Wishin' and hopin' and spewin' and sprayin'

Undoubtedly, Scott Andrews campaign took great heart this past week for stories running on CBC and in the Telegram about Fabian Manning and his expense accounts in the House of Assembly.

The race looks tight, according to an NTV/Telelink poll and those two stories might well look like the kind of ammunition needed to push Andrews into the lead.

They might.

But then again, they might not.

Here's why.

Firstly, the race in Avalon appears tight according to the NTV/Telelink poll.  Given the relatively high undecided  - 40% of respondents - it might look like pulling Andrews in front is within grasp. 

However, the undecideds are likely made up of a huge number of Fabe fans who are right now either uncomfortable in saying who they will vote for or who genuinely are hung up about whether or not to vote.

Those people are necessarily winnable for the Andrews cause.

But they have to be won.

And that leads us to the second point:  Andrews hasn't done anything to woo the undecideds. 

Thus far, Andrews has run a flame-thrower of a campaign built almost entirely on attacks straight at Manning.  Andrews has sucked the ABC tit harder than a cabinet minister looking for a new job in the upcoming shuffle.  He's not getting any milk out though because the Family Feud nipple spews only bile.  It's all negative, all the time.

The Family Feud gives nothing to which a voter can attach.

Take a listen to the Morning Show's candidate forum last Thursday and you'll see the point. [Part 1 and Part 2] 

Andrews spent way too much time slicing into Manning personally in a high pitched and grating way.  Who the heck could stand to listen to that for more than a few seconds?

The answer is no one and in the case of Morning Show listeners no one other than the handful of partisan loyalists and the masochists who just take anything political they can get regardless of what it is.

The rest of us would rather have been chained naked at Cape Spear with seagulls plucking out our eyeballs all the while enduring Slim Whitman's greatest hits at top volume rather than sit through one more second of Thursday's racket.

Take a look at Andrews' campaign website.  Look as hard as you want  and you will be hard pressed to find one single reason why anyone should vote for Andrews and the Liberal Party. There are plenty.  Andrews just isn't intent, apparently, on letting on what they are.

Third, if you look at the Manning stories, you have a hard time finding something to get really annoyed at.  In a case where the benchmarks were set by Tom Rideout and Walter Noel, Fabian Manning's handful of travel claims is hardly worth talking about. On top of that he paid back the secret bonus cash.

You don't have to like what Fabian did, but he is by far nowhere near the worst of the bunch, even if you take aside those facing criminal charges. Hey, it's not like even one of Andrews' staunchest supporters hasn't been known to change his mind completely on House of Assembly spending once the local Family head has pronounced on the matter.

How the heck will a Manning supporter react?

Even if Andrews wants to get indignant about Manning's spending, the story is still framed as what not to do.  The Connie vote is suppressed enough;  you can't suppress it more without risking post-traumatic stress disorder up and down the shore.  What's missing is the stuff to pull voters in Andrews' direction.

So far he and his team haven't shown any signs of figuring that out.

Now, their hammering might work.

The odds are against it.  No amount of wishing and hoping based on spewing and spraying has worked very well yet anywhere else.

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At least he's got a plan

While the Conservatives race to cobble one together for release on Tuesday and Stephen Harper and finance leprechaun Jim Flaherty do their best Chip Diller impressions - all is well - at least one party actually has a plan to deal with the economy.

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Jack's coming back

Jack Layton, whose campaign signs are popping up all over St. John's South-Mount Pearl is coming back to campaign for Ryan Cleary, the guy running in Jack's place.

He'll be in St. John's this Sunday, October 5.

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Harper channeled Mike Harris, too

First Howard.

Now Harris.

The press release compares the speaking notes used by Harris on December 4, 2002, which are posted on the website of the Montreal Economic Institute:

"Thinking about things from a new and different perspective is never easy. It takes courage, conviction and the strength to know that in taking a new and innovative course, you are making change for the better. Genuine leaders are the ones who do the right thing."

Two months later, on February 19, 2003, Harper gave a similar address in the House of Commons in response to the Liberal budget:

"Thinking about things from a new and different perspective is not about reading the polls and having focus group tests. It is never easy because it takes courage, conviction and the strength to know that taking a new and innovative course is going to make change for the better. Genuine leaders are the ones who do the right thing."

Holy crap.  It doesn't look like Harper's had an original thought in his life.

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Now there's video of the Great Copiest.

