"The [oil] industry is risk averse," [Premier Danny] Williams said.
That's from a scrum the Premier gave on Sunday about the oil companies and the pending launch of an American satellite launch that will see debris from the rocket used landing - at the closest - 25 kilometres away from the Hibernia and Terra Nova oil production platforms. He's been quoted in a number of news stories saying exactly those words.
Oil companies aren'’t actually risk averse. They are risk managers. Oil companies follow a “"discipline for living with the possibility that future events may cause adverse effects."”
11 April 2005
The truth is out there - if you want to accept it
A rock-steady source of good information sent me some data on launches by the Space Transportation System (STS), otherwise known as the space shuttle. He got it from NASA so I guess they know what they are talking about.
Seems that STS has been known to use an inclination greater than 51 degrees before and they plan to use it again since this takes them to places like the International Space Station.
On that inclination, they transit the Grand Banks and, as my solid source reminded me, that is why St. John's and especially Goose Bay are identified as possible landing sites should the STS encounter some problems.
At the risk of causing the Premier to have apoplexy, I thought it best to share this information with my faithful audience. It certainly helps to put the Titan 4B launch into perspective.
In the list that follows, I have edited so that only the launch inclinations greater than 50 degrees are included. Note that inclination is taken using the Equator as zero degrees. A 90 degree inclination is a polar orbit heading over the North Pole first. A 180 inclination would put something into orbit along the Equator opposite to the Earth's rotation. For a better discussion of STS mission inclinations, try this page.
Here's the editted list. Note the frequency the STS uses those high inclinations.
STS//Inclination// Notes
STS-9 57.0 HIGH
41g 51.7 HIGH
STS-51-B 57.0 HIGH
STS-61-A 57.0 HIGH
STS-27 57.0 HIGH
STS-28 57.0 HIGH
STS-36 62.0 HIGH
STS-39 57.0 HIGH
STS-48 57.0 HIGH
STS-42 57.0 HIGH
STS-45 57.0 HIGH
STS-47 57.0 HIGH
STS-53 57.0 HIGH
STS-56 57.0 HIGH
STS-59 56.9 HIGH
STS-60 56.4 HIGH
STS-64 56.9 HIGH
STS-68 57.0 HIGH
STS-66 57.0 HIGH
STS-63 51.6 HIGH
STS-71 51.6 HIGH
STS-74 51.6 HIGH
STS-76 51.6 HIGH
STS-79 51.7 HIGH
STS-81 51.6 HIGH
STS-84 51.7 HIGH
STS-85 57.0 HIGH
STS-86 51.6 HIGH
STS-89 51.6 HIGH
STS-88 51.6 HIGH
STS-91 51.7 HIGH
STS-92 51.6 HIGH
STS-96 51.6 HIGH
STS-97 51.6 HIGH
STS-98 51.5 HIGH
STS-99 57.0 HIGH
STS-101 51.6 HIGH
STS-102 51.5 HIGH
STS-106 51.6 HIGH
STS-100 51.6 HIGH
STS-104 51.6 HIGH
STS-105 51.6 HIGH
STS-108 51.6 HIGH
STS-110 51.6 HIGH
STS-111 51.6 HIGH
STS-112 51.6 HIGH
STS-113 51.6 HIGH
Planned future launches
STS-114 51.6 HIGH
STS-121 51.6 HIGH
STS-115 51.6 HIGH
STS-116 51.6 HIGH
STS-117 51.6 HIGH
Seems that STS has been known to use an inclination greater than 51 degrees before and they plan to use it again since this takes them to places like the International Space Station.
On that inclination, they transit the Grand Banks and, as my solid source reminded me, that is why St. John's and especially Goose Bay are identified as possible landing sites should the STS encounter some problems.
At the risk of causing the Premier to have apoplexy, I thought it best to share this information with my faithful audience. It certainly helps to put the Titan 4B launch into perspective.
In the list that follows, I have edited so that only the launch inclinations greater than 50 degrees are included. Note that inclination is taken using the Equator as zero degrees. A 90 degree inclination is a polar orbit heading over the North Pole first. A 180 inclination would put something into orbit along the Equator opposite to the Earth's rotation. For a better discussion of STS mission inclinations, try this page.
Here's the editted list. Note the frequency the STS uses those high inclinations.
STS//Inclination// Notes
STS-9 57.0 HIGH
41g 51.7 HIGH
STS-51-B 57.0 HIGH
STS-61-A 57.0 HIGH
STS-27 57.0 HIGH
STS-28 57.0 HIGH
STS-36 62.0 HIGH
STS-39 57.0 HIGH
STS-48 57.0 HIGH
STS-42 57.0 HIGH
STS-45 57.0 HIGH
STS-47 57.0 HIGH
STS-53 57.0 HIGH
STS-56 57.0 HIGH
STS-59 56.9 HIGH
STS-60 56.4 HIGH
STS-64 56.9 HIGH
STS-68 57.0 HIGH
STS-66 57.0 HIGH
STS-63 51.6 HIGH
STS-71 51.6 HIGH
STS-74 51.6 HIGH
STS-76 51.6 HIGH
STS-79 51.7 HIGH
STS-81 51.6 HIGH
STS-84 51.7 HIGH
STS-85 57.0 HIGH
STS-86 51.6 HIGH
STS-89 51.6 HIGH
STS-88 51.6 HIGH
STS-91 51.7 HIGH
STS-92 51.6 HIGH
STS-96 51.6 HIGH
STS-97 51.6 HIGH
STS-98 51.5 HIGH
STS-99 57.0 HIGH
STS-101 51.6 HIGH
STS-102 51.5 HIGH
STS-106 51.6 HIGH
STS-100 51.6 HIGH
STS-104 51.6 HIGH
STS-105 51.6 HIGH
STS-108 51.6 HIGH
STS-110 51.6 HIGH
STS-111 51.6 HIGH
STS-112 51.6 HIGH
STS-113 51.6 HIGH
Planned future launches
STS-114 51.6 HIGH
STS-121 51.6 HIGH
STS-115 51.6 HIGH
STS-116 51.6 HIGH
STS-117 51.6 HIGH
10 April 2005
Danger Danny Williams! Danger Danny Williams!
Is anyone really surprised that Danny Williams has even more questions after getting a full briefing than he had when he first heard about a booster landing in the Atlantic Ocean?
Now he's talking about problems with "something that big" hitting the seabed or changing wave patterns. I saw the scrum clips for myself on CTV NewsNet so I know exactly what the man said. Here's the script version of their story, just for good measure.
For those who want another script version, here's the Canadian Press account. Note that some Canadian officials were excluded from a portion of the briefing. Pretty simple stuff actually - that bit of the briefing likely contained highly classified information that some of the Canadians weren't cleared to receive. Here's another reason why the provincial government here needs to have someone working on public security full-time who is also cleared to at least Level III, commonly called Top Secret. It's also why it is useless to send a university professor from MUN's engineering school to participate in a meeting where classified information may be discussed. But that's actually one of the substantive issues here that is being ignored in what seems to evolving into our own version of Space Cowboys.
Butt look it is actually pretty simple. And I have to say: "Danny, my son, look, how many times do we have to explain it to you?"
1. Nothing "that big" is hitting anything. The booster rocket will disintegrate and shower down bits and pieces over a huge piece of ocean. Even if for some reason an entire section of missile comes down intact, the odds of it hitting the platforms or doing any substantive damage are astronomically small. If you want a 100% guarantee, I guess you won't be flying anywhere any time soon on a commercial airliner, or for that matter walking outside the door of your house to go to work.
2. By the time any of this rocket lands on the seabed, it will be slowed down and distributed around by ocean currents. Go sue White Star Line for the frickin Titanic, bye. It had a bigger impact than this thing will ever have.
3. As for the ocean currents stuff, I think it is time for Jon Lien and Dave Suzuki to do an intervention here. Holy crap, Batman, this is just foolish.
4. The Hibernia platform is being moved and the Terra Nova and White Rose FPSOs are being towed 30-50 miles off positions because that's what the oil company lawyers and insurance companies want to do. But it is the oil companies who are making that decision, not Danny Williams. That's why the Monday meeting is so interesting - the companies have already taken their decisions; what's left to discuss except maybe legal action.
5. As for cost, expect that the companies will file suit in US courts to recover their costs and damages from the US Air Force. Maybe Danny will do the same, join their suit or hop up and down until Ottawa files some sort of protest.
At the end of it all, though, the Premier doesn't have to jump up and down to get answers. All the information he needs is readily available and has been since the start of this whole affair. The Premier just has to accept what he is being told by various experts. If he doesn't want to accept that information or if he wants to set arbitrary and totally impossible objectives, then that's his call.
My question about all this is resolving down to this: why is Danny Williams talking about this? Who is he representing? What exactly does he want to get out of it?
Now he's talking about problems with "something that big" hitting the seabed or changing wave patterns. I saw the scrum clips for myself on CTV NewsNet so I know exactly what the man said. Here's the script version of their story, just for good measure.
For those who want another script version, here's the Canadian Press account. Note that some Canadian officials were excluded from a portion of the briefing. Pretty simple stuff actually - that bit of the briefing likely contained highly classified information that some of the Canadians weren't cleared to receive. Here's another reason why the provincial government here needs to have someone working on public security full-time who is also cleared to at least Level III, commonly called Top Secret. It's also why it is useless to send a university professor from MUN's engineering school to participate in a meeting where classified information may be discussed. But that's actually one of the substantive issues here that is being ignored in what seems to evolving into our own version of Space Cowboys.
Butt look it is actually pretty simple. And I have to say: "Danny, my son, look, how many times do we have to explain it to you?"
1. Nothing "that big" is hitting anything. The booster rocket will disintegrate and shower down bits and pieces over a huge piece of ocean. Even if for some reason an entire section of missile comes down intact, the odds of it hitting the platforms or doing any substantive damage are astronomically small. If you want a 100% guarantee, I guess you won't be flying anywhere any time soon on a commercial airliner, or for that matter walking outside the door of your house to go to work.
2. By the time any of this rocket lands on the seabed, it will be slowed down and distributed around by ocean currents. Go sue White Star Line for the frickin Titanic, bye. It had a bigger impact than this thing will ever have.
3. As for the ocean currents stuff, I think it is time for Jon Lien and Dave Suzuki to do an intervention here. Holy crap, Batman, this is just foolish.
4. The Hibernia platform is being moved and the Terra Nova and White Rose FPSOs are being towed 30-50 miles off positions because that's what the oil company lawyers and insurance companies want to do. But it is the oil companies who are making that decision, not Danny Williams. That's why the Monday meeting is so interesting - the companies have already taken their decisions; what's left to discuss except maybe legal action.
5. As for cost, expect that the companies will file suit in US courts to recover their costs and damages from the US Air Force. Maybe Danny will do the same, join their suit or hop up and down until Ottawa files some sort of protest.
At the end of it all, though, the Premier doesn't have to jump up and down to get answers. All the information he needs is readily available and has been since the start of this whole affair. The Premier just has to accept what he is being told by various experts. If he doesn't want to accept that information or if he wants to set arbitrary and totally impossible objectives, then that's his call.
My question about all this is resolving down to this: why is Danny Williams talking about this? Who is he representing? What exactly does he want to get out of it?
Double-plus good
There is saying things in few words and then there is adding a bit of interpretation to the few words that the end result doesn't quite match a little thing called reality.
VOCM is at it again this morning, reporting on the postponement of the NROL-16 launch at Canaveral.
"The U-S has postponed this week's planned launch of a Titan rocket. A spokesman for Deputy Prime Minister Anne McLellan says the Americans have delayed Wednesday's launch until April 17th. In the meantime talks will continue to allay Canadian concerns that East Coast oil rigs could be damaged by falling pieces of space junk, but McLellan is showing little concern. In the meantime talks will continue to allay Canadian concerns."
Ok.
Look at those last two sentences and break them out.
Talks will still go on, according to VOCM in order to "allay Canadian concerns" although if you read a little bit further, the federal cabinet minister responsible for being concerned about these sorts of things (i.e. the Government of Canada) "is showing little concern".
Two things, aside from the excessive use of the word "concern" and the phrase "talks will continue" in such a short space:
1. The meeting in Halifax was designed to address specific issues among the people with assets supposedly at risk (namely the operators of the platforms) and to deal with Danny William's issues primarily for their noisy political impact. That is noise as in devoid of signal. This hardly constitutes "Canadian" concerns as if the whole country was headed for the border to invade if the rocket tries to leave Florida. That phrase actually looks close to some official American approaches - namely that they are addressing "Canadian" concerns, because They don't distinguish among Canadians like Canadians do.
2. McLellan showing little concern would be a misleading intepretation. She has said - and rightly so - that the chances of this rocket hitting the platforms is almost non-existant. As in "will never happen".
VOCM's version implicitly criticizes McLellan for not being as enraged as Danny Williams; that's where I get a problem. Now while we can quibble about other issues like the Accord, in this instance, Williams is increasingly floating into orbit himself without any justification.
That's because in a short space of time Williams went from being what we in the politicial business call "responsible" for raising concerns based on limited information to being what we in most of society call "hysterical" - as in give someone a Valium - for ignoring solid information in favour of rants.
The truth is out there. Danny just needs to accept it.
As for VOCM, that's two Dubious Interpretation Prizes they've garnered on just this one story.
I, for one, am getting concerned.
VOCM is at it again this morning, reporting on the postponement of the NROL-16 launch at Canaveral.
"The U-S has postponed this week's planned launch of a Titan rocket. A spokesman for Deputy Prime Minister Anne McLellan says the Americans have delayed Wednesday's launch until April 17th. In the meantime talks will continue to allay Canadian concerns that East Coast oil rigs could be damaged by falling pieces of space junk, but McLellan is showing little concern. In the meantime talks will continue to allay Canadian concerns."
Ok.
Look at those last two sentences and break them out.
Talks will still go on, according to VOCM in order to "allay Canadian concerns" although if you read a little bit further, the federal cabinet minister responsible for being concerned about these sorts of things (i.e. the Government of Canada) "is showing little concern".
Two things, aside from the excessive use of the word "concern" and the phrase "talks will continue" in such a short space:
1. The meeting in Halifax was designed to address specific issues among the people with assets supposedly at risk (namely the operators of the platforms) and to deal with Danny William's issues primarily for their noisy political impact. That is noise as in devoid of signal. This hardly constitutes "Canadian" concerns as if the whole country was headed for the border to invade if the rocket tries to leave Florida. That phrase actually looks close to some official American approaches - namely that they are addressing "Canadian" concerns, because They don't distinguish among Canadians like Canadians do.
2. McLellan showing little concern would be a misleading intepretation. She has said - and rightly so - that the chances of this rocket hitting the platforms is almost non-existant. As in "will never happen".
VOCM's version implicitly criticizes McLellan for not being as enraged as Danny Williams; that's where I get a problem. Now while we can quibble about other issues like the Accord, in this instance, Williams is increasingly floating into orbit himself without any justification.
That's because in a short space of time Williams went from being what we in the politicial business call "responsible" for raising concerns based on limited information to being what we in most of society call "hysterical" - as in give someone a Valium - for ignoring solid information in favour of rants.
The truth is out there. Danny just needs to accept it.
As for VOCM, that's two Dubious Interpretation Prizes they've garnered on just this one story.
I, for one, am getting concerned.
And then another day brings the appearance of changes
The launch of a US Air Force Titan 4B is being delayed owing to unspecified problems with ground equipment involved in loading the oxider, according to a news release from 45 Space Wing, Cape Canaveral Air Force Station on Saturday.
Mission B-30 has been postponed several times in the past month for the same reason. As of Friday, 08 Apr 05, the launch is delayed indefinitely, as is another mission using a Delta 4 rocket.
CBC news is linking the delay to a meeting in Dartmouth Saturday of officials from Newfoundland and Labrador, the Government of Canada and the United States government to discuss the launch and implications for the Hibernia and Terra Nova platforms. The link is to an older story, but late Saturday night, CBC Radio news tied the delay to the meeting.
Canadian Press, meanwhile, reports that US officials provided Canadian federal and provincial officials with the American risk assessment on the launch. Earlier comments by Premier Danny Williams of Newfoundland and Labrador suggested the Americans had made their plans without taking account of the Hibernia and Terra Nova platforms. Public affairs officers from USAF Space Command contradict this assessment by the Premier, emphasizing that the platforms are outside the debris zone.
Federal public security minister and deputy prime minister Anne McLellan today reporters on Saturday that "[t]he risk is absolutely minuscule. If one is looking at a risk of one in 10 trillion, then you realize that the risk is absolutely minimal." [Emphasis added]
To get an accurate version of comments by US State department briefer Richard Boucher go to the State Department website. Media reports and comments by Premier Williams that there was confusion as to the date of the launch appear to be a misinterpretation of Boucher's comments. The date April 13 is suggested as the date Boucher believes is the correct one - he says "I think" - and then refers reporters to the US Department of Defence for further comment. The US DOD public affairs website contains no mention of the issue and the story does not appear to have picked up any attention from US news outlets.
