Old Harry: Gulf prospect bigger than Hibernia

Old Harry is an oil and natural gas deposit in the Gulf of St. Lawrence that could be twice the size of Hibernia. As it is the current estimated size is about the same as the current proven, probable and possible oil at Hibernia.
The field is back in the news because one of the companies involved – Corridor Resources – is planning to do some exploration work on the portion of the field that is within the Newfoundland Offshore Area. Corridor has licenses for the field from Quebec and Newfoundland and Labrador.
There are two major problems.  Firstly, the border in the Gulf has not been defined clearly enough in that area.  Secondly, and more importantly, nothing is likely to happen on the Quebec side of the border unless and until Quebec City and Ottawa resolve a royalty/jurisdiction dispute.
The Quebec government is looking for a deal:

"This represents a good opportunity and lot of money for Quebec, especially at a time where we are trying to limit our dependence on oil imports," said Natural Resources Minister Nathalie Normandeau. "We want to settle this issue for good. Quebec has been very patient and we're taking a firmer line today. We've been waiting for 12 years and now we want to reach a deal."

And there’s a unanimous resolution in the Assemblee Nationale to back it up.
All things considered, oil and gas development in Newfoundland and Labrador is likely to shift to the western portion of the province sooner rather than later. 

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h/t to labradore.

Seals!

Near Port aux Choix on the Great Northern Peninsula.

The pictures turned up in ye olde in-box on Thursday evening.

Okay, so it’s more like very near Port aux Choix.

Ice conditions at sea are obviously so bad, the animals are whelping on whatever patch of ice they can find, even if it is well up the beach (and across a road). From pictures circulating in the mainstream media, there is no ice at sea in some areas where it would normally be choked off with the white stuff.

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Good one there, Wente

Margaret Wente argues that bloggers are mostly male and demonstrates in the process that her argument [as to why that is so] is wrong.

[Sarah and I believe the urge to blog is closely related to the sex-linked compulsion known as male answer syndrome. MAS is the reason why guys shoot up their hands first in math class. MAS also explains why men are so quick to have opinions on subjects they know little or nothing about.]

Clearly, basing your column on an inherently fragile, sexist stereotype demonstrates that blogs aren’t the only place for instant, ill-founded opinions.  Moreover,  the time it takes to produce a column versus a blog post doesn’t -  in and of itself  - improve the quality of the thought behind the column.

Not many women are interested enough in spitting out an opinion on current events every 20 minutes.

Maybe not, Peg, but apparently at least one is interested in taking longer to get to the same place.

But don’t worry, plenty of bloggers wind up generating exactly this kind of writing:  an argument that defeats itself.

At least Peg doesn’t have to write her own sock puppet comments.

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[] denotes additions to clarify the point for people who don’t go off and read Wente’s column.

Wente Sorted Updated:  Apparently the considerable number of women who write blogs decided Peg was full of shit, too and decided to tell her in so many far more elegant words [original links from the Globe version are live]:

"When influential women are ignorant to the numerous women's voices on the Internet, when the voices of many women are dismissed as endearing, cute and girly, and when the voices of those women who are most oppressed are ignored altogether, that gender gap is perpetuated. Thank you, Margaret, for proving your own point about how hard it is to change the conversation."

Changing the conversation is very hard to do.

So the Globe has decided to have an online chat between Peg and women bloggers.  Get the popcorn.  This should be funny.

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Never let it be said: House of Assembly version

Never let it be said that your humble e-scribbler didn’t help out the governing party as it struggles to figure things out a mere seven years into its time in office.

Tuesday’s post on on the opening of the House of Assembly noted that there was a major bit of business missing from the news release issued at 11:00 AM, namely proroguing, or officially closing, the old session.

Poof.

At 4:20 PM on Wednesday – odd time for something supposedly routine, dontchathink? -  yet a second media advisory emerges giving “details” of the proceedings on March 22. Turns out the House will meet at 10:00 to prorogue the old session.  Then His Honour will show up at 2:00 PM to deliver the speech from the throne.

