Double-down Locke #nlpoli

“I didn’t see this coming,”  Memorial University economist Wade Locke told the Telegram’s James McLeod the other day. Locke was talking about the dramatic drop in oil prices over the past week and a half.

The day before, Locke was on VOCM’s morning talk show dismissing this low oil price stuff as just a passing thing.  No biggie.  And while everyone else is figuring the government is headed farther up a financial shit creek of Amazon proportions, Locke was absolutely confident that prices would go back up and all would be right. 

Sure, government might have to do some trimming, Wade offered, but they should do it gradually over time.  Like losing weight, he said.  If I told you that you had to lose 10 pounds, it would be hard to do it quickly.  But over time, much easier to do.

There’s something truly laughable about Locke’s metaphor because basically Wade is to sound management of public money what a Double-Down from KFC is to heart-smart nutrition.

International expert on key Muskrat Falls feature to deliver public talk #nlpoli

People interested in one of the big geological uncertainties that could affect the Muskrat Falls dam will have a chancer to hear from an international expert later this month.

Dr. Stig Bernander,an international expert on quick clay landslides, will deliver a public talk at the LSPU Hall, on Victoria Street, St John’s at 8 pm Thursday, October 30th.  He will discuss quick clay landslides with particular attention to the North Spur, a key feature of the Muskrat Falls dam project.

Quick clay is clay material deposited under marine conditions upwards of 20,000 years ago.  Exposure to rain coupled with a barely perceptible upward pressure can cause quick clay to liquefy.  The North Spur at Muskrat Falls contains quick clay .

The North Spur is a  one kilometre long strip of land that Nalcor plans to use as a natural dam to hold back the Muskrat Falls reservoir. Failure of the North Spur would catastrophically release all the water in the reservoir and inflict serious downstream damage on Happy Valley/Goose Bay and Mud Lake while essentially wiping out the Province’s Muskrat Falls investment.

Bernander’s visit is being organized by a local concerned citizens group.

Bernander was a chief design engineer for Skanska West, a large international design and construction company based in Sweden with worldwide operations. His ground-breaking research on quick clay led to the development of an updated method for assessing quick clay stability under different conditions. His first publication on brittle slope failures was printed 1978 and his calculation method was gradually developed in the years 1981 to 1989.

From 1980 to 1998, Bernander served as a part-time adjunct professor at Luleå Technical University as well as simultaneously heading the Skanska West Department for architecture and engineering design.

-srbp-

What’s in a name? Justice edition #nlpoli

Premier Paul Davis changed the name of the justice department to “public safety”.  The local chapter of the Canadian Bar Association wrote a letter to Davis.  They complained that the government had changed the name of the department without making clear what the new department would do.

So after a couple of weeks of controversy, Davis added the word “justice” back into the department name.  He issued a news release late on Friday afternoon.

Some people think the name change is good.  Some think it is bad.  What’s more interesting is what the episode has revealed about the Conservatives with Paul Davis in charge.

Election Stragedy #nlpoli

Charlene Johnson quit the legislature first.

The chief electoral office has been plugging special ballot voting in the seat she vacated since the early part of October.  For those who don’t know,  you can vote in Newfoundland and Labrador up to 30 days before the writ drops in any election.  In other words, there is no election at all and no candidates but you can vote.  The catch is you have to vote for a party.

Yes, it’s all completely nutty but such is life in Newfoundland and Labrador under the provincial Conservatives.  And yes, SRBP and others have gone through it all many times before.

Anyway,  under changes the Conservatives made to local election laws,  they have to call the by-election in Trinity-Bay de Verde by November 5, 2014.

On Tuesday,  the provincial government announced there will be a by-election in Conception Bay South on November 5, 2014.

Huh?

The Manning – Coleman Correlation #nlpoli

Some people who read The Independent last week thought that there was a debate going on between Hans Rollmann and Drew Brown over Judy Manning’s appointment as attorney general and minister of justice, public safety, and whatever-the-department-name-will-be-tomorrow.

There wasn’t.

The pair agreed on everything, except one minor issue.

Old Twitchy versus the Telegram #nlpoli

Like clockwork, about two weeks after Danny Williams last got his mug on the news, the most thin-skinned media hound on the planet got himself a ton more ego-stroking attention.

