These changes to the Order of Newfoundland and Labrador Act are curious if only for the fact they are entirely unnecessary.
The Order was created to honour outstanding contributions by Newfoundlanders and Labradorians to their province. The selection committee consisted of a number of people, including the Chief Justice of the province and the President of Memorial University.
These two positions are now eliminated, supposedly to be replaced by two members of the order.
Unfortunately for Premier Williams explanations in the House of Assembly, his amendments to the legislation don't say that.
They simply reduce the advisory council to a committee comprising the Clerk of the Executive Council (appointed by the premier) and seven other people (also appointed ultimately by the Premier).
In any event, since the original Act didn't specify who was appointed beyond the Chief Justice, the Clerk and the university president, the government had plenty of opportunity to apppoint who they wanted or to amend the legislation to add to the council.
The switcheroo pushed by the Premier looks entirely like what it likely is: the Premier wanted to get rid of some people he didn't like and get personal control over as many appointments as possible.
At least in some instances - like the offshore board - the people of Newfoundland and Labrador will have qualified people appointed by a process the Premier can't gerrymander.
That doesn't stop the Premier from moving to control every little thing in the province.
07 December 2005
Morrow to beat Manning
Lawyer Bill Morrow will carry the Liberal banner in Avalon.
The CBC report carries a bizarre comment: "Sandwiched between the twin Tory stronghold seats based in St. John's and Liberal-dominated ridings in the rest of the province, Avalon is emerging as the most interesting riding to watch."
Avalon is on the western border of both the St. John's ridings and drawfs them both in size. It is not "sandwiched" between them by any stretch of anyones imagination.
To call the St. john's seats "Tory strongholds" is also not based on the last voting results.
But hey, while everyone was quick to start the attacks on Art Reid, theirs was a pre-mature escalation of the political contest.
Now we can see a solid race in Avalon.
and the switcheroo in St. John's.
The CBC report carries a bizarre comment: "Sandwiched between the twin Tory stronghold seats based in St. John's and Liberal-dominated ridings in the rest of the province, Avalon is emerging as the most interesting riding to watch."
Avalon is on the western border of both the St. John's ridings and drawfs them both in size. It is not "sandwiched" between them by any stretch of anyones imagination.
To call the St. john's seats "Tory strongholds" is also not based on the last voting results.
But hey, while everyone was quick to start the attacks on Art Reid, theirs was a pre-mature escalation of the political contest.
Now we can see a solid race in Avalon.
and the switcheroo in St. John's.
06 December 2005
The real story on Gander and weather
VOCM broke the real story on Gander and weather forecasting that everyone else has been missing.
Harper: policy plagiarism - revised
Stevie Harper popped up in Petty Harbour today, just outside St. John's, to reinforce the view that all we have in Newfoundland and Labrador is fish and fishermen. His announcement in the local version of Peggy's (If I see one more "quaint" picture) Cove, focused on fish and not a helluva lot else.
The PM, by contrast, talked about lots of things during his trip here - and sounded like he was enjoying himself as he did it.
Standing side by side with Loyola Hearn, Harper proclaimed his support for a bunch of fisheries things, including a policy that would allow fishermen a capital gains break on transferring ownership of fishing vessels within the family.
He added joint management and custodial management to the pile, demonstrating conclusively that his fish man (Loyola Hearn) is stuck in the 1980s. What's next? A hydroponic cucumber factory in Mount Pearl? Double-daylight savings time?
As Greg Locke reports, one mainland journalist traveling in the Opp Leader bubble babbled that he had no idea what custodial management was. Here's a simple link.
For those who want to see it done properly, they can check the United Nations law of the Sea Convention and the current federal government approach.
Local proponents of custodial management want to force the foreigners off the nose and tail of the Grand Banks and claim the fish as ours to manage. Picking a fight with the Spaniards, French and Portuguese seems like an eminently sensible way of making sure the European Union lowers its tariffs on shrimp imported into the EU from Newfoundland and Labrador.
As for joint management, to paraphrase Harper himself on another topic, the answer to fisheries problems lies not in one group of politicians sharing power with another group of politicians. It comes from giving meaningful influence to those who depend on the fishery for their livelihood. Check the latest House of Commons fisheries committee report for just such an idea. It's blogged here.
*sigh*
Anyway, seems that the capital gains policy was lifted from bill C-343, proposed by Lawrence MacAulay back in February, 2005. It died with the government, like a bunch of other measures.
**Hon. Lawrence MacAulay (Cardigan, Lib.) moved for leave to introduce Bill C-343, An Act to amend the Income Tax Act (capital gains exemption on disposition of fishing property).
He said: Mr. Speaker, the Income Tax Act allows an individual to claim a $500,000 total lifetime exemption for capital gains that arise from the disposal of qualified farm property.
I am pleased to table this bill today which amends the act so that an individual may also claim this exemption in respect of qualified fishing property.
This bill is very important to the fishing industry. I urge the House to support it.
(Motions deemed adopted, bill read the first time and printed)***
Revision: Aside from the bit snipped, here's something from the Charlottetown Guardian from September.
Harper should have looked closer at bill: MP
Cardigan MP Lawrence MacAulay says Opposition Leader Stephen Harper should have taken a closer look at Bill 343 tabled by MacAulay last February before saying that a new Conservative government will provide a capital gains exemption for the first $500,000 of qualifying fishing
property transferred within a family. Harper said he would exempt fishermen from capital gains tax on up to $500,000 on land, licenses or equipment handed to their children. "There is just something wrong with charging capital gains tax when a fishing family wants to transfer assets from one generation to another," said Harper.
Under the Conservative plan approximately 60,000 full- and part-time fish harvesters in Canada would be affected.
But MacAulay says Harper's plan is only a half-measure. MacAulay's private member's Bill 343, given first reading Feb. 25, calls for an exemption on capital gains up to $500,000 on transactions involving any individual, not just family members.
"I just wish Harper would have looked at my bill, and he would not have limited his suggestion to families. My bill is for the entire fishing industry and it is important that it be that way in order to ensure its survival in the small business backbone of the Canadian economy."
The PM, by contrast, talked about lots of things during his trip here - and sounded like he was enjoying himself as he did it.
Standing side by side with Loyola Hearn, Harper proclaimed his support for a bunch of fisheries things, including a policy that would allow fishermen a capital gains break on transferring ownership of fishing vessels within the family.
