NTV/Telelink poll: close, closer, no cigar and a referendum on Dunderdale #elxn41

NTV/Telelink released results Wednesday of a poll they conducted last in the three seats on the province’s Avalon peninsula.

Results:

Margin of Error = +/- 4.8%, 19 times out of 20.

A.    St. John’s East

Incumbent Jack Harris (NDP) leads with 44.9% compared to 16.6% for Conservative Jerry Byrne and 2.9% for Liberal John Allan.  Undecided was 27.8%.  The remainder were Green or wouldn’t give a choice.

B.  St. John’s South-Mount Pearl

Incumbent Liberal Siobhan Coady (26.3%) leads New Democrat Ryan Cleary (23.8%) and Conservative Loyola Sullivan (17.5%).  Undecided was 28.7%.

C.  Avalon

Incumbent Liberal Scott Andrews is at 30.4% with the guy he beat last time – form MP Fabian Manning of the Conservatives at 27.8%.  UND was 32.4%.

Commentary:

No one should be really surprised by any of these results. 

Harris has always been the clear favourite in St. John’s East.  Around these parts, your humble e-scribbler gave Byrne more credit for peeling away some of the old blue voters who went to Harris in 2008 but there should never have been any doubt Harris would win in the end.  These results confirm he should win handily.

That result also likely goes a long way to explaining why Byrne distanced himself from his own leader at a rally today in St. John’s.  Byrne unveiled his own personal platform and made it clear that a vote for him was not a vote for Stephen Harper. That’s an odd thing to do right before your leader comes roaring back into town for a second spin through the province.

In St. John’s South-Mount Pearl,  both your humble e-scribbler and some national projections  - like threehundredeight.blogspot.com – had the race much closer with the Tories closer to the other two than they are in this poll result.  In the seat projection linked at threehundredeight from Wednesday night, the SJSMP result has the NDP at 28%, the Tories at 30-ish and the Liberals at 40%.  That’s based on an amalgam of national polls so you can see how far they can vary from a specific poll done locally.

Coady’s got a highly organised and aggressive campaign.  She’s be calling regularly.  Ditto Sullivan but while Cleary’s team are fired up and seem to doing well, there is little sign of them on the phones and anywhere other than in signs in the district.

Meanwhile, in Avalon, the blood feud is clearly on.  Manning is fighting hard to win back the seat he lost and the closer poll result shows this is a seat to keep an eye on.

But here’s a little thing to pay attention to:  NTV/Telelink asked voters to indicate how satisfied they were with the incumbent.  In all three ridings, the incumbent scored very high satisfaction ratings with Harris’ number being stratospheric.  Coady was in the low 70s and Andrews was in the high 60s.

Now the pollsters apparently didn’t cross-tabulate that with vote intention in their report. Here’s a big hint for news director Fred Hutton or political reporter Michael Connors:  you’ve got some nifty questions there.  It would be very interesting to use the data to its full potential so that viewers can get something a bit more substantial than the mere horse-race results.

Another thing:  the margin of error is big so it is theoretically possible SJSMP is tighter for all three than it seems. As it is, Avalon and SJSMP are close, closer and SJE is simply no cigar.  Harris can head to Florida if he wants and pull a Colbert.

And as a last point, consider the implications of these results for provincial Conservatives and Kathy Dunderdale.  With her endorsement of Stephen Harper at the start, Kathy made this federal election a referendum on her leadership and on the Muskrat Falls project.

There’s no sign that provincial Conservatives are following her lead. 

Period. 

Full stop. 

End of story.

Dunderdale and her crew decided very openly and obviously to take a completely opposite approach this time to the one they followed in 2008 with Danny Williams at the helm.  Williams was good at his word and at the very least made sure that the provincial Conservatives stayed away from their federal cousins.  The result was devastating for the Conservatives and earned Williams a reputation far beyond what he actually did.

But at least he delivered.

The scale of Kathy Dunderdale’s personal defeat on May 2 will be defined by how many seats the federal Tories don’t win.  As it looks right now, the only hope they have appears to be in Avalon.  Dunderdale’s candidates are losing everywhere else and in two of the ridings on the Avalon peninsula, her candidates are well back in the pack. 

It’s not like the federal Conservatives aren’t playing up Muskrat for her.  It isn’t like her own crew aren’t campaigning.  Steve Kent may have looked pretty grim at Byrne’s rally on Wednesday but he was there for the cameras.  Other provincial Tories may not be turning out as Dunderdale might wish and that’s a further sign of difficulties within the Tory camp provincially and federally.

Stay tuned to the vote on May 2.  More might be at stake than just the federal election in Newfoundland and Labrador.

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Recycling a tire recycling story

Environment minister Ross Wiseman announced on Wednesday that his department found a couple of cement plants in Quebec to take a bunch of old tires off his hands.

The crowd in Quebec will burn the tires to replace coal in their heating system or some such.

The provincial government will issue a tender call to ship the tires to Quebec.  Presumably the provincial government will be footing the bill.

Scroll down through the news release and you’ll see mention of another plan to ship tires to Quebec for burning.

It’s from 2010.

And guess what?

The provincial government is paying to ship those tires to Quebec as well.

Still, aside from the whole trading with the enemy vibe this gives off, is there anything in this latest announcement that counts as new?

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The unsustainable lightness of Tom Marshall

Tom Marshall keeps a tight grip on the provincial government’s purse strings.

He has to do that.

The damn things won’t stay that wide open on their own.

In presenting the provincial government’s budget to the House of Assembly on Tuesday, Marshall announced that the Conservative administration of Kathy Dunderdale would continue the practice of unsustainable public spending set under Dunderdale’s predecessor, Danny Williams.

Overall government spending will grow by 4.9%;  that’s about twice the rate of inflation. 

