The projections, the polls and the political reporters

The political reporters

A panel of CBC reporters gave some interesting insights on a province-wide Morning Show this morning into the final days of the campaign and what may occur on Tuesday.

In particular, it was interesting to hear provincial affairs reporter David Cochrane's reporting of comments with the Progressive Conservative campaign on possible seat outcomes ranging from 38-39 seats for the ruling party to as many as 44. The Tories have been rightly trying to dampen sweep expectations since they know the whiff of overwhelming success doesn't give their own supporters motivation to turn out at the polls and may increase the motivation of others to vote.

Unfortunately, that also smacks into a problem with the core Danny Williams message for the past year or more, namely that he needs a strong mandate - read as many seats as humanly possible - in order to carry forward. The two things comes together nicely in the major Tory message of the past week and exemplified in the only new Progressive Conservative advertising released during that time. A radio spot, likely airing only in areas where the Tories are concerned to pull out votes, has Danny Williams stating emphatically that "we need a strong mandate."

Tory callers to open line radio shows have echoed Williams' messages of the need for political parties to earn a vote and one caller went so far as to express concern that voters may vote for a strong opposition - as opposed to a strong mandate for her favourite - to the extent that there might be a change in government. The chances of a Bob Rae surprise as in the Ontario 1990 election is remote but it may be revealing to see a staunch Tory supporter expressing that concern.

The projections and the polls

One of the few people talking openly of a potential sweep has been Don Mills of Corporate Research Associates (CRA). Mills' quarterly polling has fueled the opinion that Williams enjoys overwhelming popular support across the province. He's refined his seat projections in recent days, not based on polling research mind you but by gleaning some information from media reports. Mills now projects the Tories will win 43 or 44 seats.

bear in mind that, at best, Mills' numbers are simply a brute estimate of popular vote. They lack the necessary subtly of a properly constructed political poll that would allow someone to draw informed inferences. Indeed given that some of the more useful questions have tended to be the property of specific clients - like the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador - Mills' comments on issues such as voter satisfaction have sometimes proven to be misleading since his own research is inadequate. He can't or won't disclose client data, even though he knows what the results are and even where the results give a deeper and more detailed picture than the one painted by the three simple questions Mills discusses publicly.

Just to illustrate the extent to which Mill's number support a variety of potential outcomes in this election, remember that Mills is predicting a sweep or near sweep. His figure would give 91% of the seats in the legislature.

Let's look at the unadjusted CRA poll results and see what they tell us, potentially. By that, we mean we will look at what appears to be the raw percentages of the survey instead of the percentage of decided voters Mills uses.

Using that approach, what we see over the past year is a range of potential popular support for the Tories ranging from 53.2% in November 2006 to 62% in the most recent poll result.

Put that in perspective by looking at popular vote numbers during elections in Newfoundland and Labrador since Confederation. In the 1996 general election, the Liberals took 71% of the seats with 54.9% of the popular vote. In 1982, Brian Peckford won 85% of the seats in the legislature with 61% of the popular vote. Those are two of the largest majorities since the mid-1970s when the voting system changed away from having several candidates elected in a single district. In 2003, Danny Williams' Progressive Conservatives garnered 58.5% of the popular vote and won 34 seats, 77% of the legislature.

Eighty-five percent of the seats in the current legislature is 37 seats. Seventy-one percent would yield 31 seats. Even allowing for demographic changes within the province, including outmigration and internal migration, it seems highly unlikely that popular vote numbers in the historic ranges for an incumbent party would yield an increase in seats of seven to 30% more than the historic seats numbers from a given share of popular vote.

Winners and losers

Based on the apparent popular vote numbers from CRA and historic data, it would be reasonable to expect the Progressive Conservatives to be elected with a seat total upwards of 40. That's pretty much in the range expected in the so-called realistic projection some Tories mentioned by Cochrane said was their likely outcome.

By the same reckoning, Don Mills' seat count of 43 to 44 seats would be highly unlikely.

There are a number of factors that might influence the final outcome and, as with the publicly available polling, this post is as much an exercise in speculation as anything else. However, some things that can be said or issues to watch:

1. The Tories will likely win a second majority. An Ontario surprise would take something coming that no one has foreseen. That said, every seat below 40 undermines the "strong mandate" argument.
2. Labrador appears poised to go entirely for Liberals or New Democrats.
3. John Hickey's defeat in Labrador would be a major blow. Even if the Tories pick up Torngat Mountains, the loss of a cabinet minister from central Labrador is a significant setback for the incumbent administration's plans for Labrador development.
4. Potential big loser: CRA. Every seat below 44 for the Tories undermines CRA's rep. Ditto the bigger the gap between the vote results and CRA's last poll.
5. Will it have loopholes like the lobbyist legislation? Promised whistle-blower protection seems like a last minute effort to counteract a rep even Mark Critch could nail from Halifax. The lobbyist registration act from the first Williams administration has so many holes in it you can drive a fleet of cable truck's through it. Expect whistle-blower legislation that in effect makes to easier to identify and then fire the troublemakers.
6. Seats to watch:

- St. John's West and Conception Bay South. Strong candidates running against incumbents. Even if there isn't an upset in one of these seats, a strong showing by the Liberals will change the interpretation of St. John's as Tory country.

- Burin-Placentia West. The NDP seem to be running a strong campaign there, dropping the former national party leader in over the weekend.

- Labrador's four: How the four seats go will indicate a major political rift to be managed over the next four years, and possibly beyond.

- Isles of Notre Dame and Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi. The Tories are working to unseat the opposition party leaders. let's see if they can do it.

- Straits and White Bay North. Is anything going on with Trevor Taylor or are the hints of some local push-back just unsubstantiated rumour?

- Bay of Islands. Eddie Joyce is to Danny as Lynn Verge was to Clyde. Let's see if Ed can withstand the onslaught of the premier in the district on the last day of the campaign on top of the small-town petty politics that has been worked with the city council and chamber of commerce in Corner Brook.

Frozen space turds

This segment of a talk by Colonel Chris Hadfield covers the simple issue of how astronauts handle human waste in space.

You'll never look to the heavens again with the same sense of awe.

well, at least not without safety glasses.

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A Bond Papers freebie

I knew Gerry and da boys were hard up, Trevor, but it's pretty bad when I gotta do the Liberal advance job just so I can kick the crap out of 'em on Tuesday.

The first 'Fun with Pictures' entry

The idea has been out there for a week.  We've had a hard time picking through the flood of responses but here's one that is surely going to be a top contender for the winning prize.

To avoid any repercussions to contest entrants, we'll be keeping their identities a secret, but to maximize your laughter, we'll be sharing the entrants creativity.

You can almost hear the guy saying telling Lorraine that the tyke's first words were "quite fwankwy".

Apparently he crawls, but only on a go forward basis.

Pretty soon he'll be shedding the pampers and doing his business on a go potty basis.

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The past in our present, once again

Finance minister Tom Marshall today raised the spectre of 1933 and the collapse of Responsible Government in Newfoundland. He did so in the context of launching an attack on Liberal leader Gerry Reid based on Reid's comments in Labrador which Marshall took out of context. Marshall said the context was irrelevant, just saying the word bankruptcy was bad.

Marshall raises an interesting point for anyone looking at this campaign and wondering whether or not to vote, let alone decide which candidate to vote for. If the Telelink/NTV poll is any indication, that could be upwards of half the electorate.