He added joint management and custodial management to the pile, demonstrating conclusively that his fish man (Loyola Hearn) is stuck in the 1980s. What's next? A hydroponic cucumber factory in Mount Pearl? Double-daylight savings time?
As Greg Locke reports, one mainland journalist traveling in the Opp Leader bubble babbled that he had no idea what custodial management was. Here's a simple link.
For those who want to see it done properly, they can check the United Nations law of the Sea Convention and the current federal government approach.
Local proponents of custodial management want to force the foreigners off the nose and tail of the Grand Banks and claim the fish as ours to manage. Picking a fight with the Spaniards, French and Portuguese seems like an eminently sensible way of making sure the European Union lowers its tariffs on shrimp imported into the EU from Newfoundland and Labrador.
As for joint management, to paraphrase Harper himself on another topic, the answer to fisheries problems lies not in one group of politicians sharing power with another group of politicians. It comes from giving meaningful influence to those who depend on the fishery for their livelihood. Check the latest House of Commons fisheries committee report for just such an idea. It's blogged here.
*sigh*
Anyway, seems that the capital gains policy was lifted from bill C-343, proposed by Lawrence MacAulay back in February, 2005. It died with the government, like a bunch of other measures.
**Hon. Lawrence MacAulay (Cardigan, Lib.) moved for leave to introduce Bill C-343, An Act to amend the Income Tax Act (capital gains exemption on disposition of fishing property).
He said: Mr. Speaker, the Income Tax Act allows an individual to claim a $500,000 total lifetime exemption for capital gains that arise from the disposal of qualified farm property.
I am pleased to table this bill today which amends the act so that an individual may also claim this exemption in respect of qualified fishing property.
This bill is very important to the fishing industry. I urge the House to support it.
(Motions deemed adopted, bill read the first time and printed)***
Revision: Aside from the bit snipped, here's something from the Charlottetown Guardian from September.
Harper should have looked closer at bill: MP
Cardigan MP Lawrence MacAulay says Opposition Leader Stephen Harper should have taken a closer look at Bill 343 tabled by MacAulay last February before saying that a new Conservative government will provide a capital gains exemption for the first $500,000 of qualifying fishing
property transferred within a family. Harper said he would exempt fishermen from capital gains tax on up to $500,000 on land, licenses or equipment handed to their children. "There is just something wrong with charging capital gains tax when a fishing family wants to transfer assets from one generation to another," said Harper.
Under the Conservative plan approximately 60,000 full- and part-time fish harvesters in Canada would be affected.
But MacAulay says Harper's plan is only a half-measure. MacAulay's private member's Bill 343, given first reading Feb. 25, calls for an exemption on capital gains up to $500,000 on transactions involving any individual, not just family members.
"I just wish Harper would have looked at my bill, and he would not have limited his suggestion to families. My bill is for the entire fishing industry and it is important that it be that way in order to ensure its survival in the small business backbone of the Canadian economy."
Wells adrift in oil patch
Most of the bluster is gone.
Premier Danny Williams is accepting Max Ruelokke [pronounced roo-lock] as the new chairman and chief executive officer of the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board.
it was almost bizarre to hear Williams praising Ruelokke's extensive experience - bizarre given that Ruelokke was likely in consideration in the round of candidates Danny Williams scuttled in favour of a completely unqualified candidate named Andy Wells.
The Premier's comments about "the process not being finished" is just some bluster to cover over the fact that he was completely outmanoeuvered by the guys who actually read the Atlantic Accord and applied the terms of the contract.
The process is finished.
Ruelokke's in.
Wells was never even close.
Premier Danny Williams is accepting Max Ruelokke [pronounced roo-lock] as the new chairman and chief executive officer of the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board.
it was almost bizarre to hear Williams praising Ruelokke's extensive experience - bizarre given that Ruelokke was likely in consideration in the round of candidates Danny Williams scuttled in favour of a completely unqualified candidate named Andy Wells.
The Premier's comments about "the process not being finished" is just some bluster to cover over the fact that he was completely outmanoeuvered by the guys who actually read the Atlantic Accord and applied the terms of the contract.
The process is finished.
Ruelokke's in.
Wells was never even close.
05 December 2005
What Steve giveth, he taketh away too.
Flanked by his senior policy team, Conservative leader Stephen Harper today announced a $1200 allowance to be paid annually to families for each child under six years old.Sounds great.
Then the zinger: the money will be taxable.
The Liberal proposal is to fund child care spaces in accredited facilities and support early childhood education.
Corporal Taylor - give all the facts
Left - Mobile Gun SystemNot much surprise in the return of former Corporal Scott Taylor as an expert military commentator. His comments on the new transport aircraft purchase and the army's proposed mobile gun system are linked from Bourque, but here is the Taylor piece.
Taylor criticizes the proposed transport purchase by calling the J Herc a new version of the aircraft currently ins service. He's right - except that Taylor doesn't point out that there are no other aircraft currently flying that can meet the requirement.
Taylor talks about strategic airlifters. Again, there are no plans to purchase them but Taylor neglects to point out that Canada does not have a requirement for a fleet of heavy-lift aircraft that would justify the operating costs. Nor does he note that heavy lift is readily available in all foreseeable cases.
Taylor also criticizes the army's mobile gun system (MGS), essentially a version of the light armoured vehicle with a big gun on it. He notes comments by General Rick Hillier that the MGS was vulnerable to rocket propelled grenades. Note the use of the word "was" there.
The MGS and its LAV cousins were vulnerable to rocket propelled grenades. This was painfully obvious from operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.
What Taylor didn't say was that a simple, add-on armour system corrects that flaw. The Department of National Defence has already called a tender for the add-on armour for its fleet of wheeled armoured vehicles. Problem solved.
Left - LAV III with add-on armour defeats rocket propelled grenades.Yes, the LAV family with add-ons is now too heavy to be carried by a Hercules - but other airlift and sealift is readily available. As it is, even without the add-on armour, the Canadian Herc fleet couldn't transport enough LAVs in a short time frame anywhere in the world to make much of a difference.
In the old days, Taylor's criticisms were well-founded, largely due to the inept Department of National Defence. His job was easy - he didn't have to know much to point to really obvious problems. Taylor built a name for himself among news media as a result.
These days Taylor's criticisms are based on not providing information that is already in the public domain which contradicts his conclusions.
Way to go, Scott.