For those curious about details, here is a link to the hazard area related to the launch originally planned for 10 Apr 05 and now postponed indefinitely. This is not the debris zone, but the area of maximum hazard to air and marine interests at the time of launch and immediately after. Note that this hazard warning lists the launch complex CX-40. This should not be confused with other numerical identifiers like NROL-16 and B-30.
Taken, altogether in one spot, there are three postions here that one can see quite easily. They can be summarised as follows:
1. The US government and its agencies are launching a military satellite into a specific orbit and intend to carry on with the launch, barring any technical delays.
The Canadian federal government appears to be accepting American assurances on the safety of the launch. This is a reasonable position given the issues involved.
2. The platform operators are taking prudent actions like planning to shut down operations and are likely assessing the risks from this launch to their direct financial interests in offshore oil production. They are entitled to take these precautions. Any compensation would be a legal matter; I suspect the operators are getting advice from their lawyers and insurers to be extremely cautious.
3. The Government of Newfoundland and Labrador is taking an extreme position, without having apparently taken responsibility for shutting down production. Premier Williams comments have been extreme, are often at odds with established facts, history and the advice and information already in the public domain that suggest the risk to the offshore platforms is minimal, negligible or virtually non-existant.
The Premier has insisted on changes to USAF plans which are highly unlikely to ever take place. Simply put, he doesn't have the juice to make them happen, nor does Canada.
Further, the Premier's personal involvement in this matter remains unexplained. The Premier is neither the minister repsonsible for the offshore (Ed Byrne), nor the minister responsible for intergovernmental affairs (Tom Marshall), nor the minister responsible for emergency response (Jack Byrne) unless each of these three ministers is on leave. Of course, as first minister the premier can do just about anything he wants. It just seems strange that he has taken control of this issue and made statements which are at odds with established facts.
His rhetoric has heightened anxiety in the public about this matter apparently needlessly.
Will the Premier being seeking monetary compensation from the United States government for losses incurred by the provincial government in the event of a launch even if there is no affect to the rig (excepting as a result of decisions taken by the operators) . Will this become the basis for an Atlantic Missile Accord? His approach thus far is consistent with what one might expect from the lawyer representing the future plaintiff in a law suit.
Mission B-30 has been postponed several times in the past month for the same reason. As of Friday, 08 Apr 05, the launch is delayed indefinitely, as is another mission using a Delta 4 rocket.
CBC news is linking the delay to a meeting in Dartmouth Saturday of officials from Newfoundland and Labrador, the Government of Canada and the United States government to discuss the launch and implications for the Hibernia and Terra Nova platforms. The link is to an older story, but late Saturday night, CBC Radio news tied the delay to the meeting.
Canadian Press, meanwhile, reports that US officials provided Canadian federal and provincial officials with the American risk assessment on the launch. Earlier comments by Premier Danny Williams of Newfoundland and Labrador suggested the Americans had made their plans without taking account of the Hibernia and Terra Nova platforms. Public affairs officers from USAF Space Command contradict this assessment by the Premier, emphasizing that the platforms are outside the debris zone.
Federal public security minister and deputy prime minister Anne McLellan today reporters on Saturday that "[t]he risk is absolutely minuscule. If one is looking at a risk of one in 10 trillion, then you realize that the risk is absolutely minimal." [Emphasis added]
To get an accurate version of comments by US State department briefer Richard Boucher go to the State Department website. Media reports and comments by Premier Williams that there was confusion as to the date of the launch appear to be a misinterpretation of Boucher's comments. The date April 13 is suggested as the date Boucher believes is the correct one - he says "I think" - and then refers reporters to the US Department of Defence for further comment. The US DOD public affairs website contains no mention of the issue and the story does not appear to have picked up any attention from US news outlets.
For those curious about details, here is a link to the hazard area related to the launch originally planned for 10 Apr 05 and now postponed indefinitely. This is not the debris zone, but the area of maximum hazard to air and marine interests at the time of launch and immediately after. Note that this hazard warning lists the launch complex CX-40. This should not be confused with other numerical identifiers like NROL-16 and B-30.
Taken, altogether in one spot, there are three postions here that one can see quite easily. They can be summarised as follows:
1. The US government and its agencies are launching a military satellite into a specific orbit and intend to carry on with the launch, barring any technical delays.
The Canadian federal government appears to be accepting American assurances on the safety of the launch. This is a reasonable position given the issues involved.
2. The platform operators are taking prudent actions like planning to shut down operations and are likely assessing the risks from this launch to their direct financial interests in offshore oil production. They are entitled to take these precautions. Any compensation would be a legal matter; I suspect the operators are getting advice from their lawyers and insurers to be extremely cautious.
3. The Government of Newfoundland and Labrador is taking an extreme position, without having apparently taken responsibility for shutting down production. Premier Williams comments have been extreme, are often at odds with established facts, history and the advice and information already in the public domain that suggest the risk to the offshore platforms is minimal, negligible or virtually non-existant.
The Premier has insisted on changes to USAF plans which are highly unlikely to ever take place. Simply put, he doesn't have the juice to make them happen, nor does Canada.
Further, the Premier's personal involvement in this matter remains unexplained. The Premier is neither the minister repsonsible for the offshore (Ed Byrne), nor the minister responsible for intergovernmental affairs (Tom Marshall), nor the minister responsible for emergency response (Jack Byrne) unless each of these three ministers is on leave. Of course, as first minister the premier can do just about anything he wants. It just seems strange that he has taken control of this issue and made statements which are at odds with established facts.
His rhetoric has heightened anxiety in the public about this matter apparently needlessly.
Will the Premier being seeking monetary compensation from the United States government for losses incurred by the provincial government in the event of a launch even if there is no affect to the rig (excepting as a result of decisions taken by the operators) . Will this become the basis for an Atlantic Missile Accord? His approach thus far is consistent with what one might expect from the lawyer representing the future plaintiff in a law suit.
09 April 2005
What a difference a few hours make - updated
Hearing Premier Williams' scrum Friday on the Titan booster crisis made me want to take back the good things I posted about him earlier.
Friday we got the old hysterical Danny from the offshore revenues fracas. Here's the CBC Here and Now broadcast from Friday complete with Deanne Fleet's report at time incidence 6:39. This link needs RealPlayer. CBC uses a submarine launched ballistic missile to illustrate the story - missile guys. The Premier uses a 1998 Titan accident (see "The Missileer") to highlight why he is worried. The Premier sounds increasingly like a guy building a case for suing on behalf of a client with "stress". Remember the guy who sued Fear Factor because he was grossed out by one of the food stunts? You get the idea.
The Premier sounded hysterical in the sense of "uncontrollably emotional; convulsive, fitful...In a state of panic or behaving in a wild irrational manner, due to fear or emotional trauma."
We are living under a threat, according to the Premier.
He needs an assurance from the US government that this missile has absolutely "zero" chances of hitting the Hibernia rig or that if it comes close that the impact won't disrupt the rig. Someone should make the transcript public so people can see everything the Premier said and how he said it.
The Premier has caused unwarranted and unneeded public worry with his irresponsible comments.
To make matters worse, some national media are now talking about a missile flying "over Newfoundland" when the bloody thing will actually burn up on re-entry over 400 kilometres out to sea.
In the meantime, the Premier is apparently miffed, perplexed, annoyed and angered that people are giving conflicting information. Well, that's easy enough to solve: give me a call and I'll set you straight.
The CBC nationally has picked up this same crap, referring to conflicts between agencies in the US government that actually don't have anything directly to do with the launch. Some guy from State says the launch is on for Wednesday, which is likely what his subordinates briefed him. meantime some Captain from Space Command in Colorado says the date hasn't been reset.
Now I am not sure how reporters followed their daisy chain to get comments from these guys but let me put this out there as a wild-eyed, radical like a Russian-anarchist kind of idea:
The rocket is being fired by USAF Space Command, so the Space Command guy likely knows what he is talking about. The guy from State probably needed a briefing on where Canada was let alone why some place called New Finland was upset.
In any event, the launch was postponed for technical reasons and once those reasons are fixed, up she goes. That's what I have been saying all along. Won't someone please pay attention?
But what's the conflict furrowing the brow of Der Premier? Literally whether or not there is a one in 10 million or a one in a trillion chance of the rig being affected in any way possible. As I listened to the scrum played today by Ted Blades "On the Go" I heard a personal injury lawyer who can see the red lights on the ambulance.
We live under threat, alright: A threat that someone with a grip on reality might seize the microphone and tell everyone to go back to sleep.
We live now under a new threat. Engineers are reportedly meeting tomorrow (Saturday) to put some kind of firm numbers on the probability of impact. Add the lawyers to the equation and we will get even more confusion.
In the meantime, I will drag everyone back to what I said before: there is no problem. There is no threat. The odds are either one in 10 million or one in a trillion the platforms won't be hit by a piece of the Titan 403B booster.
I wish I could get those kind of odds that say Danny Williams might take a pill before his next scrum on this subject.
Gimme a frickin' break.
Friday we got the old hysterical Danny from the offshore revenues fracas. Here's the CBC Here and Now broadcast from Friday complete with Deanne Fleet's report at time incidence 6:39. This link needs RealPlayer. CBC uses a submarine launched ballistic missile to illustrate the story - missile guys. The Premier uses a 1998 Titan accident (see "The Missileer") to highlight why he is worried. The Premier sounds increasingly like a guy building a case for suing on behalf of a client with "stress". Remember the guy who sued Fear Factor because he was grossed out by one of the food stunts? You get the idea.
The Premier sounded hysterical in the sense of "uncontrollably emotional; convulsive, fitful...In a state of panic or behaving in a wild irrational manner, due to fear or emotional trauma."
We are living under a threat, according to the Premier.
He needs an assurance from the US government that this missile has absolutely "zero" chances of hitting the Hibernia rig or that if it comes close that the impact won't disrupt the rig. Someone should make the transcript public so people can see everything the Premier said and how he said it.
The Premier has caused unwarranted and unneeded public worry with his irresponsible comments.
To make matters worse, some national media are now talking about a missile flying "over Newfoundland" when the bloody thing will actually burn up on re-entry over 400 kilometres out to sea.
In the meantime, the Premier is apparently miffed, perplexed, annoyed and angered that people are giving conflicting information. Well, that's easy enough to solve: give me a call and I'll set you straight.
The CBC nationally has picked up this same crap, referring to conflicts between agencies in the US government that actually don't have anything directly to do with the launch. Some guy from State says the launch is on for Wednesday, which is likely what his subordinates briefed him. meantime some Captain from Space Command in Colorado says the date hasn't been reset.
Now I am not sure how reporters followed their daisy chain to get comments from these guys but let me put this out there as a wild-eyed, radical like a Russian-anarchist kind of idea:
The rocket is being fired by USAF Space Command, so the Space Command guy likely knows what he is talking about. The guy from State probably needed a briefing on where Canada was let alone why some place called New Finland was upset.
In any event, the launch was postponed for technical reasons and once those reasons are fixed, up she goes. That's what I have been saying all along. Won't someone please pay attention?
But what's the conflict furrowing the brow of Der Premier? Literally whether or not there is a one in 10 million or a one in a trillion chance of the rig being affected in any way possible. As I listened to the scrum played today by Ted Blades "On the Go" I heard a personal injury lawyer who can see the red lights on the ambulance.
We live under threat, alright: A threat that someone with a grip on reality might seize the microphone and tell everyone to go back to sleep.
We live now under a new threat. Engineers are reportedly meeting tomorrow (Saturday) to put some kind of firm numbers on the probability of impact. Add the lawyers to the equation and we will get even more confusion.
In the meantime, I will drag everyone back to what I said before: there is no problem. There is no threat. The odds are either one in 10 million or one in a trillion the platforms won't be hit by a piece of the Titan 403B booster.
I wish I could get those kind of odds that say Danny Williams might take a pill before his next scrum on this subject.
Gimme a frickin' break.
08 April 2005
The Missileer
If you haven't heard enough about rockets, then I am here to feed your curiosity and hopefully, allay some of the anxiety that has seized our beloved Premier.
Here are some basic points that I suspected but which are now confirmed as well as some links to yet more background information.
See, Premier Williams, there is no reason for you to be confused if your staff used the internet.
Or called me in. After all, I have spent about half my life on defence issues and I currently work as a defence policy consultant.
1. USAF Space Command knew the Hibernia and Terra Nova platforms were there all along. As their public affairs spokesman said, the odds of a missile hitting a tiny oil rig in the middle of the vast ocean are small, maybe one in a trillion, especially when the platforms are outside the debris zone.
2. The Titan is a combined solid and liquid fueled missile. The side boosters are solid fueled and burn out shortly after launch. The main propulsion unit is the liquid-fueled Titan which has been in USAF service since the 1950s.
3. They have way too much experience with operating this system to make dumb mistakes about debris zones and impact areas for debris. Lquid fueled systems are great because you can predict where they will land with much greater accuracy than solid fueled systems. You can also cut off their power when you want to and do all sorts of other things with them you can't do with their solid fueled cousins.
4. A similar Titan rocket was fired on a similar trajectory in 1994 without incident.
5. The more recent loss of a Titan 4A from Canaveral is worth paying attention to because:
a. the Premier used it to bolster his hysteria at a scrum today; and,
b. he is WRONG.
The incident occured in 1998 and involved an older version of this particular booster. That missile was destroyed by the on-board self-destruct mechanism shortly after launch when problems occured. These were later attributed to wiring problems. It never got close to Canadian waters - in fact it traveled exactly 4, 422 feet from the launchpad. Here's a link to the full report.
A subsequent launch of the 4B version went off flawlessly, as reported at this link.
For a description of a two-stage Titan launch try this link from 2003. The version here had an extra boost vehicle designed to manoeuvre the payload into orbit. I erroneously described this as a second stage earlier; that doesn't change my assessment that there is a near zero chance (one in a trillion) of any debris from the B-30 launch landing within sight of Hibernia and Terra Nova.
6. Here's a link to a story on the delay of the current mission, dated 07 April 2005.
7. Here's a link on the payload likely being carried. It describes radar imaging in layman's terms. Read this and you will understand, Premier, why this launch will not be scrubbed and why there is virtually a zero chance of it being fired off on a trajectory designed solely to calm your nerves.
At least this little episode has caused me to find a raft of new sources on the web for tracking space-related issues.
Here are some basic points that I suspected but which are now confirmed as well as some links to yet more background information.
See, Premier Williams, there is no reason for you to be confused if your staff used the internet.
Or called me in. After all, I have spent about half my life on defence issues and I currently work as a defence policy consultant.
1. USAF Space Command knew the Hibernia and Terra Nova platforms were there all along. As their public affairs spokesman said, the odds of a missile hitting a tiny oil rig in the middle of the vast ocean are small, maybe one in a trillion, especially when the platforms are outside the debris zone.
2. The Titan is a combined solid and liquid fueled missile. The side boosters are solid fueled and burn out shortly after launch. The main propulsion unit is the liquid-fueled Titan which has been in USAF service since the 1950s.
3. They have way too much experience with operating this system to make dumb mistakes about debris zones and impact areas for debris. Lquid fueled systems are great because you can predict where they will land with much greater accuracy than solid fueled systems. You can also cut off their power when you want to and do all sorts of other things with them you can't do with their solid fueled cousins.
4. A similar Titan rocket was fired on a similar trajectory in 1994 without incident.
5. The more recent loss of a Titan 4A from Canaveral is worth paying attention to because:
a. the Premier used it to bolster his hysteria at a scrum today; and,
b. he is WRONG.
The incident occured in 1998 and involved an older version of this particular booster. That missile was destroyed by the on-board self-destruct mechanism shortly after launch when problems occured. These were later attributed to wiring problems. It never got close to Canadian waters - in fact it traveled exactly 4, 422 feet from the launchpad. Here's a link to the full report.
A subsequent launch of the 4B version went off flawlessly, as reported at this link.
For a description of a two-stage Titan launch try this link from 2003. The version here had an extra boost vehicle designed to manoeuvre the payload into orbit. I erroneously described this as a second stage earlier; that doesn't change my assessment that there is a near zero chance (one in a trillion) of any debris from the B-30 launch landing within sight of Hibernia and Terra Nova.
6. Here's a link to a story on the delay of the current mission, dated 07 April 2005.
7. Here's a link on the payload likely being carried. It describes radar imaging in layman's terms. Read this and you will understand, Premier, why this launch will not be scrubbed and why there is virtually a zero chance of it being fired off on a trajectory designed solely to calm your nerves.
At least this little episode has caused me to find a raft of new sources on the web for tracking space-related issues.
Here's where the Nat Lamp went
Meanwhile over at the National Post, the editors took complete leave of their senses and turned what was once a decent news rag into the National Lampoon today. Such is their frenzy to pry the Liberals from power in Ottawa and install Stephen Harper.
The feature piece, as posted to the website at least, is Don Martin's news story (?)...column (?)...screenplay(?)... titled "Canada's Watergate".
