NL economy growth forecast to shrivel

TD Economics latest forecast for provincial economies has the Newfoundland and Labrador economy growing at less than one half of one percent in fiscal 2008, the lowest growth rate of any province in the country.

The quarterly forecast, issued October 16, puts real growth in gross domestic product only slightly behind that of Ontario and projects 2009 growth as being about 1.3%.

However, if the oil comments in the forecast are anything to go by, there is reason to doubt the validity of the TD Economics forecast:

After super-sized growth of 9.3% last year led by offshore oil output and exports, the Newfoundland & Labrador economy will struggle to expand, on an annual basis, in 2008. While high oil prices have helped to boost incomes (wage growth is running at 8.7% year-to-date), oil extraction is depressed due [to] the maturation of the oil fields. This will continue into 2009 and 2010. Expansions at the Hibernia and White Rose fields could help level off output, but a sustained rebound in oil production is not in the cards before 2014, which is when the Hebron project could come online.

Hebron won't start construction until about 2013/2014 - according to the project partners - and that assumes the project is sanctioned within the next 12 months.

First oil is not currently expected before 2018, assuming a very short construction.

Even at that point, Hebron will will merely replace production from some existing fields which at that point will likely have been all but exhausted.

TD Economics' forecast for Newfoundland and Labrador matches almost exactly the projections by RBC Economics. Scotiabank's 2008 forecast is higher, at 1%,  while its projection for 2009 matches the TD and RBC projection exactly.

The provincial government's budget forecast [left, Budget Speech]including a 2% shrinkage in real GDP in 2008, growth in 2009 now three times higher than that of private sector forecasters, followed by -2.8% in 2010.  The provincial government forecasts nominal GDP growth at -1.9% in 2009 and -5.0% in 2010.

The province's finance minister hasn't indicated when he will issue a mid-year economic update. He has been portraying the gloomy private sector forecasts as an improvement on the provincial government's own budget estimates.  At the same time, he hasn't reconciled his glowing revenue forecasts with the budget numbers. The contradictions remain unexplained.

While both the Premier and Memorial University economist Wade Locke have given rosy projections for the province's ability to avoid any dramatic consequences from the global crisis, it seems unlikely the Newfoundland and Labrador economy will be able to sustain Locke's pollyannaish claim that government's projections of a half billion dollar surplus will be met or exceeded.

On Wednesday, the Ontario government revised its budget estimates and is now projecting a half billion dollar shortfall for fiscal 2008.

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Crude drops. Major projects threatened?

Front-month crude oil settled at US$66.73 a barrel in trading Wednesday.  The rate for the benchmark West Texas Intermediate fell more than five dollars over the day.

Brent, the benchmark for light, sweet crude offshore Newfoundland and Labrador, finished trading at US$64.52 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Reduced demand is the key factor in the lowered prices.

Some analysts are speculating that major international projects such as oil sands and deep water offshore major be jeopardized by the falling oil prices. However, Husky Energy's John Lau is quoted by the Globe and Mail's Report on Business:

"I'm quite sure major developers with deep pockets will continue to focus on oilsands development," Mr. Lau said. "Oil sands developments are very special projects. [But] in view of the high costs and also labour shortage, most of the of the small projects are facing a lot of challenges."

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Danny's up

At the Cameron Inquiry, that is.

Not much work will be done across Newfoundland and Labrador that day as eyes will be tuned to televisions and to the live stream on the Internet.

Mark the date:  October 28.

There's a bit of history to this, with Williams lashing commission counsel and the commissioner herself after members of Williams' staff gave testimony earlier this year.

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The Big Blue Suck

Danny Williams told Provincial Conservatives on the weekend something to the effect that the federal Liberals in the province were bouyed up by Provincial Conservatives.

He said something about Liberal's claiming there was a Red Tide - which no one has been talking about - being the result of some Blue bubble or other.

Nothing could be further from the truth, as he likes to say.

For your edification, amusement and general annoyance, here are the vote results for the ridings held before this last election by the same Liberals who won them again.

Note that the only significant variation - almost the only variation at all, in fact - was in the near complete collapse of the Conservative vote.

