Goldilocks and the three mayors #nlpoli

Almost a week after we all got a peek at the new provincial electoral boundaries,  things have settled down in some areas and the insanity has exploded in others.

Over on the political side,  things have largely settled down.  The Liberals, for example have a raft of nominations to re-run but there’s no sign of any significant problems.  Sure, there are pissed off people, but in the long run things should work out. 

On the west coast, every incumbent or nominated candidate should be able to find a home. Your humble e-scribbler made a mistake on Monday:  there are actually enough seats in the new configuration for Gerry Byrne,  Stelman Flynn, and Ed Joyce to find a spot.

Jim Bennett is doing the smart thing and looking for a seat without a Liberal incumbent where there’s a good chance he could win. He’s looking at Terra Nova, according to media reports, and the current Conservative incumbent - Sandy Collins - is eyeing Gander.  Ditto Jeff Marshall, who has decided to run in Ferryland district now that the old Kilbride district is gone. 

Minority Report #nlpoli

One of the police officers responsible for the Royal Newfoundland Constabulary’s Twitter presence did an interview with CBC’s Anthony Germain last Friday.

The online CBC story that came out of the interview had an interesting set of comments in it. Constable Geoffrey Higdon said:

“People think Facebook or Twitter is different in how we traditionally police. It's actually very much the same. In a sense, it's no different than someone writing a threat to someone, or to an organization, on a wall in a bathroom or a public place. And we would investigate that and treat that seriously, until we determine that there is no threat."

Writing something on Twitter is like writing something on a bathroom wall.

Got that?

Politics, the police, and tragedy #nlpoli

Last October,  Premier Paul Davis appointed Lynn Moore to his new advisory council on crime.  Moore is in private practice these days but, as the little profile Davis’ office appended to their announcement of her appointment shows,  Moore spent five years as the Royal Newfoundland Constabulary’s in-house lawyer.

She’s also been known to write the odd letter or two to the editor of the local papers.

Last October, for example, Moore felt compelled to write to the editor of theindependent.ca to explain why she thought that the province wouldn’t turn into a police state now that a former police constable was the Premier.  Such thinking was the result of bias and elitism,  according to Moore.

Last weekend, Moore sent another letter to the gang at the Indy.  This time,  she tried to tie the death of Don Dunphy to what Moore called “boneheaded” decisions like the Liberal one 20 years ago that put one cop in a car instead of two.

Political Boundary Issues #nlpoli

Some people thought that the electoral boundaries commission wouldn’t get its job done within 120 days.

On Friday, those people found out that was a pretty silly hope on their part.  That’s the day the commission released its preliminary maps of the new 36 districts on the island.  The district maps appeared on the Internet around 11:00 AM and by noon the truly hard-core political nerds had looked at the maps and sized them up.

Here are some quick observations on the boundaries and initial reactions to them.

The week from hell #nlpoli

You gotta feel for police chief Bill Janes and the rest of the men and women of the Royal Newfoundland Constabulary.

All this happened between Sunday, April 5, 2015 and Thursday April 9, 2015:

• An RNC officer investigating a complaint by the Premier’s Office about an online comment shoots and kills the interview subject during a confrontation.
• A former civilian employee convicted of tipping off the subject of a drug investigation about the police operation appeals her nine month sentence for obstruction of justice.
• A Provincial Court judge in Corner Brook sentenced a constable to four months for making indecent telephone calls and 10 months for misleading police during their investigation of the indecent telephone calls.
• The Crown Prosecution Service is reviewing an RNC internal investigation of a senior non-commissioned officer for his actions in the indecent telephone call investigation.  The internal investigation found no no grounds to lay charges against the NCO.
• A constable who has been unpaid leave for two and a half years was arrested on Thursday and charged with two counts of uttering threats to kill or harm a woman and two counts of uttering threats to cause damage to property and of damaging the property.  Janes has ordered an internal investigation into the incident. 

-srbp-

The irresponsible rush to judgment #nlpoli

For those not involved but deeply concerned about the events in Mitchell’s Brook on Easter Sunday, one of the more disturbing aspects of the Dunphy shooting has been the ease with which a relatively small number of people have taken up sides on the shooting without much in the way of evidence.

The rush to judgment has been equally easy both for those unduly keen to declare the shooting was “by the book” as for those who see the shooting as a political assassination,  murder of an injured worker, or a sign of what will come  under the federal government’s controversial anti-terror legislation. 