Who owns loyolahearn.com?
Ok.
While I am starting to dig deeper into the mystery of Loyola Hearn's website, he has the one he used as a member of parliament.
Not a lick of campaign information here. Last time out, Loyola reformatted the pages on the parliamentary site so he could stuff campaign materials there, then switched back again later. El cheapo, for sure.
There's still some funny stuff, though. Like the news release headlined "Hearn introduces Private Member'Â’s Bill to help restore the Democratic Deficit".
Aside from the overdone capitalization, this means that Hearn wants to bring back the democratic deficit rather than eliminate it. Doesn't anyone in his office read English?
Hearn's motion would require that a by-election be held within 90 days of the resignation or death of a member of parliament. Maybe he should have introduced a motion requiring members of parliament to vote with the province instead of their party. Or maybe Hearn could have passed a motion that would prevent an MP from voting for a bill so he could vote against it.
Or maybe he should have tried an anti-hypocrisy motion to prevent a member of parliament from lambasting an opponent and then crying foul when the same populist e-mail storm hits his own e-mail in-basket.
There's still the mystery of the dot com site though. While I search, enjoy the sojourn over at Norm Doyle's tiny piece of cyberspace.
Norm Doyle's website is a mere blue page with a link to his e-mail address. The high-spending Doyle must be too busy to get his website up and inform voters of his views - like trying to end equal marriage.
I just can't wait to hear what else Norm wants to do.
Bring back the noose, maybe?
How about public flogging?
Take back the vote from women?
Meanwhile...
Seems that loyolahearn.com is registered to something called Canada Christian College, with the contact name on the account belonging to the college's president Dr. Charles McVety.
This is a bit wacky since there doesn't appear to be any logical reason why Charles McVety would own a website for Loyola Hearn.
McVety is the president of both Canada Christian College and the Christian Family Action Coalition. He's also involved with a number of similar political action groups like defendMarriage.
There is no indication of any direct connection between Hearn and McVety or any of the groups McVety heads. There's no sign the two even know each other.
Perhaps this site might explain it, although I still find the whole thing curious.
Seems that McVety has been cybersquatting - buying up the domains for members of parliament. Some of the sites have been activated, but for what purpose no one can say. Go to the sites named for Gerald Keddy or Don Boudria. They are almost identical.
My guess? McVety bought loyolahearn.com when hearn may have appeared to be waivering in his voting record on issues of concern to McVety. Doyle on the other hand had a perfect record and therefore wouldn't need to be pressured in cyberspace. Check Bouquets of Grey for just such ascorecardd" approach to rating members ofparliamentt.
I don't make this stuff up. I just put a bunch of stuff together and tell you what it looks like. There's no secret that conservative Christians on the extreme right have been working to influence Conservative Party policy and have staged minor coups in winning some nominations.
Consider this view, for example, taken from the Canadian Christianity website's OttawaWatch:
"And there are others who are known to competently understand and articulate the evangelical mindset, particularly with respect to life and family values. They include John Reynolds, Peter MacKay, Scott Reid, Loyola Hearn and James Moore."
This is going to take some extra digging.
In the meantime, I still haven't come up with a sensible reason why the head of a fundamentalist political action group would be owning a web domain named for a Conservative member of parliament from Newfoundland and Labrador?
More to follow, for sure.
While I am starting to dig deeper into the mystery of Loyola Hearn's website, he has the one he used as a member of parliament.
Not a lick of campaign information here. Last time out, Loyola reformatted the pages on the parliamentary site so he could stuff campaign materials there, then switched back again later. El cheapo, for sure.
There's still some funny stuff, though. Like the news release headlined "Hearn introduces Private Member'Â’s Bill to help restore the Democratic Deficit".
Aside from the overdone capitalization, this means that Hearn wants to bring back the democratic deficit rather than eliminate it. Doesn't anyone in his office read English?
Hearn's motion would require that a by-election be held within 90 days of the resignation or death of a member of parliament. Maybe he should have introduced a motion requiring members of parliament to vote with the province instead of their party. Or maybe Hearn could have passed a motion that would prevent an MP from voting for a bill so he could vote against it.
Or maybe he should have tried an anti-hypocrisy motion to prevent a member of parliament from lambasting an opponent and then crying foul when the same populist e-mail storm hits his own e-mail in-basket.
There's still the mystery of the dot com site though. While I search, enjoy the sojourn over at Norm Doyle's tiny piece of cyberspace.
Norm Doyle's website is a mere blue page with a link to his e-mail address. The high-spending Doyle must be too busy to get his website up and inform voters of his views - like trying to end equal marriage.
I just can't wait to hear what else Norm wants to do.
Bring back the noose, maybe?
How about public flogging?
Take back the vote from women?
Meanwhile...
Seems that loyolahearn.com is registered to something called Canada Christian College, with the contact name on the account belonging to the college's president Dr. Charles McVety.
This is a bit wacky since there doesn't appear to be any logical reason why Charles McVety would own a website for Loyola Hearn.
McVety is the president of both Canada Christian College and the Christian Family Action Coalition. He's also involved with a number of similar political action groups like defendMarriage.
There is no indication of any direct connection between Hearn and McVety or any of the groups McVety heads. There's no sign the two even know each other.
Perhaps this site might explain it, although I still find the whole thing curious.
Seems that McVety has been cybersquatting - buying up the domains for members of parliament. Some of the sites have been activated, but for what purpose no one can say. Go to the sites named for Gerald Keddy or Don Boudria. They are almost identical.
My guess? McVety bought loyolahearn.com when hearn may have appeared to be waivering in his voting record on issues of concern to McVety. Doyle on the other hand had a perfect record and therefore wouldn't need to be pressured in cyberspace. Check Bouquets of Grey for just such ascorecardd" approach to rating members ofparliamentt.
I don't make this stuff up. I just put a bunch of stuff together and tell you what it looks like. There's no secret that conservative Christians on the extreme right have been working to influence Conservative Party policy and have staged minor coups in winning some nominations.
Consider this view, for example, taken from the Canadian Christianity website's OttawaWatch:
"And there are others who are known to competently understand and articulate the evangelical mindset, particularly with respect to life and family values. They include John Reynolds, Peter MacKay, Scott Reid, Loyola Hearn and James Moore."
This is going to take some extra digging.
