The promise of a shift in political perceptions

Cabinet shuffles are often unremarkable events that make news simply because they occur.

Today's federal shuffle would be one of those occasions.  Yes, the people in the jobs deserve some recognition, but beyond noting that Gary Lunn received a royal demotion or that Bev Oda is still in cabinet in the same job - Heavens knows why - there isn't much in the news to deserve much thought.

From a Newfoundland and Labrador perspective, it may well be that the best news in many years to come from a federal cabinet is that there isn't a regional minister for this province who actually comes from this province.

The local cult of personality over the past five years has tended to personalize everything, including the importance of having a single individual to "fight for Newfoundland and Labrador."  That perspective led to first John Efford and Loyola Hearn being targeted for attack by a particular political faction largely because they offered a potential challenge to the existing self-described embodiment as an alternate locus of political power. [continued below]

"Some obstacles to democracy..."

In all important aspects of national politics, guile, compromise and a subtle kind of blackmail decided their course and determined their alliances. They appeared to discount all political or social ideologies, save nationalism. For the mass of the people the words Tory and Grit, Conservative and Liberal, referred neither to political ideologies nor to administrative techniques. They were regarded only as meaningless labels, affixed to alternatives which permitted the auctioneering of one's support; they had no more meaning than bleu or rouge, which eventually replaced them in popular speech. [They] on the whole never voted for political or economic ideologies, but only for the man or group which stood for their ethnic rights... In such a mental climate, sound democratic politics could hardly be expected to prevail, even in strictly provincial or local affairs where racial issues were not involved....

That political frame resurrected an old collective perception of Ottawa solely as a source of dole that came from the Smallwood years.  Our expectation that political success is defined solely on a politicians ability to bring home pork for the federal larder comes from the way Newfoundlanders and Labradorians received their orientation to federal politics after 1949. The Smallwood legacy in that regard is not merely lingering, it has become once more the official view.

Now to be fair, there is a tradition of some rather powerful figures from this province, including the likes of Don Jamieson and John Crosbie.  But to be really fair, their power came from their ability to discharge their responsibilities to the country as a whole as well as their inherent political and managerial skills.

People who head off to Ottawa as provincialist representatives for their own corner of the universe, and who ceaselessly work only for that patch tend to wind up - to a greater or lesser degree - like individual Blocheads:  pretty much incapable of influencing things to any significant degree.

Newfoundlanders and Labradorians can look to their federal representatives to represent their interests in dealing with the Government of Canada and in reflecting their views on national issues debated in the national parliament.

As for provincial government issues - revealed in the begging letters to Ottawa during the last election - the job now falls to the individual provincial ministers to work with their federal counterparts as needed.  The standard for judging their performance just shot up dramatically.  They don't have that convenient scapegoat anymore and high-pitched bitching will no longer be a convincing substitute for making the case and getting the job done.

On the municipal level, the effect of the last federal election might also be sorely felt.  The folly of electing inexperienced municipal representatives, particularly ones with a tendency to play petty political games or work their partisan connections, may show itself to be useless.

The end result at the provincial and municipal level may be that the job specs get boosted up a fair bit beyond where they've been for the past number of years.

At the same time, the potential exists for a fundamental shift in how Newfoundlanders and Labradorians - individually and collectively - look at federal politics.

Maybe, just maybe, some 60 years after Confederation, Newfoundlanders and Labradorians will shuck off the frame used by generations of provincialist politicians and finally participate fully in the nation's political system as they should.

We must be masters of our own house, but our house is all of Canada.

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Jet Ski or Scuba Dive?

There is a radical difference in media coverage of the premier's tesitmony at the cameron Inquiry.

For the most part, the local media were caught up in the presentation, even to the point of Randy Simms gushing - there is no other word for it - over what Simms said was an apology done without benefit of highly paid consultants to craft words. 

Simms seems to base his view entirely on the fact Williams did not read from a sheet of paper.  For a veteran newsman, Simms displays an ability to come to a conclusion based on incredibly slim facts.  Neil Armstrong didn't read from a sheet of paper either, but his first words on the moon were as rehearsed as could be.

The locals may have brushed beyond the nose-pullers in the testimony like the Premier's claim that he doesn't pay attention to what is said on radio talk shows.  The Telegram added a piece in the Wednesday edition on the Premier's comments on the media but didn't poke a hole in the silliness of some of the claims. 

Instead, they snickered over the poke at the Globe and Mail and ignored the Premier's other Palinesque claim that he often used The Independent for his "own research".  Recall that he has said a number of times that he does not have time to read books.  He just reads lots of - unspecified - other things.

Check the transcript indicentally and see the number of times a guy supposedly too uber-busy to even make notes on things so important he might want to follow up about later on can conduct his "own research" into issues.

The local coverage stuck pretty much to the gainsburgers:

CBC:

Premier Danny Williams apologized Tuesday for any grief and anguish that Newfoundland and Labrador breast cancer patients have suffered because of flawed laboratory tests. 

"We take this personally," Williams told the Cameron inquiry Tuesday. "We certainly take responsibility, full responsibility, for any actions ... that might have contributed to this problem."

Voice of the Cabinet Minister:

The Executive Director of the Canadian Cancer Society says he believes most people will accept Premier Danny Williams' apology, made at the Cameron Inquiry yesterday. Williams apologized on behalf of government to all who were impacted by the faulty breast cancer hormone receptor testing results. The Cancer Society's Peter Dawe says the words of remorse from the Premier seemed sincere.

The Telegram:  

“ I think it’s right I do so,” began Williams, launching into a seven-minute statement.


“I want to apologize to the patients and to their loved ones and their families for what has happened here. I apologize as the current premier and I apologize on behalf of previous governments and premiers … that if we’ve hurt these people, in some way they’ve suffered, that I can certainly assure them it was not deliberate.”

Williams said there was no intention to harm anybody “under any circumstances.”

A little distance from the subject matter  - however - gives an entirely different perspective, one that is sure to cause some controversy. 

The Globe editorial points to some issues that should serve as the basis for deeper inquiry or cause greater concern than they evidently have within the first 24 hours of post-testimony coverage. There are other aspects of the testimony which should cause news editors to send reporters digging for more details.

The bigger story lies in those details.

It's amazing what you can see when you look.

Or to borrow another metaphor, it's amazing what you find when you scuba dive, as opposed to jet ski.

Let's see if anyone bothers to don the tanks.

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The pain for Iceland-o-philes

For some, Iceland remains a model to emulate.

For others, not so much.

18% interest rates are a thing of the past for the rest of us.

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DBRS releases detailed NL rating report

Dominion Bond Rating Service released its detailed report on Tuesday to back the changed rating for the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador.

On October 22, DBRS upgraded the province's long-term debt rating to "A from A(low)" but adjusted the trending assessment from "Positive" to "Stable".  The short-term debt rating remained at "R-1(low)" with "Stable" trending.

The detailed report cites strengths, such as the reduced debt burden, growth of the offshore and a competitive tax position.

At the same time, DBRS cites several challenges. 

Consistent with comments by the province's auditor general, DBRS notes the heavy reliance of the provincial budget on oil revenues which, DBRS says "introduces volatility to the fiscal results".

DBRS also noted unfunded pension liabilities and potential dependence on federal government transfers as issues of concern:

(3) Unfunded pension liabilities remain sizeable, projected at just over $2 billion in 2007-08. The Province has made considerable efforts to reduce these liabilities, largely as a result of the 2005 Atlantic Accord and other special contributions to help improve the funding position of both the teachers’ and public servants’ pension plans. However, declining interest rates and the recent deterioration in equity markets are likely to further add to unfunded liabilities.

