Sound fiscal mismanagement

Not.

From nottawa, the first perspective on the provincial budget which is scheduled to to be presented on Thursday.

Take a look at the chart of capital and current account spending. 

Since when is increasing spending by 18% in a recession “sound fiscal management”?

Well, it isn’t.

The only people who would use those terms to describe the provincial government spending habits over the past four years are people who have never actually looked at what is going on.

Either that or they are sitting on the government benches or work for people sitting on the government benches.

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Related:

“We live in a fiscal house of cards” (March 2008)

“What goes up must come down” (March 2008)

Before you click to another page because this is all old hat, consider that in 2003, oil was around US$25 per barrel.  The only people who predicted that within five years oil would hit US$100 a barrel within five years were either in an insane asylum, considered candidates for a straightjacket or part of a very small group of oil pundits who had been faithfully predicting hundred dollar a barrel since the 1970s.  Eventually they had to be right, just like a psychic.

Ask around today and you'd have a hard time finding anyone who will tell you that we will see oil below US$50 a barrel in the near future either.

Odds are better, though, that oil will drop to US$50 and lower within the next decade.

Okay so it happened a little sooner than predicted.

TSB releases S-92 photos

The Transportation Safety Board today released four pictures of the S-92 wreckage.

The photo at left depicts the upper deck of the fuselage.  TSB describes this as being from the right side of the aircraft.

The engine exhaust port can be seen just above the centre of the yellow bar of the storage basket. 

The two long bands that meet in a “v” shape appear to be two of the helicopters four blades.

The portion underneath what appears to be an orange tarpauline (obscuring the aircraft registration number)  at the lower right of the picture appears to be part of the lower right fuselage, turned upside down and backwards.  The opening facing the camera would be part of the lower front window.

The orange tarp may actually be one of the aircraft’s flotation bladders.  One is located under each side of the cockpit area.

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Encounters with reality

From the 1998 special Confederation anniversary edition of the Journal of Newfoundland and Labrador Studies, some food for thought for the more ardent of the anti-Confederates out there:

1.  For the “whole thing was rigged” faction:  “Confederation, conspiracy and choice: a discussion” by Memorial University historian Jeff Webb.

2.  For the “Canada killed the cod” crowd: “The background to change in the Newfoundland cod fishery at the time of Confederation” by Miriam Wright.  Wright is also the author of a significant book on the industrialization of the fishery. 

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Sikorsky starts fix on gearbox problem

Via David Pugliese of the Ottawa Citizen;

STRATFORD, Conn., March 23, 2009 – Sikorsky Aircraft Corp. announced today that the majority of the worldwide S-92 helicopter fleet already has complied with the company’s notice to retrofit the aircraft’s gearbox oil bowl with steel mounting studs. The company expects to have close to 100 percent compliance by the end of this week. Sikorsky is a subsidiary of United Technologies Corp.

The company contacted all S-92 helicopter operators on March 20 after broken titanium studs were found during a helicopter crash investigation in Canada. The investigation is continuing, and no determination has been made that the broken studs contributed to the accident or if they resulted from it.  Sikorsky immediately notified the operators as a safety precaution, and the Federal Aviation Administration is expected to issue an Airworthiness Directive instructing the retrofit.

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Compensation talks? We dun need no stinkin’ compensation talks

Apparently compensation talks between the provincial government and AbitibiBowater have broken off.

When they broke off no one knows since natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale didn’t say and apparently no one asked. Talk about freedom from information.

But were they ever on in the first place?

According to AbitibiBowater chairman David Paterson, the only “talks” involved Abitibi and the provincial government’s energy company, NALCO.

Still, he said, the process is very one-sided. "[It] basically consists of Newfoundland telling us what they are going to do and we have to comply."

He said the expropriation legislation does not give the company any right to a judicial hearing. As a result, the determination of value "is at their whim."

Read the comments on the CBC story linked above though and you’ll see a bunch of people who don’t appear to have thought all this through.  Telling Abitibi to take nothing doesn’t real solve anything, especially if the company winds up in bankruptcy protection or  - worst of all – goes under entirely.  There are a bunch of pensioners in Newfoundland and Labrador with a financial interest in this. Then there are the loggers who have been looking for some sort of severance package even though their union contract didn’t provide anything of the sort.