Here's the lede:
"He glanced at reporters salivating to escape his news quarantine, looked at the bank of television cameras carrying his inquiry live for the first time in a week and issued the order: Unleash hell."
And then a few paragraphs later:
"The dam protecting federal Liberals from the disclosure of their party's ugly past had been breached -- and Canada's Watergate spilled out."
Alright, Don, let's start by reminding people that you are are the guy captured in the CBC doc on the last federal election who was close to tears because your pre-written story on the Glorious Conservative Victory was rendered as hamster-cage bedding by...wait for it...the ordinary voters of Canada.
In order to write such drivel, Don either never heard of Gomery before or he thinks his readers are mouth-breathing idiots.
News quarantine? Gomery had three choices when dealing with the motion for a publication ban to protect Jean Brault's right to a fair trial. He could have rejected it. He could have accepted it, as he did, knowing full well, based on ample experience across the country, that some schmuck will give a briefing to US bloggers who will print the material and thereby frustrate the ban.
"News quarantine"? Let's thank God Don's a keyboard pounder and not in charge of communicable disease control for Metro Toronto health authorities during the next SARS outbreak.
Gomery's third choice was in camera hearings, in which the media and general public would be barred. Poof: that's a real news quarantine. Unless there was some legal reason why he didn't have the power, Gomery's "news quarantine" was a Trojan with a few holes poked in it.
"Unleash hell"? This line is lifted straight from some 1930s dime-store novel, or given its hysterical nature, any recent scrum by Danny Williams.
And only in a display of sheer ignorance - as in stupidity, as in a lack of any ethical standards whatsoever - would Martin compare whatever Gomery is investigating to a conspiracy at the highest levels of the US government to commit criminal acts like break and enter in order to subvert democracy, smear political opponents and then systematically cover-up the whole business.
The only upside to Martin's piece is that, as I recall, he didn't use the word "explosive" once.
Don Martin obviously must be the guy who used to scribble cartoons for MAD magazine.
Canada's contender for the title of real national newspaper, today became a national joke.
And if I want laughs, I'll go read the real thing.
The feature piece, as posted to the website at least, is Don Martin's news story (?)...column (?)...screenplay(?)... titled "Canada's Watergate".
Here's the lede:
"He glanced at reporters salivating to escape his news quarantine, looked at the bank of television cameras carrying his inquiry live for the first time in a week and issued the order: Unleash hell."
And then a few paragraphs later:
"The dam protecting federal Liberals from the disclosure of their party's ugly past had been breached -- and Canada's Watergate spilled out."
Alright, Don, let's start by reminding people that you are are the guy captured in the CBC doc on the last federal election who was close to tears because your pre-written story on the Glorious Conservative Victory was rendered as hamster-cage bedding by...wait for it...the ordinary voters of Canada.
In order to write such drivel, Don either never heard of Gomery before or he thinks his readers are mouth-breathing idiots.
News quarantine? Gomery had three choices when dealing with the motion for a publication ban to protect Jean Brault's right to a fair trial. He could have rejected it. He could have accepted it, as he did, knowing full well, based on ample experience across the country, that some schmuck will give a briefing to US bloggers who will print the material and thereby frustrate the ban.
"News quarantine"? Let's thank God Don's a keyboard pounder and not in charge of communicable disease control for Metro Toronto health authorities during the next SARS outbreak.
Gomery's third choice was in camera hearings, in which the media and general public would be barred. Poof: that's a real news quarantine. Unless there was some legal reason why he didn't have the power, Gomery's "news quarantine" was a Trojan with a few holes poked in it.
"Unleash hell"? This line is lifted straight from some 1930s dime-store novel, or given its hysterical nature, any recent scrum by Danny Williams.
And only in a display of sheer ignorance - as in stupidity, as in a lack of any ethical standards whatsoever - would Martin compare whatever Gomery is investigating to a conspiracy at the highest levels of the US government to commit criminal acts like break and enter in order to subvert democracy, smear political opponents and then systematically cover-up the whole business.
The only upside to Martin's piece is that, as I recall, he didn't use the word "explosive" once.
Don Martin obviously must be the guy who used to scribble cartoons for MAD magazine.
Canada's contender for the title of real national newspaper, today became a national joke.
And if I want laughs, I'll go read the real thing.
Dear Premier Williams...
if you are finding this whole Titan rocket thing a bit confusing owing to mixed messages, as CBC is reporting, then I have a simple piece of advice:
Give me a call.
I will gladly provide you with accurate information and analysis of this and similar issues. My rates are reasonable.
Yes, this is a shameless act of self-promotion but that doesn't mean it isn't justified.
Give me a call.
I will gladly provide you with accurate information and analysis of this and similar issues. My rates are reasonable.
Yes, this is a shameless act of self-promotion but that doesn't mean it isn't justified.
Getting it right and other Titan-ic issues
Without making it a great saga, I posted comments this morning about the province's response to the Titan booster issue and specifically some comments attributed to the Premier that came from a VOCM story. The story is still posted, so you can go and have a look at it for yourself.
As I have said before, VOCM is a news outlet than can describe a situation accurately in as few words as possible. Sometimes, though, interpretations can go astray or the few words chosen can lead people like me to make the wrong conclusion.
Here's the bit in question: "Meantime, Premier Williams says the incident drives home the need for a missile defence system. He is a strong backer of the part that Happy Valley-Goose Bay can play in such a system."
When I read that, I had a hard time figuring how anyone could link these two things together. My post - since deleted because I was wrong - focused on the idea that the linkage apparently drawn by the Premier was based on faulty information from various briefings he may have received. It fits with my overall interpretation that, based on what's in the public domain, this whole thing looked like a massive over-reaction on someone's part.
That said, let me make at least this much clear: the Premier's reaction, while full of his customary hyperbole, was entirely what I would have expected given the information he seems to have received. If I thought that there was a remote chance some gigantic rocket might possibly crash into the Hibernia rig, I'd be making a huge issue about it publicly, in addition to phoning anyone who could do something about it and making sure that there was no threat to life in the event the launch went ahead.
Full marks go to Premier Williams.
As I noted in "Massive Correction" someone else who was at the Premier's scrum put the whole thing in context for me. I can see where the issue came from - it was a huge stretch to even ask the question in this context - and the Premier's reply, as I have it, didn't draw a direct link.
There are still some lingering questions in my mind on this matter, despite the fact most news media have moved on to other things.
The offshore production platforms would certainly make my list of national strategic assets for several reasons. They certainly are major assets for the operators and I take it as a matter of course that the operators monitor potential threats to their property.
Aside from the economic implications of a complete shutdown of offshore production for any length of time, some other agencies like Coast Guard, National Defence, Transport Canada, Environment Canada and some provincial government departments could be called on to respond to any disaster like an impact on the platforms or in assisting in the evacuation.
On a number of levels, this Titan booster issue highlights the importance of emergency preparedness and the need for effective communication and co-ordinated action by public and private sector organizations. I am not saying this did not occur appropriately - sometimes excrement occurs - but the wider lessons/implications of this incident should not be lost.
In that context, though, I am still wondering:
1. When did one of the key players (operators, federal government, CNOPB, provincial government) become aware of this launch as a potential threat to the production platforms?
2. When did the first one who noticed alert the others, all of whom have parts to play?
3. What, if any, mitigation action was taken before ordering the evacuation of the platforms and the relocation of the semi-submersible platform? For example, if ExxonMobil spotted it, I suspect a call from their head office to Washington would have generated more than enough of a response given:
a. the economic value of the assets to US-owned companies;
b. the strategic value of oil to the US economy in the current world economy; and,
c. the fact that both the President and Vice-President are generally familiar with the oil business.
4. Who ordered the evacuation, or depopulation as it has been euphemistically called?
5. On what basis was the evac ordered?
6. Did Ottawa take action before or after the call from Danny Williams or was it more or less simultaneous?
7. Where exactly were the offshore platforms in relation to the anticipated debris zone? To my mind, this is a crucial issue to determine the validity of the evacuation order. Since rocket launches from Florida are not new, this contingency may have already been considered. Maybe it is a completely unique event.
These are just questions. Honestly, I don't know the answers nor do I presume to know them. I am just tossing them out there for consideration.
Incidentally, this incident has been described by some national media as a "test" launch. Wherever they are getting this from, it is wrong.
This is a routine event in every respect, except for the apparent implications for Hibernia and Terra Nova.
As I have said before, VOCM is a news outlet than can describe a situation accurately in as few words as possible. Sometimes, though, interpretations can go astray or the few words chosen can lead people like me to make the wrong conclusion.
Here's the bit in question: "Meantime, Premier Williams says the incident drives home the need for a missile defence system. He is a strong backer of the part that Happy Valley-Goose Bay can play in such a system."
When I read that, I had a hard time figuring how anyone could link these two things together. My post - since deleted because I was wrong - focused on the idea that the linkage apparently drawn by the Premier was based on faulty information from various briefings he may have received. It fits with my overall interpretation that, based on what's in the public domain, this whole thing looked like a massive over-reaction on someone's part.
That said, let me make at least this much clear: the Premier's reaction, while full of his customary hyperbole, was entirely what I would have expected given the information he seems to have received. If I thought that there was a remote chance some gigantic rocket might possibly crash into the Hibernia rig, I'd be making a huge issue about it publicly, in addition to phoning anyone who could do something about it and making sure that there was no threat to life in the event the launch went ahead.
Full marks go to Premier Williams.
As I noted in "Massive Correction" someone else who was at the Premier's scrum put the whole thing in context for me. I can see where the issue came from - it was a huge stretch to even ask the question in this context - and the Premier's reply, as I have it, didn't draw a direct link.
There are still some lingering questions in my mind on this matter, despite the fact most news media have moved on to other things.
The offshore production platforms would certainly make my list of national strategic assets for several reasons. They certainly are major assets for the operators and I take it as a matter of course that the operators monitor potential threats to their property.
Aside from the economic implications of a complete shutdown of offshore production for any length of time, some other agencies like Coast Guard, National Defence, Transport Canada, Environment Canada and some provincial government departments could be called on to respond to any disaster like an impact on the platforms or in assisting in the evacuation.
On a number of levels, this Titan booster issue highlights the importance of emergency preparedness and the need for effective communication and co-ordinated action by public and private sector organizations. I am not saying this did not occur appropriately - sometimes excrement occurs - but the wider lessons/implications of this incident should not be lost.
In that context, though, I am still wondering:
1. When did one of the key players (operators, federal government, CNOPB, provincial government) become aware of this launch as a potential threat to the production platforms?
2. When did the first one who noticed alert the others, all of whom have parts to play?
3. What, if any, mitigation action was taken before ordering the evacuation of the platforms and the relocation of the semi-submersible platform? For example, if ExxonMobil spotted it, I suspect a call from their head office to Washington would have generated more than enough of a response given:
a. the economic value of the assets to US-owned companies;
b. the strategic value of oil to the US economy in the current world economy; and,
c. the fact that both the President and Vice-President are generally familiar with the oil business.
4. Who ordered the evacuation, or depopulation as it has been euphemistically called?
5. On what basis was the evac ordered?
6. Did Ottawa take action before or after the call from Danny Williams or was it more or less simultaneous?
7. Where exactly were the offshore platforms in relation to the anticipated debris zone? To my mind, this is a crucial issue to determine the validity of the evacuation order. Since rocket launches from Florida are not new, this contingency may have already been considered. Maybe it is a completely unique event.
These are just questions. Honestly, I don't know the answers nor do I presume to know them. I am just tossing them out there for consideration.
Incidentally, this incident has been described by some national media as a "test" launch. Wherever they are getting this from, it is wrong.
This is a routine event in every respect, except for the apparent implications for Hibernia and Terra Nova.
Massive Correction
In the post "Speaking of badly briefed" I made some comments on the Premier and his scrum yesterday flowing from a VOCM story this morning.
Based on new information from someone who was there and whose information I regard as accurate and factual I know want to make a massive, unequivocal correction, retracting my comments or any implication that the Premier had in any way linked the Titan booster to ballistic missile defence.
I have it on an authority I trust that the Premier made no link whatsoever between the two.
In response to a reporter's question on how this issue might affect the prospect of a ballistic missile defence installation at Goose Bay, the Premier repeated his support for the X Band radar at Goose Bay, as he would be expected to do.
It is completely erroneous to link the issue of BMD and the Titan booster issue. I withdraw any remarks I made on that subject without reservation or qualification as they relate to the Premier. No inference should be drawn from my remarks in the previous post as they were wrong.
In fact, I am going back and deleting it.
Based on new information from someone who was there and whose information I regard as accurate and factual I know want to make a massive, unequivocal correction, retracting my comments or any implication that the Premier had in any way linked the Titan booster to ballistic missile defence.
I have it on an authority I trust that the Premier made no link whatsoever between the two.
In response to a reporter's question on how this issue might affect the prospect of a ballistic missile defence installation at Goose Bay, the Premier repeated his support for the X Band radar at Goose Bay, as he would be expected to do.
It is completely erroneous to link the issue of BMD and the Titan booster issue. I withdraw any remarks I made on that subject without reservation or qualification as they relate to the Premier. No inference should be drawn from my remarks in the previous post as they were wrong.
In fact, I am going back and deleting it.
You read it here, first - the Space version - revised
As I told you yesterday, "Given the history of Titan 4B boosters, the repeated rescheduling of this mission and that the system is due to be phased out, I'd suspect the Americans are dealing with some mechanical issues."
As VOCM is reporting: "Meantime, the U.S. Air Force Space Command at Cape Canaveral says the launch was postponed because of mechanical problems with ground support equipment."
Go the US Air Force Space Command webpage and you'll see the schedule for launches at Canaveral. NROL-16 is still listed but with the launch date being "no earlier than 11 April 05".
In other coverage, the Canadian Press story is running in various forms in all the major newspapers. The Post is checking to see if Jean Brault mentioned anything about it in his explosive testimony before committing to coverage. Explosive testimony. Explosive missile. Do the math.
CBC's national has a script story and a video story [<--requires Real Player] by our own Chris O'Neill-Yates. (Psst Chris: the launch video you used is a submarine launched missile not a Titan)
As VOCM is reporting: "Meantime, the U.S. Air Force Space Command at Cape Canaveral says the launch was postponed because of mechanical problems with ground support equipment."
Go the US Air Force Space Command webpage and you'll see the schedule for launches at Canaveral. NROL-16 is still listed but with the launch date being "no earlier than 11 April 05".
In other coverage, the Canadian Press story is running in various forms in all the major newspapers. The Post is checking to see if Jean Brault mentioned anything about it in his explosive testimony before committing to coverage. Explosive testimony. Explosive missile. Do the math.
CBC's national has a script story and a video story [<--requires Real Player] by our own Chris O'Neill-Yates. (Psst Chris: the launch video you used is a submarine launched missile not a Titan)
07 April 2005
Re-entry debris footprints
It seems that a number of government officials are holding to their concern about the prospect that the Titan 4B booster scheduled to carry a classified US NRO payload into orbit from Florida will hit the "massive" Hibernia platform.
To see if we can help allay their almost phallicly-based concerns, here's some added information on the footprint left by falling space debris.
The Titan 4B is a two stage system. That means the payload is placed in orbit after it separates from a second stage that has carried it into space. The first stage and side-mounted boosters will have burned out and fallen back to Earth shortly after the launch.
While the Titan 4B may be a 10, 000 pound system fully loaded, the second stage will be returning to Earth the farthest of all debris from the launch point, will have broken up on reentry to Earth's atmosphere and will therefore consist of smaller bits and pieces than when it was fully assembled.
In the case of the system on the pad at Canaveral for the B-30 launch, there is no second stage. It's a 403B version. Therefore, the bulk of the debris will be even closer to the launch point in Florida.
That said, I draw attention to a description of a "debris footprint" from the FAQ at this site, kept up by the Center for Orbital and Reentry Debris Studies.
In particular pay attention to this paragraph:
"The footprint width is generally determined by the effects of wind on the falling debris objects, with heavy objects affected less, and lightest the most. The width of the footprint may also be affected by the breakup process itself. For example, if the object should explode during reentry, fragments will be spread out across the footprint. A footprint width of perhaps 20-40 km is typical, with the most pronounced effects near the heel of the footprint."
If you look at the nice little graphic on that site you will see a big red area on the map representing the surface area where debris may fall.
Until someone shows me the debris footprint for this particular launch, I am going to go out on a limb and say that the Hibernia and Terra Nova rigs were 15 miles outside the red zone representing the most like region of impact for all the bits and pieces of this Titan 4(03)B.
The odds of any bits striking these platforms was small.
And for the record, I give the Premier some slack when he said something about Americans being concerned about seals but not about missiles dropping on peoples' heads. He was a bit concerned, likely based on a poor briefing. Since he loves drama and hyperbole in equal measures, he could come up with a statement that is as accurate as the one uttered by a future Premier when he talked of turbot hanging on by their fingernails.
Fish don't have fingers.
To see if we can help allay their almost phallicly-based concerns, here's some added information on the footprint left by falling space debris.