A windfall in oil prices directly attributable to turmoil in the Middle East helped to erase a forecast cash deficit of $959 million and turn it into a modest cash surplus of $133 million. (Estimates 2011 p. iv)

For the past two years, Marshall claimed the government’s profligate spending came from the need to spend cash to fuel an economic recovery. 

Now he’s got a different excuse:  we can afford it.  Marshall told reporters that the provincial economy was “sizzling”. That’s nonsense, of course.  The economy is actually becoming increasingly fragile and public spending is sustained by cash coming from a volatile source, namely oil. Marshall seems to know that just like he knows the public debt is something he should be reducing.

Oddly, Marshall never seems to do anything about it. 

Marshall forecast that the province’s net debt will increase in 2011, largely the result of continued growth in unfunded pension and benefits liabilities in the public service.

And that’s despite repeated warnings from the province’s auditor general among others.  In 2009 a provincial cabinet minister resigned unexpectedly citing concerns about unsustainable public spending.  Earlier this year, Auditor General John Noseworthy repeated the same concerns;  interestingly enough he did it in a report on Fiscal Year 2009, the same year Paul Oram left cabinet.

Two years later, the provincial government is still on the same path.

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Related:

• Fragile Economy:  Staying the course
• Fragile Economy:  reductio ad argentum
• Fragile Economy:  …and two steps back
• Fragile Economy:  now three steps back and loving it
• Fragile Economy:  hard numbers
• Fragile Economy: The Public Sector

On minority governments…

Before everybody’s head explodes, just think about this for a second.

If Canadians are still not sure about giving Harper and the Conservatives a majority, Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff is actually playing an interesting strategic card in his comments to CBC’s Peter Mansbridge about the prospect that the Liberals could form a government without going back to the polls right away.

There might be one small flaw in the logic of it though, and that remains the problem with all of these discussions about minorities dating back to about 2004.

Much of the outcome depends on what the prime minister at the moment advises the Governor General.

If Harper goes back in a dead-on tie with the Liberals, he gets to try and form a government first.  If the Conservatives fail to get the confidence of a majority in the House, he is obliged to head over to Rideau Hall.  If the prime minister advises the GG to invite Ignatieff to give it a go, then that’s pretty easy.

But what if he doesn’t?

Paul Martin had that option once and went for the writ.

What might have happened if the Governor General refused to take his advice and instead tried the course of inviting either Jack Layton or Harper to have a go?

The same thing  - GG refusing to take advice - could well happen again in the scenario Mansbridge and Ignatieff discussed.

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Risky Business

Natural resources minister Shawn Skinner has a letter to the editor  in the Telegram criticising former Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro director Ed Hearn.

Hearn, you may recall, suggested in a letter to the editor of his own that the provincial government should be looking at all its options before embarking on the very risky Muskrat Falls venture.

Hearn wrote, in part that:

Section 92A [of the Constitution Act, 1867] provides authority to tax, set export quotas and prices with respect to electrical energy produced in the province. Properly drafted legislation could allow the province to recall energy from the Upper Churchill at a cost of two mils (one-fifth of a cent) per kilowatt hour for domestic needs. Similarly, properly drafted provincial legislation would prevent the renewal of the Upper Churchill contract in 2016 unless there were proper price adjustments and energy reserved for provincial needs.

Skinner  - or more accurately his letter-writing aide - summarises it this way:

Section 92A resolved these issues by confirming and expanding provincial power to include the authority to legislate in respect of the export of natural resources and electricity.
This theoretically includes the power to impose restrictions upon the export of electricity from a province, or to require electricity destined for export to be diverted to the provincial grid.
Mr. Hearn uses the common term for such legislated action: to “recall” power.

Too risky, says Skinner, to go after something which he dismisses as theoretical.

Instead, the government will force local taxpayers to foot the bill for a very costly venture called Muskrat Falls that makes financial sense only if you accept highly speculative – and hence risky – oil price forecasts, highly dubious  - and hence risky – forecasts of domestic electricity demand, and accept the gigantic risk of imposing on the most benighted taxpayers in the province the single largest increase in public indebtedness in the province’s long, sorry financial history.

Thank merciful heavens Shawn Skinner is scared of a financial danger.

Praise be to the Almighty that Shawn and his cabinet mates are the very souls of fiscal prudence and responsibility.

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Seen on the #elxn41 campaign trail…

New Democrats Jack Harris and Ryan Cleary double-teaming the Health Science Complex cafeteria pressing the flesh, smiling and generally mixing and mingling with voters trying to grab a bite to eat.

The pair left tent cards on the tables that said something about joining Ryan or Jack’s team.

Wonderful stuff.

And right behind them,  a woman bussing tables right behind the pair who dutifully took the tent cards and chucked them into the trash next to the fries, dressing and gravy leavings.

One could almost imagine the grizzled veteran campaigner Harris whispering to his relatively younger protégé:  Now then,  young Cleary, mark her down as doubtful.

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The view from Flower Hill #elxn41

With New Democrat Jack Layton’s pronouncement in St. John’s over the weekend, all three major federal party leaders have pledged federal financial support for a plan to export cheap hydro power from Labrador into Nova Scotia while having the people of Newfoundland and Labrador pay for it through greatly increased electricity rates.

Layton actually went a bit farther than the others.  If New Democrats form the next federal government, he’ll also drop $375 million into building the link to Nova Scotia so the link that let’s them get their free power will be even cheaper for Nova Scotians.

Now if you look at the actual words of what they said, they never talk about Muskrat Falls, specifically.

They talk about the Lower Churchill, generally and what Jack, Stephen and Michael endorsed now is really nothing more than their predecessors did at any point over the past 40 years.

Well, with one crucial difference.

For the current Conservative administration in this province, there is no longer a Lower Churchill project that sold most of its power outside the province and made money doing so. 

There is now only a plan to build a small dam on the bottom end of the river and build expensive transmission lines to run the juice along to people in St. John’s and another bunch in Nova Scotia. 