These sorts of details make the last sentence of the CBC story a bit odd:

While AbitibiBowater has no legal obligation to pay any severance at all, the government has been pressuring the company to pay it anyway as it did when it closed its mill in Stephenville.

Since the company doesn’t have any interest left in the province and the provincial government seized all the company’s assets, exactly what sort of leverage the provincial government might have over AbitibiBowater is a bit hard to see. maybe the only people who will wind up with “nuddin” - to quote one person who commented on the CBC story – will be the mill’s former workers.

Environmental trade-offs update:  Just for those who haven’t been following along closely, the provincial government had intended from the outset to bargain based on a trade off between the environmental clean-up at the mill site and the hydro assets.  The Telegram version of the story makes reference to this without giving that bit of background:

She also said the discussions included severance packages for loggers and the companies environmental liability of its operation.

Basically, the idea is that the money paid by the provincial government would be reduced by any amounts forked over for clean-up and severance.  Now aside from the fact the provincial government has no leverage over AbitibiBowater on the severance, it surely must strike someone as odd the provincial government would tie these things together in this way.

After all, the company is liable for the clean-up any way.  They could also be pressed on a moral obligation to provide some severance package to loggers even if their union hadn’t been able to secure that benefit.

But linking those payments to compensation basically seems to make the provincial government out as the source of the cash.  The company won’t be paying any money for clean-up or severance under this scheme.  The cash will come out of public funds.

And if the company goes bankrupt, as some seem to wish for, the provincial government will essentially be left holding the entire bag.

So what exactly was this expropriation all about, again?

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Spinning him into his grave

or the dangers of google?

Jim Halley was a well respected local lawyer and a relentless anti-Confederate. Why CBC describes him as an “anti-Confederation advocate” is a mystery;  it seems such an awkward construction.

At least as far as that goes, Halley never got over the loss in 1949.

You don’t have to agree with him to respect him and with his death this past week at age 87, to offer condolences to his loved ones grieving his loss.

But voice of the cabinet minister, a radio station that ought to know better, did Jim Halley a tremendous disservice this week.  In their obit piece they gave him credit for something he didn’t do and for something he’d never have claimed anyway since he was adamantly opposed to Confederation (or at least the way it was negotiated) in the first place:

A former lawyer involved in negotiating the deal to get Newfoundland into Canada in 1949 has passed away.

Involved in negotiating the deal?  If anyone has some detail that will corroborate that one, we’d happily receive it.  If anything, Halley’s involvement was in trying to un-negotiate the deal.

Maybe the scribes over at the Great Oracle of the Valley got the line from a 2003 CBC web story [note the date] on the supposed rise of anti-Confederate sentiment in Newfoundland.

James Halley, one of the lawyers involved in negotiating the deal to get Newfoundland into Canada in 1949, says the province got a raw deal, especially in regard to the fisheries.

"Newfoundland has a growing cancer in its system," he said. "The root of our trouble is centred in the relationship between the two countries, between Newfoundland as a country and Canada."

Rest in peace, Mr. Halley. 

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Suncor and Petro-Canada to merge

From the Globe and Mail:

"This merger creates a made-in-Canada energy leader with the assets, cost structure and financial strength to compete globally," said Rick George, Suncor's current chief executive and prospective head of the joint venture.

The deal would create a new champion in the Canadian oil patch and unite two of the biggest players in the oil sands of northern Alberta, provided that the companies can stickhandle their way around federal legislation that was once thought to make Petro-Canada immune to a takeover. Under the Petro-Canada Public Participation Act, no person or company can own or control more than 20 per cent of the company's voting shares and the head office must remain in Calgary.

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Lemme get this straight

Greg Malone, actor, is working on a new book which is supposed to prove the Great Townie Anti-Confederate Fairytale once and for all, i,.e. that Confederation was a Great Conspiracy between Canada and Britain, part of which involved hoodwinking the poor dumb newfs

Wouldn’t this be classified as a re-make?

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Air Labrador to lay off 100

The local airline will be discontinuing its Dash 8 service, according to CBC.

[Air Labrador Vice-President Philip] Earle insists the loss of the Bombardier Dash 8 twin-engined turboprop service is not a sign that Air Labrador is going out of business.

