Blind, deaf, mute and no sense of smell

I am amused by the Opposition House Leader’s newly-acquired sense of smell. We do not do things by smell over here; we do them the right way.

Natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale,
on the Joan Cleary affair,
House of Assembly, 12 December 2006

The saga of Joan Cleary, untendered contracts at Bull Arm, her resignation, her $40,000 in severance and now her candidacy for the Progressive Conservative nomination in a provincial electoral district has gone through a bit of an evolution.

What happened depends on when you ask the question, apparently.

For example, try to figure out the circumstances surrounding Cleary's resignation from the patronage job.

Here's the version told last December 7 by Kathy Dunderdale, minister of natural resources:

Thank you, Mr. Speaker.

I will endeavour to find the answers to those questions.

Mr. Speaker, I have been providing information in this House since last Wednesday with regard to the security shed contract. I have maintained, and still maintain, that everything was done within the Public Tender Act, although there were two oversights, which we take very seriously. Because of the uncovering of those two oversights, I instructed my staff to review all recent contracts with the Bull Arm Corporation. As a result of that review, I have found an instance of where work was let at the site and the proper process was not followed, although, I have determined, to my satisfaction, that there was no intentional wrongdoing or political interference. This government is committed to transparency, accountability, openness, and we are fully committed to the Public Tender Act. As a result of the concerns that have been raised on this piece of work, I have asked for and received Ms Cleary’s resignation.

Note that last part. Dunderdale is clear. Let's skip the fact that she blurted out the de facto firing in the question, not as a news release or any other major statement.

Dunderdale's investigation turned up problems, so she asked for Cleary's resignation. Asked for it. That has implications for any severance. If a person resigns, there may or may not be severance, depending on the contract.

If someone is fired for cause, then there wouldn't be severance. And frankly, if your boss asks for your resignation, odds are good you are only a hair's breadth from being punted.

Fast forward to May and here's the story as told on Wednesday by intergovernmental affairs minister John Ottenheimer:

Mr. Speaker, yes, in accordance with the terms and provisions of an employment contract, Ms. Cleary is and was entitled to severance. It was done. It was clear, in accordance with the terms and the provisions of the contract, that she would be entitled to severance. There were some concerns, Mr. Speaker, at the time. Ms Cleary tendered her resignation. Her resignation was accepted by my colleague, who is in Houston today at an oil show. It was accepted by my colleague, the Minister of Natural Resources, and in accordance with the terms and provisions of an employment contract, severance was paid, as she was duly owed.

There's more than a little significance to the missing detail in Ottenheimer's version of events. Dunderdale asked Cleary to resign, at least according to Dunderdale's accounting, and there is no question that Dunderdale took the action as a result of what her officials found in a review of tendering practices at the Crown corporation.

Now, Cleary appears to have just tendered her resignation of her own volition. Of course there were "some concerns", as Ottenheimer soft peddles but those concerns were apparently not too significant, at least by the implication of how Ottenheimer put it.

Why is that important? Well, it may affect the entitlement to severance under the terms of Cleary's contract - if we could see the contract. It also minimises the magnitude of what occurred that triggered Cleary's departure. It would be very important politically for the government running Cleary as a candidate in the next election to downplay the episode or obscure the details.

And, ya know, it's not like they haven't done that before.

Take a look at Dunderdale's answer again.

The trigger for the resignation was "an instance of where work was let at the site and the proper process was not followed". Dunderdale assures us all of government's commitment to the Public Tender Act.

But it took five working days - indeed the next day the legislature sat for Dunderdale to spit out the full story:

Mr. Speaker, on Thursday of last week, we realized that there had not been any pubic call for bids, tenders, or Request for Proposals. That was a very serious situation outside the Public Tender Act. As a result, there were very serious actions taken.

A complete violation of the Public Tender Act. Work done without a contract, as it turned out, let alone a tender. Dunderdale admitted to the legislature that the work had been completed and government lawyers were then trying to write a contract with the company involved after the whole business was ended.

Bond Papers went through the whole sorry business when it occurred. There's a tick tock at the end of one post that traces the evolution of what Dunderdale admitted at what points in time on the Cleary affair.

The story as it finally emerged before Christmas was substantially different from what government disclosed at the outset.

And it is dramatically different than the apparently routine business Ottenheimer described in the House on Wednesday.

Of course, when you read all of the details, as admitted in the legislature over time, go back and consider the other comments Ottenheimer made about Cleary.

It would make one think that government actually does its business by smell. If something smells bad - as this entire Cleary affair does - then they assume the public are not merely without any sense of smell, but, as the phrase goes blind, deaf, and mute as well.

The only thing Mr. Ottenheimer and his colleagues should hope for is that Cleary is soundly defeated for the nomination. Only then will this be truly put to the end it deserves.

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Offshore drillers profits rise on demand surge

Operators of offshore drill rigs are reporting substantial increases in profit in the first quarter of 2007 based on surging demand for rigs.

Net income climbed to $553 million, or $1.84 a share, from $206 million, or 61 cents, a year earlier, Houston-based Transocean said today in a statement. Revenue jumped 63 percent to a record $1.33 billion.

Decima maybe not so rogue

Decima's latest poll results show the Conservatives and Liberals in a dead heat.

Maybe Decima's results the last time they reported weren't such a rogue after all.

Maybe there's something to the latest buzz from the Hill, namely that the Conservatives had a script for a year. Now the script is finished and there is no ability to improvise.

Evidence?

The Afghan story.

There likely won't be a federal election for some time, but the advantage seems to have passed away from the Conservatives. Let's see if they can get it back.

Province to leave lucrative quotas with companies

I never professed to be a business person, Mr. Speaker, have not got a business clue in my body, never paid a payroll in my life, but even my elementary sense of business tells me there was something right about that whole process, Mr. Speaker.

Fisheries minister Tom Rideout, House of Assembly, May 1, 2007.

Deputy premier and fisheries minister Tom Rideout confirmed in the House of Assembly Tuesday that the provincial government is only interested in gaining control of Fishery Products International's groundfish quotas.

The lucrative quotas for shrimp and crab will remain with the company that purchases FPI's assets, likely Ocean Choice and High Liner.

Rideout explained the rationale in a news release:

"The top priority for our government is ensuring that maximum benefits are received," said Minister Rideout. "Unlike shrimp and scallop, which are primarily offshore factory freezer operations, a substantial component of the groundfish sector involves significant onshore employment through processing. Under current DFO policy, any Enterprise Allocation licence holder is not obligated to land their catch in the province and therefore is free to freeze at sea and send this product to other countries for processing. This is a tremendous threat to our province, and our ownership of these quotas will ensure that Newfoundland and Labrador continues to enjoy these benefits over the long-term."

The groundfish quotas produce the largest number of jobs in local processing plants, hence government's interest in them, even though groundfish is considerably less lucrative than the other quotas.

As Bond Papers noted earlier in the FPI debacle, the province is looking to ensure the maximum level of employment in processing plants, irrespective of the long-term financial viability of the operations in an industry that is already oversupplied with plants and plant workers. While Bond may have been more than a bit off in some of the other projections, in the long run that much was right: the groundfish quotas are being retained to make sure that the maximum number of people have sufficient work to qualify for federal financial assistance. That's basically the philosophy the provincial government followed the last time Rideout was fisheries minister and as much as there is evidence of the need for significant change in the fishery, Rideout's plan is to keep things much like they were.

In the legislature, Rideout admitted that he had never run a business and professed to have no specific knowledge of business. Perhaps that explains Rideout's efforts to prevent FPI from exporting undersized fish and why he is so anxious for the provincial government to retain quotas for groundfish, a portion of which simply cannot be processed economically in the province.