Only the people in Newfoundland and Labrador will pay for the power, as Premier Kathy Dunderdale told the provincial legislature during the current sitting.  The others need only pay whatever their markets will allow. 

And that, as Premier Dunderdale well knows, is far below the price she plans to put to Nan and Pop on Flower Hill in the heart of the working class districts of St. John’s. 

The numbers for that don’t work – Michael Ignatieff’s remarks notwithstanding – unless one is quite happy to saddle the growing number of retired people in Newfoundland and Labrador with the burden of a Labrador hydroelectric nightmare…again.

Newfoundland and Labrador’s demographics are such that by the time Muskrat Falls comes on stream in the latter part of this decade, pretty close to a majority of the adults in this province will be either retired already or on their way to retirement in short order. 

Regardless of what happens to the price of oil, the provincial government wants to double their electricity costs.  Fixed income and low income Newfoundlanders and Labradorians will definitely pay more for electricity if Kathy Dunderdale gets her wish.  Now she and her colleagues have all sorts of rationalisations to explain away objections to their scheme.  Undoubtedly, those rationalisations let them sleep soundly at night even if, in the funnier versions, they sound like Pakleds from the latest episode of PC: TNG. 

Those sorts of considerations don’t really matter for the federal party leaders.  Such details are really the whys and wherefores that would only come from silly parsing of the whole scheme, to borrow a phrase.   For the federal party leaders, their stump speeches in Newfoundland and Labrador are designed to do one thing:  win a couple of votes. 

There’s not much thought in it than that, nor is there a detailed analysis of anything,  Each party leader knows nothing more than that this Lower Churchill thing is supposedly very popular and saying nice things about it will win them votes.

Jack Layton has the most ambitious version.  That’s not just because he is way behind nationally and say riskier things. It’s also a function of the fact that he has to win seats in Nova Scotia and he and his local team in Newfoundland think they have a shot at a second seat in St. John’s South – Mount Pearl.  There is no better way than to stand firmly behind something that looks hot right at the moment.

But to be frank, if someone had wanted a loan guarantee for a new reality show called Dancing the Lancers with the Stars, the boys would be lined up four-square behind that as well. Jack would up the ante by offering to play accordion for his guest appearance on the show.

As for public interest in the Lower Churchill – the thing that drives the federal interest in winning votes - let’s just you shouldn’t be surprised if someone told you that the most recent public opinion poll showed that far less than 10 percent of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians identified the Lower Churchill as the most important issue facing the province today.

We are talking single digits here.

But the whys and wherefores of it all don’t matter…

Unless you happen to live on Flower Hill.

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Libs, Cons and Dips put faith in preposterous financial claims #exln41

The people who push specific megaprojects usually over-estimate the benefits and under-estimate the costs.

That’s the result of a Scandinavian study of these sorts of things. The title is Megaprojects and risk.  They used examples taken from around the world:

Cost overruns and lower-than-predicted revenues frequently place project viability at risk and redefine projects that were initially promoted as effective vehicles to economic growth as possible obstacles to such growth. The Channel tunnel, opened in 1994 at a construction cost of £ 4.7 billion, is a case in point with several near-bankruptcies caused by construction cost overruns of 80 percent, financing costs that are 140 percent higher than those forecast and revenues less than half of those projected (see chapters 2-4). The cost overrun for Denver’s US$5 billion new international airport, opened in 1995, was close to 200 percent and passenger traffic in the opening year was only half of that projected. Operating problems with Hong Kong’s new US$20 billion Chek Lap Kok airport, which opened in 1998, initially caused havoc not only to costs and revenues at the airport; the problems spread to the Hong Kong economy as such with negative effects on growth in gross domestic product. After nine months of operations, The Economist dubbed the airport a “fiasco”, said to have cost the Hong Kong economy US$600 million. The fiasco may have been only a start-up problem, albeit an expensive one, but it is the type of expense that is rarely taken into account when planning megaprojects.

With that as background, consider that all three federal political parties are backing a megaproject in Labrador where the numbers just don’t add up.

labradore does a fine job of exposing the problem using comments from the provincial legislature last week.

Opposition leader Yvonne Jones asked Premier Kathy Dunderdale about current costs estimates for things like a transmission line from Labrador to St. John’s.  The current forecast price is the same as the price in 1998 despite the fact that  - for example – steel prices have climbed 200% in the years since.

Dunderdale’s response is really interesting.  She doesn’t explain anything but basically stands behind the contention that she and her geniuses have somehow magically eliminated the impact of inflation on this project.

Minor problem, notes labradore.

Nalcor’s geniuses told the environmental assessment panel reviewing the project that inflation still works, but only for things they have no interest in doing.  Like say a power line to the small communities in Labrador who will will only get to watch the power lines run by their communities on the way to the island and Nova Scotia:

In fact, in 2001 the Province estimated that the cost of constructing transmission lines to these communities would be in the range of $300 million. With inflation and increased costs for materials and labour, that number would be even higher today.

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End of an election sign era #elxn41

People have hung election signs on it for as long as the Waterford Hospital has had it there at the edge of its property at the intersection of Cowan Avenue and Waterford Bridge Road.

Those signs are gone now, apparently at the request of the regional health agency.

The hospital used to be well out in the countryside but as the city grew around it, the fence became a highly visible feature on one side of a busy intersection.

The federal riding used to be St. John’s West.  These days it’s called St. John’s South - Mount Pearl.  Some people think it is too close to call at the moment. Your humble e-scribbler agrees and as the election wears on, the actual battle seems to be going on between the New Democrats and the Conservatives for the provincial Conservative vote.

Now some of you are thinking that doesn’t make any sense. Just remember though, that voting in St. John’s is not along some left/right ideological axis. Something else drives it.

The New Democrats are fired up though.  Some of them have a personal hate on for Liberal incumbent Siobhan Coady. It turns up in all sorts of ways, not the least of which is one  twitter idiot who tries spam-bombs Coady’s twitter feed.  All he does is show just exactly how much an an amateur pol he is. Hint: spamming only shows you are a professional horse’s arse.

