Conservatives struggling for candidates #nlpoli

[Includes Hamlet update]

If David Cochrane’s sources are right,  Danny Breen won’t be running for the Conservatives in Virginia Waters after all.

That means that unless the Conservatives come up with an amazing and currently unknown candidate, they will likely not only lose the upcoming by-election but run the risk of coming in third place behind the New Democrats.

Breen has impeccable Conservative credentials.  He’s already well-known having done the impossible: been a strong, solid, and visible performer on St. John’s city council without succumbing to the drama-queen antics of some of his colleagues.

Shawn: Prince of Denmark #nlpoli

The provincial New Democrats have dropped to single digits among respondents to the latest Corporate Research Associates quarterly omnibus poll.*

Other than that everything in the party choice results is the same as it was before Christmas. 

For the Conservatives – up by three points, but well within the margin of error of 4.9% for the unadjusted party support figures – the party has been at the same level in the polls since last May.

The Satisfaction Delusion #nlpoli

You’ll hear Conservatives, Corporate Research Associates, and some commentators play up the fact that public satisfaction with the governing Conservatives has gone up in CRA’s most recent quarterly poll.

That’s wonderful but that poll and a couple of bucks will get you a nice hot coffee at Tim’s.  Other than that,  the satisfaction numbers don”t mean much.

Just to give you a starting point, here are the Conservatives’ satisfaction numbers since the last general election in October 2011.

How did the Old Man work? (Part 1) #nlpoli

The Premier’s Office is a tough place to work.  The demands on everyone in the place are constant.  The implications of what you are dealing with in the office can affect one person or the whole province but more often than not the consequences will be dramatic.

As much as we’ve had some insight into the Conservative administration over the past couple of weeks and the past couple of posts, testimony at the Cameron Inquiry gave us some insight into how things worked during Danny Williams’ time in the Premier’s Office.

Williams appeared before the Inquiry on October 28 and both his chief of staff and communications director appeared as well.

How do they work, exactly? #nlpoli

As laughable as it is for the Premier’s Office to insist former Premier Kathy Dunderdale received only 46 e-mails in a single week and sent none, there are some other things in this little episode that are worth noticing.

Put ‘em all together with other information and you might have something interesting.  Not necessarily huge, but interesting and revealing.

How did she work, exactly? #nlpoli

How odd that the Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador – arguably the busiest job in the province, bar none -  received only 46 e-mails in a one week period in January.

And how extremely odd that none them – apparently  - came from any of her staff, senior public servants, cabinet ministers or other politicians.

And how completely bizarre that in that same period the Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador didn’t send a single e-mail of her own to anyone about anything.

Access to Information - some misunderstandings #nlpoli

A tale out of Ottawa reveals the extent to which access to information problems crop up in lots of places.

CBC News asked for a copy of a memo from the commander of the Canadian Army about leaks of information within the army.  CBC apparently had a copy of the memo or someone had seen it and so they formally requested a copy.

The tale gets interesting because of the internal dispute over how to respond to the request.  Most public affairs officers advised the commander to direct the CBC to file an access to information request.  Only one public affairs officer – a former political aide to Prime Minister Brian Mulroney – advised against that action and, ultimately, refused to be the one to tell CBC what to do.

The army relented, largely due to that refusal, and released the letter to the media without forcing them to go through the access process.

Nalcor following wrong energy path #nlpoli

Think back to last December.

A couple of Nalcor guys bragged about the company’s strategy of importing electricity when they needed during the months when prices were low and then exporting our own electricity when electricity prices were high.

Brilliant idea.  It worked for Hydro-Quebec for most of the past 50 years.

There’s only one problem:  it won’t work any more.

14 years to deliver on 2008 midwives promise #nlpoli

In the fall sitting of the House of Assembly in 2008, the provincial government repealed an old law regulating the practice of midwifery.

Then-health minister Ross Wiseman introduced the repeal bill at second reading and promised to replace it with a new law:

We envisage under the new legislation midwifery being an autonomous profession, separate and apart from nursing. [Hansard, 01 Dec 08]

The Health Professions Act – passed by the House of Assembly in 2010 – made it possible for government to set up midwives as a small, self-regulating profession.

After another four years, you’d think we might be a bit closer to what Wiseman originally promised.  If you thought that, you’d be wrong.

The Sound of Silence #nlpoli

With all the talk the past couple of days about the relationship between the provincial government and the provincial energy corporation, it might be a useful time to ask a fairly simple question:

What does Nalcor do?

Might seem like such an obvious question that it you are laughing, but hang on a second and let’s see what turns up if we go back and look at what the Conservatives said in the past about the energy corporation.

Nalcor running own show on Muskrat Falls #nlpoli

Nalcor Energy is running the Muskrat Falls project without any independent oversight from the provincial government.

In two interviews with the Telegram’s James McLeod  natural resources minister Derrick Dalley identified Nalcor boss Ed Martin as the government’s chief source of information on the project.  According to Dalley,  Martin passes information to the deputy minister of natural resources who passes it to Dalley.

Additionally, noted Dalley’s communications director in an e-mail sent between the two interviews, the “Departments of Finance and Natural Resources work in close collaboration with Nalcor Energy and have regular meetings and exchanges of information…”.

