Change versus more of the same

While former Liberal cabinet minister Walter Noel does his part to support the victim mythology of Newfoundland nationalism, perhaps he should consider a new approach to economic development and Newfoundland and Labrador's economic place in the world.

Noel's problem appears to be with Newfoundland and Labrador's balance of trade.

He identifies the solution to a general economic problem as being more federal transfer payments. Right problem. Wrong solution.

All that Noel succeeds in doing is demonstrating how the current administration and the one Noel served in are fundamentally the same. Heck, the current administration offers the same answers that have never worked for administration after administration since Confederation.

Like that's worked.

The idea outlined in this op-ed piece from the Toronto Star is increased inter-provincial free trade. In other words, open up the opportunities for Newfoundland and Labrador companies to do business in the rest of Canada. Rather than building barriers, Newfoundland and Labrador needs to open the doors.

Since Confederation, Canadians have been hampered by an inter-provincial distrust of the power of free markets to produce economic and social benefits.

As a result, federalism has evolved into an inefficient system of provincial and municipal enclaves of economic autonomy. Provincial economic independence has created an interprovincial trading system that hampers productivity through barriers that curb the flow of goods and services.

These have impeded Canada's evolution from a middle to a modern power.

Canada cannot hope to compete globally when we have the kind of barriers to internal trade we have now.

There's a similar idea in this study by the Economist Intelligence Unit.

More of the same won't work.

It's time for Newfoundland and Labrador to change.

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Caille as a Conservative candidate: interest and implications

Offal News hits apparently spiked Monday with a post on the possibility that former Hydro Quebec boss Andre Caille will run for the Conservatives in the next federal general election.

This prospect may have implications for Newfoundland and Labrador, as Simon Lono suggests. Some additional clues to the prospective candidacy may come from commentaries such as this one in l'actualite.

If nothing else, Lono has raised a provocative issue based on what appears to have been a passing reference by a noted Quebec journalist.

Laying the ground work for separation, one egg at a time

When he said anybody, Danny literally meant he'd take on anybody not acting in the best interests of Newfoundland and Labrador. [h/t to Offal News]

Headin' down the road, 2007 version

Greg Locke has been blogging his move to Alberta.

Find the latest entry here, which morphs quickly into a discussion about the high percentage of people leaving the province who hold university degrees and other specialized training. The chart, above, is from a slide presentation done in the mid 1990s. Note that university degree-holders have consistently been the largest proportion of migrants from Newfoundland and Labrador since the mid 1970s at least.

The slide was originally presented in this post on outmigration.

How much is enough?

1. Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, own source revenue, 1992: $1.7 billion
Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, own source revenue, 2006: $3.2 billion

2. Government of Canada transfers to Gov NL, 1992: $1.4 billion
Government of Canada transfers to Gov NL, 2006: $1.5 billion

3. Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, per capita expenditure, 1992: $5574
Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, per capita expenditure, 2006: $8675

Note: Population, 1991: 574,000
Population, 2006: 509,000

A humourous reminder

Sometimes it's easy to forget how many times we've heard the same old arguments from the provincial government, especially when it comes to Equalization and offshore revenues.

Like this post from last October.

Last year, Danny Williams was telling us that the O'Brien formula would cost the province cash compared to what was in place at the time.

Not compared to the Harper promise.

Compared to the status quo ante.

Turns out that wasn't true, at least if you accept Wade Locke's precis.

The status quo was worth $18 billion. The O'Brien deal was worth $24 billion.

But think about it: in 2005 we were told that Danny Williams had inked a deal which was bullet proof against changes in Equalization. He got it. He told us he got it.

Apparently not.

So when will Danny Williams be fighting Danny Williams?

St. Lawrence native among the dead

Kevin Kennedy, right [Photo: Canadian Forces Combat Camera] is among the six soldiers killed in Afghanistan by an improvised explosive device in Afghanistan.

Kennedy was a private soldier with Second Battalion, the Royal Canadian Regiment, based in Gagetown, New Brunswick.

Update: A second soldier from Newfoundland and Labrador has been identified among the six dead in Afghanistan.

