Contrasts

There is the series on NTV’s evening news this week featuring Yvonne Jones. The Liberal Party leader is fighting breast cancer. She allowed NTV to follow her through part of that experience.

This is not something most of us would do, under any circumstances.  Jones did, however,  and in the act of openness has given people a chance to see an aspect of her that is quite different from the clips on the evening news or the sterile quote in the paper.

The segment on Wednesday night featured a group of women, some of them breast cancer survivors themselves.  They came to support Jones as she shaved her head before starting chemotherapy. Even if you did not know any of the women, you could not help but be moved to the brink of tears.

There was a prayer chain made up of sheets of paper containing messages for Yvonne.

Jones held up a blanket knit by a group of women at a church and told about it and where it came from.

There was a picture of her cheerleaders.

Here was a woman taking the first step along a very difficult journey.  Difficult is not even the right word for it.  Truth be told, unless you have faced such a thing as cancer, it’s hard to know what word is right.

Other words come to mind, though, from watching the segment. Red faces.  Cracking voices. Trepidation.  Hugs.  Prayers. Fear.  But at the same time compassion, optimism, and laughter that seemed to make all those other things  - if not disappear  - then seem not quite so enormous.

An experience that can only be singularly personal transformed in all its dimensions through camaraderie.

Some people lead by saying: “Follow me!”

Others say: “let us go this way together.”

Life is full of contrasts.

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Insider baseball

What is interesting to people on the inside is often of no interest to people outside.

That idea, in a great many more eloquent words and with a bunch of other ideas, may be found in this 1988 article by Joan Didion.

Some people will get this.

Most will not.

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No House sitting until December

The House of Assembly won’t be sitting until December and, as a result, it likely won’t sit much more than a dozen days.

No word on why the House is being delayed so long. 

Maybe the Premier’s Office is a wee bit preoccupied replacing all the carpets chewed up since last week.

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Best Political Blog in Canada! Right here!

The votes are in.

The tally is done.

And Sir Robert Bond Papers is the Best Political Blog in Canada for 2010!

Thanks to all those who clicked their fingers to the point of osteo to make this possible.

Imagine what could have happened if the Premier’s Own Clicking Team decided to get behind this blog and vote their little hearts out as they do over at VO massaging Question of the Day results.

All jokes to one side, this is something that will proudly go on the masthead.  In the five and a half years or so since BP started, there are times when it has been an effort to keep going.  What does keep one typing away is know that there is an audience out there  - consistently bigger than some local independent newspapers enjoy or enjoyed - that finds something of value in these e-scribbles. This award reflects their continued support and interest and for that, they have one humble e-scribbler’s eternal gratitude.

Now it’s back to the daily job of ensuring SRBP is deserving of that recognition.

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Lower Churchill: what Danny actually said (with translation)

From the text of Danny Williams’ speech to the provincial Conservative convention:

And of course, also looming large on the horizon right now is the development of the Lower Churchill project.

Right now, we are in discussions with Emera Energy and the folks in Nova Scotia who are anxious to be our partners as we move forward.

Imagine how exciting a day it would be if we could see that power avoid Quebec altogether and use the power ourselves or send it our neighbours in the Maritime Provinces and New England states. And it could happen my friends - just wait and see!

[BP:  How nice of Danny to tell you how other people are feeling.  He’s done this before and it turned out to be complete nonsense.  The most important words here are the verbs:  “would” and “could happen”.   It could happen but then again it could not.  And yes it would be exciting, if it happened.  Then again it wouldn’t be exciting if it didn’t.]

With this potential new and mutually beneficial partnership with Emera Energy which builds upon our existing partnership with them on our recall power from the Upper Churchill, we are embarking upon an exciting journey that has never before been seriously contemplated and pursued by those seeking to develop the Lower Churchill.

[BP:  There’s that conditional language again:  “potential”.   Of course, the idea of selling power to the Maritimes is as old as the Lower Churchill itself.  Most of what Williams seems to be doing here is thinking inside the box of what happened when he worked at the House of Assembly in the 1970s. It was very seriously contemplated back then, but abandoned.  Incidentally, remember about the claims that turned out to be total crap?  Well, there’s another one

We are saying "thank you Quebec, but we simply do not need you to develop this project". We are going to bring that clean, green power down from Labrador to the island and then sending power across to Nova Scotia.

