Updated NL Public Service Numbers, 2003-2016 #nlpoli

A couple of access to information requests  - pdf 1  and pdf 2 - gave the world some new numbers on the growth in the core provincial public service from 2003 onward.

Here are the grand totals in a nice chart.  Each year is the total as of 31 December for that year.  The 2016 number is the figure on July 4.  The figures give changes in each department, excluding health care employees, the school boards and Crown agencies, boards, and corporations.  We'll look at the departmental figures in another post.  The Telegram's James McLeod apparently made the request wrote about someone else's access to information request,  just as your humble e-scribbler is doing, but it looks like he drew some erroneous conclusions in tracking the growth of specific parts of the public service.

The Big Picture numbers are useful, though.
There were 6851 public servants at the end of 2003.  That dropped to 6715 the following year and in 2006, the Conservatives started to hire.

They peaked in 2011 with 8952 public servants.  That's 33% larger from seven years earlier, in 2004.

Since then the public service has declined by slightly less than 1,000 positions, which is about a 10% reduction.

Sharp-eyed readers will note the differences in the figures supplied in a different access to information request in June.

The differences are small but they illustrate the difficulties you can run into some times.

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Policy Stagnation #nlpoli

The provincial government has been on its current course since about 2007.  

There were three elements to the Conservatives agenda under Danny Williams.  They changed somewhat over time but these are the elements that dominated from 2003 to 2015.

Above all else, Williams’ goal was to build the Lower Churchill.  That was to be his one, lasting accomplishment.  Williams would build what no one else had been able to build.  While it was rationalised as a provincial project with lasting significance, the way it finally rolled out confirmed the extent to which the Lower Churchill was intensely personal.

To build the Lower Churchill, Williams would turn Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro into an energy corporation to rival Hydro-Quebec. And to help fund it, Williams would acquire so-called equity stakes in offshore projects.

The Supreme Court of Canada #nlpoli

When the Church Lady shows up,  you know your comment on the Internet has hit the mark.

The term comes from the self-righteous character made famous by Dana Carvey on Saturday Night Live and if there was a male equivalent, your humble e-scribbler would happily use it.  Church Lady comments are the ones where the person avoids the sharply-pointed substance of what you said in favour of scolding you for the way you said it.

Your humble e-scribbler scored two Church Lady responses on Twitter this week from two different on two different topics.

Score!

The one to start this post was about an opinion column by CBC's Peter Cowan about the federal government's decision to change the way it will solicit nominees for a vacancy on the Supreme Court.  There are three things about Cowan's column worth noting.

The Price of Revanchism #nlpoli

Churchill Falls occupies a unique place in Newfoundland and Labrador's political culture.

Most of what people believe about Churchill Falls is just sheer nonsense.  Made up.  Never true. Completely ludicrous.  But accepted as fact and unshakeable truth all the same.  And that's where things get weird. People use all that foolishness nonsense to make decisions in the real world.

One of the enduring legends is that Newfoundland wanted a corridor to wheel electricity through Quebec,  went to the federal government in the 1960s to look for one, couldn't get it, and thus wound up a slave to Hydro-Quebec in 1969.  It's been a popular story since the 1970s,  after the Newfoundland government nationalised BRINCO.

There's never been any evidence that Joe Smallwood ever put the question to Lester Pearson although lots of people will swear to it and swear by the story as evidence of how Newfoundland has been shagged by whatever version of the foreign boogie-man they favour.  

Danny Williams trotted the story out, indirectly, in November 2010 when he announced he had committed the provincial government to build Muskrat Falls.  Our electricity would never be stranded again.  We would never again be held hostage by Quebec.  The new, magnificent power corridor through Nova Scotia was the way that we would break Quebec's stranglehold over our magnificent future.

Yay!  Hooray! people screamed, including more than a few editors and columnists.

The only thing was that what Williams said wasn't true.

And he knew it.

The Quebec Superior Court Decision #nlpoli

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Water Rights, Muskrat Falls, and the Muskrat Falls Disaster #nlpoli

Forget everything else that you know about Muskrat Falls.

The entire project hinged on Nalcor's ability to control water flows on the Churchill River.  Nalcor's internal assessments showed that without the ability to control water flows, Nalcor's Lower Churchill project would reliably produce only about 17% of its nameplate capacity.  That means that Muskrat Falls would have a firm generating capacity of about 140 megawatts,  which is less than the free block of power Nalcor guaranteed Emera and Nova Scotia.

Nalcor gambled on a dubious interpretation of the 1969 power contract and lost.

The impact on Muskrat Falls will be devastating.

Here's why.