Every two weeks or so.

Like clockwork.

If you don’t believe it, just do some google searching.

Births and Infant Deaths #nlpoli

A recent article in The Atlantic looked at the infant mortality rate in the United States and why it appears so high in comparison to the rest of the world.

After all, the Untied States is one of the richest countries in the world with some of the most sophisticated medical care in the history of mankind.  It seems a bit odd that the infant mortality rate is about 6.1 for every one thousand live births.  That puts the Americans somewhere on par with the Poles and the Slovaks, incidentally.

As The Atlantic piece notes, a recent paper at the University of Chicago explains the numbers.  About 40% of the difference between European and American infant mortality numbers comes from a difference in reporting babies born before the 24th week of gestation.  In other words, Americans report births for premature deliveries that aren’t reported elsewhere.

The biggest difference, though, came from babies after the first 28 days of life.  In particular,  the paper shows that infant mortality for white children is comparable to European data.  Infant mortality among non-white children, from predominantly lower socio-economic circumstances, is much higher and therefore the overall American infant mortality rate is higher than in Europe.

So what about Newfoundland and Labrador?

Questions and Answers #nlpoli

Unelected cabinet minister Judy Manning was “surprised” that her personal relationship with Paul Davis’ political bagman came up in a recent CBC interview.

Surprised?

That’s an interesting choice of words.

Just like it is interesting for Manning to say that:

“Quite frankly, in terms of my predecessors, I don't recall the media ever approaching any of our previous cabinet ministers or our previous premiers about with whom they were sleeping.”

A complete unknown, with a relatively limited experience practicing law and no public profile at all suddenly turns up as an unelected attorney general, states emphatically that she will violate a fundamental constitutional convention, and then says she is surprised that people wonder who she is and where she came from.

She is surprised?

CHC Helicopters’ shitty public relations #nlpoli

“CHC Helicopters Canada is establishing a presence in St. John’s.”

There is something about that comment from a spokesman for a company that, not so very long ago, had its international headquarters in St. John’s that makes you want to either laugh or cry. It’s hard to know which one would be the right response.

It’s pathetic that a spokesman for a company with such a rich history  makes a statement that sounds like the company never operated here before.  The official history of the company makes no mention of Craig Dobbin at all and his company – Sealand – is an incidental part of a story that claims the company grew out of British Columbia’s Okanagan Helicopters. 

That tells you that CHC considers this province to be just another dot on a map where their helicopters fly and the company makes money.  It’s no big deal.  In other words:  St. John’s doesn’t really matter.

Well,  since CHC obviously doesn’t really give a crap about St. John’s, the local business community,   local politicians, and local citizens should treat them the same way. As fast as they “establish a presence” in a city where the company once had a frigging global headquarters, CHC will be gone again.  So while they are here, charge them full fare, cut ‘em no slack, and make whatever you can off them all in the name of free enterprise. 

And no one will shed a tear when they leave again.

It’s not personal.

It’s just business.

-srbp-

The Vision Thing #nlpoli

The St. John’s Board of Trade is about the only business advocacy group in the world that doesn’t actually believe in free enterprise.

The Board doesn’t believe that government should control public debt.  They claim they are worried about it, but in practice the Board will shout with joy the more the government spends.

That sounds ridiculous, but it is true. 

The Board of Trade supports the Muskrat Falls project, for example.  The project involves a massive increase in public debt. There’s no evidence it is the cheapest way to meet the provinces electricity needs.  The only way it can work has been to create a complete monopoly in electricity production in the province that will force locals – including businesses – to bear the full cost plus profit, so that the provincial government’s energy corporation can sell discount electricity everywhere else except inside Newfoundland and Labrador.

The Board of Trade likes Muskrat Falls for two reasons.  Above all else,  the Board’s members want a piece of the construction phase for the project.  It’s pretty simple.  Right behind that,  the Board is notoriously sycophantic. It doesn’t actually advocate for business – like you might expect - as much as follow whatever line the provincial government lays down.

Bizarre, yes.  But simple to understand.

The Board is also a pretty funny organization, too.  Not funny as in bizarre or weird, aside from that anti-free enterprise thing, but funny as in roll on the floor and pee your pants laughing.