There's no small measure of irony - or is it hypocrisy - that for all the talking of retaining what is rightfully "ours" and for all the Premier's interest in FPI's American marketing arm, that portion of the company's portfolio will be sold off to a Nova Scotia company. For all the time Danny Williams and others spent accusing the current FPI shareholders and directors of plotting the destruction of the company, in the end, it was a combination of factors, including provincial government policy that led to the dismantling of FPI and exactly the situation Williams seemed to oppose.

On top of that, consider that changes to the FPI Act made last actually greased the skids. Most observers missed it entirely, and fish minister Rideout continues to spread the myth that the legislature must approve and breakup of FPI. Yet, as Rideout well knows, the power to approve any sale of FPI and its assets was transferred out of the hands of the individual legislators and handed to cabinet.

The deal is already done. And if cabinet hasn't blessed it yet, the crowd in charge are guaranteed to approve the sale at the earliest opportunity. That's why FPI share prices have jumped lately: there's a sign that the tortures are over and the valuable bits and pieces will be sold off.

The debate in the legislature on Bill Number One, already given first reading and so far unseen by the House, will do nothing except set up a new regime for a new company called FPI as already approved by cabinet. If cabinet didn't know the details of the arrangement, they would not have introduced the new FPI bill before any other piece of legislation in the new session.

The end result of this whole FPI mess is actually quite simple to see. A once-proud company has been rent. The marketing arm, which supported the province's fishing industry as whole, has now gone off to Nova Scotia hands. A local company has picked up some of the other assets - the lucrative ones - and the provincial government is stuck holding the poorest piece of the whole pie.

But they have the one which, to an old-fashioned politico like Rideout with nary a business clue, gives them the most political brownie points. What the provincial government actually gets of course, is a prolonged headache that comes from standing in the way of the shifts and changes needed in the fishing industry. All it took was two and a half years of agony for the ordinary workers at FPI, a considerable loss for those who, like Sanford Limited had invested in FPI planning to have it make money, and ultimately the solution it seemed no one in the province had wanted. Later this month, we will be without Fishery Products International, except in skeleton, and with its most lucrative component - the one that produced value for the industry as a whole - controlled by outside interests.

It would seem that Rideout and his supporters have a political clue comparable to his business one.

Council of Federation struggles to be relevant

The Council of the Federation, essentially the provincial premiers meeting as they always have, is trying to fend off criticism that its one day meeting in Toronto on energy and climate change was nothing more than an exercise in optics.

“I’ve got to say — to say that this is a photo-op, I have some trouble with that. I actually find the comment offensive,” said the meeting’s chair, Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Danny Williams, when asked if the meeting was seen as a chance for the leaders to bolster their green images.

“If we wanted a photo-op we would be here in front of all the flags all together and smiling. I’m here today to indicate that the premiers are extremely concerned about this problem [climate change], they share that concern with the federal government and with the people of Canada, and we want to find solution.”

According to Williams, [Photo, right: CP, Adrian Wyld] this year's chair of the Council, the meeting served as an "awakening" and gave first ministers the chance to review a 30 page document on best practices to see what each province is doing to deal with climate change.

But as with Equalization, the premiers seem to have found some difficulty achieving any concensus except on the need for further talks. As the National Post reports, the premiers did not issue a climate change action plan as the federal government has done.

Instead, the premiers will work to develop a common energy and energy efficiency strategy, according to ctv.ca. Provinces will likely move individually in the absence of any consensus on a collective approach.

"We're not developing a climate-change plan here," Newfoundland Premier Danny Williams, who chaired the one-day session, said after the talks ended.

"What we're doing as a group of premiers is to try to make a contribution; to try to solve problems; to try to contribute to the national debate on what works and what doesn't work.

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Update: Two things. First, the picture is a new one of the Premier looking grumpy. Take as a n article of faith that every news shooter in the country will be looking for what will become the stock "Danny is grumpy" shot to illustrate future stories when...well...Danny is grumpy.

Second, the Globe story in the morning edition is headed "Climate change divides premiers". The lede sums up the problem for the Premiers:

Canada's premiers emerged divided yesterday over how to tackle climate change, with the leaders of British Columbia and Quebec pushing for a North American solution, Ontario pitching a plan that would be national in scope and Alberta rejecting both proposals.

Ok.

Well, realistically, how is that headline different from any headline ever written about any meeting of the Council of the Federation, let alone its predecessor meetings of premiers?

What doesn't divide the Premiers?

They can't even agree on how much money the federal government should give to the provinces through transfers like Equalization.

GCB launches Terra Nova program to explore new worlds of music

The Gower Community Band of St. John’s celebrates its 10th anniversary this month with two special performances and the establishment of new composition awards at Memorial University’s School of Music.

The first event is a horn recital by Bruce Bonnell, professor of horn at Central Michigan University, on Thursday evening, May 17, at Petro-Canada Hall in the School of Music. Dr. Bonnell will perform works by Mozart, Bozza, Neilson, Turner, Marais, and Glazunov, and will conduct a master-class for horn students on May 18.

Tickets are $10 each, available at Provincial Music, the Music Collection stores, or Gower Street Church Office. All proceeds support the MUN Music Scholarship Fund.

On Saturday evening, May 26, the Gower Community Band will present its 10th Anniversary Gala Concert at the D.F. Cook Recital Hall in MUN Music. The band will perform the World Premiere of a new work by renowned American composer David R. Gillingham, his Concerto for Horn and Symphonic Band, with Bruce Bonnell as soloist. The concert will also include new works by Newfoundland composers and arrangers as well as selections from the standard wind band repertoire. Proceeds from both events will support the GCB’s MUN Music Scholarship Fund.

The Gower Community Band has maintained a focus on the encouragement of new compositions by or for Newfoundland and Labrador musicians since it was formed in 1997. With its musical sibling, the Gower Youth Band, the GCB developed and introduced a series of manuscript concerts which presented original works by Newfoundland and Labrador composers. Last fall, the band travelled to Grand Falls-Windsor for a concert which featured works by central Newfoundland music educators Michael Carroll and Michael C. Snelgrove.

As a special 10th Anniversary project, the band developed its Terra Nova Program to explore new worlds of musical creativity. This program will provide annual awards to composition students at MUN Music, and also create funding for the commissioning of new works.

The development and implementation of this community cultural initiative has been made possible through the support of Petro-Canada. GCB director Edsel Bonnell says the band is “most grateful for this example of significant and effective corporate citizenship which will bring lasting future benefits.”

The Gower Community Band is an adult concert band which follows in the tradition of community service established by the 34-year old Gower Youth Band. The Gower band program was founded and is maintained by Gower Street United Church as a non-denominational community initiative.

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Biographical profiles

Bruce Bonnell, Horn

“Astonishing! … a truly breathtaking performer!”
Hans Graf, music director, Houston Symphony

A chamber music specialist, Dr. Bonnell has enjoyed a successful career as orchestral performer, soloist, clinician and pedagogue on the horn and natural horn throughout North America and Southeast Asia. [Photo: Vieri Bottazini]

Born and raised in St. John’s, he began his instrumental training in the beginners’ class of the Gower Youth Band in 1976 at the age of eight, moving quickly from trumpet to alto horn to French horn. His association with the GYB lasted more than 12 years, during which he served as player and soloist, section leader, instructor, and Associate Director. He received his undergraduate degrees in Music Education and performance from Memorial University and the Guildhall School of Music (London), his Master of Music from Northwestern University (Pi Kappa Lambda) in 1991, and a Doctor of Music at Indiana University in 2003. He was Assistant Professor of horn and theory at Indiana State University in 1997-98, and has been Assistant Professor of horn at Central Michigan University since 2000.

Dr. Bonnell’s orchestral experiences include Second Horn in the Hong Kong Philharmonic from 1991 to 1994, and Principal Horn in the Malaysian Philharmonic from 1998 to 2000 where he earned high praise for his playing from such notable maestros as Kurt Masur, Sir Neville Marriner, Kenneth Jean, David Atherton, Jan Pascal Tortelier, and Hans Graf.