"I think it's important to point out we're certainly not going out of business. We're shutting down a particular part of our business as it is right now," Earle said.

Some of the laid-off workers will be transferred to other parts of the company, but Earle couldn't say how many.

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Brit SAR S-92s grounded for repair

Britain’s Maritime and Coastguard Agency grounded four S-92s over the weekend used for search and rescue in order to replace bolts in the main gearbox filter housing, according to cnn.com.

The MCGA currently operates four S-92s under contract from Canadian Helicopters (CHC).

 

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Whose side will they be on in an Abitibi bankruptcy?

The provincial government may find itself in a fight with AbitibiBowater pensioners in the province very shortly, as a direct result of the expropriation bill forced through the legislature last December.

If the paper company is unable to come to an arrangement with the creditors, it will likely have to file for bankruptcy protection.

One of the biggest creditors looking for cash will be AbitibiBowater retirees, including people who are retiring at the end of the month or who already have retired from the paper mills at Stephenville and Grand Falls-Windsor. There’ll also be a bunch looking for severance but that’s another matter.

That’s where the expropriation comes in.

The provincial government expropriated the company’s most lucrative assets – the hydro bits – in anticipation the company might go bankrupt.  Rather than let the trustees sell off the assets, the provincial government probably figured they could get the whole thing for nothing.  If the company sued, the thing will take years in court anyway.   In the meantime, the company is faced with the huge cost of the environmental clean-up at the mill.

The government gets the sweet bits and the company gets the bile. The people back the government.  Everybody is happy.

Well, not exactly.

There are those Abitibi pensioners.

They’ll be one of the Abitibi creditors looking to the trustee to sort out the company financial state and secure them some cash.

In the event the company files for bankruptcy protection, you can guarantee that the trustees will come looking for every nickel they can find. If the expropriation lawsuit was doubtful before, under a bankruptcy scenario, you can guarantee that all those creditors will want their cash.

Creditors that include the pensioners.

People from Newfoundland and Labrador.

Suing their own provincial government for their own money.

Wow.

So which side will the provincial government be on:

The pensioners…

or its own?

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S-92 crash investigation finds broken stud in gearbox assembly

The Transportation Safety Board team investigating the crash of a Sikorsky S-92 found a broken titanium bolt in the aircraft’s main gearbox filter bowl assembly.  (link includes picture of filter assembly)

The broken bolt would reportedly cause oil to leak from the gearbox.

In January 2009, Sikorsky alerted all operators of S-92s to the need to replace the titanium bolts with steel ones within 12 months or 1250 flying hours, whichever came first.

The crashed S-92 had not undergone that bolt replacement.

The United States Federal Aviation Administration is expected to issue an emergency airworthiness directive for the type, effectively grounding all S-92s worldwide until the the titanium bolts are replaced with steel ones.

Just a second, there update:  A spokesperson for the FAA said the agency hasn’t decided when, how and what type of directive it may issue. The bolt may have broken during the crash or during the recovery operation.

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No safety issue with helicopter transport suits: offshore regulator

The text of a news release issued today by the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board:

The Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board (C-NLOPB) says it does not believe there is a safety issue with the suits currently in use for transporting offshore workers. There have been issues around comfort and convenience, but no safety issues have been identified. If a safety issue arises, it will be assessed and appropriate action taken.

The Canadian General Standards Board (CGSB) introduced the current Standard for these suits in 1999, replacing a previous Standard issued in 1989. The suits currently used in the Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Area are certified by Transport Canada as being in compliance with this Standard.

The CGSB has in place a committee to provide advice and input into this Standard. The C-NLOPB is represented on this committee, along with the Canada-Nova Scotia Offshore Petroleum Board (C-NSOPB), the National Energy Board (NEB), the Government of Canada, the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, the Marine Institute, the oil and gas industry, the fishing industry and suit supplier representatives. In all, there are 28 members on the CGSB committee. Several of the committee members have identified concerns with the technical content of the current Standard, but importantly, no safety issues have been identified with the suits.