(4) Through growing resource revenues, the Province has seen its reliance on federal transfers fall from greater than 40% in the 1990s to roughly 23% in 2007-08 but is nonetheless susceptible to significant changes in federal transfer programs. Any drop in resource revenues could result in a reversal of this trend and return to greater dependence on federal wealth redistribution programs.

DRBS is forecasting small surpluses through to 2010-2011 when it anticipates expenditures will outpace revenue growth. The surplus for 2008, given in the earlier release as $291 million, is actually exactly the surplus forecast by the finance minister.  DBRS appears to have included an anticipated under-expenditure on capital account which makes up the difference.

However, it is important to note the difference in the accounting method used for the DBRS report and the finance minister's statement about a surplus compared to the figures presented in The Estimates.  The premier alluded to this in an interview last week but didn't explain it.

DBRS' revenue projections report money in the year in which it was earned.  Hence, it includes revenue from the 2005 offshore deal.  However, that money was already received in 2005 and has been spent.  It can't be received and spent twice.

The provincial budget documents (particularly The Estimates) account for this by deducting that amount in its calculation of borrowing requirements. The unaudited report on the Consolidated Revenue Fund (issued in August for Fiscal Year 2007) makes a similar adjustment as it reconciles a simple statement of revenues and expenditures with the actual cash flows.  Thus, an apparent increase in revenues of $1.4 billion becomes a borrowing requirement of $110 million once all the financial transactions have been accounted for.

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Oil down again..and the future won't be the same

Front month light, sweet crude (WTI) settled at US$63.22 on the New York Mercantile Exchange Monday, down $1.45 from Friday's close.

Brent light sweet settled at US$60.30  a barrel down almost $27 from the provincial budget's assumed average price. Oil companies operating offshore Newfoundland and Labrador use Brent as the reference price for crude from the Hibernia, Terra Nova and White Rose fields offshore Newfoundland and Labrador.

While there is some uncertainty as to what effect falling crude prices will have on the current budget, a general recession in major markets and a lower price of oil could serious reduce provincial government revenues in 2009.

At an average price of US$60 a barrel, annual production of 120 million barrels and a dollar premium of 30%, the province's oil royalties would be something on the order of $1.5 billion.  At 100 million barrels - slightly below the current year forecast of 111 million - the royalty take would be slightly more than $1.3 billion.

That is between $200 million and $400 million below the current year royalty projections in the budget.

To put that in perspective, bear in mind that if all the budget projections came true for the current fiscal year, the provincial government would be short $414 million on current and capital account and $794 million short overall.

Given the high oil prices at the front end of the fiscal year and the healthy consumer spending, the budget may come up balanced at the end of the year.  It almost certainly won't be in a surplus as it hasn't been in surplus for the past two fiscal years by any measure most people would understand.  If you have to borrow $110 million at the end of the year to pay off the bills and settle up accounts, then there was never really a surplus of $1.0 billion of $1.3 billion as claimed.  It may have existed in some form of accounting but at the end, the budget came up cash short.

As an aside, the Premier tossed aside an opposition claim that there was confusion coming from provincial government statements on the economic crunch.  He said something to the effect that the opposition spokesman didn't know the difference between cash and accrual accounting.

That's really neither here nor there.  In his news release last week, Kelvin Parsons noted that Dominion Bond Rating Service had projected a surplus of $291 million while the provincial finance minister had forecast $544 million when he brought down the budget last year.  Both those numbers are expressed on the same basis, as is plain from the context in the DBRS news release.

In other words, DBRS is projecting a smaller surplus than the one the government had projected. That much is absolutely correct:  $544 million versus $291 million

By the same token, the comparisons at Bond Papers - which some may  be finding a bit tedious at this point - have been done on a comparison of apples with apples.

No matter how one looks at it, the odds are high that the provincial budget for Fiscal Year 2009 (starting 01 April 2009), will have to either reduce public spending or undertake some borrowing.  If the current budget were repeated exactly as is  - exactly the same spending levels - and allowing only for the reduced oil revenues, the provincial government would have to borrow almost as much money as it would take in in oil revenues in order to balance the books.

Think about that for a second.

For the past two years, the provincial government has been able to underestimate oil revenues knowing that - in all likelihood - actual revenues would greatly exceed what they forecast.  At the end of the year, they have claimed huge surpluses.  In fact, the spending projections took into account the anticipated real price for oil, as opposed to the conveniently low-balled assumption. The auditor general made reference in his report earlier this year to the tendency in recent years to inflate spending based on highly volatile oil prices.

Starting this year, however, that pattern of low-balling revenues has essentially failed.  The global downturn, now estimated to last into 2010, means that for at least one and possibly the next two fiscal years after this current one, the provincial government will be dealing with dramatically reduced revenues.  At the very least, they can't count on the conjuring trick of windfalls to get them out of the heavy level of planned spending without resorting to borrowing.

And if you consider it, borrowing even a half a billion dollars a year is not a huge amount on a budget of $6.0 billion or more.

It is a huge amount if one considers doing that for a couple of years will add a billion dollars or so to the provincial direct debt.

It is a huge amount when one considers that at the same time, the provincial government is considering launching a development project on the Lower Churchill that could add as much as $6.0 to $9.0 billion on a public debt (accumulated borrowing) which is already hovering at about $8.5 billion.

Discussing the state of the current provincial budget balance may not be as useful and exercise as forecasting for 2009. The current administration may have to actually make difficult choices, for the first time in a very long time.

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Christmas book list: another PM's memoir

Not every prime minister writes a book worth reading. 

Pierre Trudeau's memoir was nothing if not dull as dishwater.

Not even every politician's memoirs are worth the cost of first printing.

Who was smart and waited to get Tobin's thingy in the remainder bin?

From the reviews, Paul Martin's book won't fall into the dull category.

The blurb:

Paul Martin was the Prime Minister we never really knew — in this memoir he emerges as a fascinating flesh and blood man, still working hard to make a better world.

“The next thing you know, I was in a jail cell.” (Chapter 2)

“From the moment I flipped his truck on the road home to Morinville. . .” (Chapter 3)

“When I came back into Aquin’s headquarters I had a broken nose.” (Chapter 4)

These are not lines that you expect in a prime ministerial memoir. But Paul Martin — who led the country from 2003 to 2006 — is full of surprises, and his book will reveal a very different man from the prime minister who had such a rough ride in the wake of the sponsorship scandal.

Although he grew up in Windsor and Ottawa as the son of the legendary Cabinet Minister Paul Martin, politics was not in his blood. As a kid he loved sports, and had summer jobs as a deckhand or a roustabout. As a young man he plunged into family life, and into the business world. After his years as a “corporate firefighter” for Power Corporation came the excitement of acquiring Canada Steamship Lines in Canada’s largest ever leveraged buy-out, “the most audacious gamble of my life.”

In 1988, however, he became a Liberal M.P., ran for the leadership in 1990 and in 1993 became Jean Chrétien’s minister of finance, with the country in a deep hole. The story of his years as perhaps our best finance minister ever leads to his account of the revolt against Chrétien, and his time in office.

Great events and world figures stud this book, which is firm but polite as it sets the record straight, and is full of wry humour and self-deprecating stories. Far from ending with his defeat in 2006, the book deals with his continuing passions, such as Canada’s aboriginals and the problems of Africa.

This is an idealistic, interesting book that reveals the Paul Martin we never knew. It’s a pleasure to meet him.

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You know it's bad when...

the Republican presidential and vice-presidential candidates are taking potshots at each other, even if it is through their staffs.

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Christmas book list: Public broadcasting in Newfoundland

Jeff Webb's The Voice of Newfoundland: A Social History of the Broadcasting Corporation of Newfoundland, 1939–1949 is in bookstores now.

