Cruising the numbers

The local tourism industry is a notorious spin machine, constantly trying to make things sound as magically delicious as possible.

That may be great for marketing but the hyper-torque makes it very difficult for anyone trying to get a handle on what the actual trends are in tourism or if all the money spent is bringing real dividends.

Take the local cruise ship marketing crowd for instance.  Their website is famous for predicting banner years in visitors, but the actual performance sometimes comes a little shy of the forecast.

In 2008, the tourism marketing agency predicted there’d be 60,000 passengers and crew visiting the province. The actual number was 50,000.  In fact, between 2005 and 2008, the number of passengers and crew from cruise ships has ranged between 50,000 (the low for the period) and 55,500 in 2007. The cruise authority’s forecasts are something else again.

This year, the prediction is for 65,000 visitors bolstered by provincial government cash. In fact, what catches the eye in a government news release is this claim:

Newfoundland and Labrador’s cruise industry has experienced significant growth in recent years. The latest industry research projects a 38 per cent growth rate since 2008 in the number of passengers and crew visiting the province – to exceed 65,000 visitors in 2009.

Since they don’t tell us what the performance was before 2008, we don’t know the basis on which the “research” makes the projection and we certainly don’t know how much growth there has been.

Usually a lack of concrete information is the first sign of bullshit and in this case, you’d be right on. Once you’ve checked the numbers, you’d discover that they’ve actually been pretty stable over the last four “recent” years.  Between 2007 and 2008, the trend was decidedly downward.

That second sentence is a bit dodgy as well since it holds out a prediction for this year compared to last year but without any solid underpinning.

Now once you have the numbers, you can also start to question basic math skills.  65,000 visitors in 2009 would represent 15,000 more than actually showed up in 2008.

That’s 30% more, not 38%.

But that number “38” didn’t wind up there by accident.  It was probably cut and pasted from an earlier news release.

You see 38% would be the increase CANAL predicted earlier this year when they were forecasting there’d be 69,000 cruise visitors in 2009.

Luckily they didn’t cut and past the earlier earlier prediction:  a 56% increase - 78,000  - in cruise ship visitors to in Newfoundland and Labrador in 2009. 

In other words, in the space of a few weeks, the cruise authority’s “research” forecast a 56% increase, then successively smaller numbers until this most recent one which is now 13,000 visitors lower than their first prediction.

Now the cruise ship industry, like the whole tourism industry, is a key part of the local economy.  Unfortunately, when it comes to facts, there are some in the industry who prefer the stuff that sounds good over the stuff you can measure. That’s too bad because every one of these visitors is a real visitor bringing new money into the economy.  Whether there are 50,000 of them this year or 60-, 65-, 70- or 78, 000, that’s a good thing.

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INP boondoggle tagged for axe in Irish expenditure cuts

A decade old business/trade project between Ireland and Newfoundland and Labrador that seems to have generated only cultural exchanges and ministerial trade missions has been identified by an Irish government-appointed panel  as one area of government spending the Irish government could cut in tough fiscal times.

In the report issued last week, the Special Group on Public Service Numbers and Expenditure Programs recommends chopping public spending for the Ireland-Newfoundland Business partnership:

“…the discontinuation of programmes within the Department of the Taoiseach which are no longer justifiable given the significantly reduced Exchequer resources available and the existence of other more important priorities. Expenditure on the Active Citizenship Office and the Newfoundland Labrador Partnership falls into this category.” [Emphasis added]

In the report’s second volume, the panel cited a lack of an economic rationale to underpin the project as a key reason for recommending it get the axe:

This programme was developed to promote and develop cooperation with the provinces of Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada. The Group understands that the partnership developed from the recognition of extensive migration ties between Ireland and Newfoundland/Labrador and the desire to build cooperation. However, there is no significant economic rationale to underpin continuation of the scheme and the Group recommends that the scheme be abolished to save €0.3m a year.

In setting the background for the recommendations, the group noted that the Irish government is facing a projected deficit in 2009 of 18.4 billion Euros.  The panel was also aiming at reducing the Irish public service which had grown overall 17% in the past eight years. 

