...and I'll respect you in the morning.

Remember the three great statements people said but no one believed?

Well, add a new one to that:  the "we don't have a quorum" excuse for cancelling a meeting that every single member knew about weeks ago and committed to attend.

We know they committed to attend because the news release announcing the meeting was issued just this past Monday.

The problem seems to be on the government side.  The last meeting turned into a political fiasco  - a national political fiasco - with the three Provincial Conservatives following orders and playing the pettiest of petty politics with funding for the official opposition.

That bit of nastiness happened when the official government pollster - Corporate Research Associates  - was doing other things so maybe given that CRA is in the field as we speak, the government members don't want anything but the happiest of happy news out there to upset the polling.

We should at least we should be grateful they used the quorum nonsense.  They might have said they couldn't have a meeting because Trevor had to wash his hair that afternoon.

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Budget watch

Brent crude - the benchmark for Newfoundland and Labrador's offshore light sweet - is trading at US$53.10 at 2:30 Eastern time.

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Thanks, Roger Grimes

Vale Inco will build a smelter at Long Harbour, as the company announced in its October 16 capital expenditure report and as Bond Papers told you last week (Friday to be precise).

The new smelter will use hydromet technology and will be finished by 2011.

The provincial government issued a news release on Wednesday - now that November polling season is under way - even though the information came from Vale Inco on Friday of last week (read the news release !).

The new facility will deliver about 5,000 per years of construction employment and 450 jobs annually.

On top of that the provincial government forecasts the value of the Voisey's Bay project at $20.7 billion.

Not bad for an agreement the Premier used to say had holes in it so big you could drive a truck through them.

The announcement last month confirms that in January 2007, as reported by the Toronto Star, Vale Inco was looking to fast track Long Harbour to have it in service before 2011.

 

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15 ideas for a stronger Newfoundland and Labrador

Introduction

When Brian Peckford and Clyde Wells spoke of getting the provincial government off Equalization, they understood that such a development would merely reflect a greater strengthening of the provincial economy and society. Their policies and those of successive administrations aimed at economic development and diversification which would deliver a stronger economy that would in turn create wealth for Newfoundlanders and Labradorians.

The current state of affairs in Newfoundland and Labrador reflects more the result of those policies coupled with the unexpected good fortune of global economic conditions than it does a sustained commitment by the provincial government to implementing coherent strategies.

The following series of posts will offer 15 ideas on different areas of social, political and economic affairs aimed at strengthening Newfoundland and Labrador.

Strengthening the treasury

1.  Reduce the public debt by 50% within 10 years.  Beginning in the early 1990s, successive administrations restructured public borrowings to convert debt held in foreign currency.  As a result, the current burden on the treasury is significantly reduced and uncertainty due to currency fluctuations has been all but eliminated. 

Since 2003, the accumulated borrowings of the provincial government and its agencies has grown and the current government commitment is to increase public debt to meet any unforeseen needs. Direct debt had actually declined before 2003.

Debt servicing costs - paying only the interest on the debt - is one of the largest amounts spent by government annually.  Paying down debt frees up more money to spend on needed programs and services and improves the ability of government to meet any economic downturns without resorting to borrowing.

2.  Balance the books, every year.  Government surpluses in recent years have been built on the blind good fortune of astronomical oil prices.  Those prices are an unreliable source of cash.  On a cash basis, the provincial government has actually been in debt each year since 2005.  That means new borrowing to add to the burden of public debt.

Balancing the books is possible.  It just needs the political will to do it.

3. Limit annual spending increases to the rate of inflation.  Provincial government spending has increased by as much as seven times the annual rate of inflation in each of the last three years. That's unsustainable in the long run and with the current economic crisis, the excesses of the past three years are about to catch up to everyone.

Limiting spending to the rate of inflations allows for natural increases and commits government to eliminate unnecessary, ineffective or wasteful spending.

4.  Make non-renewable resources revenues a long term benefit by creating an investment fund, paying down debt and funding infrastructure. 

5.  Ensure that any new programs can be funded within the spending limits for annual increases and anticipated revenues.  Review existing programs annually to ensure they meet objectives and are run as efficiently and effectively as possible. 

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Actions speak louder than words

St. John's deputy mayor Ron Ellsworth is showing that talk is cheap.

In his case, that would be his own talk about greater openness in the city's budget process and his most recent campaign promise to get the city back to basics.