[BP:  Funny but that just rings hollow in light of the news  - still unreported by any conventional news media - that Williams spent five frackin’ years trying to convince Hydro-Quebec to take an equity stake in the Lower Churchill, with redress for the 1969 contract put “to one side.”  It’s hard to get beyond the idea Williams is just talking this up to soothe his jangled nerves over last year’s series of Churchill Falls embarrassments or to replay Joe Smallwood’s 1964 strategy.]

Ultimately, some of the power could also end up going into New Brunswick or the hungry United States market as Emera has assets in Maine as well.

[BP:  Hungry?  Interesting choice of words given that the province’s energy corporation hasn’t been able to interest a single one of the hungry mouths to buy a morsel of the Lower Churchill food.  Now Hydro-Quebec on the other hand…]

How about that folks? Our power developed and managed by the people of Newfoundland and Labrador and sold to market for the first time in history without having to beg Quebec for a piece of the pie!

[BP translation:  And if they’d accepted the secret deal without redress, I’d be standing here kissing French ass.]

This partnership with Emera would be based on another previously untested development option, and that is a phased development of the project. As you know the Lower Churchill River system is comprised of Muskrat Falls with 824 megawatts of power and Gull Island with 2250 megawatts.

[BP:  There’s that conditional language again:  “would”.  One of the reasons why people didn’t think of phasing with the small dam first is that the first dam can’t really generate the cash to pay for the huge transmission infrastructure and make cash at the same time.]

Our discussions with Emera and Nova Scotia would result in a partnership that would see us proceed with the development of Muskrat Falls first. The power from Muskrat would be used to help us displace expensive, dirty power from Holyrood which in itself justifies the project, and then the remainder would be sold to our partners in Nova Scotia and beyond.

[BP:  Displace isn’t the same as shut down entirely, is it?  That’s good because there is no plan to close Holyrood.  And as such it doesn’t justify the multi-billion project in itself.   It sure doesn’t justify the project when you have plenty of juice on the island to meet anticipated need without spending all that cash we don’t have.]

By using the Lower Churchill power here in the province, we will be able to provide stable rates for generations to come and an appropriate return to the treasury.

[BP:  Ratepayers will enjoy stable rates anyway, without the Lower Churchill.  If Williams builds his legacy project taxpayers will likely be saddled with prices that are much higher than the need to be.  The environmental assessment panel already told NALCOR that their submissions don’t justify building the Lower Churchill using exactly the same rationale Williams just used.  he knows that yet he is sticking to the same old – disproven – line.  makes you wonder what he is really up to.]

We would share the transmission with willing partners, unlike those in Quebec.

[BP translation:  Yeah and I’d be kissing their asses if only they’d have let me.  And thank heavens nobody remembers April 2009 when I cut a deal with Hydro-Quebec. ]

The larger Gull Island development would be a separate phase to follow, and would provide opportunities to attract industry to Labrador, should commercial partners be prepared to provide appropriate economic benefits.

[BP translation:  We could use the power for any company that would be foolish enough to come here knowing I’d expropriate their asses back to the stone-age just because  I woke up one morning without enough wood to finish the job. And frig AbitibiBowater too while we’re at it.]

Needless to say, there are still details to be worked out before and if a final agreement falls into place. But we are extremely excited about the prospects of developing this project in a way that brings real and meaningful benefits to the people of the province, to our partners and to our customers.

[BP translation:  That’s about all we have to get excited these days – the idea that something might possibly happen at some point down the road.  Anyone got any other conditional language?  I’ve used all mine up]

Of course, it is never over til it is over but we are cautiously optimistic that we will be able to announce something sooner rather than later.

I am hopeful that with your support we can finally see this project get off the ground.

[BP translation:  If by something “we” mean just enough to let me get the frig out of here permanently.  Put a few bucks in the retirement coffers when we have the going away party.  In the meantime, keep the Citation turning and burning, boys.  We’ll be wheels up before you know it.]