In some sectors, the report noted disproportionate growth “in the ratio of senior-level grades where, for example, the numbers at middle to higher management levels in the civil service grew by some 82% in the period 1997 to 2009 at a time when civil service numbers as a whole increased by 27%.” (page 12)

The government is looking for ways to return the budget to balance in the shortest possible time.  The scope of the financial problems being faced in Dublin are laid out succinctly in the opening of the report:

Consequently, Ireland is now in a position where we need to borrow more to fund a larger budgetary deficit, while paying higher costs for this borrowing. This means that ever increasing proportions of our tax revenues will be needed to service the national debt. In 2009 over 11% of estimated tax revenues will be used for this purpose, compared with a figure of about 4½% of tax revenues as recently as 2007.

In Newfoundland and Labrador, innovation minister Shawn Skinner expressed his belief that the partnership would continue but his comments suggest that either he hadn’t read the report or had been very badly briefed before speaking with reporters.

"They are physically moving the office of the INP to the Taoiseach's office which is like … the premier over there or the prime minister over there and that to me speaks to the significance that the Irish hold this office in," he said.

The report clearly indicates that the partnership is already housed under the Taoiseach’s (first minister’s) office so that is really no indication of anything. 

Moreover, given the magnitude of the country’s financial problems, no office was safe from recommended cuts.  Even defence, which had seen a reduction of 8% in staffing over the past eight years, is included in the projected cuts and rationalisation.

The CBC online story (linked above) erroneously refers to the report as being prepared by consultants.  This suggests something with far less official status than it does.  The review panel was appointed by the Irish government as part of a specific government financial management project.  It received technical and administrative support directly by staff from the country’s finance ministry.

Skinner also said:

“"They are very cognizant of the good work that's being down by the INP with the IBP and they want to see that continue and I have no doubt they will continue to fund this office."

Pretty well all the projects and offices proposed for the chopping block do “good work”.  Most do far more “good work” core to Irish domestic social and economic interests than the half-million dollar partnership.

The current Irish national debt is more than 65 billion Euros.

The report is now in the hands of a parliamentary committee for detailed review before the next budget is set in the fall.

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The Shoe Cove Connection

On July 20, 1969, humans first walked on the moon and Newfoundland and Labrador has played a role in the American space program since the beginning.

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) operated a  station at Shoe Cove, north of St. John’s to provide telemetry for launches from Cape Canaveral and to assist in track spacecraft in orbit as part of the Manned Space Flight Network (MSFN). The Shoe Cove was one of dozens operated around the globe in support of the NASA program.

The site is identified in NASA historical records as being at St. John’s, but the facility was located north of the city, near Cape St. Francis.

The Shoe Cove facility operated from 1960 until it was phased out in 1970.  As such, Newfoundland played a role in the Mercury, Gemini and Apollo programs. A portable Minitrack and Optical Tracking System (MOTS) was moved to Newfoundland from a site in the Bahamas to support launches for Skylab.

The dates for the site are given incorrectly in some local accounts.  Several  documents available online give dates for the site from the late 1950s until the early 1970s.  One, dated 1962,  includes the frequencies on which the local system operated. An application for the site was approved by the federal cabinet in 1959.

With the end of the Apollo and Skylab projects in the 1970s, the connection between the American space program Newfoundland didn’t end.

Newfoundland remains a site in the Cape Canaveral range monitoring system.  With the closure of the U.S. naval facility at Argentia,  the 45th Space Wing, headquartered at Patrick Air Force Base, took control of one of the buildings still covered by the 1941 lease on the site. It is the last remaining American military location in Newfoundland and Labrador.  

An X-band radar installed on top of the building provides telemetry for launches from Canaveral along the northern portion of the range. The site is operated remotely but may be manned as needed.  The building and its systems are not part of NASA  - they belong to the U.S. Air Force’s 1st Range Operations Squadron, 45th Space Wing - but support NASA operations.

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Halberstam on the late Walter Cronkite

From The Atlantic, an excerpt of David Halberstam’s piece on television journalism:

…He knew by instinct the balance between journalism and show biz; he knew you needed to be good at the latter, but that you must never take it too far. He was enough of an old wire-service man to be uneasy with his new success and fame. He was just sophisticated enough never to show his sophistication.