Ellsworth is a relative newbie to politics having been elected first in 2005 as a ward councilor, but so far his public comments have been more like a veteran of the uncommunication school.  Take, for example, his comment on postponement of a curbside recycling program - about as basic as it gets these days  - due to an apparent lack of cash:

"We have to make tough decisions on tough issues, and this is one example of that happening," Ellsworth said in an interview.

"I'm not very happy about what we've had to decide to do, but the reality is that we do have limitations and when we have budget constraints like this, the first thing we look at is new programs."

Ah yes.  Tough decisions.  On Friday when this story broke, he was pushing the "opportunity" offered by this delay. Now it's the tough decisions.

Then he played the empathy card, followed by the admonition to speak out:

"I understand the frustration and concern by those that are very close to environmental issues. ... They should make their voices known."

He understands the frustration  - but with what he is not clear - but that, quite obviously,  won't change his mind since these are tough decisions that have already been made. 

And speaking out is all fine but sadly, Ellsworth - as chair of the city finance committee - has been way less than forthcoming with any concrete information about the city's finances. Oh yes, and the tough decision has already been made, in case you missed that.

Ellsworth gave absolute no information to CBC Radio on Friday morning past, even when the interviewer gifted him with a chance.  He fell back on the "opportunities" crap.  Then there were figures coming from somewhere about a seven million dollar shortfall and one million to implement the program.  This evenings' news referred to three million for implementation.

It almost goes without saying that the numbers don't add up.

Ellsworth spent some time taking calls from residents on Monday on a CBC call-in show.  They weren't happy. There's nothing for them to be happy about, especially considering that one of Ellsworth's lines has been that the public expect council to manage public money wisely.

Sure they do.

But what Ellsworth is missing is that voters in St. John's are increasingly unsatisfied with politicians who pay only lip service to ideas like openness and focusing on the basics.  They expect action.

To voters, managing money wisely would not mean boosting the subsidy to something that isn't a core city service - i.e. Mile One - over the past two years by the amount Ellsworth has said the recycling program needs in start-up cash. Bond Papers readers will recall that these subsidies have been unpopular around these parts. To voters, basics would include recycling.

To voters openness means giving basic information and it goes along with the inclusiveness of asking voters for their views before making a decision about how to spend their money. They know Ellsworth's track record on openness isn't a good one.

While it would be tempting to just throw up ones hands in frustration, or to dismiss Ellsworth as a lost cause, he still has an opportunity to bring his words and his actions into line.

First, he can put the city's financial information in public.  He has that ability as deputy mayor.  He can give the public a real chance to review the city's plans and voice their concerns.  If need be, council can reverse it's recycling decision. 

After all, if the city's habit of overspending is as bad as Ellsworth claims, there simply won't be cash in two years to implement this basic recycling program. And if he has really been the voice of reason and fiscal responsibility then the voters will back him against his supposedly free-spending colleagues.

Second, city council needs to bring in the auditor general to review the books.  He may well uncover some little secrets that need to be aired out if the city's finances are to be put on the right track. An audit by the province's financial watchdog will at the very least give everyone a common basis for discussion.

Now if none of that happens, Ellsworth and his colleagues run the risk that come next fall, voters won't be pleased.   They'll be in a mood to throw the bums out, as the saying goes.

Ellsworth and his colleagues can change now or they can let the voters make the change next fall.

Actions do speak louder than words, and voters are judging Ellsworth and his colleagues by their actions.

As he heard to day, they've been measured and found sorely wanting.

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The hope and generosity of our soul

There's a fine line between an homage and a blatant rip-off of an idea.

In this case, a video produced by local advertising company Bristol is  pretty much a giant rip of a recent video by Will.I.Am based on a speech by Barack Obama.

The rip-off in this case goes beyond merely aping the style of the Obama video.  It twists and distorts the fundamentally uplifting qualities of the Will.I.Am and Obama originals in a way that would be funny were the issues it raises not so serious.

Recall that Yes, we can! used an Obama speech, set to music and repeated by a host of musicians and actors.  The Obama speech is as fine an example of public oratory as anyone on the planet has seen in a generation.  It is delivered in characteristic Obama style and it's message is fundamentally one designed to bring people together in a united effort to bring about fundamental change in their country and in the world.

Listen to the words:  Yes we can to prosperity and opportunity.  Yes we can heal this nation.