The incumbent Tories make much of the supposedly poor financial state of the province in 2003. it was largely a fiction, as much as Marshall's claim that there was $305 million in the current budget from the 2005 offshore deal. That little myth has already been disposed of. There is no money in the budget from the 2005 deal; there is merely a set of numbers put on the paper to show the draw down on the cash advance. But this money has already been spent. it does not exist as new cash this year.

So what would it take to bankrupt the province? Let's take a look at two examples from the province's history when financial circumstances were indeed tight.

The 1933 Debacle

- $100 million in debt.

- $30 million in government revenue.

- $35 million gross domestic product.

- $3.5 million government budget shortfall.

A decade of political instability characterized as much as anything else by a remarkably familiar style of politics:

"Rival politicians … in the desire to secure election, were accustomed to make the wildest promises involving increased public expenditure in the constituency and the satisfaction of all the cherished desires of the inhabitants. The latter, as was natural, chose the candidate who promised them the most.

“…the electors in many cases preferred to vote for a candidate who was known to possess an aptitude for promoting his own interest at the public expense rather than for a man who disdained to adopt such a course.

“They argued that, if a man had proved himself capable of using his political opportunities to his personal advantage, he would be the better equipped to promote the advantage of his constituents; an honest man would only preach to them.”

Not a single provincial party in the current election is speaking of debt reduction. Rather there is talk of spending increases and, where anyone whispers the word, debt management. That is code for rolling over debt at cheaper interest rates or, as Danny Williams has said, actually borrowing more money on top of the $485 million in additional debt the government has incurred since 2003.

In 1933, the government debt was three times the size of the provincial economic output. The total government budget was slightly less than the economic output and the annual budget was short by $3.5 million or $10 percent of its total.

That was the state of the place when the legislature voted to accept an appoint commission government.

Using figures in Budget 2007, it would be virtually impossible to repeat that scenario in the current context even if every government for the next decade was completely insane. Canadian fiscal transfers would forestall bankruptcy or anything as dramatic as the 1933 situation and most likely action would be taken long before the provincial government put itself into the 1933 state again.

Just to put it in perspective consider that in order to come close to the 1933 mess, the provincial debt, on an accrual basis would have to reach upwards of $70 billion compared to the $11-12 billion currently. The annual provincial budget would have to reach spending of almost $20 billion annually, compared to the $22 billion current gross domestic product (approximate, using current dollars). The annual shortfall would have to be on the order of about $1.5 billion to $2.0 billion.

The early 1990s

- Provincial debt approaching $8.0 billion on an accrual basis, significant amounts held in high-priced foreign currencies.

- Provincial GDP of slightly more than $8.0 billion.

- Low oil prices. (US$8 in 1992 compared with forecasts of a decade earlier that oil would be well over $40 and may reach as high as $100)

- Low mineral prices (mineral prices are cyclical and are currently high)

- Declining fishery (followed by cod moratorium)

- Low Canadian dollar.

- Government spending on current account of $3.5 billion (approx.) with annual declines in revenue due to economic circumstances.

To match that situation, the provincial debt would have to reach the better part of $22 billion compared to the current $11-$12 billion. Government spending would run at about $9.0 to $10 billion, assuming that current account spending was about 43.75% of GDP and the annual deficit would be about $1.0 billion.

That situation is not as extreme as the 1933 scenario by any stretch. Mineral prices are cyclical and will likely drop in the next decade and remain low for a period. Likewise, and based on recent experience, oil prices may not continue at their current high levels. As for the fishery, its future economic performance is not guaranteed either, especially in light of global competition and declining resource in some sectors.

If we allow for energy corporation debt on existing projects of about $500 million (acquisition plus development costs, before revenue flows )and a Lower Churchill project of approximately $5.0 billion, the current provincial debt would reach about $17 billion.

As an aside, the Lower Churchill project website has now been taken over by NL Hydro. As a result background documents on the consultation process have vanished to dead links. Those dead links contained project cost estimates.

Taken altogether, the prospect of imminent bankruptcy for the province is remote. Even allowing for added debt over the next decade coupled with an economic downturn, it would almost impossible to conceive of a realistic scenario in which the 1933 situation recurred.

The situation in the early 1990s is not quite so remote but it would still take a concerted effort to undo the economic progress of the last 15 years.

The cost of developing the Lower Churchill and offshore projects would not decline significantly in the event of an economic downturn, for example, but resulting revenues would. As such it is possible to develop scenarios in which the provincial debt climbed to levels significantly above their current one, while at the same time, the size of the economy and resulting government revenues did not increase as dramatically or even declined.

Consider that Budget 2007 forecasts a decline in the provincial gross domestic product over the next three years while at the same time forecasting increases in government spending on the order of over nine percent in the same time frame.

This is a very rough comparison of two historic incidents with the current situation. No matter how one looks at it, the prospect of the province becoming bankrupt within the next decade is remote.

That's part of what makes Tom Marshall's comments odd. After all, if the provincial economy and government finances are so fragile that a mere $100 million of spending annually over a decade would break the treasury, his comments only raise questions about his own plans to borrow and spend considerably more than that in the same time frame.

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Federal election in early December?

There are signs.

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One to watch

They may have a small budget but the NDP campaign is innovative.

The NDP will be worth watching to see how effective it is.

One thing for sure: they have the best radio spots so far, bar none. Unfortunately, there's no link to the audio at time of writing. As one comes available, we'll supply it.

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Fun with pictures, more fodder

From the PC party campaign website. 

Remember, photoshop if ya want, but these seem to be more likely candidates for witty captions.

 

Fun with pictures, some more

Here's a better Lorraine Michael picture to use. From the NDP campaign website. Keep the entries coming. There's nothing to win but recognition for your bizarre sense of humour.

Remember: Just photoshop if you want to, or preferably just give us a caption. And keep it within the bounds of taste.

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Dicks apologizes, promises to repay

Paul Dicks, the man whose expenses caught the attention of former Auditor General Beth Marshall seven years ago, today apologized for what he described as lapses in judgment.  Dicks promised to repay the taxpayer for expenses claimed for wine and art purchases.

For her part, Marshall turned a blind eye to hundreds of thousands in inappropriate spending in her pursuit of Dicks.

In a recent interview, Marshall said she found nothing inappropriate in members of the legislature handing out public money as gifts to constituents and donations to groups and individuals who were never publicly identified.

Marshall's successor found that the gifts and donations often duplicated existing government department programs, although the money handed out through the House of Assembly was entirely at the discretion of the politician involved.

Elected in 2003, Marshall handed out 34% of her constituency allowance as gifts and donations.  The allowance was intended to cover other things, instead, although members of the legislature routinely spent the money in a manner Marshall's successor and a public inquiry deemed inappropriate.

This allowance is for the payment of expenditures incurred in the performance of constituency business and may cover such items as office rental, equipment, supplies, secretarial and other support services, information material such as newspapers, advertising, purchase of flags, pins, etc..

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The Top Five most irresponsible comments uttered by a political leader in Newfoundland and Labrador

It'll take a while to dig into the files for some of the geriatric whoppers in local political history, but the past four years have been replete with irresponsible  - in some cases downright frightening - political comments from at least one political leader in the province:

1.  The hands down winner: Taking away free speech in the House of Assembly.  Joe Smallwood may have brought in the anti-IWA legislation but not a single political leader in Newfoundland and Labrador history ever said it would a good idea to stamp out free speech in the legislature.