In the meantime, I still haven't come up with a sensible reason why the head of a fundamentalist political action group would be owning a web domain named for a Conservative member of parliament from Newfoundland and Labrador?
More to follow, for sure.
So what's the point?
So Decima is producing polling results for Canadian Press.
What's the point if no one but Canadian Press can see the details?
Notice that in the story carried online in the Globe on Sunday, there isn't a single mention of the methodology used to collect data. It's an "online" poll, but beyond that we know exactly squat.
Geez, at least with Allan Gregg's outfit, I can tell he is just producing some numbers for his own purposes - like lumping Alberta, where the Connies are miles ahead, with Saskatchewan and Manitoba where they aren't. Then there's the absence of any numbers for British Columbia where there seems to be a race and the Atlantic provinces.
Allan once missed a major development in Atlantic Canada and blew off the error of his predictions with a shrug and a simple "Sample was too small."
What's the point if no one but Canadian Press can see the details?
Notice that in the story carried online in the Globe on Sunday, there isn't a single mention of the methodology used to collect data. It's an "online" poll, but beyond that we know exactly squat.
Geez, at least with Allan Gregg's outfit, I can tell he is just producing some numbers for his own purposes - like lumping Alberta, where the Connies are miles ahead, with Saskatchewan and Manitoba where they aren't. Then there's the absence of any numbers for British Columbia where there seems to be a race and the Atlantic provinces.
Allan once missed a major development in Atlantic Canada and blew off the error of his predictions with a shrug and a simple "Sample was too small."
04 December 2005
Speaking of lame-assed
The Conservative party candidate in the Bonavista-Exploits riding is one Aaron Hynes.
He's an ex-navy type, with a bachelor of Arts degree from an unnamed university. Since leaving the navy, Aaron has worked extensively - as a staffer for Conservative members of parliament.
Now when a party has to start tossing political staffers into the fray, they are usually running low on alternatives. There's nothing wrong with staffers as candidates, but for the most part, most of them don't aspire to holding elected office.
If Aaron genuinely wants to enter elected politics on his own, then by all means, bring it on and good luck, Aaron.
And make no mistake, Aaron has a fine background - at least the navy bit. He deserves a medal for surviving as a political staffer for any party since the late 1990s.
What's lame-assed in this instance is the website. The thing is slow to load, is way too wide for most browsers and seem to have used just about every stock Conservative Party of Canada graphic and animation.
It looks exactly like every other CPC website except this one. That's the original CPC, the Communist Party of Canada.
Meanwhile, Loyola Hearn's site is still deader than a doornail. That's his dot com site; loyolahearn.ca doesn't even exist.
Compare that to his Liberal rival, Siobhan Coady. You can get there by .COM or .CA.
or for that matter, go visit Peg Norman, the New Democrat candidate who has reportedly stopped banging her head against the wall in the wake of Jack Layton's comments that people shouldn't vote for third place candidates.
Note that Peg's site is a cookie-cutter affair as well. Programmed nationally and with virtually no detectable local content.
He's an ex-navy type, with a bachelor of Arts degree from an unnamed university. Since leaving the navy, Aaron has worked extensively - as a staffer for Conservative members of parliament.
Now when a party has to start tossing political staffers into the fray, they are usually running low on alternatives. There's nothing wrong with staffers as candidates, but for the most part, most of them don't aspire to holding elected office.
If Aaron genuinely wants to enter elected politics on his own, then by all means, bring it on and good luck, Aaron.
And make no mistake, Aaron has a fine background - at least the navy bit. He deserves a medal for surviving as a political staffer for any party since the late 1990s.
What's lame-assed in this instance is the website. The thing is slow to load, is way too wide for most browsers and seem to have used just about every stock Conservative Party of Canada graphic and animation.
It looks exactly like every other CPC website except this one. That's the original CPC, the Communist Party of Canada.
Meanwhile, Loyola Hearn's site is still deader than a doornail. That's his dot com site; loyolahearn.ca doesn't even exist.
Compare that to his Liberal rival, Siobhan Coady. You can get there by .COM or .CA.
or for that matter, go visit Peg Norman, the New Democrat candidate who has reportedly stopped banging her head against the wall in the wake of Jack Layton's comments that people shouldn't vote for third place candidates.
Note that Peg's site is a cookie-cutter affair as well. Programmed nationally and with virtually no detectable local content.
The Fabester goes federal
Courtesy of Greg Locke is a picture for the history books.It was taken on Sunday 04 December 05 in Holyrood as Fabian Manning announced his candidacy for the Conservatives in the Avalon riding.
Back to the camera is provincial finance minister Loyola "Rain Man" Sullivan, Fabe's mentor, as it were. Thankfully Fabe never picked up Rain Man's annoying tendency to cite statistics, numbers and decimals with a fetishistic fervour worthy of the most kinky accountant around.
Given the polls, Manning is likely to be out of work in the New Year, but hey, he is taking a shot.
One of the historic things about this whole change of direction for Fabe is that running for the federal Conservatives was one of the things Danny Williams cited in his heavy-handed effort to boot Fabe from the provincial Tory caucus. That's heavy handed as in having one of his political staffers sit in on the meeting - unheard of in other caucuses - to make sure the
The problem was the Premier got the wrong Manning at the time. Fabe's mistake at the time was not only challenging the Premier on his crab fishery management scheme but calling a local radio station to point out that the Premier had made a major league mistake about Fabe and his federal impulses.
Ya just don't do that to He Who Is Never Wrong.
The other historic thing about this shot is that it includes Elizabeth Marshall. She was Williams' star candidate in 2003 but fell from grace rather quickly as she had the temerity to disagree with the Premier.
Repeatedly.
She resented his making decisions within her department just because he could.
Repeatedly.
She finally got fed up and handed Danny her resignation.
He reportedly jumped for joy.
How quickly the stars fade.
Anyway, here's a picture of two former provincial Progressive Conservative stars who fell afoul of Danny Williams and paid the price for it.
One of them is looking to take up a new job.
Let's see what happens.
No contest in the TV spots
Check out the Conservatives' first TV spots - a series of three 30 sec spots built around the fake concept.
Here's Steve appearing to be interviewed by someone who is obviously not a real TV presenter. There's a screen in the background on which people who appear obviously to be actors are reading obviously scripted bits in an obviously 'I am reading a cue card or teleprompter' kinda way.
