Check out the Conservatives' first TV spots - a series of three 30 sec spots built around the fake concept.
Here's Steve appearing to be interviewed by someone who is obviously not a real TV presenter. There's a screen in the background on which people who appear obviously to be actors are reading obviously scripted bits in an obviously 'I am reading a cue card or teleprompter' kinda way.
The people are referred to by first names, like "Joan", so we get the impression really quickly that these are generic Canadians. They are not real - even though there are obviously a few million real people across the country who would have been prepared to participate in some Conservative Party advertising.
Then Steve recites a bit of dialogue in a obviously stilted way. Aside from the obviously stiff approach and the obviously fake nature to the spots, the messaging is pretty heavy handed, as in crudely executed.
Then there are the first Liberals spots.
A soft approach featuring real people, with real names in real places across Canada telling you why they are voting Liberal. Since I had a small part in identifying people to participate, I can tell you they are real.
Then there's another one with a series of headlines praising Liberal policies over the past couple of years.
There's a big gap here in the quality and the execution of these TV spots on just about every level, from creative on down through the list. To be fair, the Conservative spots match their first week of campaigning in tone and message, but - and this is a big but - there is a sophisticated way to run political advertising that the Conservatives have just missed. They missed it in the flight they ran in August as well.
If the context and appearance - the look and feel - of the advertising lacks credibility, then the message will lack credibility as well.
But just so that everyone understand what the standards are for this type of advertising, try surfing through this site, The Living Room Candidate. I dare you to find a recent political television ad as lame-assed as these Conservative ones.
04 December 2005
SES rolls on; PM and Harper move to Atlantic Canada
Another day, a new set of rolling polls from SES Research.
The Day 6 numbers, updated to 03 December 05, show the Liberals with 38%, the Conservatives with 29% and New Democrats at 15%. All changes are within the margin of error for the poll, but there seems to be an upward trending for Liberals and a flat line trending for Conservatives.
in the SES Leadership Index, there is also a significant change, but again, the fluctuations of the index components are within the margin of error.
Bottom line: Paul Martin still scores significantly higher than Steve Harper on the cumulative leadership scores.
The campaign shifts to Newfoundland on Monday and Tuesday. Paul Martin will address the St.John's Board of Trade on Monday. Stephen Harper is in St. John's on Tuesday, reportedly. Both leaders are obviously looking at the battleground in the three easternmost ridings in the country.
Two of the seats were held by the Conservatives after the last election but by the slimmest margin that I can recall for those seats, the ones Connie faithfuls were touting as "safe". The Liberals are looking for gains in those seats, hence the PM's visit.
Meanwhile, in the Avalon riding, former provincial member of the legislature Fabian Manning has bowed to the almost unprecedented pressure and will carry the Conservative banner. The seat was held by John Efford after the 2004 election. He'll be supported by Jim Morgan, among others. Morgan is a former provincial fisheries minister with more baggage from his past than new ideas.
Some reports have Stephen Harper in St. John's this week - most likely Tuesday. His goal will be to shore up the Avalon peninsula contests, particularly in the wake of polling that shows Newfoundlanders and Labradorians would return Liberals to Ottawa in the province's seven Commons ridings, if the vote was held today.
The Day 6 numbers, updated to 03 December 05, show the Liberals with 38%, the Conservatives with 29% and New Democrats at 15%. All changes are within the margin of error for the poll, but there seems to be an upward trending for Liberals and a flat line trending for Conservatives.
in the SES Leadership Index, there is also a significant change, but again, the fluctuations of the index components are within the margin of error.
Bottom line: Paul Martin still scores significantly higher than Steve Harper on the cumulative leadership scores.
The campaign shifts to Newfoundland on Monday and Tuesday. Paul Martin will address the St.John's Board of Trade on Monday. Stephen Harper is in St. John's on Tuesday, reportedly. Both leaders are obviously looking at the battleground in the three easternmost ridings in the country.
Two of the seats were held by the Conservatives after the last election but by the slimmest margin that I can recall for those seats, the ones Connie faithfuls were touting as "safe". The Liberals are looking for gains in those seats, hence the PM's visit.
Meanwhile, in the Avalon riding, former provincial member of the legislature Fabian Manning has bowed to the almost unprecedented pressure and will carry the Conservative banner. The seat was held by John Efford after the 2004 election. He'll be supported by Jim Morgan, among others. Morgan is a former provincial fisheries minister with more baggage from his past than new ideas.
Some reports have Stephen Harper in St. John's this week - most likely Tuesday. His goal will be to shore up the Avalon peninsula contests, particularly in the wake of polling that shows Newfoundlanders and Labradorians would return Liberals to Ottawa in the province's seven Commons ridings, if the vote was held today.
03 December 2005
The pollsters at odds
Reconcile the SES rolling polls with the latest from EKOS.
The latest SES numbers show the Libs at 36 with the Connies at 31. EKOS has the Libs at 34 and the Connies at 27.
One possible explanation is that the EKOS numbers reflect the state of play up to December 1. Then if look at last night's SES numbers - which correspond to the EKOS sampling time frame, you see that the EKOS ones are even farther out of whack or vice versa.
Maybe it's just that pesky margin of error thing. There's a more likely explanation, although the Conservative number is a teensy bit outside that range.
Then there's the issue of trending. The EKOS poll shows the Conservatives on a downward trend; SES has them moving upward, likely reflecting the first week of non-stop announcements.
In the regional numbers, and even allowing for the large margins of error involved in the national ones, all available polling shows similar pictures.
The Conservatives are ahead only in Alberta. They trail everywhere else, and in some cases, like Atlantic Canada, they are almost 20 points behind the Liberals. In Ontario, often described by lazy commentators as "vote-rich", the Conservatives a significantly behind the Liberals even at this stage and after a week of announcements that seem to have given the party a bump overall.
Flip along the EKOS poll and you'll seem some food for thought in the issues questions and in the demographic breakdowns of party support.
On page 23 of the EKOS background report you'll find a really telling number, however, and that is the stated expectation of respondents on who will win the election, irrespective of their own party preference.
Fully 64% of respondents expected the Liberals to win, compared to 18% for the Conservatives. Since April of this year, the gap between those two party expectations has continued to grow.
There is still plenty of desire for a new governing party, but that isn't reflected in any of the other positions.
