24 March 2009

Encounters with reality

From the 1998 special Confederation anniversary edition of the Journal of Newfoundland and Labrador Studies, some food for thought for the more ardent of the anti-Confederates out there:

1.  For the “whole thing was rigged” faction:  “Confederation, conspiracy and choice: a discussion” by Memorial University historian Jeff Webb.

2.  For the “Canada killed the cod” crowd: “The background to change in the Newfoundland cod fishery at the time of Confederation” by Miriam Wright.  Wright is also the author of a significant book on the industrialization of the fishery. 

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Sikorsky starts fix on gearbox problem

Via David Pugliese of the Ottawa Citizen;

STRATFORD, Conn., March 23, 2009 – Sikorsky Aircraft Corp. announced today that the majority of the worldwide S-92 helicopter fleet already has complied with the company’s notice to retrofit the aircraft’s gearbox oil bowl with steel mounting studs. The company expects to have close to 100 percent compliance by the end of this week. Sikorsky is a subsidiary of United Technologies Corp.

The company contacted all S-92 helicopter operators on March 20 after broken titanium studs were found during a helicopter crash investigation in Canada. The investigation is continuing, and no determination has been made that the broken studs contributed to the accident or if they resulted from it.  Sikorsky immediately notified the operators as a safety precaution, and the Federal Aviation Administration is expected to issue an Airworthiness Directive instructing the retrofit.

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23 March 2009

Compensation talks? We dun need no stinkin’ compensation talks

Apparently compensation talks between the provincial government and AbitibiBowater have broken off.

When they broke off no one knows since natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale didn’t say and apparently no one asked. Talk about freedom from information.

But were they ever on in the first place?

According to AbitibiBowater chairman David Paterson, the only “talks” involved Abitibi and the provincial government’s energy company, NALCO.

Still, he said, the process is very one-sided. "[It] basically consists of Newfoundland telling us what they are going to do and we have to comply."

He said the expropriation legislation does not give the company any right to a judicial hearing. As a result, the determination of value "is at their whim."

Read the comments on the CBC story linked above though and you’ll see a bunch of people who don’t appear to have thought all this through.  Telling Abitibi to take nothing doesn’t real solve anything, especially if the company winds up in bankruptcy protection or  - worst of all – goes under entirely.  There are a bunch of pensioners in Newfoundland and Labrador with a financial interest in this. Then there are the loggers who have been looking for some sort of severance package even though their union contract didn’t provide anything of the sort.

These sorts of details make the last sentence of the CBC story a bit odd:

While AbitibiBowater has no legal obligation to pay any severance at all, the government has been pressuring the company to pay it anyway as it did when it closed its mill in Stephenville.

Since the company doesn’t have any interest left in the province and the provincial government seized all the company’s assets, exactly what sort of leverage the provincial government might have over AbitibiBowater is a bit hard to see. maybe the only people who will wind up with “nuddin” - to quote one person who commented on the CBC story – will be the mill’s former workers.

Environmental trade-offs update:  Just for those who haven’t been following along closely, the provincial government had intended from the outset to bargain based on a trade off between the environmental clean-up at the mill site and the hydro assets.  The Telegram version of the story makes reference to this without giving that bit of background:

She also said the discussions included severance packages for loggers and the companies environmental liability of its operation.

Basically, the idea is that the money paid by the provincial government would be reduced by any amounts forked over for clean-up and severance.  Now aside from the fact the provincial government has no leverage over AbitibiBowater on the severance, it surely must strike someone as odd the provincial government would tie these things together in this way.

After all, the company is liable for the clean-up any way.  They could also be pressed on a moral obligation to provide some severance package to loggers even if their union hadn’t been able to secure that benefit.

But linking those payments to compensation basically seems to make the provincial government out as the source of the cash.  The company won’t be paying any money for clean-up or severance under this scheme.  The cash will come out of public funds.

And if the company goes bankrupt, as some seem to wish for, the provincial government will essentially be left holding the entire bag.

So what exactly was this expropriation all about, again?

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Spinning him into his grave

or the dangers of google?

Jim Halley was a well respected local lawyer and a relentless anti-Confederate. Why CBC describes him as an “anti-Confederation advocate” is a mystery;  it seems such an awkward construction.

At least as far as that goes, Halley never got over the loss in 1949.

You don’t have to agree with him to respect him and with his death this past week at age 87, to offer condolences to his loved ones grieving his loss.

But voice of the cabinet minister, a radio station that ought to know better, did Jim Halley a tremendous disservice this week.  In their obit piece they gave him credit for something he didn’t do and for something he’d never have claimed anyway since he was adamantly opposed to Confederation (or at least the way it was negotiated) in the first place:

A former lawyer involved in negotiating the deal to get Newfoundland into Canada in 1949 has passed away.

Involved in negotiating the deal?  If anyone has some detail that will corroborate that one, we’d happily receive it.  If anything, Halley’s involvement was in trying to un-negotiate the deal.

Maybe the scribes over at the Great Oracle of the Valley got the line from a 2003 CBC web story [note the date] on the supposed rise of anti-Confederate sentiment in Newfoundland.

