Message Control #nlpoli

Memorial University professor Alex Marland has a new book on the market.  Brand Command is about political communications.  Marland interviewed a lot of people and did a lot of research for this very big book that lots of people should read.

One of the big ideas in the book is that politicians these days are very keen on something called message control.  They have a fetish for consistency so that everyone is singing the same things from the same hymn book, as the metaphor goes. It's an old idea and there are many reasons why politicians like to be consistent.  For one thing,  repetition across many means of communication increases the likelihood the message gets through.

On another level, though,  consistent messaging means ultimately that actions match words.  The message of the words must match the message in the action that makes those words real.

In that sense,  message consistency is about credibility and values and trust. Politicians like to tell people what they believe in and  how they will make decisions. Voters don't spend a lot of time thinking about government so they want someone they can trust to make decisions they agree with or can generally trust are the right ones.  When political analysts talk about "connecting with voters"  that's what they are getting at. 

The real connection voters need to see is the one between the words used to make promises with the actions that follows.  That connection makes the words credible 0 literally, believable - the next time there are words about what the politician will do.

Anything that attacks a politician's credibility is bad and when - as in Ball's case - the wounds are all self-inflicted, then you know there is a huge problem.

So why did Dwight Ball fire John Ottenheimer?

Being from there #nlpoli

Some people are very agitated at the prospect that the next justice of the Supreme Court of Canada might not "represent" Atlantic Canada like Justice Thomas Cromwell does.

How exactly does one represent a region on a court or anywhere else for that matter?  Do you have to come from there, for argument sake?  Born there?

Well, Justice Cromwell is from Ontario.

Mary Ellen Turpel-Lafond is touted by some as a sure bet to get the appointment.  From Saskatchewan. Taught law at Dalhousie,  University of Toronto,  Notre Dame and a few other places her bio doesn't mention.  Does that sort of thing count in her favour, seeing as she has experience living and working across the country?

The next person appointed to the Supreme Court of Canada should get the job based on merit that is related to the law and justice.  Everything else - including facility with French - should be secondary.

-srbp-

The word is "curious" #nlpoli

B'y, it is really hard to call the changes announced on Wednesday as a "shake-up" of the public service or any kind of major change to anything really.

Aside from chucking a very small number of people out the door,  this change to the structure of government didn't do much of anything but leave you wondering what the point was.

There have been rumblings of these changes going back months.  Folks looking for some sort of massive shake-up in the fall might be disappointed to discover this was it.  Most likely the next big news we will get is in the budget next spring.

But let's run through Wednesday's head-shaker-upper-whatever.

Cenotaphs and Veterans #nlpoli

The Town of Placentia has a new cenotaph.

Here's how the Southern Gazette writer described the new monument:  "The Cenotaph is a tribute to those from all the current and former communities of Placentia Bay who served in the First World War, Second World War, Korean War and peacekeeping missions."

Tribute is nice.

And it is a tribute to all the people who served in war and in peacekeeping operations.

Served.

The Oxford English Dictionary defines a cenotaph as "a monument to someone buried elsewhere, especially one commemorating people who died in a war."

Not served.

Died.

A cenotaph cannot honour veterans. The word comes from the Latin and Greek words for empty tomb. They survived a war or peacekeeping mission, by definition. 

While it is a really lovely idea to gather together a list of all the people from Placentia Bay who served in the military at some point, maybe there is a better way to recognise their service - not their death - than erecting a big slab of rock and calling it a cenotaph.

-srbp-

Updated NL Public Service Numbers, 2003-2016 #nlpoli

A couple of access to information requests  - pdf 1  and pdf 2 - gave the world some new numbers on the growth in the core provincial public service from 2003 onward.

Here are the grand totals in a nice chart.  Each year is the total as of 31 December for that year.  The 2016 number is the figure on July 4.  The figures give changes in each department, excluding health care employees, the school boards and Crown agencies, boards, and corporations.  We'll look at the departmental figures in another post.  The Telegram's James McLeod apparently made the request wrote about someone else's access to information request,  just as your humble e-scribbler is doing, but it looks like he drew some erroneous conclusions in tracking the growth of specific parts of the public service.

The Big Picture numbers are useful, though.
There were 6851 public servants at the end of 2003.  That dropped to 6715 the following year and in 2006, the Conservatives started to hire.

They peaked in 2011 with 8952 public servants.  That's 33% larger from seven years earlier, in 2004.

Since then the public service has declined by slightly less than 1,000 positions, which is about a 10% reduction.

Sharp-eyed readers will note the differences in the figures supplied in a different access to information request in June.

The differences are small but they illustrate the difficulties you can run into some times.

-srbp-

Policy Stagnation #nlpoli

The provincial government has been on its current course since about 2007.  