For example, Paul Martin is viewed by EKOS respondents as the best person to lead the country and he is in the lead by a substantial margin everywhere except Quebec and Alberta.
Each poll offers a wealth of information. The key is to know how to read it properly.
The one thing both EKOS and SES seem to agree on is that the election is similar to the overall responses in 2004. I tend to agree with SES this evening that the race is trimming down to a two-way contest - Jack Layton's bus has developed a serious mechanical problem, with bits flying off at every turn.
The latest SES numbers show the Libs at 36 with the Connies at 31. EKOS has the Libs at 34 and the Connies at 27.
One possible explanation is that the EKOS numbers reflect the state of play up to December 1. Then if look at last night's SES numbers - which correspond to the EKOS sampling time frame, you see that the EKOS ones are even farther out of whack or vice versa.
Maybe it's just that pesky margin of error thing. There's a more likely explanation, although the Conservative number is a teensy bit outside that range.
Then there's the issue of trending. The EKOS poll shows the Conservatives on a downward trend; SES has them moving upward, likely reflecting the first week of non-stop announcements.
In the regional numbers, and even allowing for the large margins of error involved in the national ones, all available polling shows similar pictures.
The Conservatives are ahead only in Alberta. They trail everywhere else, and in some cases, like Atlantic Canada, they are almost 20 points behind the Liberals. In Ontario, often described by lazy commentators as "vote-rich", the Conservatives a significantly behind the Liberals even at this stage and after a week of announcements that seem to have given the party a bump overall.
Flip along the EKOS poll and you'll seem some food for thought in the issues questions and in the demographic breakdowns of party support.
On page 23 of the EKOS background report you'll find a really telling number, however, and that is the stated expectation of respondents on who will win the election, irrespective of their own party preference.
Fully 64% of respondents expected the Liberals to win, compared to 18% for the Conservatives. Since April of this year, the gap between those two party expectations has continued to grow.
There is still plenty of desire for a new governing party, but that isn't reflected in any of the other positions.
For example, Paul Martin is viewed by EKOS respondents as the best person to lead the country and he is in the lead by a substantial margin everywhere except Quebec and Alberta.
Each poll offers a wealth of information. The key is to know how to read it properly.
The one thing both EKOS and SES seem to agree on is that the election is similar to the overall responses in 2004. I tend to agree with SES this evening that the race is trimming down to a two-way contest - Jack Layton's bus has developed a serious mechanical problem, with bits flying off at every turn.
Byrne out?
Check the Telegram ad for Loyola Hearn when you pick up the Saturday paper today.
Missing from the photo:
Kilbride member of the House and provincial natural resources minister Ed Byrne.
The young guy touted as a likely successor to the Old Guy from Renews is conspicuous by his absence.
The absence is almost as noticeable as the dyspeptic looks on the faces of some of the provincial Tories who are now apparently supporting, among other things, the guy who wants to bring back the equal marriage debate and the guy who told Danny Williams, politely, to get stuffed, in writing when Danny asked for a reworking of the Atlantic Accord.
Missing from the photo:
Kilbride member of the House and provincial natural resources minister Ed Byrne.
The young guy touted as a likely successor to the Old Guy from Renews is conspicuous by his absence.
The absence is almost as noticeable as the dyspeptic looks on the faces of some of the provincial Tories who are now apparently supporting, among other things, the guy who wants to bring back the equal marriage debate and the guy who told Danny Williams, politely, to get stuffed, in writing when Danny asked for a reworking of the Atlantic Accord.
Star candidate of the 1980s
Loyola Hearn's website is still lost in cyberspace. We are at the end of the first week of campaigning.
Guess he's too busy down at his house in Renews or coaxing provincial members of the House of Assembly to pose for print ads to get the website back online.
Guess he's too busy down at his house in Renews or coaxing provincial members of the House of Assembly to pose for print ads to get the website back online.
Bond right about Wells
Way back in July, when Andy Wells first leaked the story that Danny Williams had put him up as a propspective chair of the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Board, the Bond Papers pointed out the guy wouldn't be getting job.
After months of speculation but other people, turns out the Bond Papers got it right.
Read the story below by Terry Roberts, at The Telegram. It is again reprinted in full, below so that an electronic version won't disappear.
Max Ruelokke is eminently qualified for the job in so many ways. He's the calibre of candidate Andy was up against and, while Andy is good for a lot of other things, in this case, the man was outclassed by every single name that has been mentioned.
Including Leslie Galway, who, oddly, Premier Wells felt didn't have the stuff to run the province's offshore regulator for more cash than she is currently making running his rump of a department.
Then in one of the most bizarre of appointment suggestsions - before Joan Cleary to run Bull Arm - the premier touted Andy Wells to run the offshore board. The goal was simple, according to Danny Williams: to get more benefits for this province from the offshore, with Andy Wells to fight for those benefits through the offshore board.
The problem with the premier's argument was equally simple: as Danny Williams himself admitted later on, the offshore board doesn't negotiate or otherwise set local benefits. Danny does.
So here we are, all the months later, on the eve of the Prime Minister's visit to St. John's and someone leaks the decision apparently reached by panel appointed to find a new chair for the offshore board.
How curious. I wonder who'll be looking for time in the PM's agenda for Monday?
Count on this issue to come up tomorrow at a forum sponsored by CBC Radio's The Current, in which the Mayor of Sin Jawn's is a panelist...
Saturday, December 3, 2005
Wells comes up dry
By Terry Roberts - The Telegram
Left - Andy Wells
It appears there won'’t be a shakeup at St. John'’s City Hall after all.
After months of speculation and controversy, The Telegram has learned that Mayor Andy Wells has been passed over for the position of chairman and chief executive officer of the federal-provincial board that regulates the province'’s offshore oil and gas industry.
In a surprising twist, a joint selection panel led by prominent businessman Harry Steele has instead offered the post to Max Ruelokke, a former deputy minister of mines and energy with the provincial government in the 1990s.
Sources say Wells, who was publicly endorsed by Premier Danny Williams for the job, has been offered the position of vice-chairman.
It'’s not clear whether he will accept the secondary role with the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board (CNLOPB), but there'’s speculation the decision may touch off another row between the federal and provincial governments.
The premier'’s spokeswoman, Elizabeth Matthews, said Williams would not be commenting while the selection process was ongoing.