The blurb:

Similar to the CBC and BBC, the Broadcasting Corporation of Newfoundland was a public broadcaster that was at the centre of a cultural and political change from 1939 to 1949, during which Newfoundland faced wartime challenges and engaged in a constitutional debate about whether to become integrated into Canada. The Voice of Newfoundland studies these changes by taking a close look at the Broadcasting Corporation of Newfoundland’s radio programming and the responses of their listeners.

Making excellent use of program recordings, scripts, and letters from listeners, as well as government and corporate archives, Jeff A. Webb examines several innovative programs that responded to the challenges of the Great Depression and Second World War. Webb explores the roles that radio played in society and culture during a vibrant and pivotal time in Newfoundland's history, and demonstrates how the broadcaster’s decision to air political debates was pivotal in Newfoundlanders’s decision to join Canada and to become part of North American consumer society.

An engaging study rich in details of some of twentieth-century Newfoundland’s most fascinating figures, The Voice of Newfoundland is a remarkable history of its politics and culture and an important analysis of the influence of the media and the participation of listeners.

Put it on the Christmas gift list of someone you know who wants an insightful look at an aspect of broadcasting in pre-Confederation Newfoundland and Labrador.

Don't mind the University of Toronto Press website that says the book is not yet published or the price, listed at $65.00 cloth.

You can find it in local bookstores now, in paperback for under $30.

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Simple: Obama's in front by a mile

Sometimes newspaper stories on political polls are amusing if only because they go to great lengths to explore a relatively simple thing.

Like say, a story in the Globe and Mail that makes it sound like there is some confusion in polling results such that no one knows whether Barack Obama is leading John McCain or vice versa.

The Associated press poll this past week showing Obama and McCain ina dead heat is an outlier.  It's wrong. It's Dewey beats Truman all over again.

Pretty well every other national poll in the United States has Obama significantly ahead of McCain.

And if you want a look at all the polls - national and local - trending over time, try the really neat interactive display the New York Times posted online.

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Premier's comments on public finance confusing; likely no clarity until late November

One the one hand, Premier Danny Williams believes the provincial government will be able to avoid slipping into deficit in this fiscal year:

"I'm confident we will be OK. Now look, if oil drops to $10 a barrel, that is a whole different situation, but we certainly don't see that happening," he said.

In the same interview with CBC's David Cochrane, he said this:

"So if we're [$]120 on the front end and we're [$]60 on the back end, we end up exactly where we budgeted," he said.

"Exactly where we budgeted" is a $414 million deficit on the combined current and capital account and a further $380 million in borrowing to cover other financial transactions for a grand total of $794 million in new debt.

That's not the $544 million surplus the finance minister mentioned in his budget speech.

It isn't the $291 million surplus Dominion Bond Rating Service projected just this week.

And it sure as heck isn't anything close to meeting or exceeding the surplus projections.  In early October, Memorial University economist Wade Locke predicted that the provincial government "should have a budget surplus even bigger than they what they had forecast." That wasn't even likely when he made the prediction.

Oh, by the way, the shortfall last year - covered by new borrowing - amounted to $110 million, not the $88 million reported in the spring budget.  You'll find the revised figure in a report on the government spending for Fiscal Year 2007 published quietly - without a news release or a mention in public - last August.

The confused picture of the provincial government's financial state won't be made any clearer until late November - or maybe early December - when the finance minister issues a "mid-year" financial update. 

The middle of the fiscal year is October.

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A lighter moment

While the news contains more details of the global financial crisis, let's just enjoy some accounting levity from an earlier time.

The Crimson Permanent Assurance, in two parts.

Province slated to post another deficit

Dominion Bond Rating Service said on Wednesday that Newfoundland and Labrador is expected to post a current and capital account of surplus of $291 million.

DBRS did not point out in its news release that even with that current and capital account surplus, the provincial government would need to borrow about $90 million to meet all its budgeted financial obligations.

That means that for the third year running, the provincial government is on track to post a deficit at the end of the fiscal year.

The bond rating agency also did not say that the $291 million figure is well below the $544 million surplus originally included in the budget speech.  DBRS did note that:

while the recent sharp downturn in oil prices introduces uncertainty in the fiscal outlook, the Province’s conservative oil price assumption (US$87 per barrel), the recent depreciation of the Canadian dollar and the fact that oil prices were well above budget throughout the first six months of the fiscal year should help ensure that fiscal targets can still be achieved.

Of course, the DBRS version of the surplus (restricted to capital and current account, not all financial transactions), is closer to the Bond Papers version than it would be to the opinion offered recently by Memorial University economist Wade Locke.

You may recall he predicted that the province was poised to produce a surplus "even bigger than what they had forecast."

The most curious part of the DBRS assessment is this:

Despite near-term challenges, DBRS notes that the Province has accumulated a reasonable cushion to sustain a slowdown in resource activity, including another sizeable surplus foreseen next year. Nevertheless, further improvement in Newfoundland’s ratings will likely depend on the Province’s ability to turn its newly developed resource wealth into sustainable economic growth and maintain fiscal discipline.

Accumulated a reasonable cushion?

That's a bit hard to do if every nickel has been spent over the past few years. 

It's also interesting - if that's even an adequate word - to see a forecast surplus for next year, let alone one that is "sizeable". 

See if you can find any public statements by the provincial government that they will experience a surplus next year.

You might also scratch your head at the portion of the release that indicates:

A moderate rebound [ in gross domestic product growth] is expected for 2009, driven by additional oil production and further progress being made on large capital developments, although the rapid deterioration in global economic conditions maintains uncertainty in the outlook.

Large capital developments like the second refinery at Come By Chance?  Or Hebron, which is not yet sanctioned?  This sounds a bit like the TD Economics forecast that had Hebron pumping oil in 2014, a physical impossibility if ever there was one.

Something suggests this decision by DBRS will be revisited in the next quarter, as the global economic situation shifts.

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NL economy growth forecast to shrivel

TD Economics latest forecast for provincial economies has the Newfoundland and Labrador economy growing at less than one half of one percent in fiscal 2008, the lowest growth rate of any province in the country.

The quarterly forecast, issued October 16, puts real growth in gross domestic product only slightly behind that of Ontario and projects 2009 growth as being about 1.3%.

However, if the oil comments in the forecast are anything to go by, there is reason to doubt the validity of the TD Economics forecast:

After super-sized growth of 9.3% last year led by offshore oil output and exports, the Newfoundland & Labrador economy will struggle to expand, on an annual basis, in 2008. While high oil prices have helped to boost incomes (wage growth is running at 8.7% year-to-date), oil extraction is depressed due [to] the maturation of the oil fields. This will continue into 2009 and 2010. Expansions at the Hibernia and White Rose fields could help level off output, but a sustained rebound in oil production is not in the cards before 2014, which is when the Hebron project could come online.

Hebron won't start construction until about 2013/2014 - according to the project partners - and that assumes the project is sanctioned within the next 12 months.

First oil is not currently expected before 2018, assuming a very short construction.

Even at that point, Hebron will will merely replace production from some existing fields which at that point will likely have been all but exhausted.

TD Economics' forecast for Newfoundland and Labrador matches almost exactly the projections by RBC Economics. Scotiabank's 2008 forecast is higher, at 1%,  while its projection for 2009 matches the TD and RBC projection exactly.

The provincial government's budget forecast [left, Budget Speech]including a 2% shrinkage in real GDP in 2008, growth in 2009 now three times higher than that of private sector forecasters, followed by -2.8% in 2010.  The provincial government forecasts nominal GDP growth at -1.9% in 2009 and -5.0% in 2010.