24 hours and 20 minutes after the BP post points out the missing bits, basic information that ought to have been known and released in the first place miraculously appears.

Shades of the ABC website.

Ya gotta wonder sometimes. 

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Births and Deaths

With a tip of the bowler to David Campbell, here’s a table showing the ratio of live births to deaths, by province, for the selected years, courtesy of of the good folks at the Dominion statistics bureau, currently d.b.a. Statistics Canada.

Province	1999-2000	2007-2008
NL	1.20	0.94
PE	1.29	1.18
NS	1.22	1.00
NB	1.26	1.11
QC	1.40	1.53
ON	1.62	1.54
MB	1.48	1.48
SK	1.40	1.36
AB	2.22	2.32
BC	1.50	1.38

Campbell explains the figures this way:  for every death that occurred in a province in the given year, there was the number of births shown in the table. So in Alberta, for example, for every death, there were more than two births.

Most provinces have been stable.

In Atlantic Canada the figures have been going down and in Newfoundland and Labrador the decline was the worst of all. We don’t have enough babies to replace our deaths on a one for one basis.

The reason is simple:  young people of child-bearing age leave for somewhere else. This has not changed at all, despite the claims that the number of live births the past couple of years has gone up. People are still croaking at at least the same rough rate. And once the economy everywhere else settles down and starts to grow the normal patterns will resume.  The folks who have come home to seek shelter during the storm will venture out once more to foreign lands, to return  - if at all – once they have retired.

There are a couple of observations on this.  First, it is a reminder that the demographic issue is still with us and needs to be addressed.

Second, as far as the number of workers goes, this is not really much of an issue. if there was economic activity here, people would be staying.  And if they didn’t stay others would come here to replace them.

But that isn’t happening.

This is where you notice the general lack of growth locally and recall the number of projects that were supposed to happen but that died.

And then you realise the number of times cabinet ministers talked about slowing down development or – in the case of Hebron – letting work go because we could never do it all here anyway. 

Sure we could;  as in Alberta, we’d open the doors to people willing to come and do the work.  But that didn’t happen.

Just think about that for a second.

We actually had people talking about foregoing development or slowing the pace of development in order to avoid something. That “something” wasn’t overheating the economy or crime, housing crises or anything of the sort.

Nope.

There must have been some other reason why people thought letting opportunity slip by would be a good idea.

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Court docket now online

Word-for-word, the release issued by Provincial Court:

Effective March 3, 2010, the Provincial Court of Newfoundland and Labrador began providing improved public access and greater transparency by posting its daily Adult Criminal Docket online. The dockets are found online at http://www.court.nl.ca/provincial/adult/dockets.htm

The public and media now have the capability to go online and access, at their convenience, the daily Adult Criminal Docket for any Provincial Court location in the Province.

By providing this service the Court eliminates the need for the public, and particularly the media, on a daily basis to call or visit a court centre in order to confirm that a particular matter is scheduled for the following day. This access not only benefits the public and media, but improves the efficiency of the court by reducing phone calls and visits to the Court Registries.

The Small Claims Docket will also be available online in a few short weeks. As regards Youth and Family cases, there is specific legislation that prohibits the information contained in these dockets from being published.

Chief Judge Mark Pike said, “I am pleased that our Court Services Director has taken this innovative step to improve the efficiency of the Court’s daily operation and to make it more convenient for the thousands of people who have contact with us every year”.

Prominent St. John’s criminal lawyer, Randolph J. Piercey Q.C. stated “For many years lawyers, witnesses and those accused of crimes were required to crowd around a printed listing of the schedule posted outside the court door every morning. This was cumbersome and confusing. By having the docket posted and accessible online, all parties can confirm their schedules in advance.”

