Ho hum

While rookie member of parliament Siobhan Coady leaped past considerably more experienced caucus mates to get a post as the fisheries and oceans critic (and good on her), the last Dion shadow cabinet seems to be a case of sticking the Newfoundlander in charge of the fish.

Sure Coady has a family business in the fishery and therefore knows something about things that live in the ocean and the people who make a living - such as it is in most cases - from it.

But for far too long, Newfoundland and Labrador has been politically regarded as the home of fish and whine.

Count up the number of times fisheries and oceans in any party has gone to a Newfoundlander since 1949 either as minister or as an opposition critic. You'll quickly get the point.

There are more than a few substantive problems with this of course. 

First, there is an inherent conflict of interest in putting in charge of the fisheries department a politician with ties to the fishing industry.  That no one seems bothered by this is a sign that the fishing industry has no political clout in the country even though it is a significant economic sector in several provinces.

Second, there is an even greater conflict created by putting in charge of fisheries (or acting as the critic) any politician from a province where the fishery is less a business than a Frankenstein exercise in social engineering.

The tinfoil hat brigade, the anti-Confederate sasquatch hunters will leap forward to blame the evil machinations of "Ottawa" for the plight of the local industry.  The sad reality is that the current mess is entirely the construction of the political, social and business interests of Newfoundland and Labrador, over successive generations, who have forestalled, undermined and otherwise opposed any real and positive reform.

In Newfoundland and Labrador, the fishery is a cult.  As with any cult, it has its high priests who will rush to the temple altar - in this case the local open line shows and fisheries broadcast - to declare any reformer as a traitor, as a heretic.  It is an inbred cult where satisfaction comes from shagging your own.  Onlookers are distracted from the spectacle by the claim that outsiders have covetous designs on the defiled or that foreigners need to be driven from what is left of the sanctuary.   

Of course, there is also the third problem, namely the perpetual death struggle between local and national politicians. Williams penchant for whining and his love of personal attacks first on Loyola Hearn and then Fabian Manning, only added to the problem lately and gave the Conservative death struggle its unique characteristics.  Theirs is just the latest racket, though,  in what has been, essentially, an interminable struggle.

Consider, if you will, two groups of politicians sitting in a meeting room, discussing not how best to help unshackle the legion of wage-slaves chained to the splitting tables,  but rather jockeying to avoid being the one to take the political flack from the cultists. 

If any political party in Canada had any real interest in the people involved in the fishery, they would never appoint anyone from this province to serve as fisheries minister or as critic of the department.  Nor would they appoint someone from a neighbouring fisheries provinces who does little more than mouth the worship words of the local cultists.

And if any politician from this province wanted to do anything for the fishery other than perpetuate the misery in it, he or she would refuse any political responsibility for it either in cabinet or opposition. Better leave the job to someone not already seduced by the cultists.

Sadly, in the the New Democratic opposition and now the Liberal shadow cabinet, we have the same old cycle repeating itself once again.

As far as this appointment goes, Siobhan Coady has done alright for herself;  it's quite a plum and we get a fresh face on the scene.

But for the fishery? 

We'd venture there'll just be more of the same.

Wait.

What's that on the wind?

Could it be a news release on custodial management?

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No sense of shame

From a news release by government House leader Joan Burke in an announcement that the provincial legislature would re-open for its fall sitting on November 25th:

The sitting of the legislature is an important part of our democratic process.

Yes it is.

Well, it would be if the opposition didn't have to shame Burke into making an announcement.  In past years, the party house leaders shared information informally so that they could be properly prepared to engage in, as Burke puts it, "productive session with respectful and healthy debate on the legislative agenda".  That's a pattern of non-partisan co-operation that dates back decades in the legislature.

Word from the hallways of the legislature is that so far Burke has shown her opposition counterparts the same regard as she's given to the Memorial University Act, the Memorial University board of regents and senate and university president Eddy Campbell.  Her approach so far is pretty much in keeping with her small-minded approach to funding the opposition parties, well at least the Liberal one.