And that's all thanks to the Family Feud.

Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls-Windsor?  Scott Simms increased his vote share as he has done in each election since 2004, but the Blue guys sank.

Ditto Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte where the family Feud just killed off Connies.  It didn't migrate appreciably to anyone else.

And then there's Labrador.  You needn't worry about the smaller parties. 

Just look at the Blue Line.

Almost too small to even notice.

In many parts of the province, the only noise in the election was a big sucking sound for the Blue team.

Comfortable words

According to the provincial premiers, "Canada's economic fundamentals are sound".

Like we haven't heard that one before, and not from Dubya and Steve, either.

There's nothing like an international economic crisis to end the go-it-alone talk, either.

"We're here to indicate to Canadians that we're prepared to act as a united front. We're in good shape, which is not to say there aren't problems, but we're in the best situation in the world."

The premiers apparently agreed to drop inter-provincial trade barriers as one sign of viewing the country as a whole.

People in Newfoundland and Labrador are all too familiar with the go-it-alone stuff, but they've grown so used to the contradictions between the words and the actions, they'll likely wonder how come the two have suddenly matched up on the "we are all Canadians" side.

It's like telling a crowd of Provincial Conservatives in Corner Brook that "[t]his great provincial party has taken our province in a whole new direction towards 'have' status and self-reliance. No more give aways, no more begging from others.…" right after sending the latest round of begging letters to Ottawa.

Jack Harris coined a phrase that will go down in local political history.

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The Big Blue Shaft

After this week's Provincial Conservative convention in Corner Brook, there can be no doubt who approved the Blue Shaft for the opposition caucus budget.

"...So prepare yourselves Yvonne and Lorraine, 'cause the honeymoon is over."

Bond Papers readers won't be surprised by this.  As pointed out in September, the Family Feud caused dissension in the ranks and no one had to eavesdrop on Timmies customers to pick up the disgruntled views of Provincial Conservatives.  Some were fried at the idea of turning on their federal cousins, brothers and sisters. Others thought the Feud would only strengthen the provincial opposition.

Premier Danny Williams put those fears to rest by calling off the Feud the day after the election at the same time as three of his senior caucus mates gave the Shaft to the opposition.

It didn't take long for the conciliatory tone and the shift in Williams' targeting to resonate with Conservatives in the province:

"I'm glad we're turning a corner there," O'Brien said. "It would be nice for him to finally just say it: a Conservative is a Conservative is a Conservative, a Tory is a Tory is a Tory, [and] not constantly distinguish between the two.

"The provincial party and the federal party have slightly different names, but it's the same people, the same family."

Uh huh.

The same family. 

Like some of us didn't know that already.

Williams event went so far as to claim that the Williams Family Feud  caused the Liberal victories in the recent federal election;  he attributed the Liberal rise to a deep blue wave of Provincial Conservatives.

Not exactly.

West of Goobies, the only impact the Feud had was to suppress Conservative votes in the province.

East of Goobies, the Feud suppressed Conservative votes in Avalon to the point where Scott Andrews took the seat with a tiny increase in the Liberal vote. In St. John's East, Provincial Conservatives turned out en masse to back New Democrat Jack Harris, Williams' former law partner.

Harris enjoyed public declarations of support from the Provincial Conservative caucus, as did St. John's South-Mount pearl Liberal candidate Siobhan Coady.  So pronounced were the Provincial Conservatives' declarations of support for specific candidates in the two St. John's ridings one could easily imagine a list had been drawn up and handed down.

However, in St. John's South-Mount Pearl, Coady wasn't the beneficiary of any influx of Blue voters. In a result that could almost be seen as local Conservatives thumbing their nose at the Feud's preference, New Democrat Ryan Cleary picked up twice as many new votes as did his Liberal rival.  Coady still won the seat but the race was nip and tuck through most of the evening as returns poured in.  If those votes were Conservatives, twice as many voted for Cleary than Coady and more even stayed home than Coady polled in new votes compared to her previous outing in 2006.

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Early cabinet shuffle...by CBC NL Online

A provincial cabinet shuffle has been in the works for a while.