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Ospreys 3

Here are some shots of CV-22 “0032” on the runway at St. John’s.  Apparently the US Air Force Ospreys  didn’t leave a couple of days ago as these came through this afternoon.

Note the heat plumes on the bottom shot coming from the engine.

 

Meanwhile, you can find one of Gary Hebbard’s shots at Avweb, in the slide show of reader-submitted shots.

Plus ca change pour M. Hodder

The Jim Walsh trial continued in court this week.

Former House of Assembly Speaker Harvey Hodder is still on the stand.

The Telegram account of his evidence on cross examination suggests the former Speaker is continuing the curious pattern he has had of offering accounts of events that vary somewhat over time.

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Kremlinology 4: there and not there

Another news release of cash for Trevor Taylor’s district but no sign of any comment from the cabinet minister in the official news release from government.

Then again, a news release issued the same day with cash for a different project in the same community and Trevor is there, large as life.

Curious.

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Back to the moon

As part of the 40th anniversary of the Apollo 11 moon landing NASA is spending US$230,000 to restore video footage of the first mission that put humans on the moon.

NASA lost the original video in the 1980s when old tapes were inadvertently erased and re0used.  The lunar mission sent video pictures from the moon using a format unusable by television.  NASA converted the images into a TV-friendly format and it is those converted images that were broadcast around the world.  in the process, much was lost, apparently.

The restoration project involved a combination of footage found in video archives around the world and some 36 hours of video that survived in NASA’s own archive.

Some of the restored footage was unveiled Thursday on the 40th anniversary of the Apollo 11 launch of Cape Canaveral. There is also a NASA website containing still and video images of the Apollo 11 mission as well as NASA’s Apollo program page. Google also has a Google Moon site which covers the lunar landings from Apollo 11 until the last mission Apollo 17.

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Conflict of interest curiosity

Under the 1995 Conflict of Interest Act, a public officer hold is defined as any person who “receives a salary or other remuneration, in whole or in part, from money voted by the legislature…”.

That would make a cabinet minister a public office holder under the meaning of the Act.

Pretty simple, right?

There are also sections of the House of Assembly Act  that cover conflict of interest for elected members. There are provisions that tell cabinet ministers what to do.

They all come down to the same basic points.  People can’t further their private interests using information they gain from their public office.  In addition, cabinet ministers who may find themselves in a conflict of interest have a couple of options on how to handle a specific case, should it arise.

The simplest way for a cabinet minister to avoid an appearance of conflict is to place any business interests in a blind trust as soon as he or she is appointed to cabinet.

The reason is pretty simple:  lots of things come before cabinet or a cabinet committee, especially at budget time.  If you had certain types of business interests, the “leave the room” or “get someone else to do it” procedures set out in the House of Assembly Act would basically mean some ministers would spend more time out of the cabinet room than in it.

The Premier sensibly put his interests in such a blind trust after the October 2003 election.  He may have taken a while to do it and he may have moaned and complained as he went through the process but ultimately, his approach is the most sensible way to avoid political problems. When you have important work to do, there’s no reason to be distracted by issues that can be easily avoided.

Odd then, that the Premier has apparently made no such rules for his cabinet.  In response to reporters’ questions today, the Premier said that handling potential conflicts of interest would be a matter for the new health minister to sort out with former Tory party president Paul Reynolds ( in his role as Commissioner of Legislative Standards) but, for his part, Danny Williams advised Oram to put things in a blind trust.

Advised him?

Odder then, that Oram has been in cabinet – as business minister – but hasn’t bothered to sort out this issue before now.  A blind trust is a really simple, practical solution to a very real potential political problem.

And the whole thing is odder yet again considering that in 1997, then-Premier Brian Tobin issued cabinet conflict of interest guidelines that added to the requirements already in legislation.

1) Ministers shall place in a blind trust all assets, financial interests or other sources of income within the definition of "private interest" in S. 20 (e) of the Act, except for those that are an "excluded private interest" within the definition of S. 20 (a) of the act;

(2) Trustees for these blind trusts shall be other than members of the Minister's immediate family; and

(3) Ministers shall cease to serve as directors or officers in a company or association, as referred to in S. 20 (e) (iii) of the act.

Tobin acted amid accusations of a conflict of interest involving one of his ministers.

