Government Talking Points: the oil will never reach shore edition #oilspill

Danny Williams, speaking in the House of Assembly in May 2010, as reported by CBC:

"As recently as this morning, we've looked at just exactly what the situations are in the North Atlantic," Williams said.

"It is a general understanding that because the offshore sites are significantly offshore and well east of the province that ... there's a lower likelihood that oil would actually come ashore in Newfoundland and Labrador."

From the Wall Street Journal, June 2010:

BP PLC and other big oil companies based their plans for responding to a big oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico on U.S. government projections that gave very low odds of oil hitting shore, even in the case of a spill much larger than the current one.

Natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale, in the House of Assembly, June 2010, as quoted by the Telegram:

  Mr. Speaker, based on 40 to 50 years of wind study, it is shown that oil, because of the wave action and the coldness of the sea, Mr. Speaker, breaks up and disperses. ... Mr. Speaker, we had an oil spill in 2004 on the Terra Nova. Mr. Speaker, that oil dispersed, broke up, and went away. Ocean floor studies have been done, Mr. Speaker, there is no evidence of oil from that oil spill on the floor around our Terra Nova project.

The WSJ, again:

The government models, which oil companies are required to use but have not been updated since 2004, assumed that most of the oil would rapidly evaporate or get broken up by waves or weather.

 

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China and CSIS: the naive and sentimental writers

Richard Fadden, head of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service said something a few days ago that did not go down well with many people.

In an interview taped on Monday past with Peter Mansbridge, Fadden said:

“We're in fact a bit worried in a couple of provinces that we have an indication that there's some political figures who have developed quite an attachment to foreign countries."

In the days since CBC broadcast the interview, Fadden issued a public apology in which he retracted his statement that CSIS was discussing with the Privy Council Office how best to deal with the provincial government’s involved.

Some commentators have made a big deal out of the fact Fadden made the comments this week, in advance of the G8/G20 meetings.  Others have taken the apology as a sign that Fadden has been reckless and that he may well be  - or ought to be - replaced very soon.

Two things:

1.  In the context of the week’s events, an apology and retraction would be absolutely necessary if only to save the Prime Minister’s face with foreign leaders.  But no one should take that official retraction for anything other than that.  Canada plays in the big leagues and Fadden is too experienced a public servant to make comments that are as off-the-wall as the apology might suggest. 

Fadden’s comments may alarm the uninformed  - and there are evidently plenty of those out there - but for anyone even passingly familiar with CSIS publicly available intelligence assessments there is no surprise in anything Fadden said. China has long been mounting a campaign of economic and political espionage around the globe.  The country’s aggressive moves into the energy sector is well known.  The two things together suggest a need for wariness, if not increased vigilance.

Incidentally, you can include in the ill-informed list none other than Brian Mulroney’s former chief of staff, Norman Spector. The facts are at cbc.ca.

2.  Around these parts, no one should be surprised either at the Chinese presence  or the potential naiveté of some provincial administrations. 

In 2004, the Williams administration signed a memorandum of understanding for the potential development of the Lower Churchill. 

The company – Sino-Energy – was a consortium of companies that included a state-owned Chinese corporation that has been involved in questionable arms shipments.  The memorandum of understanding gave Sino-Energy complete access to NALCOR information, including details of the interconnection between Churchill Falls and the rest of the North American energy grid.

Bond Papers discussed the MOU issue - including the national security implications – in a 2005 post. No one has followed up on the story since Jeff Ducharme started it. 

The Williams administration might not be on CSIS’ watch list  - they might; China might not be the only foreign country of concern either - but that doesn’t mean they been known to make some amateurish shag-ups when it comes to signing secret deals like that memorandum of understanding with questionable foreign companies.

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Public money in inflatable shelter company now hits $4 million in four years

With a dose of $249,978 research money from the provincial government’s research and development corporation, Dynamic Air Shelters has now received about $4.0 million in public cash since 2006.

The federal government dropped $300,000 on the company on Monday.

That was on top of nearly $3.5 million the company had received between 2006 and earlier this week.  Most the cash has come within the past 18 months.

Here’s how the official news release described the most recent cash infusion:

Dynamic Air Shelters Limited is a world leader in inflatable blast shelters. Dynamic has the lead in this market and must maintain it by demonstrating constant improvement and validating the improvement through rigorous and controlled testing. The goal of this R&D project is to prove the performance of a production-model prototype of a fully upgraded blast shelter system that includes components and assemblies not yet tested. Expanding the blast resistant market and repelling competition is the most critically important feature of this product development. The RDC’s investment is $249,978 of a total project cost in excess of $1 million.