James Halley, one of the lawyers involved in negotiating the deal to get Newfoundland into Canada in 1949, says the province got a raw deal, especially in regard to the fisheries.

"Newfoundland has a growing cancer in its system," he said. "The root of our trouble is centred in the relationship between the two countries, between Newfoundland as a country and Canada."

Rest in peace, Mr. Halley. 

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Suncor and Petro-Canada to merge

From the Globe and Mail:

"This merger creates a made-in-Canada energy leader with the assets, cost structure and financial strength to compete globally," said Rick George, Suncor's current chief executive and prospective head of the joint venture.

The deal would create a new champion in the Canadian oil patch and unite two of the biggest players in the oil sands of northern Alberta, provided that the companies can stickhandle their way around federal legislation that was once thought to make Petro-Canada immune to a takeover. Under the Petro-Canada Public Participation Act, no person or company can own or control more than 20 per cent of the company's voting shares and the head office must remain in Calgary.

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Lemme get this straight

Greg Malone, actor, is working on a new book which is supposed to prove the Great Townie Anti-Confederate Fairytale once and for all, i,.e. that Confederation was a Great Conspiracy between Canada and Britain, part of which involved hoodwinking the poor dumb newfs

Wouldn’t this be classified as a re-make?

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22 March 2009

Air Labrador to lay off 100

The local airline will be discontinuing its Dash 8 service, according to CBC.

[Air Labrador Vice-President Philip] Earle insists the loss of the Bombardier Dash 8 twin-engined turboprop service is not a sign that Air Labrador is going out of business.

"I think it's important to point out we're certainly not going out of business. We're shutting down a particular part of our business as it is right now," Earle said.

Some of the laid-off workers will be transferred to other parts of the company, but Earle couldn't say how many.

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Brit SAR S-92s grounded for repair

Britain’s Maritime and Coastguard Agency grounded four S-92s over the weekend used for search and rescue in order to replace bolts in the main gearbox filter housing, according to cnn.com.

The MCGA currently operates four S-92s under contract from Canadian Helicopters (CHC).

 

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Whose side will they be on in an Abitibi bankruptcy?

The provincial government may find itself in a fight with AbitibiBowater pensioners in the province very shortly, as a direct result of the expropriation bill forced through the legislature last December.

If the paper company is unable to come to an arrangement with the creditors, it will likely have to file for bankruptcy protection.

One of the biggest creditors looking for cash will be AbitibiBowater retirees, including people who are retiring at the end of the month or who already have retired from the paper mills at Stephenville and Grand Falls-Windsor. There’ll also be a bunch looking for severance but that’s another matter.

That’s where the expropriation comes in.

The provincial government expropriated the company’s most lucrative assets – the hydro bits – in anticipation the company might go bankrupt.  Rather than let the trustees sell off the assets, the provincial government probably figured they could get the whole thing for nothing.  If the company sued, the thing will take years in court anyway.   In the meantime, the company is faced with the huge cost of the environmental clean-up at the mill.

The government gets the sweet bits and the company gets the bile. The people back the government.  Everybody is happy.

Well, not exactly.

There are those Abitibi pensioners.

They’ll be one of the Abitibi creditors looking to the trustee to sort out the company financial state and secure them some cash.

In the event the company files for bankruptcy protection, you can guarantee that the trustees will come looking for every nickel they can find. If the expropriation lawsuit was doubtful before, under a bankruptcy scenario, you can guarantee that all those creditors will want their cash.

Creditors that include the pensioners.

People from Newfoundland and Labrador.

Suing their own provincial government for their own money.

Wow.

So which side will the provincial government be on:

The pensioners…

or its own?

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20 March 2009

S-92 crash investigation finds broken stud in gearbox assembly

The Transportation Safety Board team investigating the crash of a Sikorsky S-92 found a broken titanium bolt in the aircraft’s main gearbox filter bowl assembly.  (link includes picture of filter assembly)

The broken bolt would reportedly cause oil to leak from the gearbox.

In January 2009, Sikorsky alerted all operators of S-92s to the need to replace the titanium bolts with steel ones within 12 months or 1250 flying hours, whichever came first.

The crashed S-92 had not undergone that bolt replacement.

The United States Federal Aviation Administration is expected to issue an emergency airworthiness directive for the type, effectively grounding all S-92s worldwide until the the titanium bolts are replaced with steel ones.

Just a second, there update:  A spokesperson for the FAA said the agency hasn’t decided when, how and what type of directive it may issue. The bolt may have broken during the crash or during the recovery operation.

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No safety issue with helicopter transport suits: offshore regulator

The text of a news release issued today by the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board:

The Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board (C-NLOPB) says it does not believe there is a safety issue with the suits currently in use for transporting offshore workers. There have been issues around comfort and convenience, but no safety issues have been identified. If a safety issue arises, it will be assessed and appropriate action taken.

The Canadian General Standards Board (CGSB) introduced the current Standard for these suits in 1999, replacing a previous Standard issued in 1989. The suits currently used in the Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Area are certified by Transport Canada as being in compliance with this Standard.