Ministers like Kevin O'Brien have made themselves practically a public nuisance on any call-in show imaginable in the past few weeks to pay homage to the backside of their boss, all in hopes of getting a plum at the next cabinet table.

O'Brien, you may recall, was handed a demotion not so long ago, going from the business department to being the fellow who oversees the people who hand out permits and licenses. It's all good stuff but hardly the kind of position for a minister with ambition.

Merv Wiseman, recently a federal Conservative candidate shafted by the provincial agriculture federation in a tasteless display of partisan politics, managed to best O'Brien, at least as far as CBC Newfoundland and Labrador's website was concerned.

An eagle-eyed reader noticed a blurb on the right hand side, took a screen capture and even circled the thing to make sure no one would miss it.

In the ongoing nurses dispute, CBC has video of cabinet ministers "Tom Marshall and Merv Wiseman" giving the government response to the nurses' contract demands.

That should have read Ross Wiseman.

Meanwhile, keep trying Kevin. The Premier says there's two weeks left before he gets around to sorting out the cabinet seating plan. He's had other things on his mind of late.

A tip of the soft cap to EM. At this rate, we'll have to start offering prizes. Stay tuned, on that front.

Update: The CBC webmaster corrected the blurb at some point on Tuesday morning.

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...and then there's advertising

which tells a story.

Like in this 1973 advert for Hovis, a bread maker in the United Kingdom.  Directed by Ridley Scott, the television spot has been a persistent favourite in Britain and has been voted as the best television ad of all time.

Look at it.

Feel it.

That's what you do with anything by Ridley Scott.

You see it and feel it and, in 45 seconds or so you feel you want a slice of the bread.

Scott might have difficulty making the same spot today, given that the changes in Britain have likely made it hard for a goodly chunk of the audience to understand broad Yorkshire.

Hovis is currently running a new television ad, also directed by Ridley Scott, that plays off a element of the original. The full length spot runs two minutes, but it also exists in shorter versions more likely to wind up on the telly.

There's not a clothesline in sight, at least not as the feature carrying the thing.

This is another advertisement built on a story and on a feeling.  Men of any age or background can relate to running an errand to the store, of kicking a can or to the thrill of being overflown by a Spitfire.

The feelings of nostalgia and warmth of home are key elements of Scott's two minutes.

Imagine what he could do if they gave him 113.

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There's advertising...

Ad agencies from across Atlantic Canada took home awards at the annual ICE awards held in Halifax on October 16th.

Expect to see a news release from the provincial tourism department any day now claiming that the ad program - as opposed to the marketers' creativity - is winning awards for the pitcher plant logo brand thingy.

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Hugo under pressure

Venezuela must be experiencing severe economic difficulties.

Hugo Chavez wants the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to cut production in an effort to get oil prices about US$80 a barrel.

Good luck with that, Hugo.

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What's up now, Doc?

A policy windsock, that's what.

Supposedly the chief Family Feud campaigner, Danny Williams, and the entire Provincial Conservative caucus understood that if no Conservative seats in Newfoundland and Labrador meant that there would be no member of parliament would take up the cabinet job of being the province's regional representative in the event the Conservatives were re-elected.

Of course, Williams understood:

But Williams is not worried about the lack of representation. He said the three previous government MPs failed to advance major issues such as custodial management of the fishery and a loan guarantee for the Lower Churchill River hydroelectric project in Labrador.

He said the province will now have seven strong Opposition MPs at the federal level.

People who supported the Family Feud - including Provincial Conservatives like St. John's mayor Doc O'Keefe - understood that as well.

So how come Doc is now trying to orchestrate a campaign to undo the situation that he and his party leader created in the first place?

If Doc feels some obligation to stick his municipal nose into federal/provincial relations now that the election is over, he had an obligation to his honker into the campaign a few weeks ago pointing out the gigantic problem - apparently as he finds it now - inherent in the campaign against the federal Conservatives run by their Provincial Conservative confreres.

Instead of that, O'Keefe and his Provincial Conservative mates on council were doing their own little bit of partisan campaigning against the Liberal Party.

No one should be surprised by this at all, given O'Keefe's record on council for shifting positions more often than most of us change underwear.