Sergeant Donald Lucas, left, was originally from St. John's.

Six soldiers killed in Afghanistan

Six soldiers from the Royal Canadian Regiment battle group in Afghanistan were killed today and two were injured in a roadside bomb explosion.

Update: 2350 NDT. DND releases names of five of the six dead.

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The king is dead

Cartoonist Johnny Hart, who created such strips as B.C. and The Wizard of Id, died Saturday at his home in New York state, of an apparent stroke.

He was 76.

Is the goal a 1948 do-over referendum?

The National Post this Easter weekend contains a little profile of Premier Danny Williams.

There are a few factual errors, but nothing that undermines the core point of the piece. Overall, there is a summary of the current state of the erstwhile nation of Dannyland. The picture isn't good. There's no way to make it good and it is the branding of this province as Dannyland that ultimately undermines whatever the triffid logo thing could possibly do.

A look at Newfoundland's history through a local lens explains why Mr. Williams' attacks on big business and Ottawa play so well around the kitchen tables of Gander and Corner Brook. Dragged into Confederation by the narrowest margin, the formerly independent colony has been rewarded with collapsed cod stocks, a hydro deal that virtually donates electricity to Quebec (which resells it to Americans for a tidy profit), two generations of talented young people decamping for work in Alberta and elsewhere, and the largest per capita debt and highest unemployment in Canada.

Cynics outside the province might suggest Newfoundlanders had something to do with bad economic planning, but locally, says Mr. [John] Crosbie, the feeling is "we're always being outsmarted and done in by mainlanders."

Since this piece was written by a mainlander, he can be forgiven for assuming every single person on what the Post calls The Rock - a word destined to join the other "n" word on the list of banned ethnic slurs - buys into the nationalist mythology on which the latest caudillo thrives.

Rick Mercer, no longer living here, can also be forgiven for mistaking the appearance of near-unanimity back home as a sign that there is, in fact, near unanimous agreement with the Premier's goals even if there is a quibble about tactics. If we define the goal as motherhood and blueberry duff, then that would be true.

But it isn't the goal and so there are growing questions that run deeper than the correctness of the Premier's rant-du-jour. What exactly is this "fair share" Williams keeps talking about? What would a better deal on oil or Confederation look like so we can help spot it when it shows up? Williams himself apparently has no idea and so Newfoundlanders and Labradorians increasingly wonder what he is up to.

Is he planning to create the climate in which the fall election will turn into a referendum on Confederation? Is the first townie premier to run the place since well before the townies put 'er up on the rocks in 1934 going to take give the nationalist townies a do-over on the 1948 referendum? Only his man in the Blue Line cab likely knows for sure.

Since we are on the subject of wider goals, Offal News returns to that issue today. The cause is confirmation from the oil industry that there are no talks going on with the provincial government regarding Hebron. It isn't like Simon Lono has said that before, and been right. it is that Williams has suggsted there were talks going on - yet again - and yet again, the facts are something else.

Once you are done there, take a glance at nottawa. Mark Watton notes - riffing on the Post piece - that Williams makes much of the idea that he is on a self-less mission of good, that he doesn't need the job of Premier because he is independently wealthy.

nottawa points out that anywhere else in the a country a federal politician who tried the same sanctimonious, self-serving line on the press gallery, they would - to use a local phrase - have his guts for garters. He's absolutely correct.

What the Post doesn't say, though, likely because of their interview subjects, is that the demagogues of post-Confederation Newfoundland all wound up chased from office in some measure of public disrepute. At the risk of blasphemy, the same people who threw palm fronds to line the path of their newest saviour were among the first to line his via dolorosa and jeer.

Smallwood.

Peckford.

Tobin.

It is a short list, distinguished by nothing else if only by the volume of spittle ejected by anyone mentioning their name these days.

Danny Williams knows it.

That's one of the reasons why he reputedly detests the comparisons to people like Smallwood.

That's why - only three years into his mandate, Williams has already announced he'll be packing it in soon. That's why he is hunting for some sort of legacy, some sort of brand, other than the one he has already claimed for himself.

It's too late of course.