The province's finance minister hasn't indicated when he will issue a mid-year economic update. He has been portraying the gloomy private sector forecasts as an improvement on the provincial government's own budget estimates.  At the same time, he hasn't reconciled his glowing revenue forecasts with the budget numbers. The contradictions remain unexplained.

While both the Premier and Memorial University economist Wade Locke have given rosy projections for the province's ability to avoid any dramatic consequences from the global crisis, it seems unlikely the Newfoundland and Labrador economy will be able to sustain Locke's pollyannaish claim that government's projections of a half billion dollar surplus will be met or exceeded.

On Wednesday, the Ontario government revised its budget estimates and is now projecting a half billion dollar shortfall for fiscal 2008.

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Crude drops. Major projects threatened?

Front-month crude oil settled at US$66.73 a barrel in trading Wednesday.  The rate for the benchmark West Texas Intermediate fell more than five dollars over the day.

Brent, the benchmark for light, sweet crude offshore Newfoundland and Labrador, finished trading at US$64.52 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Reduced demand is the key factor in the lowered prices.

Some analysts are speculating that major international projects such as oil sands and deep water offshore major be jeopardized by the falling oil prices. However, Husky Energy's John Lau is quoted by the Globe and Mail's Report on Business:

"I'm quite sure major developers with deep pockets will continue to focus on oilsands development," Mr. Lau said. "Oil sands developments are very special projects. [But] in view of the high costs and also labour shortage, most of the of the small projects are facing a lot of challenges."

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Danny's up

At the Cameron Inquiry, that is.

Not much work will be done across Newfoundland and Labrador that day as eyes will be tuned to televisions and to the live stream on the Internet.

Mark the date:  October 28.

There's a bit of history to this, with Williams lashing commission counsel and the commissioner herself after members of Williams' staff gave testimony earlier this year.

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The Big Blue Suck

Danny Williams told Provincial Conservatives on the weekend something to the effect that the federal Liberals in the province were bouyed up by Provincial Conservatives.

He said something about Liberal's claiming there was a Red Tide - which no one has been talking about - being the result of some Blue bubble or other.

Nothing could be further from the truth, as he likes to say.

For your edification, amusement and general annoyance, here are the vote results for the ridings held before this last election by the same Liberals who won them again.

Note that the only significant variation - almost the only variation at all, in fact - was in the near complete collapse of the Conservative vote.

And that's all thanks to the Family Feud.

Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls-Windsor?  Scott Simms increased his vote share as he has done in each election since 2004, but the Blue guys sank.

Ditto Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte where the family Feud just killed off Connies.  It didn't migrate appreciably to anyone else.

And then there's Labrador.  You needn't worry about the smaller parties. 

Just look at the Blue Line.

Almost too small to even notice.

In many parts of the province, the only noise in the election was a big sucking sound for the Blue team.

Comfortable words

According to the provincial premiers, "Canada's economic fundamentals are sound".

Like we haven't heard that one before, and not from Dubya and Steve, either.

There's nothing like an international economic crisis to end the go-it-alone talk, either.

"We're here to indicate to Canadians that we're prepared to act as a united front. We're in good shape, which is not to say there aren't problems, but we're in the best situation in the world."

The premiers apparently agreed to drop inter-provincial trade barriers as one sign of viewing the country as a whole.

People in Newfoundland and Labrador are all too familiar with the go-it-alone stuff, but they've grown so used to the contradictions between the words and the actions, they'll likely wonder how come the two have suddenly matched up on the "we are all Canadians" side.

It's like telling a crowd of Provincial Conservatives in Corner Brook that "[t]his great provincial party has taken our province in a whole new direction towards 'have' status and self-reliance. No more give aways, no more begging from others.…" right after sending the latest round of begging letters to Ottawa.

Jack Harris coined a phrase that will go down in local political history.

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The Big Blue Shaft

After this week's Provincial Conservative convention in Corner Brook, there can be no doubt who approved the Blue Shaft for the opposition caucus budget.

"...So prepare yourselves Yvonne and Lorraine, 'cause the honeymoon is over."

Bond Papers readers won't be surprised by this.  As pointed out in September, the Family Feud caused dissension in the ranks and no one had to eavesdrop on Timmies customers to pick up the disgruntled views of Provincial Conservatives.  Some were fried at the idea of turning on their federal cousins, brothers and sisters. Others thought the Feud would only strengthen the provincial opposition.

Premier Danny Williams put those fears to rest by calling off the Feud the day after the election at the same time as three of his senior caucus mates gave the Shaft to the opposition.

It didn't take long for the conciliatory tone and the shift in Williams' targeting to resonate with Conservatives in the province:

"I'm glad we're turning a corner there," O'Brien said. "It would be nice for him to finally just say it: a Conservative is a Conservative is a Conservative, a Tory is a Tory is a Tory, [and] not constantly distinguish between the two.

"The provincial party and the federal party have slightly different names, but it's the same people, the same family."

Uh huh.

The same family. 

Like some of us didn't know that already.

Williams event went so far as to claim that the Williams Family Feud  caused the Liberal victories in the recent federal election;  he attributed the Liberal rise to a deep blue wave of Provincial Conservatives.

Not exactly.

West of Goobies, the only impact the Feud had was to suppress Conservative votes in the province.

East of Goobies, the Feud suppressed Conservative votes in Avalon to the point where Scott Andrews took the seat with a tiny increase in the Liberal vote. In St. John's East, Provincial Conservatives turned out en masse to back New Democrat Jack Harris, Williams' former law partner.

Harris enjoyed public declarations of support from the Provincial Conservative caucus, as did St. John's South-Mount pearl Liberal candidate Siobhan Coady.  So pronounced were the Provincial Conservatives' declarations of support for specific candidates in the two St. John's ridings one could easily imagine a list had been drawn up and handed down.

However, in St. John's South-Mount Pearl, Coady wasn't the beneficiary of any influx of Blue voters. In a result that could almost be seen as local Conservatives thumbing their nose at the Feud's preference, New Democrat Ryan Cleary picked up twice as many new votes as did his Liberal rival.  Coady still won the seat but the race was nip and tuck through most of the evening as returns poured in.  If those votes were Conservatives, twice as many voted for Cleary than Coady and more even stayed home than Coady polled in new votes compared to her previous outing in 2006.

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Early cabinet shuffle...by CBC NL Online

A provincial cabinet shuffle has been in the works for a while.

Ministers like Kevin O'Brien have made themselves practically a public nuisance on any call-in show imaginable in the past few weeks to pay homage to the backside of their boss, all in hopes of getting a plum at the next cabinet table.

O'Brien, you may recall, was handed a demotion not so long ago, going from the business department to being the fellow who oversees the people who hand out permits and licenses. It's all good stuff but hardly the kind of position for a minister with ambition.

Merv Wiseman, recently a federal Conservative candidate shafted by the provincial agriculture federation in a tasteless display of partisan politics, managed to best O'Brien, at least as far as CBC Newfoundland and Labrador's website was concerned.

An eagle-eyed reader noticed a blurb on the right hand side, took a screen capture and even circled the thing to make sure no one would miss it.

In the ongoing nurses dispute, CBC has video of cabinet ministers "Tom Marshall and Merv Wiseman" giving the government response to the nurses' contract demands.

That should have read Ross Wiseman.

Meanwhile, keep trying Kevin. The Premier says there's two weeks left before he gets around to sorting out the cabinet seating plan. He's had other things on his mind of late.

A tip of the soft cap to EM. At this rate, we'll have to start offering prizes. Stay tuned, on that front.