But anyway…

Before the signs disappeared, the corner of Cowan and Waterford Bridge Road was a good spot to see local political signage.  The centrepiece of the affair was a big four by eight Coady affair that went up before the ink was dry on the writ.  The Grits have been aggressive, if nothing else. 

The Dippers countered with a batch of four by fours with the name “Jack Layton”, the candidate in some Toronto riding.  The local guy – Ryan Cleary – got a bunch of two by twos of the kind usually mounted on lawns.  You can see the spread in the picture.

Now from a design standpoint, there are two things to notice here.

First, look at the good sign design ideas. Coady’s big sign makes her name the largest thing.  it’s visible from quote a distance.  Her web address is there as well. The picture’s a throw-away but overall this is a well designed sign.

The Layton signs are the current NDP design and they are good.  The last name of the candidate is prominent and can be seen easily seen at a distance.  They don’t show as well at night as they should but that’s a separate issue. 

Problem – and here’s the second thing – this layout wasn’t a good thing for Cleary.  His two bys are the older type he used the first time he ran. There’s so much other info on the sign, they made his name too small to be seen at any serious distance.

The fact that Jack’s signage overwhelmed Cleary only compounds the problem and just doesn’t make any sense.  Jack isn’t a vote draw.  The fact they plastered the space like wings on Coady’s big sign only made hers stand out even more.  That just compounded the basic problems with their signage.

Cleary’s new signs are better:  they profited by following the template national design but their night-time visibility is still worse than the other parties’ signs.

When the Connies showed up, their small verticals were too small to show the candidate’s name – Loyola Sullivan – in a way anyone could read. They fixed that problem with the four bys that went up later.  The Dippers responded by a volume attack, again, that really didn’t do anything to give them greater prominence, visibility or anything else.

Just to finish it off, a local lawn care guy got into the act.  Maybe Mr. Mulch is running for the Greens.

Don’t laugh too soon, though.  You can use his signs to show just how much experienced political types have developed signs that use experience to deliver effective signs.  Mulch, by contrast is burdened with all sorts of detail.  The result is a sign you cannot read unless you right on top of it.  Given that people read most of these signs in their cars, they’ll see Mulch as they speed by and certainly without having the time to get the telephone number to call or his website.

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The Weekly Traffic

No one will miss the very fitting result of this week’s edition of your weekly traffic survey.

Frankly your humble e-scribbler was a wee bit surprised that an old post about measuring the effectiveness of your public relations program could garner so much attention.

But there it is.

Take note that two of the big stories this week discuss cheaper alternatives to the Muskrat Falls proposal and another one discusses the government’s overall plan to pay for Muskrat falls by boosting electricity rates in the province.

Maybe people are starting to catch on that this Muskrat Falls project is a money loser for the people of the province.

One other little tidbit to draw to your attention:  Friday’s post on Kathy Dunderdale possibly knowing about the JSS contract in advance (but staying silent) went up on Friday and got to Number Four for the week.

That tells you one thing and that isn;t good news for the Premier.  Friday’s usually a pretty dead day. If a Friday post goes into the Top 10, you know you have something people are very interested in reading.  That story might well carry over into next week.  Evidently this is a story that is too important to disappear in a cloud of foolishness about sexist attacks.

As for the traffic volume here at Bond Papers, it’s up again this week.

Take that for what it’s worth.

1. Mine is bigger than yours:  measuring the impact of public relations
2. Kremlinology 35:  Premier shows strain
3. Former hydro director points to another alternative to costly Muskrat Falls scheme
4. Did Kathy know about the JSS withdrawal in advance?
5. Invented story:  political appointee attacks government’s political opponent
6. Province settles expropriation with Enel, Sun Life and others
7. Making the people pay more for electricity
8. Fukushima kinda meltdown:  Collins cancer contract contradictions crumble credibility
9. Another cheaper, greener alternative to Muskrat Falls
10. Missouri lawyer adds to Collins cancer contract contradictions

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NDP: On the one hand… #elxn41

On the one hand the New Democrats want to remove HST from home heating fuel, including electricity.

But on the other hand they want to see Muskrat Falls go ahead.  That project would hammer people on fixed and low incomes in Newfoundland and Labrador by doubling their electricity prices.

At the same time, the federal New Democrats want to help Nova Scotia build a line to Newfoundland so they can import power from Muskrat Falls pretty much for free.

Of course, the NDP aren’t alone.  The federal Liberals and Conservatives also want to double electricity prices in Newfoundland and Labrador by supporting the Muskrat Falls megaproject scheme.

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Nalcor issues deceptive release linked to Muskrat Falls megaproject

The province’s energy company issued a deceptive news release on Thursday, apparently as part of its campaign to drive up electricity prices in advance of the Muskrat Falls megaproject.

The headline on the release states that:

Rising oil prices cause increase in Rate Stabilization Plan Adjustment for electricity consumers

The Telegram picked up the false headline and ran with it, even though, the first line of the release states that the company has merely filed an application for a rate increase.

So rising prices haven’t caused anything yet and they may not cause it at all.  The public utilities board must review the application and receive public comment before making a decision.  Many things could affect the application, including Nalcor’s has $10 million windfall from the Enel expropriation that they could apply before forcing customers to pay more for electricity.

That’s not the only misleading statement in the release, but it sure doesn’t look good when the headline is completely and utterly false to begin with.

The company also claims that “If we maintain the status quo of electricity generated through Bunker C oil at Holyrood,rates will continue to rise into the foreseeable future.”  That’s true but only if Nalcor neglects it responsibilities.  If the company promoted conservation, used its existing renewable resources to greater advantage and brought wind and new small hydro on stream, the price of electricity wouldn’t inevitably rise.

Nor will the cost rise if the price of oil drops.

