18 June 2010

The World of the Psychic Economic Forecaster

On the one hand Jeff Rubin is in St. John’s telling audience that oil will be back in triple digit pricing within six months and will stay there. It’s a line from his book, basically.

The recovery presumably is underway and is solid.

On the other hand, in another part of the globe someone notices that a key index of shipping tonnage is currently at about 2,784 compared to 11,793 points  - a record high – that it hit just before oil prices hung in the triple digits for a short period in 2008.

Followed of course by a massive collapse.

Jeff says oil prices caused the collapse.



And that runny nose you have?

It caused your cold.

Chest pains?

Caused your heart attack.

Jeff’s forecast and the indicators don’t quite seem to fit together, do they?