No indication would she give of when the House would open and so far no advance warning, in confidence, of what general areas would be coming up for debate.  No indication that is until after opposition House leader Kelvin Parsons issued a news release pointing to "a continuous trend developing in this province that our current government will wait until the absolute last minute to open the legislature and then rush towards closure in the shortest time possible."

Still no word on the legislative agenda apparently nd Parsons is likely not holding his breath.  Burke will probably let him know a couple of days beforehand.

Seems that Burke is playing the petty partisan game just as roughly as her boss does, but then again, contempt  - whether for the traditions of the House or the legislature itself - is a hallmark of the current administration since it first took the government benches in 2003.

That's what makes Burke's references to the democratic process such a nose puller. 

Expect the session to be shorter than normal, since the opposition is likely going to be pushing the government hard.  Under the circumstances, given the stress from the financial hard times cabinet is wrestling with and given that Burke herself will come under scrutiny for her hand in the Memorial University mess,  the government's real lack of regard for the legislature and the democratic process will shine through.

After all, that's what happened in December 2006 when they last faced some serious problems.

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Free Newfoundland!

From a comment by Wallace Ryan on a cbc.ca/nl story:

Despite the ugly words of Canadians, Newfoundlanders and Labradorians are finally closer to our dream of returning to those pre-WWI days when we were a rich nation full of promise and bravery.

I think it's time for us to reassert our nationhood and reclaim our heritage that has been sullied too long by Canadians. The only way we are to survive the demographic time bomb that threatens to make Newfoundland and Labrador second class citizens in this supposedly equal confederation is to reconstitute ourselves as an independent nation.

I'm sick of hearing our proud people maligned and mocked by our so-called fellow Canadians. I'm not a Canadian. I'm a proud citizen of the nation of Newfoundland and Labrador.

Free Newfoundland and Labrador.
Vive Newfoundland et Labrador Libre!

Ah yes, the glorious days before the Great War.

Political corruption, religious segregation, poverty, disease, health care and education that rivaled anything found in a modern underdeveloped country.

Such a glorious place that a huge portion of the first volunteers were rejected because they did not meet the minimum requirements of being 5 ft 2 inches in height with a chest measurement of 35 inches.

Sheer heaven!

We must free Newfoundland.

We must free it, that is,  of such unashamed ignorance.

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Super-COD

A Lockheed Aircraft video of launch and recovery trials of a modified Marine Corps KC-130F Hercules on the aircraft carrier U.S.S. Forrestal (CVA-59).

This gives new meaning to carrier on-board delivery.

The burst bubble

Only a few short weeks ago, Premier Danny Williams was claiming that Newfoundland and Labrador would be largely immune from the global economic crisis because it was protected by some sort of magical fiscal bubble.

On Thursday, Williams acknowledged that the bubble burst:

"But going out next year [2009] and the years forward … once you get into the $60 range, then you are starting to look at deficit situations."

Of course to anyone paying attention, Williams' magical bubble claim was preposterous:

1. The provincial government knew for some time  - pre-dating the October 2003 general election - that oil production would decline this year and every year from here onward.
2. The Auditor General, among others, has warned as recently as this past spring that massive increases in public spending since 2005 built on highly volatile  - and hence unreliable - commodity prices were unsustainable in the long run.
3. In October, Dominion Bond Rating Service changed the trending on the provincial government's finances from positive to stable with a cautionary note in its detailed analysis about the heavy dependence on volatile commodity prices.
4. Historic trending, coupled with an analysis of the causes of high oil prices in recent years, strongly suggested a correction would occur.  it was only a question of when the correction would occur.

New wells at White Rose and Hibernia will not restore oil output to the peak level, no matter what the price.  Rather it merely slows the rate of decline.