Update: The CBC webmaster corrected the blurb at some point on Tuesday morning.

-srbp-

...and then there's advertising

which tells a story.

Like in this 1973 advert for Hovis, a bread maker in the United Kingdom.  Directed by Ridley Scott, the television spot has been a persistent favourite in Britain and has been voted as the best television ad of all time.

Look at it.

Feel it.

That's what you do with anything by Ridley Scott.

You see it and feel it and, in 45 seconds or so you feel you want a slice of the bread.

Scott might have difficulty making the same spot today, given that the changes in Britain have likely made it hard for a goodly chunk of the audience to understand broad Yorkshire.

Hovis is currently running a new television ad, also directed by Ridley Scott, that plays off a element of the original. The full length spot runs two minutes, but it also exists in shorter versions more likely to wind up on the telly.

There's not a clothesline in sight, at least not as the feature carrying the thing.

This is another advertisement built on a story and on a feeling.  Men of any age or background can relate to running an errand to the store, of kicking a can or to the thrill of being overflown by a Spitfire.

The feelings of nostalgia and warmth of home are key elements of Scott's two minutes.

Imagine what he could do if they gave him 113.

-srbp-

There's advertising...

Ad agencies from across Atlantic Canada took home awards at the annual ICE awards held in Halifax on October 16th.

Expect to see a news release from the provincial tourism department any day now claiming that the ad program - as opposed to the marketers' creativity - is winning awards for the pitcher plant logo brand thingy.

-srbp-

Hugo under pressure

Venezuela must be experiencing severe economic difficulties.

Hugo Chavez wants the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to cut production in an effort to get oil prices about US$80 a barrel.

Good luck with that, Hugo.

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What's up now, Doc?

A policy windsock, that's what.

Supposedly the chief Family Feud campaigner, Danny Williams, and the entire Provincial Conservative caucus understood that if no Conservative seats in Newfoundland and Labrador meant that there would be no member of parliament would take up the cabinet job of being the province's regional representative in the event the Conservatives were re-elected.

Of course, Williams understood:

But Williams is not worried about the lack of representation. He said the three previous government MPs failed to advance major issues such as custodial management of the fishery and a loan guarantee for the Lower Churchill River hydroelectric project in Labrador.

He said the province will now have seven strong Opposition MPs at the federal level.

People who supported the Family Feud - including Provincial Conservatives like St. John's mayor Doc O'Keefe - understood that as well.

So how come Doc is now trying to orchestrate a campaign to undo the situation that he and his party leader created in the first place?

If Doc feels some obligation to stick his municipal nose into federal/provincial relations now that the election is over, he had an obligation to his honker into the campaign a few weeks ago pointing out the gigantic problem - apparently as he finds it now - inherent in the campaign against the federal Conservatives run by their Provincial Conservative confreres.

Instead of that, O'Keefe and his Provincial Conservative mates on council were doing their own little bit of partisan campaigning against the Liberal Party.

No one should be surprised by this at all, given O'Keefe's record on council for shifting positions more often than most of us change underwear.

Nor, for that matter, should anyone be surprised that the Premier himself appears to be taking an entirely new position on the issue of cabinet representation from the one he held a few days ago:

Premier Williams says it is the Prime Minister's perogative to make cabinet appointments. However he notes, Prime Minister Stephen Harper has a couple of options. He says the Prime Minister could appoint Senator Ethel Cochrane to the Senate or he could fill the vacancy in the Senate and then appoint that person to cabinet.

For his part, the Prime Minister has already said he will appoint a regional minister from among the elected members of his caucus. in other words: no senate appointments.

That makes eminent sense, given that this is exactly what defence minister Peter MacKay said plainly during the campaign and the Prime Minister has spoken about senate reform as a priority for his new administration.

Now five years into the current provincial administration, one gets the sense that major items of public policy are made up on the fly. Positions are shifted based on something other than a sound and detailed analysis.

If memory serves, this is a point made before here at Bond Papers and elsewhere.

This tendency for policy to follow the whim of the moment is ultimately what undermines the effectiveness of the provincial government. People don't know which statement is the real statement.

Is the Prime Minister a man not to be trusted, as Danny Williams said up until Tuesday's vote or is the war over, as he said on the day immediately after the vote?

Is it now possible for the Premier to do business on Wednesday with a kitten-eating lizard from outer space who had to be stopped on Tuesday?

It doesn't take much imagination to realize there is a,problem with consistency here. That problem - and it isn't new - causes people to tune out. They stop listening. If they aren't listening, then the Premier has a gigantic problem.

It's a problem entirely of his own making however.

What's more the rest of us have to hope we all don't pay a price for the windsock follies. The Premier worked the Feud to make sure he was the only spokesperson for the province.

He got what he wanted.

So we must all wonder why he and his political associates are suddenly uncomfortable with their victory.

Hang on a second.

Check the wind.

It might not be such a problem after all.

Oops.

It shifted direction again.

Problem back.

Ooooh. Hang on.

No problem, again.

You get the picture.

-srbp-

Random-Burin-St. Georges: a quick look at the results

 Random-Burin-St. Georges is a relatively new seat resulting from re-apportionment before the 2004 election.

However, the seat continues to trend as a decidedly Liberal seat, carrying on the trend pre-2004.

The 2008 result is not the one to look at closely here.  rather we need to look at 2006. 

That was the year the Provincial Conservatives threw their political weight behind the federal Conservative party.

The Blue team ran a staunch Provincial Conservative closely associated with the Premier. 

She had campaigned relentlessly between 2004 and 2006 against the incumbent, largely by using a refugee family's plight in a church basement as a rod with which to beat the incumbent and his party.

It apparently escaped her notice that the party she ran for had a policy diametrically opposed to her own stated position on this issue. In the end, her campaign was also caught up in the in-out scheme even though, as these results show, Random-Burin-St. Georges was not a lost cause for the Blue team.

The New Democrats ran a candidate from outside the riding in that election.  Not surprisingly, she fared considerably worse than the popular fisheries activist the NDP had run in 2004.

In that race, the Conservatives appear to have pulled voters who had voted NDP in 2004 and added a few thousand more besides.  The Liberal candidate - Bill Matthews - also increased his vote share.  Overall, turnout in the riding increased by slightly less than 4,000  voters.

What we don't see here is a collapse of the Conservative vote.  Rather, in 2008, it sank back to what essentially appears to be its core. The New Democrat vote declined by 3244 but did not slip back to its 2006 level.  The Liberal vote declined by 1100 votes.

Overall, it would appear that the New Democrats in 2008 had picked up some soft vote that in 2006 had gone to the Conservatives.  The bulk of the 2006 Conservative vote stayed home.

More than in some others, the vote pattern in this riding may have been affected by the remittance labour force from the Burin Peninsula currently working in Alberta. Without more detailed analysis it is difficult to know how much of this vote pool actually turned out and if it did, how it voted.

Even though the 2006 incumbent did not seek re-election, this is not a riding that was affected by Family Feud as obviously as in the three ridings on the Avalon peninsula.

It is interesting to speculate, though, what might have happened had the Provincial Conservatives taken an entirely different approach in 2008.

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Friday Follies: a round-up of the week's odds and ends

1.  Pete didn't get the memo:  Peter MacKay apparently didn't hear about the kiss-and-make-up comments from his boss the Prime Minister and Danny Williams over this whole Family Feud thingy.  Speaking with the Chronicle Herald, the guy touted as being minister responsible for Newfoundland and Labrador laid it on the line:

“I think he’s just cooling his jets until his next blow-up," said Mr. MacKay. “He’s got a mercurial personality and all indications are that the next time that the wind changes or he feels offended, he’ll go off like a mad hatter again."

