Today in history…

On this date in 2006, then natural resources minister Ed Byrne left the annual NOIA conference and went off to discuss with Premier Danny Williams the auditor general’s review of the House of Assembly accounts and specifically some problems discovered in the records for Byrne.

It was a Tuesday.

The next day – over 24 hours after that chat with Byrne – Williams told the rest of the province about what became the House of Assembly spending scandal.

How much had changed from a little over five years before when Williams took the reins of the Tory party from Byrne at a convention in St. John’s (left).

Byrne remained a major force within the party up to his resignation on June 21.

To mark the third anniversary of the scandal, Bond Papers has collected together links to the posts on the spending scandal.  You’ll find them if you scroll down the right hand column.  There are a lot since the scandal is huge and continues to reverberate to this day.  The are so many, we’ve had to break them down by year.  The first couple of months worth are ready as this post goes live.  The rest will follow in short order.  Unlike the last link list on the scandal, this one will be a permanent sidebar feature.  Interest in the issue hasn’t abated.

The are arranged chronologically beginning with the first one, posted the evening the Premier told the rest of us some of what he already knew.

The story has gone through a number of twists and turns as more information came to light.  Still, three years later, the people of Newfoundland and Labrador do not have a complete tally of how much cash went out the door nor do they have any idea where most of it went.

Along the way there have been some moments of personal satisfaction for your humble e-scribbler. 

In a post in August 2006 – two months into the scandal -  Bond Papers pointed out how much of that the Auditor General missed in his reports.  Chief Justice Derek Green confirmed it in his report in mid 2007. The Auditor general has never corrected his figures or explained his glaring oversights.

While the Green report turned out to be a significant turning point in the whole affair, the response was less edifying.  As Bond Papers reported first in “One last trip to the trough?” the members of the legislature adopted the Green bill quickly but made sure they didn’t have to live with the chief justice’s spending rules until after the fall election. 

Then- government House leader Tom Rideout proved a source of great entertainment as he tried to explain how in June the legislature had decided to implement the legislation “tomorrow” but in the language of parliament “tomorrow” was not the next day but a day five months later.  Only a title lifted from Get Smart – “Chaos in Control” -  could cover such a piece of hilarity.

Then there was a moment of unease.  In reviewing the posts, you will find one written early on about the use of public money for partisan purposes.  At that point it was only a suspicion. The suspicion was confirmed when Ed Byrne pleaded guilty to the charges levelled against him.

Only five individuals were charged in the scandal.  One pleaded guilty.  Another case is currently before the courts and three more are due to start over the summer and into the fall.

Since the scandal broke in the Bow Wow parliament, other similar stories have emerged elsewhere.  In Britain, the scandal of account mismanagement in the House of Commons has ended political careers sparked numerous investigations and may ultimately topple the Labour government.  The public has received details of the spending and reacted with appropriate anger.

Yet, three years later, and despite a series of investigations, there has not been a full public accounting of the money or where it all went.

There may never be.

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Meanwhile across the border…

The Government of Quebec is advancing plans to develop the Petit Mecatina river, according to a government news release issued Thursday. The project feasibility study is expected this year.

Media reports in early June indicated that the project had been modified to involve two generating stations from the original four.  This would accelerate the development but it is unclear if the other stations could be developed subsequently in order to maximise the power flow.  The headwaters of the river are in Labrador.

The La Romaine project recently received the go ahead.  Both are part of a plan to make Quebec the key source of hydro-electric power in North America. Some 4500 megawatts of power are expected to flow from a series of new projects started by Hydro-Quebec in its 2006-2010 plan.

The La Romaine project caused a political stir in Newfoundland and Labrador over claims by some in the province that the project would lead to a re-drawing of the border between the two provinces and that the La Romaine would adversely affect portions of Labrador.

While it initially dismissed concerns, the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador submitted a brief to the environmental panel detailing its concerns.

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S-92 crash – TSB report – tail rotor, MGB, “run dry”, flotation system

From the Transportation Safety Board report on Thursday:

• Flight data recorder stopped working at approximately 800 feet ASL
• The aircraft was in a controlled, powered-down descent at the time.
• At approximately 500 ft ASL, the tail rotor drive power was lost (Cause unknown).

 

Photo of 491’s tail rotor, showing damaged teeth.

• The tail rotor appears to be directly implicated in the crash, a point previously unknown.  At the time of the crash, there was no apparent loss of power to the main gearbox and it was rotating.  This suggests that it had not seized as would be expected if zero oil state had been attained due to leak and the gearbox had failed entirely.  Without oil, it would seize and stop turning.  Initial reports identified this as the main issue and the whole idea of a run dry capability served as the basis for public comment.  it also appears to be a factor in a lawsuit in the United States, launched Thursday.

Left:  tail rotor take off gear, new

Right:  tail rotor take off gear recovered from  Cougar 491

• The TSB report notes suggest another issue (not the MGB) led to the crash:

“Examination of the MGB indicates that there was no loss of main rotor drive and that the main rotor blades were rotating at the time of the impact. The examination of the MGB also revealed that the tail rotor drive gears had been severely damaged, resulting in a loss of drive, causing it to stop producing thrust. Further examination is being carried out by the TSB Engineering Laboratory to determine the cause and sequence of this loss of tail rotor drive.

The metallurgical examination of the titanium oil filter attachment studs revealed fatigue cracking in the studs as well as evidence of thread damage. A detailed metallurgical examination of the studs, nuts, and filter bowl is under way to identify the origin of the fatigue cracks and to determine the fracture mechanism.” [Emphasis added]

 

• Pilots initiated a main power shut down, immediately  (Time stamps show three seconds), which is standard procedure according to TSB.
• “The helicopter struck the water at approximately 1226 in a slight right-banked, nose-high attitude at an approximate location of 47°26'03" N, 051°56'34.8" W, with moderate speed and a high rate of descent.”
• TSB considers the nose-high attitude consistent with a flared landing approach.  With zero power, the descent would have been spiralling due to loss of the tail rotor.
• The aircraft flotation system did not deploy on impact. “The Sikorsky S-92A flotation system activation switch was found in the armed position after recovery.”
• The investigation revealed an issue with the S-92A flight manual:
• “…there is a perception in some areas of the aviation community that the MGB can be run in a dry state - that is, without lubricating oil - for 30 minutes. FAR 29 does not require run-dry operation of a gearbox to meet the 30-minute”.
• “The Sikorsky S-92A Rotorcraft Flight Manual (RFM) has been reviewed regarding MGB oil pressure loss below 5 pounds per square inch (psi) and the need for pilots to land immediately. An RFM revision has been approved by the FAA and Transport Canada.”
• Other issues are under investigation, as would be expected in an investigation of this type:

“A number of issues regarding survivability such as passenger immersion suit and crew flight suit effectiveness, use of underwater breathing devices, adequacy of survival training, adequacy of general ditching procedures, personal locator beacons, weather/sea state flight limitations, and Sikorsky S-92A flotation system are currently under investigation.”

Lack of royalty regime hampers further oil development

Not surprisingly, some people attending the NOIA conference in St. John’s are wondering what is next on the horizon.

As CBC reports, there is much talk of developing smaller fields in the Jeanne d’Arc basin.

There is also the recent announcement by StatoilHydro of a significant oil find at its Mizzen property, farther offshore than the three existing projects and Hibernia South and Hebron both under development.

Regardless of its size, Mizzen poses a number of challenges, not the least of which is the cost and technical issues of developing a field – even one of upwards of three billion barrels of oil – in deep water.