Dynamic Air Shelters received the largest single batch of funding in the most recent announcement.

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Rowe book due this fall. Why?

Danny Williams’ former personal envoy to Hy’s tossed out a few bon mots to those listening to the province’s Open Line show on a sunny Wednesday.

Someone else picked up on the rest of the chat but your humble e-scribbler chuckled at this bit:

There were a number of excerpts from the work in progress  that are now being compiled into a full length book.

Rowe thought he had something from his short stint in Ottawa that was worth putting to paper. It was a short time (six months), if memory serves, but Rowe apparently had great insights to offer.

So great were the insights that he quit his stint as a columnist at the Telegram to write the book.   Rowe claimed that writing a column every week for the largest circulation daily in the province would hinder his writing ability. Your humble e-scribbler had a great larf at that idea back when Rowe forecast his magnum opus was in the works.

So weighty were the burdens of a weekly column that Rowe took to writing a weekly column for the Spindy which would become the book. And of course, collectors of great local literature will recall Billy once edited a collection of his old Telegram columns together into a book as well.  Column-writing does indeed interfere with book-writing.

Don’t worry, folks.  This makes no more sense now that it did when Bill first penned his good-bye in the Telly.

And, as you may have noticed, those Indy columns were the works in progress now being compiled into a full-length book, not unlike the 1980s vintage compilation which also wound up in a full-length book. 

Just go with this for a second.

A full-length book would be in contrast to a half-length book or a three-quarter length one. 

Just take a book off the nearest bookshelf and see how many pages it is.  Now randomly pick another one – any book, any shelf – and preferably not from the same series or encyclopaedia.  Note that the number of pages is different from one to the other.  Pick another.  Same thing?

That’s because “book” is not a standard unit of measure.  There can be no full-length book since, by definition, every book is “book” length.

Yes, folks, Bill is a fountain of these sorts of idiotic remarks.

But anyway…

By now, those of you who haven’t clicked off to the old post from Bill’s last column at the Telly might be wondering how long this book  - covering a mere six months of time, don’t forget – has taken to cobble together.

Rowe started the Ottawa gig in 2004 and quit in the winter of 2005. Bill’s last column for the Telegram was in October 2007.  Presumably he was writing it then or had pulled together some bits and pieces to start work.

If this book appears in the fall of 2010, then we are talking six years from the time he started the gig, five and a half years or so from the time he quit the job and three years from the time he quit the Telly.

Even if we allow Billy boy finished bashing out the manuscript in late 2009, we are still talking two full years to document his recollections of events that took no more than six months to experience in real time.

And that’s allowing that he had three or four of the episodes published in the old Spindy.

So what’s so special about this fall for a book covering events that are already rapidly receding into the mists of time?

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Government of Newfoundland and Labrador Hiring Test (Communications Director)

The provincial government is looking for a few new communications directors.

Standards are high.  Not everyone can do the job.

The public service commission is under such pressure to find enough people to meet the stringent criteria set down by the Premier’s Office that they’ve had to simplify the qualifying exam.

Gone is the intensive two stage examine, including a written test, before the list was passed to the Eighth for selection.

According to the latest internal e-mail circulated last week – and obtained by your humble e-scribbler – public service commission examiners are to place two objects in front of the candidate.  They are not allowed to say anything. They must merely observe what the candidate does.

See if you can figure out how to pass the test.

Object 1:

Object 2:

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The Fragile Economy confirmed

BMO Capital Markets lays out the scope of the problem:

Newfoundland & Labrador [sic] saw a sharp 10.2% real GDP contraction in 2009, the worst performance in Canada. However, improvement in the mining sector and a reversal of some temporary factors will drive 4% growth in 2010 and solid 2.8% growth in 2011.

Problem? sez you, wiping the purple freshie from your lips. 

Growth returns. 

Here’s the problem:

However, the biggest economic driver in the province in the next two years will be construction activity. Government infrastructure spending will total about $1 bln in FY2010/11, helping boost total
capital spending an expected 23% in 2010. Provincial government infrastructure spending will amount to more than $5 bln over the next several years, keeping the economic fuel burning into 2011. At more than 3% of GDP, the Province’s infrastructure program is among
the largest in Canada relative to the size of the economy.