McLeod asked Dalley repeatedly about any use by the provincial government of its own independent sources to vet Nalcor’s work.  Dalley replied that the department didn’t have the expertise to duplicate that of Nalcor.  What’s more,  Daley asked rhetorically,  “why would we duplicate within the department [of natural resources]” the work going on at Nalcor to develop the project.

Dalley cited external contractors  - such as Manitoba Hydro - hired by Nalcor to vet work at each decision gate for the project as an example of work that “we have done” to validate Nalcor’s project management.

Non-voters and Influence #nlpoli

There is a new scourge among us.

An evil that causes “problems”.

Russell Wangersky found them and wrote about them this past weekend.

They are the people who do not vote.

Budget consultations and other political insanity #nlpoli

This year it is Charlene Johnson’s turn to host a series of meetings across the province that the provincial Conservatives cynically tout as a way for people to have some input into the provincial budget.

It’s cynical because – as the Conservatives know – the major budget decisions are already made before the finance minister heads to the first of these meetings. They are a waste of time.

The people who show up at these sessions have no idea what the actual state of the province’s finances are. The provincial government hides the real numbers until budget day.   Therefore the people who show up can’t offer any sensible suggestions, anyway.  Instead, they wind up begging like a bunch of serfs for more cash for this and more cash for that, even though the cash isn’t really available.

Unconscious Press Humour #nlpoli

Digging through a set of files in the provincial archives once upon a time, your humble e-scribbler came across a particular file in a set bequeathed to the archives decades ago by the fellow who wrote the original legislation that helped create the Royal Newfoundland Regiment in the Great War.

The hand-written title on it was “unconscious press humour.”  The file contained a raft of clippings from the local newspapers where the headline made an inadvertent joke when placed in the context of the story.  We are not talking about “Stripper bares all”,  the now legendary Telegram headline from the 1980s that wound up in the National Lampoon’s “True Facts” page thanks to Liberal member of parliament Dave Rooney.  We are talking stuff where some earnest headline writer had put together a groaner entirely by accident.

These days,  you’d title the file on your computer something like “inadvertent media jokes” or if you haven’t grown tired of it yet and wanted to stay true to the original name,  “Bob Wakeham, Volume 15.”

Thinking about the Unthinkable #nlpoli

Only a decade ago, voters turfed Roger Grimes and the Liberals from office as punishment for – among other things – signing a deal to develop a nickel mine even though it was a really good deal.

[Not one teaspoon, they said, echoing a line Brian Tobin used.  Better to leave the ore in the ground than do a deal that involved any ore leaving the province unprocessed]

But leave the oil in the ground rather than pump it out?

Unthinkable. 

That’s curious because leaving the oil in the ground is a valid policy choice for any government, including one in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Who is lobbying whom these days? #nlpoli

When it needed a lobbyist in Ottawa to monitor the federal environmental review process for its Kami project, Alderon Iron Ore turned to Summa Strategies and a well-connected fellow named Tim Powers.

You can find out information like this thanks to the federal registry of lobbyists.  Powers’ registration number for the Alderon gig is 777504-308605.  It’s a matter of public record.

For those who may not know, Powers is also a registered lobbyist (777504-14002) for Nalcor Energy in its dealings with the federal government.  Again, it’s a matter of public record. 

But what about Alderon’s dealings with the provincial government and its agency, Nalcor Energy?  Did they have anyone interceding on their behalf? 

Good question. 

Unfortunately, there’s no easy answer.

Maritime Link delayed almost a year #nlpoli

From the Chronicle Herald:

In its letter, the board also points out that parts of the project have been delayed. That includes a 10-month change in the timeline for the transition to start-up and operations. Commissioning of the 180-kilometre cable is slated to be completed by October 2017 rather than December 2016.  [emphasis added]

-srbp-

Threads #nlpoli

Writing good speeches is more art than science but even without much experience, you can tell when a part of a speech doesn’t ring true.

There was a spot like that in Kathy Dunderdale’s resignation speech.

Hearing it made you wince.

It just didn’t sit right. 

Reading the passage doesn’t make it any better.  Here it is:

Holding Pattern #nlpoli

Justice minister Darin King bailed out of the Conservative Party leadership contest on Monday.

King did it unceremoniously, on Twitter, despite having had a bunch of reporters ask him about it earlier in the afternoon during a media availability.   That way he didn’t have to answer any questions and try to come up with some comment that didn’t make look either like he wasn’t interested in the job or that there was yet another backroom deal coming along to frustrate his ambitions.  Last time around, King was organizing his own run for the top job when he ran headlong into the backroom crowd twisting arms and patting backs for the Dunderdale fix-up.

The reason King had met reporters was in response to a protest about conditions at the penitentiary in St. John’s. Guards protested on Monday.  Last week, one of the inmates had been on the receiving end of a vicious attack by other inmates.

The Game of Throne #nlpoli

In 1979 and 1989, using pretty much the same party constitution as they have now, the provincial Conservatives in Newfoundland and Labrador managed to find a new party leader before the end of March after the leader quit in January. 

In 1979, the Conservatives picked a new leader, went to the polls, and won a resounding victory in a general election by the middle of June.  In 1989, they’d picked a new leader, gone to the polls, and as it turned out, lost a general election. 

In 2014, the Conservative Party announced on Friday that it will only close the nominations for leader on March 14 and the delegate election meetings will run from early April until June. The Conservatives will hold their leadership convention on the first weekend in July and the new Premier will take office at some point after that.

Those are the differences that leap out at you.