Nor, for that matter, should anyone be surprised that the Premier himself appears to be taking an entirely new position on the issue of cabinet representation from the one he held a few days ago:

Premier Williams says it is the Prime Minister's perogative to make cabinet appointments. However he notes, Prime Minister Stephen Harper has a couple of options. He says the Prime Minister could appoint Senator Ethel Cochrane to the Senate or he could fill the vacancy in the Senate and then appoint that person to cabinet.

For his part, the Prime Minister has already said he will appoint a regional minister from among the elected members of his caucus. in other words: no senate appointments.

That makes eminent sense, given that this is exactly what defence minister Peter MacKay said plainly during the campaign and the Prime Minister has spoken about senate reform as a priority for his new administration.

Now five years into the current provincial administration, one gets the sense that major items of public policy are made up on the fly. Positions are shifted based on something other than a sound and detailed analysis.

If memory serves, this is a point made before here at Bond Papers and elsewhere.

This tendency for policy to follow the whim of the moment is ultimately what undermines the effectiveness of the provincial government. People don't know which statement is the real statement.

Is the Prime Minister a man not to be trusted, as Danny Williams said up until Tuesday's vote or is the war over, as he said on the day immediately after the vote?

Is it now possible for the Premier to do business on Wednesday with a kitten-eating lizard from outer space who had to be stopped on Tuesday?

It doesn't take much imagination to realize there is a,problem with consistency here. That problem - and it isn't new - causes people to tune out. They stop listening. If they aren't listening, then the Premier has a gigantic problem.

It's a problem entirely of his own making however.

What's more the rest of us have to hope we all don't pay a price for the windsock follies. The Premier worked the Feud to make sure he was the only spokesperson for the province.

He got what he wanted.

So we must all wonder why he and his political associates are suddenly uncomfortable with their victory.

Hang on a second.

Check the wind.

It might not be such a problem after all.

Oops.

It shifted direction again.

Problem back.

Ooooh. Hang on.

No problem, again.

You get the picture.

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Random-Burin-St. Georges: a quick look at the results

 Random-Burin-St. Georges is a relatively new seat resulting from re-apportionment before the 2004 election.

However, the seat continues to trend as a decidedly Liberal seat, carrying on the trend pre-2004.

The 2008 result is not the one to look at closely here.  rather we need to look at 2006. 

That was the year the Provincial Conservatives threw their political weight behind the federal Conservative party.

The Blue team ran a staunch Provincial Conservative closely associated with the Premier. 

She had campaigned relentlessly between 2004 and 2006 against the incumbent, largely by using a refugee family's plight in a church basement as a rod with which to beat the incumbent and his party.

It apparently escaped her notice that the party she ran for had a policy diametrically opposed to her own stated position on this issue. In the end, her campaign was also caught up in the in-out scheme even though, as these results show, Random-Burin-St. Georges was not a lost cause for the Blue team.

The New Democrats ran a candidate from outside the riding in that election.  Not surprisingly, she fared considerably worse than the popular fisheries activist the NDP had run in 2004.

In that race, the Conservatives appear to have pulled voters who had voted NDP in 2004 and added a few thousand more besides.  The Liberal candidate - Bill Matthews - also increased his vote share.  Overall, turnout in the riding increased by slightly less than 4,000  voters.

What we don't see here is a collapse of the Conservative vote.  Rather, in 2008, it sank back to what essentially appears to be its core. The New Democrat vote declined by 3244 but did not slip back to its 2006 level.  The Liberal vote declined by 1100 votes.

Overall, it would appear that the New Democrats in 2008 had picked up some soft vote that in 2006 had gone to the Conservatives.  The bulk of the 2006 Conservative vote stayed home.

More than in some others, the vote pattern in this riding may have been affected by the remittance labour force from the Burin Peninsula currently working in Alberta. Without more detailed analysis it is difficult to know how much of this vote pool actually turned out and if it did, how it voted.

Even though the 2006 incumbent did not seek re-election, this is not a riding that was affected by Family Feud as obviously as in the three ridings on the Avalon peninsula.

It is interesting to speculate, though, what might have happened had the Provincial Conservatives taken an entirely different approach in 2008.