Refinery's Euro-backers bailed in '07, law suit alleges

In statement of claim against Altius in the ongoing legal battles over the second refinery proposed for a site near Come by Chance, BAE Newplan Group claims that three European backers of the NLRC project withdrew in 2007.

BAE Newplan is seeking damages, interest and court costs totaling $20,594,224.65 in a dispute over engineering and environmental work done for the proposed refinery.

Later in the statement of claim, BAE-Newplan further accuses Altius of not disclosing key information, including that three European investors had dropped out of the project last year, and that $30 million raised in a share offering by Altius Minerals in November 2007 would be used to construct integral parts for the NLRC refinery.

An earlier suit brought against the refinery company - NLRC - led the refinery proponents to seek bankruptcy protection. Altius is one of the major shareholders in NLRC.

NLRC claimed that the project was suffering financial problems due to the subprime crisis in the United States. It is unclear whether the European investors bailed in 2007, something that hasn't previously  been reported by Altius or NLRC. The three investors are still listed on the NLRC website as of 03 October 2008.

Altius is a financing proponent on the provincial government's proposed Lower Churchill hydroelectric project.

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Now will someone start reporting it correctly?

The ABC campaign is a Family Feud.

The Provincial Conservatives are sticking it to their federal brothers and sisters.

That's it.

That's all of it.

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Stephane's response to Danny

A simple, well-crafted letter and the missing attachment.

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Steamroller!

If the latest NTV/Telelink poll on the race in St. John's East holds true,  New Democrat Jack Harris can start house-hunting in Ottawa and his two rivals can count on not getting their deposit back.

Of the 526 people in the riding polled by Telelink, 52.3 percent said they would be voting for Harris.  Liberal Walter Noel polled 8.7 percent and Conservative Craig Westcott polled 8.2 percent.

Craig shouldn't be embarrassed;  to come from nowhere, hold up the name of an underdog's underdog and tie a former provincial cabinet minister is no mean feat.

Now mind you, Craig had some help from Walter who seems to love setting fire to his own bollocks at every opportunity.

But still.

In the right campaign for the right party, Craig would be electable.  he's smart, knows his stuff and can make the case.

Michael Connors finished the NTV broadcast by wondering if Harris and his crew of New Democrats and Provincial Conservatives would now spend the last two weeks in St. John's South-Mount Pearl campaigning against Liberal Siobhan Coady.

She'd better hope not.

Ordinarily, she's got enough of a lead to win against her nearest rival, the NDP's Ryan Cleary.

If Harris piled on for the last two weeks, there might actually wind up being two orange seats in Newfoundland and Labrador.  None of the Connies would sally to the south since they've already taken a shine to Coady.

But Harris and the Dippers?

They wouldn't have the same hesitation.

Not for a second.

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If you aren't depressed, you should be

Richard Raleigh holds nothing back in his assessment of the candidates running in the two St. John's ridings.

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Lower Churchill delayed a mere six months?

Energy corporation boss Ed Martin told CBC News that the current market turmoil in the United States could delay the Lower Churchill project by up to six months.

The province will need to borrow billions of dollars to finance the project, and Ed Martin, CEO of Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro, said Wednesday the project could be set back by a few months as he waits for the financial market to sort itself out.

It was hoped the megaproject could get the green light as early as 2009, but with the U.S. economy in turmoil Martin said raising the cash on the open market won't be easy.

"Well, we can be flexible and we will be. We are going to be very strategic in terms of when we go in. If that means that we're going to delay going in for six months, we will," he said.

Just six months?  That seems incredibly optimistic given the apparent magnitude of the economic downturn in the United States. 

Earlier on Wednesday, the Liberal opposition in the provincial legislature raised questions about the impact economic uncertainty might have on the project.

The project is currently in the midst of an environmental review and, to date, no firm power purchase agreements have been made public.

A downturn in the American economy would reduce demand for electrical power, a potential export customer for the project. Likewise a global downturn in the economy would lessen the need for a new aluminum smelter which has been suggested as a potential local development in Labrador.   A global recession in the early 1990s helped to scuttle plans to develop the Lower Churchill at that time.

Tightening capital markets were cited as one reason proponents of a oil refinery near Come by Chance, Newfoundland to seek bankruptcy protection.  Bond Papers took a different view.