But sources say Williams is fuming over the decision and may confront Prime Minister Paul Martin on the issue during his campaign visit to St. John'’s Monday.
If so, it would be reminiscent of 2004, when Williams battled Ottawa over changes to the Atlantic Accord oil revenue sharing agreement.
After months of bitter negotiations, the dispute ended with the federal government agreeing to pay $2 billion in upfront money to the province.
It'’s believed Ruelokke, who has worked in the private sector since leaving government in 1998, was a compromise between Rex Gibbons, the federal government'’s choice for the job, and Wells, who was favoured by the province.
Gibbons has a Ph.D in geology and served as a Liberal MHA for the district of St. John'’s West from 1989 to '’97.
He is a former minister of mines and energy and was once the province'’s representative on the CNLOPB.
Ruelokke, a civil engineer and Grand Bank native, ran the Marystown Shipyard and the Bull Arm fabrication site, and comes with an intimate knowledge of this province'’s oil and gas industry.
He is currently the general manager of East Coast operations for AMEC Oil and Gas Ltd., an English company that provides engineering, procurement and construction management services to offshore oil and gas projects.
Neither Wells nor Ruelokke would confirm anything when contacted Friday.
"“I have no comment,"” said Wells, who planned to resign as mayor if given the job, which pays roughly $200,000 annually.
Wells has served on city council since 1977, and was re-elected to his third term as mayor on Sept. 27.
He has often been critical of various oil companies over their level of investment in the province, and his nomination for the job is said to have been strongly opposed by those in the industry.
Ruelokke acknowledged he was interviewed for the job this week, but sounded surprised to hear he was a leading candidate when contacted by The Telegram Friday morning.
"“I assumed I was one of a number of people who had interviews and didn'’t make any assumptions beyond that, really,"” said Ruelokke, who chaired an offshore petroleum engineering task force established by the former Liberal provincial government in 1998.
The process of selecting a new chair and CEO began making headlines last July after it was revealed that Wells was the province'’s first choice for the job.
Then-natural resources minister John Efford quickly weighed in, saying Wells did not make the short list of an independent head-hunting firm that had been seeking out potential candidates.
Both sides eventually agreed to appoint a joint selection committee.
Steele, chairman of Newfoundland Capital Corp. Ltd., was joined on the committee by a pair of government appointees - — Wayne Thistle for the Government of Canada and Dean MacDonald for the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador.
Steele was the mutual choice of Thistle and MacDonald.
It'’s not known how many candidates made the short list, but several interviews took place last week.
Ruelokke said if he were given the job, politics would not play a role.
"“'I'’ve never been involved in organized politics in my life,"” he said.
troberts@thetelegram.com
After months of speculation but other people, turns out the Bond Papers got it right.
Read the story below by Terry Roberts, at The Telegram. It is again reprinted in full, below so that an electronic version won't disappear.
Max Ruelokke is eminently qualified for the job in so many ways. He's the calibre of candidate Andy was up against and, while Andy is good for a lot of other things, in this case, the man was outclassed by every single name that has been mentioned.
Including Leslie Galway, who, oddly, Premier Wells felt didn't have the stuff to run the province's offshore regulator for more cash than she is currently making running his rump of a department.
Then in one of the most bizarre of appointment suggestsions - before Joan Cleary to run Bull Arm - the premier touted Andy Wells to run the offshore board. The goal was simple, according to Danny Williams: to get more benefits for this province from the offshore, with Andy Wells to fight for those benefits through the offshore board.
The problem with the premier's argument was equally simple: as Danny Williams himself admitted later on, the offshore board doesn't negotiate or otherwise set local benefits. Danny does.
So here we are, all the months later, on the eve of the Prime Minister's visit to St. John's and someone leaks the decision apparently reached by panel appointed to find a new chair for the offshore board.
How curious. I wonder who'll be looking for time in the PM's agenda for Monday?
Count on this issue to come up tomorrow at a forum sponsored by CBC Radio's The Current, in which the Mayor of Sin Jawn's is a panelist...
Saturday, December 3, 2005Wells comes up dry
By Terry Roberts - The Telegram
Left - Andy Wells
It appears there won'’t be a shakeup at St. John'’s City Hall after all.
After months of speculation and controversy, The Telegram has learned that Mayor Andy Wells has been passed over for the position of chairman and chief executive officer of the federal-provincial board that regulates the province'’s offshore oil and gas industry.
In a surprising twist, a joint selection panel led by prominent businessman Harry Steele has instead offered the post to Max Ruelokke, a former deputy minister of mines and energy with the provincial government in the 1990s.
Sources say Wells, who was publicly endorsed by Premier Danny Williams for the job, has been offered the position of vice-chairman.
It'’s not clear whether he will accept the secondary role with the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board (CNLOPB), but there'’s speculation the decision may touch off another row between the federal and provincial governments.
The premier'’s spokeswoman, Elizabeth Matthews, said Williams would not be commenting while the selection process was ongoing.
But sources say Williams is fuming over the decision and may confront Prime Minister Paul Martin on the issue during his campaign visit to St. John'’s Monday.
If so, it would be reminiscent of 2004, when Williams battled Ottawa over changes to the Atlantic Accord oil revenue sharing agreement.
After months of bitter negotiations, the dispute ended with the federal government agreeing to pay $2 billion in upfront money to the province.
It'’s believed Ruelokke, who has worked in the private sector since leaving government in 1998, was a compromise between Rex Gibbons, the federal government'’s choice for the job, and Wells, who was favoured by the province.
Gibbons has a Ph.D in geology and served as a Liberal MHA for the district of St. John'’s West from 1989 to '’97.
He is a former minister of mines and energy and was once the province'’s representative on the CNLOPB.
Ruelokke, a civil engineer and Grand Bank native, ran the Marystown Shipyard and the Bull Arm fabrication site, and comes with an intimate knowledge of this province'’s oil and gas industry.
He is currently the general manager of East Coast operations for AMEC Oil and Gas Ltd., an English company that provides engineering, procurement and construction management services to offshore oil and gas projects.
Neither Wells nor Ruelokke would confirm anything when contacted Friday.
"“I have no comment,"” said Wells, who planned to resign as mayor if given the job, which pays roughly $200,000 annually.
Wells has served on city council since 1977, and was re-elected to his third term as mayor on Sept. 27.