Hebron is not around the corner.  Even if it is sanctioned within the next twelve months, Hebron will not come on stream until sometime after 2018.  At that point, it will merely replace White Rose, Terra Nova and Hibernia which by that time will have ceased production or be on the verge of being tapped out.  One field cannot replace three.

Of course, we are already looking at deficits on a cash basis.  Bond Papers readers have known that for months.  There have been a series of posts highlighting economic forecasts of extremely poor growth in gross domestic product, forecasts that have only forecast even further shrinkage in the economy. 

On top of that, however, several specific posts addressed in detail the factors contributing to the current and future economic problems to be faced:

• On 27 October, a post described exactly the scenario the Premier confirmed on Thursday. In fact, that post underestimated the scope of the problem by assuming a much higher premium for oil sold in American dollars and then converted to Canadian dollars on a 30% premium.  The Canadian dollar has been trading at a 20% and Brent crude is trading - as of this writing - at around US$51 to $52.  That would translate to about $700 million less in oil revenue next year than this year.  This year's budget already projected a cash deficit of $414 million on current and capital account.
• A 12 March post titled "We live in a fiscal house of cards" describes the massive spending increases over the past four.
• A 21 March post titled "What goes up must come down" described the shaky foundation on which the spending was built.
• A 25 March post titled "Hebron and old people" highlighted two fiscal challenges well known to the provincial government that would boost spending at the very time that - even without a massive economic downturn - would strain the treasury.  One - the impact of demographics - has been known for decades and is unavoidable.  The other - debt for oil projects - was discretionary.

That last one is only one major item which will add to the provincial government's financial burden.  The money needed for the 5% shares of Hebron and White Rose, and possibly for a 10% share of Hibernia South will have to be borrowed, either from lenders or from the other partners.  That debt is not optional any more and in the case of Hebron, there will be no revenue for at least a decade from that project which would make the debt self-sustaining.

Any cuts to government spending in the coming months and years will further tighten the local economy and consumer spending.  The St. John's housing market, for example, is enjoying a boom built almost entirely on public spending.  Some have credited projects like Hebron but since that project doesn't exist yet, it's hard for it to generate anything but marginal economic activity. 

Nor has the St. John's market, for example, been buoyed by remittance workers.  Some of the boom can be traced to that source but the major beneficiaries of migrant labour revenue have been in areas like Stephenville or the Great Northern Peninsula.  St. John's remains a company town and the company is the provincial government.  Hack its spending, either in salaries, programs or capital works and you hack into the local service and retail sectors. Hack into those sectors and consumer spending, another staple of government revenue, will decline as well.

Nor can the provincial government look to other construction projects to boost the economy.  NLRC's refinery is dead.  The gas facility is rumoured to be still on track but until sod is broken, it remains nothing more than speculation.  Harvest Energy's expansion at Come by Chance has been shelved. The Lower Churchill project is also more talk than reality.

More than anything, the looming provincial government financial mess should put paid to the fairy tale that the current administration practices anything looking like prudent fiscal management.  To the contrary, it has shown repeatedly that there is little if any strategic planning to its spending beyond the need to present the best face to the polls or to have spending match income.

The current administration ignored any criticisms of its approach and specifically.  It emphatically rejected constructive alternatives to its spend-happy approach such as creating an investment fund from some non-renewable resource revenues. 

A former finance minister once forecast annual deficits of a half billion dollars a year. His successor borrowed $1.0 billion to fund public sector pensions.  The Premier himself committed to meet any future deficits with increased public debt.

By all appearances, he will get his wish.

The people of Newfoundland and Labrador will get the bill.

It didn't have to be this way.

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What part of this wasn't clear?

The wrong candidate the last time.

The wrong candidate this time.

The wrong candidate any time.

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Put on your tinfoil hats

ALCOA, the company that retained a lobbyist for two years on the Lower Churchill project, is slashing another 350,000 tonnes from its production in light of declining global demand for aluminum.

That brings the total ALCOA reduction to 615,000 tonnes this year, or 15% of the company's total production capacity.