Both of those things don’t draw the sort of connection implicit in the release between inevitable price increases and the idea that Muskrat Falls is a solution to the problem.

When a company has to rely on such deceptive claims, you can be sure it has no substantial arguments in favour of its proposal.

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Did Kathy know about JSS withdrawal in advance?

Premier Kathy Dunderdale sent the latest round of begging letters off to the federal party leaders on April 7, but one thing was curious by its absence. She tabled them in the House of Assembly but they aren’t online yet.

Sure there was the usual worn-out stuff stuff about federal presence, fisheries, the Hibernia shares and all Danny Williams-era list of grievances.  There’s a poke for yet more cash for Internet broadband and even a request for cash for childcare spaces.

The provincial government that spends more per person than any other one in Canada outside Alberta is looking for Ottawa to pay for stuff that is an exclusive provincial jurisdiction.

But missing from the letter sent on April 7 is any reference at all to the $35 billion naval shipbuilding contract.

Not a peep.

In a list of 14 or so specific topics.

Danny included the contract in his 2008 letter.

But Kathy Dunderdale did not even make a veiled reference to a contract that held phenomenal potential to keep Marystown working ships for years and years out beyond anything they have got currently in the pipeline.

That is really odd.

After all, Kathy Dunderdale took gigantic offense on Wednesday in the House of Assembly at any suggestion she did not understand the magnitude of the issue:

I take no lessons from you in terms of the Burin Peninsula about its communities, about its people, about its history, about its struggle, because I have been part of it all, I say to you.

That came after Kiewit Offshore shocked most of the people in the province when the story leaked out this week that the company didn’t want to pursue the $35 billion naval construction contract that the federal government is still trying to sort out. 

Shortlisted as one of five companies contending for the work, and yet the company brass said they just couldn’t come up with the professional help to put the bid together.  Didn’t feel they could pursue decades of steady work for their yard at Marystown on the Burin peninsula.  As CBC quoted a company spokesperson:

"The core Kiewit management and engineering folks that we would need for that proposal development just weren't plentiful enough to carry us through the process," said company spokesman Kent Grisham.

Big surprise to pretty well everyone earlier this week.

Fisheries minister Clyde Jackman, whose district the yard is in, told VOCM that he was a shock to him.  Here’s their short account in the event it gets disappeared from the Internet:

Fisheries Minister and the MHA for the district of Burin-Placentia West Clyde Jackman says this week's announcement by Kiewit Offshore Services to cancel its bid in Marystown for up to $35-billion worth of federal shipbuilding work came as a shock to him. He says he's as surprised by it as others, especially since the government has been working with Kiewit for the past number of years to obtain some of this work.

This is not a new project.  In fact, the whole thing is featured specifically in the provincial Conservatives’ 2007 election platform.  You can find it on the website now labelled dunderdale2011.ca:

• continue to work cooperatively with the Canadian North Atlantic Marine Partnership (CANMAP) bidding team, which includes Marystown’s Peter Kiewit and Sons, in a concerted effort to win the federal Joint Support Ship (JSS) contract for the Burin Peninsula.

This is a big project.

And, if Kathy Dunderdale’s reaction is any sign, this is a sensitive subject.

In the House of Assembly, she even tried the rather lame spin that it was wonderful the company was so flush with work that they could turn away $35 billion in long-term ship building.

But in a letter sent on April 7, Dunderdale did not mention it at all.

It sure looks like Kathy Dunderdale knew long before the rest of us that the company was bailing on the whole thing.

After all, why else would such an important project be missing from his stock letter looking for federal handouts during an election?

Knowing in advance would also explain why she has been trying on the histrionics about personal attacks rather than just answer the questions.

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Missouri lawyer adds to Collins’ cancer contract contradictions

While a lawyer working for the provincial government never met Danny Williams, that doesn’t solve the basic problem with justice minister Felix Collin’s contradictory statements about who hired Danny Williams’ former law firm to work a potentially very lucrative lawsuit against Big Tobacco.

Kenn McClain of Humphrey, Farrington and McClain told CBC news that he hired Roebothan, McKay, Marshall as a local firm to work on the suit because of their experience and other factors.

However, a February justice department news release claimed that the provincial government retained the local firm. implicit in the date of the release is that the firm started work on the file after Danny Williams left office in December.

In the House of Assembly on Monday, Collins said much the same thing:

when the time came to expedite this process and to file the statement of claim, the American company still did not have the certificate to practice so we had to engage in the firm they had retained to file their statement of claim.

Collins added, apparently inadvertently, that RMM had been working on the suit for five or six years, not the few weeks implicit in Collin’s earlier statements and the February news release.

So which is it? 

Collins’ version and the Missouri lawyer’s account just don’t match up at all.

 

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Making the people pay more for electricity

Take a gander at Hansard for Wednesday and you’ll see an interesting series of questions put to Shawn Skinner about the settlement in the Star Lake expropriation.

You can see pretty easily that the expropriation back in 2008 had nothing to do with getting back timber and water from an evil foreign company.

Nope.

The real story was about something else.

Shawn told the House, in all earnestness, that as a result of the 2008 expropriation of the Star Lake hydro-electric facility, the people of the Happy Province could now benefit from having 18 megawatts of electricity to meet their needs.

From that, Mr. Speaker, that generating station will put electricity into the system that will benefit the people in Newfoundland and Labrador.

We now have an asset that is a fairly new asset, about ten or twelve years old. It is an asset that for decades to come will be able to provide clean, renewable power for this Province that we will benefit from.

Skinner makes it sound like Star Lake will do something now that it wasn’t doing before.

Fact is that Enel and Abitibi developed Star Lake in the 1990s in response to a request for proposals issued by Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro. The provincial government’s electricity producer wanted to add some new renewable energy to its island supply that would help reduce the need for thermal generated stuff at Holyrood.

And that’s what Star Lake did.  It wasn’t supplying power to the Abitibi mill at Grand Falls-Windsor, as Abitibi’s other hydro generators did. Star Lake made the light bulbs glow in homes on the island.