The Titan 4B is a two stage system. That means the payload is placed in orbit after it separates from a second stage that has carried it into space. The first stage and side-mounted boosters will have burned out and fallen back to Earth shortly after the launch.
While the Titan 4B may be a 10, 000 pound system fully loaded, the second stage will be returning to Earth the farthest of all debris from the launch point, will have broken up on reentry to Earth's atmosphere and will therefore consist of smaller bits and pieces than when it was fully assembled.
In the case of the system on the pad at Canaveral for the B-30 launch, there is no second stage. It's a 403B version. Therefore, the bulk of the debris will be even closer to the launch point in Florida.
That said, I draw attention to a description of a "debris footprint" from the FAQ at this site, kept up by the Center for Orbital and Reentry Debris Studies.
In particular pay attention to this paragraph:
"The footprint width is generally determined by the effects of wind on the falling debris objects, with heavy objects affected less, and lightest the most. The width of the footprint may also be affected by the breakup process itself. For example, if the object should explode during reentry, fragments will be spread out across the footprint. A footprint width of perhaps 20-40 km is typical, with the most pronounced effects near the heel of the footprint."
If you look at the nice little graphic on that site you will see a big red area on the map representing the surface area where debris may fall.
Until someone shows me the debris footprint for this particular launch, I am going to go out on a limb and say that the Hibernia and Terra Nova rigs were 15 miles outside the red zone representing the most like region of impact for all the bits and pieces of this Titan 4(03)B.
The odds of any bits striking these platforms was small.
And for the record, I give the Premier some slack when he said something about Americans being concerned about seals but not about missiles dropping on peoples' heads. He was a bit concerned, likely based on a poor briefing. Since he loves drama and hyperbole in equal measures, he could come up with a statement that is as accurate as the one uttered by a future Premier when he talked of turbot hanging on by their fingernails.
Fish don't have fingers.
Look to the skys!
A bizarre afternoon in Newfoundland and Labrador, what with the Premier calling a hasty news conference to talk about American missiles falling from the sky and coming close to the "massive" Hibernia platform. Such was the panic that there was a plan to evacuate the Hibernia platform and the Terra Nova FPSO and tow another semi-submersible rig out of the potential impact area.
Well, here's what it was really all about.
- This launch has been scheduled for some time, according to both the Kennedy Centre website and other sites on the net that track missile launches globally. One site reports this payload was originally scheduled for a launch in 2001 at Vandenberg air force base in California. The mission was subsequently moved to Canaveral. It has been scheduled and rescheduled at least three times since late March owing to problems reportedly with the payload or with ground equipment.
- The mission, labeled B-30, is a launch by the United States Air Force of a classified payload labeled NROL-16 for the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) , using a Titan 4B booster from Cape Canaveral, Florida. In plain English, it's a "spy" satellite, although I dislike that term for a variety of reasons. Here's a link with some speculation on the payload and other details. Here's another link with even more detail on the possible payload, a radar imaging satellite similar to several launched in the late 1990s and 2000.
- This is one of the last launches for the Titan 4B. It is getting old and costly. In fact some of the delays in this mission have been due to equipment problems related to the booster. Here's a piece from the roll-out last fall.
- These satellites are usually placed in very specific orbits and together with others provide complete global coverage. There is some room to adjust launch trajectories but I'd guess not a heck of a lot.
- This is nothing new. Boosters and other missile bits have been falling into the sea off Newfoundland for as long as there have been missiles launched from Florida. In the 1980s two US Navy range telemetry ships stopped in port. I still have pictures of the visit of USNS Range Sentinel.
- I'd venture there have been other launches in the general direction of the Hibernia platform before on a similar trajectory.
- Each of these launches involves the booster burning up on re-entry although pieces of the booster will return to Earth. To estimate the chances of having something hit Hibernia, do the following: Stand on top of the Fortis Building. Using a penny, hit the postage stamp I have laid in the middle of Water Street. Keep your eyes closed throughout.
- As part of the normal planning for an event like this, the launching agency would prepare a footprint giving an anticipated zone in which debris will fall. This is shown as an ellipse on a map and several larger ellipses around it representing areas where it is less likely but possible that debris may strike.
Each of these zones would be tens of kilometres wide.
The big issue here is where within that footprint map the Hibernia rig fell.
- In Ottawa, this launch would have been part of the normal intelligence briefings at DND for senior officers and officials and senior ministers would have been briefed as well. PCO has a section that would have noticed it and it appears cabinet was actually briefed today.
- It would be normal for senior ministers (DND and Public Security) as well as senior officials to contact their US counterparts to express concern at the proximity to the oilfields. Their ability to influence things would be minor in dealing with a sensitive payload like this unless there was plenty of room to pick a different trajectory.
- While it is possible the US planners missed the Hibernia rig in their planning, I'd doubt it very much for a whole bunch of reasons. Danny Williams suggestion that they goofed is a typical bit of Williams fantasy.
- The simple fact is that the rig is massive only if you are one person standing right next to it. From 180 miles in space across a vast sea it is a fixed spot. The chances of hitting the rig or any other man-made object are slim. The launch was scheduled for about 2230 EDT (0000 NDT) for a reason: less air traffic. The Americans also issue routine warnings to mariners to avoid specific areas as a normal precaution.
- The problem in assessing Danny Williams' comments about 15 miles is that we have no idea who briefed him and what they told him. Reporters should take his comments with a bag of salt. It appears from some of his comments that the Premier was briefed by officials and did not get information from senior federal officials directly.
Is the rig 15 miles outside the high probability impact zone? Well, that zone would be miles wide. My guess is that some official didn't get complete information and if they did, they didn't interpret it correctly. That led to a legitimate level of anxiety on the Premier's part and the subsequent news conference.
Basically, the Newfoundland government has no internal capability to assess anything defence related. They are at the mercy of a bunch of factors, including a complete lack of experience in dealing with this sort of issue. Given that everyone, officials and politicians are well removed from the major analysis sites in Ottawa, the chance for misunderstanding and miscommunication are magnified.
I could recount stories of Davis Inlet and the first Gulf War but that is for another time. This is not about which party is in power; it is about a lack of expertise within the provincial government.
- The American delay, described as being either for 48 hours or indefinitely depending on who is reporting it, likely has nothing to do with Canadian concerns. Given the history of Titan 4B boosters, the repeated rescheduling of this mission and that the system is due to be phased out, I'd suspect the Americans are dealing with some mechanical issues.
Well, here's what it was really all about.
- This launch has been scheduled for some time, according to both the Kennedy Centre website and other sites on the net that track missile launches globally. One site reports this payload was originally scheduled for a launch in 2001 at Vandenberg air force base in California. The mission was subsequently moved to Canaveral. It has been scheduled and rescheduled at least three times since late March owing to problems reportedly with the payload or with ground equipment.
- The mission, labeled B-30, is a launch by the United States Air Force of a classified payload labeled NROL-16 for the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) , using a Titan 4B booster from Cape Canaveral, Florida. In plain English, it's a "spy" satellite, although I dislike that term for a variety of reasons. Here's a link with some speculation on the payload and other details. Here's another link with even more detail on the possible payload, a radar imaging satellite similar to several launched in the late 1990s and 2000.
- This is one of the last launches for the Titan 4B. It is getting old and costly. In fact some of the delays in this mission have been due to equipment problems related to the booster. Here's a piece from the roll-out last fall.
- These satellites are usually placed in very specific orbits and together with others provide complete global coverage. There is some room to adjust launch trajectories but I'd guess not a heck of a lot.
- This is nothing new. Boosters and other missile bits have been falling into the sea off Newfoundland for as long as there have been missiles launched from Florida. In the 1980s two US Navy range telemetry ships stopped in port. I still have pictures of the visit of USNS Range Sentinel.
- I'd venture there have been other launches in the general direction of the Hibernia platform before on a similar trajectory.
- Each of these launches involves the booster burning up on re-entry although pieces of the booster will return to Earth. To estimate the chances of having something hit Hibernia, do the following: Stand on top of the Fortis Building. Using a penny, hit the postage stamp I have laid in the middle of Water Street. Keep your eyes closed throughout.
- As part of the normal planning for an event like this, the launching agency would prepare a footprint giving an anticipated zone in which debris will fall. This is shown as an ellipse on a map and several larger ellipses around it representing areas where it is less likely but possible that debris may strike.
Each of these zones would be tens of kilometres wide.
The big issue here is where within that footprint map the Hibernia rig fell.
- In Ottawa, this launch would have been part of the normal intelligence briefings at DND for senior officers and officials and senior ministers would have been briefed as well. PCO has a section that would have noticed it and it appears cabinet was actually briefed today.
- It would be normal for senior ministers (DND and Public Security) as well as senior officials to contact their US counterparts to express concern at the proximity to the oilfields. Their ability to influence things would be minor in dealing with a sensitive payload like this unless there was plenty of room to pick a different trajectory.
- While it is possible the US planners missed the Hibernia rig in their planning, I'd doubt it very much for a whole bunch of reasons. Danny Williams suggestion that they goofed is a typical bit of Williams fantasy.
- The simple fact is that the rig is massive only if you are one person standing right next to it. From 180 miles in space across a vast sea it is a fixed spot. The chances of hitting the rig or any other man-made object are slim. The launch was scheduled for about 2230 EDT (0000 NDT) for a reason: less air traffic. The Americans also issue routine warnings to mariners to avoid specific areas as a normal precaution.
- The problem in assessing Danny Williams' comments about 15 miles is that we have no idea who briefed him and what they told him. Reporters should take his comments with a bag of salt. It appears from some of his comments that the Premier was briefed by officials and did not get information from senior federal officials directly.
Is the rig 15 miles outside the high probability impact zone? Well, that zone would be miles wide. My guess is that some official didn't get complete information and if they did, they didn't interpret it correctly. That led to a legitimate level of anxiety on the Premier's part and the subsequent news conference.
Basically, the Newfoundland government has no internal capability to assess anything defence related. They are at the mercy of a bunch of factors, including a complete lack of experience in dealing with this sort of issue. Given that everyone, officials and politicians are well removed from the major analysis sites in Ottawa, the chance for misunderstanding and miscommunication are magnified.
I could recount stories of Davis Inlet and the first Gulf War but that is for another time. This is not about which party is in power; it is about a lack of expertise within the provincial government.
- The American delay, described as being either for 48 hours or indefinitely depending on who is reporting it, likely has nothing to do with Canadian concerns. Given the history of Titan 4B boosters, the repeated rescheduling of this mission and that the system is due to be phased out, I'd suspect the Americans are dealing with some mechanical issues.
Explosive Ordnance Disposal
EOD.
Paul Wells has been waging a valiant, if seemingly futile campaign to diffuse the Gomery testimony story, criticize the media use of the word "explosive" when discussing it, and drag the whole discussion onto something less prurient. I use the term advisedly, given that some people seem to derive a strange fetishistic state of arousal these days when the word Gomery is used. Use your imaginations.
So today he just links to all the media outlets still describing testimony last week before Justice Gomery as being explosive.
Paul makes a valid point, and one apparently not lost on one Stephen Harper. His sound bite for today (left over from yesterday) has been about the need to find a new message for Quebeckers besides corruption or separation. He tosses this one on the table in discussing the prospect the Cons will vote to defeat the government on a Bloc non-confidence motion due next week.
Anyway, those with long memories will chuckle at the idea of Conservatives, progressive or otherwise, presuming to lecture on the need for a new message for Quebec.
Anyway, while Paul is tackling the intellectual road, let's wander over to the one I sometimes travel, namely the low road of sarcasm and ridicule.
What kind of explosive is this Gomery testimony, one might inquire of the scribblers busily recycling their Gomery phrases for outlets like the Sun chain, the Globe and even Reuters.
There a nuclear explosions that kill everything and leave the landscape uninhabitable for centuries. Personally, I'd suggest Paul's upcoming essay is going to lean to the idea that the whole Gomery tesitmony discussion is of the nookyoolur explosion kind. Self-frickin immolation. And without the black humour of Dr. Strangelove.
There are plain old high explosives which kill everything within a certain radius from the blast and injure dozens more. Possibility. I could buy that interpretation potentially.
There is a fuel-air explosion, in which gas fumes seep into every crack and then get ignited. Big bang. Lots of flame and much scorching.
This should not be confused with napalm, which is one of the genuinely nastiest kinds of explosions there is. Opposition types might like Gomery to be napalm dropped on the bastions of the Liberal Party. Tends to produce something called crispy critters.
But being a father of two children both of whom were breast-fed, the only word I viscerally associate with "explosive" is a bowel movement.
I still remember the look on my father's face as he held his first grandchild just as Number One Son of Number One Son did what nature intended. Big noise. Distressing motion inside the diaper and the house. Foul odor. Severe look of concern on Grandpa, who had little experience with these things and thought something truly hideous was about to occur. But it was quickly wiped up and life went on. The grown-ups went back to talking about something they needed to worry about while other processes worked as they should.
Far be it from me to drag this little metaphor all the way into the depths to which one could go. Heck it may be a totally unworkable metaphor. Suffice to say that political dialogue nationally has sunk to what amounts to little more than the results of my son's feasting. Big noise. Distressing motions in the House. Really bad smell. Look of concern.
But ultimately, this matter will wind up in a bin somewhere.
And while we are paying attention to the noise, some major issues we should be worried about - like the ones Paul will likely raise - are going unattended.
If the guys in Ottawa are dumb enough to blunder into an election over this load, I'd wager that the electorate will reward them appropriately.
For the love of heaven and the country, will some politician in Ottawa please start talking about major national issues?
Let the courts and police and the Gomery Inquisition do their jobs.
Maybe it's the fear of the diaper pail that has Mr. Harper changing his tune today.
Or maybe Paul's pleadings are finally penetrating someone's skull.
Paul Wells has been waging a valiant, if seemingly futile campaign to diffuse the Gomery testimony story, criticize the media use of the word "explosive" when discussing it, and drag the whole discussion onto something less prurient. I use the term advisedly, given that some people seem to derive a strange fetishistic state of arousal these days when the word Gomery is used. Use your imaginations.
So today he just links to all the media outlets still describing testimony last week before Justice Gomery as being explosive.
Paul makes a valid point, and one apparently not lost on one Stephen Harper. His sound bite for today (left over from yesterday) has been about the need to find a new message for Quebeckers besides corruption or separation. He tosses this one on the table in discussing the prospect the Cons will vote to defeat the government on a Bloc non-confidence motion due next week.
Anyway, those with long memories will chuckle at the idea of Conservatives, progressive or otherwise, presuming to lecture on the need for a new message for Quebec.
Anyway, while Paul is tackling the intellectual road, let's wander over to the one I sometimes travel, namely the low road of sarcasm and ridicule.
What kind of explosive is this Gomery testimony, one might inquire of the scribblers busily recycling their Gomery phrases for outlets like the Sun chain, the Globe and even Reuters.
There a nuclear explosions that kill everything and leave the landscape uninhabitable for centuries. Personally, I'd suggest Paul's upcoming essay is going to lean to the idea that the whole Gomery tesitmony discussion is of the nookyoolur explosion kind. Self-frickin immolation. And without the black humour of Dr. Strangelove.
There are plain old high explosives which kill everything within a certain radius from the blast and injure dozens more. Possibility. I could buy that interpretation potentially.
There is a fuel-air explosion, in which gas fumes seep into every crack and then get ignited. Big bang. Lots of flame and much scorching.
This should not be confused with napalm, which is one of the genuinely nastiest kinds of explosions there is. Opposition types might like Gomery to be napalm dropped on the bastions of the Liberal Party. Tends to produce something called crispy critters.
But being a father of two children both of whom were breast-fed, the only word I viscerally associate with "explosive" is a bowel movement.
I still remember the look on my father's face as he held his first grandchild just as Number One Son of Number One Son did what nature intended. Big noise. Distressing motion inside the diaper and the house. Foul odor. Severe look of concern on Grandpa, who had little experience with these things and thought something truly hideous was about to occur. But it was quickly wiped up and life went on. The grown-ups went back to talking about something they needed to worry about while other processes worked as they should.
Far be it from me to drag this little metaphor all the way into the depths to which one could go. Heck it may be a totally unworkable metaphor. Suffice to say that political dialogue nationally has sunk to what amounts to little more than the results of my son's feasting. Big noise. Distressing motions in the House. Really bad smell. Look of concern.
But ultimately, this matter will wind up in a bin somewhere.
And while we are paying attention to the noise, some major issues we should be worried about - like the ones Paul will likely raise - are going unattended.
If the guys in Ottawa are dumb enough to blunder into an election over this load, I'd wager that the electorate will reward them appropriately.
For the love of heaven and the country, will some politician in Ottawa please start talking about major national issues?
Let the courts and police and the Gomery Inquisition do their jobs.
Maybe it's the fear of the diaper pail that has Mr. Harper changing his tune today.
Or maybe Paul's pleadings are finally penetrating someone's skull.
Who'd waste the ammo?
Bullets are expensive these days.
That's why this little news story looks more like headline grabbing sensationalism than a serious decision taken based on a thorough threat assessment.