Committee members are currently in the process of developing a project agreement with the CGSB for the revision of the Standard during the 2009-10 fiscal year. The C-NLOPB has had discussions with both governments and the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) on this issue. Consequently, we all agreed to contribute financially to the cost of developing a revised Standard, which would seek to address any concerns in the current Standard, and are in the process of conveying this message to the CGSB.

In response to the current helicopter tragedy, we have asked the Transportation Safety Board, the RCMP and the Medical Examiner’s office to advise us if their investigations reveal any evidence that the suits worn by the helicopter passengers, in any way, contributed to the injuries or fatalities that occurred as a result of the accident.

In addition, the C-NLOPB has asked CAPP to provide us with a list of any issues their offshore workers have raised concerning the current suits, and details on actions taken to address any such issues.

The C-NLOPB, the Provincial Government, the Federal Government, other regulatory agencies and the industry are committed to working with the Canadian General Standards Board to remedy any concerns with the Standard. For more information about the Standard, contact the CGSB or Transport Canada.

Looks like everything in yesterday’s provincial government scrum was already well underway. 

Of course, the provincial government would have known that before calling reporters together. After all, it’s not like the provincial government isn’t directly involved in these issues. Makes you wonder why the Premier volunteered not one but twice that they weren’t.

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“We don’t have a regulatory role”

The provincial government has no regulatory role in the offshore?

Nothing could be further from the truth.

The provincial government has no other role in the crash of a helicopter travelling to the White Rose oil field?

Nothing could be further from the truth.

Conflict of interest is just the start of it.

Oil company update:  When the de facto head of the provincial government’s oil company calls for a review of offshore survival suits, the guy who speaks for the association of oil companies operating in the province agrees that it’s a good idea.

Already underway update:  Turns out that the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers was already working with the federal standards agency on the review of survival suit regulations. In an interview with CBC Radio on Friday, CAPP spokesperson Paul Barnes said they’d expressed their support for the review when they got a letter from the standards agency on February 24.

Now that news make you wonder why the Premier would call for a review that was already underway.

And why would he leave the impression there were concerns when the review appears to have been started as part of the regular review and update process?

Did anyone think to ask those questions yesterday?  Like when the Premier said that someone made him aware of the issue.

Who made you aware? seemed like a fairly obvious, logical sensible question.

 

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S-92 nosed in

Lead Transportation Safety Board investigator Mike Cunningham told news media today that a preliminary review of evidence collected of the Cougar S-92 crash suggests the aircraft experienced a major problem at about 800 feet above sea level.

"There was something that happened very suddenly and abruptly after the aircraft got down to 800 feet and levelled out," Cunningham said. "After that the helicopter went into the water and it was a fairly significant rate of descent, which resulted in a pretty bad impact with the water. That's why we have the extent of damage to the wreckage that we have."

This is generally consistent with information available to date, including a log of indicated air speed and altitude for the flight.

Cunningham is quoted in other news media (link above to CBC) as saying it appears the aircraft struck the water nose first.  This is based on an assessment of the damage to the recovered portions of the aircraft.  The cockpit portion is reportedly heavily damaged. There is also a suggestion from some of the comments that while the main portion of the fuselage is in one piece, it is damaged considerably as well.  This may have hindered the passengers from escaping. 

These comments today – which are based on a preliminary examination of evidence – suggest strongly that the aircraft inverted immediately on or very quickly after impact.  This would explain a number of details including the apparent absence of signals from personal electronic locator beacons worn by each of the 18 souls on the aircraft. The locators do not work underwater.

In an initial news conference (either the first or second) the search and rescue spokesperson reported that aircraft on the scene had reported beacons from the aircraft itself (it is equipped with three) and from the two bodies of two people observed in the water by the first aircraft on the scene.

Both were recovered by the first search and rescue helicopter on the scene.  The Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board mandates that offshore operators (oil companies) keep one helicopter within 30 minutes of St. John’s to provide search and rescue coverage.  Contrary to some media reports, this meets the recommendation of the Ocean Ranger Royal commission.

The cost of the helicopter operations  - including the search and rescue service provided to meet the Ocean Ranger commission recommendations - is borne entirely by the oil companies operating offshore, including the provincial government’s oil company which has an interest in White Rose and which will have an interest in Hebron, once it is built.  Canadian Press reported last week that the operators have tried to shift the search and rescue cost entirely to the federal government.