Solo and chamber music highlights include the finals of the 1989 Canadian Music Competition, the 1998 Fischoff Chamber Music Competition, and recitals throughout North America and Southeast Asia. An enthusiastic performer of new works for horn, Dr. Bonnell premiered David Gillingham’s Baker’s Dozen at the 2001 International Horn Symposium, and Danza Breves for Horn and Percussion by José-Luis Maúrtura at the 2004 Sound Symposium in St. John’s.

As a member of the Powers Woodwind Quintet, he has toured and performed throughout the Midwestern states and received high critical acclaim for the quintet’s 2006 release Brementown Musicians on Centaur Records. His next recording project, a compilation of works for horn and flute with Vieri Bottazini, flute and Newfoundland-born Peter Green, piano is due for release in 2007.

Dr. Bonnell has also performed with the Newfoundland Symphony Orchestra, Ottawa Symphony, Hull Chamber Orchestra, Bloomington Camerata, Pan Asian Symphony and the Saginaw Bay Symphony Orchestra. His teachers include William Costin, Kjellrun Hestekin, Michael Hatfield, Paul Tervelt, Richard Seraphinoff and Richard Bissill.


David Gillingham, Composer

Concerto for Horn and Symphonic Band

David Gillingham earned Bachelor and Master of Music degrees in instrumental music education from the University of Wisconsin – Oshkosh, and the Doctor of Philosophy in Music Theory/Composition from Michigan State University.

Dr. Gillingham has an international reputation for the works he has written for band and percussion. Many of these works are now considered standards in the repertoire. His commissioning schedule dates well into 2009.

His numerous awards include the 1981 DeMoulin Award for Concerto for Bass Trombone and Wind Ensemble and the 1990 International Barlow Composition (Brigham Young University) for Heroes, Lost and Fallen. Klavier, Sony and Summit Records have recorded Dr. Gillingham’s works.

His works are regularly performed by nationally recognized ensembles including the Prague Radio Orchestra, Cincinnati Conservatory of Music Wind Ensemble, The University of Georgia Bands, North Texas University Wind Ensemble, Michigan State University Wind Ensemble, Oklahoma State Wind Ensemble, University of Oklahoma Wind Ensemble, Florida State Wind Ensemble, University of Florida (Miami) Wind Ensemble, University of Illinois Symphonic Band, Illinois State Wind Symphony, University of Minnesota Wind Ensemble, Indiana University Wind Ensemble, and the University of Wisconsin Wind Ensemble. Also, internationally known artists Fred Mils (Canadian Brass), Randall Hawes (Detroit Symphony) and Charles Vernon (Chicago Symphony Orchestra) have performed works by Dr. Gillingham. Over 70 of his works for band, choir, percussion, chamber ensembles, and solo instruments are published by C. Alan, Hal Leonard, Southern Music, MMB, T.U.B.A., I.T.A., and Dorn.

Recent works by David Gillingham include Sails of Time for massed band and soloists which was premiered at the inaugural Premiering Sydney Festival in the Opera House in Sydney, Australia, a Concerto for Marimba and Wind Ensemble, and a double concerto for cello, viola and orchestra. He is currently working in his Second Symphony for Band.

Dr. Gillingham is a professor of music at Central Michigan University and the recipient of an Excellence in Teaching Award, a Summer Fellowship, a Research Professorship, and the President’s Research Investment Fund grant for his co-authorship of a proposal to establish an International Centre for New Music at Central Michigan University. He is a member of ASCAP and the recipient of the ASCAP Standard Award for Composers of Concert Music in 1996 to 2005.

The Concerto for Horn and Symphonic Band, commissioned by the Gower Community Band, is Dr. Gillingham’s first concerto for horn. His other horn solo works include Baker’s Dozen, which had its premiere in the United States with Bruce Bonnell as soloist.

Domain check

The province's health promotion website, gohealthy.ca.

Great concept.

Great execution.

Who owns the domain?

Not the provincial government.

The domain was registered in early 2006 by The Idea Factory, the company that designed the site and the health project. The registration was updated in January 2007.

The site is linked from the provincial government home page.

Of course, it is. The whole thing is a provincial government initiative.

Looks like someone forgot to the change the registration.

Fair deal of bureaucratic gobbledygook

Update: Sometime after the original post went live, the according2.ca crowd wiped out the website entirely.

There's now just a white page with some black text about a rally at noon on May 11.

The budgetary process thingy is gone (see below) and instead, we are all being encouraged to "Stand-up for Newfoundland and Labrador."

Let's see what happens in the next 10 days.

**********Original post begins:

The Giant Rally in Support of the Great Leader is taking its own sweet time getting off the ground.

If the website is any indication, the whole thing is going to die a slow and painful deal. Tons of pages aren't even up as dummys with an "under construction" note.

Including the "Rally" page itself, which, as of May 1 leads to a "page cannot be found" warning.

Then again, if you look at the objective of the whole thing, then maybe it's just as well. Someone please put the whole thing out of our misery.

Apparently, the Giant Rally is designed "to prove it's place in the Canadian budgetary process."

The "it" in there is Newfoundland and Labrador. While Bond Papers is given to its fair share of typos, it's a one-man affair. The steering committee for the Gumball Rally has produced enough typos on the front page as to be painful to the eyes. Like the objective which is "to prove it is place...".

Arrrgh.

Just think about that goal for a second.

It isn't to secure Newfoundland and Labrador's rightful place in the universe.

Nope.

It isn't aimed at getting the prime minister to fulfill his commitment to this province and to Canadians from coast to coast.

Nope.

Apparently, the steering committee's goal is nothing quite so emotive, quite so edifying.

This bunch of fellows has decided we must all band together to secure our place in something called the "Canadian budgetary process."

Are you getting all tingly yet?

Didn't think so.

Even government's own financial accountants wouldn't get misty-eyed at that idea. Talk about words sucking the life out of something.

Here's a suggestion, if the steering committee is intent on steering this whole thing for a few more days or weeks.

Just set the goal for what it is: "securing Newfoundland and Labrador squarely on the fore-tit of Sow Ottawa."

Meanwhile, while these guys are busily promoting the independence in growing more dependent on federal hand-outs, the rest of us will be figuring out how to get the province's oil and gas industry back on track.

And Steve Harper?

He's likely quaking in his boots just like he did when Sue started the Recall Harper campaign.

That one lasted...what was it?...a month, before it folded under the weight of its own uselessness.

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Update: One of the Gumball rally organizers called Bill Rowe's Crap Talk shortly after this post appeared. Peter Whittle chatted at some length with the host.

Here's a clue Peter. By excluding politicians you have denied the premier his sopabox and the chance to lead the crusade. Therefore, the Pitcher Plants have taken a dim view of your efforts. In case you haven't noticed, Peter, Bill Rowe is a pipeline straight into the Premier's inner circle. If there's a line to be spread, odds are good Bill has it.

Therefore, he is branding your idea silly because it doesn't showcase his patron.

Now the rally is still a waste of time, but at least if you listen to the Premier's unofficial spokesperson, maybe you'd get a clue as to why the whole Rally hasn't been getting much support.

People would come to see Danny.

Would they come to see you, Ward and Ron?

Chavez seizes last private oil fields

Shortly after midnight Monday/Tuesday, Venezuelan soldiers moved in and state oil company workers in hard hats raised the Venezuelan flag over four oil fields in the Orinoco Basin.

In Orinoco, Chavez says the state will take a minimum 60 percent stake in the operations, but he is urging the foreign companies to stay and help develop the fields. They have until June 26 to negotiate the terms, including compensation and reduced stakes.

The companies appear to be taking a tough stand, demanding conditions - and presumably compensation - to convince them that Venezuela will be a good place to do business.

In a related development, Venezuela will be leaving the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank as part of Chavez's efforts to move the country away from capitalism. Chavez is also nationaliizing electricity production in the country and has threatened to seize private hispotals if health care costs continue to rise.