Now, NL Hydro bought the power from Star Lake and turned around and sold it to Newfoundland Power who in urn retailed it to consumers.  Skinner put the annual cost of the power from Star Lake at $10 or $11 million annually.

Nalcor tried to buy Star Lake – as it turned out – before the expropriation but Abitibi apparently rebuffed the offer.  They preferred to sell the whole affair to Enel, their partner at the time.

In the end, Nalcor got Star Lake.  The cost came in at around $73 million on a facility that cost about $50 million to build.  Skinner says it was $60 million.  Okay.  Tomato.  Tomato.

What’s interesting here is not that the lovely people of the island now have electricity, it is the financials of the whole thing.  Follow that link right there  - LINK – and you will see a couple of curious things.

In early 2009, Danny Williams pretty well blew away any idea that the island needed power from some expensive project in Labrador as a result of the Vale smelter in Long Harbour.  As the Telegram reported:

Williams explained that the province didn't need the power from the Exploits River in order to accommodate the Long Harbour plant. He said 70 megawatts were freed up when the Stephenville paper mill closed, and an additional 54 megawatts of wind power has also been added to the grid.

Williams also said that:

the most important fact is that the province, through Nalcor Energy, a Crown corporation, will take full control of the power at the end of March. [emphasis added]

Why is that important, you ask?

Well, it has to do with those power purchase arrangements.  you see, Skinner mentioned those on Wednesday as a way of saying that the $73 million for Star Lake meant the provincial energy company wouldn’t have to pay that money out any longer.

True enough.

But how, asked Yvonne Jones, would Nalcor recover the cost of the settlement?

Why silly thing, by selling power to the lovely ratepayers of the island, sez Shawn:

We are going to be selling electricity into the provincial grid. That was the point I was trying to make. I apologize if I did not make it clearly enough for the Opposition House Leader. We are selling electricity into the provincial grid. The Public Utilities Board sets a price and the people who receive the electricity pay the price, Mr. Speaker.

Hands up anyone who has seen Nalcor head to the public utilities board to lower electricity rates now that they won’t have to shell out that $10 million annually.  Of course they haven’t and one would be exceedingly naive to expect them to do it.

By having a near total monopoly on electricity production in the province, Nalcor can now pocket the $10 million annually it used to pass along to Enel along with whatever margin it took on top.  Nice windfall.

In fact, if the loan is the only thing they are directly liable for and it is for a 25 year term, the actual annual cost to Nalcor is a trifling sum.  They are basically pocketing a gigantic profit on every megawatt from Star Lake they have generated since December 2008.

Not bad, eh?

Nalcor’s bottom line is that much fatter courtesy of the good people of the Happy province. People are already used to paying the higher rates so Nalcor can just keep on making them pay rather than pass any savings that Skinner was talking about on to consumers.  he was crowing about bigger profits for Nalcor, not a brighter future for the ratepayers of the island.

And when Muskrat does come along in 2017, well the same ratepayers keep on footing the bills for the government monopoly:  Nalcor’s entire plan for Muskrat Falls is based on profitability from provincial ratepayers alone.

Just like at Star Lake.

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Kremlinology 35: Premier shows strain

Being the premier of any province is a tough job.

It’s hard to appreciate just how tough the job is unless you’ve been there or have been pretty close to the person who has the job.

You can see the effect of the pressure in how fast people tend to age in office. That’s the basic point of a post from last October titled “The weight of office.” Danny Williams didn’t look unhealthy when he left office last fall but he was nowhere near the youthful looking fifty-odd year old fellow who started in the job in 2003.

Sometimes the strain of the job shows in other ways.  Like say, the meltdown Kathy Dunderdale had at the last part of Question Period on Wednesday.  The written record doesn’t show it, but take a look at the video.

Around the 44 minute mark, NDP leader Lorraine Michael starts on a series of questions that have barbs in them. There’s nothing in any of the questions that is the least bit unusual for a politician and there is nothing at all sexist in it.

In fact, odds are that Kathy Dunderdale herself has said something far more loathsome than the question perhaps in the heat of the moment on another occasion.

On this occasion, though, Dunderdale’s reaction is over-the-top.  She gets red-faced and her voice cracks a lot. She brings up the rather obviously cheesy partisan attack Dunderdale’s political appointee made on opposition leader Yvonne Jones over a jab Jones made at Dunderdale.

Dunderdale looked flustered.

Something is bothering her but the one thing we can be sure of it:  it wasn’t Lorraine’s pair of questions.

Well, not that alone.

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Fukushima kinda meltdown: Collins’ continuing cancer contract contradictions crumble credibility

Credit where credit is due correction:  see bottom of post

 

Justice minister Felix Collins is creating a gigantic mess.

In February, Collins announced that the provincial government had proclaimed the 2001 tobacco costs recovery act and would now get on with filing a lawsuit against Big Tobacco as a number of other states and provinces have done.

The very last sentence of the news release included this supposedly innocent bit of information:

The Provincial Government has retained the services of local law firm Roebothan McKay Marshall, who will be provided with foreign legal advice from Humphrey, Farrington and McClain of Independence, Missouri, experts in tobacco litigation.

Note the words:  “Provincial government has retained…”.

Only problem was no one outside of a handful of people in the provincial government had ever learned that Danny Williams’ former law firm had anything to do with the suit.

No tender call.

No expressions of interest.

Nothing.

The Official Opposition tried to find information through an access to information request.  As Opposition Leader Yvonne Jones put it in the House of Assembly on Monday, “there was no record of any cost-benefit analysis, no minutes of any meetings that discuss the issue, no internal letters, memos or emails, …”.

No records at all?

Sounds odd, but this is a government, after all, that wanted to charge someone 10 large for copies of public speeches.

Lots of work because someone had to redact the speeches they said.