It is definitely not good when the public sector is driving the economy to such a degree.

And as for all the rosiness in BMO’s outlook. 

Well, let’s just say they obviously haven’t done any detailed analysis of the local economy especially if they think the recent population growth is driven by anything other than migrant labourers returning home from other parts of the country.

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The language of Shakespeare

On the one hand, you have the regular performances of Julius Caesar at Cupids, site of the of early 17th century English colony.

There is a tide in the affairs of men
Which taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries.

And on the other hand, you would scarcely recognise the language of Shakespeare some four centuries on, as it is spoken in the House of Assembly:

Staff members at the school say that the faces of the children light up as they eagerly access the food items each morning.

Yes, that’s what we all long to do with food:  access it.

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Brazil to expand oil production

From UPI:

RIO DE JANEIRO, June 22 (UPI) -- Brazil will spend $224 billion in five years on doubling its capacity for oil production and export despite cautious business optimism on the future global outlook for crude prices.

State-run Petrobras oil giant unveiled the spending plans as Chief Executive Officer Sergio Gabrielli set out the company's strategy to build capacity in the run-up to 2020, when Brazil will have doubled its production to 5.4 million barrels a day from 2.7 million barrels a day at present.

[more]

Anti-Rubinesque Update:  Peak oil, Schmeak Oil:

But crude oil itself has already peaked – at least five times since 1950, Prof. Boyce says – without beginning to approach the demise of oil anticipated by peak oil theory’s famous Bell curve. Indeed, crude oil reserves have doubled roughly every 15 years since 1850 and the world now has more proven reserves than it has ever had in the ensuing 150 years.

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A Crown corporation by any other name

A company that has received almost $3.5 million in federal and provincial government money since 2006 is getting another $300,000 from the federal government to support its production.

Dynamic Air Shelters will receive another $300,000 for “research, and development, engineering and marketing initiatives.”

That’s in addition to the $575,000 the company has received over the past two years for research from the federal government.

Since 2008, the company has received more that $2.0 million in federal and provincial government money to support its business operations.

A Crown corporation by any other name would not  be sucking so much public money.

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Today in history

June 22, 1990.

The Meech Lake Accord died.

In Manitoba, Elijah Harper refused to give the consent needed to bring the Accord to the floor of the legislature for debate.

In Newfoundland and Labrador, and after a last-minute effort at further manipulation by the Mulroney administration in Ottawa, Clyde Wells spoke at length in the House of Assembly before adjourning debate on the Accord.

Some predicted the country would fall apart.

It didn’t.

The finger pointing continues to this day, as Deborah Coyne concluded her memoir of the affair: Roll of the dice.  Brian Mulroney’s 2007 memoir is full of vitriol and a unhealthy dose of misrepresentation about the Accord debate.

Jean-Francois Lisee used exactly the same sort of fabrications as Mulroney to begin his blog series on the 20th anniversary of the Accord’s demise. Then again, the premise of the Accord was a fabrication, a falsehood, a blatant lie so it’s really not all that surprisingly that some of its proponents still rely on falsehood to argue for their case.

Meanwhile, in another corner of the universe, Gil Remillard, Quebec’s intergovernmental affairs minister at the time thinks:

<<L'entente du lac Meech aura servi à préparer le terrain et 20 ans après, on se rend compte que maintenant, nous faisons beaucoup de choses comme on voulait que ça soit fait lorsqu'on a discuté de Meech.>>

For the most part, though, only a few people in the country have even noticed the anniversary slip by.

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Gulf #oilspill economic impact not what it seems

Crude is currently trading eight percent below where it was the day the BP rig in the Gulf of Mexico blew up.

CBC quotes a TD economist as saying that:

“It probably won't have a huge impact [on global oil production]. Deepwater drilling accounts for about seven per cent of global output right now.”

But the same online piece notes that Gulf of Mexico production accounts for 30% of American domestic output.

Now if there should happen to be a complete moratorium on new drilling and exploration in deep water as a result of the BP disaster, that could have interesting repercussions.  All those rigs currently being used in the southern US will be available for renewed exploration efforts in other parts of the world.  Like say offshore Brazil or offshore Newfoundland.

And hey, notice that the CBC article refers to tougher regulation.  That doesn’t mean something like a ban;  it just means Americans will start applying the same sorts of regulation that other countries take for granted and where exploration and production is going on as always.