The people are referred to by first names, like "Joan", so we get the impression really quickly that these are generic Canadians. They are not real - even though there are obviously a few million real people across the country who would have been prepared to participate in some Conservative Party advertising.
Then Steve recites a bit of dialogue in a obviously stilted way. Aside from the obviously stiff approach and the obviously fake nature to the spots, the messaging is pretty heavy handed, as in crudely executed.
Then there are the first Liberals spots.
A soft approach featuring real people, with real names in real places across Canada telling you why they are voting Liberal. Since I had a small part in identifying people to participate, I can tell you they are real.
Then there's another one with a series of headlines praising Liberal policies over the past couple of years.
There's a big gap here in the quality and the execution of these TV spots on just about every level, from creative on down through the list. To be fair, the Conservative spots match their first week of campaigning in tone and message, but - and this is a big but - there is a sophisticated way to run political advertising that the Conservatives have just missed. They missed it in the flight they ran in August as well.
If the context and appearance - the look and feel - of the advertising lacks credibility, then the message will lack credibility as well.
But just so that everyone understand what the standards are for this type of advertising, try surfing through this site, The Living Room Candidate. I dare you to find a recent political television ad as lame-assed as these Conservative ones.
Here's Steve appearing to be interviewed by someone who is obviously not a real TV presenter. There's a screen in the background on which people who appear obviously to be actors are reading obviously scripted bits in an obviously 'I am reading a cue card or teleprompter' kinda way.
The people are referred to by first names, like "Joan", so we get the impression really quickly that these are generic Canadians. They are not real - even though there are obviously a few million real people across the country who would have been prepared to participate in some Conservative Party advertising.
Then Steve recites a bit of dialogue in a obviously stilted way. Aside from the obviously stiff approach and the obviously fake nature to the spots, the messaging is pretty heavy handed, as in crudely executed.
Then there are the first Liberals spots.
A soft approach featuring real people, with real names in real places across Canada telling you why they are voting Liberal. Since I had a small part in identifying people to participate, I can tell you they are real.
Then there's another one with a series of headlines praising Liberal policies over the past couple of years.
There's a big gap here in the quality and the execution of these TV spots on just about every level, from creative on down through the list. To be fair, the Conservative spots match their first week of campaigning in tone and message, but - and this is a big but - there is a sophisticated way to run political advertising that the Conservatives have just missed. They missed it in the flight they ran in August as well.
If the context and appearance - the look and feel - of the advertising lacks credibility, then the message will lack credibility as well.
But just so that everyone understand what the standards are for this type of advertising, try surfing through this site, The Living Room Candidate. I dare you to find a recent political television ad as lame-assed as these Conservative ones.
SES rolls on; PM and Harper move to Atlantic Canada
Another day, a new set of rolling polls from SES Research.
The Day 6 numbers, updated to 03 December 05, show the Liberals with 38%, the Conservatives with 29% and New Democrats at 15%. All changes are within the margin of error for the poll, but there seems to be an upward trending for Liberals and a flat line trending for Conservatives.
in the SES Leadership Index, there is also a significant change, but again, the fluctuations of the index components are within the margin of error.
Bottom line: Paul Martin still scores significantly higher than Steve Harper on the cumulative leadership scores.
The campaign shifts to Newfoundland on Monday and Tuesday. Paul Martin will address the St.John's Board of Trade on Monday. Stephen Harper is in St. John's on Tuesday, reportedly. Both leaders are obviously looking at the battleground in the three easternmost ridings in the country.
Two of the seats were held by the Conservatives after the last election but by the slimmest margin that I can recall for those seats, the ones Connie faithfuls were touting as "safe". The Liberals are looking for gains in those seats, hence the PM's visit.
Meanwhile, in the Avalon riding, former provincial member of the legislature Fabian Manning has bowed to the almost unprecedented pressure and will carry the Conservative banner. The seat was held by John Efford after the 2004 election. He'll be supported by Jim Morgan, among others. Morgan is a former provincial fisheries minister with more baggage from his past than new ideas.
Some reports have Stephen Harper in St. John's this week - most likely Tuesday. His goal will be to shore up the Avalon peninsula contests, particularly in the wake of polling that shows Newfoundlanders and Labradorians would return Liberals to Ottawa in the province's seven Commons ridings, if the vote was held today.
The Day 6 numbers, updated to 03 December 05, show the Liberals with 38%, the Conservatives with 29% and New Democrats at 15%. All changes are within the margin of error for the poll, but there seems to be an upward trending for Liberals and a flat line trending for Conservatives.
in the SES Leadership Index, there is also a significant change, but again, the fluctuations of the index components are within the margin of error.
Bottom line: Paul Martin still scores significantly higher than Steve Harper on the cumulative leadership scores.
The campaign shifts to Newfoundland on Monday and Tuesday. Paul Martin will address the St.John's Board of Trade on Monday. Stephen Harper is in St. John's on Tuesday, reportedly. Both leaders are obviously looking at the battleground in the three easternmost ridings in the country.
Two of the seats were held by the Conservatives after the last election but by the slimmest margin that I can recall for those seats, the ones Connie faithfuls were touting as "safe". The Liberals are looking for gains in those seats, hence the PM's visit.
Meanwhile, in the Avalon riding, former provincial member of the legislature Fabian Manning has bowed to the almost unprecedented pressure and will carry the Conservative banner. The seat was held by John Efford after the 2004 election. He'll be supported by Jim Morgan, among others. Morgan is a former provincial fisheries minister with more baggage from his past than new ideas.
Some reports have Stephen Harper in St. John's this week - most likely Tuesday. His goal will be to shore up the Avalon peninsula contests, particularly in the wake of polling that shows Newfoundlanders and Labradorians would return Liberals to Ottawa in the province's seven Commons ridings, if the vote was held today.
03 December 2005
The pollsters at odds
Reconcile the SES rolling polls with the latest from EKOS.
The latest SES numbers show the Libs at 36 with the Connies at 31. EKOS has the Libs at 34 and the Connies at 27.
One possible explanation is that the EKOS numbers reflect the state of play up to December 1. Then if look at last night's SES numbers - which correspond to the EKOS sampling time frame, you see that the EKOS ones are even farther out of whack or vice versa.
Maybe it's just that pesky margin of error thing. There's a more likely explanation, although the Conservative number is a teensy bit outside that range.
Then there's the issue of trending. The EKOS poll shows the Conservatives on a downward trend; SES has them moving upward, likely reflecting the first week of non-stop announcements.