With the exception of Martin Sheen, who did a little ad for Paul Watson's crowd, pretty well every "celebrity" I have seen working the PETA/IFAW circuit lately has been a has-been more likely to turn up on some abysmal cable-tv reality show than in a movie anyone has paid money to see.
Like Elizabeth Berkley. Without exception, the movies listed on her IMDB entry are ones I have never seen and will never see because, to put it bluntly, they suck. Liz may be busier than the guy who played Screech, but I bet he has a steady paycheque that doesn't involve boring audiences to death.
As for Anna Nicole Smith from the link above, I would have pitched the story as an environmental one. Out of fear that a stray bullet at the ice flows would release industrial quantities of silicone, Anna is staying away so she doesn't harm the cuddly baby seals.
More plausible, for one thing.
I am starting to think that the people who book acts for Mile One use the same agency that finds celebs for Paul Watson.
Look guys, Frank Gorshin is still available.
As is Charles Napier.
ditto Expendible Crewman Number 3 from "Space Seed".
And Tiffani Thiessen.
Oh wait.
Maybe not: check out the picture gallery. Is that a real fur barely covering her ample and perchance artificially enhanced assets?
At least Tiff is a "Saved by the bell" alumna with her own website.
That's why this little news story looks more like headline grabbing sensationalism than a serious decision taken based on a thorough threat assessment.
With the exception of Martin Sheen, who did a little ad for Paul Watson's crowd, pretty well every "celebrity" I have seen working the PETA/IFAW circuit lately has been a has-been more likely to turn up on some abysmal cable-tv reality show than in a movie anyone has paid money to see.
Like Elizabeth Berkley. Without exception, the movies listed on her IMDB entry are ones I have never seen and will never see because, to put it bluntly, they suck. Liz may be busier than the guy who played Screech, but I bet he has a steady paycheque that doesn't involve boring audiences to death.
As for Anna Nicole Smith from the link above, I would have pitched the story as an environmental one. Out of fear that a stray bullet at the ice flows would release industrial quantities of silicone, Anna is staying away so she doesn't harm the cuddly baby seals.
More plausible, for one thing.
I am starting to think that the people who book acts for Mile One use the same agency that finds celebs for Paul Watson.
Look guys, Frank Gorshin is still available.
As is Charles Napier.
ditto Expendible Crewman Number 3 from "Space Seed".
And Tiffani Thiessen.
Oh wait.
Maybe not: check out the picture gallery. Is that a real fur barely covering her ample and perchance artificially enhanced assets?
At least Tiff is a "Saved by the bell" alumna with her own website.
Blarney and buds threaten province's future
Blarney the Dinosaur from Up the Shore is at it again, according to a VOCM story posted this morning. This little news outlet deserves an award for saying the most with the least number of words:
"St. John's South-Mount Pearl MP Loyola Hearn [known to many as Blarney] says the Liberal government is using the longest possible route to approve the Atlantic Accord. [Blarney] Hearn suggested it would take only minutes to rework the accord."
Ok.
Not to really Harp-er on this but the Atlantic Accord was signed and approved in the 1980s, Blarney. I know it was back in the Cretaceous period of your political career, Blarney, but surely you remembered bobbing up and down in your seat to vote for that piece of paper Brian Peckford (your boss at the time) was waving around?
What is currently in front of the Commons is a budget-related bill authorizing the federal government to hand over cash to this province under certain conditions. It is closely related to most of the other provisions of Bill C-43. Except for the ones upsetting Blarney and his friends.
And that's where Blarney's comments start to look like what they are: coprolites.
The federal government has already agreed to drop the Kyoto provisions of Bill C-43 that have Blarney and his carbon dioxide exhaling pals emitting higher than usual levels of both CO2 and fossilized fecal matter.
So what happened when the "crisis" looked like it was about to be solved?
Blarney and his buds decided that basking in the warmth of the media sun was worth more to Opposition than actually doing the job they get paid to do. Count the number of mentions of Conservative politicians this weekend versus say when they had their big policy convention.
Except for Peter Mackay's hysterically funny comments on betrayal, the whole weekend was like a policy Ice Age - no idea worth talking about could survive the "No Controversy" chill from Harper and his cohorts.
So people fell asleep.
Only to be re-awakened by one of the most contrived "crises" since the last "conspiracy" spotted by our Premier.
And every day Blarney and his buds shag around with this issue, they are threatening the province's financial future.
If they actually had anything of merit to talk about, they would be saying it.
That they spend all their time pointing fingers at other people should be a big clue as to what Blarney and his gang are really saying not about the Libs but about themselves.
"St. John's South-Mount Pearl MP Loyola Hearn [known to many as Blarney] says the Liberal government is using the longest possible route to approve the Atlantic Accord. [Blarney] Hearn suggested it would take only minutes to rework the accord."
Ok.
Not to really Harp-er on this but the Atlantic Accord was signed and approved in the 1980s, Blarney. I know it was back in the Cretaceous period of your political career, Blarney, but surely you remembered bobbing up and down in your seat to vote for that piece of paper Brian Peckford (your boss at the time) was waving around?
What is currently in front of the Commons is a budget-related bill authorizing the federal government to hand over cash to this province under certain conditions. It is closely related to most of the other provisions of Bill C-43. Except for the ones upsetting Blarney and his friends.
And that's where Blarney's comments start to look like what they are: coprolites.
The federal government has already agreed to drop the Kyoto provisions of Bill C-43 that have Blarney and his carbon dioxide exhaling pals emitting higher than usual levels of both CO2 and fossilized fecal matter.
So what happened when the "crisis" looked like it was about to be solved?
Blarney and his buds decided that basking in the warmth of the media sun was worth more to Opposition than actually doing the job they get paid to do. Count the number of mentions of Conservative politicians this weekend versus say when they had their big policy convention.
Except for Peter Mackay's hysterically funny comments on betrayal, the whole weekend was like a policy Ice Age - no idea worth talking about could survive the "No Controversy" chill from Harper and his cohorts.
So people fell asleep.
Only to be re-awakened by one of the most contrived "crises" since the last "conspiracy" spotted by our Premier.
And every day Blarney and his buds shag around with this issue, they are threatening the province's financial future.
If they actually had anything of merit to talk about, they would be saying it.
That they spend all their time pointing fingers at other people should be a big clue as to what Blarney and his gang are really saying not about the Libs but about themselves.
06 April 2005
Talking like an oil techie
Here are some links to sites that describe different types of crude oil.
First, we have Platt's Oil Guide which gives a general description of crude types from around the globe. Note especially the API gravity for each type. The bigger the number, the lighter the crude and hence the ease with which it can be refined into a wide range of consumer products.
Second, here is a link to Hibernia and Terra Nova crude specifications. Go back and compare the stuff from these wells with other crude types.
First, we have Platt's Oil Guide which gives a general description of crude types from around the globe. Note especially the API gravity for each type. The bigger the number, the lighter the crude and hence the ease with which it can be refined into a wide range of consumer products.
Second, here is a link to Hibernia and Terra Nova crude specifications. Go back and compare the stuff from these wells with other crude types.
Hebron development in context (updated)
There is plenty of rejoicing at the news today from the Hebron consortium that the partners are closer to filing a development application. They have an agreement among themselves on a bunch of things.
There are a few more steps to go and, as David Cochrane reported on CBC Radio this afternoon it could be 2012 before we see first oil. Next we should see a development application (if I understand correctly) which will include local benefits proposals, a development mode and all the things necessary to start hearings.
The Premier is suitably excited, although he cautioned the proponents, led by Chevron Canada, that the province will expect improved benefits over previous developments. He singled out royalties, local construction and supply and secondary processing (read refining).
Ok. We'll let's just take a step back and look at some issues that will affect the outcomes.
First let's see what overall circumstances affect the context of these upcoming talks.
1. The provincial energy minister has control over approval since the security of supply provisions of the Real Atlantic Accord are satisfied. You can find the Real Accord along with a ton of other useful information on the regulatory process at the Canada-Newfoundland Offshore Petroleum Board website.
2. High oil prices forecasted to last well into the future make this a viable project with less of the fear of it being "marginal" like Hibernia was considered to be. There won't be any demand for government loans and loan guarantees.
3. The provincial government has bags of cash and no fear of sudden financial ruin. As a consequence, there is much less pressure to sign a good deal when something slightly better might be attainable. The Premier can slag Grimes for trying to entice the Hebron consortium a few years ago, but he should be fair in his comments. He has a distressing tendency to play a game of "neener-neener-neener" with public policy issues. Danny Williams has benefited from improved overall circumstances, not necessarily his superlative management skills, his spin machine to the contrary.
Put the two situations in context; make a fair comment. Personally, I learned a long time ago to walk a mile in someone else's shoes or face a genuinely tough situation before I start to pat myself on the back. There are times when Danny Williams' comments sound a lot like: "There'll be no more of this sun going down thing in the daytime while I am here. I won't be repeating the same sunshine mistakes of that guy who was here on the night shift, giving away our precious solar resource and settling for too much blackness."
4. In Hibernia, the province pushed the expensive GBS platform on the companies, driving up costs on an expensive project. That led directly to decreased government revenues in the long-term as companies sought offsets.
5. In this case, the proponents are already favouring a smaller GBS. They can't build that anywhere - the closer to the site the better - therefore the companies themselves have automatically boosted local industrial benefits as part of their start-up calculations. The government doesn't have to say a word to automatically start out with greater benefits than previous projects.
Expect to see the GBS built at Marystown where the private-sector yard is efficient. Bull Arm might get the work but here's hoping the companies resist working with a Crown-owned entity. Better for government to dispose of Bull Arm to the private sector, otherwise, the companies are likely to drive some hard - and I mean hard - bargains to guarantee quality of work, low costs and firm timeline guarantees.
6. Note that the Hebron GBS is preferred because of the conditions of the field involved. Comparing Hebron to Terra Nova or White Rose is a foolish, specious comparison. Danny Williams can claim that previous governments didn't ask for enough but the truth is something different.
7. In the broader context, look cautiously at what the province may be cooking up in its idea of a new Crown-owned energy mega-corporation or Crown-owned oil company.
8. Background and technical stuff: If you flip back to the archives there are some posts with links to some background information on the offshore and other oil issues.
- The US government Annual Energy Outlook 2005, with forecast to 2025 covers every source of energy on which the US depends. Here's the link.
- Here's an assessment of the value of the Hebron field from Chevron Canada analyst Deborah Provais.
- If you want to understand what API is and the implications, try this link. Go here before you read the Chevron assessment to get a full appreciation of what the oil look like in the Hebron field.
Second, let's look at the Premier's comments on enhanced local benefits. Premier Williams singled out three ways to increase benefits and basically the first two are the ways one would normally expect to see benefits flowing.
Royalties: By negotiating a special royalties deal, the Premier would be throwing away the generic royalty regime which is actually competitive in the marketplace and produces significant cash benefits for the province. Terra Nova is paying off early and moving to higher levels of benefits under the existing regime. Expect White Rose to do the same, much to the benefit of the province.
Incidentally, the only deal that is really less lucrative for the province as a whole than was expected is the Peckford Hibernia deal. Note that all the people whining are the people responsible for that mess; all the people blaming the Liberals for lousy deals on Terra Nova and White Rose are people like Brian Peckford. Let's just say they have an interest in deflecting attention away from their progeny.
In turn , they will point out that Hibernia was signed by the Wells government, but I am here to tell you it was largely done by the time Wells came along. Peckford had already forced the GBS on the proponents and bargained away the royalties.
Turning back to the current situation, there is a possibility of enhancing the royalty regime. But, and this is a big but, putting royalties in play allows for a Peckford-style trade off of cash for jobs. Keep your eye on that ball to see what actually happens.
Local Supplier Benefits/Construction: Watch for a few things here.
As noted, we are likely to get increased industrial benefits in the province due to GBS construction before Danny Williams lifts a finger. We might lose some cash along the way if Bull Arm becomes the construction site and we fail to meet cost, performance and quality targets through the Crown-owned site. There are a bunch of factors that will impact on the final contract. Let's take this deal (or lack of a deal) on its merits, based on facts.
Look for NOIA, the local supplier association, to start pushing for the Premier to insist that local companies get first look at supply work based on geography moreso than competitiveness. They have pushed for this approach on the past two projects and gotten nowhere fast.
In the offshore revenue struggle, NOIA gave Ottawa the finger and fawned over the Premier in the hopes of achieving some unspecified goal. Danny Williams owes them something or I am sure they feel he does. If he spurns their advances, NOIA will be "oh" for three on boosting local participation in the industry through government policy.
Personally I think NOIA does its members a bit of a disservice when it comes to government relations, but hey, I don't pay NOIA membership dues.
Paging John Shaheen! The Peckfordites long dreamt of a massive petrochemical industry here, turning Newfoundland and Labrador into a cross between the Persian Gulf and Alberta. It was more like a grander version of Come by Chance but fortunately for taxpayers pockets, reality was indeed another concept.
Not too surprising therefore that the Tory's last Blue Book resurrected every old hope of an oil refinery on the site of every old fish plant.
Here's where things could get really curious.
Heavy crude, like the stuff coming from Hebron, requires some expensive and complex refining unless you want to produce something really simple like asphalt. In the current marketplace and in the near-term, we can expect to see increasing pressure to maximize the refining of even heavy crude so that it produces as much petrol and other "light" products as possible.
Refining capacity is growing again, after many years of sluggishness and a surplus capacity in the 1980s. The most rapid growth is in Asia according to US government forecasts, while in the US, where the largest capacity exists, emphasis is on increasing capacity at existing operations and making them much more efficient.
There is a shortage of heavy crude refining capacity. The Saudis have the oil. The problem is there is such a shortage of capacity that the Saudis have actually had to sell the grades of heavy crude at deep discounts in recent months. There is plenty of oil and a sluggishness in the development of capacity to handle heavy crude.
In general though, there is much international interest in refineries that are located close to major markets. That's a key point here: close to markets. Venezuela's state-owned oil company operated refining capacity in the southern US, the Kuwaitis bought refineries and gas stations across Europe and most recently Russia's major oil company has expanded its refining and distribution systems.
But they did it right at the doorstep of the market. The big reason I would point to is the relatively high cost of refining heavy crude compared to lighter oil like the stuff from Hibernia. Heavy crude is expensive to extract and expensive to refine. It attracts a lower per barrel price as a consequence so it has some unique cost issues. Put the refinery on the North American mainland and it is merely a railcar journey or pipeline trip away from a major market or distribution node.
Building a refining capacity here does not seem to be an economically viable idea on the face of it, that is, without government concessions. While the rest of this enhanced benefits piece profits from significant positive changes in the overall situation, trying to build downstream petroleum processing here seems to be a step backward.
Here's a piece of this entire story that is worth watching extremely closely. Opening up the royalties could look good on the face of it, but in practice it might wind up being a Hibernia style trade off as we subsidize jobs with government revenues.
Yet again.
Look even more closely to see if government actually tries to use Hebron as a springboard for its own energy corporation, or Petro-Newf as I lovingly call it. I am naturally cautious of people who want to use public assets (like my tax-cash) and use it to muscle their way into the bigger private sector plays. It's usually a bad idea. They particularly might look at refining as an oil-related asset Petro-Newf could work on developing .
Basically, it comes down to this:
1. The Hebron announcement today is good news for the province.
2. The provincial government will already see significantly better benefits from a Hebron project than from others due to changed domestic and international circumstances.
3. Keep a close eye on what the provincial government actually does in negotiations versus what it says it will do or is doing.
4. Keep a really watchful eye on Petro-Newf to see if it makes a comeback through Hebron.
There are a few more steps to go and, as David Cochrane reported on CBC Radio this afternoon it could be 2012 before we see first oil. Next we should see a development application (if I understand correctly) which will include local benefits proposals, a development mode and all the things necessary to start hearings.
The Premier is suitably excited, although he cautioned the proponents, led by Chevron Canada, that the province will expect improved benefits over previous developments. He singled out royalties, local construction and supply and secondary processing (read refining).
Ok. We'll let's just take a step back and look at some issues that will affect the outcomes.
First let's see what overall circumstances affect the context of these upcoming talks.
1. The provincial energy minister has control over approval since the security of supply provisions of the Real Atlantic Accord are satisfied. You can find the Real Accord along with a ton of other useful information on the regulatory process at the Canada-Newfoundland Offshore Petroleum Board website.
2. High oil prices forecasted to last well into the future make this a viable project with less of the fear of it being "marginal" like Hibernia was considered to be. There won't be any demand for government loans and loan guarantees.
3. The provincial government has bags of cash and no fear of sudden financial ruin. As a consequence, there is much less pressure to sign a good deal when something slightly better might be attainable. The Premier can slag Grimes for trying to entice the Hebron consortium a few years ago, but he should be fair in his comments. He has a distressing tendency to play a game of "neener-neener-neener" with public policy issues. Danny Williams has benefited from improved overall circumstances, not necessarily his superlative management skills, his spin machine to the contrary.