There are some limmits to Chavez's nationalisation. The state-owned oil company reportedly needs the continued involvement of private multi-natyions such as Chevron and ExxonMobil since the company lacks the expertise to fully exploit Venezuela's oil fields.

Mercopress, an independent news agency in Latin America, describes Tuesday's developments this way:

But in spite of the bombast, this “nationalisation” is in fact the start of a renegotiation of contractual terms that will more than likely leave PdVSA with a majority stake.

The international oil companies – ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, Chevron, Total, BP and Statoil – are being faced with several key issues: whether they will retain a sufficient stake to make staying worthwhile; how they are to be compensated for their reduced share; and whether they have a hope of exploiting reserves technically owned by Venezuela.

The market value of the companies’ assets in the Orinoco Belt is about $15bn (€11bn, £7.5bn) meaning $4bn-$5bn is at stake, although analysts say compensation is likely to be less given Venezuela’s threat to pay only book value.

Americans open new offshore leases

The United States interior department announced today it had open lease sales on 48 million acres of offshore land in the Gulf of Mexico, offshore Alaska and the central Atlantic continental shelf off Virginia.

Interior secretary Dirk Kempthorne said the 21 parcels could yield as much as 10 billion barrels of oil and 45 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.

The total estimated potential oil reserves offshore Newfoundland and Labrador is 10 billion barrels.

The official news release described the five year outer continental shelf exploration program as follows:

There is no leasing proposed within 125 miles of the Florida coast or east of the military mission line in the Eastern Gulf. The program includes a Central Gulf sale in 2007 that involves a portion of the Sale 181 area and, as mandated by the Gulf of Mexico Energy Security Act of 2006, one lease sale in the Eastern Gulf in 2008.

The Act, signed by President George W. Bush on December 20, 2006, requires oil and gas leasing in a portion of the area known as the “Sale 181 Area,” consisting of 2,574,823 million acres, of which 2,028,730 is in the Central Gulf and about 546,093 acres is in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico Planning Area. The proposed sale area “181 South” consists of 5,762,620 acres. The total of new areas in the Gulf offered under the proposed program is 8,337,443 acres.

The leasing program schedules eight sales in Alaska: two in the Beaufort Sea; three in the Chukchi Sea; up to two in Cook Inlet; and one in the North Aleutian Basin – in an area of about 5.6 million acres that was previously offered during Lease Sale 92 in 1985. There are currently no existing leases in the North Aleutian Basin. These areas would be subject to environmental reviews, including public comment, and extensive consultation with state and local governments and tribal organizations before any lease sale proceeds.

The release included a backgrounder and fact sheet.

While some of the areas included in the interior department program would be new to exploration, the Gulf of Mexico lands are adjacent to a well-established oil and gas producing region with considerable infrastructure. As well, the Gulf Of Mexico is close to some of the largest refineries in the United States.

All of this increases competition for exploration attention in comparison to the Newfoundland and Labrador offshore. The local offshore holds and estimated 0.4% of the world's estimated oil and gas reserves.

An analysis of global trends in exploration were linked in this post on Australian energy development. The new head of Chevron discusses his company's global plans in the story and the podcast linked from this post.

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March-ing toward oblivion

News that former ombudsman Fraser March might run for the Liberals in the next provincial general election should leave the party brass cold, especially in light of this story from Monday's Telegram.

Liberal Party president Danny Dumaresque is quoted in the Telegram saying, among other things, that polls don't bother him at all especially in light of the 1989 general election. He also claims there are a "number of prospective candidates of 'significant stature' who are coming forward for the next election".

Well, if Fraser March is an example of the candidates Dumaresque is turning up, better he focus his attention on something other than media calls. Apparently, the only thing Dumaresque has done so far is cause people to wonder who is actually leading the Liberals.

Normally, the party president is a back room job, a behind-the-scenes organizer. You know. The kind of thing a political party needs a scant five months before an election.

But Dumaresque appears on the airwaves and in the papers seemingly as often as party leader Gerry Reid. In the meantime, no star candidates have emerged. No prospects have been rumoured.

There's a convention coming up in June. So far little has been heard of it. Perhaps Dumaresque could have talked about that as another key step in the road to the fall election, rather than chat about the government's budget. Maybe there was something could have talked about instead of his skill at whistling past the graveyard.

Is March the sort of top notch candidate Dumaresque has in mind? Sadly, there isn't anybody else that Dumaresque has been able to offer up, so most voters will draw their own conclusions.

Bottom line is that Dumaresque talks a lot but his claims produce nothing good.

Results count.

Better for Danny Dumaresque to keep himself out of the news media. Better for him to stay in the back room and sort things out. Let results be the measure of his ability.

So far the combination of Dumaresque's unsubstantiated claims and stories like the March one make people wonder why we are even bothering to have an election in the fall anyway.

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Caped crusader considered for new Quebec LG

At least one report has it that Marcel Masse, a former Progressive Conservative defence minister under Brian Mulroney, has been kicked around as a potential candidate to take on the job of Quebec's Lieutenant Governor.

Masse was known for his love of maple syrup and opera music, as well as his penchant for wearing a cape to work on occasion.

Masse was the minister of national defence when a contract for more than a billion dollars was awarded to Bell Helicopter of Montreal for acquisition of the Griffon helicopter. Numerous, serious deficiencies in the purchase and in the helicopter were noted by the federal auditor general in a 1998 review.

Obviously, M. Masse would be an inspirational choice.

Sask NDP in expense claim flap

The Saskatchewan Party is calling for the resignation of a New Democrat cabinet minister amid allegations a caucus staffer admitted to inflating expense account claims 15 years ago.

NDP caucus chief of staff Jim Fodey resigned Saturday after admitting that he had given NDP House Leader Glenn Hagel incomplete and inaccurate information on the matter. An NDP caucus staffer was accused of pocketing $6,000 by altering expense claims. According to the Globe and Mail,

Mr. Hagel said last week that the party had turned over all of its information to police regarding the investigation.

But Regina Police Chief Cal Johnston says his department wasn't given important documents, such as the cheques or an alleged confession note, until 1994.

"It would appear from our files that we were told in 1992 that there was no cause for concern," Chief Johnston told a news conference Friday evening.

Adult sudden death syndrome?

Apparently it struck a judge being held in jail in China.

Hmmm.

Adult sudden death syndrome?

Bullet to the back of the skull.

Is that a cause, if not in this case then in others?

Falling down a flight of stairs, while handcuffed and shackled?

That would likely cause it, too.

Turns out ASDS is not an usual idea. But it usually manifests in young people and is linked to a previously undiagnosed cardiac condition.

Then again, ASDS could be a clever way of describing an old truism: it's not the flying through the air that kills someone falling off a building.

It's the sudden stop at the end.

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Budget Fibre Questions

Listed in the Estimates for Innovation, Trade and Rural Development (InTRD), is a $10 million line item to "provide for the purchase of fibre optic strands forming part of a new, fully redundant fibre optic telecommunications link along two diverse routes which will connect with national carriers in mainland Canada."

The original estimate for this project was $15 million "over the next two fiscal years", so this line item raises a few questions:

1. Has the amount been reduced to $10 million from the original $15 million? If so why? One of the points raised in the consultant's assessment for this project was that price quoted for the quantity of fibre-optic cable didn't seem to mesh with current market prices.

The consultant recommended increasing the amount of fibre. Buuuuut, the provincial government might have elected to reduce the quantity or bring the price paid in line with the quantity purchased. At the same time they might have opted to increase the quantity of fibre-optic cable being purchased.

2. Has the amount been raised so that the investment will be $10 million this year and an unknown amount next year?

3. Will there be a $5.0 million appropriation next year? It's likely the project is still on track with the original estimate, with two-thirds being committed the first year and the remainder in the last year.