Pension Judy #nlpoli

Judy Manning will go down in history as the only unelected cabinet minister in Newfoundland and Labrador since the country gained responsible local government in 1855 who went into office with no intention of seeking a seat in the legislature unless and until she was ready to do so.

The Conservatives are deliberately breaching the centuries-old constitutional convention on cabinet ministers.  It’s spectacular, really, but the attitude that Premier Paul Davis and the Conservatives are displaying on this is hardly surprising.  They think they made the place and that nothing existed before them.  Therefore, they think they own the place.  Pride might go before a fall, but in the Conservative case, they are laying a carpet of breathtaking arrogance before them, as well.

Officially, Manning and Davis have said that she will run in the next general election, whenever that happens. We have a fixed election date, supposedly, so that election could be a year away.  Manning has said we don't know when the election will come and she’s right.  But while Manning has used that to suggest the election many come before next fall,  odds are equally good that it won't come much before the legal limit in October 2016.

So Manning could be working as a minister for upwards of two years without a seat in the House.  She’ll be paid as a minister,  meaning she will get the $54,072 set for cabinet ministers. The amount is small because it’s always been established as an amount on top of the base salary of a member of the House of Assembly.  She’s not getting that salary but, as the Telegram’s James McLeod tells us,  Judy will contribute to the pension plan for members of the House of Assembly.

Some of you might be wondering how that is possible.

IMPS SJ Hobby Show – November 9

The local chapter of the International Plastic Modellers Society will be having its annual model show and competition on November 9 at the Arts and Culture Centre in St. John’s.

You can find more information at the chapter website along with some samples of what the talented local modelling community produces.

-srbp-

It’s what your boobs are for #nlpoli

The first week of October is World Breastfeeding Week.

Check out babyfriendlynl.ca and you can find information on some of the activities going on across the province.

Breastfeeding is the SRBP cause,  for those who don’t know.  Check out this post from 2009 that proposes a provincial goal for breastfeeding that we can achieve:  66 at 6 in 2.  66% of newborns need to be breastfeeding at six months old. We can get from where we are to that 66% target in two years.

The current rates are way lower than that.

We can turn that around.

All we have to do realise it’s more important to get more of our babies on the tit instead of more local politicians.

-srbp-

Madness #nlpoli

The day after she took the oath of office,  Judy Manning, the province’s new attorney general and minister of public safety, and Premier Paul Davis, her boss,  are facing intense public criticism.

It’s hard to tell whether people are more upset by her evident, and admitted, lack of experience practicing law or the fact that neither she nor her boss are too fussed about getting her a seat in the House of Assembly any time soon.

Either one alone would be enough to call in question Davis’ fitness for the job.  The two combined are damning.  On top of that, you have to add in the completely unnecessary appointment of Keith Russell to cabinet. Then the day before, you have the latest twist in the Humber Valley Paving saga:  it’s really as rough a first couple of days as any politician has had.

There are so many things to discuss but to keep things manageable let’s down on the Manning Mess.

The Usual Suspects #nlpoli

The Conservatives who said Premier Paul Davis was going to doing nothing more than shuffle the cabinet that was already there got it absolutely right.

On Tuesday,  Davis announced his new cabinet and the names and jobs are all very familiar.  To give the illusion of change, Davis re-organized a couple of the portfolios and gave them some new names but basically, there are no changes of direction in the bunch.

Everyone noticed that Davis rewarded Steve Kent for his support leading up to and during the leadership convention.  Kent got the biggest portfolio – health – and will be the deputy premier and minister responsible for the Office of Public Engagement.

They also noticed the political unknown Davis found to take over the renamed justice portfolio.  The new minister, the unelected Judy Manning isn’t news on her own. Calling the department of police, prisons, and fire trucks the ministry of public safety is as old as the hills.

The big story in the cabinet shuffle is somewhere else.

Errors in judgement #nlpoli

March 13, 2014 was a Thursday.

Normal cabinet day.

According to Auditor General Terry Paddon’s report on the Humber Valley Paving contract,  Nick McGrath, then minister of works and transportation called his deputy minister at 8:45 AM and asked him whether he’d heard that HVP wanted to get out of their Labrador paving contract. (p.39) He hadn’t.