Rio Tinto is reconsidering an $11 billion project in Saudi Arabia and Vale is also cutting output. 

Aluminum prices have plummeted by more than 40 per cent to around $1,995 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange since July as demand from industries as far afield as aerospace and soda cans has shrivelled up.

Inventories held in LME warehouses have ballooned to 1.55 million tonnes, equivalent to more than half the yearly output of Australia, a major supplier.

“Cuts, such as the one by Alcoa, and the Chinese stimulus package, could help the market, but it will take time to work off the massive inventory build-ups,” Investec Resources analyst Darren Heathcoate said.

All of this pretty much makes speculation about an aluminum smelter for Labrador seem pretty far fetched.

Well, far fetched to people who aren't wearing tin foil hats.

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...and I'll respect you in the morning.

Remember the three great statements people said but no one believed?

Well, add a new one to that:  the "we don't have a quorum" excuse for cancelling a meeting that every single member knew about weeks ago and committed to attend.

We know they committed to attend because the news release announcing the meeting was issued just this past Monday.

The problem seems to be on the government side.  The last meeting turned into a political fiasco  - a national political fiasco - with the three Provincial Conservatives following orders and playing the pettiest of petty politics with funding for the official opposition.

That bit of nastiness happened when the official government pollster - Corporate Research Associates  - was doing other things so maybe given that CRA is in the field as we speak, the government members don't want anything but the happiest of happy news out there to upset the polling.

We should at least we should be grateful they used the quorum nonsense.  They might have said they couldn't have a meeting because Trevor had to wash his hair that afternoon.

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Budget watch

Brent crude - the benchmark for Newfoundland and Labrador's offshore light sweet - is trading at US$53.10 at 2:30 Eastern time.

-srbp-

Thanks, Roger Grimes

Vale Inco will build a smelter at Long Harbour, as the company announced in its October 16 capital expenditure report and as Bond Papers told you last week (Friday to be precise).

The new smelter will use hydromet technology and will be finished by 2011.

The provincial government issued a news release on Wednesday - now that November polling season is under way - even though the information came from Vale Inco on Friday of last week (read the news release !).

The new facility will deliver about 5,000 per years of construction employment and 450 jobs annually.

On top of that the provincial government forecasts the value of the Voisey's Bay project at $20.7 billion.

Not bad for an agreement the Premier used to say had holes in it so big you could drive a truck through them.

The announcement last month confirms that in January 2007, as reported by the Toronto Star, Vale Inco was looking to fast track Long Harbour to have it in service before 2011.

 

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15 ideas for a stronger Newfoundland and Labrador

Introduction

When Brian Peckford and Clyde Wells spoke of getting the provincial government off Equalization, they understood that such a development would merely reflect a greater strengthening of the provincial economy and society. Their policies and those of successive administrations aimed at economic development and diversification which would deliver a stronger economy that would in turn create wealth for Newfoundlanders and Labradorians.

The current state of affairs in Newfoundland and Labrador reflects more the result of those policies coupled with the unexpected good fortune of global economic conditions than it does a sustained commitment by the provincial government to implementing coherent strategies.

The following series of posts will offer 15 ideas on different areas of social, political and economic affairs aimed at strengthening Newfoundland and Labrador.

Strengthening the treasury

1.  Reduce the public debt by 50% within 10 years.  Beginning in the early 1990s, successive administrations restructured public borrowings to convert debt held in foreign currency.  As a result, the current burden on the treasury is significantly reduced and uncertainty due to currency fluctuations has been all but eliminated. 

Since 2003, the accumulated borrowings of the provincial government and its agencies has grown and the current government commitment is to increase public debt to meet any unforeseen needs. Direct debt had actually declined before 2003.

Debt servicing costs - paying only the interest on the debt - is one of the largest amounts spent by government annually.  Paying down debt frees up more money to spend on needed programs and services and improves the ability of government to meet any economic downturns without resorting to borrowing.