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Friday Follies: a round-up of the week's odds and ends

1.  Pete didn't get the memo:  Peter MacKay apparently didn't hear about the kiss-and-make-up comments from his boss the Prime Minister and Danny Williams over this whole Family Feud thingy.  Speaking with the Chronicle Herald, the guy touted as being minister responsible for Newfoundland and Labrador laid it on the line:

“I think he’s just cooling his jets until his next blow-up," said Mr. MacKay. “He’s got a mercurial personality and all indications are that the next time that the wind changes or he feels offended, he’ll go off like a mad hatter again."

Mr. MacKay, who will likely end up as Newfoundland and La­brador’s representative at federal cabinet, said the premier of Newfoundland and Labrador “has lost the plot."

“It did become so irrational and personally vindictive on the part of a Conservative premier," he said.

Ermmm.

It wasn't the Mad Hatter that went about shouting "Off with her head."

2.  That's so 1960s:  Also in the Chronicle Herald, the accumulated wisdom of a few of Halifax's advertising geniuses.  Like, for instance, Don Veinish from Cossette Atlantic:

Danny Williams’s ABC campaign sure seemed to work, but I have to plead ignorance on whether it involved advertising or not.

Thanks for paying attention, Donny.

Then again, you just about prove the point you made:

People these days are exposed to the best of everything in the communications arena, including advertising. OK-ish ad efforts aren’t OK because they don’t meet the standard and tend to be disregarded or entirely disdained. Bottom line: If advertising had made much of a difference, there would be a difference today. There isn’t.

Speaking of not meeting the standard and tending to be disregarded, wonder how Don would feel about the idea of a billboard on the Gardiner? 

3.  Dons and Peelers:  Turns out that both some local bands of bobbies as well as Oxford University (as well as 11 other universities and assorted government entities) were stunned enough to squirrel away money in Icelandic banks.

4. Suck AND Blow:  New Labour starts to look a lot like old Conservatives, right down to the complete absence of logic:

[Culture (!!!???) secretary Andy] Burnham said that the "online challenge" had resulted in two dangerous tendencies emerging.

Firstly he criticized the burgeoning tendency in television to mimic the user-generated, "here's my blog" feel of much of the Internet, particularly in current affairs and news.

"The Internet as a whole is an excellent source of casual opinion," he said. "TV is where people often look for expert or authoritative opinion."

The second reaction to the rise of the Internet has been a "tendency towards safety first and the tried-and-tested, and way from innovation, risk-taking and new talent", he argued.

So on the one hand television is tending toward innovation, risk-taking and new talent by aping the Internet but at the same time, television is tending away from innovation, risk-taking and new talent.

The only challenge here would seem to come for Andy when thought is involved in his activities. [h/t to Guido Fawkes]

5. Blow and Suck:  Also from Guido, the story of a pollster in a conflict of interest.  Speaking of conflict of interest, thank heavens no pollsters in eastern Canada would do work for government and at the same time release poll results without disclosing that government had helped fund the poll on local politicians' popularity or lack thereof. 

Like say upwards of four times a year?

Nah.

Could never happen.

6.  Blown away?  A google blog search for "danny williams + intimidation" turned up two links to a blog by Paul Russell from Newfoundland and Labrador called Life, Writing and Everything Else.

They contained two references to alleged political intimidation.

Click on the link and you'll find that...

wait for it...

 

 

 

 

 

The blog's gone.

Suddenly.

Not just the posts.

The whole blog.

Hmmm.

Now it's not like he violated the broadcast prohibitions under the Canada Elections Act like at least one local blog did on Tuesday night.

Even if that were the case, the worst that could happen would be a fine.

A big fine.

But not death to the entire operation.

Nope.

Paul Russell, if you're out there, drop us a line and let us know what happened to your blog and those posts.

After all, they're just allegations and as long as they are labeled as such and unless and until someone brings forward evidence to back up the claims, no one should have a problem with it.

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Auspicious beginnings

1.  Useful in a Conservative campaign news release with a quote critical of your own party that gets

2.  Highlighted by the Conservative's national newspaper in a story that mentions his

3.  Attack on the leader of his party [Hint: The Lampoon  love quoting Liberals knifing other Liberals in the back] and

4.  the guy's not even sworn in yet.