There were three elements to the Conservatives agenda under Danny Williams.  They changed somewhat over time but these are the elements that dominated from 2003 to 2015.

Above all else, Williams’ goal was to build the Lower Churchill.  That was to be his one, lasting accomplishment.  Williams would build what no one else had been able to build.  While it was rationalised as a provincial project with lasting significance, the way it finally rolled out confirmed the extent to which the Lower Churchill was intensely personal.

To build the Lower Churchill, Williams would turn Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro into an energy corporation to rival Hydro-Quebec. And to help fund it, Williams would acquire so-called equity stakes in offshore projects.

The Supreme Court of Canada #nlpoli

When the Church Lady shows up,  you know your comment on the Internet has hit the mark.

The term comes from the self-righteous character made famous by Dana Carvey on Saturday Night Live and if there was a male equivalent, your humble e-scribbler would happily use it.  Church Lady comments are the ones where the person avoids the sharply-pointed substance of what you said in favour of scolding you for the way you said it.

Your humble e-scribbler scored two Church Lady responses on Twitter this week from two different on two different topics.

Score!

The one to start this post was about an opinion column by CBC's Peter Cowan about the federal government's decision to change the way it will solicit nominees for a vacancy on the Supreme Court.  There are three things about Cowan's column worth noting.

The Price of Revanchism #nlpoli

Churchill Falls occupies a unique place in Newfoundland and Labrador's political culture.

Most of what people believe about Churchill Falls is just sheer nonsense.  Made up.  Never true. Completely ludicrous.  But accepted as fact and unshakeable truth all the same.  And that's where things get weird. People use all that foolishness nonsense to make decisions in the real world.

One of the enduring legends is that Newfoundland wanted a corridor to wheel electricity through Quebec,  went to the federal government in the 1960s to look for one, couldn't get it, and thus wound up a slave to Hydro-Quebec in 1969.  It's been a popular story since the 1970s,  after the Newfoundland government nationalised BRINCO.

There's never been any evidence that Joe Smallwood ever put the question to Lester Pearson although lots of people will swear to it and swear by the story as evidence of how Newfoundland has been shagged by whatever version of the foreign boogie-man they favour.  

Danny Williams trotted the story out, indirectly, in November 2010 when he announced he had committed the provincial government to build Muskrat Falls.  Our electricity would never be stranded again.  We would never again be held hostage by Quebec.  The new, magnificent power corridor through Nova Scotia was the way that we would break Quebec's stranglehold over our magnificent future.

Yay!  Hooray! people screamed, including more than a few editors and columnists.

The only thing was that what Williams said wasn't true.

And he knew it.

The Quebec Superior Court Decision #nlpoli

-srbp-

Water Rights, Muskrat Falls, and the Muskrat Falls Disaster #nlpoli

Forget everything else that you know about Muskrat Falls.

The entire project hinged on Nalcor's ability to control water flows on the Churchill River.  Nalcor's internal assessments showed that without the ability to control water flows, Nalcor's Lower Churchill project would reliably produce only about 17% of its nameplate capacity.  That means that Muskrat Falls would have a firm generating capacity of about 140 megawatts,  which is less than the free block of power Nalcor guaranteed Emera and Nova Scotia.

Nalcor gambled on a dubious interpretation of the 1969 power contract and lost.

The impact on Muskrat Falls will be devastating.

Here's why.

OCI dumps troubled shrimp plant on taxpayers #nlpoli

Ocean Choice International is in better financial shape today, having successfully dumped a surplus shrimp processing facility on the people of Port Union.  The plant - seriously damaged in 2010 during Hurricane Igor still needs major renovations.

OCI put the plant on the market in 2012 but couldn't find buyers.  In 2012,  company president Blaine Sullivan said that even if the hurricane hadn't damaged the plant, OCI would have closed either Port Union or the company's other shrimp plant in Port aux Choix.  The company couldn't supply both profitably with declines in the shrimp quota.

A company with strong ties to the provincial and federal Conservatives, OCI picked up the Port Union plant and other assets after the former provincial Conservative administration hounded Fishery Products International into self-destruction.

Then-fisheries minister Tom Rideout  - right, precisely as illustrated,  - played a key role in the campaign to destroy FPI.

Neil King, the Liberal MHA for the district, posted on Facebook that he would "be working with the town to secure funding for renovations which will create jobs in the short term."  That money would come from taxpayers, of course, although King did say if he'd be looking to St. John's or Ottawa to help out.

-srbp-

Related:  The Walking Dead

Afraid of a second moratorium #nlpoli

During the filibuster in the last session of the House of Assembly, education minister Dale Kirby reminded everyone of why the current administration is following its financial policy.