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Steve and Stock in 2003

From the Wall Street Journal, March 2003, Stephen Harper and Stockwell Day tell Americans their position on Iraq (presumably not stolen from someone else):

Canadians Stand With You

By STEPHEN HARPER and STOCKWELL DAY

Today, the world is at war. A coalition of countries under the leadership of the U.K. and the U.S. is leading a military intervention to disarm Saddam Hussein. Yet Prime Minister Jean Chretien has left Canada outside this multilateral coalition of nations.

This is a serious mistake. For the first time in history, the Canadian government has not stood beside its key British and American allies in their time of need. The Canadian Alliance -- the official opposition in parliament -- supports the American and British position because we share their concerns, their worries about the future if Iraq is left unattended to, and their fundamental vision of civilization and human values. Disarming Iraq is necessary for the long-term security of the world, and for the collective interests of our key historic allies and therefore manifestly in the national interest of Canada. Make no mistake, as our allies work to end the reign of Saddam and the brutality and aggression that are the foundations of his regime, Canada's largest opposition party, the Canadian Alliance will not be neutral. In our hearts and minds, we will be with our allies and friends. And Canadians will be overwhelmingly with us.

But we will not be with the Canadian government.

Modern Canada was forged in large part by war -- not because it was easy but because it was right. In the great wars of the last century -- against authoritarianism, fascism, and communism -- Canada did not merely stand with the Americans, more often than not we led the way. We did so for freedom, for democracy, for civilization itself. These values continue to be embodied in our allies and their leaders, and scorned by the forces of evil, including Saddam Hussein and the perpetrators of the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. That is why we will stand -- and I believe most Canadians will stand with us -- for these higher values which shaped our past, and which we will need in an uncertain future.

Messrs. Harper and Day are the leader and shadow foreign minister, respectively, of the Canadian Alliance.

This comes from a supposedly conservative website, so presumably they just copied as is.  Short, sweet and too the point.  Harper may have cribbed the text of his speech that same month in the House of Commons, but there can be no mistake about the position that Harper and his party (now doing business as the Conservative Party of Canada) took on the need to invade Iraq.

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It's Coady in front

The NTV/Telelink poll on St. John's South- Mount Pearl didn't turn up many major surprises.

Liberal Siobhan Coady, who is trying the seat for the third time, is in front with 29.1% of "likely" voters.  New Democrat Ryan Cleary is in second place with 19.5% and Conservative Merv Wiseman is at 11.6%.  Green Party candidate Ted Warren and NL First Party candidate Greg Byrne fall into the "other" category in the poll, and split up 1.3% between them.

Undecided is at 38.5%.  Margin of error in the poll of 550 "likely" voters was plus or minus 4.3%.

Coady polled 35% and 33% of the cast votes in both her previous outings.  That means she's pretty much held on to her vote.

The New Democrats likewise seem to be hanging on to their vote with Ryan Cleary.  Peg Norman, the candidate last time, garnered a share of the vote in the low 20s.

Biggest change came for the Conservatives.  Loyola Hearn polled 40% and 45% of the cast votes in 2004 and 2006.

Fully 70% of respondents said the ABC campaign had no influence on their choice of Liberal or Conservative.

Undecided is very large, but in both the previous campaigns voter turnout was less than 60%.

Finally, voters were asked what issue they considered most important. As in Avalon, social programs rated first at 51.1%; the economy was second at 18.4%.

Equalization was the third issue, at 10.4%.  That's a pretty strong indication that the ABC campaign - which has Equalization at its core - isn't moving voters toward the Liberals and New Democrats.  Rather it has merely served to suppress the Conservative vote.

Unlike in Avalon, which had an equally large undecided population, the clear differentiation among the candidates in St. John's South-Mount Pearl and the absence of an incumbent suggests that the election is Coady's to lose.

She's been running a campaign that appears aimed to appeal to disgruntled Conservatives, although, as in past elections, the economic issues which have tended to be at the forefront of her campaign literature aren't the ones at top of mind for most voters.  A shift in her messaging to emphasize issues that are likeliest to move voters to the polls might help to make her unbeatable.  [Hint:  As in the past two federal elections, the Hibernia 8.5%, the Lower Churchill and Equalization are not the biggest thing on voters' minds.]

Cleary's campaign hasn't dropped literature throughout the riding and the absence of a website and advertising specifically for the riding has made it harder for the New Democrats to push their message to voters in the riding.  They've been relying, apparently on the national effort. That would make it very difficult for Cleary and the New Democrats to develop any momentum by appealing to the undecideds.