Maybe that’s what Danny Williams referred to before the 2003 election when he laid out his own ethics and accountability commitments to the people of Newfoundland and Labrador:

We've seen blatant abuse of office and taxpayers' money, allegations concerning conflict of interest, questions of fundraising contributions, and suggestions of impropriety during leadership conventions. These are very serious issues that are eroding the people's confidence in government. [Emphasis added]

Who knows?  Maybe he had other issues in mind.

But there’s no doubt he was aware of the issues and concerned enough about them to issue a suite of promises on ethics.

He didn’t mention a specific commitment on cabinet ministers and conflicts of interest but it seems passing strange that he hasn’t given his ministers any specific instructions on conflict of interest for his own cabinet.  If nothing else, clear instructions remove needless political problems like we said already.

The Premier certainly has the power, authority and everything else needed to set the rules for his own cabinet.

So how come he has decided to let Paul Reynolds sort it out?

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Last Osprey shot

The CV-22s from 8 Special Operations Squadron and their escort Hercules aircraft left St. John’s at around 1430 hours local time on Wednesday afternoon.

That doesn’t mean the end of the great shots, however.

This one shows “0028” on approach, transitioning the engine pods to the vertical position in preparation for landing.  They are at about 45 degrees in this shot.

Incidentally, the pointy bit on the nose is the end of the  refuelling probe. 

Ospreys at YYT: Day 2

A flurry of photographers arrived in ye olde e-mail inbox this morning from local aircraft enthusiasts.

These people can also use a camera.

With the better pictures, it is now easy to confirm that the aircraft belong to 8th Special Operations Squadron, US Air Force unit that is part of Special Operations Command. 

To quote the factsheet:

“The primary mission of the 8th SOS is insertion, extraction, and re-supply of unconventional warfare forces and equipment into hostile or enemy-controlled territory using airland or airdrop procedures. Numerous secondary missions include psychological operations, aerial reconnaissance and helicopter air refuelling. To accomplish these varied missions, the 8th SOS utilizes the CV-22 Osprey, a highly specialized Bell-Boeing tilt-rotor aircraft.”

They fly out of Hurlburt Field in Florida.

Unlike the Marine and Navy aircraft, these come with a variety of specialised attachment including countermeasures, radio and different radar.

Here’s a shot of the one included in last night’s update.

You can see some of the additional bumps on the nose to accommodate some of the specialised add-ons.

Here’s another spectacular photo of 0028 on approach. 

Look at the tail ramp and you can make out the loadmaster next to what appears to be a weapons mount covered in a yellow tarpaulin.

Turns out to that these aircraft have been through St. John’s before.  In October 2008, they transited through St. John’s, presumably on the way to an international exercise in Mali. 

The photos below are from the October visit.  They clearly show “0028” and “0031” both of which went through St. John’s in the past 24 hours, destination across the Atlantic presumably.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

“0031” with blades folded.

Another aircraft being readied for flight.

“0031” ready to launch.

Fantasy Island; Flags of Our Fathers version

A cabinet minister whose doesn’t know his historical arse from his current events elbow.

And now a bunch of guys who put up a flag to remind us, supposedly, of where we came from, of our past. That’s how one of the guys behind a giant pink, white and green flag described the project for CBC Radio’s Chris O’Neill-Yates.

Seems some yahoo unscrewed the flag base and demolished the thing a month or so after the boys put it back. Apparently it’s been vandalised every year since it was stuck up there a few years ago.

Ah yes, a glorious reminder of our past.

Our past as the pre-Confederation Newfoundland, it would seem:

As mentioned in my last post, we’re putting up the Republic of Newfoundland flag on the South Side hills, and everyone is invited to join in on the hike.

Those familiar with what actually happened will no doubt be scratching their heads and rightly so. Just stop before you cut through the skin.

The Republic of Newfoundland is fiction.

Never existed.

Never happened.

The “republic” is entirely the invention of a local guy looking to make a buck on a few tee-shirts. And he’s made it too what with the popularity of the shirts among the latter-day corner boys.

The flag – in all its pink, white and green gloriousness – belonged to a St. John’s crowd but over its whole history it never gained widespread popularity through what became the Dominion of Newfoundland.

It was certainly never adopted as the official flag of the country.