Mr. MacKay, who will likely end up as Newfoundland and La­brador’s representative at federal cabinet, said the premier of Newfoundland and Labrador “has lost the plot."

“It did become so irrational and personally vindictive on the part of a Conservative premier," he said.

Ermmm.

It wasn't the Mad Hatter that went about shouting "Off with her head."

2.  That's so 1960s:  Also in the Chronicle Herald, the accumulated wisdom of a few of Halifax's advertising geniuses.  Like, for instance, Don Veinish from Cossette Atlantic:

Danny Williams’s ABC campaign sure seemed to work, but I have to plead ignorance on whether it involved advertising or not.

Thanks for paying attention, Donny.

Then again, you just about prove the point you made:

People these days are exposed to the best of everything in the communications arena, including advertising. OK-ish ad efforts aren’t OK because they don’t meet the standard and tend to be disregarded or entirely disdained. Bottom line: If advertising had made much of a difference, there would be a difference today. There isn’t.

Speaking of not meeting the standard and tending to be disregarded, wonder how Don would feel about the idea of a billboard on the Gardiner? 

3.  Dons and Peelers:  Turns out that both some local bands of bobbies as well as Oxford University (as well as 11 other universities and assorted government entities) were stunned enough to squirrel away money in Icelandic banks.

4. Suck AND Blow:  New Labour starts to look a lot like old Conservatives, right down to the complete absence of logic:

[Culture (!!!???) secretary Andy] Burnham said that the "online challenge" had resulted in two dangerous tendencies emerging.

Firstly he criticized the burgeoning tendency in television to mimic the user-generated, "here's my blog" feel of much of the Internet, particularly in current affairs and news.

"The Internet as a whole is an excellent source of casual opinion," he said. "TV is where people often look for expert or authoritative opinion."

The second reaction to the rise of the Internet has been a "tendency towards safety first and the tried-and-tested, and way from innovation, risk-taking and new talent", he argued.

So on the one hand television is tending toward innovation, risk-taking and new talent by aping the Internet but at the same time, television is tending away from innovation, risk-taking and new talent.

The only challenge here would seem to come for Andy when thought is involved in his activities. [h/t to Guido Fawkes]

5. Blow and Suck:  Also from Guido, the story of a pollster in a conflict of interest.  Speaking of conflict of interest, thank heavens no pollsters in eastern Canada would do work for government and at the same time release poll results without disclosing that government had helped fund the poll on local politicians' popularity or lack thereof. 

Like say upwards of four times a year?

Nah.

Could never happen.

6.  Blown away?  A google blog search for "danny williams + intimidation" turned up two links to a blog by Paul Russell from Newfoundland and Labrador called Life, Writing and Everything Else.

They contained two references to alleged political intimidation.

Click on the link and you'll find that...

wait for it...

 

 

 

 

 

The blog's gone.

Suddenly.

Not just the posts.

The whole blog.

Hmmm.

Now it's not like he violated the broadcast prohibitions under the Canada Elections Act like at least one local blog did on Tuesday night.

Even if that were the case, the worst that could happen would be a fine.

A big fine.

But not death to the entire operation.

Nope.

Paul Russell, if you're out there, drop us a line and let us know what happened to your blog and those posts.

After all, they're just allegations and as long as they are labeled as such and unless and until someone brings forward evidence to back up the claims, no one should have a problem with it.

-srbp-

Auspicious beginnings

1.  Useful in a Conservative campaign news release with a quote critical of your own party that gets

2.  Highlighted by the Conservative's national newspaper in a story that mentions his

3.  Attack on the leader of his party [Hint: The Lampoon  love quoting Liberals knifing other Liberals in the back] and

4.  the guy's not even sworn in yet.

Yes, with fresh ideas like this, Liberals are well on their way back to power.

-srbp-

Avalon: a quick look at the results

If there ever was a campaign which showed the power of negative campaigning, it's Avalon.

From a time well before the writ dropped, incumbent Conservative Fabian Manning received countless vicious personal attacks.

That includes a reference to Manning as a "traitor" by no less than Premier Danny Williams. That savage rhetoric continued throughout the campaign from many quarters, including from a strong supporter of the Andrews and Harris campaigns.

Liberal Scott Andrews, the only serious competitor piled on relentlessly, lightening up only for the last week or two.

That didn't mean the attacks stopped since the Family Feud deployed at least three cabinet ministers to the area north of the Trans-Canada Highway to work their persuasive magic on local Provincial Conservatives.

Through all that, Manning did phenomenally better than his colleagues in the St. John's ridings. In St. John's East, the Conservatives captured only 20% of the vote from 2006.  In St. John's South-Mount Pearl, 26% of the vote held.

In Avalon, Manning held on to about 60% of his vote from 2006.  Still and all, he lost 7590 votes.

Interestingly enough, the drop in voter turn out and the increased vote for Green, Liberal and New Democrat candidates totals 7582.  That's not likely a coincidence.

What's noticeable in Avalon is that the lost votes didn't migrate to another party. They appear to have just stayed home in large numbers.

Scott Andrews increased the Liberal vote by 4%, or 548 votes. 

The largest jump in votes for any candidate was in the New Democrat column which saw a 70% jump (2343 votes). If those votes came from disgruntled Provincial Conservatives, the attractiveness of New Democrats would largely be defined by one quality:  they aren't Liberals. The same quality likely had a strong influence on Blue voter choice in the St. John's ridings for those who came out to vote.

-srbp-

The Blue Shaft

Narrow partisan considerations reared their ugly head in a meeting of the legislature's management committee.

An independent study commissioned by the House of Assembly management commission recommends an increase in budgets for the Provincial Conservative, Liberal and New Democratic causes in the House of Assembly.

MR. SPEAKER: Okay. Provide base funding for the Government Members’ Caucus of $100,000 annually.

The Chair is ready for discussion.

Ms Burke.

MS BURKE: That is one recommendation that I support.

Joan Burke, education minister and government house leader may have enthusiastically voted money for her political friends but in the end, the Provincial Conservative members of the legislature's internal management commission support every single recommendation, except one. 

That one allocated $162,000 to the Official Opposition office to ensure a well-funded opposition that would have appropriate resources to carry out its important legislative function in a modern democracy.  The study reviewed legislature budgets across Canada and in several foreign parliaments.

The report included a set of general principles on democratic legislatures and caucus funding. They included, among others:

3. The legislature must be strong vis-à-vis the executive in order for democratic government to be effective.

...

5. In adversarial systems, the Opposition and other parties play important roles and need institutionalized protections.

...

One cannot imagine a more straightforward set of principles.  In order to drive home their point on the importance of a legislature with a properly funded opposition, the authors included an observation on events in several provinces where opposition benches were depleted after an election:

The crucial thing is that there has to be informed opposition, and that takes resources. However, one other consideration is germane here. That is that in first-past-the-post (single member plurality) systems such as those that exist in Canada, there is a danger of opposition shut-outs or quasi shut-outs as the electoral system exaggerates the winner’s share of seats. This has been seen in general elections in the provinces of Newfoundland and Labrador, PEI, New Brunswick, Alberta and British Columbia. There needs to be a kind of “Opposition Bill of Rights” to deal with such anomalies, since Westminster systems
depend on adversarialism.

The Provincial Conservative members took a decidedly different view. Innovation minister Trevor Taylor put it this way:

MR. TAYLOR: Mr. Chairman, I don’t need to reiterate everything that Ms Burke just said, but I think if you just look at it from a perspective, a base allocation, one would think that a base allocation would be a base for all caucuses. Why the principles of Metrics EFG would differentiate is hard for me to follow, to be honest about it. [Emphasis added]

That last statement could not be more painfully obvious or true.