There's not much Wiseman could do except pray for some sort of October surprise.

Otherwise, St. John's South-Mount Pearl is going pretty much as the popular wisdom would have it.

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Double barreled update - Not one but two e-mails corrected the point about Ryan Cleary not having a website.

He does, and you can find it at ryanclearyndp.ca.  Some will note that Ryan is blogging and find that hysterically funny given his relentless attacks on bloggers, including the claim at one point that he never read blogs.

There are some other points to note.  Cleary has signage which is a campaign standard.  The ones seen by your humble e-scribbler do not have the website addy.  Simple clue:  by putting the addy on the signs, you drive traffic to the website where more detailed information can be found.

Apparently there have been no literature drops in the Cowan Heights/Bowring Park area of the riding. Despite having searched by every means possible, your humble e-scribbler couldn't find the Cleary site.  It seems to have gone live around September 23, judging by the date of the first blog entry. 

Cleary has been knocking doors, however it is hard to hit the entire riding in five to six weeks that way.

Thanks for the corrected information, Dale and Clare Marie. Now that it's confirmed Ryan has a website, we can do the Campaign 2.0 assessment of this election.

If there are any other gaps, keep the corrected information coming.

 

A tight race in Avalon? Dream on, baby

NTV and Telelink released a poll on Tuesday on the race in the federal riding of Avalon.

NTV touted it as showing a tight race, with the Conservative incumbent and Liberal challenger separated by only the margin of error for the poll.

Take a look at the undecided in the poll and you can forget about tight races.

39.9%

Yes, 40 percent of the people surveyed said they were undecided. That's 15 percentage points higher than Fabian Manning got and he's in the lead;  his nearest challenger - Liberal Scott Andrews - racked up something around 21%.

Then look at the satisfaction number for the incumbent, Fabian Manning.  Fifty-one percent said they were satisfied with his performance as member of parliament.

Then recall that Fabian Manning has been on the receiving end of a huge amount of attention as the only incumbent Conservative running in this election. The entire rhetorical weight of the Family Feud sat on his shoulders at one time and even though the Premier has backed off somewhat, there's evidently no love loss between the two.

And everyone knows that.

With all the anything but Conservative messaging out there, anyone who has made a clear choice shouldn't feel the least problem in telling the world that they intend to vote Liberal, New Democrat or even that they won't vote.

The large undecided vote in Avalon is most likely comprised of a large group of Manning voters who are simply uncomfortable with saying publicly what they could reasonably perceive as being an unpopular choice.  In some instances, they might even think that expressing their choice that might invite even more pressure against their guy than he's already felt.

Here's another clue:  when asked about the impact of the ABC campaign on their choice, people who selected a non-Conservative choice (i.e. the Liberals and New Democrats) overwhelmingly indicated (66%) that ABC had no impact on their choice.

That leads your humble e-scribbler to conclude that those Grit and Dipper votes were pretty much shored up any way.

Now it is entirely possible that the 40% undecided contains a huge number of people who just won't vote. That still likely works more in Manning's favour than against him.

As a last point, note that Telelink doesn't probe undecideds to determine any leanings or why they are undecided.  That means any detailed analysis  - including this post - is difficult and any comments are conjecture.

Still, you'd have to believe an awful lot of things to believe that the race in Avalon is actually tight.

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A-B-C = D-E-A-D

Some local media outlets have taken to tacking obligatory mentions of the ABC thingy onto stories related to the election campaign even when there is absolutely no logical reason to do so.

Despite that effort to keep the thing alive, Danny Williams' office confirmed on Tuesday that the whole thing is deader than a doornail.

They offered up the "he's too busy" excuse.

Uh huh.

Like yesterday when his jag was in his parking space but he sent Kathy Dunderdale down to meeting with people worried the government is about to issue even more fish processing licenses in a market already grossly oversupplied with fish plants.

Yes, Danny Williams turned down yet another request to  campaign.  That is to do more than deliver a bad speech badly to an audience that has heard it a dozen times already.

At some point, the local newsrooms will figure out the real story here and start covering it.

They can find a hint as to the reasons the ABC thingy is a total fiction in at least one Bond Papers post.