There are at least two others.

One is the impact of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Mizzen is well outside the 200 mile exclusive economic zone but may not lie outside the definition of the continental shelf.   If this is the case, the coastal state – namely Canada – would be required to set aside a portion of the revenue (maximum seven percent) from any development for distribution to the other states which are party to the convention.

Article 82

…

2. The payments and contributions shall be made annually with respect to all production at a site after the first five years of production at that site. For the sixth year, the rate of payment or contribution shall be 1 per cent of the value or volume of production at the site. The rate shall increase by 1 per cent for each subsequent year until the twelfth year and shall remain at 7 per cent thereafter. Production does not include resources used in connection with exploitation.

That’s potentially a significant cost to both Newfoundland and Labrador and to the companies.

That links to the other problem, namely the absence of an oil or gas royalty regime in the province.  Hibernia, Terra Nova, White Rose and Hebron all have royalty regimes.

The 2007 energy plan wiped out the existing generic oil regime. While the plan promised to replace it and issue a new gas regime, neither has emerged in the intervening years. There is no sign of either coming in the near future.

Even the development of smaller fields on the Jeanne d’Arc basin not associated with the existing projects is affected by the lack of a royalty regime.  The Hibernia South agreement is proposed using the Hibernia royalty regime developed in 1990 and amended in 2000, with some minor amendments.  Other projects would not have that as a basis, nor would it have the Terra Nova, the generic regime used at White Rose or the amended generic regime used for Hebron.

As Danny Williams said in 2005, oil companies don’t like risk.  Really though it isn’t that they dislike risk as much as they prefer predictability.  Even a volatile political climate is manageable, but when it comes to money, the companies like to have a good picture of what their costs will look like over time. That’s where an established royalty regime comes in handy.

In the meantime, some exploration will continue.  Seismic is pretty straightforward.  But when it comes to drilling holes and maybe looking at production, the lack of a predictable financial regime tends to make oil companies skittish.

The situation today is much the same as it was three or four years ago.  There are more exploration and development prospects for Big Oil than there is available capital.  They will put their money where they can figure out the financials.  Anything they can’t calculate  at all will go to the bottom of the pile in favour something somewhere else, even in a part of the world where the politicians in charge change with the sound of gunfire.

Now that Hebron and Hibernia South are pretty much done, the provincial government should turn its attention to restoring stability in the offshore financial regimes.

Above all else, that is what will determine the location of the next project or if there is a project at all.

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“How dare you complain about it?”

Not surprisingly, the latest of Danny Williams public attacks against any contrary voices is stirring further revelations.

The biggest news this week was Williams verbal assault on talk show host Randy Simms for suggesting that maybe some other issues in the province – like the faltering fishery – needed some urgent attention.

Apparently, it wasn’t the only testy exchange between the two.  Williams took a snotty tone with Simms during an exchange the week before over government’s role in a botched April announcement on breast cancer testing.

A caller to an open-line show Wednesday afternoon identified only as “Kevin” described his own experience with the political rant from a government member of the House of Assembly.

His crime?

Daring to voice an opinion in a local newspaper.

You’ll find the whole thing over at Geoff Meeker’s blog at the Telegram.

Farther down the post there’s a reference to Tom Marshall, minister of justice, who weighed in to support Williams in his tirade.  Marshall – who is widely respected as knowledgeable and decent – sometimes winds up in these sorry positions defending his boss.

In late 2007 former Tory Premier Brian Peckford was on the receiving end of a Marshall scolding. 

Curiously enough – in light of Randy Simms comments -  Peckford had dared to suggest that perhaps the provincial government was too focused on oil and that other issues deserved greater attention. Peckford’s was a sensible and reasonable presentation.

Marshall’s on the other hand, was  - uncharacteristically for him - a pile of misrepresentations and mindless Leader worship.  It included this dig which Peckford certainly did not deserve:

And for him to say that we're focusing exclusively on oil and gas would be the same as saying that when he was office he focused exclusively on growing cucumbers, and we all know that's not true. But it's an asinine comment to make and he has to be held to account for it.

Marshall was right, except that the asinine comments were his. And on another level Marshall can be forgiven since he did help put Danny Williams in the job.  Marshall was Williams’ west coast chair for the Tory leadership coronation in 2000-2001.

Marshall defends Williams in the most recent case by saying that if “you are against this province then he – and rightly so – is going to be your worst enemy.”

The only problem with that is that none of the people who have felt Williams’ wrath, like say Randy Simms, could even vaguely be considered to be “against this province.”

To make the point let’s leave aside the politicians.  Let’s forget Loyola Hearn, the guy who Williams supported for premier in the 1989 race to replace Peckford as Tory leader.  Let’s even forget that Hearn returned the favour and helped organize Williams’ campaign in 2000.

Let’s forget Norm Doyle and Fabian Manning.  Let’s leave aside John Efford, Roger grimes and basically any politician before Williams irrespective of party who has been dismissed as perpetrating give-aways.

Let’s just look at the ordinary people who wind up on the receiving end of a “crap” comment:

• Mark Griffin, a lawyer from Corner Brook was accused of betraying the province when he commented on concerns in central Newfoundland after the closure of the AbitibiBowater mill.
• From the Gulf News in 2008 during the Memorial University fiasco:

‘However, the most disturbing conclusion of all in this wretchedly pathetic display of political arrogance, is that we now know we have a government with a paranoid determination to control.

Premier Williams has been known to personally call editors and letter writers who offer criticism of him and his government's decisions.

While his stated aim is to "set the record straight" the tactic probably leaves ordinary letter-writing citizens with the sense of "better be careful what you say because He is watching."

This government, quite simply, likes to control the message.

It also likes to attempt to control public debate and opinion.’

• Craig Westcott (The Newfoundland Post) and David Cochrane (CBC Provincial Affairs reporters) have both been cut off from interview opportunities with the Premier, the latter for only a short period but the former on permanent “ignore”.
• Ryan Cleary and the crew at the Independent who fell from grace and then garnered gobs of provincial advertising cash only after they slacked off their government reporting.  [Why exactly did Ivan Morgan stop writing about Danny? – ed.]
• Max Ruelokke, head of the province’s offshore regulatory board whose only “crime” was to win two merit based competitions against Williams’ preferred candidate.
• The judge in Ruelokke v. the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador who weighed the evidence and found in favour of Max Ruelokke getting the job, calling government’s actions “callous” as he did so.
• Madam Justice Margaret Cameron, who commented negatively on the curious amnesia afflicting some of the witnesses at an inquiry into one of the province’s most serious health scandals.
• Joyce Hancock, formerly head of the province’s status of women council, who expressed concern over a series of issues surrounding women in the senior public service.
• NASA, for launching a Titan 4B booster as they have done for decades.  [Okay that one wasn’t a direct attack but it was a totally loopy, beyond-all-reason, panic-attacky tirade of silly proportions.]

And that’s just the bigger ones that have actually made into some of the local media.  There are at least two more your humble e-scribbler can relate involving reporters.  There are more to come, undoubtedly as people shrug off the fear.

Williams complaints the day after the Randy meltdown certainly followed in the same vein.  As with the clash with Simms over health care, Williams is evidently highly frustrated at news stories which convey something other than the manufactured image from his publicity machine and the scripted comments of his open line callers and online anonymous army. 

Voicing that frustration won’t make the stories go away.  If anything, the resurgent CBC Here and Now, for example, the source of Williams’ annoyance over health care will just keep piling on the accurate stories of problems here and there in the administration. 