The extent to which the Provincial Conservative members also picked at petty issues is evident in the transcript of the session.  Education minister Joan Burke seemed concerned either to micromanage issues - as with Memorial University - or to ensure that no one got a few dollars more in his or her budget than she had available in hers:

MS BURKE: I have a question on that, and I think it may be just a clarification.

It says that the assistant to the Opposition House Leader is $49,000 and the assistant to the Government House Leader is $43,000. So, is this simply a case where there is a step progression but it would be the same job?

Okay, I just wanted to clarify that because in the report it kind of stands out as to why and I thought that would have been the explanation.

MR. SPEAKER: Yes. My understanding is that the assistant to the Leader of the Opposition has gone through the step progression to reflect that salary, and the assistant to the Government House Leader will do the incremental steps to get up to that particular salary as well.

MS BURKE: In essence what we are saying is, instead of it being, say, $49,000 there, that would depend, I guess – that is only an indication of where an individual would be on a step. If that position changed tomorrow, that $49,000 could potentially be, I do not know, $38,000 or $39,000.

Outside the meeting the Provincial Conservatives defended their actions as being about responsible management of public spending. 

-srbp-

St. John's East: a quick look at the results

Jack Harris was the beneficiary of a double whammy on Tuesday.

First of all, Danny Williams' former law partner profited from the near total collapse of the Conservative vote as a result of the Family feud.

Well known Provincial Conservative Ed Buckingham's appearance at Jack's campaign launch foretold a considerable movement of Blue to Orange.

It was no accident.

Provincial cabinet ministers supported Harris publicly.  Even without turning out at Jack's headquarters, they could easily mobilise their own teams to drive votes to the polls for Harris.

Second of all, Harris profited from the  collapse of the Liberal vote, attributable almost entirely to Walter Noel's candidacy. While less dramatic than the Conservative drop, the Liberal candidate shed over 9000 votes all of which appear to have moved to the New Democrats on their own.

In some media interviews Harris pointed to an increased voter turnout in the riding, as if that showed some ground swell of support for his candidacy beyond the Family Feud effect.

Horse hockey.

The increase in turnout from 2006 was 875, a mere 2% jump.

The tale of the electoral tape in St. John's East is easy to see. Add the NDP 2006 number to the difference in votes for the Liberals and Conservatives.  You'll find yourself close as can be to Harris' vote count.

Early commentary suggested that Harris' win and the strong showing of former Independent editor Ryan Cleary in St. John's South-Mount Pearl marked some radical new age for the province's New Democrats:

“I think one of the stories of this election is the real dawning of a new day for the NDP in this province,” said [Memorial University political science professor Christopher] Dunn. “It really has firm urban roots here now.”

In fact, the NDP’s Ryan Cleary was neck in neck with Liberal Siobhan Coady in St. John’s South-Mount Pearl for most of the night, before Coady pulled away taking the seat by 1,047 votes, a mere three per cent difference in the popular vote between the two.

“It also shows the NDP is becoming very serious about its choice of candidates. When they run candidates with high profiles, they do very well,” continued Dunn who called Harris a “force to be reckoned with.”

That's not the case if one assesses where the vote came from.

In both St. John's East and St. John's South-Mount Pearl, the surge in New Democrat votes came predominantly from Provincial Conservatives.  Of Harris' total vote, about half came from the Provincial Conservatives. Another political alignment will rob the NDP of that support just as easily as it was delivered.

One point doesn't make a trend, but another kind will burst a few bubbles.

Pop!

-srbp-

St. John's South-Mount Pearl: a quick look at the results

The Family Feud had a pretty clear impact on the vote result in St. John's South-Mount Pearl.

The difference between the Conservative vote in 2006 and the Conservative vote in 2008 is the increase in Liberal and New Democrat vote, a smattering of votes for the other candidates and a large group (almost 3,000) that apparently didn't vote.

These would be almost entirely Provincial Conservatives who were constrained in their choices by activities within their own normal political camp.

The New Democrats were primary beneficiary of the Feud with an increased vote of 5810.  Some 2927 didn't vote, apparently.  The Liberal vote share increased by 2635.

Overall turnout was slightly above that of 2004 - when there was another spat within the Conservative party - but the total count of eligible voters increased as well from 2004 to 2008.

Liberal and New Democratic vote share did not change appreciably from 2004 to 2006.  The increase in Conservative vote in 2006, compared to 2004, can be attributed to a suppression that resulted from internal problems between the Provincial and federal Conservatives.  In 2006, the Provincial Conservatives supported their federal brethren openly.

-srbp-

The real ABC goal

Bond Paper's post election summary:

"...the Blue Machine is a better friend than enemy, at least for other Blue people."

Danny Williams' post-election summary:

“If there had been a good rapport … they possibly could have 150 seats. That would put them in striking distance of a majority,” he said.

Ahem.

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The NL election summary

1.  Since 1949, Newfoundlanders and Labradorians have typically voted in the majority anything but Conservative in federal elections.  Biggest thing to remember, but every single one of the media types and most of the local pundits just got lost in the Family Feud hype.  It spilled over into national reporting which was - for the most part - facile.

2.  The biggest impact of the Family Feud in 2008 was to bleed the federal Conservatives of candidates, money and volunteers.  It also suppressed the Conservative vote since Provincial Conservatives typically vote for their federal cousins.

Take a look at the results.  Turn outs are down.  The people who didn't vote are mostly Blue people.

The Conservatives got a taste of the Feud in 2004 when the Provincial Conservatives didn't turn out in any numbers for their friends.  There was no organized campaign, but there was a chill.

3.  St. John's East.  Jack Harris profited from picking up some of the Blue vote but his real surge came from the near total collapse of the Liberal vote. That wasn't ABC.  That was ABW.

4.  Avalon.  A couple of big changes in the last two weeks helped to really make the difference. 

First, Scott Andrews toned down the shrill rhetoric and started to sound like a member of parliament. He started to sound like someone to vote for instead of a guy picking up votes against someone else.  That seems to have had its biggest impact in the part of the riding north of the Trans Canada Highway which, for the most part, has tended to vote Red in federal elections.

Andrews was working hard anyway but as he started to sound more like the guy most of us know, it looks like he shifted votes.

Second, the Provincial Conservatives deployed some of their cabinet ministers and workers to twist arms. Whether that pulled votes to Andrews or suppressed Blue votes, the result was the same.

5.  St. John's South-Mount Pearl.  Midway through the election, poll results showed the Liberals and New Democrats holding onto their vote shares from the past two elections. The Blue votes sat in the undecided category.

At the polls, the Blues came out in a split between Orange and Red, with both picking up nearly equal shares.  Incumbency has its advantages if they can be understood and used effectively.

6.  Random-Burin-St. Georges.  Not a seat that figured in most people's "Watch" list since it's usually gone Red, but the story here is one of an experienced campaigner who worked hard to get the nomination and then to win the seat.  Judy Foote is a former provincial cabinet minister and someone to watch for in the months ahead.  She's tough and savvy and the two Liberal newbies would do well to watch closely what Judy does.

7.  The future.  The lesson of this election is that a divided Blue team leaves the field open. If the Conservatives can heal the rift, then the next federal election could turn out quite differently. Given the seat counts, Provincial Conservatives could have wielded gigantic  - maybe even unprecedented  - influence if they'd turned out for their friends and looked to turn more seats Blue.  They have a machine and they could have used it for niceness, at least for Conservatives.

Instead, they opted to cut throats. 

That might be too much for their brethren to forgive.  Then again, the game theorists in Ottawa might realize that even confined to a single province, the Blue Machine is a better friend than enemy, at least for other Blue people.