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Knuckle-dragging council pissed off at hard-working recyclers

Put aluminum cans and other recyclable beverage containers on your front doorstep in some parts of St. John’s and they’ll be gone before morning.

The aluminum fairies are busy.

Think of it as a form of curb side recycling.  These hard-working men and women have been trekking the streets since the provincial government introduced the beverage-deposit system to encourage recycling. Why they do it is of no concern.  The fact is that they have helped to cut down on the amount of garbage in our city.

And they’ve been doing it for years.

Rain, sleet or snow.

The same years that the knuckle-draggers at city council resisted running a curb side recycling program altogether.  Sure they had money for other stuff:  Wells-Coombs memorial money pit.  Cruise ship junkets.  Council was willing to spend other people’s money  - yours and mine, that is - on anything, by the bagful.

But something like recycling that is fundamentally part of what the city should be doing. anyway?  Too expensive, supposedly.

And so it fell to the people some affectionately call aluminum fairies to do what the crowd downtown would not bother to do.

Now some people are complaining about the aluminum fairies.  And some other people are trying to figure out ways to stop the aluminum fairies from plying their chosen trade. Plenty of crap-talk has been tossed around as well, likening the people who collect beverage containers to gulls or suggesting they are all people on social assistance. Hardly socially progressive talk, one would think, but definitely indicative of the bigoted attitudes held by some people in this town.

The only obvious reason is that the knuckle-draggers at city council have been counting on people tossing out beverage containers so that the city could pick up some spare change.  But that would just cut into the legitimate business of a whole bunch of people who are not – as city council clearly is – a bunch of johnnies-and-janes-come-lately to being environmentally responsible citizens of an otherwise stinky planet ee-arth. 

They may be grubby compared to the tonier lot at Tammany at Gower but at least the aluminum fairies work hard for their nickels.  And it would be exceedingly bad form for the crowd on council to do anything but change the recycling program they’ve started up to allow the aluminum fairies to do their business unhindered.

Chuck the stupid blue bags, for starters. Next time Doc O’Keefe can spare a moment from gallivanting around with cruise ship folk or hobnobbing at the local Connie convention, he might try hitting up his Conservative confreres for a few bob to supply the good folks of St. John’s with blue boxes. 

The colour should be appealing to their Connie sensibilities, for starters, so they should look favourably on the idea. And as for the cash, the provincial Conservatives have bags of it, thanks to the beverage recycling program. Blue boxes are also a damn-sight better than the blue bags, as well, since they make it easier for residents to put all their recycling in one container.

With a blue box at the curb, the fairies won’t have to make a mess to get at the stuff they are interested in.

But fines or tickets? 

Forget about it. 

There’s not a city councilor in St. John’s fit to look on one of those people shoving a shopping cart full of cans and tetra packs around our streets let alone shag with their work.

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NALCOR: the power of nostalgia (Part 2)

From Jason Churchill’s paper on Labrador hydroelectric development for the Blame Canada commission, a few paragraphs on Lower Churchill development (numbers are for footnotes in original):

The story of the attempted development of the Lower Churchill River begins in September 1972 when BRINCO, using the Upper Churchill model, made a formal offer to the Moores’ government to develop the Gull Island and Muskrat Island sites. The Moores’ administration refused to accept the idea of being tied into a long-term contract with Hydro-Quebec. In 1974, after two years of failed negotiations, Moores decided to nationalise the CFL Co. portion of BRINCO. (45)  Nationalisation was presented as a matter of principle; government needed control over resources in order to mould the province’s future. At a cost of $160 million, nationalisation of BRINCO was an expensive exercise in political philosophy. The key argument underlying the move was that the public interest of the province could differ from the private interest of the company. However, Section 9(5) of the 1953 BRINCO legislation prevented the export of any power without the explicit consent of the government.(46)

A former Conservative member of the Moores’ administration, the Honourable William Marshall, considered the initiative to have been a great mistake as it “compounded the mistake” of the 1969 power contract. While costing an enormous amount of money, it did not improve the province’s bargaining position. Marshall stated that the only thing accomplished was provincial money being used to buy out private shareholders. Each year, the province continued to pay the interest on the money borrowed to finance the deal while the Lower Churchill remained undeveloped.(47) The measure failed because Newfoundland and Labrador’s core problem of access to markets without terms being dictated by Quebec remained unchanged. 