2.  Close second: The threats to sue people exercising their right of free speech, a threat that included falsely attributing motives to the people he threatened.

3.  Par for the course:  Repeated, unfounded personal attacks, all of which the leader in question had to withdraw.

4.  This mill will not close on my watch. A quote so much ingrained now that people don't even need a reference to it. And before someone leaps in here, let's recall it is fundamentally irresponsible to make a commitment you just can't guarantee you'll be able to keep.  Like saying no more secret deals and no more give-aways. oh wait.  Those last two are within a leader's power to keep.

5.  Labrador:  the minute land.  Rationalizing why he left his lone backbencher from Labrador out of his first cabinet, the man who set the new standard for irresponsible political commentary said this whopper:

"You can't have it both ways," he said. "If you're going to cut the cabinet back then obviously certain portions of the province, minute portions of the province, can be left out." — Danny Williams, Canadian Press, November 7, 2003

There's a reason the Tories like to keep erasing their online record.

And why some people regularly archive the utterances.

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Told ya

Weather forecasting in Gander.

Big political issue a couple of years ago.

Bond questioned the motivation of the people behind it.

Turns out we were right:  it was about pork.

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The advance polls

The top 15 districts in the advance poll, shown as a percentage of eligible voters who turned out in each district.

 

District	Percent advance (07)	Percent advance (03)
Signal Hill – Quidi Vidi	4.9%	2.5%
Carbonear – Harbour Grace	4.0%	7.2%
Port de Grave	3.3%	4.7%
Exploits	3.3%	2.7%
Lake Melville	3.2%	2.7%
Humber Valley	3.2%	4.1%
St. John’s East	3.2%	2.5%
Torngat Mountains	2.9%	2.6%
St. John’s West	2.9%	3.6%
St. John’s South	2.8%	2.3%
Gander	2.7%	3.6%
Topsail	2.7%	2.9%
Cartwright – L’Anse au Clair	2.7%	2.1%
Labrador West	2.7%	2.8%
Mount Pearl North	2.6%	2.9%

What does it mean?

Well, your guess is as good as any.

One thing seems obvious, though and that is that the special ballot process likely hasn't replaced the advance poll turn-out.

Special ballots existed in 2003 and all parties used them aggressively. The advance poll turn out in this election was down 31% from the last time.

That actually reverses dramatically the trend from the previous two elections, in 1999 and 2003, where the advance poll turn out climbed each time.

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The smell of desperation

Danny Williams came within a hair of promising a cabinet seat for Patty Pottle if the voters in Torngat Mountains would elect her as the MHA.

That's about as pathetic a gamble as it gets; there really is no other word for it.

Normally, that sort of thing is the hint dropped by desperate candidates trying to hang on to a seat. Normally, when a candidate resorts to spreading that rumour - always denied by the Leader for a whole bunch of reasons - it's a sign that all hope has gone.

Now when the party leader who is the Premier starts running around openly promising he'll pretty much surely plunk Patty in a cabinet seat, you can bet two things:

1. He's reasonably sure his current Labrador cabinet minister is toast.

2. he's desperate to have a seat on the mainland that he is prepared to promise anything to get it.

Might be a clue to voters everywhere.

If you want Danny Williams' attention: elect an Opposition MHA.

But seriously, it is long since past due for political reporters to stop spreading the campaign executive jet spin.

Wipe the Kool-Aid from your lips. brush the salmon flecks and cheesecake crumbs from your lapels.

Put the Premier's run through Labrador in perspective. It isn't about taking seats away from anyone.

It's all about desperately avoiding losing the two seats in Labrador the Premier's already got.

The run is Torngat is actually beyond desperate.

It's pathetic.

As pathetic as another Premier from another party running around claiming that Kilbride and Ferryland were going red.

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Mark Critch: deadly

Mark Critch's two-minute send up of Danny Williams will either:

1. Make lots of people laugh;

2. Incite some loons to follow a fatwah against Critch who will now be regarded as a traitor and heretic; or,

3. 1 + 2.

Audio available courtesy of the CBC campaign blog.

Video available at the 22 minutes site.

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Campaign fun

Simple enough.

Take the pictures below, and/or add a funny caption.

Photoshop them (within the bounds of good taste), e-mail your submission to bondpapers at hotmail dot com and we'll post them.

"On a go forward basic, quite frankly, I'll be working to get the partridgeberry muffin back on the menu at every Tim Horton's in the Federation."

"Now when I blink my eyes, the election will be over and the Liberals will be back in government. It's a trick I learned from Jeannie."

"I did kick his butt, didn't I?"

[Photos; shamelessly taken from the CBC campaign blog, Campaign Trail]

The Galahad List

Of all the MHAs who served in the House of Assembly after 1989, only six - that's right, a mere 6 - fell into the category of having made no donations, submitted no double-bills, bought no booze outside of meals, and made no personal purchases on public funds. There were others who had negligible amounts of donations or double-billings, but the following six stand out for their relative purity.

Their chastity - the other distinguishing virtue of Sir Galahad - is a matter on which we offer no opinion.

For the record, the six are (alphabetically) :

Charlie Brett

Felix Collins

Shannie Duff

Rex Gibbons

Barry Hynes

Ed Roberts

Two of the six are running in the current general election (indicated in bold).

Should be interesting given that Gibbon's Progressive Conservative opponent made another list from the AG's report.

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Leader's Tour Logic: update

Grit leader Gerry Reid is heading along the province's south coast in an effort to shore up support in two districts currently held by the Liberals.

Meanwhile, Danny Williams is headed back to Labrador for a whirlwind through all four districts. This is the second trip to Labrador. The Tory incumbents need shoring up in western and central Labrador and there is a race in Torngat Mountains.

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A few questions that likely won't get answered

Political party election platforms have become less about a firm set of commitments as about a set of general ideas that might be implemented, depending on what happens.  In some cases, they are just window dressing.

Working from the premise that platforms actually mean something, there are a few interesting bits of the progressive Conservative platform that are worth pondering:

1.  If the commitment is based on a false premise do you still mean it? 

demand that the Government of Canada situate more federal offices and jobs in Newfoundland and Labrador, which has fewer per capita than any other province

Newfoundland and Labrador actually has more jobs per capita than all but three provinces.

2. And what about the National War Memorial between Water and Duckworth Streets?

work with the Royal Canadian Legion and military families to establish an appropriate memorial in Newfoundland and Labrador to honour our soldiers who have served and sacrificed their lives in the Afghanistan mission

3. So are you saying the provincial government doesn't manage our collective wealth now?

put in place a plan to enable Newfoundland and Labrador to develop the capacity to manage our own wealth within a decade, in coordination with Memorial University, College of the North Atlantic and the Newfoundland and Labrador investment management community

Just what the heck does this mean? 

4.  So what happened to a debt reduction strategy, in light of four years of debt growth?

further develop our debt management strategy to continue to eliminate the debt and refinance existing debt with competitive rates

5.  But is there an amalgamation strategy?

maintain the commitment that there will be no forced amalgamation of municipalities but continue to work with municipalities on initiatives to share services regionally

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More fun with signs

Yes, there's been plenty of fun with campaign signs.

Some people have been tearing them down.  That's the sport in Mount Pearl. Others have been pointing out the missing bits on some, like Beth Marshall's lack of a Team Danny mention. Turns out those were recycled signs from the last campaign, just like the Tom Osborne "member" ones.