This is the normal course of things for any government and any politician.  This is what news organizations do.  To complain about it is to complain about dogs barking. 

Williams has been lucky thus far to have had a relatively free ride and precious little serious criticism until recently.  Still, he has liked to complain from the start about the media and public attention.  He complained bitterly about attention paid to the lengthy process of getting his private business affairs into a blind trust.  Anyone recall the silliness about his being reduced to living on an allowance from the trustees?  

The better part of a decade after he got into politics, the guy who says he has a thick skin, actually demonstrates time and again that he doesn’t.  He needs to get over it and himself.  Williams garnered more, negative media attention for himself over the racket with Randy than he any positive coverage with what should have been a triumphant day of news about another offshore deal.

before leaving this whole issue of childishness, thin skins, and all the rest,  we shouldn’t forget another Premier of a decade or so ago who was fond of expressing his displeasure with people who dared contradict him. 

One story involved a very prominent local business leader and a disagreement over hydro development or some such.  The comments came in a very public way at Marble Mountain.  Another involved a local editor and accusations that the editor’s insufficient endowment were the driving force behind his writing.  As the story goes, the line was something like the only reason you are taking me on is because you have a small dick.

The impact of that sort of childish behaviour wasn’t readily apparent since Newfoundland and Labrador is a small community used to suppressing open confrontation.  Still, the opinions do get expressed. 

Nasty - and false - rumours circulate, whispered from one to another with glee.  Even those stories relayed above  may have been embellished, with time, as they made it to your humble e-scribbler.  At a certain point, their veracity is not as important as the fact they get circulated with great vigour in the community, not in the news media, but over the dinner table and on the links.

The mighty will be humbled if they go too far.

And humbled that one was on the day he left federal politics.  There were no soft questions at all and no one was concerned about his legacy after a long career in public service.  Every reporter in the hastily called news conference took turns to slam Brian Tobin with every hard question they had about his departure.  They’d been saving stuff up, as it seemed, and on that day, they used it.

Voters used the frustration they’d saved up as well, in a couple of districts, in a by-election not long after.  They humbled the people from the same party who carried on after the Big Guy had left the scene.  The sins of the Father, as it were.

People made a change and they changed for a bunch of reasons, not the least of which was a desire to get right of the behaviour of the crowd that they had before.

How quickly some people forget.

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Obscuring the next frontier

Offshore gas development is the next frontier, according to what natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale told delegates to the NOIA conference this week.

The Labrador land sale last year garnered some strong interest, as it turned out and that was, at the time rightly heralded as a strong indication natural gas could be the next major offshore play.

One of the companies that has moved in is Repsol:

Repsol is also a majority partner in the Canaport liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility in Saint John, N.B., and the plant will be operational in a matter of days.

"We're looking for supply for that facility," said [Repisol vice-president Denis]Marcoux.

If gas is the next frontier, there are two large obstacles that have to be overcome.  Neither is the technical issue of how to exploit the gas.

One huge problem is the lack of a natural gas royalty regime.  The provincial government started looking at one in the late 1990s.  The current administration inherited their work, produced a draft version that wound up in the energy plan in 2007 and that’s the last it’s been heard of.

Word is the operators had problems with it, but that’s pretty normal for these sorts of things.

In the meantime, given that government can apparently only handle one major issue at a time, odds are good the thing has been languishing, waiting for first Hebron and then Hibernia South to get finished.

That’s despite the Premier’s assurance last year both would be done by the end of 2008.  As it turned out, Hibernia South took another year just to get to MOU and then will take the better part of another year still to get the formal agreements ready.

Your serial government continues to function just at it has since the beginning.

No royalty regime means that even if a company was interested in developing an existing find, they have no way of knowing what the costs are. That level of uncertainty makes companies with the cash to invest leery of starting something.

That’s something that can’t be easily dismissed. Having a royalty regime made it possible for the companies to start thinking hard about Hebron a decade before the deal was done and that was at a time when oil prices weren’t forecast to 50 bucks a barrel.

Heck, some companies haven’t been willing to commit to drilling on gas prospects because they simply can’t forecast the development costs even in a preliminary fashion.  They may bang some seismic in the meantime but no one is poking exploration holes and without those holes, nothing is really moving anywhere.

The other obstacle is the provincial government’s attitude. 

Under Williams Mod 1, there could be no development without tons of add-ons. He said in 2005 that he didn’t want to see gas shipped down the coast in some “God-damn boat.”

That’s pretty much what Repsol has in mind and that would definitely bring their LNG tankers up on the rocks that were sticking pretty high out of the water in 2005.

Those rocks might still be sticking out of the water or the tide might have risen.  Right now, the policy fog is obscuring natural gas as the next frontier offshore Newfoundland and Labrador.

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Hibernia Southern Extension MOU Assessment, Part II: Equity and industrial benefits

[Part I  Royalty]

Equity

According to the backgrounder released on Tuesday, the provincial government’s oil company will acquire a 10% interest in only that portion of the extension to be developed through tie-backs. 

That has been described as covering 170 million barrels, however, as with Hebron that figure may become smaller in the final agreement.

The acquisition price is $30 million however the backgrounder provided no estimates the development costs, operating costs or other costs associated with the project.

According to some sources, part of the delay in reaching the memorandum of understanding came from re-unitizing the existing licenses, especially EL 1093.  There are seven interest-holders in that license with four of them having less than 10%.

As with Hebron, details of the acquisition agreement will not be made public.  As with Hebron, information crucial to a thorough assessment of the acquisition and the provincial government’s share will remain hidden from public scrutiny.

Industrial and local benefits

Aside from existing benefits arrangements under the Hibernia development plan and offshore regulatory board regulations, no new or enhanced local benefits are contained in the backgrounder.

The project will be developed using a combination of slant drilling from the existing Hibernia platform (50 million barrels) and sub-sea tie-backs to the platform.  This was not a part of the 2006 application. 

However, planned expansion of the Hibernia GBS appears to have been shelved. This significantly reduces the potential amount of local work available.  The project is smaller than what was suggested last June when the Premier indicated a Hibernia South deal would be in place by the end of 2008. 

"We fully expect Hibernia South to be concluded by the end of this calendar year," Williams told more than 700 people attending the annual offshore conference hosted by the Newfoundland and Labrador Oil and Gas Industries Association (NOIA).

As it turned out, the MOU was signed in mid 2009 and final agreements are not expected until early 2010. That would be three years after the provincial government vetoed the development and two years after the oil companies originally planned to start production.

Local companies already have demonstrated expertise in supply and in fabrication of sub-sea components.  Thus, local companies should be able to secure fabrication and related work on the project.

This is particular interesting since two of the four reasons given for vetoing the development plan in 2007 related to local benefits:

• The province needs more information on what options exist for other modes of development to extract the oil from Hibernia South. This may have implications for overall benefits.
• The lack of a Benefits Plan Amendment. This is a departure from the normal process and the CNLOPB did not require it in the "interest of expediency."

Through the MOU, the provincial government also accepts the offshore board’s position in the voted application with respect to local benefits (affirmative action, research and development and education and training). 

This is significant since these aspects of local benefits were cited as an area of concern for the provincial government  with the board’s approval of the plan.  In a subsequent exchange of correspondence energy minister Kathy Dunderdale accused the offshore board of failing in its responsibilities for local benefits yet it appears the government has ultimately accepted what the companies initially proposed and board approved. 

