16 March 2010

Satisfaction with Williams gov drops 13 points

What’s the difference between approval and satisfaction?

Well, quite a lot according to Newfoundlanders and Labradorians surveyed during February by two polling firms.

A Corporate Research Associates poll conducted between February 9 and February 25 showed public satisfaction with the Danny Williams administration at a record 93% percent.

But a new survey by Angus Reid conducted during the same time period (February 16 to 23) showed that only 80% of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians approved of Danny Williams’ performance as Premier.

The Angus Reid poll has a lower margin of error at 3.9% 19 times out of 20 compared with CRA’s 4.9%. in addition to a news release, Angus Reid also released a description of the polling methodology and details on the poll itself.  CRA does not release that information.

What this really shows, though, is the gigantic discrepancy between CRA and other pollsters in their results.  The problem with CRA polls is highlighted by the difference in results between AR and CRA for Nova Scotia.  The Angus Reid poll also highlights a huge discrepancy between the AR poll and CRA’s results on a similar question in Nova Scotia. 

According to CRA:

Satisfaction with the NDP government declined even more significantly, with one-half of residents satisfied with the overall performance of the government (49%, down from 63% three months ago).

But according Angus Reid, the Nova Scotia government led by New Democrat Darrell Dexter has only 23% approval down from 49% in November 2009.

Bond papers has contended for some time that CRA polls are wildly inaccurate measures of public opinion.




Wm. Murphy said...

...showed that only 80% of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians approved of Danny Williams’ performance as Premier.

Those are exceptional numbers...don't you think?

Ed Hollett said...

They are exceptional, if they were real.

Then again if I polled on the northeast Avalon, I'd likely get those numbers or better.

The out-of-towners don't necessarily poll here in such a way that they have a sample that accurately reflects the local opinion.

They aren't interested in (local) accuracy since the purpose of the poll is to generate a headline.

It's like Allan Gregg who once famously predicted something that never happened here. (Tory sweep in a federal election and instead the Liberals took it all). When asked about it he just sniffed and said "sample size was too small."

Wm. Murphy said...

Are you saying that the AR results are not real?

Ed Hollett said...

The purpose of the poll is to generate a headline.

Odds are that AR, like CRA, tends to poll heavily on the NE Avalon.

As a result it does not give a full and complete view of public opinion in the province or, to be a bit more accurate, as fukll and complete a view as it might.

These polls are like the safari jounralist piece on what's going on locally. It is the view from a very small window.

Anyong said...

When Williams' popularity drops to 49%...then you have something to chat about, moan about, debate about. Otherwise, it is smoke, smoke and more smoke. And, I am not a Williams supporter.