Well, here's brand spanking new sign, complete with the strong, proud, determined graphic that is missing any reference to Team Danny as well.

Of course, it would be hard to get it in there, what with all the references to the glorious things John Hickey has done for Lake Melville in just four short years.

But surely, they could have found a spot to poke in the graphic showing that  Hickey is a proud member of the Danny Williams Team.

On another level entirely though look at it this way:

Hickey is focusing on the cash flowing to his district,  in the fine old tradition of local politics in this province.

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Hilary and Janice and Danny

Hilary Clinton wants to give every child born in America $5,000.

Danny Williams thinks this is proof he is on the right track with his $1,000 bootie call.

She isn't and therefore, he isn't.

The $5,000 Hilary is talking about is actually part of a larger Democratic Party initiative aimed at health care reform and promoting education.

It is not intended - as the Bootie Call clearly is - as an incentive to parents to crank out more offspring.

The Democratic Party initiative very clearly establishes that the money will be placed in a trust and will be accessible for two specific purposes:  college tuition or buying a first home.

It is not intended - as the Bootie Call clearly is - as an incentive to parents to crank out more children.

How bad an idea is the Bootie call?  Well, consider that most men and women in the province have already dismissed the idea based on two simple premises:

1.  It doesn't even begin to cover the costs of raising a child, including education costs; and,

2.  Everywhere it has been tried it has turned out to be hugely expensive and at the same time hugely  ineffective in increasing the birth rate.

The Bootie Call is such a bad idea that even columnist Janice Wells had to morph the whole thing into a discussion of the virtues of cloth diapers before she could make it into something vaguely workable.

This is no mean feat.  Wells is a former Tory candidate and has been known to monger a few nationalist myths in her time of public comment especially since Williams was sworn in as Premier.  For her to cast some doubts on the idea is pretty significant, even if she has to go through a few tortures to salvage the concept.

All of this leads inevitably back to the starting point of the Bootie Call discussion and the admission Danny Williams made the day he announced the concept:  it hasn`t been thought through.  That`s painfully evident and it grows more painfully obvious when Williams himself and his supporters - like Janice Wells - have to invent reasons to give it some consideration.

If Danny and Janice really want to do something for our future generations, maybe they wouldn`t be trying to come up with lame ex post facto rationalizations for someone`s brain farts.

They`d be doing the planning Williams likes to talk about in his campaign ads. Then they`d turn the plans into action to deal with things like the growing debt load our children will face, a debt load that is likely to made worse by the inevitably burgeoning cost of the Bootie Call.

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The Open Cheque-book Government

Danny Williams recently accused Gerry Reid of planning an open cheque-book government.

For the record, here is the public sector debt since 2003, as contained in the provincial estimates for 2007.

Table 1: Public Sector Debt FY 2003 - FY 2007(f)

Source: Dept of Finance, Budget 2007, millions of CDN$

	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007f
Direct	6692.7	6581.5	7244.0	7069.5	7306.5
Crown	2404.1	2885.8	2657.4	2660.4	2666.9
Total*	8007.1	8345.2	8644.4	8355.6	8496.4

* Total is Direct and Crown debt, less sinking funds

Since 2003, the total public debt has increased by $489.3 million. Direct debt increased by $612.9 million. This continued the trend for the previous four years.

In the same time, the provincial governments net expenditure (capital and current) rose by 35% ($1.307 billion) from $3.674 billion to $4.981 billion.

Gross expenditure (capital and current) rose 30% from $4.261 billion in FY 2003 to $5.560 billion in FY 2007.

This is significantly beyond the annual rate of inflation for the province, which averaged 2.275% between 2003 and 2006.

At a speaking engagement in Corner Brook:

Williams ridiculed Reid’s business sense, comparing his understanding of the oil industry to the popular U.S. TV show, “The Beverly Hillbillies.”

“This is not Jed Clampett, Gerry. This is big business.”

Funny thing about that attempted slur is that Jed Clampett was actually a wily, sensible and conservative gentleman.

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What did Frank Moores call it?

From the front page of the Saturday Telegram, not available online but brought to you courtesy of the 10,000 monkeys that are kept chained to their IBM Selectrics banging away at transcribing stuff, a tale of the continued practice of having government members of the legislature handing out cheques for public money.

According to the Auditor General's report, Sheila Osborne was in the Top Ten public money givers, as a percentage of allowance. Osborne came in at eighth place, with 26% of her allowance as gifts. Osborne's son Tom - the province's justice minister - came in ahead of his mom, in sixth place. Tom's uncle, Bob Ridgley - Sheila's brother - came in fourth, handing out more than 38% of his constituency allowance as gifts.

As reported here earlier, the Tories have managed to find a way of doling out public money even though Chief Justice Green condemned the practice in no uncertain terms.

Tory MHAs delivering cheques for government

Handover of money appears to conflict with Green Report

Rob Antle; Terry Roberts

Two Tory MHAs recently delivered cheques to good causes on behalf of the government, months after the release of the Green Report recommended against the practice.

Chief Justice Derek Green concluded that MHAs "should be prohibited from making donations and other gratuitous payments to or on behalf of individuals, charities, community groups or agencies using their constituency allowance or other public money."

Those provisions of the Green Report were quietly delayed by the legislature until after the Oct. 9 election, although the governing Conservatives pledged to immediately abide by Green's recommendations.

In early September, St. John's West MHA Sheila Osborne personally delivered two $500 cheques to the principal of St. Matthew's elementary school in Cowan Heights.

She said the cheques came from two provincial government departments - Education, and Tourism, Culture and Recreation.

Osborne said the first $500 cheque came from a recreational grant program she has accessed in the past.

Tourism, Culture and Recreation officials confirmed the program is available to every district in the province, and seeks the input of local MHAs to prioritize spending.

Osborne said the second $500 cheque came about through the initiative of the school principal, who asked the Department of Education for some cash to help fund St. Matthew's "healthy living" campaign.

But instead of sending the money to the school, education officials sent it to Osborne, the MHA said.

The cheques came in around mid-July. She delivered them to the principal in early September, after classes had resumed for the year.

Asked whether that's allowed under the Green Report's recommendations, Osborne said, "Gosh, I don't know. It came over to my office for me to bring up, and I just brought it up and passed it in. There was no fanfare or anything."

She said she had "no idea" why the department would send her the cheque, instead of forwarding it directly to the school.

Education Minister Joan Burke said late Friday it's not unusual for the department to send such grants to schools through the MHA, when the member has been involved in the process.

Earlier this summer, Tory Exploits MHA Clayton Forsey turned over a $500 cheque to a Bay D'Espoir cancer benefit concert on behalf of the provincial Health Department.

Bay D'Espoir is in the district of Fortune Bay-Cape La Hune, represented by a Liberal.

Questioned about the matter last month by The Telegram, Forsey said he was asked to make the donation on behalf of Health Minister Ross Wiseman. But unlike Osborne, Forsey made the donation at a public event.

The Coaster, the community newspaper serving the Coast of Bays region, initially reported Forsey made the donation on behalf of Premier Danny Williams. A week later, the paper ran a correction. Forsey acknowledged he requested the clarification.

At the time, a Health official said it's not unusual for the department to make donations to such causes, and said it's also common for the minister or a government MHA to pass over the money.

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The past in our present

One of the great services done by John Gushue in this election is the CBC election website and its connection to resources on past elections.

Take, for example, a 16 minute national CBC documentary on the 1971 election, the one that marked the beginning of the end of the Smallwood reign.