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Hibernia Southern Extension MOU Assessment, Part I: Royalty - some potential added cash plus a cap

While Danny William’s radio tirade/meltdown is rapidly eclipsing his own good news announcement nationally, there is interest in assessing the details of the Hibernia South Extension memorandum of understanding based on the official news release and news reports on the day of the announcement.

Caveats

As with Hebron, the final agreement may yield some details which were not readily apparent when the MOU was announced.   As well, and as with Hebron, key portions of the deal are likely to be hidden from public view.   With that said, we still have enough information to make some observations about the proposed development deal.  In this first post, we will look at the royalty regime.

General

Overall, this agreement represents a transformation from Williams Mod 1 to Williams Mod 2 in the government’s approach to offshore oil development.

Williams Mod 1 (pre-2o06) was essentially a variation pre-1984 provincial government thinking and emphasised:

• increasing local benefits especially through forced development of refining and downstream production;
• some additional revenue from federal transfers, and
• an undefined “equity” interest which is essentially analogous to the old petroleum corporation.

Williams Mod 2 (post- 2006) places the greatest emphasis on additional government revenue through the most obvious source:  enhanced royalties. This is especially clear in the Simms encounter where the Premier states:

The reason we’re caught up in the oil, it’s not the oil, it’s the black gold that’s out there, it’s not the petroleum, it’s not the oil and gas, it’s the revenue that it brings to us, so that we can deal with problems in the fishery, so that we can take care of the Abitibi workers, so that we can build new hospitals and new long terms care facilities, so that we can build new schools, so that we can lead the country in poverty reduction, and it goes on and on and on. Surely you – presumably – run a municipality. You must know the importance of revenue, and where that revenue comes from – if it comes from business, whatever form of business it is, or if it comes from residential real estate, it goes into your coffers now so you can do all the wonderful things that need to be done. [Emphasis added]

Government-induced infrastructure has been effectively abandoned as evident in both Hebron and Hibernia South and the equity portion has also been capped artificially at 10%.  In Hibernia South, the second GBS or other production facility has been discarded for the most economical production method (slant drilling from the original GBS and tie-backs to the original GBS).

This effectively adopts the philosophy that guided resource development after 1985 and is best seen in the 1990 Hibernia agreement and in the subsequent developments at White Rose and Terra Nova.

As much as Danny Williams may like to complain about those who offer alternative views to his own, this basic approach has been noted before – including in this corner – as an alternative to Williams Mod 1. 

The easiest, most efficient means of enhancing government revenue is through adjustments to the royalty regime.   Revenue is needed to meet the demands for program spending and infrastructure development today. Regular readers of Bond Papers will recognise the refrain.

Hibernia Southern Extension Royalty Regime

The base for the three-part royalty is the existing Hibernia royalty regime as concluded in 1990 and modified in 2000. 

This sets the rate after simple payout (achieved a few months early) at 30% Tier 1 royalty with a further 12.5% Tier 2 royalty triggered by profitability.

This is the royalty rate – 42.5% -  that produces the bulk of the cash.

The royalty regime for the southern extension is cut into three parts.  There is no explanation as to why the rate is structured this way. The backgrounder provided with the news release does not explain the structure clearly.

Part I:    For the 50 million barrels or so that will be drilled directly from the Hibernia gravity base structure, there is the 42.5%  that already exists in the Hibernia royalty regime established in 1990 and modified in 2000.

There is no price trigger for this since the original royalty regime did not tie provincial government revenues to oil prices directly.

Part II:  For the portion of the project that is under the original production License 1001 (PL 1001), the basis is the original Hibernia royalty regime (maximum 42.5%, not tied to price).

In addition there is a further 7.5% royalty when prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) are above US$50.  Above WTI at US$70 there is an additional 5%. 

There is a cap on the royalty however: 

Should supplementary royalty payout be achieved under the terms of the original Hibernia contract be achieved, the top rate will be 50 per cent.

It would appear that once the project has triggered the Tier 1 and Tier 2 royalties (42.5%),  only an additional 7.5% is available beyond that irrespective of price. 

Part III:   There is a similar 50% cap in the new areas, i.e. the ones covered by PL 1005 and Exploration License 1093 (EL 1093).  The cap is achieved by reducing the incremental royalty tied to price (WTI at US$50) from 7.5% to 2.5%.

Observations

Overall, this represents a complex arrangement that modifies the existing royalty regime slightly. The complexity may be due in part to the highly diversified interests in the three licenses, especially EL1093.

In many pricing scenarios, then, the maximum available royalty from what is described here as Part II of the regime  would appear to be the same as under the existing Hibernia regime, i.e. 42.5%.

On the face of it, the Part II and Part III royalty structures offer an identical outcome.  Additional information would be needed to explain how the structure works and why it is in place.

The provincial government revenue figure offered in the announcement  - $10 billion – is apparently derived almost entirely by applying the existing Hibernia Royalty Regime to an environment in which oil prices are considerably above the average price that existing during the initial phase of the project.

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Money Update:  Premier Danny Williams told CBC’s David Cochrane today that the estimate of $10 billion of provincial revenue from Hibernia South is based on an estimated average oil price of $83 over the next decade.

There is something suspicious about the government calculation though since Williams claimed on Tuesday that five times as much oil left in Hibernia as in Hibernia South would net the province only slightly less cash than Hibernia proper even though both projects use essentially the same royalty regime:

We expect a further $13 billion from the remaining main field production and this extension adds an estimated $10 billion more in revenue for the province…

Randy Simms: the wind beneath Danny’s wings

When Danny Williams rails against relentless negativity, he knows of what he speaks.

The guy who built the early part of his career tearing down anything that came before him now finds it a wee bit uncomfortable when someone dares to suggest there could be other things to gain the Premier’s attention besides oil.

The audio from the Premier’s five minute tantrum this morning is rapidly spreading to every available media out there.

People are shaking their heads and many are laughing.

They shouldn’t.

It isn’t funny when a guy who should be proud of his accomplishments instead launches into a childish tirade on international radio.

It wasn’t funny at all considering that Simms is above all else a decent and fair journalist. His comments earlier weren’t out of line and Williams’ tirade is built entirely out of his own invention not anything Simms said.

For those who missed it, here’s the audio along with some stills to give you something to look at.

Meeker Nails it Update:  the whole thing transcribed.

When you’re done, go check out an eerily similar rant from Joe Smallwood aimed at a much younger Randy Simms.

Smallwood rant mp3

 

 

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You couldn’t make this crap update:  Best line uttered in the spittle-fest is the reference to “hard-core” infrastructure.

Apparently government spending is now like pornography.  it comes in hard-core and soft-core versions.

What’s the difference, you ask?

Well, in soft-core the building is simulated by actors and there is no actual construction.

Wonder what that makes the stimulus package where almost half the projects started some time ago and some have been the subject of multiple announcements?

Hibernia South memorandum of understanding

There’s a non-binding memorandum of understanding to develop new areas of the Hibernia field with a final agreement expected in early 2010. 

Hibernia South includes 220 million barrels of recoverable oil.  There is an estimated 1.24 billion barrels of proven and probable recoverable oil reserves in the Hibernia project, including the Hibernia South area, and as much as 1.9 billion barrels covering proven, probable and possible reserves.

Proven reserves are 782 million barrels of which 605 million barrels have been produced up to April 30, 2009.

That means there is 640 million barrels of proven and probable reserves to exploit and as much as 1.295 million barrels including possible reserves.

The existing Hibernia project has also hit simple payout, raising provincial royalties under the Hibernia royalty regime to 30%.  That will deliver additional cash to the provincial treasury in the current fiscal year that wasn’t previously accounted for.