By the mid-1970s, negotiations had become increasingly complex due to inflationary pressures, the energy crisis and the overt inequities of the 1969 Churchill Falls Contract. In February 1975, after lengthy negotiations, the federal government committed to provide $425 million towards a $1.842 billion Gull Island project. While issues related to electrical transmission were not secured, the federal government was illustrating a strong willingness to provide financial assistance to Newfoundland and Labrador. However, by August 1975, inflationary pressures had forced the cost of the project up to  approximately $2.318 billion. As a result, the Newfoundland and Labrador government had to order a complete re-examination of the project and associated costs. (48)

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Emera silent on Lower Churchill talks

From Canadian Press:

HALIFAX - Halifax-based energy company Emera Inc., is declining comment on whether a deal is imminent with Newfoundland's Nalcor Energy on the proposed Lower Churchill hydroelectric project in Labrador.

…

Emera spokeswoman Sasha Irving will only say that talks are ongoing with both Newfoundland and New Brunswick on an energy link.

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NALCOR: the power of nostalgia

Via labradore comes a copy of the 1978 ad used to push the idea of selling Lower Churchill power to Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island.

Next up:  NALCOR invests in a pet rock factory.

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Williams announces political exit plan

Danny Williams always said that building the Lower Churchill was the only thing he wanted to do before leaving politics. He took a huge step down that road in 2006 when he rejected other options in favour of the supposed go-it-alone strategy.

With no markets and no money for the project, and with setback after setback in the environmental and land claims fronts, the odds were slim he could achieve that dream.

Slim odds, that is, until this weekend. Williams told provincial Conservatives he is trying to lure Nova Scotia and Emera  into a deal to build a greatly scaled down version of the project.  That confirms he is trying to cut a deal so he can leave politics.

The Telegram reports that:

The agreement would develop the smaller of the two parts of the project — Muskrat Falls — first and work towards the larger part — Gull Island — later on.

If the deal comes to fruition, Lower Churchill power would travel from Labrador to the Island part of the province first, to eliminate the Holyrood generating station.

There are more than a few problems with that proposal as the Innu Nation pointed out in a recent submission to the environmental review:

• the capital cost of Gull Island includes the costs of the 230/735 kV switchyard (est. $130M), communications infrastructure (est. $70M) and other costs associated with construction of the first of the two projects – these costs would need to be borne by Muskrat Falls if it is constructed first;
• cost savings, such as reuse of the construction bridge and construction camps, and staged mobilization from Gull Island will no longer be available to Muskrat Falls and must be added to its capital cost (est. $50M total);
• construction costs at Muskrat Falls could potentially increase for other reasons as a result of Gull Island not being in place during construction, including costs for larger diversion facilities and cofferdams (est. to be determined);
• based on the information in Table 23 of the Supplemental Report, the capital cost of Muskrat Falls is $2682/kW compared to $1902/kW for Gull Island meaning that it has a lower rate of return and will generate less cash flow; adding an estimated $250M to the capital cost of Muskrat Falls results in an estimated capital cost of $2985/kW.

On top of that, the residents of eastern Newfoundland would wind up bearing most of the costs for power they actually don’t need.  There is no plan to shut down Holyrood, as NALCOR has already acknowledged publicly, so the power isn’t needed to displace the diesel generators at that plant. Still, taxpayers would left paying for it.

And even if NALCOR did shut down the Holyrood diesels, the 2008 seizure of hydro-electric assets owned by three private sector companies coupled with the shutdown of the Abitibi mill at Grand Falls meant that NALCOR has more than enough generation to meet existing and forecast demand already. They just don’t need the juice.

It gets better. Weak electricity prices coupled with the front-end loading of capital on on Muskrat Falls would likely mean power sent to Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and the United States could only sell at heavily discounted prices. Even Muskrat Falls power at a break even price would likely be too expensive for the markets to bear.   That’s an old and fundamental problem with trying to sell Labrador power so far away from Labrador.