You'll see a style of campaigning long gone, in which politicians like Joey Smallwood [note the preference for the diminutive of his first name], Frank Moores and John Crosbie delivered political speeches to large crowds without benefit of notes. They spoke extemporaneously and eloquently, an ability lacking in far too many politicians - let alone party leaders - these days.

You'll see a very young Jim Walsh, the New Democratic Party candidate in Humber West.

You'll see an incumbent premier dismiss Labrador issues as nothing more than crass opportunism on the part of Labrador Party leader Tom Burgess. You'll see Burgess - eloquent and extemporaneous - telling an audience in Labrador West that the mines in that part of the province had contributed 25% of the provincial government's revenues. The part not aired included telling the audeince that not much of that wealth had been returned to Labrador.

You'll hear Frank Moores talking about government party candidates handing out cheques from government funds in their districts - Moores calls it a slush fund - and the orgy of road paving. Moores attributes it to a lack of planning and a mere desire of the party to be re-elected.

How times change.

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No Viagra needed

At last a picture of the infamous sign identified by the grammar police.

The other campaign

One of the things to watch in this provincial election has been the media campaign, from the Tories low-key one to the Liberals' barely existent one. The new Democrats are somewhere in between, if that's possible.

There are the party websites, all of which represent the very best of Web 1.0 in a Web 2.0 world.

Even the Tory site, which is by far the best of the three party sites, is missing the sort of things that have become commonplace in political campaigns. Stuff like syndication feeds to allow people easily to access information from news releases. There's no campaign blog and even the whole layout is not designed to include people and invite them to participate. Rather, the party websites are simply devices for sending messages, not receiving them.

None of the political parties are using new media at all. No podcasting, let alone vidcasting.

There'll be more on this over weekend at Bond and Persuasion Business.

For now, let's turn attention to the unofficial contributions to the campaign, the stuff being put out by ordinary people.

There are bulletin boards on the Internet. There's good old nf.general, the newsgroup that seems to be decidedly uninterested in the campaign.

And there's youtube. Undisputed King or Queen of the genre in I.P.Freely. Sheer volume of output alone this year has dwarfed anything put out by the candidates. One of the original vids has had nearly 10,000 views since it emerged during the winter by-elections. A more recent vid on the campaign in Central Labrador has pulled almost 1,000 views in less than a week. [Hint for the professors out there: broadband access has nothing to do with it anymore than broadcasting does.]

Then there's one that cropped up in the Bond e-mail just this evening. It picks up on the raging political battle in Labrador and on something that the Tory campaign missed. Your humble e-scribbler, unrepentant townie that he is - the title townie bastard is already claimed - missed it completely as well.

In one of the streeters on the Tory website, at least two of the people refer to fighting for "Newfoundland". The first guy seems to be standing in front of the library at Memorial. There's an abrupt edit at the end of the word "Newfoundland' in the original, but that may mean nothing at all.

The second one is impossible to situate, but the phrase "Newfoundland" is unmistakable, as opposed to "Newfoundland and Labrador" or "NewfoundlandLabrador" as the province has become over at Voice of the Cabinet Minister.

The name of the province is a sensitive issue in Labrador.

Very sensitive.

Just how sensitive?

Well, the answer to that is in the intensity of the battles raging in the seats in Labrador, including the one held by cabinet minister John Hickey. He's the guy under attack in the 1,000-views video.

Campaign Notes: End of Week 2

1. Contrast in travel. From the Friday Telegram.

In an out-of-the-way hangar at St. John's airport, a handful of journalists are sitting comfortably in overstuffed leather chairs, gazing into their laptops or staring wide-eyed at the day's travel itinerary.
There's coffee, tea and an assortment of breakfast snacks.

And judging by the decor, this place is accustomed to well-heeled visitors.

Parked less than 10 metres away is a sleek private jet valued at about $2 million. Its two pilots wait patiently for their VIP passenger - Premier Danny Williams - and his entourage.

Then there's the Liberal bus-bound travel and the NDP's minivan.

2. Heard that one before, sorta. From Danny Williams in Marystown:

"My goal is to get the husbands and the fathers and the sons and the daughters and the mothers who have gone away to work, gone away to Alberta, gone across this country and get 'em back home," Williams told the crowd.

When Clyde Wells uttered the famous "every mother's son" line in Cox's Cove in 1989, he was talking about creating an economy and society where people could make a choice to live in Newfoundland and Labrador or pursue their own goals wherever they wanted. There's a big difference between individual choice and getting people back just because it fits some other imperative. Like say the demeaning "homing pigeon" nonsense Danny Williams likes to spout.

3. The Ghosts of Peckford. Interesting to see Peckford-era cabinet ministers Glenn Tobin (Social Services, Government Services) and Bob Aylward (Rural, Agricultural and Northern Development, Forest Resources and finally Municipal Affairs) advancing for Danny Williams at a rally in Marystown.

Tobin represented Burin-Placentia West from 1982 to 1996. He's currently the chair of the provincial government's liquor corporation.

Aylward represented the district of Kilbride from 1979 to 1993. Most recently he was vice-chair of the electoral boundaries commission.

Eons ago, Tobin was interviewed in a television report on the provincial government's make-work schemes. These would let people work on provincially funded projects long enough to qualify for federal unemployment insurance benefits. The whole policy was known as Lotto 10-42, a play on a popular gambling game combined with the formula that 10 weeks of make-work earned 42 weeks of federal benefits. The interview lurks in the archives at CBC most likely, but the one part that stuck with your humble e-scribbler all these years was pretty simple: Tobin denied there was such a policy. But if there was, he said, it wouldn't matter since oil would be flowing shortly and all would be fine.

4. Curiouser and curiouser. labradore, noticed something very interesting from Danny Williams speech in Corner Brook this week. The Tory campaign song was apparently written in 2004, or as Williams described it, just after the offshore deal victory. Problem: the deal came in 2005. Maybe there was a reason why Danny Williams didn't want to release poll results from his first 18 months in office. Makes you wonder what was in the polls, though, since they were eventually released to the Telegram but the Telly did nothing with them. Maybe the Telly missed something, aside from the research on adopting the green, white and pink native flag as the new provincial emblem. Maybe there was something curious in there after all, like discovering how much of a disaster the flag flap was, as revealed by the Premier's own polling.

5. You'll get the files, manana. The Indy is reporting this weekend that Diane Whelan promised to release details of her constituency allowance spending, particularly the donations. You may recall that, of the 115 legislators subjected to a review by the Auditor General, Whelan handed out the largest percentage of her allowance as cash gifts. The day after saying she'd cough up the details, Whelan told the Indy she'd dig the information out. But we'd have to wait until after the election to see where the money went. The story might be online next week.

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First poll results

NTV/Telelink released the first public opinion poll of the provincial election campaign on Thursday.

The poll of 1583 residents across Newfoundland and Labrador showed some interesting results. Almost half those surveyed (48.7%) gave no answer to the question on which party they would vote for. Of that number, 30.4% were undecided, 14.1% refused to answer and only 4.2% indicated they would not vote.

As reported by NTV, 40.3% intended to vote Progressive Conservative, 7.3% were voting Liberal and 3.6% were voting NDP. Telelink then calculated the responses removing all non-answers and then compares the result to the method used by Corporate Research Associates.