On this Easter weekend, and in the religion of Newfoundland politics, we need only wonder who will be playing the role of Barabas in the latest version of the pageant.

The Cult of the Individual, Dannyland version

Spend any time publicly criticising the current administration and its policies and at some point, you are bound to hear from the Premier's personal supporters.

Your humble e-scribbler gets them once in a while.

They are predictable. There's no discussion of the facts at hand, rather there is puzzlement at why there is any criticism of Danny.

In the radio call-in version there are direct personal attacks on the critic's integrity and motives and continued suggestions that so-and-so is in the pay of one of Dannyland's foreign demons.

Lately, correspondents have taken to suggesting that perhaps you should run office since you've apparently got it all figured out.

Maybe some of us will. Maybe some of us won't. Some of us have alternatives. Some of us are just not so quick to join the nearest parade condemning the supposed foreign oppressor of the moment.

That's the marvelous thing about democracy.

It's called free speech.

While some politicians and their supporters may find it uncomfortable, it's what helps to keep powerful interests in check. It's what helps to promote peaceful change as opposed to the sort of political instability, abuse of public freedoms, and in some cases political violence that is found all to often in many of the countries high on the current administration's list of oil jurisdictions to emulate.

Telegram managing editor Russell Wangersky is on the receiving end of a letter in this Saturday's edition of the province's largest circulation daily. It follows a fairly typical approach:

It makes you want to laugh at those critics. Passiveness in politics will get you nowhere. Williams is taking a much-needed strong stand, simply put. Those who are complaining, for the most part, seem to be those who want Williams to shut up and go away, accept the deal offered after the contract. Complain as they may, I doubt it will faze him one bit.

...

It makes you want to laugh at those critics. Passiveness in politics will get you nowhere. Williams is taking a much-needed strong stand, simply put. Those who are complaining, for the most part, seem to be those who want Williams to shut up and go away, accept the deal offered after the contract. Complain as they may, I doubt it will faze him one bit.

Wangersky responds in his own column in words that speak eloquently for themselves:

When it comes to premiers and prime ministers, I just don’t know who’s right at this point.

I honestly don’t know what’s right, and I’m pretty much sure that my grasp of the issue isn’t that much different from the 90 per cent of the people who have already made up their minds.

Now, I’m leery of bandwagons, especially the patriotic kind. Patriotism sells T-shirts and suppresses free thought.

I like to make up my own mind, and I don’t like the mindset that believes I should have my ideological windows smashed out for daring to not toe the provincial line.

So, what do I think?

I suspect, at this point, that Premier Williams may well have the clearest case — that he’s right in maintaining that a promise was broken.

At the same time, you have to ask yourself if it isn’t a mug’s game to believe the promise could be kept in the first place.

There is, more than anything else, the real politik [sic]of the situation.

This is a complicated little tangle: could a promise like the one Harper made ever, ever make its way through a minority government, tucked into a minority budget? Only the Bloc Quebecois supported the Conservative budget — would a promise made, and a government defeated, have served us any better than an equalization scheme that will apparently still give us more money than the restructured Atlantic Accord was going to?

Those are interesting questions, and ones that it is hard to find answers for — it’s easy enough if you just want to decide to back one side in the argument, but there has to be more to picking a side than just wearing your heart on your sleeve. That’s akin to voting for a particular party in an election because your father always voted for that party.

The Telegram's editorial this week praises economist Wade Locke for putting some factual information in the public view. More information is always good when looking at complex issues. More, accurate information promotes discussion which usually leads to a sensible decision.

The jingoism favoured by far too many in this province currently is, of course not a new approach at all. The revanchist undertones to arguments about the federal government may be a new flavour, but the jingoism is - by now - old hat.

The Churchill Falls deal was unanimously endorsed by the legislature at the time. That's the deal, you will recall, which brought a tremendous immediate benefit from construction jobs but which was built - ultimately - around the idea of deferred revenues. It was only later that the people of Newfoundland and Labrador heard about the details of the deal and just how long the benefits were to be deferred.