He has often been critical of various oil companies over their level of investment in the province, and his nomination for the job is said to have been strongly opposed by those in the industry.
Ruelokke acknowledged he was interviewed for the job this week, but sounded surprised to hear he was a leading candidate when contacted by The Telegram Friday morning.
"“I assumed I was one of a number of people who had interviews and didn'’t make any assumptions beyond that, really,"” said Ruelokke, who chaired an offshore petroleum engineering task force established by the former Liberal provincial government in 1998.
The process of selecting a new chair and CEO began making headlines last July after it was revealed that Wells was the province'’s first choice for the job.
Then-natural resources minister John Efford quickly weighed in, saying Wells did not make the short list of an independent head-hunting firm that had been seeking out potential candidates.
Both sides eventually agreed to appoint a joint selection committee.
Steele, chairman of Newfoundland Capital Corp. Ltd., was joined on the committee by a pair of government appointees - — Wayne Thistle for the Government of Canada and Dean MacDonald for the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador.
Steele was the mutual choice of Thistle and MacDonald.
It'’s not known how many candidates made the short list, but several interviews took place last week.
Ruelokke said if he were given the job, politics would not play a role.
"“'I'’ve never been involved in organized politics in my life,"” he said.
troberts@thetelegram.com
The smell of fear
Check out the telegram today on page A5.
Bottom of the page.
Big ad by Loyola Hearn with the headline "Provincial MHA's endorse Loyola Hearn".
There's Loyola in a posed picture surrounded by all the Conservative House member's from within his riding. There's even Loyola Sullivan looking a tad like something's up his backside that shouldn't be there, and Speaker Harvey Hodder.
There's two things about this ad that scream Loyola's fear of losing:
1. Last time out, Loyola couldn't get the endorsement of any Tories. People wouldn't work for him.
Then after the whole thing was over, Loyola got into a pissing match with Danny.
2. The ad talks about "Standing up for Newfoundland and Labrador".
Here's Loyola's record on the offshore:
1985 - As cabinet minister in Peckford, voted in favour of what he would later denounce as revenue clawbacks for Equalization.
2004 - Issues householder at taxpayer expense with factual errors about deal he voted for in 1985.
2005 - Encouraged to vote for offshore deal and put province before party
2005 - Gets exceedingly pissy when people expect him to live up to the same standards he used to politically bludgeon others.
2005 - In the final votes, supports the offshore bill and then votes to bring down the government. Hearn voted for the Province before he voted against it.
When choosing between party and province, Hearn chose party.
He took Harper over Hamlyn Road.
I smell fear in St. John's South-Mount Pearl. And it's coming from the little fellow from Renews.
I wonder if this time he will be willing to debate his opponents.
Bottom of the page.
Big ad by Loyola Hearn with the headline "Provincial MHA's endorse Loyola Hearn".
There's Loyola in a posed picture surrounded by all the Conservative House member's from within his riding. There's even Loyola Sullivan looking a tad like something's up his backside that shouldn't be there, and Speaker Harvey Hodder.
There's two things about this ad that scream Loyola's fear of losing:
1. Last time out, Loyola couldn't get the endorsement of any Tories. People wouldn't work for him.
Then after the whole thing was over, Loyola got into a pissing match with Danny.
2. The ad talks about "Standing up for Newfoundland and Labrador".
Here's Loyola's record on the offshore:
1985 - As cabinet minister in Peckford, voted in favour of what he would later denounce as revenue clawbacks for Equalization.
2004 - Issues householder at taxpayer expense with factual errors about deal he voted for in 1985.
2005 - Encouraged to vote for offshore deal and put province before party
2005 - Gets exceedingly pissy when people expect him to live up to the same standards he used to politically bludgeon others.
2005 - In the final votes, supports the offshore bill and then votes to bring down the government. Hearn voted for the Province before he voted against it.
When choosing between party and province, Hearn chose party.
He took Harper over Hamlyn Road.
I smell fear in St. John's South-Mount Pearl. And it's coming from the little fellow from Renews.
I wonder if this time he will be willing to debate his opponents.
GST rebate update 2
3 down (the traditional morning cup)
19, 997 to go.
Me and my kidneys are with ya there, buddy.
It's like one of those Depression era dance marathons or some crap that you'd see on Fear Factor.
Drink 20, 000 cups of coffee and see if you can win 400 bucks.
19, 997 to go.
Me and my kidneys are with ya there, buddy.
It's like one of those Depression era dance marathons or some crap that you'd see on Fear Factor.
Drink 20, 000 cups of coffee and see if you can win 400 bucks.
02 December 2005
Layton and Hargrove at loggerheads for same space
Check this out.
Buzz Hargrove warns people to vote Liberal where the New Democrats are third, in order to stop the Connies.
Jack Layton, who scarcely 24 hours ago said the same thing in eastern Ontario, criticizes Buzz.
The noise you hear, still, is NDP candidate Peg Norman - the distant third in St.John's South-Mount Pearl, banging her head against the wall.
For the second day in a row.
In the race to see who is going to emerg first, I am guessing my kidneys are stronger than anyone's head.
Buzz Hargrove warns people to vote Liberal where the New Democrats are third, in order to stop the Connies.
Jack Layton, who scarcely 24 hours ago said the same thing in eastern Ontario, criticizes Buzz.
The noise you hear, still, is NDP candidate Peg Norman - the distant third in St.John's South-Mount Pearl, banging her head against the wall.
For the second day in a row.
In the race to see who is going to emerg first, I am guessing my kidneys are stronger than anyone's head.
The first SES rolling poll results of the campaign
The first poll by SES Research for the Canadian Parliamentary Affairs Channel (CPAC) shows the Liberals with the support of 37% of decided voters, up from 34% on the day the campaign started. The Conservatives are steady at 29% with the New Democrats dropping from 20% to 15%.
Margin of error for the national figures is 3.1% at the 95 percentile confidence interval.
The regional figures open up much wider margins of error and therefore are less reliable in indicating voter choices.
SES has developed a leadership index for ranking opinions of party leaders as to trust, competence and vision for Canada.
Paul Martin's cumulative score on the index is 84, compared to 58 for Stephen Harper, 39 for Gilles Duceppe and 25 for Jack Layton. The margin of error in each of the three categories is plus or minus 5%, therefore making the changes within the individual categories thus far statistically insignificant, even though on the cumulative score, Martin's number has gone from 76 on Monday to 84 on the last day on which polling data was collected. Martin is the only leader to have increased his leadership index by more than 5 %.