In the regional numbers, and even allowing for the large margins of error involved in the national ones, all available polling shows similar pictures.
The Conservatives are ahead only in Alberta. They trail everywhere else, and in some cases, like Atlantic Canada, they are almost 20 points behind the Liberals. In Ontario, often described by lazy commentators as "vote-rich", the Conservatives a significantly behind the Liberals even at this stage and after a week of announcements that seem to have given the party a bump overall.
Flip along the EKOS poll and you'll seem some food for thought in the issues questions and in the demographic breakdowns of party support.
On page 23 of the EKOS background report you'll find a really telling number, however, and that is the stated expectation of respondents on who will win the election, irrespective of their own party preference.
Fully 64% of respondents expected the Liberals to win, compared to 18% for the Conservatives. Since April of this year, the gap between those two party expectations has continued to grow.
There is still plenty of desire for a new governing party, but that isn't reflected in any of the other positions.
For example, Paul Martin is viewed by EKOS respondents as the best person to lead the country and he is in the lead by a substantial margin everywhere except Quebec and Alberta.
Each poll offers a wealth of information. The key is to know how to read it properly.
The one thing both EKOS and SES seem to agree on is that the election is similar to the overall responses in 2004. I tend to agree with SES this evening that the race is trimming down to a two-way contest - Jack Layton's bus has developed a serious mechanical problem, with bits flying off at every turn.
The latest SES numbers show the Libs at 36 with the Connies at 31. EKOS has the Libs at 34 and the Connies at 27.
One possible explanation is that the EKOS numbers reflect the state of play up to December 1. Then if look at last night's SES numbers - which correspond to the EKOS sampling time frame, you see that the EKOS ones are even farther out of whack or vice versa.
Maybe it's just that pesky margin of error thing. There's a more likely explanation, although the Conservative number is a teensy bit outside that range.
Then there's the issue of trending. The EKOS poll shows the Conservatives on a downward trend; SES has them moving upward, likely reflecting the first week of non-stop announcements.
In the regional numbers, and even allowing for the large margins of error involved in the national ones, all available polling shows similar pictures.
The Conservatives are ahead only in Alberta. They trail everywhere else, and in some cases, like Atlantic Canada, they are almost 20 points behind the Liberals. In Ontario, often described by lazy commentators as "vote-rich", the Conservatives a significantly behind the Liberals even at this stage and after a week of announcements that seem to have given the party a bump overall.
Flip along the EKOS poll and you'll seem some food for thought in the issues questions and in the demographic breakdowns of party support.
On page 23 of the EKOS background report you'll find a really telling number, however, and that is the stated expectation of respondents on who will win the election, irrespective of their own party preference.
Fully 64% of respondents expected the Liberals to win, compared to 18% for the Conservatives. Since April of this year, the gap between those two party expectations has continued to grow.
There is still plenty of desire for a new governing party, but that isn't reflected in any of the other positions.
For example, Paul Martin is viewed by EKOS respondents as the best person to lead the country and he is in the lead by a substantial margin everywhere except Quebec and Alberta.
Each poll offers a wealth of information. The key is to know how to read it properly.
The one thing both EKOS and SES seem to agree on is that the election is similar to the overall responses in 2004. I tend to agree with SES this evening that the race is trimming down to a two-way contest - Jack Layton's bus has developed a serious mechanical problem, with bits flying off at every turn.
Byrne out?
Check the Telegram ad for Loyola Hearn when you pick up the Saturday paper today.
Missing from the photo:
Kilbride member of the House and provincial natural resources minister Ed Byrne.
The young guy touted as a likely successor to the Old Guy from Renews is conspicuous by his absence.
The absence is almost as noticeable as the dyspeptic looks on the faces of some of the provincial Tories who are now apparently supporting, among other things, the guy who wants to bring back the equal marriage debate and the guy who told Danny Williams, politely, to get stuffed, in writing when Danny asked for a reworking of the Atlantic Accord.
Missing from the photo:
Kilbride member of the House and provincial natural resources minister Ed Byrne.
The young guy touted as a likely successor to the Old Guy from Renews is conspicuous by his absence.
The absence is almost as noticeable as the dyspeptic looks on the faces of some of the provincial Tories who are now apparently supporting, among other things, the guy who wants to bring back the equal marriage debate and the guy who told Danny Williams, politely, to get stuffed, in writing when Danny asked for a reworking of the Atlantic Accord.
Star candidate of the 1980s
Loyola Hearn's website is still lost in cyberspace. We are at the end of the first week of campaigning.
Guess he's too busy down at his house in Renews or coaxing provincial members of the House of Assembly to pose for print ads to get the website back online.
Guess he's too busy down at his house in Renews or coaxing provincial members of the House of Assembly to pose for print ads to get the website back online.
Bond right about Wells
Way back in July, when Andy Wells first leaked the story that Danny Williams had put him up as a propspective chair of the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Board, the Bond Papers pointed out the guy wouldn't be getting job.
After months of speculation but other people, turns out the Bond Papers got it right.
Read the story below by Terry Roberts, at The Telegram. It is again reprinted in full, below so that an electronic version won't disappear.
Max Ruelokke is eminently qualified for the job in so many ways. He's the calibre of candidate Andy was up against and, while Andy is good for a lot of other things, in this case, the man was outclassed by every single name that has been mentioned.
Including Leslie Galway, who, oddly, Premier Wells felt didn't have the stuff to run the province's offshore regulator for more cash than she is currently making running his rump of a department.
Then in one of the most bizarre of appointment suggestsions - before Joan Cleary to run Bull Arm - the premier touted Andy Wells to run the offshore board. The goal was simple, according to Danny Williams: to get more benefits for this province from the offshore, with Andy Wells to fight for those benefits through the offshore board.
The problem with the premier's argument was equally simple: as Danny Williams himself admitted later on, the offshore board doesn't negotiate or otherwise set local benefits. Danny does.
So here we are, all the months later, on the eve of the Prime Minister's visit to St. John's and someone leaks the decision apparently reached by panel appointed to find a new chair for the offshore board.
How curious. I wonder who'll be looking for time in the PM's agenda for Monday?
Count on this issue to come up tomorrow at a forum sponsored by CBC Radio's The Current, in which the Mayor of Sin Jawn's is a panelist...