By stark contrast, the recent speech by Danny Williams is one his vintage speeches of personal pride and division.  The province and its people are a backdrop.  The video reflects that, of course, by using Williams extensively.  The only other people in the video are - as with the woman inserted in a still picture - in the background.

Even the Obama title itself  - Yes, we can - is a positive, inclusive reinforcement of the defining feature of the Obama campaign:  a movement of unity. Yes we have cannot be heard without understanding that, as the news stories of recent days conveys, others do not.

The Bristol rip-off starts, as with the Williams speech, with a toast, a celebration of triumph.  It includes right behind it a clear sign that this is a triumph over others:  who in their wildest dreams would have believed, we are told, that we would be "as good or better off than any other province."  We know what we are fighting for, we hear yet again as if there is a renewed call to arms to be found in having the provincial government go off Equalization.

Of course, this is not the first time a stirring speech born of the politics of hope and unity has been twisted to serve the politics of division.  In his acceptance speech at the 2001 Provincial Conservative convention, Danny Williams turned John Kennedy's clarion call to public service into something entirely self-interested:

John F. Kennedy said: "Ask not what your country can do for you but what you can do for your country."

I say to Newfoundlanders and Labradorians: "Ask not what we can do for our country, because we have done enough. Let's ask our country what they can do for us."

In Newfoundland and Labrador, the ignoble politics of division rears its misshapen, misbegotten head once more.

Our country requires more than ever a renewal of hope among all Canadians for a future built on shared values and shared purpose.  Our province and its people need the assurance that "have" status is built on the wealth and prosperity of the people who live and work here, not on the blind luck of high oil prices.

We do not need more of the anger that has characterized the past seven years of public rhetoric. No one needs to hear, even by implication, of the value of fighting.

Barack Obama's recent victory shows the power of hope and unity, of the unmistakable power of a style of politics which calls upon the very best qualities of the human spirit.

McCain and the Republicans tried what has become the international conservative stock and trade:  fear and division. 

Whatever led Bristol and its associates to produce this video, it should stand as an example of how much the relentless messages of strife have weakened the foundation on which our society is built.

We must wait, evidently, for an awakening within individual Newfoundlanders and Labradorians that what we need to have is a rekindling of the optimism, the abundance of hope and the compassion in our souls that we had, not so very long ago, and in far darker economic times than the one we now face.

Only with those values in our hearts will have not truly be no more.

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The Lord's Prayer

An unconventional armistice day post.

Update: Spike Milligan was arguably one of the most influential comedians of the 20th century. An accomplished musician, Milligan served during the Second World War as a gunner in a field artillery regiment of the British Army.

He served through North Africa, Sicily and Italy before succumbing to combat stress. Milligan was diagnosed later in life as having bipolar disorder.

Milligan was a relentless social and political commentator throughout his post-war life. He worked to make the world a better place, a fact not realized even by members of his own family until some of his letters were discovered after his death.

In this video, Milligan merely takes a stock British Army character or style, namely the sergeant major and imagines the Lord's Prayer as delivered in the verbal style of one of these parade square demi-gods. It may be an in joke but for those familiar with the senior non-commissioned officer of not so long agao, the effect is worth at least a giggle if not a few hearty guffaws.

Armistice Day is a time for sorrowful reflection. However, we would be remiss if we did not recall that the men and women who served were human. Milligan's life should remind us all of their humanity and ours.

World Bank warns of impact on poor

Robert Zoellick, head of the World Bank, is warning that the global credit crisis threatens to become a human crisis.

One of the most likely affected will be remittance workers, people from underdeveloped regions and countries who work in more affluent places and ship large portions of their wages home to support families.

Closer to home remittance workers and migrant labourers working in Alberta and elsewhere in Canada - largely responsible for the recent economic boon of regions like Stephenville and the Great Northern Peninsula -  may soon have less money to send back or may be heading home looking for work where work simply doesn't exist.

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In the wake of Iceland's fall

From the New York Times, a story on the impact Iceland's economy collapse has had on ordinary Icelanders:

In Kopavogur, a suburb of Reykjavik, Ms. Runolfsdottir, the recently fired secretary, said she had worried for some time that Iceland would collapse under the weight of inflated expectations.

“If you drive through Reykjavik, you see all these new houses, and I’ve been thinking for the longest time, ‘Where are we going to get people to live in all these homes?’” she said.