Margin of error for the national figures is 3.1% at the 95 percentile confidence interval.
The regional figures open up much wider margins of error and therefore are less reliable in indicating voter choices.
SES has developed a leadership index for ranking opinions of party leaders as to trust, competence and vision for Canada.
Paul Martin's cumulative score on the index is 84, compared to 58 for Stephen Harper, 39 for Gilles Duceppe and 25 for Jack Layton. The margin of error in each of the three categories is plus or minus 5%, therefore making the changes within the individual categories thus far statistically insignificant, even though on the cumulative score, Martin's number has gone from 76 on Monday to 84 on the last day on which polling data was collected. Martin is the only leader to have increased his leadership index by more than 5 %.
GST rebate update 1
Two down.
Only 19, 998 to go in my bid to do what it takes to get $400 in GST rebates, should Stephen Harper make the leap to 24 Sussex Drive.
A large coffee at Tim's would go from the current local price of $1.50 to $1.48 under Harper's proposal.
Total GST savings on Day 1: four cents.
The bugger really wants my kidneys to work for the cash.
Only 19, 998 to go in my bid to do what it takes to get $400 in GST rebates, should Stephen Harper make the leap to 24 Sussex Drive.
A large coffee at Tim's would go from the current local price of $1.50 to $1.48 under Harper's proposal.
Total GST savings on Day 1: four cents.
The bugger really wants my kidneys to work for the cash.
Brave Soldier Hearn
There are some awfully funny comments from Conservative candidate Loyola Hearn is the following story from The Telegram.
Ordinarily, the story would have focused on the poll by Corporate Research Associates (CRA) showing the Liberals with a commanding lead in in Atlantic Canada and in this province in the federal election. The story would also have drawn big attention to the fact that the CRA poll found that Prime Minister Paul Martin is the party leader preferred by most Newfoundlanders and Labradorians. Obviously, CRA didn't poll Liam O'Brien.
Anyway, the funny bits are the ones where Loyola Hearn wants us all to believe that the poll is crap - it isn't - and that the federal Conservatives have a shot at winning John Efford's old seat in Avalon.
It's funny because Loyola should be focused on winning his own seat rather than fretting over who is going to represent the riding in which he lives.
It's funny because when Loyola says Efford had a free ride previously, Hearn is actually the guy who gave it to him. When faced with a choice as to which part of his old riding he wanted to represent in Ottawa, the supposed Connie heavyweight opted to run in St. John's and Mount Pearl. He thought he'd have an easy ride of it, himself.
Reality proved starkly different.
Everyone else has marked his riding as being definitely in play, a swing seat, likely to turn over even, because Mr. Hearn's margin of victory last time was less than 9% of the vote. Some contend it was less than 5% but I'll stick to my new number.
It was the toughest political fight of Hearn's life and Hearn's less than generous comments in victory attest to how much the former Brian Peckford cabinet minister was pissed off.
Then, to make matters worse, Hearn got trapped in the spring Harper effort to defeat the government. Tons of e-mails poured in demanding Hearn vote in favour of the offshore deal and put partisan issues aside. "Put province before party" they demanded.
The Connie reply was to vote in favour of the bill containing the offshore deal, before they then voted to bring down the government on another motion.
Faced with the choice, Hearn picked Harper over Hamilton Avenue and his choice may continue to haunt him.
And the bruised politician started musing about taking up fishing and giving up the political racket. As he told CBC News, "[h]ow long more to you stay around? That's the point...Another year from now, I might decide that I might want to go trouting too, you know."
For the record, here is the full Telegram story by Jamie Baker.
I am taking the risk of reprinting from their website since there is no permanent link I can use and after a couple of days this story will vanish from the Internet.
Friday, December 2, 2005
Battleground Avalon
By JAMIE BAKER, The Telegram page 1, above the fold.
A new poll predicts the Liberals would sweep all seven ridings in Newfoundland and Labrador if an election were held today, but that isn't dashing any Conservative hopes, especially in Avalon, where the party is promising a changing of the guard.
St. John'’s South-Mount Pearl Conservative incumbent Loyola Hearn dismisses the poll and says Avalon, the riding held by retiring Liberal cabinet minister John Efford, is ripe for the picking.
The three Liberal nominees for the riding are former provincial cabinet minister Art Reid, lawyer Bill Morrow and Avondale deputy mayor Bern Hickey. Hearn said he expects his party will announce its candidate -— it is rumoured provincial Independent PC MHA Fabian Manning is among those interested -— within a matter of days.
Targeted campaign
The riding is among the 20 across Canada targeted by the Conservatives as potentially winnable.
"We will win that riding," Hearn predicted, adding he believes even Efford could have been toppled at the height of his popularity had the challenges been more substantial.
"Efford had a free ride," he said.
"When he ran in the byelection, we ran Michelle Brazil against him, with no organization, nothing and she got 20-odd per cent of the vote. The last time we had a guy come into the campaign, again, with no organization, no money, he had never been involved in anything public like that — and he took 31 per cent of the vote."
"Imagine what a well-known person could have done,— and Efford was riding high at the time."
Avalon's Liberal riding president Stephen Crocker isn't convinced voters will act against the party out of displeasure over Efford's recent political troubles, which began in the heat of the Atlantic Accord battle.
In fact, Crocker is convinced they will look to Efford's list of federal accomplishments as a sign of what the party can do -— and has done -— for the riding.
"I don't think Mr. Efford's legacy was totally negative -— Mr. Efford did a lot of good stuff in his time in politics and I think that is what people will remember, "Crocker said. "The key to winning Avalon, obviously, is a strong campaign and getting the message out to people on where the party stands, where it has been and where it is going.”
If the recent poll conducted by Corporate Research Associates Inc. is to be believed, where the Liberals are going is, apparently, up.
Besides taking all seven seats in this province, the poll has the Liberals taking 25 of 32 seats in Atlantic Canada -— five seats are forecasted for the Conservatives and two for the NDP.
The numbers also show if the election were held now, 46 per cent of Atlantic Canadians said they would vote for the Liberals, 27 per cent Conservative, 18 per cent NDP, 16 per cent were undecided, and 10 per cent had no response or didn'‚’t plan to vote.
