Suppressing Dissent #nlpoli

One of the hallmarks of the Conservative political method since 2003 has been the suppression of public dissent.

Anyone who wants to raise a problem for public discussion is attacked for being “negative.”  It is part of the aggressive campaign the Tories have waged to eliminate political opposition and stifle anything that was not approved by the Premier’s Office.

No surprise, then, that Bonavista mayor Betty Fitzgerald went to her local MHA to get a letter she could sign attacking one of her councillors who had violated the iron Conservative law against dissent.

Marshall’s release doesn’t match DBRS public statements #nlpoli

Simply put, Tom Marshall’s most recent news release about the report by Dominion Bond Rating Service doesn’t match what the bond rating agency said in a news release about the provincial government’s finances.

You can see that pretty clearly if you read the whole release from DBRS.

Muskrat Falls Cost Estimates: the Skinner Numbers #nlpoli

Former natural resources minister Shawn Skinner said this past weekend that he expected the next cost estimate for Muskrat Falls will be around $8.0 to $8.5 billion. [video; Skinner comments are at about 14:00]

Assuming that is for the dam, line to St. John’s, and the line to Nova Scotia, Skinner’s estimate would mean that Nalcor’s cost estimate in 2010 was between 29% and 37% out.

Sadly for proponents of the Muskrat Falls megaproject, those cost increases won’t be the end of it.

The politics of table salt #nlpoli

Tom Hedderson would probably like a do-over.  Responding to an opposition call for a ban on road-side pesticide use by Hedderson’s department, the minister compared the toxicity of the chemical defoliant his people use to table salt.

And table salt was worse!

In politics, that sort of comment can be demonstrably true but it can also be one of those moments where that truth doesn’t matter as much as other truths.

Thinking about Muskrat Falls #nlpoli

People in Nova Scotia are doing a lot of thinking about Muskrat Falls, so it seems.  Here’s part of an opinion piece by Brendan Halley that appeared in the Thursday, August 9 edition:

We should exercise caution in placing too much faith in supply/demand forecasts (Bill Black, Aug. 1). The only certainty is that these forecasts will be wrong. It will take at least until 2017 to build this project. The relevant question is really if the project will make sense in the context of the challenges Nova Scotia will be facing in 2017 or 2020. At that time, will Nova Scotia be pleased to have access to a renewable, flexible source of energy with more import/export capability? Will we want to use the hydro resource and trading capability to complement development of electric vehicles, wind, tidal and solar energy? Or perhaps energy efficiency, smart grid and alternative energy storage technologies will be more attractive?

-srbp-

That would be so cool… #nlpoli

All that stuff about peak oil, oil shortages and ever increasing oil prices?

You know, the sort of stuff that some people claim justifies Muskrat Falls.

Yeah, well maybe they spoke a wee bit too soon.

Bench Mark #nlpoli

The names of two lawyers who might appear in an upcoming news release:

• James Walsh
• Lori Marshall

-srbp-

Take Tom with a grain of salt #nlpoli

Apparently, a herbicide used by the provincial government is about as toxic as table salt.

For those who missed it, here’s transportation minister Tom Hedderson explaining why the herbicide is safe as safe can be.

August Muskrat Round-up #nlpoli

First up, there are lots of ways to make bad decisions.

The Telegram’s Russell Wangersky did a fine job on Tuesday of pointing out that natural resources minister Jerome Kennedy is basically out to lunch when he claims that the Muskrat Falls project won’t likely experience any cost over-runs.

But that’s not the only way Kennedy’s interview On Point With Jonathan Crowe [video] was surreal.

Williams sides with Quebec on energy #nlpoli #cdnpoli

Danny Williams always likes someone who stands up for his or her province.

Well, likes them as long as the someone doing the standing up standing in the way of something Danny wants. .

Anyone who wondered why Williams turned up in the Globe praising British Columbia Premier Christy Clark can now make sense of it all.

The Multiple Muskrat Falsehoods #nlpoli

Zack: Check it out, all about planets this month.

Leonard: That’s an atom.

Zack: Agree to disagree. That’s what I love about science, there’s no one right answer.

Ya gotta love Tory MHA Keith Russell.

Well, not really, love him unless you enjoy a politician who just keeps putting his foot in his mouth all the way up to the hip.

Russell called VOCM’s Back Talk last week to correct supposedly false statements by others.  But in the process, Russell spouted not one, not true but a raft of completely false statements about Muskrat Falls.

The Farce just goes on and on… #nlpoli

The farce that is the provincial government’s effort to sell the Muskrat Falls project continues to roll along.

There are no timelines, the Telegram tells us, or at least none that Nalcor and its political backers will tell the people who will pay the bills for all this mess.

But still, here’s what we can tell from the weekend Telegram:

A change might be as good as a rest #nlpoli

A sign of the problems plaguing Kathy Dunderdale’s aging Conservative administration and their dramatic fall in the polls:  she’s punted her communications director and hired a new one.

Lynn Hammond has the key job in the administration and it will fall on her shoulders to right the communications mess the Dunderdale Tories have been mired in since last year.

Dunderdale’s old comms director – Glenda Powers – got a new job. It looks like a promotion to the top communications job in government.  Under the Tories, though, it has always played second fiddle to the Premier’s Office. 