The MOU also contains a settlement of a dispute on calculation of transportation costs for the Hibernia project. The understanding adopts the provincial government interpretation retroactive to first oil in 1997. 

According to the news release, this understanding is responsible for the attainment of simple payout.  However, in 2007,  estimates existed that the project would achieve payout in 2009 or 2010 based on production levels and anticipated oil prices at the time unconnected to either project expansion or the transportation cost interpretation dispute.

In the wake of failed talks on the Hebron project in 2006, the Williams administration vetoed a development application for a portion of Hibernia South. That redevelopment plan was resubmitted in 2008, as anticipated by the Canada Hibernia Holding Corporation in 2007.

There were some indications the provincial government planned to seek development of Hibernia South as a new project with a new production platform.  The MOU announced on Tuesday calls for the production methods originally proposed by the operators using the existing Hibernia platform.

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More to follow on MOU announcement including a review of the royalty regime.

Freedom from information: lack of briefing notes for minister called “bizarre” by senior government official

An unnamed senior public sector manager has termed a move by government to eliminate briefing notes for ministers “bizarre”.

The official is quoted in a post by Telegram blogger Geoff Meeker.  The unidentified official spoke only on condition of anonymity.

“I don't think it's possible to keep up to speed without a briefing book,” said the person, who has worked at some of the highest levels of the public service.

“It will make it very difficult to understand, in retrospect, why certain decisions were made - very dangerous for the staff who must execute them and very problematic if one needs to retrace and do a course-correction on something that's gone off the rails. Without briefing books, corporate memory is very much reduced and future government decisions rendered more difficult.”

The comment came after another Telegram story (not online) in which Joan Burke, government house leader and minister of a newly created child, youth and family services department, said that she had received no briefing notes when taking over her new portfolio. Burke told the Telegram’s Rob Antle that

“I didn’t want to be handed a binder with 500 to 1,000 sheets of paper to try to determine what’s important and what’s not, and what’s current and what I need on my radar.”

As Meeker points out, Burke’s attitude may have little to do with what she described as her desire to get down to work.

Burke was embroiled in a controversy last year over the hiring of a new president for Memorial University.  Details of the minister’s involvement became embarrassing when the Liberal opposition office obtained copies of government records through the Access to Information and Protection of Privacy Act and provided them to local media.

The documents including e-mails and briefing notes that included questions for Burke to use during her screening interviews with the two finalists selected by the university’s hiring process.  Burke rejected both candidates.

Briefing notes have also proved embarrassing for other cabinet ministers.

A note prepared for Burke’s successor in November 2008 on financial implications of “autonomy” for Grenfell College from Memorial University, another controversial policy from Burke’s tenure in education, was virtually completed deleted before being released under the province’s open records laws.  While promised two years ago, there is still no sign of the enabling legislation.

During the Cameron inquiry into the hormone receptor scandal, health minister Ross Wiseman stated under oath that he had not read briefing notes on the issue when he took over the portfolio.  As CBC reported,

… Wiseman said he did not have the opportunity to read briefing notes about the cancer testing after he was sworn in as health minister, because he was busy tackling other pressing issues and preparing for the annual budget.

Opposition politicians have also claimed that ministers apparently no longer receive briefing notes to use in preparation for the House of Assembly.

Meeker’s public sector manager also described some of the concerns about the new policy which would see the elimination of any paper trail of documents and backgrounders for ministers. 

“Without briefing documents, the public can never really know what grounds decisions were made on - cutting the foundation out from under transparency and accountability, not to mention history - how will future generations understand the story of this government and this time without primary research sources?

“This puts a great burden on senior and mid-level public officials to keep good records in their own briefing books and black books. These would be accessible under ATIPP, but that leaves the paper trail with the officials, not the Minister. And if they don't keep good records, well - we all heard during the Cameron inquiry how difficult it is for these busy, busy people [cabinet ministers and political staff] to recall details from 6 or 12 months ago.”

That last point is particularly cogent:  at one point during the inquiry, an exasperated commissioner Justice Margaret Cameron commented that many of the witnesses seemed to have difficulty recalling anything at all. 

The premier's chief of staff, Brian Crawley, was sent an e-mail in July, 2005 that warned of a major story about to break involving breast cancer testing mistakes.

But Crawley testified he can't remember getting the e-mail or even talking to anyone in the premier's office — including the premier — about it.

"I really don't remember anything about those early days at all," he said.

Judge Margaret Cameron asked Crawley whether he remembered any of the events of July and he responded, "No."

"You don't remember seeing anything about this until the story broke in the Independent [Newfoundland & Labrador Independent newspaper] and you don't even really remember reading the Independent story," she said.

Crawley was not alone and that exchange prompted an angry premier Danny Williams to criticise Cameron over the remark, as cbc.ca/nl reported:

When Crawley answered one question about what he would have done in a situation, Cameron replied, "Well, I'm getting a lot of that, 'This is what I would've done,' but nobody ever remembers seemingly having done much."

On Friday, Williams fired back.

"I have to say I was disappointed. I was disappointed as I watched Madame Justice Cameron show disdain for a professional witness who was before her, giving testimony, honestly, forthright, under oath, to the best of his or her ability," Williams told reporters.

Meeker’s post and the comments by the unnamed official echo concerns identified in Donald Savoie’s recent book on the erosion of accountability at White hall and in Ottawa.

In Court government: the collapse of accountability in Canada and the United Kingdom, Savoie documents a similar practice of eliminating briefing notes and other official written documents in order to avoid the access to information laws.

In addition to the move to eliminate a paper trail, Savoie also notes concerns among politicians with whistleblower legislation as part of a larger trend away from government openness and internal and external accountability.

Savoie also points to the appearance of unofficial practices within the administration of government that are also designed to avoid disclosure under access to information laws.  For example, one study cited by Savoie found that requests from politicians and the media took longer to process than those from others even though there did not appear to be any particular difference in one request from another.   

Similar efforts by officials to skirt open records laws have already been noted in Newfoundland and Labrador.

For example, officials have invented a concept called non-responsive records to refer to documents which are apparently covered by an access request but which are not  released. One of the Burke e-mails on Memorial University, for example, includes a deletion marked “non-responsive” rather than use the official requirement to cite a specific section of the access law under which a deletion is made.

Perhaps the most notorious example was a claim that records did not exist even though the Premier and other officials acknowledged that they did.

In another case, access to documents was denied on the grounds that the review was ongoing.  The request had not been for a final report but for documents relating to the study and an accounting of its costs.

Officials have also been able to avoid disclosure based on questionable claims about the scope of the request.

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RBC on NL economy: strong headwinds

RBC Economics has revised downward its 2009 forecast for the Newfoundland and Labrador with the economy expected to shrink by 3.5%.

That’s the largest forecast drop in GDP in the country and compares to the 1.9% shrinkage forecast in March 2009.

RBC also forecasts the province will have one of the  top economies in the country in 2010.

However, if you look at the chart, virtually all provinces will experience growth of nearly 3.0% in 2010 as the effects of all that government stimulus spending takes hold.

That wouldn’t be entirely surprising since Newfoundland and Labrador is also spending among the largest amounts in the country on stimulus as a percentage of gross domestic product.

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More to follow update:

From another RBC Economics report released on June 5:

• Employment in the province is expected to be down by almost 7%.  that's the biggest drop of any province.
• While our housing prices and starts are tops in the country, the resale price is expected to drop about 15%.  That's right in the middle of the pile. 
• Manufacturing sales are expected to be down about 26%.  That's the biggest drop in the country.
• Retail sales are forecast to be up by the highest amount in the country.  Most places are dropping.
  