Province more Liberal: poll
In Newfoundland, the numbers were even more Liberal, with 50 per cent preferring the Liberals, 29 per cent Conservative and 10 per cent NDP with 19 per cent undecided ‚— those numbers are almost exactly the same as they were in a May 2004 poll conducted in this province prior to the last federal election.
Fifty-one per cent of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians also said they were very or mostly satisfied with the performance of the Martin government, up six per cent from May 2004; 39 per cent were either mostly or completely dissatisfied.
As far as leadership is concerned, 41 per cent of Atlantic Canadians prefer Paul Martin as prime minister compared to just 19 per cent for Stephen Harper and 17 per cent for Jack Layton.
In Newfoundland and Labrador, Martin attracted 44 per cent preference compared to 20 and 15 per cent respectively for Harper and Layton.
"That doesn't surprise me when you look at Mr. Harper's track record and where he stands on health care and so on," Crocker said. "I think health care is going to be a big issue in Avalon, and we all know Stephen Harper's record of supporting two-tier health care.”
With mostly rural areas in the riding, Hearn said attracting the right candidate would also be huge for any party's hopes of victory in ridings east of Montreal.
Unlike more urban areas where voters rarely know the candidate and vote based largely on policies and platforms, Hearn said the candidate is also very important when it comes to campaigning in Atlantic Canada.
"In Atlantic Canada, everybody knows who you are and if they don't know who you are, you'll be hard pressed to get the votes," Hearn observed. "That's why you need reasonably good candidates, someone who is known and well respected. It is very seldom you will see a well established individual doing poorly in an election."
"Voters want solid representation, somebody they know they can trust and somebody they know will do the work for them in Ottawa. Check the public record, Hansard, even watch CPAC, and you'll have an idea who's doing what for the province -— we have not been well-represented by a number of Liberals."”
While Hearn sees Avalon, his own district and St. John's East as potential winners for his party, the big battles, he said, will be getting the right people to take on a couple of other longtime Liberal incumbents Bill Matthews and Gerry Byrne.
"The challenge is really out there in Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte and Random-Burin-St. George's to have some good solid people come forward," Hearn said. "We have a great chance of forming government, and an extra seat or two in Newfoundland could be all it takes."
jbaker@thetelegram.com
Ordinarily, the story would have focused on the poll by Corporate Research Associates (CRA) showing the Liberals with a commanding lead in in Atlantic Canada and in this province in the federal election. The story would also have drawn big attention to the fact that the CRA poll found that Prime Minister Paul Martin is the party leader preferred by most Newfoundlanders and Labradorians. Obviously, CRA didn't poll Liam O'Brien.
Anyway, the funny bits are the ones where Loyola Hearn wants us all to believe that the poll is crap - it isn't - and that the federal Conservatives have a shot at winning John Efford's old seat in Avalon.
It's funny because Loyola should be focused on winning his own seat rather than fretting over who is going to represent the riding in which he lives.
It's funny because when Loyola says Efford had a free ride previously, Hearn is actually the guy who gave it to him. When faced with a choice as to which part of his old riding he wanted to represent in Ottawa, the supposed Connie heavyweight opted to run in St. John's and Mount Pearl. He thought he'd have an easy ride of it, himself.
Reality proved starkly different.
Everyone else has marked his riding as being definitely in play, a swing seat, likely to turn over even, because Mr. Hearn's margin of victory last time was less than 9% of the vote. Some contend it was less than 5% but I'll stick to my new number.
It was the toughest political fight of Hearn's life and Hearn's less than generous comments in victory attest to how much the former Brian Peckford cabinet minister was pissed off.
Then, to make matters worse, Hearn got trapped in the spring Harper effort to defeat the government. Tons of e-mails poured in demanding Hearn vote in favour of the offshore deal and put partisan issues aside. "Put province before party" they demanded.
The Connie reply was to vote in favour of the bill containing the offshore deal, before they then voted to bring down the government on another motion.
Faced with the choice, Hearn picked Harper over Hamilton Avenue and his choice may continue to haunt him.
And the bruised politician started musing about taking up fishing and giving up the political racket. As he told CBC News, "[h]ow long more to you stay around? That's the point...Another year from now, I might decide that I might want to go trouting too, you know."
For the record, here is the full Telegram story by Jamie Baker.
I am taking the risk of reprinting from their website since there is no permanent link I can use and after a couple of days this story will vanish from the Internet.
Friday, December 2, 2005
Battleground Avalon
By JAMIE BAKER, The Telegram page 1, above the fold.
A new poll predicts the Liberals would sweep all seven ridings in Newfoundland and Labrador if an election were held today, but that isn't dashing any Conservative hopes, especially in Avalon, where the party is promising a changing of the guard.
St. John'’s South-Mount Pearl Conservative incumbent Loyola Hearn dismisses the poll and says Avalon, the riding held by retiring Liberal cabinet minister John Efford, is ripe for the picking.
The three Liberal nominees for the riding are former provincial cabinet minister Art Reid, lawyer Bill Morrow and Avondale deputy mayor Bern Hickey. Hearn said he expects his party will announce its candidate -— it is rumoured provincial Independent PC MHA Fabian Manning is among those interested -— within a matter of days.
Targeted campaign
The riding is among the 20 across Canada targeted by the Conservatives as potentially winnable.
"We will win that riding," Hearn predicted, adding he believes even Efford could have been toppled at the height of his popularity had the challenges been more substantial.
"Efford had a free ride," he said.
"When he ran in the byelection, we ran Michelle Brazil against him, with no organization, nothing and she got 20-odd per cent of the vote. The last time we had a guy come into the campaign, again, with no organization, no money, he had never been involved in anything public like that — and he took 31 per cent of the vote."
"Imagine what a well-known person could have done,— and Efford was riding high at the time."
Avalon's Liberal riding president Stephen Crocker isn't convinced voters will act against the party out of displeasure over Efford's recent political troubles, which began in the heat of the Atlantic Accord battle.
In fact, Crocker is convinced they will look to Efford's list of federal accomplishments as a sign of what the party can do -— and has done -— for the riding.
"I don't think Mr. Efford's legacy was totally negative -— Mr. Efford did a lot of good stuff in his time in politics and I think that is what people will remember, "Crocker said. "The key to winning Avalon, obviously, is a strong campaign and getting the message out to people on where the party stands, where it has been and where it is going.”