Put the two situations in context; make a fair comment. Personally, I learned a long time ago to walk a mile in someone else's shoes or face a genuinely tough situation before I start to pat myself on the back. There are times when Danny Williams' comments sound a lot like: "There'll be no more of this sun going down thing in the daytime while I am here. I won't be repeating the same sunshine mistakes of that guy who was here on the night shift, giving away our precious solar resource and settling for too much blackness."
4. In Hibernia, the province pushed the expensive GBS platform on the companies, driving up costs on an expensive project. That led directly to decreased government revenues in the long-term as companies sought offsets.
5. In this case, the proponents are already favouring a smaller GBS. They can't build that anywhere - the closer to the site the better - therefore the companies themselves have automatically boosted local industrial benefits as part of their start-up calculations. The government doesn't have to say a word to automatically start out with greater benefits than previous projects.
Expect to see the GBS built at Marystown where the private-sector yard is efficient. Bull Arm might get the work but here's hoping the companies resist working with a Crown-owned entity. Better for government to dispose of Bull Arm to the private sector, otherwise, the companies are likely to drive some hard - and I mean hard - bargains to guarantee quality of work, low costs and firm timeline guarantees.
6. Note that the Hebron GBS is preferred because of the conditions of the field involved. Comparing Hebron to Terra Nova or White Rose is a foolish, specious comparison. Danny Williams can claim that previous governments didn't ask for enough but the truth is something different.
7. In the broader context, look cautiously at what the province may be cooking up in its idea of a new Crown-owned energy mega-corporation or Crown-owned oil company.
8. Background and technical stuff: If you flip back to the archives there are some posts with links to some background information on the offshore and other oil issues.
- The US government Annual Energy Outlook 2005, with forecast to 2025 covers every source of energy on which the US depends. Here's the link.
- Here's an assessment of the value of the Hebron field from Chevron Canada analyst Deborah Provais.
- If you want to understand what API is and the implications, try this link. Go here before you read the Chevron assessment to get a full appreciation of what the oil look like in the Hebron field.
Second, let's look at the Premier's comments on enhanced local benefits. Premier Williams singled out three ways to increase benefits and basically the first two are the ways one would normally expect to see benefits flowing.
Royalties: By negotiating a special royalties deal, the Premier would be throwing away the generic royalty regime which is actually competitive in the marketplace and produces significant cash benefits for the province. Terra Nova is paying off early and moving to higher levels of benefits under the existing regime. Expect White Rose to do the same, much to the benefit of the province.
Incidentally, the only deal that is really less lucrative for the province as a whole than was expected is the Peckford Hibernia deal. Note that all the people whining are the people responsible for that mess; all the people blaming the Liberals for lousy deals on Terra Nova and White Rose are people like Brian Peckford. Let's just say they have an interest in deflecting attention away from their progeny.
In turn , they will point out that Hibernia was signed by the Wells government, but I am here to tell you it was largely done by the time Wells came along. Peckford had already forced the GBS on the proponents and bargained away the royalties.
Turning back to the current situation, there is a possibility of enhancing the royalty regime. But, and this is a big but, putting royalties in play allows for a Peckford-style trade off of cash for jobs. Keep your eye on that ball to see what actually happens.
Local Supplier Benefits/Construction: Watch for a few things here.
As noted, we are likely to get increased industrial benefits in the province due to GBS construction before Danny Williams lifts a finger. We might lose some cash along the way if Bull Arm becomes the construction site and we fail to meet cost, performance and quality targets through the Crown-owned site. There are a bunch of factors that will impact on the final contract. Let's take this deal (or lack of a deal) on its merits, based on facts.
Look for NOIA, the local supplier association, to start pushing for the Premier to insist that local companies get first look at supply work based on geography moreso than competitiveness. They have pushed for this approach on the past two projects and gotten nowhere fast.
In the offshore revenue struggle, NOIA gave Ottawa the finger and fawned over the Premier in the hopes of achieving some unspecified goal. Danny Williams owes them something or I am sure they feel he does. If he spurns their advances, NOIA will be "oh" for three on boosting local participation in the industry through government policy.
Personally I think NOIA does its members a bit of a disservice when it comes to government relations, but hey, I don't pay NOIA membership dues.
Paging John Shaheen! The Peckfordites long dreamt of a massive petrochemical industry here, turning Newfoundland and Labrador into a cross between the Persian Gulf and Alberta. It was more like a grander version of Come by Chance but fortunately for taxpayers pockets, reality was indeed another concept.
Not too surprising therefore that the Tory's last Blue Book resurrected every old hope of an oil refinery on the site of every old fish plant.
Here's where things could get really curious.
Heavy crude, like the stuff coming from Hebron, requires some expensive and complex refining unless you want to produce something really simple like asphalt. In the current marketplace and in the near-term, we can expect to see increasing pressure to maximize the refining of even heavy crude so that it produces as much petrol and other "light" products as possible.
Refining capacity is growing again, after many years of sluggishness and a surplus capacity in the 1980s. The most rapid growth is in Asia according to US government forecasts, while in the US, where the largest capacity exists, emphasis is on increasing capacity at existing operations and making them much more efficient.
There is a shortage of heavy crude refining capacity. The Saudis have the oil. The problem is there is such a shortage of capacity that the Saudis have actually had to sell the grades of heavy crude at deep discounts in recent months. There is plenty of oil and a sluggishness in the development of capacity to handle heavy crude.
In general though, there is much international interest in refineries that are located close to major markets. That's a key point here: close to markets. Venezuela's state-owned oil company operated refining capacity in the southern US, the Kuwaitis bought refineries and gas stations across Europe and most recently Russia's major oil company has expanded its refining and distribution systems.
But they did it right at the doorstep of the market. The big reason I would point to is the relatively high cost of refining heavy crude compared to lighter oil like the stuff from Hibernia. Heavy crude is expensive to extract and expensive to refine. It attracts a lower per barrel price as a consequence so it has some unique cost issues. Put the refinery on the North American mainland and it is merely a railcar journey or pipeline trip away from a major market or distribution node.
Building a refining capacity here does not seem to be an economically viable idea on the face of it, that is, without government concessions. While the rest of this enhanced benefits piece profits from significant positive changes in the overall situation, trying to build downstream petroleum processing here seems to be a step backward.
Here's a piece of this entire story that is worth watching extremely closely. Opening up the royalties could look good on the face of it, but in practice it might wind up being a Hibernia style trade off as we subsidize jobs with government revenues.
Yet again.
Look even more closely to see if government actually tries to use Hebron as a springboard for its own energy corporation, or Petro-Newf as I lovingly call it. I am naturally cautious of people who want to use public assets (like my tax-cash) and use it to muscle their way into the bigger private sector plays. It's usually a bad idea. They particularly might look at refining as an oil-related asset Petro-Newf could work on developing .
Basically, it comes down to this:
1. The Hebron announcement today is good news for the province.
2. The provincial government will already see significantly better benefits from a Hebron project than from others due to changed domestic and international circumstances.
3. Keep a close eye on what the provincial government actually does in negotiations versus what it says it will do or is doing.
4. Keep a really watchful eye on Petro-Newf to see if it makes a comeback through Hebron.
05 April 2005
The Indy and The Michener revisited
The early morning -email included a note from a journalist whose reporting and judgment I respect.
He advises that while the Micheners are indeed self-nominated, they are vetted to get to the stage the Indy is at (a finalist) and then are vetted again to determine a winner.
Ok. Fair enough. And to be fair, under the circumstances, the finalist status is a feather in the Indy cap, as my journalist-correspondent noted.
That said, I still think the Indy should have made it clear how the award nominations were made and how the judging takes place. Those are basic facts that help an informed reader make a judgment. When reporting on itself, the Indy should be even more cautious than usual about hyperbole and spin.
I still think public masturbation should be against the law.
He advises that while the Micheners are indeed self-nominated, they are vetted to get to the stage the Indy is at (a finalist) and then are vetted again to determine a winner.
Ok. Fair enough. And to be fair, under the circumstances, the finalist status is a feather in the Indy cap, as my journalist-correspondent noted.
That said, I still think the Indy should have made it clear how the award nominations were made and how the judging takes place. Those are basic facts that help an informed reader make a judgment. When reporting on itself, the Indy should be even more cautious than usual about hyperbole and spin.
I still think public masturbation should be against the law.
Public Masturbation Alert - Spindy Nominates Self for Award?
Grab a copy of The Independent this week and you will see a front page story about the paper being nominated for a Michener Award for journalistic achievement.
The nomination is for the six part yawner that was supposed to provide a cost-benefit analysis of Confederation with Canada for Newfoundland and Labrador. The series was widely criticized for its faulty (read as non-existent) methodology. The Globe smashed the basic premises to pieces in one single graphic obtained by calling up Statistics Canada; managing editor Ryan Cleary spent a lot of time whining about a lack of complete information.
Each week since the series first appeared the Indy ME has relentlessly reminded us of this Magnificent Achievement in Canadian Journalism (patent pending).
This week, as if we haven't seen it enough, Cleary's column recounts the entire saga for us yet again. (How many weeks is this on the self-promo best-seller list anyways? I blacked out weeks ago.) This week's twist: the supposed irony of "Canada" wanting to honour the Indy for its achievement towards separation.
Well, ladies and gentlemen, go check out the entry rules for the Michener. Turns out you get to nominate yourself for the award.
Turns out "Canada" doesn't want to nominate Cleary and the Indy for anything. Unless it is for best money shot in a gratuitous unrestricted display of auto-manipulation on a never-ending basis.
Turns out there are some facts the Indy doesn't want to tell you, contrary to Cleary's editorial boasts and some truths he doesn't think you can handle.
I thought public masturbation was against the law.
Turns out Ryan's Cleary's breathlessness from the page one story is entirely self-induced.
At least, the other nominees offered something substantive:
The Calgary Herald is up for coverage by a single reporter that took a year to produce. Compare that to Cleary's Crew numbering two or three less than the Telly - a daily - but constantly spoken of by Cleary as if there were two reporters, one of whom works part-time, and a blind guy who speaks no English, with a wooden leg and no arms who shows up once in a while to just help out.
The Mother Corp is up for a major investigation into adverse drug reaction reporting that led to something other than the yawns the Indy has induced in anyone other than hard core Newfoundland pseudo-nationalists.
The Canadian Medical Association Journal and Decouverte (Radio-Canada) are being considered based on their efforts in covering the Clostridium difficile outbreak in Montreal last year. (Psst Ryan: ever think of checking out cleanliness and infection control in local hospitals. Yes, I know it would break the flow of your columns to date, but at least it would be....ummm...what's the word? ....oh yeah.... NEWS.)
The Globe, otherwise known as Toronto's national newspaper, has two nominations. One is for a team from Report on Business into improper use of insurance and mutual funds. The other is for ongoing coverage of the Gomery Inquisition.
As for the Spindy, who do you think wrote this line from its nomination description? "...the newspaper's work was a significant contribution to the debate about equalization and Newfoundland and Labrador's place in Canada."
Would that there was another love that dare not speak its own name.
The nomination is for the six part yawner that was supposed to provide a cost-benefit analysis of Confederation with Canada for Newfoundland and Labrador. The series was widely criticized for its faulty (read as non-existent) methodology. The Globe smashed the basic premises to pieces in one single graphic obtained by calling up Statistics Canada; managing editor Ryan Cleary spent a lot of time whining about a lack of complete information.
Each week since the series first appeared the Indy ME has relentlessly reminded us of this Magnificent Achievement in Canadian Journalism (patent pending).
This week, as if we haven't seen it enough, Cleary's column recounts the entire saga for us yet again. (How many weeks is this on the self-promo best-seller list anyways? I blacked out weeks ago.) This week's twist: the supposed irony of "Canada" wanting to honour the Indy for its achievement towards separation.
Well, ladies and gentlemen, go check out the entry rules for the Michener. Turns out you get to nominate yourself for the award.
Turns out "Canada" doesn't want to nominate Cleary and the Indy for anything. Unless it is for best money shot in a gratuitous unrestricted display of auto-manipulation on a never-ending basis.
Turns out there are some facts the Indy doesn't want to tell you, contrary to Cleary's editorial boasts and some truths he doesn't think you can handle.
I thought public masturbation was against the law.
Turns out Ryan's Cleary's breathlessness from the page one story is entirely self-induced.
At least, the other nominees offered something substantive:
The Calgary Herald is up for coverage by a single reporter that took a year to produce. Compare that to Cleary's Crew numbering two or three less than the Telly - a daily - but constantly spoken of by Cleary as if there were two reporters, one of whom works part-time, and a blind guy who speaks no English, with a wooden leg and no arms who shows up once in a while to just help out.
The Mother Corp is up for a major investigation into adverse drug reaction reporting that led to something other than the yawns the Indy has induced in anyone other than hard core Newfoundland pseudo-nationalists.
The Canadian Medical Association Journal and Decouverte (Radio-Canada) are being considered based on their efforts in covering the Clostridium difficile outbreak in Montreal last year. (Psst Ryan: ever think of checking out cleanliness and infection control in local hospitals. Yes, I know it would break the flow of your columns to date, but at least it would be....ummm...what's the word? ....oh yeah.... NEWS.)
The Globe, otherwise known as Toronto's national newspaper, has two nominations. One is for a team from Report on Business into improper use of insurance and mutual funds. The other is for ongoing coverage of the Gomery Inquisition.
As for the Spindy, who do you think wrote this line from its nomination description? "...the newspaper's work was a significant contribution to the debate about equalization and Newfoundland and Labrador's place in Canada."
Would that there was another love that dare not speak its own name.
The -EST Premier
Danny Williams is an EST guy.
No, I don't mean a graduate of the 1970s sensitivity training program.
I mean a guy for whom everything must be superlative. As in best, biggest, most.
No surprise therefore that the release yesterday on the Lower Churchill proposals plays up the number of expressions of interest - 25 - without actually breaking them out. During the news conference, though, questions from reporters did garner some clarification.
Out of that 25, only 10 actually are comprehensive development proposals that include financing, building and transmitting power. The others are all from people wanting a piece of the action - engineering firms, environmental companies, equity investment houses, the guys who sell toilet paper, maybe.
Before we go any further, let's all remember that Ontario was at the table between 1989 and 1992. It's nice to see them back. The premier described their value accurately. It's just not the first time they have been there.
The number of proposals the premier acknowledged is a bit interesting since the actual call for expressions of interest is pretty clear about what government wanted. Check page 7:
"The proponent shall provide a summary description of the proposed technical project configuration including generation and transmission infrastructure. The proponent shall provide a description of the proposed nature of commercial arrangements for project construction, project financing, operation, sale of power, and other key elements. In particular, the description should cover arrangements between the proponent and the Government, and arrangements between the proponent, other participants and other government entities. The commercial arrangements must address ownership of the facilities, types of power sale arrangements, potential risk allocation, potential financial incentives/ support requested, proponent’s perspective on royalty arrangements, ownership of potential greenhouse gas credits and other relevant terms." [Emphasis added]
Right off the bat we can flick more than half the submissions into the discard pile since they failed to meet the tender specs. It would be a monumental waste of time to entertain any comment from anyone who is really not prepared to put forward a proposal to handle the whole thing as they were asked to do. Environmental guys, engineers, financiers and the guys who sell chemical toilets can bid on the tenders coming from the successful proponents.
For the remaining proposals, though, if we think it through for a second, we can limit the whole thing down to some basic considerations.
1. Markets. Any project must have a market for the power. In this case, expect to see Quebec and Ontario as the major markets. New York is a possibility.
2. Competitive pricing. No point in spending a buck fifty to get a fifty cent cuke on the market. Therefore, while California is a potential customer, as is Chile, the costs of getting Labrador electricity to those places is just too high to make it commercially viable.
Bring yourself a little closer to home. Now think about the costs of adding to existing infrastructure using established technology. That brings you back to the three markets I just mentioned which can be reached cost-effectively using either existing transmission lines or by adding to the grid.
The non-Quebec route is fine as long as the power to the potential customer - New York state - is as cheap or cheaper than our competitors.
3. Capital. With those two things in place - especially the long-term purchase agreement, we can raise the cash. A project of this size is likely to cost upwards of $5.0 billion, all-up, including transmission lines. The people with cash want to know their investment is secure. The long-term purchase arrangements will make them sleep soundly at night.
Consider too that if we pile on local benefits and drive up royalties, those things add to the project costs and/or drive up the unit cost the end-user pays. If those things price us out of the market, then we won't get the tremendous benefits the premier talked about today and we don't have a project at all.
Basically every single one of the 10 real proposals received last week has to address those three points to be viable. We can pick among the best of the lot and try some bargaining, but just look closely at it and you'll see that contrary to what some people may say, the possibilities are not really endless.
If the only viable markets turn out to be Ontario and Quebec, are they going to pay more for the energy than if they developed it themselves? Do you feel the options dwindling somewhat?
Ontario and Quebec are savvy energy players. They have tons of experience, but so do we here in the province, if we look around and find Stan Marshall for example.