Yes, with fresh ideas like this, Liberals are well on their way back to power.

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Avalon: a quick look at the results

If there ever was a campaign which showed the power of negative campaigning, it's Avalon.

From a time well before the writ dropped, incumbent Conservative Fabian Manning received countless vicious personal attacks.

That includes a reference to Manning as a "traitor" by no less than Premier Danny Williams. That savage rhetoric continued throughout the campaign from many quarters, including from a strong supporter of the Andrews and Harris campaigns.

Liberal Scott Andrews, the only serious competitor piled on relentlessly, lightening up only for the last week or two.

That didn't mean the attacks stopped since the Family Feud deployed at least three cabinet ministers to the area north of the Trans-Canada Highway to work their persuasive magic on local Provincial Conservatives.

Through all that, Manning did phenomenally better than his colleagues in the St. John's ridings. In St. John's East, the Conservatives captured only 20% of the vote from 2006.  In St. John's South-Mount Pearl, 26% of the vote held.

In Avalon, Manning held on to about 60% of his vote from 2006.  Still and all, he lost 7590 votes.

Interestingly enough, the drop in voter turn out and the increased vote for Green, Liberal and New Democrat candidates totals 7582.  That's not likely a coincidence.

What's noticeable in Avalon is that the lost votes didn't migrate to another party. They appear to have just stayed home in large numbers.

Scott Andrews increased the Liberal vote by 4%, or 548 votes. 

The largest jump in votes for any candidate was in the New Democrat column which saw a 70% jump (2343 votes). If those votes came from disgruntled Provincial Conservatives, the attractiveness of New Democrats would largely be defined by one quality:  they aren't Liberals. The same quality likely had a strong influence on Blue voter choice in the St. John's ridings for those who came out to vote.

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The Blue Shaft

Narrow partisan considerations reared their ugly head in a meeting of the legislature's management committee.

An independent study commissioned by the House of Assembly management commission recommends an increase in budgets for the Provincial Conservative, Liberal and New Democratic causes in the House of Assembly.

MR. SPEAKER: Okay. Provide base funding for the Government Members’ Caucus of $100,000 annually.

The Chair is ready for discussion.

Ms Burke.

MS BURKE: That is one recommendation that I support.

Joan Burke, education minister and government house leader may have enthusiastically voted money for her political friends but in the end, the Provincial Conservative members of the legislature's internal management commission support every single recommendation, except one. 

That one allocated $162,000 to the Official Opposition office to ensure a well-funded opposition that would have appropriate resources to carry out its important legislative function in a modern democracy.  The study reviewed legislature budgets across Canada and in several foreign parliaments.

The report included a set of general principles on democratic legislatures and caucus funding. They included, among others:

3. The legislature must be strong vis-à-vis the executive in order for democratic government to be effective.

...

5. In adversarial systems, the Opposition and other parties play important roles and need institutionalized protections.

...

One cannot imagine a more straightforward set of principles.  In order to drive home their point on the importance of a legislature with a properly funded opposition, the authors included an observation on events in several provinces where opposition benches were depleted after an election:

The crucial thing is that there has to be informed opposition, and that takes resources. However, one other consideration is germane here. That is that in first-past-the-post (single member plurality) systems such as those that exist in Canada, there is a danger of opposition shut-outs or quasi shut-outs as the electoral system exaggerates the winner’s share of seats. This has been seen in general elections in the provinces of Newfoundland and Labrador, PEI, New Brunswick, Alberta and British Columbia. There needs to be a kind of “Opposition Bill of Rights” to deal with such anomalies, since Westminster systems
depend on adversarialism.

The Provincial Conservative members took a decidedly different view. Innovation minister Trevor Taylor put it this way:

MR. TAYLOR: Mr. Chairman, I don’t need to reiterate everything that Ms Burke just said, but I think if you just look at it from a perspective, a base allocation, one would think that a base allocation would be a base for all caucuses. Why the principles of Metrics EFG would differentiate is hard for me to follow, to be honest about it. [Emphasis added]

That last statement could not be more painfully obvious or true.