In other words, at the very best, the flag is a townie artefact but as the flag of a republic? You can’t be the flag of something that never existed anyways.

The crowd who demolished the flag are very likely not a bunch of historians on a rampage.

They are most likely just another bunch of locals who like to destroy what others have made, even if – in this case – what the flag represents is entirely a figment of someone’s imagination masquerading as reality.

Oh well.

If the boys with the flag are raising some money to fly their flag again, maybe they can get in touch with Paul Oram.

He seems like the poster child for their project.

Update November 21, 2009: New title to deconflict with another post. Both were originally titled "Fantasy Island"

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Seen at YYT: Ospreys!

Pictures to follow but three Osprey tilt-rotors arrived at St. John’s airport within the last hour, apparently accompanied by a KC-130.

The Osprey is an unconventional aircraft that is entering service with the United States Marine Corps, Navy and Special Operations Command.  Launching and recovering vertically like a helicopter, the engine pods rotate in the air allowing the aircraft to fly like propeller driven airplane.

For those who haven’t seen one, here’s a US Navy stock shot of one in a hover.

 

 

 

 

 

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No Joy Update:  Your humble e-scribbler is not a photographer.

St. John’s airport has a ramp where aircraft are parked in cases when the owners don’t want them seen.

That’s where the three Ospreys and a bevy of Hercs are parked, with the Hercs positioned in such a way that only the tips of the blades of two of the Ospreys could even been seen from the airport fence.

In the twilight, the third could be seen, behind a service truck, with its rotor blades folded.  if you squint and look at the shape inside the red outline above, there she is.  That glint slightly right of centre is the reflection of the airport trucks yellow roof light on the aircraft windscreen.  The starboard engine is just above the truck.

Hopefully some other local aircraft enthusiasts had better luck and are better photographers.

Having big guns helps

Paper maker Kruger may be getting additional financial help from the provincial government to keep its mill in Corner Brook operational.

There’s nothing new in this.  The provincial government has been subsidizing the forest industry for years.

What makes this a bit different is that the area has such strong representation in government.

No one is explaining to forestry workers why subsidies are bad, as fish minister Tom Hedderson did a few weeks ago when people wanted some cash to help out that troubled industry.

Having big guns helps.

Of course,  having those big guns a wee bit worried doesn’t hurt either.

You can tell they are worried about local public anxiety about the future of the Kruger operation when a news release appears advising that every provincial politician from the Corner Brook area will be traveling in a pack on Wednesday.

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Good news on fishery

It may have taken a global crisis to bring everyone together but the provincial government, the Association of Seafood Producers and the Fish Food and Allied Workers union have reached an agreement to develop a plan on restructuring the fishery.

Working groups will look at financing, marketing and overall restructuring.

The process will be directed and overseen by a steering committee consisting of two representatives from each of the FFAW, ASP and the Department of Fisheries and Aquaculture. An independent chair will be appointed by the Provincial Government and the working groups will be assisted by a facilitator from the department.

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Sorta NSFW Monday

There is no limit to the human imagination.

Proof can be found in the marvellous Lego.

Millions of children have grown up with them, building entire worlds out of a few small bricks.  We loved them and cherish them and sometimes choked on them, but with Lego we could build a world which was entirely ours.

Some of us couldn’t bear to part with these special toys from our childhood. Your humble e-scribbler still has a bag of all his 1960s and 1970s era bits and pieces but they haven’t been played with in a while.

Okay.

Maybe since last week.

Ummm.

Anyway…

For your amusement, here are some links to what some of the hornier adult Lego fans get up to in their spare time.

Given that they involve sexual images, we have to put a warning label on them that they may not be suitable for all ages and may not be safe for work.  Given that they are Lego people, they might be safe for some workplaces, hence the “Sorta NSFW”.

There is the Lego Kama sutra, although there are only 12 pictures in that link.  If memory serves, there were a few more positions than that in the book.  Bonus points to anyone who can find a Ferrari in the original illustrations.

Rest easy, literary purists.  Someone else has reproduced additional positions from the  Kama sutra and made a slide show of the result.

There is another collection of 40 pictures of Lego people in various suggestive positions.  We call them “suggestive” since the wee Lego people are not even close to anatomically correct and they are merely positioned close to each other in certain poses that hint at  certain sexual positions. 

