Reconcile the SES rolling polls with the latest from EKOS.
The latest SES numbers show the Libs at 36 with the Connies at 31. EKOS has the Libs at 34 and the Connies at 27.
One possible explanation is that the EKOS numbers reflect the state of play up to December 1. Then if look at last night's SES numbers - which correspond to the EKOS sampling time frame, you see that the EKOS ones are even farther out of whack or vice versa.
Maybe it's just that pesky margin of error thing. There's a more likely explanation, although the Conservative number is a teensy bit outside that range.
Then there's the issue of trending. The EKOS poll shows the Conservatives on a downward trend; SES has them moving upward, likely reflecting the first week of non-stop announcements.
In the regional numbers, and even allowing for the large margins of error involved in the national ones, all available polling shows similar pictures.
The Conservatives are ahead only in Alberta. They trail everywhere else, and in some cases, like Atlantic Canada, they are almost 20 points behind the Liberals. In Ontario, often described by lazy commentators as "vote-rich", the Conservatives a significantly behind the Liberals even at this stage and after a week of announcements that seem to have given the party a bump overall.
Flip along the EKOS poll and you'll seem some food for thought in the issues questions and in the demographic breakdowns of party support.
On page 23 of the EKOS background report you'll find a really telling number, however, and that is the stated expectation of respondents on who will win the election, irrespective of their own party preference.
Fully 64% of respondents expected the Liberals to win, compared to 18% for the Conservatives. Since April of this year, the gap between those two party expectations has continued to grow.
There is still plenty of desire for a new governing party, but that isn't reflected in any of the other positions.
For example, Paul Martin is viewed by EKOS respondents as the best person to lead the country and he is in the lead by a substantial margin everywhere except Quebec and Alberta.
Each poll offers a wealth of information. The key is to know how to read it properly.
The one thing both EKOS and SES seem to agree on is that the election is similar to the overall responses in 2004. I tend to agree with SES this evening that the race is trimming down to a two-way contest - Jack Layton's bus has developed a serious mechanical problem, with bits flying off at every turn.