2.  Balance the books, every year.  Government surpluses in recent years have been built on the blind good fortune of astronomical oil prices.  Those prices are an unreliable source of cash.  On a cash basis, the provincial government has actually been in debt each year since 2005.  That means new borrowing to add to the burden of public debt.

Balancing the books is possible.  It just needs the political will to do it.

3. Limit annual spending increases to the rate of inflation.  Provincial government spending has increased by as much as seven times the annual rate of inflation in each of the last three years. That's unsustainable in the long run and with the current economic crisis, the excesses of the past three years are about to catch up to everyone.

Limiting spending to the rate of inflations allows for natural increases and commits government to eliminate unnecessary, ineffective or wasteful spending.

4.  Make non-renewable resources revenues a long term benefit by creating an investment fund, paying down debt and funding infrastructure. 

5.  Ensure that any new programs can be funded within the spending limits for annual increases and anticipated revenues.  Review existing programs annually to ensure they meet objectives and are run as efficiently and effectively as possible. 

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Actions speak louder than words

St. John's deputy mayor Ron Ellsworth is showing that talk is cheap.

In his case, that would be his own talk about greater openness in the city's budget process and his most recent campaign promise to get the city back to basics.

Ellsworth is a relative newbie to politics having been elected first in 2005 as a ward councilor, but so far his public comments have been more like a veteran of the uncommunication school.  Take, for example, his comment on postponement of a curbside recycling program - about as basic as it gets these days  - due to an apparent lack of cash:

"We have to make tough decisions on tough issues, and this is one example of that happening," Ellsworth said in an interview.

"I'm not very happy about what we've had to decide to do, but the reality is that we do have limitations and when we have budget constraints like this, the first thing we look at is new programs."

Ah yes.  Tough decisions.  On Friday when this story broke, he was pushing the "opportunity" offered by this delay. Now it's the tough decisions.

Then he played the empathy card, followed by the admonition to speak out:

"I understand the frustration and concern by those that are very close to environmental issues. ... They should make their voices known."

He understands the frustration  - but with what he is not clear - but that, quite obviously,  won't change his mind since these are tough decisions that have already been made. 

And speaking out is all fine but sadly, Ellsworth - as chair of the city finance committee - has been way less than forthcoming with any concrete information about the city's finances. Oh yes, and the tough decision has already been made, in case you missed that.

Ellsworth gave absolute no information to CBC Radio on Friday morning past, even when the interviewer gifted him with a chance.  He fell back on the "opportunities" crap.  Then there were figures coming from somewhere about a seven million dollar shortfall and one million to implement the program.  This evenings' news referred to three million for implementation.

It almost goes without saying that the numbers don't add up.

Ellsworth spent some time taking calls from residents on Monday on a CBC call-in show.  They weren't happy. There's nothing for them to be happy about, especially considering that one of Ellsworth's lines has been that the public expect council to manage public money wisely.

Sure they do.

But what Ellsworth is missing is that voters in St. John's are increasingly unsatisfied with politicians who pay only lip service to ideas like openness and focusing on the basics.  They expect action.

To voters, managing money wisely would not mean boosting the subsidy to something that isn't a core city service - i.e. Mile One - over the past two years by the amount Ellsworth has said the recycling program needs in start-up cash. Bond Papers readers will recall that these subsidies have been unpopular around these parts. To voters, basics would include recycling.

To voters openness means giving basic information and it goes along with the inclusiveness of asking voters for their views before making a decision about how to spend their money. They know Ellsworth's track record on openness isn't a good one.

While it would be tempting to just throw up ones hands in frustration, or to dismiss Ellsworth as a lost cause, he still has an opportunity to bring his words and his actions into line.

First, he can put the city's financial information in public.  He has that ability as deputy mayor.  He can give the public a real chance to review the city's plans and voice their concerns.  If need be, council can reverse it's recycling decision. 