With that in mind, the genius behind this  little collection evidently has an obvious fondness for one position.  Given the frequency with which it appears, odds are he or she isn’t getting  much of it.

Note that the one with the elephant and  another with the Batman characters are just warped enough to put some people off their oatmeal.

Those of you of the kinkier persuasion will probably like the rather elaborate one that isn’t depicting intercourse.  Or police officers, for that matter although handcuffs show up.

Now if all that Lego smutification isn’t your cup of tea, there are some other truly inventive and well-done bits of animation on youtube using Lego.

Raiders of the Lost Ark.

Sorta.

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Sudbury workers on strike

Vale Inco’s unionized employees in Sudbury hit the picket line Monday after 85% rejected the company’s latest contract offer in voting on the weekend.

According to the Globe and Mail:

At issue was Vale's proposal to reduce a bonus tied to the price of nickel.

In addition, workers opposed a plan by the company to exempt new employees from its defined-benefit pension plan, which guarantees employees a reliable and steady income after retirement.

The company is proposing to provide them with a defined-contribution plan, which bases retirement benefits on investment returns.

Employees at the company's Voisey's Bay operations in Labrador voted 99 per cent against the same offer on Wednesday and are set to begin a strike on Aug. 1.

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$300 million for Goose Bay environmental clean-up

The federal government will spend $300 million for environmental clean-up at 5 Wing Goose Bay. The clean-up project will end in 2020.

The clean-up is being touted as an economic boost to the town in addition to the obvious environmental value.

"This significant investment benefits the Wing, contributes to the economic foundation of the community and mitigates risk to human health and the environment," MacKay, who visited the base Sunday, said in a news release.

Liberal member of parliament Todd Russell sees the clean-up as a prelude to shutting the military base. Russell is quoted by the Ottawa Citizen’s David Pugliese:

"When governments clean up they're looking to clear out," he said.

The defence minister’s spokesman, Dan Dugas, denies the claim according to Pugliese:

Dugas said Goose Bay continues to play an important role in the Canadian Forces operations. "We believe in the base," he added.

Dugas noted that around $100 million a year is spent annually operating the base. In addition, $20 million was recently spent on improving runways there.

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Government on shuttle watch?

STS-127 will launch from Cape Canaveral in less than four hours.

The shuttle Endeavour will launch on an inclination of 51.6 degrees taking it over the Hibernia, Terra Nova and White Rose platforms.

Is our offshore oil safe from the possibility shuttle pieces will fall on top of them in some sort of fiery cataclysm?

Don’t laugh.

Only four short years ago, the Premier threw a very public and very ill-informed panic attack over rocket launches heading over the precious oil fields and the prospect one might drop and blow everything up.

It was one of the early dramas in what seems to have become  a drama-filled administration.

Not all have been so preposterous or as laughable.

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Weather Report Update:  They scrubbed the launch due to bad weather.

Paul Oram: Minister of Revisionist History

Former business minister Paul Oram did a series of interviews when he was in Atlanta last October to attend a trade mission.

His interview on diversifying the economy is interesting mostly because Oram manages to completely cock-up just about everything.

According to Oram, the cod moratorium took place in the “early to mid-1980s”.

If you think that was a slip of the tongue consider that according to Oram, once the moratorium started,  we then turned to diversifying the economy with mining for things like iron ore and uranium.  Iron ore mining dates back to the 1890s, not the 1980s and as for uranium, there isn’t a functioning uranium in the province at the moment.  There never has been one. There are prospects but no actual mine.

The Lower Churchill will start up within the coming year (i.e. 2009) according to Oram, even though the thing had not even started the environmental review process when he did the interview.  It won’t complete the process until 2010-2011.

When asked about innovation, Oram couldn’t give an example.  Instead, he talked about the difference between his department and the innovation department.

We’ll be generous and say that oram sounded like the minister of revisionist history.

Others might say he was the minister of  the “Don’t know a Damn Thing” department.

Oh.

Incidentally, just count the number of times Oram says “to be honest with you.”

We assume he is being honest.  It’s just that he honestly doesn’t have a clue about recent events in Newfoundland and Labrador.

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