RBC expects 2010 to be relatively good again based on increases in mineral production, the expanded White Rose project and government infrastructure spending. Here's how they view the current situation:

On the resources side, softer demand and the resulting nose-dive in the prices for commodities following last summer’s peaks have negatively affected energy and metals production in the province. Iron ore mining operations cut output by nearly 19% in the first quarter compared to a year ago and rapidly rising stocks would indicate that they will further slash it in the near term. Market-related downtime is also affecting nickel production. In the case of crude oil, rapid maturation of the province’s existing offshore oil fields will keep output on an accelerated downward track until late this year or early next when the White Rose project expansion enters into operation. Crude oil production in Newfoundland and Labrador fell by more than 4% year-over-year during the first quarter.

There are two things that should be noted.

First of all, next year's return to growth in GDP is driven by government spending.  While it's great that government had the cash to throw into a stimulus package, the amount of cash on hand is finite and will likely be consumed over the next two years.

If the economy doesn't rebound as expected, then 2011 and beyond may be different especially since the provincial government won't have the ready piles of cash to toss around.

At the same time, demand for increases in other sectors will start biting into the government treasury.  That twin challenge - increased demand and decreased resources to meet the demand - could become even more pronounced if the drop in oil production that will take place is coupled with soft energy markets and lower than forecast resource prices.

Second of all, and following out of the prospects of recovery, it must be borne in mind that the provincial economy is tied directly and indirectly to the American one. The prospects for a major turn around locally are very much tied to recovery south of the border.  Concerns about that prospect continue. RBC is forecasting a turnaround in the US economy in 2010.

JSS project may be scrapped

National Defence is looking at all the options for the troubled Joint Support Ship Contract including scrapping the whole thing, according to the Ottawa Citizen.

There’s also a possibility the project will be restarted from scratch with a new project definition.

That would take seven years to get the new ship to the navy.

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The drunk driving sentence that never was

Local media outlets reported on Friday that a man had been sentenced in Grand bank to two years in jail and the loss of his driving license for 99 years.

cbc.ca/nl carried it and the thing has garnered a huge number of comments. Ditto the Telegram although there are only 14 comments there. It made the voice of the cabinet minister as well.

Courtesy of Canadian Press the story went national and turned up in at least one newspaper, the Edmonton Sun.

The thing is online as well a liveleak.com and a local Edmonton bulletin board/forum.

Wonderful story.

Except for one small problem:  it isn’t entirely accurate.

Your humble e-scribbler thought the story sounded suspicious since the sentence of 99 years sounded a bit American.

An inquiry turned up the full details and another inquiry turned up the news release issued by the Burin district office of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police that started the thing.

Here’s the release:

Impaired driver receives 2 year prison sentence and prohibited from driving for 99 years

On Thursday, June 11th, 2009 a 47 year old Burin man received a two year prison sentence and is prohibited from driving for 99 years as a result of an incident that was investigated by the Burin Peninsula District RCMP in the community of Burin on Wednesday, June 10th, 2009.

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For further information please contact the undersigned, …

Okay, for starters, the release should have ended with –30-, if anything, not –34- but that’s neither here nor there for our purposes.

News media can’t be faulted for taking what they were given by an official source and using it.

So here’s the fuller and more accurate story.

The RCMP arrested the fellow on Wednesday after receiving a call about an impaired driver.  They managed to nab him fairly quickly  - after a brief chase - and he appeared in court on Thursday.

As it turned out he had five prior convictions for impaired driving and in the most recent one had been sentenced in Nova Scotia provincial court in Cape Breton to a 10 year suspension of his driving privileges.  He was charged in Grand Bank with impaired driving, refusing the breathalyser and driving while prohibited.

In the jigs and the reels of it all, the Crown and defence counsels worked out a plea agreement by which the fellow received two years in jail and a lifetime prohibition from driving. The whole thing – from offence to arrest to conviction  - took less than 24 hours. That, plus the back story are way better than what actually hit the news, at least it’s way better in the opinion of your humble e-scribbler.

So where’d the “99” thing come from?

Certainly not from anyone in the court room, as it turned out.

The form used by the court staff to record this type of sentence gives space for two digits.  A five year suspension would be entered as “05” and a 10 year suspension would be “10” and so on.  Since there is no way numerically to figure out how long a life time suspension actually is, the court system codes a lifetime suspension as “99”, that being the largest two digit number there is and one that wouldn’t be confused with anything else. 99 is the max under the coding system and lifetime is the max under the legal system.

Pretty simple.

But someone reading the court form only and who  - as it turns out – was not familiar with the coding system dutifully bashed out a short news release that included the sentence as being two years in jail plus a 99 year suspended license. 

He also apparently didn’t have time to get the more complete story.  That said, the story as presented is rightfully garnering praise for the police and the court from the people making comments on the CBC and Telegram stories.

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Global oil round-up

Some randomly selected articles from around the world on the current state of the oil industry.

1.  Omani oil revenues in the first four months of 2009 are down about 50% from the same time last year, according to Reuters.

2.  Expect a downward oil price correction shortly, according analysts quoted in the Edmonton Journal.   They put the drop to the low 60s or high 50s a barrel.  [Hint;  they’re conservative;  think lower still]  Among the factors cited:  weak demand, new production coming on stream and tons of oil currently in storage onshore and offshore that doesn’t have a market yet.

3.  Of course,the peak oil cultists are still predicting the opposite so they see any lowering as just a temporary calm before the Apocalypse hits.

4.  Scan to the bottom of this article on a recent meeting of  PetroCaribe and you’ll see reference to Cuban oil potential:

In the case of Cuba, Venezuela's financial and energy support is critical to supporting the Castro regime. Energy dependence has long been Cuba's Achilles' heel.

Havana used to depend on the east bloc for cut-rate oil, and plunged into economic chaos and blackouts when it was cut off after 1989. Now it depends on crude from ally Venezuela.

Cuba is negotiating oil exploration and production deals with Russia, China and Angola, with Moscow shaping up as the partner that could make the communist island energy self-sufficient, if its untapped offshore reserves pan out.

If it can achieve energy independence, Cuba may in the blink of an eye turn from a cash-strapped developing nation into a flush oil exporter, possibly projecting its current regime years into the future.

Cuban authorities in October announced that the Caribbean nation's crude reserves were more than double what had been thought, and now were estimated to be about 20 billion barrels.

5. OPEC oil production rose slightly in May, up again from a slight rise in April. Compliance with the OPEC production quota dropped again in May with Venezuela, Iran and Angola exceeding their quotas.  Go back to the article on PetroCaribe and you’ll see Venezuela is in the middle of a little local power play involving oil.  Venezuela runs an oil rent-to-own scheme in which countries in the region can buy Venezuelan crude on credit. 

6.  Still, OPEC lowered its oil demand forecast for 2009, which only makes sense in the current real market.

7.  While there may be some dispute as to whether Cuban oil potential is 20 billion barrels or five billion barrels, there’s no doubt interest is growing in developing the Caribbean nation’s offshore resources.

Either way, Cuba’s oil is attracting the attention of oil companies from around the globe. At the moment, Spain’s Repsol, Brazil’s Petrobras, and Norway’s StatoilHydro are overseeing exploratory drilling in the Gulf of Mexico. India, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Venezuela also have signed deals with Cuba.

Maybe Cuban oil potential is behind signs of a thaw in American-Cuban relations.