That Premier at that time, of course, liked it better when everybody just fell in line behind him. He, too, disliked criticism and his supporters made his displeasure clear in a variety of ways. The Premier at that time made it plain too, how much he hated his critics, telling a media scrum that the Telegram had been taken over by a gang of illiterates.

That Premier, like supporters of the current one, claimed that he wasn't fazed by the criticism, that he would carry on undaunted in his crusade to build the New Jerusalem.

How odd then, that the Premier and certainly his supporters spend so much time dealing with the critic. They never deal with the criticism.

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Danny Gushue?

Olympic curler Brad Gushue dumped yet another member of his Olympic Gold medal team this past week, claiming there were "chemistry" problems.

But, as the Telegram is reporting, Jamie Korab wonders that he might have gotten the flick for questioning Gushue. The skip apparently took that as a "personal attack."

Following the end, Gushue reportedly told his team not to give up. Korab reminded his skip not to give up, either.

The two bantered back and forth with Korab calling Gushue a hypocrite.

All I’m saying, Korab apparently told his skip, is you’re telling us not to quit. I’m telling you not to quit.

Korab said Gushue then said something — he won’t say what it was— “snarky”.

“I said, ‘Brad, come here. Let’s talk about this.’ I said, in an assertive way if you want to call it that, ‘You say stuff like that to us all the time and it’s the first time I’ve ever said anything to you about it.’”

For the next couple of days, the two didn’t speak. Korab was waiting for an apology.

“But no, I was in the wrong for this because I had made a personal attack on him, which wasn’t the case,” Korab said.

A few weeks ago, rumours abounded that Danny Williams' crew was pitching the idea that Gushue should run for the Williams' party in the next provincial general election.

If Korab's story is accurate, now we know why.

Oh, an by the way, Gushue has been taking plenty of criticism on the local talk shows for the decision.

(Side note to Team Danny statistician: Further to your e-mail, that should put at 10,000 the number of times Bond Papers has mentioned the skip of your team. Thanks for keeping track.)

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The view from here and there

Check out this posting on Craig Westcott's speech.

Small dead animals is a leading Conservative blog.

The real meat in this one can be found in the comments, especially those by Newfoundlanders and Labradorians not currently living in the province.

(h/t to labradore.)

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Video Friday

Some video for Friday, the stuff that will set you thinking. Set you thinking that is, if you go here first.

Alanis' send-up of the Black Eyed Peas is funny.

But notice that you can really hear the lyrics and that is what will animate the link for you.

Queen's cowboys in another mess

This case will surely reach the Supreme Court of Canada.

Apparently the Mounted Police spokesperson is referring to this 1999 Supreme Court of Canada case, which on the face of it does not involve comparable circumstances.

The woman involved, who had mistakenly dialed 911 instead of 411 met officers on the front porch and while she denied them access to her private residence - as is her common law right - the attending could easily ascertain that there was nothing untoward occurring. Well, at least that's what the couple pursuing the lawsuit will contend.

The police will likely invoke the spectre of child porn and whatever other horrors might theoretically be going on in the residence in an effort to line up their actions with the reasoning laid out in the case law, including the 1999 SCC decision.

For a quickie summary of police detention powers, take a gander at this lucidity written piece.

Too bad the police didn't read this little summary provided by a law enforcement association in 2001 to British Columbia police officers.

Lawyers out there may wish to offer some insights.

R'uh R'oh

Premier Danny Williams may have given the Auditor General extra staff to shift the focus of his review of the House of Assembly spending scandal, but John Noseworthy is peeved about lack of access to documents to conduct a review of the fibreoptic deal.

In a scathing letter to Innovation, Trade and Rural Development Minister Trevor Taylor this week, auditor general John Noseworthy says his office still has not been provided with all necessary information.

Noseworthy said he has identified documentation that has not been turned over by the government, and as a result, “it is becoming increasingly difficult for me to have any confidence in this process.”

Good thing Danny's gone on vacation.

This story, on top of Wade Locke's assessment of the Equalization racket, would make for as uncomfortable a weekend as he's spent since taking office.

We can expect to hear the moaning when he gets back.

And for the record, there is no truth to the rumour that Williams has hired a former senior DND official with experience in shagging up the Somalia inquiry to liaise with Noseworthy on this and other files.