If the recent poll conducted by Corporate Research Associates Inc. is to be believed, where the Liberals are going is, apparently, up.
Besides taking all seven seats in this province, the poll has the Liberals taking 25 of 32 seats in Atlantic Canada -— five seats are forecasted for the Conservatives and two for the NDP.
The numbers also show if the election were held now, 46 per cent of Atlantic Canadians said they would vote for the Liberals, 27 per cent Conservative, 18 per cent NDP, 16 per cent were undecided, and 10 per cent had no response or didn'‚’t plan to vote.
Province more Liberal: poll
In Newfoundland, the numbers were even more Liberal, with 50 per cent preferring the Liberals, 29 per cent Conservative and 10 per cent NDP with 19 per cent undecided ‚— those numbers are almost exactly the same as they were in a May 2004 poll conducted in this province prior to the last federal election.
Fifty-one per cent of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians also said they were very or mostly satisfied with the performance of the Martin government, up six per cent from May 2004; 39 per cent were either mostly or completely dissatisfied.
As far as leadership is concerned, 41 per cent of Atlantic Canadians prefer Paul Martin as prime minister compared to just 19 per cent for Stephen Harper and 17 per cent for Jack Layton.
In Newfoundland and Labrador, Martin attracted 44 per cent preference compared to 20 and 15 per cent respectively for Harper and Layton.
"That doesn't surprise me when you look at Mr. Harper's track record and where he stands on health care and so on," Crocker said. "I think health care is going to be a big issue in Avalon, and we all know Stephen Harper's record of supporting two-tier health care.”
With mostly rural areas in the riding, Hearn said attracting the right candidate would also be huge for any party's hopes of victory in ridings east of Montreal.
Unlike more urban areas where voters rarely know the candidate and vote based largely on policies and platforms, Hearn said the candidate is also very important when it comes to campaigning in Atlantic Canada.
"In Atlantic Canada, everybody knows who you are and if they don't know who you are, you'll be hard pressed to get the votes," Hearn observed. "That's why you need reasonably good candidates, someone who is known and well respected. It is very seldom you will see a well established individual doing poorly in an election."
"Voters want solid representation, somebody they know they can trust and somebody they know will do the work for them in Ottawa. Check the public record, Hansard, even watch CPAC, and you'll have an idea who's doing what for the province -— we have not been well-represented by a number of Liberals."”
While Hearn sees Avalon, his own district and St. John's East as potential winners for his party, the big battles, he said, will be getting the right people to take on a couple of other longtime Liberal incumbents Bill Matthews and Gerry Byrne.
"The challenge is really out there in Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte and Random-Burin-St. George's to have some good solid people come forward," Hearn said. "We have a great chance of forming government, and an extra seat or two in Newfoundland could be all it takes."
jbaker@thetelegram.com
Norm Doyle - CBC Radio news
Since there was no link available for the earlier posting on Norm Doyle, let me tell everyone that Norm backed the call for a free-vote on equal marriage in an interview with CBC Radio.
When I can get the quote and the story as a link, I'll post it.
In the meantime, be amused at the latest evidence that when someone has nothing constructive or factual to say, someone will just make stuff up.
Then read the post about the GST. Negative campaigning raised to a new high.
or is it low?
When I can get the quote and the story as a link, I'll post it.
In the meantime, be amused at the latest evidence that when someone has nothing constructive or factual to say, someone will just make stuff up.
Then read the post about the GST. Negative campaigning raised to a new high.
or is it low?
A large double double view
Canadians will get this really easily.
A large Timmies in Newfoundland and Labrador will set you back $1.50. That the Canadian standard - large, double double - and taking in the harmonized provincial and federal sales taxes.
If Stephen Harper is elected, my Timmies will go to $1.48, for a total savings of two friggin' cents a cup.
It will take 20, 000 cups of coffee to reach the $400 in GST savings Harper claims his proposal will plunk in my pocket.
I better get started.
That's a lot of coffee.
A large Timmies in Newfoundland and Labrador will set you back $1.50. That the Canadian standard - large, double double - and taking in the harmonized provincial and federal sales taxes.
If Stephen Harper is elected, my Timmies will go to $1.48, for a total savings of two friggin' cents a cup.
It will take 20, 000 cups of coffee to reach the $400 in GST savings Harper claims his proposal will plunk in my pocket.
I better get started.
That's a lot of coffee.
Cutting the GST - the Andrew Coyne view
Courtesy of Paul Wells, comes an old column by Andrew Coyne, arguing that cutting the GST is actually a bad idea.
Cut other taxes instead.
And while we are on it, here's a story from CBC Liam O'Brien won't be quoting any too soon. Economists are criticizing the GST cuts proposal.
There have been plenty of those stories.
Plus there have been positive stories quoting people in the restaurant business. Ok. But cutting the GST by two percent - five years from now - isn't going to do a single thing to put one more bum in one more seat in one more restaurant across Canada.
Think about it.
The proposed cuts will give me the kind of cash - 40 freakin' cents off a $20 meal tab - that make me feel like going down to cross the harbour here in St. John's and buy up a few newspapers.
And it will happen two full years after Harper gets elected.
And after Harper repeals equal marriage.
If he gets elected.
Cut other taxes instead.
And while we are on it, here's a story from CBC Liam O'Brien won't be quoting any too soon. Economists are criticizing the GST cuts proposal.
There have been plenty of those stories.
Plus there have been positive stories quoting people in the restaurant business. Ok. But cutting the GST by two percent - five years from now - isn't going to do a single thing to put one more bum in one more seat in one more restaurant across Canada.
Think about it.
The proposed cuts will give me the kind of cash - 40 freakin' cents off a $20 meal tab - that make me feel like going down to cross the harbour here in St. John's and buy up a few newspapers.
And it will happen two full years after Harper gets elected.
And after Harper repeals equal marriage.
If he gets elected.
Norm Doyle appears - or is it Homer?
The high- spending Connie candidate in St. John's East emerged today for the first time in a while.
His choice topic? Backing Stephen Harper in opposing equal marriage.
Shag the Constitution.
Shag the Supreme Court.
Shag equality.
Shag common sense and the fact we managed to put this issue behind us.