With a tip of the hat to e-mailers

From today's Telegram editorial:

Cheers: to stacking the deck. Kudos to Internet blogger Ed Hollett, who spotted this Reuters story in April. "The Russian official whose role is to act as an impartial umpire in elections said in an interview published on Monday that President Vladimir Putin is always right. Kremlin critics have raised doubts about the impartiality of Vladimir Churov, a former colleague of Putin's who was last month chosen as chairman of the Central Election Commission. In his first major newspaper interview since he started his new job, Churov told the Kommersant daily that 'Churov's Law No. 1' is that Putin is always right. Asked by the newspaper what would happen if it turned out the Russian leader was mistaken on a certain issue, Churov said: 'How can Putin be wrong?' " That's certainly democracy at its best, and an honourable answer, indeed.

The original post is here.

A tip of the hat must go to the e-mailer who raised the subject in the first place.

FPI sold

Several news stories on Sunday and Monday report that Fishery Products International (FPI) is being sold. The Newfoundland assets are reportedly being sold to an arm of the Penney Group while a secondary processing facility and the American marketing arm are going to Nova Scotia-based High Liner Foods.

A new FPI Act was introduced in the House of Assembly last week, although details of the bill have not disclosed.

A continuous disclosure statement issued by Sanford Limited in mid-April stated:

Proposals to sell all the major assets in (15% owned) Fishery Products International Limited (TSX: FPL) in Canada are under final consideration by the FPL board. If these sales are concluded and approved by the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador the company will have a value well in excess of share trading prices over the last three years. Recent volume sales of shares in the company have occurred at C$15. This is well in excess of our present carrying value of C$7 per share and if this value is realised will result in a one-off gain of approximately NZ$20m.

Bond Papers has previously discussed Sanford Limited and FPI here, here and here.

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Another perspective on raises

This bit of silliness in political strategy and communications was apparently worth this much money to the Premier.

Political and public relations consultants in the province will be definitely revising their fee schedules as a result.

But here's another question: which of these people looks after the astroturf and the astroturfing?

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Video round-up

1. Would Trevor give grants for this potential local industry? Making guns, by hand, in the Northwest Frontier.

2. Darwin Award nominee from Autonomous Quebec. It's a decade old but it's still hysterical. There is no truth to the rumour this guy is a failed ADQ candidate.

3. Evacuating an Airbus A380 in under a minute and a half.

(h/t to a retired barrister)

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The other Stephen Harper

Where did this Stephen Harper go?

"The broad lesson of history," he notes, "is that Canada's natural governing coalition always includes the federalist option in Quebec, not the nationalist one" -- as was true of the Liberals for much of the 20th century, and of the Conservatives in the 19th. The Alliance's Quebec strategy, in case anyone missed his point, should be to make itself "acceptable to a significant number of Liberal as well as anti-Liberal voters." Mr. Harper's leadership, then, would herald a historic shift -- not only in conservative politics but in the politics of the country.

...


And while generally rendering unto the provinces what the Constitution assigns to the provinces, he says he wants to see "a stronger federal government" within its own fields of jurisdiction. Is this just lip service? Mr. Harper drops this tantalizing hint: "Our economic union is too weak because Ottawa has failed to use the powers it has under the Constitution to ensure that goods and services can freely flow across provincial borders." Is Mr. Harper saying he would use those powers? Paris was worth a Mass. An economic union would be well worth a firewall.

(h/t Andrew Coyne)

Harper appeals to Quebec nationalists

In a speech to approximately 400 Conservative and Action democratique supporters on Saturday, Prime Minister Stephen Harper quoted former Quebec Premier Maurice Duplessis to call on Quebeckers to support Harper's Conservatives in the next federal election.

"Two parties is enough," the prime minister quoted Duplessis saying. "A good one and a bad one."

...

He said a re-elected Conservative government would lead a Canada that was "strong, united and free, with a Quebec (that was) autonomous and proud."

Harper appeared to align himself strongly with the conservative, ruralist Union Nationale which, under Duplessis, ruled Quebec for 15 years beginning in 1944.

"There is nothing more precious than the family farm, which represents so well all the values on which our country has been built,'' he said to rapturous applause.

From a 1956 speech archived by CBC, Duplessis describes Confederation as a pact between Quebec and English Canada.

A reminder from Doug House

In light of the nationalist (populist) rhetoric in the recent throne speech, consider these words from Doug House on what's needed in Newfoundland and Labrador politics.

When you're done with the quote, go back to the post from a little over a year ago and consider the question posed at the time. The answer might be clearer today than it was 12 months ago.

Ever since it became self-governing in the mid-nineteenth century, political leadership in Newfoundland and Labrador has rotated between representatives of the dominant social class and populists who appeal directly to the "people" directly, with party labels meaning very little...

What Newfoundland and Labrador needs, however, is neither populist nor merchant. It needs a leader - or leadership if you include the whole of Cabinet [sic] - who can transcend both the exaggerated rhetoric of the populist and the restricted conservatism of the merchant. It needs men and women who exhibit statesmanship, by which I mean leadership that both transcends the interests of a single class and is grounded in a deep understanding of the issues, problems and potential rather than superficial rhetoric. [Italics in original]

J.D. [Doug] House, Against the tide: battling for economic renewal in Newfoundland and Labrador, (Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 1999), p. 239.

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Williams boosts political staff pay, some up to 16.8%

Staffers in the provincial Premier's Office will get raises in 2007 of between 8% and 16.8%.

Williams justified the increases, saying, among other things, that "They’re special staff. They’re a staff that are my senior advisers, that are running a $5-billion corporation, from my perspective."

Williams also acknowledged he needed to pay to retain people, particularly since he is a demanding boss. (All Premiers are.)

Has anyone been hearing any new nicknames for the Premier's Office aside from the old reliable the "8th Floor"?

Shrieking Shack, for example?

Incidentally, 8th Floor isn't like being one of the rings of hell from The Inferno. Rather it refers to the office's physical location. 8th Floor of an 11 Floor tower.

Funny and here everyone thought the province was run by the cabinet, assisted by senior public servants and overseen by the House of Assembly. Those senior public servants, by the way will only get a three per cent pay hike this year.

Williams also told the Telegram that while other public servants can expect salary increases in next year's collective bargaining rounds, the hikes won't be upwards of 8%. Guess 16% is out of the question, too.

But I digress.

Turns out it's actually all being run from the 8th Floor.

Highly centralized government indeed.

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Update: From the print version of the Telegram comes details of the salary hikes.

Chief of Staff: $131,050 from $121,180 (+ 8.1%)
Dir. of Communications: $101,896 from $89,546 (+ 13.8%)
Deputy chief of staff: $94,538 (new position)
Special advisor: $92,232 from $85,281 (+ 8.2%)
Principal assistant: $90,036 from $83,247 (+ 8.2%)
Director of operations: $81, 663 from $69,913 (+ 16.8%)
Manager, community outreach: $79,673 from $68,250 (+16.7%)

Rack of Confederation, the speech

Danny Williams will be speaking to the Economic Club of Toronto next week.

His topic: "his province's place within the federation now and in the future."

This sounds like the start of a road trip for the Premier. Just the topic to generate some headlines, what with the implication that Newfoundland and Labrador might not have a future within what Williams likes to call The Federation.

Williams will be in Toronto earlier next week for a meeting of the Federation council, seen in this artists' conception.

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Update: Early this morning, a draft for the Premier's Toronto speech turned up in Bond Papers' e-mail inbox. On closer examination, it seem authentic. Lots of hoary cliches. A quote lifted from someone else.

And in the middle of it, the following section that sounds, oddly familiar. Bonus points to anyone who can identify the original quote.


" Ladies and Gentlemen!

You have eyes, but you cannot see!

Galaxies…surround us!

Limitless vistas!

And yet, the Federation would have Newfoundlanders and Labradorians grovel away like some ANTS on some somewhat larger than usual anthill.

But I am not an insect.