If the rift heals, then the next election could have vastly different results.

Jack Harris will have a time facing the likes of Beth Marshall in St. John's East.   Siobhan Coady will face someone like Tom Osborne who comes backed with a family clan that dominates the metro St. John's Conservative scene.

In Avalon, we might expect Fabian Manning to try a comeback.  He'll get some kind of reward for his loyalty.  Depending on what it is, he could be spending the next few months working hard to win back the seat he held until tonight.

The votes might be counted in seven sits, but this fight ain't over yet.

-srbp-

The greatest piece of nonsense in a generation

Memorial University political science professor Michael Temelini likes to refer to the 2005 Atlantic Accord as an example of what can happen in a minority parliament.

The greatest piece of public policy in a generation he calls it.

That's not hyperbole.

That's just nonsense.

The 2005 agreement simply transferred $2.0 billion in federal cash to provincial coffers.  It hasn't produced a penny of new money since then.  It won't produce any more since the provincial government ceases to qualify for Equalization this year and won't qualify to renew the deal.

What Temelini either forgets or doesn't know is that offshore oil sits - constitutionally  - in federal jurisdiction. 

Under the real Atlantic Accord - signed in 1985 - the provincial government basically gets de facto control of the offshore, and more importantly sets and collects 100% of revenues as if the resource was on land.  The federal government collects typical federal revenues like income taxes, GST and corporate taxes.

All the royalties go to the provincial government.

And that's where they stay until the provincial government spends them.

Not a penny goes to Ottawa.

Never has.

At least not since 1985.

The enabling legislation for the real Atlantic Accord passed through parliament in 1987.  The provincial enabling legislation passed around the same time.

The agreement was signed between two majority governments.

But here's the thing.

Legally, constitutionally, the federal government wasn't obliged to do anything at all, let alone sign the 1985 deal.

The 1985 Atlantic Accord was one of the greatest pieces of Canadian public policy in a generation.

It is the sole foundation on which the provincial government's oil revenues rest.

Take that away and the 2005 deal is nothing at all

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Incompetence or corruption?

Either way, you can call it a plague.

There's no other word that comes easily to mind to describe the insidious, weasel-politicking that goes on in far too many organizations across the province. 

The federation of agriculture is not the first group and it sadly won't be the last one to have a board whose members, at some point, think it more important to cave in to perceived political pressure rather than do the right thing.

The sorry truth is that boot-licking and arse-kissing are old political staples in Newfoundland and Labrador.  Politicians don't even need to ask to have their best wellies tongue-shined to perfection.

Take a look at the extracts from a letter from the agriculture federation board to Merv Wiseman, currently the Conservative candidate in St. John's South-Mount Pearl.

What we have in the case of the agriculture federation and Merv Wiseman is not something as simple as a poorly worded letter conveying a board decision about the dates of Wiseman's leave of absence.  That's what the federation tried to say when this issue erupted.

Rather we have clear evidence that the federation board wished to avoid causing any difficulty with the current administration by directing the president to stay away from the meeting.  This could have been handled more diplomatically.  This certainly might not have even been an issue, given that Wiseman will hardly be in any shape to go back to his usual job with the federation tomorrow.

From the context of the letter, the meaning is unmistakable.

And it is wrong.

This sort of situation is not something unique to the current administration;  the same sort of anti-democratic decisions have been taken by groups in the past.  It's just that with the current crowd,  in an environment where going against the government is called treason - and people actually stand up for their right to use such savage language -  the weak-minded and morally bankrupt out there take that as a sign that all those who are potentially not in the favour of the government must be silenced.

Some of them think they will get brownie points for attacking the regime's enemies. 

Take a look at two of the final paragraphs and you can see that the board understood full well the gravity of the decision it made and the reasons for it.

Notice that last bit:  it says - in effect - that if Wiseman wants to put the best interests of the industry first he will concur with the board's decision to stay away from the next meeting.

What sanctimonious tripe.

To her credit, the provincial minister responsible for agriculture has already distanced herself from the federation and this letter.  She couldn't do anything else and still retain a semblance of dignity.

But for the record, she ought to make it plain that it is never in the best interests of the province for any board of any organization anywhere to take the decision that the federation did.

We are all cheapened by such a fundamentally anti-democratic sentiment.

Wiseman ought not to attend the meeting because he is on a leave of absence.

The board told him not to attend because of the ongoing controversy between the current provincial administration and its federal counterpart.

The former is legitimate.

The latter is indefensible.  The board ought to resign immediately, en masse.  It has shown itself to be incompetent at best or political corrupt at worst.

 

-srbp-

International roundup of financial crisis developments

1.  The United Kingdom will loan Iceland 100 million pounds sterling to assist its Landesbanki repay British creditors of the nationalised Icelandic bank.

This is not surprising given the number of local councils that did their banking through Icesave, the Landsbanki subsidiary:

But there was increasing concern about the amount of British public and charitable-sector money deposited in Iceland's stricken banks. As much as £1bn of local council money is thought to be at stake, with British charities estimating their exposure at around £60m. "There are more than 50 charities that have deposits there," said Stephen Bubb, chief executive of the Association of Chief Executives of Voluntary Organisations.

2.  Meanwhile in Scotland, Scottish nationalists are putting a brave face on the financial crisis. According to some reports, the first minister has been ducking questions about whether an independent Scotland could have funded a 32 billion pound bailout of Scottish banks.  He's also been faced with questions about the so-called Arc of Prosperity which Scottish nationalists have used as proof that an independent Scotland could do well on its own.  Of the four countries in the arc,  Iceland is teetering on the verge of bankruptcy, Denmark and Ireland are in recession and Norway is experiencing its own difficulties.

As Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling stepped in to save Scotland's two biggest banks, the Scottish Government tried to avoid questions over how an independent Scotland would have coped with the international crisis. A spokesman for Alex Salmond, the First Minister, said he would "not speculate on a theoretical future event" and refused to say whether he believed an independent Scotland could have bailed out its banks to the tune of £32 billion.

However, he insisted the SNP would still try to push through a referendum bill in 2010, even though if people voted Yes to independence, Scotland's two main banks would be owned by a "foreign" UK government.

At the same time, the Scottish local government is looking at ways of avoiding a recession in Scotland.

3.  Dutch local governments are also affected by the Landsbanki problems.  Twelve local councils have a total of 59 million euros with Landsbanki while the province of Zeeland has five million euros in the bankrupt American firm Lehman Brothers.

4.  France, Germany and Russia have announced separate bailout plans worth almost $1.3 trillion.

5.  Ireland and Australia are guaranteeing bank deposits.  The Irish government guarantee applies only to Irish banks, not subsidiaries of foreign banks.

6.  Ireland is about to introduce a tough national budget that will raise hospital charges and cut tax relief.

All hospital charges are to increase significantly - by 10 per cent in many cases, including charges to be treated in accident and emergency, or to have a private bed in a public hospital.

Despite the fee rises, the Health Service Executive will be forced to make serious cuts in existing services to stay within budget - which will be €400 million more than last year, but still not enough to meet extra wage bills and other costs.

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The old Connies make a come back

Hiding candidates from the media and shoving reporters who try and ask a question.

Yeah, not like we haven't seen that before.

Will CTV look for assault charges to be laid?

"The non-consensual application of force by one person to another is an assault."

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Aussie Dippers

It may be the website for The Australian, but a Canadian IP address will turn up a Canadian ad.

There's a CIBC one.

And one for the New Democratic Party and Jack Layton.

There's a pretty creative use of the Internet and it would be interesting to know how many Canadian voters actually saw the Dipper's Aussie ad.

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