The real estate firm that used to employ Ms. Runolfsdottir built about 800 houses two years ago, she said; only 40 percent have been sold.

By Icelandic law, Ms. Runolfsdottir and other fired employees have three months before they have to leave their jobs. At the end of that period, she will start drawing unemployment benefits.

Meanwhile, her husband’s modest investment in several now-failed Icelandic banks is worthless. “They were encouraging us to buy shares in their firms until the last minute,” she said.

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Long Harbour a go!

As much as Danny Williams and his team tried to bad mouth the Voisey's Bay deal, it will deliver just as it has been delivering millions into the public treasury.

He said there were holes in the deal to drive a truck through. 

Well, the only trucks associated with the deal trucks have been loaded with bags of cash for the Premier to spend.

Vale Inco's 2009 capital expenditure commitments contain the news that, as expected, the company will build a new refinery at Long Harbour:

Pursuant to an agreement with the Government of the Province of Newfoundland and Labrador, we will build a commercial nickel processing facility in Newfoundland and Labrador to produce 50,000 metric tons of finished nickel per year, together with up to 5,000 metric tons of copper and 2,500 metric tons of cobalt, utilizing the ore from the Ovoid mine in our Voisey Bay mining site. The decision about the technology to be employed in this project will be made at the end of this year. The investment is subject to Board approval. [Emphasis added]

No word yet on when the truck will arrive to make the announcement.

Don't be surprised if it happens in November poll goosing season with a joint company/provincial government announcement to boot.

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First, we assume a smelter...

that might possibly lead to making stuff to make cans that we can assume a can-opener to use on.

Take a deep breath.

We are now in a world where we are not starting a project by assuming a can-opener.
And really we are not even assuming a can.

Nope.

Now Memorial University economist Wade Locke is going beyond his prediction that the provincial government may post a surplus greater than predicted last spring to say he thinks there'll be a major economic development announcement for Labrador shortly.

Now we are fantasising about a plant to make to stuff to make the cans out of.

Speculation centres on an aluminum smelter and Locke's cheshire cat grin in an interview with CBC sure fueled the idea that some company - possibly Vale Inco - will be making the announcement related to the Lower Churchill.

Take another deep breath and let's look at what we know - as opposed to what is pure speculation.

1. The provincial budget will very likely be in deficit on a cash basis and if things financial keep going south, the $544 million surplus forecast on some other basis would also be tough - if not impossible - to achieve. Let's see how close Locke comes on that prediction before we accept the megaproject one.

2. The only Newfoundland and Labrador project - the ONLY project - in Vale's 2009 capex announcement in mid October was the Long Harbour smelter. There's no mention at all of an aluminum project or anything else vaguely like it for Canada.

3. To make it even more unlikely there's a real smelter project in the works from Vale, the company's capex commitment gives Vale's strategic view:

Vale’s strategy for the aluminum business is focused on the organic growth of upstream assets, through the development of its high quality bauxite reserves and the very efficient low-cost alumina operations.
As recently announced, we will build a new alumina refinery, Companhia de Alumina do Pará (CAP), and expand our Paragominas bauxite mine (Paragomias III), both located in the Brazilian state of Pará.

CAP will be responsible for the implementation and operation of an alumina refinery, located in Barcarena, close to the alumina refinery of our subsidiary Alunorte. CAP will be 80% owned by Vale, and 20% by Hydro Aluminium. [Emphasis added]

The initial production capacity of the refinery will be 1.86 Mtpy of alumina, through two lines of 930,000 tpy each. The new refinery has potential for future capacity expansions up to 7.4 Mtpy.

4. How do you spell massive subsidy? Aluminum smelters need huge amounts of cheap power. Lower Churchill power would not be cheap unless the provincial government agreed to sell the power over the long term at or below production costs.

Quebec uses its considerable generating capacity for power from plants that are already paid off to help subsidize aluminum enterprises in that province.

Critics point out that it would far more beneficial to export the cheap power for profit than subsidize aluminum plants.

It's not like the trend has been to build aluminum plants as far from possible as markets.

5. Even if by some chance a project is announced, it's construction would be tied to the Lower Churchill which itself remains a dodgy proposition. Lack of confirmed long-term sales contracts and the current economic downturn have put that project further in doubt.

6. Even if we are talking about an announcement, it would be for a project that, in the most optimistic scenario wouldn't be built and operating until closer to 2020 than not.