At the same time,  official sources have decided to say very little.  They shouldn’t discuss the subject of the investigation itself.  That would be inappropriate and both the Royal Newfoundland Constabulary and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police have shut down any extraneous information.  The only official comment is coming from the detachment handling the investigation.

The official vacuum extends much winder than it should though.  There’s a complete absence of factual information about the type of investigation, its scope,  or the actors involved in this incident.  Basic information would kill off most of the commentary out there coming from all sides. 

The result is that the public is misinformed.   They aren’t getting a full picture.

For the Quebec lovers #nlpoli

We’ve got two recent pieces on events in Quebec.

Don Macpherson explains why the student “strikes” aren’t really strikes at all.

And for all those people still cheering about the great student resistance to austerity in Quebec,  Paul Wells explains what austerity in Quebec means.

-srbp-

The Dunphy Shooting: serious questions #nlpoli

Question Number 1:  Who has been trying to spin the story by feeding both David Cochrane and Fred Hutton with confidential information?

The standard police position is to withhold all information about officer-involved shootings as part of the investigation.

That’s the position Royal Newfoundland Constabulary chief Bill Janes took at his news conference on Monday morning about the death of Donny Dunphy.

Yet, both VOCM and CBC reported information on Sunday evening and early Monday morning about the fatal police shooting in a rural community that could have only come from either very highly placed political sources or police officers very close to the incident and the investigation.

Here’s the first line from Cochrane’s first story:

CBC News has learned that an officer of the Royal Newfoundland Constabulary, who was at the scene of the fatal shooting on Sunday in Mitchells Brook, NL, was there to investigate an alleged threat against Premier Paul Davis.

Other reports indicated that the officer shot Dunphy after Dunphy produced a “long gun” on the lone police officer there.

All those details could only have come from the officer who shot Dunphy, someone else who was on the scene at the time of the shooting, one of the investigating officers, or a senior political staffer who had been briefed on the incident by police.

Who has been leaking information?

Soothsayer #nlpoli

Wade Locke has had a profound impact on public policy in this province like no academic since Parzival Copes.

Locke has been intimately involved with Conservative policy since 2003.  He has provided advice to both the oil industry and to the provincial government and its energy company Nalcor.  He’s also acted as a public commentator on economic issues, often simultaneously and without having the conflict of interest inherent in such a position identified for the audience.

If you aren't on holiday somewhere,  take a look at this interview  Wade Locke did with Roger Bill of BellAliant’s community channel.  Wade’s comments will tie into a couple of posts coming later this week.

-srbp-

The New Chainsaw Earle #nlpoli

Carol Furlong had the good fortune to be the head of the province’s largest public sector union at a time when the provincial government had more cash than it knew what to do with and was prepared to buy support from anyone, anywhere, at any price.

Now that the bills for the Conservatives’ profligacy are coming due,  the people who profited from it are rightly nervous that they will be asked to pay up.

The fellow they elected to replace Furlong – Jerry Earle – has promised to be more aggressive in dealing with government.  He appears to be a reactionary union boss of the old fashioned kind.  In his first scrum with reporters,  Earle promised to make himself the official opposition to government.

While everyone in the province ought to take notice of the NAPE presidential election two politicians in particular need to pay particular attention.

Rumpole and the Judge’s Wage #nlpoli

How hard can it be to figure out what Provincial Court Judges should get paid to do their work dispensing justice all around the province?

Apparently, it can be quite difficult.

There’s a teeny amendment bill in the House that sets a new date for a report from a commission that has to be set up to figure out the judges’ pay and benefits:

(1.2) Notwithstanding subsection (1), the next report required under subsection (1) after September 30, 2010 shall be presented to the minister not later than December 31, 2015.

Once the thing gets through the House,  this “Act is considered to have come into force on September 29, 2014.”

That’s six months ago.

What the heck has been going on all this time?

The sky is falling. Or not. #nlpoli

First they claimed the budget consultation would be way later than usual.

So your humble e-scribbler worked it out. 

Turns out it wasn’t later than usual.

Then they said the budget would be way later than usual.

End of April or early May? 

Turns out that while the budget usually shows up around the end of March,  the Tories brought down two back-to-back budgets in April a few years ago.