OCI dumps troubled shrimp plant on taxpayers #nlpoli

Ocean Choice International is in better financial shape today, having successfully dumped a surplus shrimp processing facility on the people of Port Union.  The plant - seriously damaged in 2010 during Hurricane Igor still needs major renovations.

OCI put the plant on the market in 2012 but couldn't find buyers.  In 2012,  company president Blaine Sullivan said that even if the hurricane hadn't damaged the plant, OCI would have closed either Port Union or the company's other shrimp plant in Port aux Choix.  The company couldn't supply both profitably with declines in the shrimp quota.

A company with strong ties to the provincial and federal Conservatives, OCI picked up the Port Union plant and other assets after the former provincial Conservative administration hounded Fishery Products International into self-destruction.

Then-fisheries minister Tom Rideout  - right, precisely as illustrated,  - played a key role in the campaign to destroy FPI.

Neil King, the Liberal MHA for the district, posted on Facebook that he would "be working with the town to secure funding for renovations which will create jobs in the short term."  That money would come from taxpayers, of course, although King did say if he'd be looking to St. John's or Ottawa to help out.

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Related:  The Walking Dead

Afraid of a second moratorium #nlpoli

During the filibuster in the last session of the House of Assembly, education minister Dale Kirby reminded everyone of why the current administration is following its financial policy.

Didn't want to create a second moratorium,  Kirby said.  or words to that effect.

Significant cuts to government spending of the kind needed to cope with the government's financial problem would cause a second moratorium.  Kirby's point was that the current crowd were not gonna do that.

No way.

Fernando 2: Liberals start Tory-style poll goosing #nlpoli

It's August and Corporate Research Associates is in the field.

On Tuesday, Ed Joyce told the people of Holyrood, Isles aux Morts, and Jackson's Arm that they would each be getting new fire trucks.

No, Ed didn't deliver a new fire truck to each community.  He held a news conference to announce that the three communities fire trucks were on order.

Hmmm.

Why would anyone hold a big announcement to say that government had put money aside for a new fire truck for three towns?

Go back and read that first sentence again.

Yes folks.  The Liberals - tanking in the polls - are going to try and goose that CRA poll with some happy news.

Whitbourne, schools, and democracy #nlpoli

Parents in Whitbourne took the provincial government's English School District to court over the closure of the local school.

They won.

It's proof that a few determined people can use the tools at their disposal to fight for what they believe in.  They don't need some government-paid consultant, no matter what someone angling for a government job might suggest.  People need only have the courage of their convictions.

Courage.

Convictions.

That's all you need.  That's how democracy works.

Trump and Proto-Trump and babies #nlpoli

Speaking about his popularity and the loyalty of his supporters:

"They say that I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn't lose voters." 

Donald Trump.  Sioux Center, Iowa, January 2016 

And on babies...

Speaking about the popularity of a guy who was once the opening act on a triple bill with Donald Trump and Rudy Gulliani,  Craig Welsh once said this of Danny Williams:

And what I mean by "he can get away with doing it" is that the premier's popularity is such that he could strangle a baby in the middle of the Avalon Mall parking lot with the assembled provincial media in attendance and there would be people that would say the baby had it coming.

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Gandhi, Mandela, and a guy in a chicken suit #nlpoli

If the provincial New Democrats had sent a garden gnome around the province, odds are that the photos he'd have brought back would be more interesting than the stuff Earle McCurdy is posting from his wanderings around the province this summer.

This is a picture Earle tweeted on Monday from a coffee shop in Gander.  Admittedly, it has been a few years since your humble e-scribbler has visited Suburbia-in-the-Woods, but recent news reports suggest that there is a sizeable population of folks still there.

Well, enough at least that a fellow of the political stature of Chainsaw Earle might possibly manage to draw enough of an audience on his own account as to populate a decent size photo.  And certainly enough if the local squad of New Democratic Party zealots got all together in one spot, they might be able to pass themselves off as  something resembling a handful, if not a bunch.

But one person?

That's just embarrassing.

CF(L)Co v. Hydro-Quebec (Court of Appeal) #nlpoli

The full text of the Quebec Court of Appeal decision in Churchill Falls (Labrador) Corporation v. Hydro-Quebec:  pdf

Sucks to be you Update:  Did CBC NL suck back this tweet linking to their story on the Churchill Falls decision:

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Continuing continuity #nlpoli

In the face of thousands of well-informed people telling Dwight Ball that the provincial government must change direction to survive, in the face of mountains of evidence that the province has been on the wrong course since 2005 or so, and lately, in the face of dire warnings from the folks who advise others about the value of the government's bonds,  Dwight Ball will continue to do what everyone knows doesn't work.

The provincial government is abandoning its economic plans, as the Telegram's James McLeod would have it last Friday.