I am...

Master of the Universe!

And I must claim my domain!"

Reasons for not having a spring election..Part I-lost-count

Yet another poll showing the federal Conservatives stuck below 40%.

The Liberals are at 31% and in Quebec the two parties are in a dead heat, behind the Bloc Quebecois.

Pressue mounts to dump Reynolds as electoral officer

Pressure continues to mount on Premier Danny Williams to shelve the appointment of a former president of Williams' party as the province's chief electoral officer.

Williams is defending the decision, and as this Telegram editorial notes, in the process misses the point that the CEO should not be a partisan in the first place.

Joke em if they can't...the sequel

Premier Danny Williams repeatedly called the Prime Minister "Steve" Harper in a scrum today.

Williams wanted to show disdain for the Prime Minister comparable to the disdain Williams contends the Prime Minister displayed toward the province recently.

Such is the state of federal-provincial relations in the country.

Reportedly senior officials in the province's intergovernmental affairs secretariat are working on other options to deal with the federal government, including:

- stringing toilet paper in the trees at 24 Sussex;

- "egging" the Prime Minister's limousine;

- making it mandatory for all provincial officials to blow "raspberries" whenever anyone mentions the federal government at intergovernmental meetings;

- randomly calling the Prime Minister's office and asking if the PM's refrigerator is running;

- leaving messages for federal officials all over Canada that Mike Hunt from Newfoundland called. The automated answering system will put the caller into an endless loop of "if you are calling so-and-so press 2" options;

- ordering pizzas at all hours of the day and night having then sent to the Langevin Block;

- sneaking fart cushions into the Commons and randomly planting them on cabinet ministers' seats;

- having someone slip a dead skunk into the air conditioning system at Harrington Lake;

- when meeting their federal counterparts, provincial cabinet ministers are to do the fake-handshake-smooth-the-hair-instead-thing;

- putting plastic wrap across the toilet seats in the House of Commons washrooms;

- try to embarrass the PM by calling Frank magazine with a hot tip that the Prime Minister has a stylist on the office payroll;

- tell Loyola Hearn he can pull Danny's finger anytime but Danny is sooooooo pissed off Loyola won't even get a fart; and,

- Answer any future questions about the PM with: "Who? Never heard of him. He doesn't exist. So there. Neeener. Neener. Neener."

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Postscript:

Sadly, the first bit of this post was true: Danny is resorting to calling the Prime Minister Steve.

The rest?

Well, hopefully it's just a little Friday evening levity.

Sad part of it is that, with these guys, ya just never know when the province's representative in Ottawa will be sent to the House of Commons gallery with orders to sit and stare at the Prime Minister until he gives in.

Things are almost that silly.

But is the Premier going?

Natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale is off to the Offshore Technology Conference (OTC) in Houston next week.

But there's no mention the Premier is going, as he has done in the past.

According to some industry sources, the Premier is going down for a conference pre-show but has to flip to Toronto for a Council of Federation meeting in Toronto.

So how come there's no public mention of it?

Bravo SWGC

Sir Wilfed Grenfell College is becoming a degree-granting university separate from Memorial University but sharing a common board of regents with the long-established St. John's institution.

That's one of the numerous high points in government's 2007 budget.

But for those of us with memories, there's a certain irony in the whole development.

In 1989, the Liberals under Clyde Wells proposed creating several universities in the province.

If memory serves, some - including the Progressive Conservatives under then-Premier Tom Rideout pooh poohed the idea.

Steps taken in the years since 1989 have helped to make this announcement a reality. All it shows is that sometimes, with a little vision and lots of perseverance, things can happen.

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Correction

An e-mail correspondent pointed out a glaring error on the part of your humble e-scribbler.

A post on one possible source of the government's recent nationalist rhetoric contained the comment: "His interpretation has been criticised by other historians, but it did serve as the inspiration for the entertaining but fictional movie Secret nation."

However, that proposition doesn't hold up since the movie was completed before the master's thesis referred to in the post.

The movie was released in 1992 and the masters degree awarded in 1992, according to this news release, but at most the two projects were in production at the same time and with no apparent crossover. The e-mail contained information that made this clear.

So there it is.

Secret Nation was not inspired by John Fitzgerald's MA thesis.

If it wasn't clear from the above comment, then let's make it clear now: the movie was a work of fiction. The MA wasn't. It's a thesis and as such has been subjected to whatever commentary and criticism is appropriate in an academic context. It stands on its own merits. Sadly, it has not been published for a wider audience to have a look at it.

The 1993 Montreal Gazette story linked here has a comment that makes it plain the movie was finished before the thesis appeared. Michael Jones is quoted as saying:

"It's always been in the air. Based on that, we did a certain amount of research, consulted with historians and that sort of thing before we made the film. But it was only after the film was finished that I read a brilliant thesis by John Fitzgerald, a young historian in St. John's, that was very supportive of the conclusions of the film - even though the film was a piece of fiction."

That's pretty clear and frankly there's no excuse for missing the point that Jones read the thesis after finishing the movie.

As for the rest of the comments Jones makes, well, only he can answer for the conversation.

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Update: See also this previous post for the same erroneous comment on the inspiration for the movie.

Joke 'em if they can't take a...

Update: See below

CBC News and others in Newfoundland and Labrador have one take on Stephen Harper's remarks yesterday in the House of Commons. Here's what he said:

"Sounds like a good Conservative budget to me. Also sounds like they're having awful rough treatment and they want it to continue."

The lede on the CBC story reads this way:

Prime Minister Stephen Harper helped himself to some of the credit for Newfoundland and Labrador's record-setting surplus budget.

Sarcasm apparently doesn't come across well for Harper.

Tax cuts, spending on a variety of new programs and deficit and debt fighting. That doesn't sound like Harper is taking credit for the Newfoundland and Labrador budget, just that the thing sounds like the one delivered by his finance leprechaun.

The second part is a fairly obvious dig aimed at Premier Danny Williams. After all, if the provincial government can boost spending to record levels, it is hard to believe that the loss of Equalization - because the provincial economy is doing so well - is such a problem.

Imagine if he'd said that Canadas New Government isn't afraid to inflict prosperity on Newfoundland and Labrador.

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For the record, here's the full exchange, from Hansard:

Mr. Scott Simms (Bonavista—Gander—Grand Falls—Windsor, Lib.): Mr. Speaker, the most controlling Prime Minister in the history of Canada seems to be losing his grip on the Afghanistan mission and now the same is happening in his own caucus. Here is the latest.

A report last night from Radio-Canada says that his Atlantic colleagues are seeing the light, or perhaps feeling the heat. Now they are considering voting against the budget, the budget that is hammering them and is hammering Atlantic Canada.

What is the Prime Minister going to do to put out the fire in his own caucus?

Right Hon. Stephen Harper (Prime Minister, CPC): Mr. Speaker, I see that the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador has tabled a budget today that involves record spending, paying down the debt and decreasing taxes. It sounds like a good Conservative budget to me. It also sounds like it is having awful rough treatment and it wants it to continue.

Mr. Scott Simms (Bonavista—Gander—Grand Falls—Windsor, Lib.): Mr. Speaker, the last thing the Conservatives did was break their promise. That is what the government prides itself on doing.

Recently, even the great Progressive Conservative, John Crosbie, says that he supports Premier Williams and admits that a promise was indeed broken.

This week we have learned the Prime Minister's need to cover up anything that may tarnish his sterling facade.

How will he cover up the fault lines in this budget that is opening up all over this country of Canada?

Ms. Diane Ablonczy (Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Finance, CPC):

Mr. Speaker, this is wishful thinking on the part of opposition members. They seem to indulge in a lot of that and a lot of false allegations.

The fact is this is a good budget for Canada, a good budget for Newfoundland and Labrador, and we are proud to support it.