Pamela Goulding QC, Director of Public Prosecutions said “All too frequently, people went to the wrong courtroom or were mistaken about when their case was scheduled to proceed. Those who work in the courts such as police officers, lawyers and media personnel upon whom the public relies for information about what’s happening in our courts every day, were especially affected. Now, anyone with internet access can check the docket at their convenience. This will make it a lot easier for everyone. It just makes sense”.

The Provincial Court of Newfoundland and Labrador is the first Provincial Court in Canada to offer online daily Adult Criminal Dockets. The open court principle can be significantly enhanced through the appropriate use of existing information technologies.

“Innovative step”?

Just goes to show how far things have to come where something as patently obvious as posting a docket online is innovative.  Still it’s a good first step.

Of course, this isn’t the first court in the province to do this.  Trials Division of the Supreme Court has had its docket online for the better part of a year or more.

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Williams to continue unsustainable spending

In his first public statement since coming back to the province after heart surgery, Premier Danny Williams confirmed the provincial government will continue spending public money at a level his finance minister has described as unsustainable.

According to Williams, a balanced budget is no longer a target for his administration.

Williams said it was important to keep “momentum” going in the province. 

Take-away:

1. We are in a pre-election - if not a pre-leadership -  period in which any sound fiscal management goes out the window.
2. Williams correctly identifies provincial government spending as the source of economic activity on the northeast Avalon.  As BP readers know, oil hasn’t been driving things in the metro area, contrary to public belief.

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Big show; big deal

Okay so it’s not like anyone doubted the outcome but take a look at the turnout.

Out of 10,189 eligible voters, only 33% of them showed up to vote.

The newly elected member of the House of Assembly got the approval of a mere 27% of the electorate in the district.

Forget the tiny opposition party votes.  They were never expected to do anything anyway. 

But look at the Tory numbers and think about it:

A party that is supposedly worshipped by the entire province – except for a couple of skeets and ne’er do wells – could only motivate 27% of voters in a riding to cast their ballot.

That’s it.

2,737 out of 10,189.

That’s about half (55%) of the vote Beth Marshall pulled in 2007.  And even that was with a smaller number of eligible voters and in one of the historically worst turn-outs (60%) for a post-Confederation general election.

This one was even worse than that and in a situation where there was virtually no opposition campaign and the Tories could pile on the cash and the bodies as they always do for these shows.

Of course, none of that will be discussed during the inevitable – and entirely routine – post-game show on Wednesday.

But while the rest of the world just drones on, take a minute and just think about everything that’s happened since last September.  Then add this rather dismal performance.

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House to open two weeks late

Surprisingly this didn’t get announced yesterday – on a government holiday – along with the news Hisself had returned to work.

The House of Assembly will open with a Throne speech next Monday, March 22.  That’s two weeks late.

If past speeches are any guide, this one will be a truly mind-numbingly hideous piece of verbal diarrhoea.

No mention of what happened to the old session which was adjourned before Christmas but not ended.  Normally the House would meet and conclude the old session.  Maybe the word normally used for that – prorogue – is not in fashion among Conservatives any more.

Anyway, the finance minister will deliver a new budget a week after that, Monday March 29.

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Loonie on the way up

The Canadian dollar is at a level it hasn’t hit since just before the giant meltdown of the economy in the middle of 2008.

And this is supposedly a good thing.

How exactly is unclear since the United States economy is still in the crapper and the Canadian economy is still full of government cash.

Productivity is up, for sure, and that’s good.  But…

While the recent pickup in productivity is welcome, “the question of sustainability still remains front as centre as firms continue to increase hours worked along with overall employment,” said Bank of Nova Scotia economists.

That’s really the warning that has to go with any Pollyanna projections:  we can’t be absolutely sure this is real.

Sales of manufactured products was down 11% in this province in January from December.  But the January 2010 numbers were about the same as the numbers in January 2009.  And that’s the opposite of what was happening nationally.

Oil production is still running about 17% below last year.  January production was about 8.7 million barrels compared to 10.5 million barrels in January 2009. That’s consistent with what you’ve been seeing reported in this corner since last fall.