No problem for NALCOR, these days. Thanks to changes made to the Electrical Power Control Act in 2006, the Hydro Corporation Act, the Public Utilities Act,  and government policy, NALCOR wouldn’t suffer any losses. The company can export all the discounted power it wants  knowing that the people of Newfoundland and Labrador will wind up paying for it.

As for a federal loan guarantee mentioned in the Telegram story, the Premier can look forward to a truly sweet deal. In 2006, federal Conservative party leader told Premier Williams that a federal Conservative government would consider joining in the project in the same fashion as Hibernia.  That would mean only one thing:  an equity stake. What a massive climb down that would be to go from attacking Stephen Harper as a kitten-eating alien to welcoming him in on the Williams Legacy Project.

None of that would actually matter if Williams was planning to stay in Florida permanently before the next election, though.  He need only announce a memorandum of understanding with Nova Scotia and Emera to give him the excuse he’d need to go wheels up on the private jet. His successor would get the job of negotiating a deal.  And if the whole thing fell apart, Williams could just point to his successor and shrug.

If Williams is close to any sort of announcement on the Lower Churchill it can only be part of a plan for him to exeunt stage right, tout de suite. 

Well, that or this is just another part of Williams’ revival of the 1964 ploy conveniently timed for polling month. That could be another version of something BP noted in another post:

Interestingly enough, the rumour started to sputter a couple of weeks ago with talk of an impending Lower Churchill announcement in November.  Those of us who’ve been following the latest saga of the Lower Churchill didn’t see anything obvious on the horizon.  The environmental assessment process is bogged down with  significant problems. There are no markets and no money and the provincial government itself can’t afford to backstop the $14 billion project all by its lonesome.

Anyone who seriously thinks this is exactly what the Premier announced is in for a rude shock.

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Almost immediate update:  Added reference to rumour about polling month from earlier post.

Will Danny expropriate?

Talks between Vale and its Voisey’s Bay union broke down again on Saturday.

This is after Premier Danny Williams tried to be “the voice of reason” on Friday.

Will Danny expropriate? 

Well, he’s undoubtedly desperate to find a foreign demon to distract attention coming into an election year. It wouldn’t be too hard for Williams to cast Vale as another foreign multi-national attempting to use local resources without properly compensating the resource owners. He could even posture as a great defender of unions.

The mine has a huge market value and – unlike Grand Falls-Windsor – the provincial government would have an easy time unloading the mill or operating it profitably as a Crown corporation.  Heck, revenue from the mine could pay for the Lower Churchill.

And, also unlike the old AbitibiBowater properties, there are no stinking environmental messes to expropriate by accident.  There may be environmental problems but nothing that should hold up the expropriation or even cause the province’s New Democrats to lose a wink of sleep.

Much would depend on whether or not Vale had a legal angle under NAFTA.  If the company can’t find a way to sue, then stripping the company of its mine and the smelter project at Long Harbour is a pretty simple affair for a government with such a commanding presence in the House.

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Quoteworthy

“Blogging’s like sex cos: to do it well u need to do it frequently, really enjoy it and take careful note of feedback.”

Tweet by Paul Waugh, deputy political editor at the London Evening Standard, quoted in a post at Left Foot Forward.

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Gordon Pinsent reads Bieber

In case you haven’t seen this yet…

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Plain English: he’s a bully

As the province’s Reform-based Conservative Party gathers in St. John’s for its annual rally, the editor of the province’s major daily assesses its leader in the plainest English yet used in the conventional media:

So, are you fighting for the little guy when you deliberately use your power and position to insult and belittle any opponent, or are you just another bully?

How long is this going to go on, and who else is the premier going to tag as a traitor or a nothing or a zero?

Here’s my opinion — this kind of behaviour is petty and childish and an abuse of power.

He’s more than willing to sit as judge and jury over the rights of ordinary citizens to speak their minds. Let’s hope he’s not looking for the third part of that triad.

It’s now only a matter of time before the pitchfork and torch mob take to the Internet and elsewhere to denounce this kind of penetrating insight into the obvious. 