Norm and his boss, Stephen Harper want to re-open the debate on equal marriage.
Way to go Normie.
Where should we send the cheque for all your help?
His choice topic? Backing Stephen Harper in opposing equal marriage.
Shag the Constitution.
Shag the Supreme Court.
Shag equality.
Shag common sense and the fact we managed to put this issue behind us.
Norm and his boss, Stephen Harper want to re-open the debate on equal marriage.
Way to go Normie.
Where should we send the cheque for all your help?
CBC buggers the facts - swing seats
Hey guys, I know it's a challenge to run a website, but at least use the cut and paste.
St. John's South-Mount Pearl.
Connies took it by 8.9% last time.
That's below the 10% CBC is using to define a swing seat.
And if I recall correctly, CBC should also include St. John's North, which is now known once again as St. John's East. The margin in that neck of the local woods was damned close too.
Thanks to Liam O'Brien, official Connie propagandist on the Island for putting me on to this little error by the Ceeb. In his efforts to attack some of my earlier he comments, Liam tossed the CBC out as a source to contradict me on which seats are close.
D'oh!
The factually-challenged Connies were done in, in this instance, by someone else's dodgy facts. minor error, but as we have seen with Jason Kenney sometimes one can build an entire chunk of a campaign on stuff that is basically made up.
As my daughter used to say: "Oh deeuh".
St. John's South-Mount Pearl.
Connies took it by 8.9% last time.
That's below the 10% CBC is using to define a swing seat.
And if I recall correctly, CBC should also include St. John's North, which is now known once again as St. John's East. The margin in that neck of the local woods was damned close too.
Thanks to Liam O'Brien, official Connie propagandist on the Island for putting me on to this little error by the Ceeb. In his efforts to attack some of my earlier he comments, Liam tossed the CBC out as a source to contradict me on which seats are close.
D'oh!
The factually-challenged Connies were done in, in this instance, by someone else's dodgy facts. minor error, but as we have seen with Jason Kenney sometimes one can build an entire chunk of a campaign on stuff that is basically made up.
As my daughter used to say: "Oh deeuh".
01 December 2005
Has anyone seen Loyola?
No point in looking here.
Seems like the Man from Renews (about two hours drive outside the riding he represented in Ottawa) thinks he's still in the last campaign.
That's the one where he ducked every interview he could duck, refused to debate the other candidates and generally seemed to go over the fence for most of the campaign.
At one point, his opponents seriously considered sending out search parties.
His reward last time? The nearest run election of his life.
His reward this time? Maybe a federal pension to go with the provincial one he already collects.
Seems like the Man from Renews (about two hours drive outside the riding he represented in Ottawa) thinks he's still in the last campaign.
That's the one where he ducked every interview he could duck, refused to debate the other candidates and generally seemed to go over the fence for most of the campaign.
At one point, his opponents seriously considered sending out search parties.
His reward last time? The nearest run election of his life.
His reward this time? Maybe a federal pension to go with the provincial one he already collects.
When the leader undermines his own candidates
From nottawa, comes this set of comments by Jack Layton that by voting for third place candidates, voters can elect a Conservative instead.
Ok.
The math works in some ridings where Jack is ahead.
But in St. John's East and St.John's South-Mount Pearl, Jack seems to be working to get Liberals elected.
How odd.
Of course, there is no small irony in the fact that Jack pushed for this election so that, in some cases, like say eastern Newfoundland, he'll be electing candidates whose party is now committed to cracking open the equal marriage debate, yet again.
The noise you hear in Ottawa is Peg Norman pounding her head against the wall at her campaign office.
Ok.
The math works in some ridings where Jack is ahead.
But in St. John's East and St.John's South-Mount Pearl, Jack seems to be working to get Liberals elected.
How odd.
Of course, there is no small irony in the fact that Jack pushed for this election so that, in some cases, like say eastern Newfoundland, he'll be electing candidates whose party is now committed to cracking open the equal marriage debate, yet again.
The noise you hear in Ottawa is Peg Norman pounding her head against the wall at her campaign office.
More curious Connie math comments
Check here for a Canadian Press story on the math behind the proposed GST cut and some other comments on the Harper proposal.
But get a load of this section, in particular:
*"For an average family of four with an income of $60,000 a year, this would mean about $400 less in taxes - savings they will see every time they go to the gas station, the shopping mall or a restaurant," Harper said.
"When the GST cut is fully implemented, the total benefit will, of course, be much greater."
Liberals argued that the first-year savings would be closer to $250, basing their claims on Statistics Canada numbers that indicate a typical family earning $60,000 makes taxable purchases worth about $25,000 a year.
Such a family would have to spend upwards of $40,000 in order to realize $400 in savings in the first year - a number that's not unreasonable, the Conservatives countered.*
Ok. A combined family income of $60, 000 a year making $40,000 in GST-related purchases a year. That leaves only $20, 000 to pay provincial, federal and municipal taxes, Canadian Pension Plan contributions and Employment Insurance premiums, a few bucks for the pension and maybe some cash for the kid's education. Surely I've left something out.
Even if I haven't, then at the end of the five years, once the Stephen Harper GST cut comes through, I'll have an extra $400 in cash. That's 0.6% of the gross annual income of this fictitious family.
Move over Donald Trump.
But get a load of this section, in particular:
*"For an average family of four with an income of $60,000 a year, this would mean about $400 less in taxes - savings they will see every time they go to the gas station, the shopping mall or a restaurant," Harper said.
"When the GST cut is fully implemented, the total benefit will, of course, be much greater."
Liberals argued that the first-year savings would be closer to $250, basing their claims on Statistics Canada numbers that indicate a typical family earning $60,000 makes taxable purchases worth about $25,000 a year.
Such a family would have to spend upwards of $40,000 in order to realize $400 in savings in the first year - a number that's not unreasonable, the Conservatives countered.*
Ok. A combined family income of $60, 000 a year making $40,000 in GST-related purchases a year. That leaves only $20, 000 to pay provincial, federal and municipal taxes, Canadian Pension Plan contributions and Employment Insurance premiums, a few bucks for the pension and maybe some cash for the kid's education. Surely I've left something out.
Even if I haven't, then at the end of the five years, once the Stephen Harper GST cut comes through, I'll have an extra $400 in cash. That's 0.6% of the gross annual income of this fictitious family.
Move over Donald Trump.
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