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Wanted: big player with deep pockets

The new refinery proposed for the top of Placentia Bay needs at least one major backer with deep pockets.

The backers of a new refinery on the Newfoundland coast say the US$4.6-billion project will likely only succeed if a large international oil player steps up as a partner.

From the Financial Post.

Upodate: the original corporate news release.

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A rejoinder to the local fisheries myth-mongers

From Offal News, with chunks from Jeffrey Simpson's column.

We have at our disposal the policies to correct problems in the fishery.

Local myth-mongers simply refuse to change.

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Rejected license plate

The daily e-mails yeilded this mock-up of a rejected provincial license plate.

This one has a special meaning for your humble e-scribbler.

(h/t to Donny, via e-mail, whoever you are)

Update: The photograph of a sample license plate - HMV 049 - that accompanied the original news release has been replaced by the comms people at Confederation Building. It now leads to a drawing of the license plate.

Too late.

The license plate will be morphed as many times as the triffid logo was back when that fiasco was unveiled.

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Another Dan-didate?

Walter Noel, left, is a former provincial Liberal cabinet minister and a former federal Liberal candidate.

On Open Line with Randy Simms this morning, Noel said he had written the Premier suggesting the province commission a report to look at the economics of Confederation and show how Newfoundland and Labrador hasn't been receiving its "fair share" or getting "fair treatment".

Noel claimed that the 2002 Airing of Grievances didn't produce such a report.

Well, not exactly.

There is a report titled "Newfoundland and Labrador: Towards an Assessment of the Benefits of the Canadian Economic Union."

Here's the executive summary:

This report was commissioned by the Royal Commission on Renewing and Strengthening our Place in Canada to provide information regarding the economic, fiscal and other benefits to Canada and to Newfoundland and Labrador of the province’s presence in the federation.

In 1949, Newfoundland and Labrador joined Canada to secure a brighter economic future for itself – and its new country. In the ensuing half century, Newfoundland and Labrador has certainly become wealthier but has struggled to keep pace economically with the rest of the country and with its trading partners. Perhaps unfairly, the province has too often been characterized as a place with no jobs and dependent upon the transfer payments it became entitled to upon Confederation.

A region’s growth involves at least four kinds of external relationships: (i) trade, or the import and export of goods and services; (ii) migration of people, both in their capacity as consumers and in their capacity as workers; (iii) interregional “migration” of other production factors, notably investment capital; and (iv) the national government’s revenue collection and expenditure in the region. This report examines the current state and evolution of each of these external relationships and in doing so provides information to help assess the benefits to Newfoundland and Labrador from the Canadian economic union.

Fiscal Benefits

This report finds that the federal government’s net spending in the province has not been a major factor in the overall national fiscal position. Newfoundland and Labrador’s size meant that more populous provinces receive substantially larger sums of federal money and have a larger impact on the federal government’s overall fiscal position.

Federal spending in Newfoundland and Labrador has declined over the last few years. In fact federal spending in Newfoundland and Labrador as a share of spending throughout the country has fallen 0.5% over the last decade – the largest decline of any province – while over the same period Ontario and British Columbia have seen their share of Federal spending rise.

Trade Benefits

The rest of Canada has and continues to benefit from the economic union by exporting goods and services to Newfoundland and Labrador. Companies in Ontario and Quebec have benefi ted the most from trade with Newfoundland and Labrador. While consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador have benefited from lower prices for imported goods and services since Confederation, it is only now that Newfoundland and Labrador businesses are starting to see a significant increase in their benefit from the domestic market.

Investment in the development of the province’s major oil projects will continue to support high levels of imports for a few years. The production from these projects will, however, start to generate substantial export revenue and help push the trade balance towards a surplus position.