Premier Paul Davis tied the provincial budget to the federal one and last week the feds started talking about a budget in May. 

Then there’s the Doom and Gloom forecasts of every public sector union in the province.  The Conservatives are going to sell everything,  cut the rest, and fire everyone else.

More like a snapshot than a panorama #nlpoli

Last week, a group called Samara released the results of its research on Canadians and politics.  Democracy 360 they called it.

The media locally covered it, if for no other reason than it showed that Newfoundlanders and Labradorians trailed the country in things like donations to political parties.  Didn’t fit our perception that we all love our politics, some reporters said.

One of the news stories went to Memorial University and talked to students. Results are shocking said one student politician. Students are really politically engaged, apparently.  They talk about politics a lot.

Democracy 360 and the coverage of it are more good examples example of why it pays to look at the details to find out what is going on.

More of the same. It’s the economy. And, … #nlpoli

Past behaviour is a good indicator of future behaviour.

If that’s the case, then lots of people are getting their knickers in a very great bunch over nothing when it comes to the budget.

The Conservatives set their course with Wade Locke’s prosperity plan. Here are the key elements, as SRBP laid out in 2013

• Government will budget for annual deficits of about $500 million (accrual)/$1.0 billion (cash), if necessary.
• The money to cover that deficit will come from borrowing.  That is, government will borrow from lenders, as Tom Marshall said in 2012, or government will take money out of temporary cash reserves, with no apparent intent to re-pay that own-source borrowing.
• Government will make up any shortfalls beyond that deficit level by cutting spending in one area and shifting the spending to other areas.  

The ongoing saga of the remittance economy #nlpoli

A downturn in the economy in Saskatchewan and Alberta caused by falling oil prices will affect Newfoundland and Labrador.

This is hardly surprising.  Regular readers will know the phenomenon as remittance labour or migrant labour, something your humble e-scribbler has been writing about since 2007 or thereabouts.  One of the curious aspects of recent economic growth in the province has been that a sizeable chunk of it is actually driven by circumstances outside the province. 

Thousands of workers have been travelling to work in Alberta, Saskatchewan and the north on a cycle of so many weeks working followed by so many days or weeks back in the province. 

Letto to speak on access legislation #nlpoli

Commissioner Doug Letto will be speaking to the Newfoundland and Labrador Chapter of the Canadian Public Relations Society at the Fluvarium, March 27, 2015 at 12:30 PM.

Doug will be speaking about the new ATTIPA legislation and its impact on public relations practice.

Admission is $40 for non-members and $35 for members.

E-mail cprsnlchapter@gmail.com to register.

-srbp-

A legacy of secrecy and bad deals #nlpoli

In response to questioning in the House of Assembly last Tuesday and Wednesday, natural resources Minister Derrick Dalley confirmed that the provincial government is in secret talks with Norwegian oil giant Statoil to develop a new field offshore Newfoundland.

There’s was nothing in the local media about it until the end of the week when the Premier appeared to chance his position on the talks.

The Telegram’s James McLeod wrote:

Premier Paul Davis says that when he told his natural resources minister to wrap up a major offshore oil deal by the end of the year, he didn’t really mean exactly that.

 

Budget ignorance abounds #nlpoli

The provincial government’s own economics and statistics agency conducted a telephone survey for the budget consultations this year. 

They released the results along with the questions and some details about how they conducted the poll. Let’s just look at the answers to some of the questions, as presented by the provincial government.

The Next Question #nlpoli

Scott Andrews’ political career ended last fall.

He may not have realised it at the time.

His bizarre news conference on Thursday made plain he may still not understand that his political future is over, even though he – in effect – shot himself between the eyes in front of a gaggle of reporters.

As much as some might find in picking over his political entrails, there is a far more interesting political questions that has been hanging since Liberal leader Justin Trudeau punted Andrews from the Liberal caucus last November.

Who is going to run for the Liberal nomination in Avalon?

-srbp-

British VC Memorial Dishonours Former British Dominion #nlpoli

As part of its commemoration of the Great War,  the British government unveiled a memorial to Victoria Cross winners who were born in other countries. 

That includes Commonwealth countries and, in some cases, places that weren’t even countries during the First World War.

It’s a companion to the memorial to British Victoria Cross winners: a small plaque in the birthplace of every person who received the highest British decoration for gallantry.

Wonderful stuff.

There’s just a problem with two of the recipients.