After all, if the city's habit of overspending is as bad as Ellsworth claims, there simply won't be cash in two years to implement this basic recycling program. And if he has really been the voice of reason and fiscal responsibility then the voters will back him against his supposedly free-spending colleagues.

Second, city council needs to bring in the auditor general to review the books.  He may well uncover some little secrets that need to be aired out if the city's finances are to be put on the right track. An audit by the province's financial watchdog will at the very least give everyone a common basis for discussion.

Now if none of that happens, Ellsworth and his colleagues run the risk that come next fall, voters won't be pleased.   They'll be in a mood to throw the bums out, as the saying goes.

Ellsworth and his colleagues can change now or they can let the voters make the change next fall.

Actions do speak louder than words, and voters are judging Ellsworth and his colleagues by their actions.

As he heard to day, they've been measured and found sorely wanting.

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The hope and generosity of our soul

There's a fine line between an homage and a blatant rip-off of an idea.

In this case, a video produced by local advertising company Bristol is  pretty much a giant rip of a recent video by Will.I.Am based on a speech by Barack Obama.

The rip-off in this case goes beyond merely aping the style of the Obama video.  It twists and distorts the fundamentally uplifting qualities of the Will.I.Am and Obama originals in a way that would be funny were the issues it raises not so serious.

Recall that Yes, we can! used an Obama speech, set to music and repeated by a host of musicians and actors.  The Obama speech is as fine an example of public oratory as anyone on the planet has seen in a generation.  It is delivered in characteristic Obama style and it's message is fundamentally one designed to bring people together in a united effort to bring about fundamental change in their country and in the world.

Listen to the words:  Yes we can to prosperity and opportunity.  Yes we can heal this nation.

By stark contrast, the recent speech by Danny Williams is one his vintage speeches of personal pride and division.  The province and its people are a backdrop.  The video reflects that, of course, by using Williams extensively.  The only other people in the video are - as with the woman inserted in a still picture - in the background.

Even the Obama title itself  - Yes, we can - is a positive, inclusive reinforcement of the defining feature of the Obama campaign:  a movement of unity. Yes we have cannot be heard without understanding that, as the news stories of recent days conveys, others do not.

The Bristol rip-off starts, as with the Williams speech, with a toast, a celebration of triumph.  It includes right behind it a clear sign that this is a triumph over others:  who in their wildest dreams would have believed, we are told, that we would be "as good or better off than any other province."  We know what we are fighting for, we hear yet again as if there is a renewed call to arms to be found in having the provincial government go off Equalization.

Of course, this is not the first time a stirring speech born of the politics of hope and unity has been twisted to serve the politics of division.  In his acceptance speech at the 2001 Provincial Conservative convention, Danny Williams turned John Kennedy's clarion call to public service into something entirely self-interested:

John F. Kennedy said: "Ask not what your country can do for you but what you can do for your country."

I say to Newfoundlanders and Labradorians: "Ask not what we can do for our country, because we have done enough. Let's ask our country what they can do for us."

In Newfoundland and Labrador, the ignoble politics of division rears its misshapen, misbegotten head once more.

Our country requires more than ever a renewal of hope among all Canadians for a future built on shared values and shared purpose.  Our province and its people need the assurance that "have" status is built on the wealth and prosperity of the people who live and work here, not on the blind luck of high oil prices.

We do not need more of the anger that has characterized the past seven years of public rhetoric. No one needs to hear, even by implication, of the value of fighting.

Barack Obama's recent victory shows the power of hope and unity, of the unmistakable power of a style of politics which calls upon the very best qualities of the human spirit.

McCain and the Republicans tried what has become the international conservative stock and trade:  fear and division. 

Whatever led Bristol and its associates to produce this video, it should stand as an example of how much the relentless messages of strife have weakened the foundation on which our society is built.

We must wait, evidently, for an awakening within individual Newfoundlanders and Labradorians that what we need to have is a rekindling of the optimism, the abundance of hope and the compassion in our souls that we had, not so very long ago, and in far darker economic times than the one we now face.