7. It's the November poll goosing season. Put that together with Locke's actual comment quoted by CBC and you have the sort of overblown hype coming from insiders that we've usually seen about the Lower Churchill project since 2003:

"There are significant projects being considered, energy intensive ones for the province that will make the earlier start of the project more viable and it will act more like a loan guarantee for the Lower Churchill that will allow them easier access to capital," he said.

Projects are being considered.

That doesn't mean they are confirmed.

The rest of the comment likely reflects the view inside the Premier's Office on what sorts of financial daisy-chains are necessary to keep the $9.0 billion project alive, at least in the minds of its proponents.

Of course, that doesn't mean that even the Lower Churchill is as likely as Locke claims.

After all, it's not like the Premier has refrained from hyping a dead dog before when it suited his purposes.

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Amen to that

Telegram editor Russell Wangersky points out in his column this week that local political campaigns suffer from an obvious lack of new ideas.

It’s been so formulaic that there have even been candidates lamenting the state of the media for failing to do riding profiles of each of the federal ridings.

The only thing more lacklustre than the recent campaigns would be a panel of local reporters discussing the campaign.  Gee, maybe they'll talk about things they knew but didn't tell their audiences, just like they did last time.

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GFW mill faces uncertain future

Union members at AbitibiBowater's Grand Falls Windsor paper mill rejected a company restructuring plan.

The company is looking at ways of reducing costs at the mill, built in 1905.

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Friday Math

1.  Brent crude is trading at $58.67 per barrel.

2.  The Canadian dollar is worth $1.18 against the American dollar.

It's easier to plan a party and pump out happy face uncommunication than provide an update on the provincial government's finances.

Polling season is just a bonus excuse.

Obviously.

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Canary in the oil sands

In tough economic times, migrant labourers are a clue to how bad things are getting.

They are a clue.

Like a canary in the coal mine or in this case, the oil sands.

When those canaries flock back home, that fact is usually not presented as a triumph.

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Uncommunication

Public relations involves communicating with people to gain and maintain support.

Communicating:  the activity of conveying information.

Information: a collection of facts or data or knowledge about specific events or news.

Seems pretty easy both to understand and to do, but apparently not.

Take this sound bite, for example, from a news conference to answer reporters' questions about the dismissal of the lab director at the Health Sciences Complex in St. John's:

"I implore you, this decision today was made about the future, not about the past."

Now lest you think this is a case of selective editing, I'd suggest you follow the link to the TransCon story on the news conference.  Notice how little of it is taken from information - that is hard facts - told by the people sitting at the head of the boardroom table.

Most of it, like most of the news stories on this firing, draws attention to other issues, like evidence at the Cameron Inquiry about the improper and possibly illegal disposal of Crown assets.  A piece of important laboratory equipment was handed over to a private individual apparently free of charge.  This individual refurbished it and sold it for a tidy profit.  What's more, the computer that went with the machine included patient data - it could be as much as every test ever run on the thing - which the Inquiry managed to retrieve.

There may well be other aspects to this that aren't in the public domain, but with just what is already out there, it isn't hard for people to put two and two together and conclude Gulliver's sudden departure is connected to events that came to light at the Cameron Inquiry.

What you have in this case could be called uncommunication. 

Think of it as the opposite of communication because uncommunication doesn't involve the conveying of facts, data or knowledge. 

Quite the opposite.  It's not about conveying information at all.  Uncommunication actually leaves the recipient in worse shape - at least with respect to facts, data and knowledge - than if he or she knew nothing at all.

Take another government example of uncommunication: the workplace health and safety commission's computer security failure.  You don't have to look hard to see an effort to avoid providing information - facts, data and knowledge - to anyone.  There are plenty of words strung together as sentences but, as with the Eastern Health comment above, they are for the most part devoid of any clear meaning.

Or consider the lighter version, namely the tendency of cabinet ministers to repeat cliches and verbal ticks so frequently they get turned around in them.  Like, this line from the Premier's scrum on Monday:

...it’s so important for our children, for our youth, to realize that this is a historic day, this is a turning point for them, in their lives, on a go-forward basis.

Yes, even the future is coming on a go forward basis.  Perhaps we will move forward on a go forward basis into that future.  The Premier's Maserati has three gear positions:  Go forward on a go forward basis, go backward on a go forward basis and park on a go forward basis.  He likely bought it after doing the due diligence piece, another of his cliches that every cabinet minister recites.