Mounties get lesson in constitutional law

Lawyers representing suspended Royal Canadian Mounted Police deputy commissioner Barbara George are seeking a federal court injunction to stop the federal police force from investigating their client for perjury.

Questions arose earlier in a parliamentary investigation into handling of the RCMP pension fund among other things. George's testimony was contradicted by other witnesses.

Well, it turns out that a parliamentary privilege of immunity dating back to at least the 17th century protects both members of parliament as well as witnesses in parliamentary proceedings.

While Federal Court Judge Daniele Trembley-Lamer hasn't handed down a ruling, a great many people will be watching the decision with interest. There may be an aspect of the law that would lift that exemption from legal proceedings in a case like this. Whatever happens it will be an important case to watch.

Local Bond Papers' readers will recall that Premier Danny Williams tossed around the idea of removing immunity in the House of Assembly. While the second article on the subject hasn't appeared yet, the first one noted that immunity would be an easy thing to remove, at least in Newfoundland and Labrador. It also made this point:

Freedom of speech is also widely held to be an important right of legislators for the wider public interest it serves. Members of the legislature are entitled to make whatever statements they wish in dealing with a public issue. The same privilege extends to those called before the legislature or its committees as witnesses. All may speak freely and openly without fear and without concern that comments ought to be proven true before they are made.

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Update: In an unrelated matter, a supreme court justice in Newfoundland and Labrador today dismissed a case involving a former ombudsman who was suing the provincial legislature over his firing last year.

The justice cited parliamentary immunity as the grounds for the dismissal.

Perhaps the Premier is reconsidering his remarks in February.

And speaking of elections

Senators are expected to pass a bill currently in the Ante-chamber to the Kingdom of Heaven that would fix the next federal election date as October 19, 2009.

That would fit with more than a few political timelines in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Fabulous Fabe

More than a few in Newfoundland and Labrador were surprised by this picture [Tom Hanson/Canadian Press].

Why?

Because instead of federal finance leprechaun John Flaherty sitting next to the Prime Minister, there was Avalon member of parliament Fabian Manning.

Normally a member doesn't get to sit on the treasury benches unless he or she is a member of cabinet. Yet, there's a nattily-dressed Manning, looking on as the much more sartorially splendid Prime Minister tackles questions during the daily Question Period.

Now Newfoundlanders and Labradorians weren't struck by the attire of the two men, although some will certainly note that Fabe looks good without high-priced help.

Nope, wags across the province were wondering why Manning is cuddling up to the Prime Minister during the fracas over Equalization promises. Some are even going so far as to add the Avalon MP to a list of fellows elected to parliament who seem to have turned their backs on their province. They wonder if Manning won't be getting his come-uppance at the polls for supposedly betraying the province.

It's a good question.

Except that the whole premise of the question is based on the belief that one can only be a good, proper, loyal and trustworthy Newfoundlander by backing the provincial government in the crise du jour.

Manning might pay, but by the time of the next federal election - anyone wanna bet on 2008? - odds are good that the ruckus with Harper will be forgotten and Manning will be re-elected handily. On top of that, Manning is the likely choice to replace Loyola Hearn should the province's current federal cabinet representative opt for retirement.

Odds are also good that Manning - ousted from the provincial Tory caucus in a dispute with Premier Danny Williams - will be taking advice from John Crosbie on how to conduct his business. Wouldn't that be an interesting development: Premier Danny Williams dealing with the guy he wouldn't have stay in his own caucus, and the fellow from the Southern Shore having his hand on bags of federal cash.

Talk about come-uppance.

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Update: A quick check of the Commons seating chart indicates that The Fabulous Fabe was actually sitting in the seat normally occupied by Lawrence Cannon, Minister of Transportation.

The finance leprechaun must have been absent that day or just not in the shot.

Another life outside your radio

A few weeks ago, your humble e-scribbler bumped into VOCM talk show host Linda Swain on a street in downtown St. John's.

It seemed strange to see the person in the flesh when usually she is just a voice coming out of the radio.

Swain is a real person, of course and she has a life beyond listening to people ranting about this that and the other.

Swain is also a visual artist, with a new exhibit of her work at the Pollyanna Gallery, Duckworth Street until May 29.

The Telegram's Joan Sullivan has a feature on Swain and her latest exhibition.

Budget 2007: a quick look at the numbers

The Government of Newfoundland and Labrador forecast record spending for 2007, at more than $5.5 billion.

Some quick observations based on a simple breakdown into the good, the bad and the ugly of the budget:

The Good

Tax cuts and increased program spending.

All good in an election year and make no mistake: this is an election budget.

People will be happy and the provincial government is certainly counting on people's immediate sense of contentment to see the current administration re-elected with an overwhelming majority.

No region of the province is untouched by extra cash. No person will be left out of the tax breaks or other benefits.

The source of the cash: all the supposedly bad deals signed before 2003 by previous administrations, Liberal and Conservative.

Windfalls from high oil prices produced the supposed miracle of deficit slaying. Everything in this budget, indeed every budget increase since 2003 has been based on high oil prices.

Thank you Brian Mulroney and Brian Peckford. Thanks to the administrations that developed Voisey's Bay and the offshore oil fields at Hibernia, Terra Nova and White Rose.

The latter field is expected to hit payout in FY 2007. As a result, royalties will jump to 30% on the price of each barrel.

The Bad

This budget forecasts a spending increase 5.6% from Fiscal Year (FY) 2006. It also projects increased spending of 4.7% and 4.2% over the subsequent two fiscal years.

That's bad since it exceeds the rate of inflation by more than double in FY 2007. The Bank of Canada forecasts inflation to run at 2.2% in 2007 and at 2.7% for each of the two years after.

Prudent fiscal management would hold spending to at most the projected inflation rate. That doesn't mean program spending would need to be curtailed in important areas, nor does it mean the provincial couldn't afford tax cuts to bring provincial rates in line with Atlantic Canada. Rather it would simply require the provincial government to make some clear choices in what it considers important, rather than fix every problem by more spending.

Even in FY 2004 when the current administration proclaimed the province to be in a financial mess, it still introduced a budget that increased spending from the previous year. Spending has increased every year since. That's not going to be sustainable given the absence of a major new development at Hebron, which would have achieved first oil as production from at least two of the other fields slackened.

As it stands currently - and unless there are supersecret talks on Hebron no one is talking about - Hebron won't be producing oil for another decade or more. In the interim, the impact of demographic changes throughout the province will increase pressure on the provincial treasury at a time when the province's coffers will not be seeing significant new cash flowing in.

The current and forecast spending increases are based on optimistic projections for the price of oil in the medium term. Any downward trend in commodity prices (oil, minerals etc) will quickly make the consistent spending increases since 2003 unsustainable. Fiscal reality in those circumstances - taking less money in than is flowing out - would require program cuts, job losses and/or tax increases to correct.

Our plan is to continue this responsible approach in the years that follow to ensure we are increasingly strong, less reliant on the whims of others and more reliant on
ourselves.

The whims referred to are likely those supposed whims of the Government of Canada. This budget - like all recent budgets - builds itself on the whims of international commodities markets. Which one is less reliable?

More bad. Per capita spending will be $10, 871 per person in the province, assuming a population of 512, 000. It will jump to $11, 878 per person in FY 2008 putting Newfoundland and Labrador on par with Alberta for per capita provincial government spending. Drop the population below 500,000 and Newfoundland and Labrador will be outspending Alberta, the richest province in the country.

The difference is that Alberta isn't carrying around the per capita debt Newfoundland and Labrador shoulders, which, as noted below using the finance minister's own words, limits the provincial government's options in dealing with any financial setbacks.

That level of per capita spending is unsustainable in the long run. As a recent Atlantic Institute for Market Studies assessment concluded:

If the province fails to reign in its whopping per capita government spending (about $8800/person [in FY 2006]) and super-size me civil service (96 provincial government employees /1000 people) it will quickly erode any gains from increased energy revenues.