 

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Quiet: Genius at Work

Those people who worked diligently to smash FPI into tiny bits can see how much their handiwork is benefitting people who don’t live in Newfoundland and Labrador:

Around the world, he could see two models of integrated seafood companies that were able to grow: They focused on being very efficient at primary production, or they specialized in value-added processing, sales and marketing.

High Liner took the second tack and Mr. Demone eventually got out of the fishing fleet business, which had been his company's, and his family's, historical foundation.

The company got another boost recently by picking up assets in the selloff of FPI Ltd., a troubled seafood company based in St. John's. That brought a strong food service business in the United States, as well as production capacity in Newfoundland and Labrador. Recent results reflect the first synergies from that purchase, Mr. Demone says.

Meanwhile in Newfoundland and Labrador, the geniuses who brought you the original fiasco are still at work offering the same old solutions to the same old problems.

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Related:

• “The FPI-competitor myth…”

Satisfaction with Williams gov drops 13 points

What’s the difference between approval and satisfaction?

Well, quite a lot according to Newfoundlanders and Labradorians surveyed during February by two polling firms.

A Corporate Research Associates poll conducted between February 9 and February 25 showed public satisfaction with the Danny Williams administration at a record 93% percent.

But a new survey by Angus Reid conducted during the same time period (February 16 to 23) showed that only 80% of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians approved of Danny Williams’ performance as Premier.

The Angus Reid poll has a lower margin of error at 3.9% 19 times out of 20 compared with CRA’s 4.9%. in addition to a news release, Angus Reid also released a description of the polling methodology and details on the poll itself.  CRA does not release that information.

What this really shows, though, is the gigantic discrepancy between CRA and other pollsters in their results.  The problem with CRA polls is highlighted by the difference in results between AR and CRA for Nova Scotia.  The Angus Reid poll also highlights a huge discrepancy between the AR poll and CRA’s results on a similar question in Nova Scotia. 

According to CRA:

Satisfaction with the NDP government declined even more significantly, with one-half of residents satisfied with the overall performance of the government (49%, down from 63% three months ago).

But according Angus Reid, the Nova Scotia government led by New Democrat Darrell Dexter has only 23% approval down from 49% in November 2009.

Bond papers has contended for some time that CRA polls are wildly inaccurate measures of public opinion.

 

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Firds of a bleather: uncommunication edition

What government departments or agencies in Newfoundland and Labrador have a policy like the one at Environment Canada forbidding interviews unless they’ve been cleared by the strategic uncommunications folks first?

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Danny is still in Florida

Nowhere in the official news release is there any mention that Danny Williams is back in Newfoundland and Labrador.

CBC didn’t report that he was back in the province either, merely that he was back at work.

Ditto the Telegram and Voice Of the Cabinet Minister.

And if you listen all the way to the end of an interview with health minister Jerome Kennedy from the Morning Show on Monday you can get pretty much the same idea. Kennedy acknowledges that Williams has been recovering and “will be back to work shortly.”  He quickly corrects himself to say Williams has already returned to work.

In fact, given that Monday was a provincial government holiday, a news release saying that Williams is back at work looks highly suspicious.  The timing of the release suggests it was triggered by Kennedy’s comments on the Morning Show.

But that doesn’t mean he is actually in the province. 

Williams has been working – apparently – throughout most of his recuperation period. It’s highly unlikely that a man described by his own deputy as a workaholic could actually do anything but try and run the province from his sick bed in Florida.

There’s no word on when Williams will actually return to the province.

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Great Minds Update:  As WJM notes, Hisself has been doing official work things before the news release announcing he is on the job once more.  That pretty much clinches the conclusion that the “news” today was more a reaction to Jerome!’s comment than any actual change in Hisself’s health status.

What-no-facebook-status? Update:  Turns out Hisself is actually back and the release was cover for his campaign foray into Topsail district.  Still, he could just have easily issued the release in February when he went to Vancouver – what was that, a lark? - and said he’d be working from the Southern premier’s office in Sarasota until the snow final disappeared.