The real strategic heavy lifting doesn’t get done by the person with the big title. That job -  the real head of government communications  - is now Lynn Hammond.

What’s more noticeable about Powers’ new title is that she has the job in an acting capacity. Odd they haven’t filled it permanently even though the head hunters have been trying to staff the job since well before Josephine Cheeseman left. Is there anyone in town they haven’t spoken to about it?

-srbp-

The cut-throat world of economics #nlpoli

Anyone who attended Wade Locke’s presentation on Muskrat Falls got a tiny glimpse of the vicious world that is modern academics.  it came in the unusually large bit where Locke sliced into his colleague Jim Feehan.  Locke even made a strawman and set fire to it – figuratively of course – just to make sure he had a really persuasive argument. (<--- sarcasm)

Well, it turns out that the field of economics is just seething with this sort of stuff.  Statistics and political science prof Andrew Gelman writes:

Some attitudes surprise me. For example, on his blog, journal editor Steven Levitt wrote, “Is it surprising that scientists would try to keep work that disagrees with their findings out of journals? . . . Within the field of economics, academics work behind the scenes constantly trying to undermine each other.” See my discussion here.

Academics work behind the scenes to undermine each other.

Wow.

Read the link.  The whole discussion is way more interesting than just that bit.

-srbp-

If Ontarians jumped off the wharf… #nlpoli

Ontarians subsidized electricity exports from their province to the tune of about $2.50 a kilowatt hour according to a recent report by the Council for Clean and Reliable Energy and covered by thestar.com.

The total works out to about $1.2 billion annually.

About 80% of Ontario’s electricity generation comes from contracts with producers that exceed the current market price for electricity.  Ontario consumers pay a surcharge to make up the difference.  Customers outside Ontario don;t pay the charge even though the electric comes from generators inside Ontario.

Kathy’s Experts #nlpoli

Would you take advice on a megaproject from a company whose own megaproject is 86% over budget and 26 months behind schedule – and counting?

ladies and gentleman:  Manitoba Hydro International

-srbp-

A Big Tell on Muskrat Falls Exports #nlpoli

A meeting of the Eastern Canadian premiers and all the New England Governors and the provincial government here sends Keith Hutchings.

Who?

A finalized term sheet? #nlpoli

Nalcor and Emera signed a finalised term sheet to develop Muskrat Falls in November 2010.

The next step was supposed to be negotiation of a final agreement between Nalcor and Emera.

Oddly enough, Canadian Press reported on Monday evening that “[s]ources say a deal to finalize a term sheet to develop the Muskrat Falls hydroelectric project in Labrador has been reached.” 

CBC’s David Cochrane tweeted:

CBC has confirmed CP report that NS and NL will sign Muskrat Falls term sheet tomorrow. Multiple sources. Its [sic] final legal text.

“A deal to finalize a term sheet” and “will sign Muskrat Falls term sheet” when they already finalized the term sheet in 2010?

That’s a very odd way of putting it.  Now this could just be media inaccuracy.  If they had a “final legal text”, as Cochrane’s tweet said, then they’d do what they did in 2010 only even bigger because a final deal is…well… even bigger.  

Instead, Nova Scotia Premier Darrell Dexter is in Vermont at a regular meeting of government leaders from eastern Canada and the northeastern United States.  Kathy Dunderdale is MIA.

Instead, the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador issued a media advisory on Monday that natural resources minister Jerome Kennedy will hold a news conference on an “energy-related” subject at 9:45 AM Tuesday after a technical briefing for news media. The event will take place at the provincial government media centre.

The Nova Scotia government is reportedly planning a similar briefing in Halifax. There was no word on whether or not the companies that are supposed to be working out the deal would participate in either event.

The government media centre is not the venue for signing a major deal. Compare that to what happened in 2010.  It was a huge show for much less than the “final legal text” and  - incidentally - what they announced in 2010 was the final legal text of the term sheet. 

Just so that you know what a big deal they had a couple of years ago, here’s an official photo of the event:

The local Conservatives don’t screw around when it comes to major announcements.

In August 2008, the provincial government held a major show when they reached a final deal to develop Hebron. It was bigger than the announcement the previous August of a memorandum of understanding to develop Hebron.

And in August 2005, the provincial government announced a major decision on the Lower Churchill. Big show.

Funny how all these really big announcements come in August, isn’t it?

And funny how a supposedly bigger deal is being announced with a small show.

-srbp-

The Art of Budget Forecasting #nlpoli

The provincial government set its budget this year based on an oil price forecast of US$124 a barrel in 2012.

As we move up on the midway point in the fiscal year (it starts on April 1), oil is well below that.  The result is that the provincial government could wind up with a deficit of nearly three quarters of a billion dollars, according to the Premier.

Some people are amazed by this.

They shouldn’t be.

This fits a pattern.

Those friggers from [insert name of province] #nlpoli

Anyone steeped in the whole Quebec-Newfoundland fight over hydro-electricity exports will look at the whole Alberta-British Columbia fight over oil exports and see the connections.

Sure, they are there.

The most obvious:  one province wants to get somewhere to export its energy product and there’s another province standing in the way.

What else could there be?

Well, lots actually.