However, this is an odd way of assessing the result. Those who supplied no answer or who indicated they were undecided were not apparently asked follow-up questions to determine any leanings, including whether they might belong in the "will not vote" category. Only 4.2% indicated they would not vote. Therefore, only those who indicated they would not vote should be excluded.

Those adjusted results would be:

n = 1517	n	%
PC	638	42
LIB	116	7.6
NDP	57	3.7
UND	481	31.7
REF	223	14.7

The truly interesting thing about these results is that they potentially show the actual popularity of the current administration versus the poll results using the method of eliminating most of the undecided or no answers.

If you look at the undecideds and those who refused to answer the question, there are actually more people in that pile (46.8%) than are actually openly committed to a governing party that is purported at unprecedented levels of popularity in others polls.

Think about that.

People refuse to answer questions or indicate they are undecided for many reasons. Some have to do with possible perception of the responses, were they to become known. Even though a survey like this one is conducted by telephone, in a small community there may be a concern that confidential information - like voting intentions - will become widely known. A voting intention that goes against the local norm or the perceived local norm mightr be withheld for fear of social repercussions.

But without getting into a range of hypothetical situations, just consider that in a province where the current Premier is supposedly overwhelmingly popular, the undecideds were only 10% less than the decideds giving their voting choice as Progressive Conservative.

Some pollsters and others will use a simple method and allocate the undecideds and refusals in the same way as the decideds. Unfortunately, the statistical arguments used in favour of this approach don't conform with actual experience. In 1999, for example, a poll similar to this one reported undecideds of 30% just before the debate. no more public polls were released but the final tally on voting day suggested that the undecideds broke disproportionately in favour of the opposition Progressive Conservatives under Ed Byrne.

Aside from that, there are a variety of things we don't know about this poll - they aren't reported - that might also affect interpretation of the results. These other details would include the relative percentages of males and females in the final sample, compared to the population and how those segments responded. We also can't account for the relative mix of respondents from the northeast Avalon versus other regions of the province. other demographic would also help to assess the poll results.

What we have here, though, is really just another example of why the media "horse race polls" ultimately don't give those of us outside the political parties any useful information on which to make judgments.

Added to that general reservation must be a question about the interpretation given by NTV in this story. Yes, there is strong Tory support, but the real story - the one with details that begged for better research - is in the undecideds and refuseds.

Maybe local media outlets will start doing better research designs for future elections. They cost a little more but they are so much better for informing audiences.

-srbp-

1. Following is the text of the NTV story, as linked above. Paragraphing has been changed for clarity.

Telelink poll shows strong Tory support, high undecided rate

September 27, 2007

The Progressive Conservatives maintain a large lead halfway through the campaign, although there is still a large undecided vote. That's according to a poll conducted by Telelink and paid for by NTV. On Tuesday and Wednesday, Telelink polled 1,583 residents across the province. Of those, slightly less than half watched Tuesday night’s leaders’ debate. Telelink asked which leader gave the best performance: 40.3% of viewers chose PC Leader Danny Williams, NDP Leader Lorraine Michael came second with 34.4 and only 4.6 chose Liberal Leader Gerry Reid. The rest had no opinion.

The margin of error for that sample was /-3.5 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

Then Telelink asked, "Did the debate influence how you will vote in the election?" 16.1said yes, while 77.8per cent said no.

Finally, Telelink asked respondents how they planned to vote on Election Day: 40.3% said Progressive Conservative, 7.3% said Liberal, and 3.6% cent said NDP.

Among the 48.7% who gave no answer, 30.4 said they were undecided, 14.1 refused to answer, and 4.2 said they will not vote. That was substantially higher than the 24% who were undecided or not voting when Telelink polled voters this time last year. The margin of error for that sample was +/-2.5 percentage points.

However, when the non-answering block is factored out of the results, the numbers are almost identical to the quarterly Corporate Research Associates polls. Among decided voters, 78.6 said they would vote PC, 14.3 would vote Liberal, and 7.1 would vote NDP. The margin of error on that sample is +/-3.4 percentage points.

-30-

2. Related on Bond:

Shaggin' polls

Poll-er magic

Polls and something called a poll

Perils of polls [We asked for the poll report, but nothing ever showed up.]

Another reason why Danny is pissed

Check the answers.com entry on "Daniel Williams".

Yep.

Before you even get to the string of letters after his name, heck before you even get to Danny Williams' entry, you are encouraged to read about Simon Lono first.

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Would the application even be considered?

While none of the political parties have demonstrated any awareness at all of new media in their campaigns (some individuals have), the Tories have a fascinating plank in their platform section on culture:

develop and implement a strategy to support a New Media Industry to allow this province to exploit a media environment that has been transformed by advancements in digital technology and computing, especially in products such as video games, electronic kiosks and podcast

Now right off the bat, the word is podcast-ing so odds are high a few people need to figure out the terminology. Like calling people who write blogs, blog-sters. Like hipsters, no doubt, 23 Skeedoo and all.

Anyway...

Consider too that the gaming and electronic kiosk industry is pretty much yesterday's stuff.

They also aren't really new media, either.

But this podcasting thing is something else, and if there is money for podcasting, Bond is there. Somehow, there just doesn't seem any likelihood that the government's cash is going to fund Bond Cast, no matter how meritorious the project.

Just a feeling.

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Offshore R & D funding: a simple question

Exxon and Murphy are suing the federal government over offshore regulations on research and development related to the offshore.

The new regulations were introduced in 2004 by the offshore regulatory board, which is jointly managed by the federal and provincial governments.

But here's the thing: if the current R & D regulations are considered a violation of NAFTA, shouldn't we wonder what implications that has for the newly minted Hebron deal?

Tha association representing the oil producers made a submission to the energy plan that said:

The Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board (C-NLOPB) recently implemented new research and development (R&D) guidelines which outline the amount of money operators have to spend on R&D over the life of their projects. It is CAPP’s position that the R&D guidelines should not prescribe amounts to be spent on R&D, as this will create a substantial cost burden to Newfoundland and Labrador operators. CAPP continues to work with operators to lobby for modifications to the new R&D requirements.

The only reference to R & D regulations in the energy plan is the one that says the offshore board makes the regulations.

And the Hebron memorandum of understanding sets a fixed amount:

Fixed R & D amount of CAD $120 million over the life of the project, provided such commitment meets the C-NLOPB’s requirements.

Now it is subject to the offshore board requirements, but if the MOU sets a fixed amount ,that amount would likely prevail in the development application approval.

And that's the question:

• Is the fixed amount negotiated for Hebron R & D the same, higher than or lower than existing offshore requirements?*

-srbp-

Update (2012):  The CNLOPB amount would have been much higher than the flat amount demanded by the provincial government.

Public policy by Macleans?

So when exactly did the Progressive Conservative administration start working on the master plan for population explosion?

June, maybe?

Highly unlikely, since the Macleans article linked above makes one thing plain, based on evidence:

Amazingly, the evidence suggests that the most successful policies have one thing in common: they don't try to pay women to procreate. Rather, they facilitate the careers of working mothers. They are premised on the idea that, the more value a society places on women's work inside and outside of the home, the more likely she is to want to contribute meaningfully in both spheres. In other words, take some of the load off of her shoulders and spread it around so that children become everybody's responsibility. Who would have thought that the most economically sound solution to a fertility crisis would be rooted in good old-fashioned feminism?

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Debate quickies

There'll be plenty of Monday morning quarterbacking, but here are some quick comments and links on the provincial party leaders' debate.