Labour Benefits

People from Newfoundland and Labrador can be found across the country making significant contributions to their local economy. This study estimated that for every 10 current residents in Newfoundland and Labrador, there are 4 people born in the province that are now living elsewhere in Canada. By moving to fill jobs required in the rest of Canada, the Newfoundland and Labrador labour force has acted to reduce labour market disruptions caused by labour shortages in other provinces. The current study estimates that a flow of workers to other provinces the amount of which is equal in size to the number of people born in Newfoundland and Labrador but now resident in other provinces would reduce competitiveness and economic
performance leading to a $1.1 billion reduction in the federal government surplus. The latter amount is equal to about 40% of the current federal deficit in the province.

The loss of these people has, however, been at best a mixed blessing to Newfoundland and Labrador. The loss of productive workers and their associated demand depresses economic activity – but it does reduce competition for jobs for those that remain.

Natural Resource Benefits

For the last forty years investment capital has been concentrated in the development of the province’s natural resources. While these projects have brought jobs and income there are lingering questions about whether the province receives an appropriate return on its natural resource wealth.

The impact of the Churchill Falls hydro-electric power contract with Hydro Quebec is significant. The loss in real provincial GDP (1997 dollars) was estimated to be between $1,500 and $3,000 a person each year throughout the 1990s and – even at the lower end of the range – would be enough to pull Newfoundland and Labrador ahead of both Nova Scotia and New Brunswick in terms of per capita GDP. The benefits to Quebec’s economy have been equally large – supporting the development of a powerful manufacturing sector and providing windfall gains on their electricity exports. The situation has, up to now, stalled the development of hydro-electric resources that would reduce Canada’s dependence on fossil fuels and help us meet our greenhouse gas emissions targets.

The Government of Newfoundland and Labrador appears to collect, at best, a modest return on its natural resource assets.

• The high costs of development and exploration mean that the province collects about one eighth the revenue per barrel of oil that Alberta does. This low revenue rate, combined with a comparatively short lifespan for the projects, means that Newfoundland and Labrador will not benefit from this resource to the same extent that the other oil producing provinces have.

• Provincial revenues from other mining activity are similar to those in other provinces. The more critical issue for this sector is to process the minerals locally. The recent agreement on development at Voisey’s Bay should help the province benefi t in a more significant way from this resource.

• Provincial revenues from the forestry sector are the second lowest in the country. The benefit from this resource appears to accrue to the owners of the province’s pulp and paper mills.

Appropriate natural resources policies are extremely hard to define. Ideally, the province should capture a larger share of the economic rent from its natural resources to help ensure a more prosperous future. The analysis in this report, although limited in scope, would appear to support a review of the province’s natural resources policies.

Other Benefits

Confederation brought a host of other benefits to Canada. The new province helped “complete” the country from coast to coast to coast. While politically Confederation prevented Newfoundland and Labrador from slipping into the United States orbit it has not inhibited the province’s strategic importance to continental defence. By adding 406,000 square kilometres of land to the country, Canada gained a wealth of natural resources and dramatically extended its coastline. As a result, the adoption of the 200 nautical mile limit allowed Canada to add 1,826,000 square kilometers of offshore waters to its territory with access to all the riches of the Atlantic Ocean. This physical enlargement also provided a new shipping outlet on the Atlantic sea lanes with St. John’s harbour and Gander airport is an important waypoint for
international flights.

Finally, the people of Newfoundland and Labrador have not only contributed economically to the success of the rest of the country but have also enriched the culture of the nation through the work of its writers, artists, performers and politicians. The province also enriches our history as the site of the first European settlers in North America.

This report has explored some of the dimensions of the Canadian economic union and
Newfoundland and Labrador’s relationship with it. In 1949, a small economy became part of a larger economy. This action entailed the creation of a customs union for the movement of goods, services and capital; the removal of barriers to labour movement; and the reduction of non tariff barriers. The process of adjustment to these changes has defined economic development in the province since Confederation. With the tumultuous decade of the 1990s behind it, Newfoundland and Labrador can now look forward to a period of sustained growth. The process of adjustment and integration is still ongoing and the policy choices made in St. John’s, Ottawa and the other provincial capitals will help determine how the benefits of the economic union affect the people of Newfoundland and Labrador.

Maybe Wally didn't read the report since it doesn't conclusively demonstrate that his preconceptions are valid.

Maybe he is planning on running as a Dan-didate either provincially or federally next time out.

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