The extent to which the Provincial Conservative members also picked at petty issues is evident in the transcript of the session.  Education minister Joan Burke seemed concerned either to micromanage issues - as with Memorial University - or to ensure that no one got a few dollars more in his or her budget than she had available in hers:

MS BURKE: I have a question on that, and I think it may be just a clarification.

It says that the assistant to the Opposition House Leader is $49,000 and the assistant to the Government House Leader is $43,000. So, is this simply a case where there is a step progression but it would be the same job?

Okay, I just wanted to clarify that because in the report it kind of stands out as to why and I thought that would have been the explanation.

MR. SPEAKER: Yes. My understanding is that the assistant to the Leader of the Opposition has gone through the step progression to reflect that salary, and the assistant to the Government House Leader will do the incremental steps to get up to that particular salary as well.

MS BURKE: In essence what we are saying is, instead of it being, say, $49,000 there, that would depend, I guess – that is only an indication of where an individual would be on a step. If that position changed tomorrow, that $49,000 could potentially be, I do not know, $38,000 or $39,000.

Outside the meeting the Provincial Conservatives defended their actions as being about responsible management of public spending. 

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St. John's East: a quick look at the results

Jack Harris was the beneficiary of a double whammy on Tuesday.

First of all, Danny Williams' former law partner profited from the near total collapse of the Conservative vote as a result of the Family feud.

Well known Provincial Conservative Ed Buckingham's appearance at Jack's campaign launch foretold a considerable movement of Blue to Orange.

It was no accident.

Provincial cabinet ministers supported Harris publicly.  Even without turning out at Jack's headquarters, they could easily mobilise their own teams to drive votes to the polls for Harris.

Second of all, Harris profited from the  collapse of the Liberal vote, attributable almost entirely to Walter Noel's candidacy. While less dramatic than the Conservative drop, the Liberal candidate shed over 9000 votes all of which appear to have moved to the New Democrats on their own.

In some media interviews Harris pointed to an increased voter turnout in the riding, as if that showed some ground swell of support for his candidacy beyond the Family Feud effect.

Horse hockey.

The increase in turnout from 2006 was 875, a mere 2% jump.

The tale of the electoral tape in St. John's East is easy to see. Add the NDP 2006 number to the difference in votes for the Liberals and Conservatives.  You'll find yourself close as can be to Harris' vote count.

Early commentary suggested that Harris' win and the strong showing of former Independent editor Ryan Cleary in St. John's South-Mount Pearl marked some radical new age for the province's New Democrats:

“I think one of the stories of this election is the real dawning of a new day for the NDP in this province,” said [Memorial University political science professor Christopher] Dunn. “It really has firm urban roots here now.”

In fact, the NDP’s Ryan Cleary was neck in neck with Liberal Siobhan Coady in St. John’s South-Mount Pearl for most of the night, before Coady pulled away taking the seat by 1,047 votes, a mere three per cent difference in the popular vote between the two.

“It also shows the NDP is becoming very serious about its choice of candidates. When they run candidates with high profiles, they do very well,” continued Dunn who called Harris a “force to be reckoned with.”

That's not the case if one assesses where the vote came from.

In both St. John's East and St. John's South-Mount Pearl, the surge in New Democrat votes came predominantly from Provincial Conservatives.  Of Harris' total vote, about half came from the Provincial Conservatives. Another political alignment will rob the NDP of that support just as easily as it was delivered.

One point doesn't make a trend, but another kind will burst a few bubbles.

Pop!

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St. John's South-Mount Pearl: a quick look at the results

The Family Feud had a pretty clear impact on the vote result in St. John's South-Mount Pearl.

The difference between the Conservative vote in 2006 and the Conservative vote in 2008 is the increase in Liberal and New Democrat vote, a smattering of votes for the other candidates and a large group (almost 3,000) that apparently didn't vote.

These would be almost entirely Provincial Conservatives who were constrained in their choices by activities within their own normal political camp.

The New Democrats were primary beneficiary of the Feud with an increased vote of 5810.  Some 2927 didn't vote, apparently.  The Liberal vote share increased by 2635.