That’s not to diminish in any way Russell Wangersky’s comments.  He’s right on every point of the editorial.  What Wangersky said long ago became obvious to a great many people in the province.

It’s just to say that seven years in, Danny Williams can count on unquestioning support and public defences of him from all quarters in the province, including  - scarily enough - some newsrooms. 

Whenever their god is challenged, they’ll set fire to the heretic in a moment.

And right now, Wangersky just nailed his theses to their front door.

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Related: The video that has turned out to be a minor Internet success.

 

Outrage

Unromantic Traffic, October 18-25

1. No Dawn gives another Lower Churchill setback
2. The rent is too damn high
3. Court docket now online
4. Priorities
5. Guaranteed Annual Income
6. Bond Papers needs your vote
7. Tom Rideout meets the Bride of Frankenstein
8. More Showboat!
9. New Dawn without Light
10. Showboat!

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D’oh! Dipper leader skewered by Johnson

It’s a pretty rare day when the likes of Charlene Johnson can score a major political blow but land one the provincial environment minister did on Friday, square between the eyes of the province’s New Democratic Party leader.

Seems Lorraine Michael served on an environmental panel in 1999 that approved use of a natural pond as a storage for tailings from Voisey’s Bay. Now Michael and her federal Dipper counterparts are lambasting the provincial Conservatives for doing the same thing at Vale’s smelter project in Long Harbour but made no reference to her own views of another project barely more than a decade ago.

There’s nothing like hypocrisy to damage the political cred. Johnson’s release must have sent the Dipper opposition office into a major tailspin trying to figure out how to unfrack themselves from this simple but devastating gaffe.

Then again that’s the sort of thing that happens when you do one thing and say another. Next thing you know, the New Democrats will try and erase many of the ideologically progressive ideas from the party constitution or push regressive tax reform all in an effort to appear more like Conservatives.

Oops.

Too late.

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Williams tries inadvertent humour to help end Voisey’s Bay strike

When the threat of an industrial inquiry didn’t send the two sides scurrying back to the negotiating table, Danny Williams called the union and Vale Inco to his office on Friday in another effort to settle the 15 month old strike.

Industrial inquiries typically don’t work in labour disputes of this type that must be settled ultimately by an agreement.

Williams – who has been known to storm out of negotiations and engage in petty, vicious, personal attacks during negotiations or other disputes – claimed straight-facedly that he wanted “to try to be the voice of reason” with the two sides.

The provincial government has seen its mineral royalties plummet during the strike.

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Priorities

With a chance to pose a question to the Prime Minister about troubles in search and rescue, CBC opted to ask Stephen Harper about his relationship with Danny Williams instead.

Meanwhile, in an interview with the acing Opposition leader about why his office had hired an experienced journalist  - known not to swallow the Premier’s crap as if it were candy -  to serve as communications director for the Opposition Office, a CBC radio host wanted to know how that might affect the Opposition’s relationship with Danny Williams.   

Nice to know the Mother Corp has its news priorities in order.

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The rent is too damn high

Politicians should know how to communicate their ideas simply, consistently and repeatedly.  Repetition is one of the ways you can ensure a message gets through and that it sticks.

Take as a fine example of these simple axioms none better than Jimmy McMillan, candidate for governor of New York.  Say what you will about McMillan’s political party, these edited clips of a recent candidate’s debate demonstrate how effect he is as a communicator. 

Get the message?

If you listen to any other bits of the debate, you’ll quickly realise the extent to which McMillan is a fringe candidate.  But when it comes to simply and effectively communicating his party’s key message, this guy is way out in front of the pack.

These clips running on the nightly news as part of a straightforward report would likely win the guy a ton of votes. If you don’t think it’s possible, just look at local politics since 2003.

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Non-residential commercial investment Q3 2010

From Statistics Canada, the latest numbers of investment in non-residential building construction:

Total construction is up 22.6% from the second quarter and 17% year over year (Q3 2009 to Q3 2010).  Institutional is up almost 30% year over year reflecting the government’s capital spending. Commercial is up 27% from the previous quarter but only 3% year over year.

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