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Dion brings in local heavyweight for debate prep

Some people will understand the importance of a seemingly small detail in this ctv.ca story:

According to Liberal insiders, Tim Murphy, Martin's one-time chief of staff, has been playing the role of Harper in the dry runs. Richard Mahoney and Mark Watton, also erstwhile Martin confidants, have played the roles of moderator and NDP Leader Jack Layton respectively.

 

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The return of Marg, Princess Warrior

Harper is doomed!

 

CBC has more, including raw video.

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Separated at birth: the international Connie speechifying version

Stephen Harper's 2003 speech on Iraq was lifted from a speech by Australian Prime Minister John Howard delivered two days before Harper's oration.

In classic Connie fashion, the gaffe has been blamed on a staffer.  In classic Harper fashion -  and in the interests of direct personal accountability - Harper stuck his spokesperson out front to toss a few  lines at the media.

The guy who wrote the speech is a fellow at the Fraser Institute and used to write speeches for Bill Vander Zalm and Kim Campbell.  Vander Zalm was premier of British Columbia.  Campbell was the short-lived prime minister who succeeded Brian Mulroney until the spectacular political disaster in the 1993 general election when her party was reduced to two seats.

What's update, Doc?

Conservative Doc O'Keefe, the St. John's mayor, wasn't trying to avoid politicizing a portion of the meeting at city hall on Monday night as your humble e-scribbler originally thought.

Turns out the loyal Connie and some of his fellow councilors  - also long-time Connies of the federal and provincial variety - were trying to make a political attack on the Liberal Party's Green Shift.

They were doing so by pretending to be concerned about the cost of the Liberals' environmental policy to taxpayers on things like public transit.

Yes, the boys who helped bring you the Coombs-Wells Memorial Money Pit, a.k.a St. John's Sports and Entertainment and the Mile One Stadium,  have developed a sudden, overwhelming concern for the taxpayer's bank balance.

Let's just take a second while you catch your breath and stop laughing.

Someone may have to get Nan a wee medicinal dram.  The shock of finding out Keith Coombs, Art Puddister and Doc O'Keefe don't want to piss her pension cheque down the nearest toilet is likely to give her the vapours.

According to O'Keefe, city staff figure the Green Shift will cost the city an extra $800,000 in 2012.

To put that in perspective, the annual city budget is currently over $175 million.  Over the past two years O'Keefe and his fellows at city hall boosted the subsidy to the Mile One money pit by more than double the extra 800K.

In making his nakedly partisan attack on the Green Shift, O'Keefe ignored the other aspects of the Liberal plan including federal cash for improvements to public infrastructure, public transit and energy efficiency for homes and buildings.

To really put this in perspective, O'Keefe is one of the crew that agitated for the government gasoline price fixing scheme currently screwing citizens of the province.

His sudden concern for taxpayers is a bit of a stretch.

Councilor Tom Hann - bless his heart - pointed that out to O'Keefe.  The former provincial Liberal candidate went a little gaga by dragging in the Connie Family feud but on the Green Shift part, Hann was spot on.

"I don't think we need to get into the political posturizing [sic]. I'm trying to keep this non-political," O'Keefe said.

Pull the other one, it's got bells on, Doc.

The surest way to cut down greenhouse gases in this city would be to find a way to silence the likes of Coombs, O'Keefe, Puddister and some of the others at city hall. 

Sadly, that isn't likely to happen any time soon, let alone soon enough.

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Surreality Check, SJSMP version

Courtesy of CBC's St. John's Morning Show:

1.  Revanchism Redux.  NL First candidate Greg Byrne - who has been known to back a certain revanchist provincial first minister sans doubt - expresses amazement to a CBC reporter that people follow a certain other first minister unquestioningly.

Bryne apparently has never looked in a mirror.

Byrne is pushing many completely foolish ideas about Equalization and Confederation as part of his campaign.

2.  Meanwhile at Tammany on Gower.... Tom Hann, a St. John's city councilor who was once a federal Liberal riding president in St. John's South-Mount Pearl used a moment at St. John's city council to campaign for the Family Feud.

That's the Conservative family feud, for those who missed it.

Conservative mayor Doc O'Keefe attempted to cut Hann off with an admonition that council was trying to avoid the current federal campaign.  Something about trying not to bring politics into things, something clearly not motivating Conservative O'Keefe whatsoever in his comments.

Hann denied he was campaigning.

Then Hann stated his support for the campaign.

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A new meaning to the term "bitch slap"

Wente on Mallick.

Nicely put on both the CBC and Mallick.

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