Overall turnout was slightly above that of 2004 - when there was another spat within the Conservative party - but the total count of eligible voters increased as well from 2004 to 2008.

Liberal and New Democratic vote share did not change appreciably from 2004 to 2006.  The increase in Conservative vote in 2006, compared to 2004, can be attributed to a suppression that resulted from internal problems between the Provincial and federal Conservatives.  In 2006, the Provincial Conservatives supported their federal brethren openly.

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The real ABC goal

Bond Paper's post election summary:

"...the Blue Machine is a better friend than enemy, at least for other Blue people."

Danny Williams' post-election summary:

“If there had been a good rapport … they possibly could have 150 seats. That would put them in striking distance of a majority,” he said.

Ahem.

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The NL election summary

1.  Since 1949, Newfoundlanders and Labradorians have typically voted in the majority anything but Conservative in federal elections.  Biggest thing to remember, but every single one of the media types and most of the local pundits just got lost in the Family Feud hype.  It spilled over into national reporting which was - for the most part - facile.

2.  The biggest impact of the Family Feud in 2008 was to bleed the federal Conservatives of candidates, money and volunteers.  It also suppressed the Conservative vote since Provincial Conservatives typically vote for their federal cousins.

Take a look at the results.  Turn outs are down.  The people who didn't vote are mostly Blue people.

The Conservatives got a taste of the Feud in 2004 when the Provincial Conservatives didn't turn out in any numbers for their friends.  There was no organized campaign, but there was a chill.

3.  St. John's East.  Jack Harris profited from picking up some of the Blue vote but his real surge came from the near total collapse of the Liberal vote. That wasn't ABC.  That was ABW.

4.  Avalon.  A couple of big changes in the last two weeks helped to really make the difference. 

First, Scott Andrews toned down the shrill rhetoric and started to sound like a member of parliament. He started to sound like someone to vote for instead of a guy picking up votes against someone else.  That seems to have had its biggest impact in the part of the riding north of the Trans Canada Highway which, for the most part, has tended to vote Red in federal elections.

Andrews was working hard anyway but as he started to sound more like the guy most of us know, it looks like he shifted votes.

Second, the Provincial Conservatives deployed some of their cabinet ministers and workers to twist arms. Whether that pulled votes to Andrews or suppressed Blue votes, the result was the same.

5.  St. John's South-Mount Pearl.  Midway through the election, poll results showed the Liberals and New Democrats holding onto their vote shares from the past two elections. The Blue votes sat in the undecided category.

At the polls, the Blues came out in a split between Orange and Red, with both picking up nearly equal shares.  Incumbency has its advantages if they can be understood and used effectively.

6.  Random-Burin-St. Georges.  Not a seat that figured in most people's "Watch" list since it's usually gone Red, but the story here is one of an experienced campaigner who worked hard to get the nomination and then to win the seat.  Judy Foote is a former provincial cabinet minister and someone to watch for in the months ahead.  She's tough and savvy and the two Liberal newbies would do well to watch closely what Judy does.

7.  The future.  The lesson of this election is that a divided Blue team leaves the field open. If the Conservatives can heal the rift, then the next federal election could turn out quite differently. Given the seat counts, Provincial Conservatives could have wielded gigantic  - maybe even unprecedented  - influence if they'd turned out for their friends and looked to turn more seats Blue.  They have a machine and they could have used it for niceness, at least for Conservatives.

Instead, they opted to cut throats. 

That might be too much for their brethren to forgive.  Then again, the game theorists in Ottawa might realize that even confined to a single province, the Blue Machine is a better friend than enemy, at least for other Blue people.

If the rift heals, then the next election could have vastly different results.

Jack Harris will have a time facing the likes of Beth Marshall in St. John's East.   Siobhan Coady will face someone like Tom Osborne who comes backed with a family clan that dominates the metro St. John's Conservative scene.

In Avalon, we might expect Fabian Manning to try a comeback.  He'll get some kind of reward for his loyalty.  Depending on what it is, he could be spending the next few months working hard to win back the seat he held until tonight.

The votes might be counted in seven sits, but this fight ain't over yet.

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