Didn't want to create a second moratorium,  Kirby said.  or words to that effect.

Significant cuts to government spending of the kind needed to cope with the government's financial problem would cause a second moratorium.  Kirby's point was that the current crowd were not gonna do that.

No way.

Fernando 2: Liberals start Tory-style poll goosing #nlpoli

It's August and Corporate Research Associates is in the field.

On Tuesday, Ed Joyce told the people of Holyrood, Isles aux Morts, and Jackson's Arm that they would each be getting new fire trucks.

No, Ed didn't deliver a new fire truck to each community.  He held a news conference to announce that the three communities fire trucks were on order.

Hmmm.

Why would anyone hold a big announcement to say that government had put money aside for a new fire truck for three towns?

Go back and read that first sentence again.

Yes folks.  The Liberals - tanking in the polls - are going to try and goose that CRA poll with some happy news.

Whitbourne, schools, and democracy #nlpoli

Parents in Whitbourne took the provincial government's English School District to court over the closure of the local school.

They won.

It's proof that a few determined people can use the tools at their disposal to fight for what they believe in.  They don't need some government-paid consultant, no matter what someone angling for a government job might suggest.  People need only have the courage of their convictions.

Courage.

Convictions.

That's all you need.  That's how democracy works.

Trump and Proto-Trump and babies #nlpoli

Speaking about his popularity and the loyalty of his supporters:

"They say that I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn't lose voters." 

Donald Trump.  Sioux Center, Iowa, January 2016 

And on babies...

Speaking about the popularity of a guy who was once the opening act on a triple bill with Donald Trump and Rudy Gulliani,  Craig Welsh once said this of Danny Williams:

And what I mean by "he can get away with doing it" is that the premier's popularity is such that he could strangle a baby in the middle of the Avalon Mall parking lot with the assembled provincial media in attendance and there would be people that would say the baby had it coming.

-srbp-

Gandhi, Mandela, and a guy in a chicken suit #nlpoli

If the provincial New Democrats had sent a garden gnome around the province, odds are that the photos he'd have brought back would be more interesting than the stuff Earle McCurdy is posting from his wanderings around the province this summer.

This is a picture Earle tweeted on Monday from a coffee shop in Gander.  Admittedly, it has been a few years since your humble e-scribbler has visited Suburbia-in-the-Woods, but recent news reports suggest that there is a sizeable population of folks still there.

Well, enough at least that a fellow of the political stature of Chainsaw Earle might possibly manage to draw enough of an audience on his own account as to populate a decent size photo.  And certainly enough if the local squad of New Democratic Party zealots got all together in one spot, they might be able to pass themselves off as  something resembling a handful, if not a bunch.

But one person?

That's just embarrassing.

CF(L)Co v. Hydro-Quebec (Court of Appeal) #nlpoli

The full text of the Quebec Court of Appeal decision in Churchill Falls (Labrador) Corporation v. Hydro-Quebec:  pdf

Sucks to be you Update:  Did CBC NL suck back this tweet linking to their story on the Churchill Falls decision:

-srbp-

Continuing continuity #nlpoli

In the face of thousands of well-informed people telling Dwight Ball that the provincial government must change direction to survive, in the face of mountains of evidence that the province has been on the wrong course since 2005 or so, and lately, in the face of dire warnings from the folks who advise others about the value of the government's bonds,  Dwight Ball will continue to do what everyone knows doesn't work.

The provincial government is abandoning its economic plans, as the Telegram's James McLeod would have it last Friday.

Well, not really.

The Unhappy Gang #nlpoli

The provincial cabinet ended a "retreat" at The Rooms by holding a news conference on Thursday using as a backdrop posters commemorating the slaughter of the Newfoundland regiment at Beaumont Hamel a century ago.

Not exactly the kind of image you want to have but at least it fit with a new poll from MQO that shows the Liberals are now in third place behind the provincial New Democrats with the Conservatives on top.

You can see the party choice numbers in the table, below.  April and July are MQO.  May is Corporate Research Associates.  Compare the MQO numbers:  the Conservatives have grown eight points since April and are now in first place.  The Liberals have dropped five points and are in third place.

Reforming the courts #nlpoli

The numbers in Tuesday's post showed all the time spent in the court in each seat,  totalled up for the month, averaged,  then divided by seven to give an estimate of full-days the courts in the province actually sit.

Judges do other work besides sitting in their courts.  But you really have to wonder if the courts are as overtaxed as some would have it when you have so many of the judges spending as little as three days or even six days a month, in total, actually sitting in court hearing evidence or motions or what have you.

The truth is the Provincial Courts  are not burdened at all. According to people familiar with the operations of the courts, about 85% of the charges laid in Provincial Court never go to trial.  There are either plea deals or the charges are withdrawn.