We have some leverage in all this, potentially, but since I am not an -EST guy, I really don't have the need to inflate expectations beyond some level of probability. There is a deal to be done here and a good one if the thing is handled properly.
We just don't have any flags to tear down.
Let's see what happens in the next few months.
No, I don't mean a graduate of the 1970s sensitivity training program.
I mean a guy for whom everything must be superlative. As in best, biggest, most.
No surprise therefore that the release yesterday on the Lower Churchill proposals plays up the number of expressions of interest - 25 - without actually breaking them out. During the news conference, though, questions from reporters did garner some clarification.
Out of that 25, only 10 actually are comprehensive development proposals that include financing, building and transmitting power. The others are all from people wanting a piece of the action - engineering firms, environmental companies, equity investment houses, the guys who sell toilet paper, maybe.
Before we go any further, let's all remember that Ontario was at the table between 1989 and 1992. It's nice to see them back. The premier described their value accurately. It's just not the first time they have been there.
The number of proposals the premier acknowledged is a bit interesting since the actual call for expressions of interest is pretty clear about what government wanted. Check page 7:
"The proponent shall provide a summary description of the proposed technical project configuration including generation and transmission infrastructure. The proponent shall provide a description of the proposed nature of commercial arrangements for project construction, project financing, operation, sale of power, and other key elements. In particular, the description should cover arrangements between the proponent and the Government, and arrangements between the proponent, other participants and other government entities. The commercial arrangements must address ownership of the facilities, types of power sale arrangements, potential risk allocation, potential financial incentives/ support requested, proponent’s perspective on royalty arrangements, ownership of potential greenhouse gas credits and other relevant terms." [Emphasis added]
Right off the bat we can flick more than half the submissions into the discard pile since they failed to meet the tender specs. It would be a monumental waste of time to entertain any comment from anyone who is really not prepared to put forward a proposal to handle the whole thing as they were asked to do. Environmental guys, engineers, financiers and the guys who sell chemical toilets can bid on the tenders coming from the successful proponents.
For the remaining proposals, though, if we think it through for a second, we can limit the whole thing down to some basic considerations.
1. Markets. Any project must have a market for the power. In this case, expect to see Quebec and Ontario as the major markets. New York is a possibility.
2. Competitive pricing. No point in spending a buck fifty to get a fifty cent cuke on the market. Therefore, while California is a potential customer, as is Chile, the costs of getting Labrador electricity to those places is just too high to make it commercially viable.
Bring yourself a little closer to home. Now think about the costs of adding to existing infrastructure using established technology. That brings you back to the three markets I just mentioned which can be reached cost-effectively using either existing transmission lines or by adding to the grid.
The non-Quebec route is fine as long as the power to the potential customer - New York state - is as cheap or cheaper than our competitors.
3. Capital. With those two things in place - especially the long-term purchase agreement, we can raise the cash. A project of this size is likely to cost upwards of $5.0 billion, all-up, including transmission lines. The people with cash want to know their investment is secure. The long-term purchase arrangements will make them sleep soundly at night.
Consider too that if we pile on local benefits and drive up royalties, those things add to the project costs and/or drive up the unit cost the end-user pays. If those things price us out of the market, then we won't get the tremendous benefits the premier talked about today and we don't have a project at all.
Basically every single one of the 10 real proposals received last week has to address those three points to be viable. We can pick among the best of the lot and try some bargaining, but just look closely at it and you'll see that contrary to what some people may say, the possibilities are not really endless.
If the only viable markets turn out to be Ontario and Quebec, are they going to pay more for the energy than if they developed it themselves? Do you feel the options dwindling somewhat?
Ontario and Quebec are savvy energy players. They have tons of experience, but so do we here in the province, if we look around and find Stan Marshall for example.
We have some leverage in all this, potentially, but since I am not an -EST guy, I really don't have the need to inflate expectations beyond some level of probability. There is a deal to be done here and a good one if the thing is handled properly.
We just don't have any flags to tear down.
Let's see what happens in the next few months.
04 April 2005
Maybe thinking should at least give us pause
While I have been very critical of the Independent in recent weeks, I will say that every now and then something appears which makes the paper worth the buck I spend each Sunday to buy it.
This week, there are two things.
One is the front page story by Stephanie Porter on the Hibernia project. She makes a couple of basic factual errors, but on balance the story accurately describes the financial situation of the Hibernia project. Of course, there are quotes from guys like Ron Penney who was on the Real Accord negotiating team and who, most likely, believed the Peckford government's palaver about eating our oil revenue cake and having it too. But other than that, I'd say give it a read.
The second thing is the regular column by Indy owner Brian Dobbin. He publishes under the title "Publish or perish", which is a phrase the Herald used to use relentlessly in drumming up letters to the editor.
Dobbin makes three comments in the piece that I want to address.
First, he says he learned last week in The Independent something he didn't know, namely that the provincial government is looking at setting up a state-owned oil company to invest in the offshore. Second, he slags a consultant by saying, as Dobbin put it, if the consultant had any insight, he would be "an economic do-er as opposed to being a commentator on other do-ers". Third, Dobbin backs the idea of a Crown-owned oil corporation.
Let's tackle these in order.
1. That's a new one: the Energy Mega-Corp. If Dobbin heard about the energy corporation idea only from reading the Indy, he might want to get out more. The story was reported last year in The Express and this week alone The Express covered it again, before the Indy went to press. Heck, it's even in the Tory Blue Book.
Conrad Black. Lord Thomson of Fleet. Rupert Murdoch. Newspaper owners all, and all renowned for reading more than the ink-blotters they printed. It's one of the things, incidentally that distinguishes entrepreneurs: they thirst for information and analysis. They hunt it out in weird and wonderful places and ponder the gems they find.
Information - or intelligence as the b-school crowd call it now - is the starting point of generating ideas that stand a hope of lasting. Open Line is full of people with ideas. Don't expect that the Moon Man has too many people lining up to give him cash, though. Smart entrepreneurs know that with more information they have a better chance of picking out the gold from the pyrite, or in this case the crude from the canola.
2. Slagging commentators. My self-interest aside, Dobbin should realize that another hallmark of successful entrepreneurs is that they realize one thing: they don't know it all. They employ guys like the expert he slagged to give them more information, ideas and opinions before they make a decision. Then the entrepreneurs do what they do best: take calculated, informed risks.
3. Petro-Newf Reborn. Perhaps the most bizarre part of the column is the bit where Dobbin the Do-er advocates government getting into the private sector realm by buying up big shares in the offshore through an energy Crown corporation. He uses as back-up for his position a meeting he had five years ago with then premier Beaton Tulk and a few senior officials over some proposal by the Taiwanese state-owned oil enterprise to invest in producing gas offshore Newfoundland and Labrador. Without knowing all the background here, let's just leave this little gem off the table for now. If Dobbin wants to expand on that proposal with some, oooh, maybe little things like facts and details, then we can tackle it.
But Dobbin would know, if he read more, that there is a substantial body of opinion out there that opposes state-ownership of what should be private sector businesses. Consider that the World Bank has devoted considerable energy to pointing out just exactly how inefficient state-owned oil companies are in producing anything, let alone wealth. The people who pay for the inefficiency? You and me, the average taxpayer.
For another thing, Dobbin should know from living here for more than five minutes that the provincial government has proven time and again that it simply cannot run anything normally in the private sector as efficiently as that same enterprise would run in the private sector. More often than not these ventures have proven to be massive drains on the public treasury. Who pays? You're catching on fast.
As much as he may tune out the Sprung Greenhouse, Dobbin would take two lessons from it, if he read more than his own paper. He'd learn that it was a colossal failure that cost taxpayers at least $22 million. He'd also know that bureaucrats - the very people he slags unmercifully in his column - warned up, down and sideways that every single claim by cuke proponents The Sprungs was sheer hogfodder. There was a premier who would over-rule them, much to the delight of the proponents, but he did so despite overwhelming evidence and carefully considered opinion that growing cukes in this province in a hydroponic greenhouse was asinine.
And that's really where I depart from Dobbin on a fundamental level. Dobbin marks this all down to fear. It really isn't about fear at all. Dobbin is essentially advocating the kind of carpet-bagging lunacy that we have seen time and again from Shaheens and Doyles and Sprungs. It is about political decision-making that is autocratic - to be generous - of the type offered by Smallwood or Peckford. It is about managing something, in this case government, in a way that one seldom sees in sophisticated modern business. Are there any unemployed Latvians out there Brian thinks need work?
What Dobbin offers is the same old idiocy we have seen time and time again. The only fear involved is the fear that yet another fly-by-night promoter can come here and gain access to my tax dollars by flattering The Boss. Were we to follow Dobbin's model, we would toss aside the expertise of successful local companies like, say Fortis and Rutter, and go back to some other model that has simply never worked. We would abandon common sense and all the progress in developing the economy over the past 15 years and simply repeat the same inane mistakes of the past.
What Dobbin would essentially throw away is the actual sophistication, the genuine expertise of the local business community in favour of some massive, state-owned bureaucracy squandering tax dollars on sluggish administration. Money like that would be better spent on health care and could be better obtained in other ways; like say improving revenue deals for the province from private sector developers, and by encouraging local investment by the private sector in new businesses. These guys will generate real wealth locally and abroad.
If Dobbin was a modern entrepreneur, he'd be running about trying to convince Danny to find a way so that local private sector companies can get into the oil business. That he does exactly the opposite suggests to me that Dobbin really does hearken back to the dark pre-Confederation times. That's when local businesses controlled government and used public money to subsidize the lifestyles of the handful of business owners in St. John's. It was our own piece of the Third World in North America and thankfully it is long gone.
Brian Dobbin: if you want my money either for an oil company or another private sector scheme, better try asking me directly. I don't plan to stand by while you suck cash out of my pocket through your political buddies and flush it away on some goof-ball idea. That's one of things that makes state-owned oil enterprises such appalling bad ideas. It's the kind of thing you find in Zangaro, not Zeebrugge.
The public sector has no place subsidizing let alone operating things that genuine entrepreneurs should be running.
Fear shouldn't stop us from doing anything that is well-founded and carefully thought through, Brian, but maybe thinking should at least give us pause enough to consider how outmoded your ideas actually are.
This week, there are two things.
One is the front page story by Stephanie Porter on the Hibernia project. She makes a couple of basic factual errors, but on balance the story accurately describes the financial situation of the Hibernia project. Of course, there are quotes from guys like Ron Penney who was on the Real Accord negotiating team and who, most likely, believed the Peckford government's palaver about eating our oil revenue cake and having it too. But other than that, I'd say give it a read.
The second thing is the regular column by Indy owner Brian Dobbin. He publishes under the title "Publish or perish", which is a phrase the Herald used to use relentlessly in drumming up letters to the editor.
Dobbin makes three comments in the piece that I want to address.
First, he says he learned last week in The Independent something he didn't know, namely that the provincial government is looking at setting up a state-owned oil company to invest in the offshore. Second, he slags a consultant by saying, as Dobbin put it, if the consultant had any insight, he would be "an economic do-er as opposed to being a commentator on other do-ers". Third, Dobbin backs the idea of a Crown-owned oil corporation.
Let's tackle these in order.
1. That's a new one: the Energy Mega-Corp. If Dobbin heard about the energy corporation idea only from reading the Indy, he might want to get out more. The story was reported last year in The Express and this week alone The Express covered it again, before the Indy went to press. Heck, it's even in the Tory Blue Book.
Conrad Black. Lord Thomson of Fleet. Rupert Murdoch. Newspaper owners all, and all renowned for reading more than the ink-blotters they printed. It's one of the things, incidentally that distinguishes entrepreneurs: they thirst for information and analysis. They hunt it out in weird and wonderful places and ponder the gems they find.
Information - or intelligence as the b-school crowd call it now - is the starting point of generating ideas that stand a hope of lasting. Open Line is full of people with ideas. Don't expect that the Moon Man has too many people lining up to give him cash, though. Smart entrepreneurs know that with more information they have a better chance of picking out the gold from the pyrite, or in this case the crude from the canola.
2. Slagging commentators. My self-interest aside, Dobbin should realize that another hallmark of successful entrepreneurs is that they realize one thing: they don't know it all. They employ guys like the expert he slagged to give them more information, ideas and opinions before they make a decision. Then the entrepreneurs do what they do best: take calculated, informed risks.
3. Petro-Newf Reborn. Perhaps the most bizarre part of the column is the bit where Dobbin the Do-er advocates government getting into the private sector realm by buying up big shares in the offshore through an energy Crown corporation. He uses as back-up for his position a meeting he had five years ago with then premier Beaton Tulk and a few senior officials over some proposal by the Taiwanese state-owned oil enterprise to invest in producing gas offshore Newfoundland and Labrador. Without knowing all the background here, let's just leave this little gem off the table for now. If Dobbin wants to expand on that proposal with some, oooh, maybe little things like facts and details, then we can tackle it.
But Dobbin would know, if he read more, that there is a substantial body of opinion out there that opposes state-ownership of what should be private sector businesses. Consider that the World Bank has devoted considerable energy to pointing out just exactly how inefficient state-owned oil companies are in producing anything, let alone wealth. The people who pay for the inefficiency? You and me, the average taxpayer.
For another thing, Dobbin should know from living here for more than five minutes that the provincial government has proven time and again that it simply cannot run anything normally in the private sector as efficiently as that same enterprise would run in the private sector. More often than not these ventures have proven to be massive drains on the public treasury. Who pays? You're catching on fast.
As much as he may tune out the Sprung Greenhouse, Dobbin would take two lessons from it, if he read more than his own paper. He'd learn that it was a colossal failure that cost taxpayers at least $22 million. He'd also know that bureaucrats - the very people he slags unmercifully in his column - warned up, down and sideways that every single claim by cuke proponents The Sprungs was sheer hogfodder. There was a premier who would over-rule them, much to the delight of the proponents, but he did so despite overwhelming evidence and carefully considered opinion that growing cukes in this province in a hydroponic greenhouse was asinine.
And that's really where I depart from Dobbin on a fundamental level. Dobbin marks this all down to fear. It really isn't about fear at all. Dobbin is essentially advocating the kind of carpet-bagging lunacy that we have seen time and again from Shaheens and Doyles and Sprungs. It is about political decision-making that is autocratic - to be generous - of the type offered by Smallwood or Peckford. It is about managing something, in this case government, in a way that one seldom sees in sophisticated modern business. Are there any unemployed Latvians out there Brian thinks need work?
What Dobbin offers is the same old idiocy we have seen time and time again. The only fear involved is the fear that yet another fly-by-night promoter can come here and gain access to my tax dollars by flattering The Boss. Were we to follow Dobbin's model, we would toss aside the expertise of successful local companies like, say Fortis and Rutter, and go back to some other model that has simply never worked. We would abandon common sense and all the progress in developing the economy over the past 15 years and simply repeat the same inane mistakes of the past.
What Dobbin would essentially throw away is the actual sophistication, the genuine expertise of the local business community in favour of some massive, state-owned bureaucracy squandering tax dollars on sluggish administration. Money like that would be better spent on health care and could be better obtained in other ways; like say improving revenue deals for the province from private sector developers, and by encouraging local investment by the private sector in new businesses. These guys will generate real wealth locally and abroad.
If Dobbin was a modern entrepreneur, he'd be running about trying to convince Danny to find a way so that local private sector companies can get into the oil business. That he does exactly the opposite suggests to me that Dobbin really does hearken back to the dark pre-Confederation times. That's when local businesses controlled government and used public money to subsidize the lifestyles of the handful of business owners in St. John's. It was our own piece of the Third World in North America and thankfully it is long gone.
Brian Dobbin: if you want my money either for an oil company or another private sector scheme, better try asking me directly. I don't plan to stand by while you suck cash out of my pocket through your political buddies and flush it away on some goof-ball idea. That's one of things that makes state-owned oil enterprises such appalling bad ideas. It's the kind of thing you find in Zangaro, not Zeebrugge.
The public sector has no place subsidizing let alone operating things that genuine entrepreneurs should be running.
Fear shouldn't stop us from doing anything that is well-founded and carefully thought through, Brian, but maybe thinking should at least give us pause enough to consider how outmoded your ideas actually are.
General Bullshit - revised
After reading this story and hearing the on-air version, I had to check the bio of one Gordon O'Connor, Conservative Party defence critic.
Seems O'Connor is blaming the Liberals for the RAF withdrawal from Goose Bay.
He pledges that the Conservatives would "do their damnedest" and if that failed, well, you know...
"But if that doesn't happen, we have other operational requirements within [our] sovereignty and security which we would have to deploy, and would deploy to Goose Bay."
Now let me make this clear:
Gordo is a zipperhead. That's military slang (not necessarily complimentary) for an armoured type, prone to bobbing around in large motorized metal boxes trying desperately not to get bogged. Bogged: as in up to the turret in, well, bog.
One of my former army public affairs colleagues was found standing on the cupola of his Centurion, the only bit of the tank visible above ground. His course report suggested he might find advantageous employment in another corps. He did.