Well, not really.

The Unhappy Gang #nlpoli

The provincial cabinet ended a "retreat" at The Rooms by holding a news conference on Thursday using as a backdrop posters commemorating the slaughter of the Newfoundland regiment at Beaumont Hamel a century ago.

Not exactly the kind of image you want to have but at least it fit with a new poll from MQO that shows the Liberals are now in third place behind the provincial New Democrats with the Conservatives on top.

You can see the party choice numbers in the table, below.  April and July are MQO.  May is Corporate Research Associates.  Compare the MQO numbers:  the Conservatives have grown eight points since April and are now in first place.  The Liberals have dropped five points and are in third place.

Reforming the courts #nlpoli

The numbers in Tuesday's post showed all the time spent in the court in each seat,  totalled up for the month, averaged,  then divided by seven to give an estimate of full-days the courts in the province actually sit.

Judges do other work besides sitting in their courts.  But you really have to wonder if the courts are as overtaxed as some would have it when you have so many of the judges spending as little as three days or even six days a month, in total, actually sitting in court hearing evidence or motions or what have you.

The truth is the Provincial Courts  are not burdened at all. According to people familiar with the operations of the courts, about 85% of the charges laid in Provincial Court never go to trial.  There are either plea deals or the charges are withdrawn.

The truth about Danny Williams, Hydro-Quebec, and the Lower Churchill #nlpoli

Danny Williams promised he would never cut a deal on the Lower Churchill with Hydro-Quebec unless it included redress for the 1969 contract.

But as Kathy Dunderdale revealed in 2009,  Williams spent five years secretly trying to sell the Lower Churchill to Hydro-Quebec without any redress at all.

Then Williams got pissed off because Hydro-Quebec wasn't interested.

Here's what Dunderdale told VOCM's Randy Simms in September 2009 about Williams' desperate efforts to get a deal with Hydro-Quebec:

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One Danny does Two Ronnies #nlpoli

In an exclusive interview, VOCM's Fred Hutton caught up with Danny Williams to talk about Williams' latest project.

The former premier is teaming up with his old sidekick Ed Martin to headline a Florida dinner theatre tribute to the late, diminutive comedian Ronnie Corbett.

One Danny does Two Ronnies will premiere on the Labour Day weekend at his new dinner theatre in St. Petersburg.

Williams said he was looking forward to being back in the limelight.

He said that he is working on plans to tour arts and culture centres in Newfoundland and Labrador with the show in 2017 as the opening act on a triple bill with Anna McGoldrick and the Carlton Showband.

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Good-bye John #nlpoli

In their last year in office, the provincial Conservatives went on a patronage bend on top of the patronage bender they started in 2003.  They came into office promising reform and - you guessed it - did exactly the opposite.  If there is no greater fraud than a promise not kept, then then Old Man and his cronies were the biggest political fraudsters in the history of political fraud.

We told you about this last July when Paul Davis appointed political operative John Ottenheimer to replace political operative Len Simms as head of the provincial government's housing corporation. After the Ottenheimer appointment, Davis and the Conservatives kept going with the questionable appointments.  The swap of the chief judge in Provincial Court remains highly suspicious and unexplained, as does the sudden firing of the High Sheriff.  The former is one the new Liberal administration genuinely could not do anything about.  The former High Sheriff is now suing the provincial government for wrongful dismissal.

The Liberals could have and should have done something about all the others.  It was a way of setting a new tone for their administration and demonstrating that things that are wrong cannot stand.  For some unknown reason, Dwight Ball would not commit to reversing the Ottenheimer appointment  - on principle - when Davis made it a year ago. When he took office, Dwight Ball decided to leave not only Ottenheimer but all the other Conservatives appointees in place.  And when he unveiled the new appointments commission, Ball had a third opportunity to set a new standard for government appointments by getting rid of the old, wrong ones.

He didn't.

Now, Ball has punted John Ottenheimer.  We do not know why.  No one from the provincial government did any interviews. The minister responsible for the housing corporation issued a news release announcing Ottenheimer's replacement.  Everything else that we know - including the size of Ottenheimer's severance - came from Ottenheimer himself.

How many days does a Provincial Court sit? #nlpoli

If you listen to some people,  Provincial Courts in the province are seriously overloaded such that with the loss of a couple of court houses - not judges, but buildings - we could see cases running upwards of 49 months or more and therefore causing massive constitutional problems.

Nothing could be further from the truth, of course, as statistics on Provincial Courts show.

Some others would have you believe the courts cannot become any more efficient than they are.

Again.  Truth.  That claim.  Not even close to the same thing.

So what is the sitch in the courts?