Elements of Style: Notebook…and pen

Keep your Blackberry.

Thanks for the Palm, but no thanks.

Ditto the iPhone, iPod and even the iPad when it arrives.  They have their uses, sure enough.

For some purposes, only a notebook will do.

Not a computer, mind you.

A notebook.

A book in which one writes notes.

There is the Moleskine - left, on the bottom - or a version by Piccadilly, left, on the top that is far less expensive and every bit as good.

Black cover, elastic to keep it closed, a few hundred pages of blank paper, either ruled or plain, to suit the purpose. 

Something durable enough to carry around the corner or around the world.

And to write in the notebook, there is nothing that compares to a fountain pen.

A Mont Blanc, if you are so inclined, in this case a Meisterstuck 146.  

Writing need not be without its pleasures.

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Oveur and Out

Actor Peter Graves, whose career ranged from Stalag 17 to Airplane!, died of an apparent heart attack on the week.  Graves was age 83.

Graves was perhaps best known as the spymaster in the 1960s television series Mission: Impossible. 

Known for his serious roles, Graves lampooned them all successfully in Airplane!, a send-up of airplane disaster movies.  Graves played Victor Oveur, the pilot of a doomed airliner.

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Inherent weakness: a public sector-driven recovery

Newfoundland and Labrador showed weak job growth in February with an increase of a mere two tenths of one percent compared to January 2010 and 1.5% compared to February 2009.

Nationally, the job growth in February was driven almost entirely by the public sector.

That matches rather nicely with the experience in Newfoundland and Labrador where private sector job creation has been trailing off for a couple of years. As usual you can find great details on this at labradore: One, Two, Three, Four, Five, Six.

Here’s a chart – h/t  labradore – that should help you get a clear picture of what has been going on.

Three things to take away from this:

1.  What you just saw is absolutely, categorically NOT what you are hearing from the mainstream media, political circles and people in the local business community.  But it is real. The happy-crappy-talk coming from places like the Board of Trade demonstrates the extent to which the Board has its head up its collective backside or can’t understand simple numbers.

2.  The corollary to the private sector jobs-slide is that the jobs growth that has taken place – akin to the boom on the northeast Avalon – has been fuelled almost entirely by the public sector.  Since public sector spending is – as regular SRBP readers have known for years – unsustainable the whole thing is built on very shaky foundations.

It can’t last.

Therefore…

3.  Stand by for some serious adjustments.  The reckoning may not come in the next few months but it will have to come.

Of course, you will hear nothing but happy-crappy-talk from politicians who are looking to get re-elected in two years.  The pre-election campaign has already started.  What’s more, in a worst case scenario, some of those politicians may be looking to become Premier in a Tory leadership fight before then. Either way, there’s little hope that any political party in the province will be able to come to grips with the real economic issues and start taking action to set the right course for the future.

To steal the words of the Lucides:

Those who deny there is any danger are blinded by the climate of prosperity that has prevailed in … recent years. … That’s the peculiarity of the current situation: the danger does not appear imminent but rather as a long slow decline. At first glance, there doesn’t seem to be any risk. But once it begins, the downward slide will be inexorable.

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Saint-Saens – Symphony No. 3

Sunday morning listening pleasure:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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2001 Moonbus in April from Moebius

You know you’ve been waiting for this.

Coming next month.

From Moebius.

For those of us who have the original Aurora release, this is still something pretty special.

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The Zen of media intimidation

If a story goes unreported, did it actually happen?

In Mexico, as in post-communist Russia, pesky reporters sometimes turn up dead pour encourager les autres.

In other parts of the world, you don’t have to shoot people to stop things from being reported.

There are other ways.

And some of the the reporters will even deny that the lesser forms of intimidation even happened.

But that doesn’t mean there isn’t intimidation nor does it mean stories  - sometimes really big and important stories - don’t get reported.

But if they don’t get reported, did they actually happen?

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