What Gordo knows about aircraft and air operations likely comes entirely from his experiences in Air Canada First Class and the bits of his army staff courses he slept through on his way to BGen.
Now I could be wrong, because, according to CBC News, his last posting involved " responsibility for planning the future force structure of the Canadian Forces (organization, equipment and personnel) and co-ordinating all resources related to about 300 ongoing Canadian Forces equipment and infrastructure projects."
But as Gordo told CBC about Goose Bay: "O'Connor says it is too soon to say what forces a Conservative government would station at Goose Bay."
That's, like, just a bit of equivocating, don't you think?
So because he held an august appointment planning future force structures (read as "what we have in order to do what we do with"), Gordo should know what the operational requirements are for every inch of space in the DND system. He knows the current operational requirements of the Canadian Forces intimately.
Or at least he should.
He likely does, but here's what I think:
I think Gordo knows full well that Goose Bay has NO operational utility for DND/CF such that DND needs to own a base and maintain assets there.
I think Gordo is spouting stuff he knows is pure bullshit because there is a by-election coming.
I think Gordo is driving around trying desperately not to get bogged down in an issue where he knows the difference between what is likely and what he has to say for political purposes.
I think Gordo should try this one at his next meeting of zipperheads: A Conservative government will move every tank in the Canadian Forces armoured corps to Goose Bay and its associated training areas. We'll even build new training areas there and a big firing range for whatever the zips will be driving and shooting from.
It's operationally needed, tell them.
Why? Because we need to be able to operate in dense wooded terrain where tanks can't really go.
And we can use the runways to practice wheelies and doughnuts.
Try that on 'em, Gordo and watch the less than enthusiastic response you get.
Note: The whistling sound you hear, Gordo, is the discarding sabot round from a Leopard going past your head.
Gunnery training ain't what it used to be.
Yep.
Put all the tanks in Goose Bay.
"Driver: Advance!" that one, Gordo and see how far you get.
Seems O'Connor is blaming the Liberals for the RAF withdrawal from Goose Bay.
He pledges that the Conservatives would "do their damnedest" and if that failed, well, you know...
"But if that doesn't happen, we have other operational requirements within [our] sovereignty and security which we would have to deploy, and would deploy to Goose Bay."
Now let me make this clear:
Gordo is a zipperhead. That's military slang (not necessarily complimentary) for an armoured type, prone to bobbing around in large motorized metal boxes trying desperately not to get bogged. Bogged: as in up to the turret in, well, bog.
One of my former army public affairs colleagues was found standing on the cupola of his Centurion, the only bit of the tank visible above ground. His course report suggested he might find advantageous employment in another corps. He did.
What Gordo knows about aircraft and air operations likely comes entirely from his experiences in Air Canada First Class and the bits of his army staff courses he slept through on his way to BGen.
Now I could be wrong, because, according to CBC News, his last posting involved " responsibility for planning the future force structure of the Canadian Forces (organization, equipment and personnel) and co-ordinating all resources related to about 300 ongoing Canadian Forces equipment and infrastructure projects."
But as Gordo told CBC about Goose Bay: "O'Connor says it is too soon to say what forces a Conservative government would station at Goose Bay."
That's, like, just a bit of equivocating, don't you think?
So because he held an august appointment planning future force structures (read as "what we have in order to do what we do with"), Gordo should know what the operational requirements are for every inch of space in the DND system. He knows the current operational requirements of the Canadian Forces intimately.
Or at least he should.
He likely does, but here's what I think:
I think Gordo knows full well that Goose Bay has NO operational utility for DND/CF such that DND needs to own a base and maintain assets there.
I think Gordo is spouting stuff he knows is pure bullshit because there is a by-election coming.
I think Gordo is driving around trying desperately not to get bogged down in an issue where he knows the difference between what is likely and what he has to say for political purposes.
I think Gordo should try this one at his next meeting of zipperheads: A Conservative government will move every tank in the Canadian Forces armoured corps to Goose Bay and its associated training areas. We'll even build new training areas there and a big firing range for whatever the zips will be driving and shooting from.
It's operationally needed, tell them.
Why? Because we need to be able to operate in dense wooded terrain where tanks can't really go.
And we can use the runways to practice wheelies and doughnuts.
Try that on 'em, Gordo and watch the less than enthusiastic response you get.
Note: The whistling sound you hear, Gordo, is the discarding sabot round from a Leopard going past your head.
Gunnery training ain't what it used to be.
Yep.
Put all the tanks in Goose Bay.
"Driver: Advance!" that one, Gordo and see how far you get.
Blogs and real world information
Two episodes over the weekend illustrated one of the conflicts between the land o' blogs on the Internet, sometimes called the blogosphere, and the world inhabited by lesser mortals.
The first one was a draft commentary I put together on the Borden AIDS story. You've already seen my posts in which I named the accused. It's bee public since the outset. Well it seems some news outlets will no longer identify the accused in the case since she is herself a victim of crime.
It makes for some curious reporting. Someone dependent solely on that one news outlet will not have information the rest of us share. The accused in this case is, well, the accused. In the absence of a publication ban, trial information is public and the name of the accused is open to publication.
What it boils down to is this: if I do the commentary, I'll rework the thing to avoid mentioning the name of the accused. I'll do that solely to respect the editorial policy of the news outlet involved. I'll keep it here in this blog since the information is already out there and there is no legal injunction against using it.
The second case is testimony by one of the witnesses at the Gomery inquisition. I chose the word advisedly because I am not sure what is going to come from this that the cops haven't seen already. For example, the testimony that has everyone in Ottawa a-twitter, comes from one of the two people facing criminal charges in the case.
If this individual hadn't put his complete information in front of the cops already, I'd be pretty surprised. While it sure as heck doesn't appear to exonerate him, it implicates others.
There is a publication ban in this case, so I cannot legally tell you what was said. Truth is, I don't know for certain what the testimony was.
What I can tell you is that the blogosphere is itself vibrating with the electric buzz from some American bloggers who have reported what they think is the testimony. That has been picked up by Canadian bloggers, including Norman Spector (Mulroney's ex-chief of staff and therefore a completely unbiased source) and Warren Kinsella (the lawyer cum self-promoter who brought us the devastating Barney attack on Stockwell Day as part of Liberal campaigns past).
The blog buzz has reached such a pitch that Rosemary Thompson (CTV) included a picture of the American blog front page in her report for the national news on Sunday night.
Now I'll say this:
Based on what I have read, I really cannot see how accusations of corruption against a previous regime will affect the Martin government. Some bloggers - like Spector - are likely trafficking in as much innuendo as fact "Oh I wish you knew what I knew cause if you did, Martin is toast." His approach would warrant some Liberal recounting the litany of Tories from Spector's time who did hard time for political crime, or others, Like Sinc Stevens who was cast into the pit for trying to run a business out of his ministerial office.
People who live in glass houses, Normie, people who live in glass houses. But more to the point, Norm, would the history of corruption under Mulroney disqualify his progeny from winning next time out? If you want Harper in 24 Sussex, trying selling Harper.
Since I can't give you the testimony either, if I had it, nor can I point you to people claiming to have it (I like my ass out of jail, thanks) , I do have the capacity to do something a little different. I'll give you some links to follow for interesting comment on Gomery:
Warren Kinsella - He's a Liberal and a dedicated partisan, but man I have to say he is a bit much to take sometimes.
Norman Spector - He's a Conservative, and like Warren, is equally hard to take slightly more often. Only slightly. Big value here is the wide range of links Norm has to other stories on Gomery. Big downside: it's Norman Spector.
Nealenews - The look of Matt Drudge's now infamous Drudge Report. As I recall this site yesterday was linking to the US site. He must have spoken to a lawyer in the meantime.
Oddly, CTNnews.ca has also taken down Rosemary's story and they did it in the matter of a few seconds this morning as I was trying to download it.
Judge Gomery may be boring at times and at others he may be amusing (Chretien made an ass of him pretty easily) but he is still a judge with full powers to slap Canadians in jail.
Surf the net and use google, by the way, and you'll find the testimony in question.
The first one was a draft commentary I put together on the Borden AIDS story. You've already seen my posts in which I named the accused. It's bee public since the outset. Well it seems some news outlets will no longer identify the accused in the case since she is herself a victim of crime.
It makes for some curious reporting. Someone dependent solely on that one news outlet will not have information the rest of us share. The accused in this case is, well, the accused. In the absence of a publication ban, trial information is public and the name of the accused is open to publication.
What it boils down to is this: if I do the commentary, I'll rework the thing to avoid mentioning the name of the accused. I'll do that solely to respect the editorial policy of the news outlet involved. I'll keep it here in this blog since the information is already out there and there is no legal injunction against using it.
The second case is testimony by one of the witnesses at the Gomery inquisition. I chose the word advisedly because I am not sure what is going to come from this that the cops haven't seen already. For example, the testimony that has everyone in Ottawa a-twitter, comes from one of the two people facing criminal charges in the case.
If this individual hadn't put his complete information in front of the cops already, I'd be pretty surprised. While it sure as heck doesn't appear to exonerate him, it implicates others.
There is a publication ban in this case, so I cannot legally tell you what was said. Truth is, I don't know for certain what the testimony was.
What I can tell you is that the blogosphere is itself vibrating with the electric buzz from some American bloggers who have reported what they think is the testimony. That has been picked up by Canadian bloggers, including Norman Spector (Mulroney's ex-chief of staff and therefore a completely unbiased source) and Warren Kinsella (the lawyer cum self-promoter who brought us the devastating Barney attack on Stockwell Day as part of Liberal campaigns past).
The blog buzz has reached such a pitch that Rosemary Thompson (CTV) included a picture of the American blog front page in her report for the national news on Sunday night.
Now I'll say this:
Based on what I have read, I really cannot see how accusations of corruption against a previous regime will affect the Martin government. Some bloggers - like Spector - are likely trafficking in as much innuendo as fact "Oh I wish you knew what I knew cause if you did, Martin is toast." His approach would warrant some Liberal recounting the litany of Tories from Spector's time who did hard time for political crime, or others, Like Sinc Stevens who was cast into the pit for trying to run a business out of his ministerial office.
People who live in glass houses, Normie, people who live in glass houses. But more to the point, Norm, would the history of corruption under Mulroney disqualify his progeny from winning next time out? If you want Harper in 24 Sussex, trying selling Harper.
Since I can't give you the testimony either, if I had it, nor can I point you to people claiming to have it (I like my ass out of jail, thanks) , I do have the capacity to do something a little different. I'll give you some links to follow for interesting comment on Gomery:
Warren Kinsella - He's a Liberal and a dedicated partisan, but man I have to say he is a bit much to take sometimes.
Norman Spector - He's a Conservative, and like Warren, is equally hard to take slightly more often. Only slightly. Big value here is the wide range of links Norm has to other stories on Gomery. Big downside: it's Norman Spector.
Nealenews - The look of Matt Drudge's now infamous Drudge Report. As I recall this site yesterday was linking to the US site. He must have spoken to a lawyer in the meantime.
Oddly, CTNnews.ca has also taken down Rosemary's story and they did it in the matter of a few seconds this morning as I was trying to download it.
Judge Gomery may be boring at times and at others he may be amusing (Chretien made an ass of him pretty easily) but he is still a judge with full powers to slap Canadians in jail.
Surf the net and use google, by the way, and you'll find the testimony in question.
01 April 2005
What are they thinking? Are they thinking? They think?
Enjoy this Sun story.
Apparently, Stephen Harper has decided that public bluster is better than anything else when it comes to dealing with the C-43 controversy.
Now it could be that the Sun chain is just keeping something on life support that should be allowed to pass peacefully into eternity. Then again, maybe the Opposition parties are just getting up a head of steam to see if they can force the Martin government into blinking.
Consider too that over at the local weekly The Express, Norman Doyle is blaming John Efford for the whole mess. Geez, Norm this "Blame Efford" thing is getting even more tiresome than the C-43 story.
Three opposition parties. Three different problems with Bill C-43.
What should a government do?
It's a bit of a poser.
Stephen Harper now wants both Kyoto and the offshore bills taken out of the budget measure. Since the Kyoto - or more correctly - the environmental provisions are not really budget measures, perhaps the government could meet him on that one. But knowing Mr. Harper has upped the ante, I'd be more inclined to take my chances if I were Paul Martin.
After all, Stephen Harper doesn't support the offshore deal. His solution is a change to Equalization and I have yet to see Mr. Harper state in writing that if he were prime minister he would honour the commitment reached on January 28. Statements from his media wrangler don't count.
So, we are in the same place we were a week ago. Lots of bluster and threats. Lots of media speculation.
The bill doesn't come for a vote for about three weeks.
I am not sure I can stand three more weeks of this palaver.
Apparently, Stephen Harper has decided that public bluster is better than anything else when it comes to dealing with the C-43 controversy.
Now it could be that the Sun chain is just keeping something on life support that should be allowed to pass peacefully into eternity. Then again, maybe the Opposition parties are just getting up a head of steam to see if they can force the Martin government into blinking.
Consider too that over at the local weekly The Express, Norman Doyle is blaming John Efford for the whole mess. Geez, Norm this "Blame Efford" thing is getting even more tiresome than the C-43 story.
Three opposition parties. Three different problems with Bill C-43.
What should a government do?
It's a bit of a poser.
Stephen Harper now wants both Kyoto and the offshore bills taken out of the budget measure. Since the Kyoto - or more correctly - the environmental provisions are not really budget measures, perhaps the government could meet him on that one. But knowing Mr. Harper has upped the ante, I'd be more inclined to take my chances if I were Paul Martin.
After all, Stephen Harper doesn't support the offshore deal. His solution is a change to Equalization and I have yet to see Mr. Harper state in writing that if he were prime minister he would honour the commitment reached on January 28. Statements from his media wrangler don't count.
So, we are in the same place we were a week ago. Lots of bluster and threats. Lots of media speculation.
The bill doesn't come for a vote for about three weeks.
I am not sure I can stand three more weeks of this palaver.
Time for a New Approach
Goldman Sachs yesterday - so it isn't an April Fools Day joke - reported crude prices may hit US$105 in the next few years with a possible "superspike" coming at US$135 per barrel.
Some implications:
- Provincial government oil revenues will exceed even the most optimistic projections. No amount of fudging by the Finance Department will hide the dollar bills sticking out through the windows and poking under doors.
- Newfoundland and Labrador will become a "have" province for a decade or more.
- The January deal will only be worth $2.0 billion not the scads more predicted by Danny and his boys.
- The province is ultimately faced with a serious political question for the first time in its recent history. We have to decide whether or not we want to blow the whole wad on everyones' wish lists or do something practical and productive with it.
It will be time for a genuinely new approach to politics.
Some implications:
- Provincial government oil revenues will exceed even the most optimistic projections. No amount of fudging by the Finance Department will hide the dollar bills sticking out through the windows and poking under doors.
- Newfoundland and Labrador will become a "have" province for a decade or more.
- The January deal will only be worth $2.0 billion not the scads more predicted by Danny and his boys.
- The province is ultimately faced with a serious political question for the first time in its recent history. We have to decide whether or not we want to blow the whole wad on everyones' wish lists or do something practical and productive with it.
It will be time for a genuinely new approach to politics.
I wish it was an April Fools' joke
Mile One is a time machine for ancient entertainment.
VOCM is reporting that country music singer George Jones is coming to Mile One to perform 50 years of hits. Yep a half century of country from a guy who retired from the business before half the people who usually go to concerts were even born.
In the first season, the Mile One line-up consisted of every C List entertainer still alive and willing to go anywhere for a gig. It was a bit like flicking on any recent PBS fundraising telethon.
Seems the only guy they haven't tried to book is Frank Gorshin. Keith Coombs might check him out.
Frank even has a link to a raft of those guys who now turn up mostly on John Gushue's Trivia Crosstalk on CBC Radio. You know them, the kind of people only ubernerds like me remember.
Guys like Jawa Number 3 from Star Wars. (Seriously. He's there.) Or people who had one appearance in the original Star Trek as one or another guest star. Sorry guys, no expendable crewmen in red tunics.
C'mon Keith, there are enough Star Trek fans around to want to see Frank and his minor, minor, minor Star Trek alum again.
VOCM is reporting that country music singer George Jones is coming to Mile One to perform 50 years of hits. Yep a half century of country from a guy who retired from the business before half the people who usually go to concerts were even born.
In the first season, the Mile One line-up consisted of every C List entertainer still alive and willing to go anywhere for a gig. It was a bit like flicking on any recent PBS fundraising telethon.
Seems the only guy they haven't tried to book is Frank Gorshin. Keith Coombs might check him out.
Frank even has a link to a raft of those guys who now turn up mostly on John Gushue's Trivia Crosstalk on CBC Radio. You know them, the kind of people only ubernerds like me remember.
Guys like Jawa Number 3 from Star Wars. (Seriously. He's there.) Or people who had one appearance in the original Star Trek as one or another guest star. Sorry guys, no expendable crewmen in red tunics.
C'mon Keith, there are enough Star Trek fans around to want to see Frank and his minor, minor, minor Star Trek alum again.
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