04 February 2014

The Abacus Poll for VOCM #nlpoli

A new poll by Abacus Data for VOCM shows the Liberals under Dwight ball leading the governing Conservatives in every region of Newfoundland and Labrador.

According to a new VOCM-Abacus Data random telephone survey of 500 eligible voters in Newfoundland and Labrador, the NL Liberals hold a 15-point lead over the PC Party among committed voters (Liberal 49% vs. PC 34%) with the NDP well back in third at 15%.

But that’s not all.

If you break down the sample by age cohort and sex, the Liberals are still well in front of the Conservatives.


The only age group where the Grits and Tories are close is in the over 60s. Even that’s not the greatest of news, given that older people are more likely to vote than the younger crowd.

Some people are probably trying to compare the Abacus poll with CRA’s quarterly omnibus.  The numbers are within the margin of error of both polls.

What you can find in the Abacus numbers that CRA can’t match is the exploration of how Tory voters have changed since 2011:

When we compare current vote intention with how voters said they voted in the 2011 provincial election, the Progressive Conservative Party has the support of 41% of its former supporters.  Twenty-eight percent (28%) of former PC supporters now say they would vote Liberal while 24% said they are undecided. Three percent of former PC supporters said they would now vote NDP.

That shows you how the Tory voters in 2011 have shifted to the Liberals.  Abacus notes there is a chance for the Tories to get back in the political game.  But note how far they’d have to go in order to do that:  “If 80% of those former PC voters who are now undecided come back and vote PC, the Tories would be neck and neck with the Liberals.”

80% regained would put them in a dead heat with the Liberals.

Well, a dead heat maybe.  It would all depend on how that 24% is distributed geographically.  Not all votes are equal, you see.