1. Since 1949, Newfoundlanders and Labradorians have typically voted in the majority anything but Conservative in federal elections. Biggest thing to remember, but every single one of the media types and most of the local pundits just got lost in the Family Feud hype. It spilled over into national reporting which was - for the most part - facile.
2. The biggest impact of the Family Feud in 2008 was to bleed the federal Conservatives of candidates, money and volunteers. It also suppressed the Conservative vote since Provincial Conservatives typically vote for their federal cousins.
Take a look at the results. Turn outs are down. The people who didn't vote are mostly Blue people.
The Conservatives got a taste of the Feud in 2004 when the Provincial Conservatives didn't turn out in any numbers for their friends. There was no organized campaign, but there was a chill.
3. St. John's East. Jack Harris profited from picking up some of the Blue vote but his real surge came from the near total collapse of the Liberal vote. That wasn't ABC. That was ABW.
4. Avalon. A couple of big changes in the last two weeks helped to really make the difference.
First, Scott Andrews toned down the shrill rhetoric and started to sound like a member of parliament. He started to sound like someone to vote for instead of a guy picking up votes against someone else. That seems to have had its biggest impact in the part of the riding north of the Trans Canada Highway which, for the most part, has tended to vote Red in federal elections.
Andrews was working hard anyway but as he started to sound more like the guy most of us know, it looks like he shifted votes.
Second, the Provincial Conservatives deployed some of their cabinet ministers and workers to twist arms. Whether that pulled votes to Andrews or suppressed Blue votes, the result was the same.
5. St. John's South-Mount Pearl. Midway through the election, poll results showed the Liberals and New Democrats holding onto their vote shares from the past two elections. The Blue votes sat in the undecided category.
At the polls, the Blues came out in a split between Orange and Red, with both picking up nearly equal shares. Incumbency has its advantages if they can be understood and used effectively.
6. Random-Burin-St. Georges. Not a seat that figured in most people's "Watch" list since it's usually gone Red, but the story here is one of an experienced campaigner who worked hard to get the nomination and then to win the seat. Judy Foote is a former provincial cabinet minister and someone to watch for in the months ahead. She's tough and savvy and the two Liberal newbies would do well to watch closely what Judy does.
7. The future. The lesson of this election is that a divided Blue team leaves the field open. If the Conservatives can heal the rift, then the next federal election could turn out quite differently. Given the seat counts, Provincial Conservatives could have wielded gigantic - maybe even unprecedented - influence if they'd turned out for their friends and looked to turn more seats Blue. They have a machine and they could have used it for niceness, at least for Conservatives.
Instead, they opted to cut throats.
That might be too much for their brethren to forgive. Then again, the game theorists in Ottawa might realize that even confined to a single province, the Blue Machine is a better friend than enemy, at least for other Blue people.
If the rift heals, then the next election could have vastly different results.
Jack Harris will have a time facing the likes of Beth Marshall in St. John's East. Siobhan Coady will face someone like Tom Osborne who comes backed with a family clan that dominates the metro St. John's Conservative scene.
In Avalon, we might expect Fabian Manning to try a comeback. He'll get some kind of reward for his loyalty. Depending on what it is, he could be spending the next few months working hard to win back the seat he held until tonight.
The votes might be counted in seven sits, but this fight ain't over yet.
-srbp-