1. The CBC and Canadian Press headlines aren't doing the Tory campaign any favours. CBC has Tory leader Danny Williams pleading with voters to trust him. CP has Williams on the defensive over spending scandal. Both stories don't quite match the headlines, though.

2. If you missed the live version, you can catch the tape at cbc.ca/nl.

Update:

3. Bizarre moment of the night: Danny's false accusation aimed at Simon Lono, in the midst of a free-for-all with Gerry Reid. One thing thing to make a false statement. Another thing to take a swipe at the guy who isn't in the room to defend himself. Lono's obviously gotten up the Premier's nose. Giving Lono this kind of attention won't make him go away; in fact, among Lono's potential supporters, the Prem just boosted his street cred.

4. Best opening statement: Danny Williams. All values and on his key themes. from a guy who delivers a speech like he is being tortured, this one shone.

5. Are you now or have you ever... Lorraine Michael fell into Danny Williams' lawyer trap just like she was in discovery or being cross-examined. She scored a big point when she repeatedly picked at Danny over the House management when he was Leader Op.

6. Quote of the Night: "We want to grow the young people of our province." That is pretty much what we do with young people. Grow them. On a go forward basis.

7. Damn you, I.P Freely. The debate bingo card was only for one leader and the most common phrases were missing. If "go forward basis' and "quite frankly" were on my bingo card, I'd have hit the jackpot by 15 minutes in.

8. Torture: Danny Williams and Gerry Reid pounding away and talking over each other.

9. Earning votes: Politicians should earn them. Ask Chief Justice Green. One media commentator suggested this reference by Danny Williams might be a clue that the Tory vote is softening in some areas. Could be. but then again, the comment just fits with Danny Williams' tendency to complain about the poor quality of his opposition. Simple solution: tell Bob Ridgley to withdraw. instant improvement in the opposition (tongue planted firmly in cheek, for all those with no sense of humour)

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Lesson Learned

Ok.

CBC News is attributing Linda Goodyear's comments on double-billing by her Tory incumbent opponent to a typo in the Independent.

Lesson learned.

Never rely on anything printed in the Independent.

Seriously, though, there's a question here.

How does CBC know it was a typo?

The reported double-billing for Diane Whelan was $291 not the nearly $21,900 and change attributed by Goodyear, based on the Indy's report. That's a pretty odd typo.

Well, like all good journalists, they likely checked the Auditor General's report directly.

The typo seems to be about the phrase "double-billing" and the amount of inappropriate spending.

Turns out that the Indy's figure of $21,976 dollars was Diane Whelan's amount of donations made from her constituency allowance. Both the AG and Chief Justice Green called that use of the constituency allowance inappropriate.

Add to that her $291 in double-billing - and relatively small amount attributable to clerical errors - and you get $22,267. [Aded 26 Sept: The Indy didn't sum the figures; they got them wrong, putting the donations number in the double-billing category and a second figure of about $8900 in the double-billing category. Indy editor Ryan Cleary acknowledhed the mistake publicly.]

The CBC story also points out that Gerry Reid - who was at the campaign event with Goodyear - donated over $22,000.

Think about a bit more and go back to the AG's report.

Whelan dropped $21,976 in donations in just three years. That represents 49% of her constituency allowance. That puts Whalen at the top of the list of donors of public money.

Reid's $22,000 was spread over 11 years.

There were some mistakes made by both the Indy and Goodyear, but one thing Goodyear got right was obvious: voters should ask every single incumbent about his or her spending. Make up your own mind based on the answer, if you can get an answer.

And don't forget the other lesson; double check everything you read in the Indy.

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Money and the ethnic vote: part 2 of 3

Ineffective policy

At its simplest level, the Progressive Conservatives pronatalist policy is aimed at increasing family size within Newfoundland and Labrador. Women will receive a bonus of each child delivered or adopted.

The pronatalist policy should be rejected since it does not work and therefore is a waste of scarce public money. Experience across the globe over the past 30 years demonstrates that cash incentives do not change fertility levels to an appreciable degree. The average number of children born per couple of child bearing age remains generally the same. The policy may produce some temporary fluctuations but overall, fertility rates in major industrialized countries remain the same after pronatalist policies as before.

In jurisdictions where pronatalist policies have been tried, they tend to be very expensive. Quebec's decade long cash-bonus program cost an average of $15,000 per child but was abandoned because it was ineffective. Where policies did affect the birth rate modestly,they include measures inconsistent with a modern democracy. Franco's Spain banned birth control, for example. However, once the dictatorial methods disappeared with the move to democracy in countries such as Poland or the former German Democratic republic, birth rates moved in directions experienced in other democratic countries. Overall, the policies simply do not work.

On another level, the cash incentive policy is touted as a way of dealing with a declining population size; more people are leaving Newfoundland and Labrador either through emigration or death than are immigrating or being born.

Migration is driven primarily by economic considerations – people leave to find work or come to take advantage of opportunities. Paying a cash bonus of any size will not affect that simple motive, either for new immigrants or as a way of attracting former residents to return. Family size is driven by complex factors, centred mostly on individual choice about lifestyle. None of these factors are affected by the limited policy announced by the Progressive Conservatives and certainly none are affected by the $1000 bounty placed on a set of diapers.

Randy Simms and others have pointed out these inherent flaws in the policy as a policy aimed at addressing demographic issues facing Newfoundland and Labrador in the decades ahead. Their criticisms are well-founded. However, they have ignored other aspects of the policy which make it not merely ineffective but socially and politically regressive.

There are two aspects to the demographic problem facing Newfoundland and Labrador. One is the declining population which reduces the available workforce. This can be addressed, most effectively by increased immigration. Workers will be needed now. We have already arrived at the start of the worker crunch and this situation – fewer workers – will only increase in the years immediately in front of us, if present trends continue. A cash bonus for children - even if we imagine that it will be effective here where it has failed everywhere else - will not produce new productive members of the economy for the better part of two decades.

The second aspect of the demographic problem is the changed makeup of the population. The dependent portion of our society increases as the population increases. That is, where once there were more people employed people than children and seniors, we are already in the state of having more children and seniors than wage workers.

This has an obvious economic consequence in that each worker must produce - on average - more revenue for the treasury so that the existing public services can be maintained. Paying a bonus for having children does nothing to increase productivity or increase average wages.

Part of the flaw in the proposed policy is the emphasis on the declining population size. The adverse implications of the demographic changes taking place in Newfoundland and Labrador do not flow from the size of the population alone. In the fishery, for example, it is well established that the industry will have to change from its labour intensive production in order to remain competitive. Fewer people will be needed. it is possible to have a vibrant, viable economy with a smaller population or even one with a high rate of dependency - more non-workers than workers - than currently exists in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Ignoring the evidence

That said, it is instructive to look at Danny Williams' comments to reporters:

We've had some lengthy discussions on this in caucus and at cabinet... and what we've done is we've looked at the jurisdictions across Canada, to the best of our ability, and as quickly as we could in advance of the election, government had started to do this process, but it's a very detailed process, and we want to make sure we follow through.

