesperson for the heart and soul of the nation.  Some of the Commentariat has asked what Williams would do if there was another Harper administration with no elected Conservative members in his caucus.  Rub his hands in glee would be the answer.

To get his wish, Williams only has to hope the federal Liberals wind up in second place.  If Dion forms a new Liberal administration in mid October, either Judy Foote or Todd Russell would stand a chance of a cabinet seat.  They sit in safe Liberal seats and have no contenders against them as it current stands.

Cynthia Downey is rumoured by some to thinking of running in Random Burin St. George's.  If she does crop up, then you can bet the Provincial Conservatives are behind it.   Downey won't matter much though, since any opponent can simply point to her political blindness in her run for the federal Conservatives last time as proof she lacks anything resembling political judgment.  After all, what person concerned about refugees under a deportation order would run for a political party committed to the rapid execution of deportation orders?

But all that is digression.  As it stands right now, the only real political battles in this federal election are on the Avalon and the most interesting is in the East.

The race will likely see Jack Harris in the lead early on.  He is generally popular, even though the bulk of his old provincial seat is in St. John's South-Mount Pearl. In addition though, the New Democrats can count on support from the Provincial Conservatives - i.e. Jack's old law partner - who can funnel money if needed but more importantly workers and voters into the Orange camp.  The local Dippers will likely be amazed at seeing such political riches to use.

Confirmation of strong Williams support came in the form of Ed Buckingham, a longtime Tory organizer and current member of the provincial legislature, at Harris' campaign launch late Monday afternoon. Buckingham is connected and if he is there, then others are behind the scenes knocking doors to send Danny's man to Ottawa.

Craig Westcott's appearance in the campaign will serve chiefly to get up the Premier's nose and to draw whatever resources will go into the ABC campaign from the Provincial Conservative side into two ridings instead of the one they'd counted on.  Given the history between the two - and the new chapters to be written during the campaign - Williams cannot take the chance of Westcott doing anything but being crushed utterly.

The Provincial Conservatives won't be able to take any chances in that respect, either. The federal Conservatives in the riding can count on some workers and come polling day they can likely count on more votes than some currently give them credit for. The ballot boxes are secret, after all. With no way of precisely polling the district - people lie to pollsters when they want to do something a dominant force wouldn't like - Williams will be fighting the East campaign partially blinded.

As for Walter Noel, he will be struggling to find relevance. The heat of the campaign will be somewhere else and there is simply no way by which Noel can inject himself into the row.  Should he try and step in, one of his opponents will likely deliver him some perfume, women's clothes and a camera so that he can stay busy and stay out of the way.

If voters in St. John's East want an alternative to the Conservatives, they have it in Jack Harris.  The way the votes will likely run in the East, traditional NDP voters, hard core Conservatives who haven't gotten over 1949, provincial Tories and both federal and provincial Liberals who wish that Walter would just know when to stop - a disease that affects too many old politicians - can all find an amenable choice in Jack Harris.  He is offensive to none.

For those who are staunchly Conservative or who like their politicians to be somewhat offensive to the scared cows of provincial politics sometimes, they can chose Westcott.

If nothing else, Westcott's trademark sharp tongue will lash Danny Williams every time he enters the campaign.  If the first few days are any indication, Westcott may likely lash the old boy a few more times just to get a rise out of him.

And every time Williams does rise to the bait - he conspicuously didn't make himself available at all on Monday - Westcott's stock goes up making him potentially even more electable than he is at the start of the campaign.

What a mess this Family Feud could turn out to be.

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Electoral shocks and nots

Shock:  Newspaper editor Craig Westcott's the federal Conservative candidate in St. John's East. If you want an ox gored, then call Craig. He is best known locally for his criticism of Premier Danny Williams. That criticism earned Westcott some notoriety.

Not:  Former auditor general and provincial cabinet minister Beth Marshall is out.

Not:  Former provincial New Democratic Party leader Jack Harris will run for the Orange in St. John's East.

Shock:  Merv Wiseman, current president of the fur breeders association and former president of the provincial agriculture federation, is running for the federal Conservatives and hammering the Green Shift in his first foray into the media.  Wiseman tried for the Provincial Conservative nod in the recent Baie Verte White Bay by-election and lost.

Meanwhile, the president of the Canadian Federation of Agriculture is running for the Liberals.

-srbp-