Only with those values in our hearts will have not truly be no more.

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The Lord's Prayer

An unconventional armistice day post.

Update: Spike Milligan was arguably one of the most influential comedians of the 20th century. An accomplished musician, Milligan served during the Second World War as a gunner in a field artillery regiment of the British Army.

He served through North Africa, Sicily and Italy before succumbing to combat stress. Milligan was diagnosed later in life as having bipolar disorder.

Milligan was a relentless social and political commentator throughout his post-war life. He worked to make the world a better place, a fact not realized even by members of his own family until some of his letters were discovered after his death.

In this video, Milligan merely takes a stock British Army character or style, namely the sergeant major and imagines the Lord's Prayer as delivered in the verbal style of one of these parade square demi-gods. It may be an in joke but for those familiar with the senior non-commissioned officer of not so long agao, the effect is worth at least a giggle if not a few hearty guffaws.

Armistice Day is a time for sorrowful reflection. However, we would be remiss if we did not recall that the men and women who served were human. Milligan's life should remind us all of their humanity and ours.

World Bank warns of impact on poor

Robert Zoellick, head of the World Bank, is warning that the global credit crisis threatens to become a human crisis.

One of the most likely affected will be remittance workers, people from underdeveloped regions and countries who work in more affluent places and ship large portions of their wages home to support families.

Closer to home remittance workers and migrant labourers working in Alberta and elsewhere in Canada - largely responsible for the recent economic boon of regions like Stephenville and the Great Northern Peninsula -  may soon have less money to send back or may be heading home looking for work where work simply doesn't exist.

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In the wake of Iceland's fall

From the New York Times, a story on the impact Iceland's economy collapse has had on ordinary Icelanders:

In Kopavogur, a suburb of Reykjavik, Ms. Runolfsdottir, the recently fired secretary, said she had worried for some time that Iceland would collapse under the weight of inflated expectations.

“If you drive through Reykjavik, you see all these new houses, and I’ve been thinking for the longest time, ‘Where are we going to get people to live in all these homes?’” she said.

The real estate firm that used to employ Ms. Runolfsdottir built about 800 houses two years ago, she said; only 40 percent have been sold.

By Icelandic law, Ms. Runolfsdottir and other fired employees have three months before they have to leave their jobs. At the end of that period, she will start drawing unemployment benefits.

Meanwhile, her husband’s modest investment in several now-failed Icelandic banks is worthless. “They were encouraging us to buy shares in their firms until the last minute,” she said.

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Long Harbour a go!

As much as Danny Williams and his team tried to bad mouth the Voisey's Bay deal, it will deliver just as it has been delivering millions into the public treasury.

He said there were holes in the deal to drive a truck through. 

Well, the only trucks associated with the deal trucks have been loaded with bags of cash for the Premier to spend.

Vale Inco's 2009 capital expenditure commitments contain the news that, as expected, the company will build a new refinery at Long Harbour:

Pursuant to an agreement with the Government of the Province of Newfoundland and Labrador, we will build a commercial nickel processing facility in Newfoundland and Labrador to produce 50,000 metric tons of finished nickel per year, together with up to 5,000 metric tons of copper and 2,500 metric tons of cobalt, utilizing the ore from the Ovoid mine in our Voisey Bay mining site. The decision about the technology to be employed in this project will be made at the end of this year. The investment is subject to Board approval. [Emphasis added]

No word yet on when the truck will arrive to make the announcement.

Don't be surprised if it happens in November poll goosing season with a joint company/provincial government announcement to boot.

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First, we assume a smelter...

that might possibly lead to making stuff to make cans that we can assume a can-opener to use on.

Take a deep breath.

We are now in a world where we are not starting a project by assuming a can-opener.
And really we are not even assuming a can.

Nope.

Now Memorial University economist Wade Locke is going beyond his prediction that the provincial government may post a surplus greater than predicted last spring to say he thinks there'll be a major economic development announcement for Labrador shortly.