Misinformation on both safety and search and rescue issues has fuelled a frenzy of media speculation and political opportunism (two links) since the crash last week.

This misinformation persists despite information from many sources, including some apparently knowledgeable comments on CBC’s website that the current issue immersion suit was developed and improved in part from testing offshore Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador.

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Helicopter recovered, move to hangar for investigation

The Transportation Safety Board investigation has recovered CHI91 from the ocean floor. 

The Telegram front page on Thursday included additional photographs of the Atlantic Osprey.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The team moved the large case contained the parts through St. John’s last night from the coast guard’s port facilities to a  hangar at St. John’s airport.

They moved the crate late at night (after midnight) to avoid heavy traffic.

Council shows some sense, temporarily

St. John’s city council deferred further discussion of the search and rescue issue until a later time.

Following the council meeting, Coun. Keith Coombs said a delay would help in a couple of ways.

"The period of mourning will be two weeks older, but also will give an opportunity I'm sure for him and others to see what reports come out and what the actual facts of the matter are, because obviously there's a lot of emotion tied to this," said Coombs.

Good idea, especially when the guy pushing it hardest admitted he really doesn’t know anything about the subject.

Good idea too, from a council with a history of talking about things that are way outside their mandate and then making an ass of them in the process.  The mayor built his career on things he clearly knows nothing about.  One of his pet projects has cost taxpayers $65 million and counting.

Yes, Doc O’Keefe rose to prominence on the whole provincial government’s gas price fixing scheme.

The most recent example of this tendency to get involved with stuff council shouldn’t be involved with?  The whole crowd all got taken for a ride by a guy peddling a hockey team to go in the Wells-Coombs Memorial Public Money Pit, a.k.a Mile One.

What is it about city councillors talking about anything but the stuff they get paid to look after (let alone know about)?

What is it about politics and hockey that makes for such an overwhelmingly bad mix for voters?

 

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A pike, a scold, some vultures and a poke.

1.  Roger Pike offers some insightful comments on why the central Newfoundland community is currently in the grip of a major political crisis.

2.  The mayor and council have a plan to deal with the closure of the paper mill.  Well, not really a plan.  More like a list of things.

3.  One town councillor thinks there’s too much negativity.

She [Janice Eisenhaur] added that she wondered if the "vultures'" behaviour was for political gain, self-gain, or if just because they were chronic complainers.

The councillor says she isn't referring to the people who are looking for answers, but to those who she says make unfounded statements and publicly announce them, with no facts and figures in front of them.

…

Councillor Eisenhaur says council and other people are working on initiatives that will hopefully lead to more jobs and increased economic growth.

"Is it going to replace the jobs that are going to be lost in the mill? No. Will it employ some of those people? Perhaps."

Would those vultures  - people who, for political gain, self-gain or some other reason, make unfounded statements and announce them publicly - include people who claim there is a plan to offset the loss of a 1,00 jobs in the region and the town’s major private sector employer but who can’t provide any concrete details?

She did not go into detail about the initiatives she mentioned, though Mayor Rex Barnes talked about them in this past week's Exploits Regional Chamber of Commerce dinner (see related story on page one of today's Advertiser), such as cranberry farming, IT and health care.

"This are things are going to come to fruition. It's not going to happen overnight and it is going to take public and private investment, so we're going to have to wait for this to happen."

There are plans but Janice can’t say what they are other than that they involve a few of things that have already been going on and which really can’t replace the mill anyway.

Sounds pretty much like something that is unfounded and said by somebody without facts and figures in front of them. Don’t be surprised if someone wonders if Janice’s comments are for political gain, personal gain or a need to complain about the people she gets paid to listen to and work with.

God save us, from mainland reporters who spend a few hours in a local hotel in St. John’s and presume to understand this place they love to call “The Rock.”

God save us, to, from local politicians like Janice Eisenhaur.

4.  The Advertiser takes a poke at the vulture idea.

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Enhancing east coast search and rescue

The crash of Cougar 91, carrying passengers to two of the country’s offshore oil platforms, has prompted calls for enhanced search and rescue service.

Unfortunately those calls are hampered by misunderstanding and misinformation. 