There’s no indication of how McGrath became aware of HVP’s problems.  According to Paddon’s report,  McGrath told him that he “may have” heard about HVP from colleagues. (p.54)  It’s all pretty vague.

The deputy called Gene Coleman at 9:15 AM, according to Paddon.  Coleman,  son of the erstwhile Conservative leadership candidate McGrath claims he had not heard of, confirmed the company “would not be going back to Labrador” (p. 54) in 2014, at least not without compensation.  Coleman indicated that without compensation,  HVP would want a mutually-agreed termination of the contract with the government. (p.39)

The Fairity Intervention

At 9:30 AM,  the deputy got a call from Kevin O’Brien.  He was calling about  the HVP contract, too, even though O;Brien had no reason to be involved.  (p. 39)  Asked by Paddon later how he became aware of the issue, O’Brien  - who was also an organizer for Frank Coleman’s leadership campaign - said that he had heard “colleagues” talking,  wanted to speak with the deputy about other issues but raised the HVP issue because of the potential connection to forest fires in Labrador.  (p. 54)   O’Brien was minister of fire and emergency services

All our yesterdays #nlpoli

Someone in Paul Davis’ campaign has a quirky sense of humour.

They picked Bill Clinton’s 1992 election theme music for Davis to use as his walk-in music during the convention.  Let’s leave aside the eventual Bill Clinton of stains on little blue dresses and just look at the 1992 presidential election for a second.

Clinton was the Democratic Party insurgent tackling the other half of one of the more popular Republican presidents in a generation.  Ronald Reagan had run two successful majorities and passed on the legacy to his vice-president – George Bush – who had won handily in 1988.  Bush himself had become hugely popular after defeating Saddam Hussein in 1991 during the First Gulf War.  He’d faltered though, as the American economy faltered. The result was that Bill Clinton won the election in 1992 and ended Republican control of the White House after a dozen years.

Premier Davis and the Dead Children #nlpoli

Paul Davis will get a lift down to Government House this afternoon and swear the oath of office so Tom Marshall can finally get out of politics.

It’s been about two weeks since Davis won the Conservative Party leadership and that’s a fairly typical period of time between election and taking office.  What hasn’t been normal is that Davis has been doing something in the Premier’s Office since last week.  He’s been standing in for the real Premier and we don;t know for sure what else he has been doing.

Davis doesn’t have a cabinet yet.  He’s going to name the cabinet and get them sworn in next week.  As for office staff,  Davis has named a chief of staff but there’s no sign yet of other names for other jobs.  One of the key jobs that is going begging is the person to run Davis’ public communications. 

There’s talk Davis will run a national competition for someone to take the job.  What would happen in the meantime – if he really goes that idiotic route – is anyone’s guess.  By the time they find someone to take the communications job, Davis’ political goose may already be cooked.

No Privacy Protection in Marshall’s Office #nlpoli

Someone sent a request to the Premier’s Office for access to all “Email [sic], memos, letters, notes between Elizabeth Matthews and the premier’s office [sic] between June 1, 2013 and June 1, 2014”.

The Premier’s Office sent the person a couple of e-mails.  They deleted some information under section 30 (personal information) and section 7(2) of the Access to Information and Protection of Personal Privacy Act. That second section basically allows government to sever information that is exempted from disclosure.

Read the completed access request and you will see the only thing they deleted was Matthews’ e-mail address.

Problem:  the entire disclosure violates section 30 of the ATIPPA. 

Cabinet documents and deliberations #nlpoli

One of the big changes Bill 29 made to the province’s access to information law was to give a list of documents that could not be released under the Access to Information and Protection of Privacy Act because they were cabinet documents.

Before then, the law in Newfoundland and Labrador, like the similar laws in the rest of the country merely said that people couldn’t get anything that would make public what the cabinet ministers talked about, in private, among themselves.  A British Columbia government policy manual explains why:

Premature disclosure of Cabinet deliberations inhibits the ability of Cabinet members to debate issues openly and freely, thereby reducing the effectiveness of Cabinet’s decision making role.