Now we are fantasising about a plant to make to stuff to make the cans out of.

Speculation centres on an aluminum smelter and Locke's cheshire cat grin in an interview with CBC sure fueled the idea that some company - possibly Vale Inco - will be making the announcement related to the Lower Churchill.

Take another deep breath and let's look at what we know - as opposed to what is pure speculation.

1. The provincial budget will very likely be in deficit on a cash basis and if things financial keep going south, the $544 million surplus forecast on some other basis would also be tough - if not impossible - to achieve. Let's see how close Locke comes on that prediction before we accept the megaproject one.

2. The only Newfoundland and Labrador project - the ONLY project - in Vale's 2009 capex announcement in mid October was the Long Harbour smelter. There's no mention at all of an aluminum project or anything else vaguely like it for Canada.

3. To make it even more unlikely there's a real smelter project in the works from Vale, the company's capex commitment gives Vale's strategic view:

Vale’s strategy for the aluminum business is focused on the organic growth of upstream assets, through the development of its high quality bauxite reserves and the very efficient low-cost alumina operations.
As recently announced, we will build a new alumina refinery, Companhia de Alumina do Pará (CAP), and expand our Paragominas bauxite mine (Paragomias III), both located in the Brazilian state of Pará.

CAP will be responsible for the implementation and operation of an alumina refinery, located in Barcarena, close to the alumina refinery of our subsidiary Alunorte. CAP will be 80% owned by Vale, and 20% by Hydro Aluminium. [Emphasis added]

The initial production capacity of the refinery will be 1.86 Mtpy of alumina, through two lines of 930,000 tpy each. The new refinery has potential for future capacity expansions up to 7.4 Mtpy.

4. How do you spell massive subsidy? Aluminum smelters need huge amounts of cheap power. Lower Churchill power would not be cheap unless the provincial government agreed to sell the power over the long term at or below production costs.

Quebec uses its considerable generating capacity for power from plants that are already paid off to help subsidize aluminum enterprises in that province.

Critics point out that it would far more beneficial to export the cheap power for profit than subsidize aluminum plants.

It's not like the trend has been to build aluminum plants as far from possible as markets.

5. Even if by some chance a project is announced, it's construction would be tied to the Lower Churchill which itself remains a dodgy proposition. Lack of confirmed long-term sales contracts and the current economic downturn have put that project further in doubt.

6. Even if we are talking about an announcement, it would be for a project that, in the most optimistic scenario wouldn't be built and operating until closer to 2020 than not.

7. It's the November poll goosing season. Put that together with Locke's actual comment quoted by CBC and you have the sort of overblown hype coming from insiders that we've usually seen about the Lower Churchill project since 2003:

"There are significant projects being considered, energy intensive ones for the province that will make the earlier start of the project more viable and it will act more like a loan guarantee for the Lower Churchill that will allow them easier access to capital," he said.

Projects are being considered.

That doesn't mean they are confirmed.

The rest of the comment likely reflects the view inside the Premier's Office on what sorts of financial daisy-chains are necessary to keep the $9.0 billion project alive, at least in the minds of its proponents.

Of course, that doesn't mean that even the Lower Churchill is as likely as Locke claims.

After all, it's not like the Premier has refrained from hyping a dead dog before when it suited his purposes.

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Amen to that

Telegram editor Russell Wangersky points out in his column this week that local political campaigns suffer from an obvious lack of new ideas.

It’s been so formulaic that there have even been candidates lamenting the state of the media for failing to do riding profiles of each of the federal ridings.

The only thing more lacklustre than the recent campaigns would be a panel of local reporters discussing the campaign.  Gee, maybe they'll talk about things they knew but didn't tell their audiences, just like they did last time.

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GFW mill faces uncertain future

Union members at AbitibiBowater's Grand Falls Windsor paper mill rejected a company restructuring plan.

The company is looking at ways of reducing costs at the mill, built in 1905.

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