Saturday, December 3, 2005
Wells comes up dry
By Terry Roberts - The Telegram
Left - Andy Wells
It appears there won'’t be a shakeup at St. John'’s City Hall after all.
After months of speculation and controversy, The Telegram has learned that Mayor Andy Wells has been passed over for the position of chairman and chief executive officer of the federal-provincial board that regulates the province'’s offshore oil and gas industry.
In a surprising twist, a joint selection panel led by prominent businessman Harry Steele has instead offered the post to Max Ruelokke, a former deputy minister of mines and energy with the provincial government in the 1990s.
Sources say Wells, who was publicly endorsed by Premier Danny Williams for the job, has been offered the position of vice-chairman.
It'’s not clear whether he will accept the secondary role with the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board (CNLOPB), but there'’s speculation the decision may touch off another row between the federal and provincial governments.
The premier'’s spokeswoman, Elizabeth Matthews, said Williams would not be commenting while the selection process was ongoing.
But sources say Williams is fuming over the decision and may confront Prime Minister Paul Martin on the issue during his campaign visit to St. John'’s Monday.
If so, it would be reminiscent of 2004, when Williams battled Ottawa over changes to the Atlantic Accord oil revenue sharing agreement.
After months of bitter negotiations, the dispute ended with the federal government agreeing to pay $2 billion in upfront money to the province.
It'’s believed Ruelokke, who has worked in the private sector since leaving government in 1998, was a compromise between Rex Gibbons, the federal government'’s choice for the job, and Wells, who was favoured by the province.
Gibbons has a Ph.D in geology and served as a Liberal MHA for the district of St. John'’s West from 1989 to '’97.
He is a former minister of mines and energy and was once the province'’s representative on the CNLOPB.
Ruelokke, a civil engineer and Grand Bank native, ran the Marystown Shipyard and the Bull Arm fabrication site, and comes with an intimate knowledge of this province'’s oil and gas industry.
He is currently the general manager of East Coast operations for AMEC Oil and Gas Ltd., an English company that provides engineering, procurement and construction management services to offshore oil and gas projects.
Neither Wells nor Ruelokke would confirm anything when contacted Friday.
"“I have no comment,"” said Wells, who planned to resign as mayor if given the job, which pays roughly $200,000 annually.
Wells has served on city council since 1977, and was re-elected to his third term as mayor on Sept. 27.
He has often been critical of various oil companies over their level of investment in the province, and his nomination for the job is said to have been strongly opposed by those in the industry.
Ruelokke acknowledged he was interviewed for the job this week, but sounded surprised to hear he was a leading candidate when contacted by The Telegram Friday morning.
"“I assumed I was one of a number of people who had interviews and didn'’t make any assumptions beyond that, really,"” said Ruelokke, who chaired an offshore petroleum engineering task force established by the former Liberal provincial government in 1998.
The process of selecting a new chair and CEO began making headlines last July after it was revealed that Wells was the province'’s first choice for the job.
Then-natural resources minister John Efford quickly weighed in, saying Wells did not make the short list of an independent head-hunting firm that had been seeking out potential candidates.
Both sides eventually agreed to appoint a joint selection committee.
Steele, chairman of Newfoundland Capital Corp. Ltd., was joined on the committee by a pair of government appointees - — Wayne Thistle for the Government of Canada and Dean MacDonald for the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador.
Steele was the mutual choice of Thistle and MacDonald.
It'’s not known how many candidates made the short list, but several interviews took place last week.
Ruelokke said if he were given the job, politics would not play a role.
"“'I'’ve never been involved in organized politics in my life,"” he said.
troberts@thetelegram.com
After months of speculation but other people, turns out the Bond Papers got it right.
Read the story below by Terry Roberts, at The Telegram. It is again reprinted in full, below so that an electronic version won't disappear.
Max Ruelokke is eminently qualified for the job in so many ways. He's the calibre of candidate Andy was up against and, while Andy is good for a lot of other things, in this case, the man was outclassed by every single name that has been mentioned.
Including Leslie Galway, who, oddly, Premier Wells felt didn't have the stuff to run the province's offshore regulator for more cash than she is currently making running his rump of a department.
Then in one of the most bizarre of appointment suggestsions - before Joan Cleary to run Bull Arm - the premier touted Andy Wells to run the offshore board. The goal was simple, according to Danny Williams: to get more benefits for this province from the offshore, with Andy Wells to fight for those benefits through the offshore board.
The problem with the premier's argument was equally simple: as Danny Williams himself admitted later on, the offshore board doesn't negotiate or otherwise set local benefits. Danny does.
So here we are, all the months later, on the eve of the Prime Minister's visit to St. John's and someone leaks the decision apparently reached by panel appointed to find a new chair for the offshore board.
How curious. I wonder who'll be looking for time in the PM's agenda for Monday?
Count on this issue to come up tomorrow at a forum sponsored by CBC Radio's The Current, in which the Mayor of Sin Jawn's is a panelist...
Saturday, December 3, 2005Wells comes up dry
By Terry Roberts - The Telegram
Left - Andy Wells
It appears there won'’t be a shakeup at St. John'’s City Hall after all.
After months of speculation and controversy, The Telegram has learned that Mayor Andy Wells has been passed over for the position of chairman and chief executive officer of the federal-provincial board that regulates the province'’s offshore oil and gas industry.
In a surprising twist, a joint selection panel led by prominent businessman Harry Steele has instead offered the post to Max Ruelokke, a former deputy minister of mines and energy with the provincial government in the 1990s.
Sources say Wells, who was publicly endorsed by Premier Danny Williams for the job, has been offered the position of vice-chairman.
It'’s not clear whether he will accept the secondary role with the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board (CNLOPB), but there'’s speculation the decision may touch off another row between the federal and provincial governments.
The premier'’s spokeswoman, Elizabeth Matthews, said Williams would not be commenting while the selection process was ongoing.
But sources say Williams is fuming over the decision and may confront Prime Minister Paul Martin on the issue during his campaign visit to St. John'’s Monday.
If so, it would be reminiscent of 2004, when Williams battled Ottawa over changes to the Atlantic Accord oil revenue sharing agreement.
After months of bitter negotiations, the dispute ended with the federal government agreeing to pay $2 billion in upfront money to the province.
It'’s believed Ruelokke, who has worked in the private sector since leaving government in 1998, was a compromise between Rex Gibbons, the federal government'’s choice for the job, and Wells, who was favoured by the province.