The Ugly

As much as the provincial government talks about the large public sector debt, so far it hasn't done anything to deal with it.

Finance minister Tom Marshall described the issue accurately in the budget speech, saying:

The most significant fiscal challenge facing Newfoundland and Labrador is the burden of debt we inherited, the highest per capita net debt in Canada, more than double the national average. High debt loads mean high interest payments, whether for a family or for a government. Reducing debt frees up money to spend on programs and other priorities.

All government has done is produce a net reduction in the debt by a mere $70 million in FY 2006 and forecast a further reduction of $66 million in FY 2007. At that rate - i.e. $70 million per year - the province will be debt free in 2178.

If there is a budget surplus in FY 2007, as currently forecast, most if not all should be committed to reducing the public debt. Anything else is whistling past the graveyard.

Government's reported success in reducing the debt to GDP ratio has come not from strong fiscal management by government but in growth in GDP driven primarily by commodity prices. Lower the GDP - as in a drop in commodity prices - and those apparent gains will vanish.

There's another ugly element in the budget reporting and that is in the misleading presentation of revenue from the 2005 agreement with the Government of Canada. It will not produce additional cash for the treasury in FY 2007 despite the claim by the finance minister that "[w]ithout the 2005 Accord negotiated by our Premier, we would be receiving $305.7 million less than we are getting this year."

In reality, that cash has already been received and spent on shoring up the teachers' pension plan. That was sound financial decision, but the provincial finance minister cannot claim double credit for the money.

Statement I in the FY 2007 Estimates shows the reality. A modest $49 million surplus on current and capital account forecast for FY 2007 becomes a $255 million shortfall once the $305 million from the 2005 cash advance is deducted.

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The Boss is Always Right

And if the Boss is wrong?

Well, in the case of the Russian chief electoral officer, that just isn't possible.

Reuters moved this story earlier in April:

Doubts over judgment of 'impartial' election official who claims Putin
always right


THE Russian official whose role is to act as an impartial umpire in elections has said in a published interview that president Vladimir Putin is always right.

Kremlin critics have raised doubts about the impartiality of Vladimir Churov, a former colleague of the president's who was last month chosen as chairman of the Central Election Commission.

In his first major newspaper interview since he started his new job, Mr Churov told the Kommersant newspaper yesterday that "Churov's Law No 1" is that Mr Putin is always right.

Asked by the newspaper what would happen if it turned out the Russian leader was mistaken on a certain issue, Mr Churov said: "How can Putin be wrong?"

Mr Churov worked alongside Mr Putin in the 1990s in the same local administration department in St Petersburg.

The new election chief has previously said he will treat all participants in elections fairly and equally.

Mr Churov will have a crucial role overseeing an election to the federal parliament in December and a presidential poll next March, when a replacement for Mr Putin is to be chosen.

In Russia, the election chief is often called on to adjudicate on allegations of vote violations, including claims bureaucrats have used their power to influence the outcome of elections.

Mr Churov replaced the independent-minded Alexander Veshnyakov at the helm of the election commission.

Analysts have interpreted the change of guard as part of a Kremlin plan to ensure a smooth transfer of power to Mr Putin's preferred candidate in the presidential poll.

Mr Putin, accused by critics of rolling back democracy, enjoys strong popularity after seven years of stable economic growth which brought relative prosperity for millions of Russians.

From a course report long ago?

DS: Soldiers will follow this officer if only out of idle curiosity. He should have a bright career in politics.

Two degrees of separation: Couple scammed in DR

This story is making the national news, but it was circulating widely in Newfoundland and Labrador within a few hours of the couple making it back home.

When travelling in certain countries it is important to know the telephone number for the local Canadian embassy or consulate.

Local debater scores big

A St. John's youth has placed 6th in the world overall at the prestigious 2007 World Individual Debating and Public Speaking Championships recently held in Cape Town, South Africa.

Sam Greene, a Level 1 student at Holy Heart of Mary High School placed 3rd in the debating event, broke to the top ten in the Impromptu Speaking event and placed in the top 15 in the Interpretive Speaking and Persuasive Speaking events.

At 16, Sam was the youngest member of the Canadian delegation of 12 top debate and public speaking competitors from across Canada. This was only the third time in 25 years a student from this province has qualified to compete at the World Individual Debating and Public Speaking Championships. As a level 1 student, he is eligible to compete at this level for another two years.

He qualified for the international event at the CanWest National Public Speaking Championships in Winnipeg earlier this Spring, where he won first place in debating and placed 7th overall nationally.

On Wednesday, Sam along with two other local students, leaves for Ottawa to participate in the qualifying trials to select Team Canada for other upcoming international events. Members of this team of 9 students will represent Canada at the Pan-American Student Debate Championships, the European Student Debate Championships and ultimately the Worlds Schools Debate Championship.

Jonny Lomond (Holy Heart High School) and Kirsten Morry (Prince of Wales Collegiate) are the other two students participating at the qualifying trials to select Team Canada.

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AG to get fibreoptic documents

After months of insisting that provincial law prevented cabinet from releasing cabinet documents to the Auditor General, cabinet has decided to give Auditor General John Noseworthy access to documents relevant to his review of a controversial fibreoptic cable deal between government and a private sector consortium.

No explanation for the change is included in the CBC story linked above, but the decision by cabinet is consistent with an idea advanced by Bond Papers before Christmas (first link above) that the Ag could be given access based on cabinet discretion.

The new Oldest Living Father of Confederation

One story for home. One for away.

It must be like a hockey team with a white shirt for home games and a dark one for away, except this one has a white shirt for both, depending on your perspective.

At home, Danny Williams is a fearless champion of Newfoundland nationalism. White shirt.

In Winnipeg, he's a fearless Canadian fighting the Newfoundland separatists. A different white shirt.

No joking.

From the Canadian Press post-throne speech coverage:

Premier Danny Williams says he's trying to quell separatist feelings within Newfoundland and Labrador, despite a throne speech that suggested the province should push for more autonomy from Ottawa.

"The fans of sovereignty are here. If anything, I've been trying to dampen those fires as much as I can," Williams said yesterday.

"Dampen those fires as much as I can"?

Uh huh.

Riiiiiight.

Update: There's a related story on cbc.ca/nl.

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Throne speech: one view from away

In the National Post.

Short and to the point.

Reasons there's no spring election, number whatever

Sucky poll results.

Strategic Counsel's numbers for the Globe: CPC 36/LPC 30/NDP 13/BQ 39.

And that's on the heels of the Decima results as reported by Canadian Press. The Conservatives at 30 are virtually tied with the Liberals, showing at 29. Decima's poll a month ago showed the federal Conservatives at 39%.

Details, please

Ministerial statements like this one are much more persuasive if they include concrete examples of accomplishments.

As it is, we just have a bunch of irrelevant numbers and a cabinet minister patting himself on the back.

This statement looks like every other release or statement on the same project: unconvincing.

Anyone can write down a number, set an arbitrary and unverifiable number and the en later claim to have made steady progress by simply printing different numbers.

Just because it comes in a government news release doesn't mean that it is inherently credible.

Terra Nova back in the cash

High oil prices mean that the Terra Nova oilfield has recovered recent refurbishment costs on the production platform and is now pumping higher royalties into provincial coffers, six weeks ahead of schedule.

The provincial government now receives 30% of the price of each barrel of oil produced under the royalty regime established with the provincial government.

Under the Atlantic Accord (1985), the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador sets royalty and other revenue rate for the offshore. It receives and retains 100% of the amount it sets. in addition, the provincial government continues to receive federal transfers for a fixed period under terms set out in the 1985 Accord and in a 2005 add-on deal between the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador and the Government of Canada.

Why there won't be a federal election this spring

1. Canada's New Government apparently has trouble with fax machines.

2. There is a brewing Afghanistan controversy that will hurt everywhere, but especially in Quebec.

The Throne Speech in perspective

From the Telegram.