8.  Closer to home, there’s the NOIA oil and gas conference next week and with it, the annual speculation that Premier Danny Williams might say something earth-shattering despite the fact that making an announcement there would  involve sharing the spotlight with NOIA.

He hasn’t done anything like it before but people still like to stoke the hype.  Last year CBC got suckered into the whole thing in a big way;  this year it’s the Telly’s turn on a smaller scale and focusing on Hibernia South.

Now if the Hebron thing is anything to go by, what comes out the end could be a whole lot less than the hype suggested and some of the details have some really disturbing implications.  Of course, hype is more fun than details.

9.  Speaking of the NOIA conference, the theme this year focuses on the potential for the Arctic.

There’s the global perspective:

SESSION 2: TECHNOLOGIES FOR ARCTIC ENVIRONMENTS 2:30 p.m.

Russia’s Shtokman Project: an Update
Sergey Smityushenko, First Deputy Governor of Murmansk Oblast, Russia

Exploration and Production Options for the Alaskan Offshore
Mike Paulin, President, IMV Projects Atlantic

Pushing the Envelopment: R&D Advances for Arctic Oil and Gas Development
Jim Bruce, Deputy Director Ice Engineering, C-CORE

Canadian Frontiers Operating in Harsh Environments
Peter Haverson, General Manager, Global Drilling, International and Offshore, Petro-Canada

And the local one:

SESSION 4: FARTHER, DEEPER, COLDER 2:30 p.m.

Chevron's Growth Strategy for Atlantic Canada
Mark MacLeod, Atlantic Canada Manager, Chevron Canada Limited

Greenland - A Steppingstone to Arctic Exploration
Gregors Dam, Chief Geologist, Dong Energy

Playing to our Strengths
Mark Shrimpton, Principal and Practice Director, Socio-Economic Services, Jacques Whitford Stantec

Defining the Outer Limits of Canada's Continental Shelf in the Atlantic and Arctic Oceans Under the Law of the Sea
Jacob Verhoef, Director, UNCLOS Program, Natural Resources Canada

That last session is one to watch since the issue of  oil development at and beyond the edge of the continental shelf has implications for any developments in the Orphan Basin offshore Newfoundland.

And for those who are missing their fix of the government’s favourite economist, don’t worry.  NOIA is doing it’s bit to keep on good terms with government. 

Not only is there a reception at The Rooms, but Wade Locke is the lead speaker in the last session.  He’ll be talking up “Offshore Oil & Gas, the Economic Crisis & the Local Economy”.

If he sticks to his more recent lines, this should be fun.  Prediction:  He won’t be hyping non-existent aluminum smelter projects just as the demand for aluminum collapsed.   He might talk about the current economic situation but he might have to be more cautious about undermining the provincial government’s “we live in a bubble, all is well” talking point since the last time Locke’s comments were reported accurately, he got upset.

Right after Wade will be the provincial energy corporation’s Jim Keating who will, in all likelihood, be talking about the Lower Churchill.

Of course, that’s pretty much all there has been about the project:

• Project sanction was supposed to take place in 2009.  Then that got slid back by a mere six months. Now we don’t hear much talk of LC start dates at all.
• The land claims agreement with the Innu Nation – crucial to any development – seems to be deader than a doornail despite the initial hype about it.
• We do hear talk of slinging power lines through a UNESCO World Heritage site, something once described as the “most serious threat” to the park.
• There have also been contradictory statements about the future of the Holyrood generating plant.

And that’s just some of the stuff that hasn’t really been covered in any great detail in local media on the most talked about paper project in history.

Even if the Premier doesn’t lead off with anything Earth-shattering, there’s a prospect Jim and Wade can finish the NOIA conference with something really newsworthy.

 

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The lesson from Nova Scotia

In Newfoundland and Labrador these past few days some local adherents of the Orange Creed – that’s New Democrats, not Protestants or Dutch – have been buoyed by the success of their Nova Scotia brothers and sisters.

Others have been talking about the prospect of local New Democrats doing the same thing here that Darrell Dexter and his party did in persuading Nova Scotians to take a chance on voting NDP.

Therein lies the first lesson local New Democrats should learn:  Darrell and the crew didn’t ask Nova Scotians to “take a chance” on anything.  They presented a professional, credible alternative to the other two parties. 

There was no chance involved.

There was a choice.

A few years ago, the Nova Scotian Dippers were like other labourites.  Being a New Democrat was to be part of a social cause or a social group, not a bunch who seriously thought of winning an election.  That’s not unusual. Other labour parties have gone through the same thing.  The Labour Party in Britain once cherished ideological purity over electoral success.  So too did New Democratic parties across Canada.

But, like those other labourites elsewhere,  the Nova Scotian New Democrats decided it was better to be in office than standing impotent on the sidelines with their ideological purity intact.

That’s the second lesson the local New Democrats need to learn:  there is no substitute for power.  You can have all the lovely ideas you want but if you don’t win the election it’s just as well to order another round at the Ship and explain your theory to the bottom of a pint of Guinness.

You get to win by organizing.  Find volunteers.  Get people who know how to organize. Raise money and put it in the bank.  Find candidates.  Reach out and bring new people and new ideas into the fold.

Inevitably, there will be a crowd who will get pissed at the loss of ideological purity, but that’s the price of shedding the sack-cloth and the stench of burning martyr and donning the mantle of government.

Equally inevitably, for every old bolshevik who abandons ship for the Greens, there’ll be two or more new people who either weren’t in politics before or who defect from another team.

The two major parties don’t get elected because people vote the way their parents and grandparents did.  That’s a convenient excuse dreamed up by someone who just can’t face facts. 

The two major parties get elected because they hold onto a cadre of supporters and then add on a whole bunch of people who change their votes from time to time. The other two major parties appeal to voters with the platforms and promises by finding out what voters are looking for and then offering it to them.  Put another way, they get elected by building coalitions of people who have similar views or who can find enough reasons to vote for one team over another. 

That’s basically what politics is about:  bringing people together and that should be what New Democrats do naturally.

But they don’t.  Instead, they try to not just distinguish themselves but drive a wedge between themselves and voters.  New Democrats of the old school make it seem like it is a sign of moral weakness to have voted for the other two parties at some point.  Before one can vote New Democrat one must first  admit the sins of ones voting past.

That’s the essence of that common NDP refrain that the other two parties are all alike.  Predictably, it turns voters off.

Think about that for a second and then look at two New Democrat leaders.

Think about Jack Layton, he of the “they are all alike” school.

And then think about Darrell Dexter.

If you can perceive the differences, and you are a New Democrat, then you are well on your way to learning the Lesson from Nova Scotia. You are well on your way to bringing a genuinely competitive alternative to voters.

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What a difference reality makes

When the provincial government announced its $800 million capital works “stimulus” package back in February, they claimed it would create 5,400 “person years” of employment.  Well, they claimed lots of things but let’s just focus on the work claim.

Now for those who don’t know, a “person year” is basically the same as one person working for a year.  Two people working for six months each is one “person year”.

Here are the quotes from the news release:

• It is anticipated the investment plan will create or sustain approximately 5,400 person years of employment this year.
• “…Approximately 5,400 person years throughout the province should go a long way in accomplishing just that…”  [That’s a quote from Hisself]

Note here that neither of them was anywhere near the front end of the release.  The Danny Williams quote is actually almost at the bitter end of not only his release but also the gigantic paragraph’s worth of words purportedly uttered by his prime ministerial lips.

That was February.

Fast forward to June.

Statistics Canada released figures showing that between May 2008 and May 2009, about 12,000 people found themselves sans paycheque in the youngest, coolest, hippest province in Canada. 