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Weekly Traffic Drivers, June 14-18

1. Sun News?  Ya gotta be kidding
2. Telling quotes:  Lower Churchill version 
3. Eventually the other guys will lose (Newfoundland and Labrador political culture)
4. Roger Fitzgerald’s bias (The Speaker of the House of Assembly is biased)
5. NB Connies argue over pork
6. We thought *you* had jobs for *us* – Russian version
7. Opportunity for comment – Hebron project
8. The Le Petomane School of Government (House of Assembly legislative agenda)
9. One for Chuck (Takogo kak Putin)
10. The World of the Psychic Economic Forecaster (crude oil price forecasts)

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Weather is here…Russian junket version

1. What a total waste of time!  What politician,  any time in the history of human civilization ever went on a lovely trip to a foreign land entirely at taxpayers’ expense and came back proclaiming that the junket was anything but “productive”?

2.  The St. Petersburg economic forum was about attracting investment to Russia.  Is the Lower Churchill underwater line now going to run to Murmansk, he asked facetiously?

3. Dear Ladies and Gentlemen of Facebook… As for anyone being invited, the SPIEF organizers extended the exclusive invitation to everyone on Facebook.  Find any mention of Canada – let alone Newfoundland and Labrador – on the official Twitter feed for SPIEF.

4.  The event ends tomorrow.  Wasn’t the release announcing the glorious events of the trip a wee bit premature?  Don’t anybody mention quotas of happy news.

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International Can Opening: Gold hits new record

Gold is up again  - a record US$1,248 an ounce - based on economic problems in Europe and the United States.

Oh yeah.

Bring on the recovery baby.

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The World of the Psychic Economic Forecaster

On the one hand Jeff Rubin is in St. John’s telling audience that oil will be back in triple digit pricing within six months and will stay there. It’s a line from his book, basically.

The recovery presumably is underway and is solid.

On the other hand, in another part of the globe someone notices that a key index of shipping tonnage is currently at about 2,784 compared to 11,793 points  - a record high – that it hit just before oil prices hung in the triple digits for a short period in 2008.

Followed of course by a massive collapse.

Jeff says oil prices caused the collapse.

Okay.

Sure.

And that runny nose you have?

It caused your cold.

Chest pains?

Caused your heart attack.

Jeff’s forecast and the indicators don’t quite seem to fit together, do they?

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Opportunity for comment – Hebron project

From the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board:

“The public is invited to comment on the draft Comprehensive Study Report (CSR) for the Hebron Development Project being proposed by ExxonMobil Canada Properties on behalf of the Hebron Project Proponents: Chevron Canada Limited, Petro-Canada Hebron Partnership, Statoil Canada Ltd., and Nalcor Energy – Oil and Gas Inc.

The Hebron Project will include activities associated with installation, drilling and production, maintenance, and decommissioning of a concrete gravity-based structure (GBS) at the Hebron field, northeast Grand Banks. The Hebron Project will involve construction activities at two locations, the Hebron field and the Bull Arm marine facilities in Bull Arm, Trinity Bay. Construction activities are scheduled to commence in 2012, with petroleum production to begin in 2016 or 2017.

Before any petroleum-related activity can be undertaken in the Newfoundland & Labrador Offshore Area, a detailed and location-specific Environmental Assessment (EA) must be submitted to the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board (C-NLOPB). In addition, this project is subject to the federal environmental assessment process pursuant to the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act. The CEA Act requirements indicate this environmental assessment must be reviewed using the comprehensive study process as the project involves the proposed construction or installation of a facility for the production of oil or gas, if the facility is located offshore.

Pursuant to Section 21(1) of the CEA Act, the C-NLOPB, on behalf of the responsible authorities for the federal environmental assessment of the project (C-NLOPB, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Transport Canada, Environment Canada and Industry Canada), is inviting the public to comment on the proposed draft CSR. The draft CSR was completed pursuant to the CEA Act and the Scoping Document prepared by the C-NLOPB and the other responsible authorities.

The Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency will provide an opportunity for public comment on the final CSR at a later date.