His language is so riddled with verbal ticks and meaningless phrases, it is difficult sometimes to understand if he understands what he is saying. 

Let's not forget his "don't quote me on that" bit from the same scrum:

we’re just very proud and honoured and very pleased that in fact right now we can go it alone and excuse me, don’t quote me on that we can go it on our own, from that perspective.

If there is a difference between "we can go it alone" and "we can go it on our own" then it is one only in the Premier's mind. If there is some importance to that phrase then that too remains only in the Premier's mind. We are going it alone on the Lower Churchill supposedly, but are looking for financial backing, financial partners and a loan guarantee from Ottawa.

The phrase means nothing.

This phenomenon is not confined to government circles. 

Take, for example, the case of NLRC, the proposed refinery near Come By Chance.  At the heart of the company's recent legal travails appears to be uncommunication;  that is, according to a statement of claim the company failed to disclose that key financial backers had withdrawn. That issue hasn't be clarified such that a news report on Thursday stated that the company was fine until law suits started.

However, that may not be true.  The company may have appeared to be fine.  But if the statement of claim proves true, that was only an appearance. Company statements, including the memo obtained by CBC discuss generalities without conveying meaningful information.  If the statement of claim is true, there may even have been withholding of information - in other words: uncommunication.

The trend is not universal.

Rutter Technologies announced on Thursday it had won yet another contract to build components for the light armoured vehicle family currently in service in both the Canadian and United States armies.  The news release contains all the relevant information you need to know why this is important plus there are a couple of obligatory feel-good statements from key people involved.

Summary:  $14.6 million from General Dynamics Land Systems to build electrical systems for the Stryker vehicle over the next 19 months that will increase the Stryker's current carrying capacity.  The components will be built by Rutter in St. John's at its facility on Thorburn Road.  Rutter will hire an unspecified number of additional people and add another shift at its plant.

Lay that release side by side with one announcing yet another half million dollars of public money in a manufacturing company and you'll see the uncommunication of the government release. The feel-good statements far outweigh the factual stuff, a hall-mark of uncommunication.

As Rutter demonstrates, the trend to uncommunication is not universal.

There is still hope...

on a go-forward basis.

Arrrrrggggghhh.

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Double Denouement

1.  A creditors' meeting today will determine if NLRC will finally fold, putting an end to the refinery project near Come By Chance.

Relations between NLRC and its largest unpaid creditor, though, have been strained.

BAE Newplan Group, a subsidiary of Montreal-based engineering giant SNC-Lavalin, has filed a statement of claim against NLRC in Newfoundland Supreme Court, alleging that NLRC had been deceptive while describing its financial health.

Until earlier this year, when financing for the project fell through, the NLRC proposal was moving ahead a steady pace. It had gained solid community backing, as well as crucial approval through the environmental assessment process.

That last paragraph could use the words "appeared to be" instead of "was".  Several crucial details weren't in the public domain until BAE-Newplan filed suit.

Has anyone determined if the three major European investors are still involved in the project or did they bail sometime in 2007 as some reported earlier?

2. AbitibiBowater posted a big third quarter loss, CBC News reported on Thursday.

The union at the company's operation in Grand Falls-Windsor has until Friday to decide on a restructuring proposal for the mill or face closure.

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Pip off for the polls!

Apparently, the provincial government is organizing some sort of province-wide celebration of not getting Equalization.

1. What are the odds CRA will be in the field when the party takes place? [Hint: They poll in November and release the results in the first week of December]

2. Surely the Premier, his finance minister and their political staff could better spend their time filling the people of the in on the actual state of provincial government finances what with the current international situation than planning a party.

Funny hat and noisemaker update:

"We do plan to mark this momentous occasion," said Elizabeth Matthews, spokesman for Premier Danny Williams. The plans are still in the preliminary stages, but Ms. Matthews says a major celebration will be held.

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The Premier's scrum, de-spun

Following are some observations on comments made during the Premier's scrum on Monday.

1. Two sets of books? In the Monday scrum, the Premier clearly indicates the provincial finance department prepared Equalization estimates of as much as $18 million.   The Estimates for Fiscal Year 2008, the projection for Equalization payments are $2.7 million.  This is the second year in a row where numbers contained in the spring budget varied wildly from numbers released mid way through the fiscal year.