Anyway, when asked about it, Collins put it this way: 

…when the time came to expedite this process and to file the statement of claim, the American company still did not have the certificate to practice so we had to engage in the firm they had retained to file their statement of claim. It is as simple as that, Mr. Speaker.

February news release was about filing the statement of claim.

Collins said on Monday that the provincial government hired the firm at that point.

Following the story, so far?

Another question and Collins added some more detail:

Mr. Speaker, there was provision in that agreement that that law firm would retain Newfoundland counsel to act on their behalf in this Province. Mr. Speaker, they engaged the services of Roebothan McKay Marshall to be their agent in this Province.

So it was the American law firm that hired the local firm.

Okay.

And then this bit:

Mr. Speaker, about a month ago when we filed our statement of claim, we had to engage with Roebothan McKay Marshall to do that for us because up to that point in time the American company did not have the certificate of practice.

So now it looks like the provincial government didn’t hire the firm, as the February release says.  That was the crowd from Missouri.

And then – in the words of second rate television reporters everywhere -  things started going horribly wrong for Felix.

Jones asked about the contract with Roebothan, McKay and Marshall.

Collins retorts with: 

the hon. the Leader of the Opposition knows full well the details because they were the ones who entered into the contract with the firm to start with.

Huh?

Suddenly a contract with a law firm that was supposedly signed within the past couple of months actually happened seven or eight years ago?

Looks like another Time Lord is born to go with the fish one and the old justice one.

Switch now to Tuesday when Jones took up the saga again.

Collins explains:

We had to revise that agreement in December to make the local counsel, the counsel for the purposes of expediting the process in the court, as I mentioned yesterday. That is the only revision, Mr. Speaker.

Whoa, Felix.

All this changing of agreements and there’s no record of any kind of it in the provincial government? 

Apparently so.

But something else changed in all this as well:  under the original deal, the Missouri firm took the lead, based on its experience.  They got the job as a result of a competitive process. These Americans took on a local firm on a subcontract, if you follow Collins’ line on Monday.

But then he dropped this zinger:

We had to revise the document to make the local firm the lead counsel so that they could expedite this process and bring the statement of claim into court.

“Make the local firm the lead counsel.”

Huge difference.

But Collins wasn’t done.  Having rattled his own argument with a series of earthquakes and a tsunami, he blew the reactor sky-high:

Roebothan McKay Marshall has been involved in this file for at least five, six years, at least five or six years…

Not five or six weeks, as you had on Monday or implicit in the February news release.

Five or six years.

Now just recall that somewhere in government there is enough information on all this so that someone could write a briefing note for Collins to read, but there wasn’t anything they’d release under an open records law.

But now the world learns that Danny’s old law firm started working on this file way back when Danny was in his first term in office.

Five or six years ago would make it around 2005 or 2006.  Tom Marshall – Danny’s west coast leadership campaign boss – was the justice minister.

Wow.

That eye-searing white light you see is Felix Collins’ credibility going up in a ball of nuclear flame.

It’s going to be interesting to see if the fireball engulfs anyone else inside or outside the administration.

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Correction:  Blogging is not an exact science and sometimes even when you know the right answer you still get it wrong.

Full credit for the backstory on this belongs to Russell Wangersky at the Telegram.  Your humble e-scribbler humbly got it wrong when he attributed this to the opposition.

Wangersky’s your man and he laid it out back in February.

Mine is bigger than yours: measuring the impact of public relations

This originally appeared at The Persuasion Business.

Odd as it might sound, public relations professionals spend a chunk of time trying to measure things.

Aside from wondering if what you are doing is actually producing anything other than billings, clients want to see some tangible indication of results for communications programs.

Simple stuff - like saying the story got front page above the fold in a given newspaper - is a bit dated and must inevitably be coupled with other things to give a sense of whether or not the news release got the message across. Then again, just getting a call from a reporter can give a big clue that something is headed off the rails. If the first one appears to have been a success, then there's always the other story that spins off it because your answers to the first set of questions just didn't ring true. There's at least one of those stories working it's way through the news media in St. John's these days.

No one can forget survey research of some kind, but that too doesn't quite capture what some people are looking for. Increasingly, it is fraught with its own challenges, like just getting enough people to participate. Then there's the problem, as in the case of provincial politics in Newfoundland and Labrador where some publicly available polls are frequently goosed in one way or another by one of the clients.

Simply put, though, clients want some reliable indicator of what they get for their money. They want to see a return on investment (ROI) and they need to see that expressed in a way that is meaningful, let alone meaningful to them.

Practitioners have an interest in clients seeing the value of their work, especially in long-term program or in a crisis. There are people whose professional keysters I have pulled from the flames of a controversy and earned their gratitude and their friendship in return. Some people get it.

Yet as strange as it might seem, there are others who strolled over the Credibility Chasm blissfully unaware of how the work done on messaging, interview techniques, or just simply getting their heads focused actually helped them survive a crisis. These are the people who think it's all simple because the practitioner's skill and ability make it look simple.

Just to give an idea of how big an issue measurement is, take a gander at Katie Paine's blog which is dedicated entirely to research and evaluation for communications.

That's on top of KD Paine and Partners' company website.

Katie's written a book, Measuring success. True to the spirit of ecommerce, social marketing and all those other current trends, Katie's distributing the thing free-of-charge.This is definitely not a case of you get what you pay for. Take the time to download it and Katie will reward even the non-practitioner with some insights into what public relations is really all about.

There's also Cymfony, a company that does measurement as its entire book of business.

The Canadian Public Relations Society measurement committee - yes they even have one - developed a method they endorse that measures editorial coverage and ROI. You can find more on it at cprs.ca.

Measurement is just part of research and research is the starting point for any effective plan. Research is itself a speciality within the public relations field and the real treasure is finding people who can not only spit out data but also paint a coherent picture of what the data means. The links above will give you two treasures. Plenty can lay the mosaic individual tiles. Few can then step back and help you see see the profile of Abraham Lincoln.