Gibbons has a Ph.D in geology and served as a Liberal MHA for the district of St. John'’s West from 1989 to '’97.
He is a former minister of mines and energy and was once the province'’s representative on the CNLOPB.
Ruelokke, a civil engineer and Grand Bank native, ran the Marystown Shipyard and the Bull Arm fabrication site, and comes with an intimate knowledge of this province'’s oil and gas industry.
He is currently the general manager of East Coast operations for AMEC Oil and Gas Ltd., an English company that provides engineering, procurement and construction management services to offshore oil and gas projects.
Neither Wells nor Ruelokke would confirm anything when contacted Friday.
"“I have no comment,"” said Wells, who planned to resign as mayor if given the job, which pays roughly $200,000 annually.
Wells has served on city council since 1977, and was re-elected to his third term as mayor on Sept. 27.
He has often been critical of various oil companies over their level of investment in the province, and his nomination for the job is said to have been strongly opposed by those in the industry.
Ruelokke acknowledged he was interviewed for the job this week, but sounded surprised to hear he was a leading candidate when contacted by The Telegram Friday morning.
"“I assumed I was one of a number of people who had interviews and didn'’t make any assumptions beyond that, really,"” said Ruelokke, who chaired an offshore petroleum engineering task force established by the former Liberal provincial government in 1998.
The process of selecting a new chair and CEO began making headlines last July after it was revealed that Wells was the province'’s first choice for the job.
Then-natural resources minister John Efford quickly weighed in, saying Wells did not make the short list of an independent head-hunting firm that had been seeking out potential candidates.
Both sides eventually agreed to appoint a joint selection committee.
Steele, chairman of Newfoundland Capital Corp. Ltd., was joined on the committee by a pair of government appointees - — Wayne Thistle for the Government of Canada and Dean MacDonald for the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador.
Steele was the mutual choice of Thistle and MacDonald.
It'’s not known how many candidates made the short list, but several interviews took place last week.
Ruelokke said if he were given the job, politics would not play a role.
"“'I'’ve never been involved in organized politics in my life,"” he said.
troberts@thetelegram.com
The smell of fear
Check out the telegram today on page A5.
Bottom of the page.
Big ad by Loyola Hearn with the headline "Provincial MHA's endorse Loyola Hearn".
There's Loyola in a posed picture surrounded by all the Conservative House member's from within his riding. There's even Loyola Sullivan looking a tad like something's up his backside that shouldn't be there, and Speaker Harvey Hodder.
There's two things about this ad that scream Loyola's fear of losing:
1. Last time out, Loyola couldn't get the endorsement of any Tories. People wouldn't work for him.
Then after the whole thing was over, Loyola got into a pissing match with Danny.
2. The ad talks about "Standing up for Newfoundland and Labrador".
Here's Loyola's record on the offshore:
1985 - As cabinet minister in Peckford, voted in favour of what he would later denounce as revenue clawbacks for Equalization.
2004 - Issues householder at taxpayer expense with factual errors about deal he voted for in 1985.
2005 - Encouraged to vote for offshore deal and put province before party
2005 - Gets exceedingly pissy when people expect him to live up to the same standards he used to politically bludgeon others.
2005 - In the final votes, supports the offshore bill and then votes to bring down the government. Hearn voted for the Province before he voted against it.
When choosing between party and province, Hearn chose party.
He took Harper over Hamlyn Road.
I smell fear in St. John's South-Mount Pearl. And it's coming from the little fellow from Renews.
I wonder if this time he will be willing to debate his opponents.
Bottom of the page.
Big ad by Loyola Hearn with the headline "Provincial MHA's endorse Loyola Hearn".
There's Loyola in a posed picture surrounded by all the Conservative House member's from within his riding. There's even Loyola Sullivan looking a tad like something's up his backside that shouldn't be there, and Speaker Harvey Hodder.
There's two things about this ad that scream Loyola's fear of losing:
1. Last time out, Loyola couldn't get the endorsement of any Tories. People wouldn't work for him.
Then after the whole thing was over, Loyola got into a pissing match with Danny.
2. The ad talks about "Standing up for Newfoundland and Labrador".
Here's Loyola's record on the offshore:
1985 - As cabinet minister in Peckford, voted in favour of what he would later denounce as revenue clawbacks for Equalization.
2004 - Issues householder at taxpayer expense with factual errors about deal he voted for in 1985.
2005 - Encouraged to vote for offshore deal and put province before party
2005 - Gets exceedingly pissy when people expect him to live up to the same standards he used to politically bludgeon others.
2005 - In the final votes, supports the offshore bill and then votes to bring down the government. Hearn voted for the Province before he voted against it.
When choosing between party and province, Hearn chose party.
He took Harper over Hamlyn Road.
I smell fear in St. John's South-Mount Pearl. And it's coming from the little fellow from Renews.
I wonder if this time he will be willing to debate his opponents.
GST rebate update 2
3 down (the traditional morning cup)
19, 997 to go.
Me and my kidneys are with ya there, buddy.
It's like one of those Depression era dance marathons or some crap that you'd see on Fear Factor.
Drink 20, 000 cups of coffee and see if you can win 400 bucks.
19, 997 to go.
Me and my kidneys are with ya there, buddy.
It's like one of those Depression era dance marathons or some crap that you'd see on Fear Factor.
Drink 20, 000 cups of coffee and see if you can win 400 bucks.
02 December 2005
Layton and Hargrove at loggerheads for same space
Check this out.
Buzz Hargrove warns people to vote Liberal where the New Democrats are third, in order to stop the Connies.
Jack Layton, who scarcely 24 hours ago said the same thing in eastern Ontario, criticizes Buzz.
The noise you hear, still, is NDP candidate Peg Norman - the distant third in St.John's South-Mount Pearl, banging her head against the wall.
For the second day in a row.
In the race to see who is going to emerg first, I am guessing my kidneys are stronger than anyone's head.
Buzz Hargrove warns people to vote Liberal where the New Democrats are third, in order to stop the Connies.
Jack Layton, who scarcely 24 hours ago said the same thing in eastern Ontario, criticizes Buzz.
The noise you hear, still, is NDP candidate Peg Norman - the distant third in St.John's South-Mount Pearl, banging her head against the wall.
For the second day in a row.
In the race to see who is going to emerg first, I am guessing my kidneys are stronger than anyone's head.
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