One of the reasons no one bothered to define a cabinet document and bar that from disclosure is that no one could really say what a cabinet document is.  People who’ve never dealt with cabinet or who have never had occasion to think about these things wouldn’t understand that how cabinet operates can vary widely from first minister to first minister.  The changes made in Bill 29 reflect how cabinet operates these days but Paul Davis or any of the ministers who come along later may run cabinet in such a way that most of those mandatory exemptions of certain pieces of paper won’t matter a bit.

There’s no firm rule as to who may sit in the room with cabinet.  Some administrations have allowed only  the clerk of the council and a deputy clerk into the room to provide administrative support.  Other people may come into the room and make a presentation but they get shuffled out of the room before cabinet discusses anything. In other administrations, they’ve had all sorts of hangers-on sitting in the room.  Most often, the extra bodies are senior political people from the first minister’s office.

At times,  the Executive Council hasn’t included everyone with a ministerial portfolio.  And on occasion pretty well every cabinet will throw everyone out of the room and discuss something entirely among themselves.  But there might never be a paper for them to read in advance, a note, a presentation or anything of the sort.

To give you a sense of how cabinets operate,  consider that, until 1989,  cabinet didn’t keep minutes like most boards and committees do.  Cabinet met.  They talked about things.  The only record of any decision would be the official “minute” issued by the cabinet secretariat and approved by the lieutenant governor.  That’s what made the decision the legal authority someone would need to carry it out.

Even the form of the minute varies.  These days,  it includes a list of people who get a copy.  There’s a number on it and the actual statement of the decision includes all sorts of references to the authority cited for making the decision. 

Go back a hundred years and you will find piles of these minutes.  They might be as little as a sentence or two.  The certified minutes, the ones that needed the Governor’s signature, were written out long-hand in a book the Governor kept.

That’s where things get interesting.  Note that the minute above refers to a meeting of the committee of the Executive Council.  The ones a century ago that your humble e-scribbler has been reading lately say pretty much the same thing.  That’s the another way of saying the Executive Council without the lieutenant governor present for the meeting.  These days it is unheard of for the Queen’s representative to attend any meeting of the council, federal or provincial, here in Britain or anywhere else.  A century ago,  a committee of the council – cabinet ministers without the Governor  - met to discuss all sorts of routine things, including budgets.

Back then, there were meetings of the Executive Council.  They took place at Government House and, as near as your humble e-scribbler can figure, they included the Governor. A good example was the meeting held at 3:30 p.m. August 7, 1914 to decide on the Newfoundland contribution to the war.  You can hunt for any record of the meeting in the cabinet papers and you’ll never find a mention.  We know it happened, though, because the Governor refers to to it in letters.  There’s a specific note in his type-written daily diary and the Prime Minister mentions it in a letter or two written around the same time.  We know they discussed a proposal drafted by the Governor two days beforehand, apparently based on discussions with the Prime Minister.  The version cabinet approved is not exactly what the Governor proposed.

There’s no record of that meeting, though, just as there is no record or any other meeting of the whole council during the period from about 1908 to 1914.  There might be others but YHE-S hasn’t gotten to them yet.

There’s nothing odd about that, by the way.  The British cabinet didn’t keep any record of decisions until after the war started.  There could sometimes be a huge gulf among ministers about what, if anything, they’d discussed and decided.  The only formal record of any sort through most of the 19th century was a letter written weekly by successive Prime Ministers to the Queen, for her information.  Even then, what the Prime Minister said cabinet discussed and agreed on might not be what ministers recalled.

Incidentally, for those who might be wondering about the endless trips to Government House to appoint ministers lately, you need only check the Executive Council Act to see that it wasn’t necessary:  “The Lieutenant-Governor in Council” – meaning the whole cabinet – “on the advice of the Premier may appoint a minister as acting minister for another minister during the absence or incapacity for any cause of that other minister, and all acts of an acting minister shall have the same effect as if done by the minister in whose place he or she is acting.” 

They’ve appointed acting ministers countless times over the past decade,  most often to cover off Charlene Johnson when she was on one kind of leave or another.  Tom Marshall could have done exactly the same thing as ministers quit for one reason or another. The only question is why he chose to swear in new ministers and shuffle his cabinet around all the time.

-srbp-