With the fishery shut down in many parts of the province upwards of another 10,000 people are in jeopardy of not having much – if any income – this year.

And then less than a week later – and totally by coincidence, of course – the provincial government issues an “update” on its fiscal plan.

Suddenly, the plan contains twice as much cash as announced back in February  and lo, and behold the claim of job creation has mushroomed.

Right there, in the very first sentence, the one where supposedly the most important information goes, there is this:

Provincial infrastructure projects totalling $1.6 billion will be tendered this fiscal year, creating an estimated 15,000 jobs (some seasonal) and providing significant economic stimulus to the economy of Newfoundland and Labrador.

Double the money and triple the job creation.

And there’s no more talk of this wussie thing, the “person year”.   Now there’s a word everyone understands:  “jobs”.

15,000 of them, we are told, right there in the very beginning of the news release so no one will miss it;  not buried a raft of  paragraphs down from the top – like say when workers comp has a potential identity theft problem – but right there in front, large as life. 

First line. 

The “lede” they call it in news circles.

With only the little bracketed aside that “some” will be seasonal.

The rest of this news release is also full of numbers.  Lots of them.  Bag fulls in fact.  So many numbers that the release must have been slow going down the wires what with all the added weight, especially right there at the front end.

But that job number is curious because it is three times the original estimate.

That job number is curious because it is right there at the front and called jobs and it is curious because it comes only six days after the people who give accurate numbers tell us that the jobs losses in the province are bad.

How bad?

Here is a chart, shamelessly swiped from labradore that shows the percentage drops or hikes in employment comparing one month to another.  “Periods in which the employment picture was better than the same month one year before are shown as green peaks. Periods in which it is worse are red valleys.”

Notice that the most recent month  - at the far right - was the worst in the past decade and that the situation since last October has generally been on par with the worst of the last decade.

And if that was not evidence enough for you of the magnitude of the employment numbers, labradore produced a chart showing the same data going back as far as Stats Canada could.

The current situation in Newfoundland and Labrador is on par with the three worst job loss periods since the late 1970s. if the fishery tanks as it now appears to be doing, we could be in for one of the worst times on record.

Now the provincial government’s massive numbers economic stimulus release did not come as an accident or as a matter of routine or out of some desire to merely ensure that the ordinary wretches of the happy province knew in detail what was going on.

The current administration is not a bunch known to be enamoured of public interest disclosure.

There was a reason behind it.

There was also a reason why the job creation figures were suddenly given prominence and, one suspects, inflated to such proportions.

It would come as no surprise to find out that there was some kind of minor political screaming going on this past week at the need to get some good news out there to counteract the Premier’s health care meltdown.  The old boy busily defended himself by tossing out numbers about all the money that was being spent.

Coincidence?

We think not.

And then there were those Stats Can figures on employment. 

And maybe, just maybe, in there as well, the government pollster might have coughed up some numbers in answer to questions available only to his client, the provincial government.  Questions that ask for an assessment of  government performance in this sector or another or on this or that issue.

Maybe the signs of confidence aren’t good.

Maybe the confidence in handling the economy question got a majority of negatives as it did at least once before with the current crowd.  Negatives as big as the publicly reported positives.   The kind of polling numbers that make Hisself sit up and take notice. 

Or put a flag bag up, suddenly and surprisingly and inexplicably (unless you had the poll data).

Bad numbers.

The kind of numbers that put monsters under a politician’s bed.

No wonder the Premier and his fish minister looked really worried when the announced some sort of fisheries aid package will come along at some undefined point in the future, if necessary.

The reality of what is going on in the province – compared to the silly hype from government and other quarters – would be enough to give anyone the heebie-jeebies.

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We’re more than a bit sceptical too, Jerome.

Finance minister Jerome Kennedy, quoted in the Friday Telegram:

"I'm have to tell you, I'm a bit skeptical, (Prime Minister Stephen Harper) indicates that 3,000 infrastructure projects across the country are underway," he said.

"Really, at the end of the day, there may be commitments on the part of the federal government, but what's taking place in this province is as a result of our government aggressively pursuing and accelerating this infrastructure strategy."

Hmmm.

By accelerating, that would mean finishing off stuff either started or promised up to four years ago, Jerome?

Like say half the stuff Kennedy listed in his blockbuster update which in no way insulted the premier’s sensibilities about announcing and re-announcing money that had been announced upwards of seven times before in some cases?

Or would that be taking credit for more than the government was really doing, another thing Provincial Conservative Kennedy accused the federal Conservatives of doing?

Like $800 million in new infrastructure spending  - on top of the $800 million already committed for this year – some of which is cost-shared with Ottawa. That would be stuff that isn’t budgeted even though it is supposed to go out before the end of the current fiscal year.

Presumably that acceleration would be what provincial transportation minister Trevor Taylor was talking about yesterday:

"So this year, when the Federal Government offered economic stimulus money, we already had our priority list identified. We had been proactive and our sound strategic planning allowed us to move forward with a series of significant projects very smoothly.

Okay.

So we know Jerome, Trevor and da b’ys really weren’t ahead of the game since half of what they tossed out has been in the works for years.  One project committed in 2007 and promised to be delivered in 2009 just went to tender the other day.

Not really ahead of the game, are we, hmmm?

But with that to one side, surely Trevor and Jerome already inked the deal with the feds for that new money set to flow later this year.

Apparently not.

Federal finance leprechaun Jim Flaherty told CTV’s Jane Taber the other day that:

We have agreements with almost everybody, not yet with Newfoundland and Labrador.

But if Newfoundland and Labrador already had their list together, why didn’t they sign the agreement yet?

Maybe Jerome  - the guy who didn’t know what the Clerk of the legislature did – was just too busy doing something else to read his infrastructure stimulus briefing notes on the new agreement so he could sign the thing. 

Jerome was right about one thing, though:  all the talk of commitments without actually getting anything built would make anyone sceptical. 

-srbp-

The Bi-coastal Difference

Justin Trudeau, popular fundraising draw.

The townie version, courtesy of the guy who used to help bag Brian Tobin’s political cash, this time helping to bag some donors on someone else’s behalf: $100 bucks a pop at a private residence in a very exclusive part of St. John’s.

The west coast version, courtesy of the guy who sometimes carried Tobin’s bags before he got a better job:

The event, which is open to the general public for an admission fee, will be held at the Family Adventure Park on Lundrigan Drive from 2:30 to 5 p.m. June 21.

As Justin himself put it about the Corner Brook event:

“People always want to hear what I have to say, but not nearly as much as I want to hear what they have to say,” said Trudeau. “So, having a more casual format like this family barbecue and a number of other meetings with different people will allow me to make sure people have the chance to get their message out there and across.”

-srbp-

"Holy Carpet-Bombing," Batman Update: Since originally posting on this on Wednesday, your humble e-scribbler has received no fewer than three separate e-mails with the invitation to the St. John's event at SuperDean's house attached.

Amazing.

Either, I am on someone's mailing list and the thing is being mass mailed everywhere - my guess - or there is some worry about attendence. (Not my guess and hopefully not the outcome for Siobhan's sake.)

Let's not even consider that the people e-mailing aren't regular Bond Papers readers.

Hmmm.

Then again, since it is a Liberal fundraiser that might not be surprising.

Some of the most loyal BP readers are local Tories trying to stay in tune with what's happening within their own administration or people with provincial government IP addresses who presumably are getting paid to keep an eye on things.

Liberals seem have better things to to do, apparently.