Retired Canadian Forces colonel Michel Drapeau described a forward deployment scenario today for audiences of the noon-time CBC Radio current affairs program radio Noon.  Drapeau talked about sending aircraft to St. John’s from existing SAR assets but Drapeau appeared to believe that existing SAR service is provided entirely from Nova Scotia.

Others have been calling for the creation of a new search and rescue squadron in St. John’s. This is justified on the basis that St. John’s is closest to the oil fields, among other things.

Existing SAR Resources

The eastern coast region covers the area from southern Nova Scotia to the northernmost tip of Labrador and extends eastward into the Atlantic to at least the 200 mile limit.  That huge expanse is covered currently by three squadrons, as follows:

• 413 Transport and Rescue Squadron, Greenwood Nova Scotia, operating four CH-149 Cormorant helicopters and one CC-130 Hercules. As the primary search and rescue squadron in Nova Scotia, the squadron maintains a response capability 24 hours a day throughout the region.  Supplemented by maritime patrol squadrons.  Secondary response (back-up0 is provided by 423 Squadron Shearwater, flying CH-124 Sea King.
• 103 Rescue Squadron, Gander Newfoundland, operating three CH-149 Cormorant helicopters.  It is responsible for providing a 24 hour response capability throughout Newfoundland and Labrador, with fixed wing support provided, as needed, from 413 Squadron and other Squadrons at Greenwood.  103 Squadron typically flies twice the national average in actual distress missions. Back-up by Cougar helicopters flying the S-92, an aircraft scheduled to enter Canadian Forces service as the CH-148 Cyclone.
• 444 Combat Support Squadron providing 12 hour SAR support to 413 and 103 with CH-146.

Current purchase plans

In early 2008, the Department of National Defence (DND) considered buying up to three more Cormorants to supplement the fleet of 15 originally purchased in 1998 for an initial price of about $600 million.  The new aircraft would replace one lost aircraft and address availability issues in some squadrons.  A shortage of spares and other issues resulting from the introduction of a new aircraft had reduced aircraft availability.

DND is currently finalising the purchase of up to 15 fixed wing search and rescue aircraft to replace the existing fleet of sic CC-115 Buffalo. The favoured aircraft appears to be the C-27 Spartan.

As well, DND is in the process of replacing the existing fleet of Hercules with the newer “J” model.

Some new ideas

Given the large geographic area as well as the terrain and climatic conditions on the east coast, the search and rescue capability needs to come from a mix of aircraft.  That’s the solution that has worked well.

Current attention is focused on St. John’s but the real weakness is the current basing which puts all the assets in the south and central with limited capability in the north.

Enhanced capability for east coast search and rescue could come from:

• Two additional Cormorants for 103 Squadron, based in Gander, bringing the complement from three to five.  At least one aircraft could be forward deployed to Goose Bay regularly and rotated back to gander as needed. This arrangement would also give an additional aircraft which could be forward deployed as needed to St. John’s in addition to the arrangement with Cougar. 
• Fixed wing aircraft for 103 aircraft coming from either the C-27J or, preferably,  CC-130J purchases.  If necessary more aircraft should be purchased or leased than called for in current plans.
• Installation of in-flight refuelling on the existing Cormorant fleet. Cormorant range is currently extended somewhat by relying on the Hibernia platform for emergency refuelling.

For a marginal increase in planned purchases, DND could provide significant added capacity. 

The in-flight refuelling tankers would be provided by the new CC-130J aircraft that would be dedicated to the SAR role.  Currently, 413 aircraft are also used as transports. 

Having dedicated in-flight refuelers would extend the range and time on station of Cormorants. Some aircraft will still have to fly longer distances but by refuelling in-flight, they will minimise the time currently taken by landing to refuel and launching again.

At the same time, these new fixed wing aircraft would not be multi-tasked as 413 Squadron is currently.  103’s new Hercules would also be available to support 413 Squadron.

Overall, this approach would enhance capability to the north where it is currently very limited.  As well, the overall east coast where the majority of daily activity takes place would have capability for longer periods, farther out to sea than is currently available. 

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Canadian Press fact check, please

 Canadian Press should know that 103 Search and Rescue Squadron in Gander has three – not two – CH-149 Cormorant helicopters.

It’s on the squadron website.

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