Bond Papers is the product of research. All the bandwidth devoted to the provincial government positions and how Danny Williams operates comes from observation. Research forms the starting point of what your humble e-scribbler needs to give clients advice on how to approach an issue involving government. Knowing the environment also helps to know how to avoid government's radar screen, but that's a whole story in itself.

What turns up on your computer screen from Bond or at Persuasion Business is just the tip of the over-used iceberg analogy. Virals, poll goosing and all that are the PR equivalent of showing how to lift an ice cube with a piece of string and some salt. The real challenge comes in knowing how to shift the entire freakin' berg of attitudes and behaviour.

And knowing why you want to move the berg in the first place.

Bond Papers has its impact and there are ways to measure that. Does it reach the target audience?

Absolutely. The three separate traffic trackers reveal the size of the Bond daily audience, the number of people subscribing, the computers they run, the browsers they use, screen resolution, language, the pages they visit, the google search terms used and a host of other bits of detail.

In many cases, the trackers identify the Internet service provider handling the visit. I can't tell specifically which individuals are reading, but there is enough demographic information to know that the people who should be reading are reading Bond. There are a lot more who ought to be reading Bond's utterances, but for now the audience is the right size.

Do people like what they see?

Yes and no.

Someone invented e-mail so people can send a note of encouragement or, more often, a rocket taking exception to something. It all goes into the research hopper to guide future development. They must like what they read, though because they keep coming back in steady and larger numbers. By the way, scroll to the bottom of Bond Papers page and you can see at least one set of results from one tracker.

As a last way of telling the impact, consider the number of stories posted here originally or linked here that turn up on the evening news, on radio or in the papers a day or two later. Ask Tom Rideout about Bond Papers and Chief Justice Green's report. The story came up again today on CBC Radio's Crosstalk on Media panel.

After the "oh, gawrsh" moment of modesty, the mention gets tossed into the research hopper.

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Province settles expropriation with Enel, Sun Life and others

Compensating a group of companies involved in the Star Lake affected by the Abitibi expropriation will wind up costing the taxpayers of this province more than the original project cost to build a decade ago.

Natural resources minister Shawn Skinner announced on Monday that provincial government will pay $32.8 million to Enel while Nalcor will assume responsibility for a $40 million loan from Sun Life and other companies.

That’s $72.8 million for a project that originally cost $51 million to build in 1998 according to Enel’s website:

The Star Lake Hydroelectric Project is an 18 MW remotely operated hydroelectric facility with a 173 million cubic meter capacity storage reservoir. The project provides electricity to Newfoundland’s integrated grid, which is sold to Newfoundland & Labrador Hydro.

Construction of Star Lake began in May 1997 and was completed in October 1998 for a total cost of $51 million (CAN).

From the earliest stages of the project, environmental considerations were considered in its development and have been instrumental in the technical design. The facility was conceived using environmentally friendly materials and equipment such as biodegradable hydraulic oil for its intake gate system and an oil-free hydrostatic bearing for the turbine unit. An underground penstock was also designed and implemented in order to avoid obstructing migration routes of the Buchans Plateau caribou herd.

An artificial brook trout incubation and rearing facility is also onsite. It is designed to produce up to 100,000 fingerlings (young fish). These fingerlings are intended for annual introduction to Star Lake to ensure that the lake's brook trout population is maintained.

Skinner is quoted in the news release as saying that this is a “a fair settlement and the most appropriate action for the province to take.”

The provincial government is still in talks with Fortis on compensation for that company on another project affected by the 2008 expropriation bill.

Nalcor has already assumed responsibility for a $59 million loan related to Fortis’ former hydro interests.

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Former Hydro director points to another alternative to costly Muskrat Falls scheme

Add Edward Hearn, a former director of Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro to the growing list of people publicly questioning the proposed Muskrat Falls development.

In a letter to the editor of the Telegram, Hearn supports former Tory finance minister Dr. John Collins’ criticisms of the project.

Hearn says the project is liable to huge cost over-runs and that the resulting energy may be too costly to attract industrial development in the province.

Hearn suggests the province’s energy corporation should explore alternatives, including exercising taxation powers under the constitution.

While he doesn’t state it explicitly, Hearn is referring to the potential use of the public utilities board powers under the 1994 Electrical Power Control Act.  That Act was designed in part to allow the PUB to allocate power generated in the province for domestic use in a way that would not violate the terms of the 1961 Churchill Falls lease or the 1969 Churchill Falls power contract.

Under sections 8 and 9 of the EPCA, the public utilities board may order producers and transmitters to meet a power allocation ordered by the board.  The order would have to come as a result of an inquiry ordered under section 7:

(1)   Where a producer or a retailer believes that it may not be able to supply power sufficient to satisfy the current or anticipated power demands of its customers and prospective customers in accordance with the power policy set out in section 3, it may request the public utilities board to conduct an inquiry into the matter.

The Clyde Wells administration revised the Electrical Power Control Act in 1994.  The basis for the new Act was a report presented to the Brian Peckford administration in 1986 by Wells and other officials of Newfoundland Power at the time.  The Act as it was originally laid out applied equally to all electricity producers and transmitters in the province.

In answering a question from opposition leader Len Simms at the time, Wells said:

It authorizes the Public Utilities Board to redirect any power - any power, no exceptions - to meet the needs of the people of this Province. Not expropriating anything from anybody. It is to manage the power that is generated in this Province in such a manner as to first and foremost meet the needs of the people of this Province. It makes no specific reference to Upper Churchill. It makes no specific reference to power companies. It makes no specific reference to any individual generator of power.

What it does is establish the principle that the Public Utilities Board has to supervise the management of all hydroelectric power generated in the Province in such a manner as to meet first and foremost the needs of the people of this Province, and it sets guidelines as to what are the principles under which they can do it.

Wells introduced the bill at second reading on March 3 when he described the Act in detail.

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