For example, last year's fiscal update claimed that oil royalties would be $562 million more than projected and would  hit $1.6 billion.  The budget estimate was for $966.5 million, a difference of $633.5 million.

The fiscal update claimed mineral royalties would be $120 million above estimate to reach a total of $347 million.  In fact, the budget estimates held mineral royalties at $270 million.

It is extremely difficult to keep an accurate picture of provincial finances when these sorts of discrepancies occur.  This isn't a matter of comparing accrual versus modified cash accounting.  This is a case of ministers giving different sets of numbers at different times.

2.  "fund up pensions".  The Premier listed funding public sector pensions as one thing he was surprised at being able to do.  His comments suggested the unfunded pension liability has been dealt with.  According to Dominion Bond Rating Service, there is still about $2.0 billion in unfunded pension liabilities.  Here's how DBRS put it:

(3) Unfunded pension liabilities remain sizeable, projected at just over $2 billion in 2007-08. The Province has made considerable efforts to reduce these liabilities, largely as a result of the 2005 Atlantic Accord and other special contributions to help improve the funding position of both the teachers’ and public servants’ pension plans. However, declining interest rates and the recent deterioration in equity markets are likely to further add to unfunded liabilities. [Emphasis added]

3.  Danny's Accord dies exactly as he knew it would.  A reporter asked about the renewal of the Atlantic Accord.  Williams answered that the Accord was a separate payment made under a different department than finance and that it would continue.

Either he was confused in the rush or he didn't want to admit the truth, but the Accord the reporter meant was Williams' Accord signed in 2005.  His question didn't deal with the obvious point, namely that under the provisions of the deal, being off Equalization in 2009 means the deal dies.

Period.

Meanwhile, the real Atlantic Accord's (1985) offset provisions continue until 2011/2012.

The difference between the two is even more stark.  The 1985 deal puts real cash into the treasury every year.  The 2005 thing hasn't produced a penny of real cash since the fat advance payment cheque in 2005.

4.  "money back into the pot".  At one point the Premier refers to the province putting money back into the pot, as in the Equalization pot. 

Not exactly.

Equalization comes from the federal government's general revenues, that is from things like taxes.  No provincial government pays into a pot and in fact there is no pot in the first place.

5. "Don't quote me on that."  labradore picked up on a curious little portion of the scrum where the Premier says:

we’re just very proud and honoured and very pleased that in fact, right now, we can go it alone, and mumble mumble — excuse me, don’t quote me on that, we can go it on our own, from that perspective.

The "mumble mumble" from the labradore transcript is very plain in the video at CBC.  The Premier says "Don't quote me on that" meaning don't quote that I said "we can go it alone." 

The Premier's been backing off, or appearing to back off, his usual pseudo-separatist rhetoric lately.  There's plenty of phrases about the great country in the NewSpeak these days, for example.  Even his old habitual verbal tick of calling the country "the federation"  - as if to emphasize it is not a country but a loose association of quasi-independent fiefdoms - has all but vanished. 

The timing in rhetorical shift is coincidental with the end of the last federal election and the global financial crisis.  It's also a rather curious shift in language since there doesn't appear to be any obvious reason for it.  Maybe there is polling showing the separatist schtick doesn't play well.  

Whatever the cause it is yet another example of the contradictory public policies and public statements.  We've seen the same thing recently on the economy and government finance.  One minute things are fine, the next minute there's going to be stringency. Some times there are two contradictory messages within the same scrum or interview.

After hammering away at Confederation since 2001,Williams' sudden praise for the country seems about as consistent as Ryan Cleary trying to portray himself during the last days of the federal election campaign as the potential saviour of Confederation.

6.  The O'Brien Option.  A reporter asked whether the provincial government decided whether to stay with the old  Equalization or picked the O'Brien formula with a cap.  The Premier said no decision had been made and one did not need to be made until next March.  He mentioned last year when the finance minister announced an election decision - which he said wasn't actually a final decision - only to switch to another option later on.

If the provincial government doesn't qualify for Equalization in the current fiscal year, what difference does it make which option it picks?

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More public cash for private business

Dynamic Air Shelters, a manufacturer located in Grand Bank is poised to get more public money.

That would be on top of public money - $180,000 -  in early 2008.

And that was on top of public money - $250,000 worth - in 2007.

Update:  And that's in addition to almost $500,000 from ACOA in 2006.

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