We're also looking at some precedent in Europe, and other modern countries, trying to encourage young families to have children. It's a clear problem, and it's an economic problem... This government is open to suggestions, and good suggestions... It's probably one of the key points in our platform, that we feel very strongly about. It's something we'd certainly like to implement as soon as possible. It hasn't been budgeted. One of the best jurisdictions and one of the most successful, of course, was Quebec. And they have found it to be one of the most successful initiatives. But I'd be remiss in [not] saying that we're still preliminary on this. [Emphasis added]

The policy was obviously hastily assembled. It is also obvious that the claim that Quebec's program was successful fly in the face of evidence. The current administration clearly appreciates that the demographic issue is an economic problem.

In the last part of this commentary, we'll look at possible explanations for the pronatal policy that defies the obvious reasons not to pursue it.

-srbp-

Victims in our own house

From the Monday Telegram, a letter criticising the bootie bonus:

Though Newfoundland may have had a small European settler population, the majority of which came from the West Country in England and the southwestern Irish (which I assume is Williams' favoured race), there exists in this province people of French, Scottish, Métis, and aboriginal ancestry. Do these people constitute a part of this supposed dying race?

First, how is this going to appear to the rest of country?

Québécois nationalists have been arguing the notion of "pure laine" for over 40 years. It implies that only Quebecers who are white, French-speaking, and have long-established ancestry can be considered Québécois.

Quebec historians like Lionel Groulx, who was a raving racist, argued during the 1920s and '30s that French Quebecers, as well, were a dying race and under threat from powerful outside influences. By putting our grievances as a nation in racial terms, it will be looked on with scorn and amusement by Newfoundland's critics, and will make any demand to have our destiny in our own hands illegitimate.

Second, when immigration becomes a fact of life in our province, how will this appear to the immigrant population? Will they not be considered real Newfoundlanders? Are the immigrants and refugees living there now considered Newfoundlanders?

These are heady times in our province and we find ourselves at a crossroad. We can continue with political rhetoric that existed when Britannia ruled supreme and women were seen and not heard, or we can open ourselves to the world as a proud and distinct nation.

Unfortunately, it seems we don't have the worldly leadership that this province deserves, but instead one that loves to see us as victims in our own house.

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Cops as props

Think George Bush and the number of times he's used the men and women of the United States armed services as political props.

Imagine a raft of Progressive Conservative candidates standing behind their boss as he holds a partisan news conference with the latest batch of police recruits as his audience.

The only thing missing was the Premier pulling up to the newser in a police car, lights blazing and siren blaring and then The Boss taking a dive onto the hood of a "perp's" get-away vehicle.

Pure T.J. Hooker.

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The old in-out, in-out

The federal Liberal Party released some added details into their allegations that the federal Conservatives tried to flout Elections Canada rules on election advertising.

The release can be found here, and there's an interesting attachment giving the ridings supposedly involved at this link.

Local angle: four of the ridings allegedly involved are in Newfoundland and Labrador

-srbp-

Rural neglect a tacit strategy by Liberals says Williams

Remember April 2006 and the big Hebron fiasco?

Danny Williams told local CBC news that "St. John's could take the hit" resulting from Hebron's failure since his focus was on rural Newfoundland.

Well, it's an election and that sentiment is no longer the view of the first townie to hold the Premier's chair in the better part of a century.

Apparently St. John's has been neglected, not by the Tories, mind you but by the evil Liberals.

And the venue for this little revelation? A speech in rural Newfoundland where the Premier decided also that rural Newfoundland has not been neglected by him.

Nope. It was the Liberals who neglected rural Newfoundland to drive people out.

There is obviously no limit to what a politician will say to grab a few votes.

Well, at least one politician.

As you ponder that little piece of reality, take a look at this post on outmigration from a time when local politicians didn't want to talk about it.

Since outmigration has mushroomed again under Danny Williams, would that be part of a tacit strategy as well?

-srbp-

St. John's has been neglected, premier says
Terry Roberts
The Telegram (St. John's, NL)
September 24, 2007, p. A7


St. Anthony - Growth in the province's economy may be most noticeable in the capital city region, but Premier Danny Williams acknowledges St. John's has been "neglected" during his government's first four years in office.

Ironically, Williams made the admission during a campaign stop in rural Newfoundland Friday night, where cabinet minister Trevor Taylor is seeking re-election in the district of The Straits-White Bay North.

"St. John's will need work," Williams said before a crowd of some 150 people at a rally in St. Anthony.

The provincial government will invest about $440 million in infrastructure this year. It's part of a $2-billion infrastructure commitment.

But only a fraction of this year's budget will be spent in the St. John's metropolitan region.

It's part of a strategy by the Progressive Conservatives to modernize roads, education, health and telecommunications in rural areas in order to stimulate economic development.

Williams also complained Friday in St. Anthony that significant spending was needed because of many years of Liberal neglect.

During the 1990s, many Liberal heavyweights - Paul Dicks, Chuck Furey, Chris Decker and Brian Tobin - represented districts on the west coast and Northern Peninsula, yet the region was ignored, Williams said.

He believes allowing the infrastructure to crumble was part of a tacit strategy by the Liberals to make life more difficult for residents "so there is no reason to live there."

While the bulk of future investments will continue to be made in rural areas, Williams said St. John's will begin to see a large piece of the pie.

"There's going to come a point in time where we need to do some things within the city as well," he said.

Williams said there's a need to expand the Health Sciences Centre. He also committed to increased investments in long-term care facilities and schools in St. John's.

Williams' comments come at a time when the Liberals continue to rail against the Tories over what they claim is an abandonment of rural Newfoundland.

Williams said that's not true.

He said areas such as Clarenville, Bay Roberts and Deer Lake are beginning to boom. The Coast of Bays region, which has fallen on hard times in recent years, is also seeing growth in aquaculture.

"There's a misperception out there that things aren't good in rural Newfoundland and Labrador, when nothing is further from the truth. And in fact the irony is that there's still things that need to be done in St. John's," he said.

Yep. He's pissed

How can you tell? 

  He drops the 'd' word. 

 Democracy. 

 When other people do it, it's an attack on democracy. 

When Danny Williams uses the same sort of tactics, he is just standing up for his peeps. 

 Actually it's not really the tactics it's the fundamental challenge on Williams represented by the Labrador "revolt" Danny Williams argues that "Canada" exploits Newfoundland (and Labrador) resources and gives nothing in return. Within the province, people of Labrador make the same argument and with some justification. 

 This sort of argument flies in the face of Danny's core political belief, namely that the only legitimate political fight is the one between the "nation" he leads and the one on the mainland. Everything else must be subordinated to that since, if nothing else, it becomes the justification for his holding power. His political legitimacy derives from his supposedly superior ability to wage the supposedly only legitimate fight. 

Take a look at his campaign song. Look at the line: "stop your 'more for me please' rants" Not aimed outward, but aimed inward. "We" all must stand together behind the single leader and speak with a single voice in the Great Fight. "Cause if we don't stand together, then we don't stand a chance". Danny's cause is just and noble. 

 Every other demand within the province is illegitimate, a 'political game', a subversion of democracy simply by virtue of the way he defines it. His language is simplistic and self-serving. It's like he never learned the Golden Rule, or it's political equivalent: "What goes around comes around." 

 But subversion of democracy? 

 Well, around these parts that's the sort of term we'd reserve for a Premier who has no problem with taking away free speech in the House of Assembly.

 

-srbp-

One here. One there.

Sandra Pupatello, Ontario Liberal cabinet minister seeking re-election on October 10.

Jim Bennett, Newfoundland and Labrador Liberal candidate seeking election in the October 9 general election.

Anyone know of any other husband/wife combos running in elections simultaneously in two different provinces?

-srbp-