Comments must be received by the C-NLOPB no later than Wednesday August 11, 2010. Interested persons may submit their comments in the official language of their choice to information@cnlopb.nl.ca or to the following address:”

Public Comments – Hebron Development Project

Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board

5^th Floor, TD Place

140 Water St., St. John’s, NL

A1C 6H6

(709) 778-1400

NB Connies argue over pork

New Brunswick Conservative member of parliament Greg Thompson – who isn’t planning on running for re-election – says that Conservative cabinet minister Keith Ashfield is sitting on pork announcements for New Brunswick in an effort to influence the provincial election in September.

Canwest is reporting:

"(Ashfield) stated very clearly, with his own lips to me, 'We're not going to be carrying the province on our backs to the next election.' And, of course, I took exception to that and I'm just wondering who he's attempting to punish," said Thompson, who says he is not running in the next federal election.

Thompson said he suspects Ashfield is defending his chief of staff Fred Nott, who suggested in an e-mail to hold off on approving funding in Thompson's riding until after Sept. 27, the date of the provincial election.

Hmmm.

A fight within the Conservative party?

A family feud as it were.

Sounds vaguely familiar.

Come to think of it, New Brunswick provincial Conservative leader David Alward might want to be careful about having what UNB political scientist David Desserud called “some of that Danny Williams magic” rub off.  Desserud made the comment after Alward took a taxpayer funded partisan campaign hop across to see the Old Man recently. 

Alward might well have been thinking how nice it would be to get the rumoured version of the Danny Williams effect.  But truth be told, the the real Danny Williams Effect can be a bit more like something you pick up on a planet in Star Trek: The Original Series.  You know:  the stuff that makes your hands all itchy and then Sulu comes at you with an epee right before some whack-job belts out another chorus of ‘I’ll take you home again Kathleen.”

Maybe poor Dave got the actual Danny political mojo instead of what he hoped for.

And then: poof!

Instant family feud.

Ouch.

That has got to hurt.

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We thought *you* had jobs for *us* - Russian version

The St. Petersburg International Economic Forum is about encouraging foreigners to invest in Russian development.

The focus of this year's forum will be Russia's modernization, which is captured in its slogan, "Laying the foundation for the future." There will be a special emphasis on making deals with energy and high-tech companies, as well as large financial corporations, Presidential Aide Arkady Dvorkovich said during a news briefing at RIA Novosti on June 15.

So why exactly is a Canadian politician desperately looking for investment in his own province headed all the way to the former Russian capital for a conference about expanding the Russian economy?

Good question, especially considering he is just another one of the thousands headed there as attendees.

Not a keynote speaker.

Not an organizer.

Just another nametag in the room.

The plan is to sign more agreements and memoranda with foreign partners at this year's forum than ever before, Mr. Dvorkovich said.

"We expect that you won't be able to count the signed investment agreements on even two hands," he said, adding that European investors plan to announce a "significant expansion" of investment in Russia.

Something says someone got confused about which St. Petersburg the forum was in.

This one isn’t conveniently close to home.

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Related:

• Takogo, kak Danny
• Takogo, kak Hickey

Sun News? Ya gotta be kidding

Think of it this way:

Less news.

More boobs.

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The Le Petomane School of Government

“Work, work, work”

 

Among the bills passed or on track to be passed in the current sitting of the House of Assembly:

• Making illegal what is already illegal: Changes to the Highway Traffic Act to make it illegal to send text messages while driving a car.  The Act currently prohibits the use of cellular telephones while driving.  Cell phones are the device people use to send text messages. 
• And then exempting people from the cell phone ban:  The list of exemptions under the new version of the Act is as impressive as it is vague in places.  It includes police, fire and other emergency responders, people texting or calling someone about something that is allowed under regulations and a whole undefined class of people – like maybe politicians? - specifically allowed to talk on cellular telephones and do other similar things while driving that ordinary folks are barred from doing.
• The Court Security Act 2010.  Repeats word for word the Court Security Act (passed in 2004 but never enacted) and includes two minor amendments that could have been done by amending the existing Act.
• The Architects Act 2008, amendment bill:  makes minor amendments to an Act passed in 2008 but not yet in force. See?
• Three separate bills  that change the Insurance Companies Act:  they could have been one bill or a complete revision of the old Act. Here’s the first amendment bill. 
• A bill to postpone the date for a report on salaries and benefits for provincial court judges.
• Two separate amendments to the Income Tax Act that could have been done in one bill.

It’s like government by a bunch of people who learned everything they know from some online university in the States, like say the William J. Le Petomane School of Government, run by Dean Hedley Lamarr.

 

 

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