The CGSB has in place a committee to provide advice and input into this Standard. The C-NLOPB is represented on this committee, along with the Canada-Nova Scotia Offshore Petroleum Board (C-NSOPB), the National Energy Board (NEB), the Government of Canada, the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, the Marine Institute, the oil and gas industry, the fishing industry and suit supplier representatives. In all, there are 28 members on the CGSB committee. Several of the committee members have identified concerns with the technical content of the current Standard, but importantly, no safety issues have been identified with the suits.

Committee members are currently in the process of developing a project agreement with the CGSB for the revision of the Standard during the 2009-10 fiscal year. The C-NLOPB has had discussions with both governments and the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) on this issue. Consequently, we all agreed to contribute financially to the cost of developing a revised Standard, which would seek to address any concerns in the current Standard, and are in the process of conveying this message to the CGSB.

In response to the current helicopter tragedy, we have asked the Transportation Safety Board, the RCMP and the Medical Examiner’s office to advise us if their investigations reveal any evidence that the suits worn by the helicopter passengers, in any way, contributed to the injuries or fatalities that occurred as a result of the accident.

In addition, the C-NLOPB has asked CAPP to provide us with a list of any issues their offshore workers have raised concerning the current suits, and details on actions taken to address any such issues.

The C-NLOPB, the Provincial Government, the Federal Government, other regulatory agencies and the industry are committed to working with the Canadian General Standards Board to remedy any concerns with the Standard. For more information about the Standard, contact the CGSB or Transport Canada.

Looks like everything in yesterday’s provincial government scrum was already well underway. 

Of course, the provincial government would have known that before calling reporters together. After all, it’s not like the provincial government isn’t directly involved in these issues. Makes you wonder why the Premier volunteered not one but twice that they weren’t.

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“We don’t have a regulatory role”

The provincial government has no regulatory role in the offshore?

Nothing could be further from the truth.

The provincial government has no other role in the crash of a helicopter travelling to the White Rose oil field?

Nothing could be further from the truth.

Conflict of interest is just the start of it.

Oil company update:  When the de facto head of the provincial government’s oil company calls for a review of offshore survival suits, the guy who speaks for the association of oil companies operating in the province agrees that it’s a good idea.

Already underway update:  Turns out that the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers was already working with the federal standards agency on the review of survival suit regulations. In an interview with CBC Radio on Friday, CAPP spokesperson Paul Barnes said they’d expressed their support for the review when they got a letter from the standards agency on February 24.

Now that news make you wonder why the Premier would call for a review that was already underway.

And why would he leave the impression there were concerns when the review appears to have been started as part of the regular review and update process?

Did anyone think to ask those questions yesterday?  Like when the Premier said that someone made him aware of the issue.

Who made you aware? seemed like a fairly obvious, logical sensible question.

 

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19 March 2009

S-92 nosed in

Lead Transportation Safety Board investigator Mike Cunningham told news media today that a preliminary review of evidence collected of the Cougar S-92 crash suggests the aircraft experienced a major problem at about 800 feet above sea level.

"There was something that happened very suddenly and abruptly after the aircraft got down to 800 feet and levelled out," Cunningham said. "After that the helicopter went into the water and it was a fairly significant rate of descent, which resulted in a pretty bad impact with the water. That's why we have the extent of damage to the wreckage that we have."

This is generally consistent with information available to date, including a log of indicated air speed and altitude for the flight.

Cunningham is quoted in other news media (link above to CBC) as saying it appears the aircraft struck the water nose first.  This is based on an assessment of the damage to the recovered portions of the aircraft.  The cockpit portion is reportedly heavily damaged. There is also a suggestion from some of the comments that while the main portion of the fuselage is in one piece, it is damaged considerably as well.  This may have hindered the passengers from escaping. 

These comments today – which are based on a preliminary examination of evidence – suggest strongly that the aircraft inverted immediately on or very quickly after impact.  This would explain a number of details including the apparent absence of signals from personal electronic locator beacons worn by each of the 18 souls on the aircraft. The locators do not work underwater.

In an initial news conference (either the first or second) the search and rescue spokesperson reported that aircraft on the scene had reported beacons from the aircraft itself (it is equipped with three) and from the two bodies of two people observed in the water by the first aircraft on the scene.

Both were recovered by the first search and rescue helicopter on the scene.  The Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board mandates that offshore operators (oil companies) keep one helicopter within 30 minutes of St. John’s to provide search and rescue coverage.  Contrary to some media reports, this meets the recommendation of the Ocean Ranger Royal commission.

The cost of the helicopter operations  - including the search and rescue service provided to meet the Ocean Ranger commission recommendations - is borne entirely by the oil companies operating offshore, including the provincial government’s oil company which has an interest in White Rose and which will have an interest in Hebron, once it is built.  Canadian Press reported last week that the operators have tried to shift the search and rescue cost entirely to the federal government.

Misinformation on both safety and search and rescue issues has fuelled a frenzy of media speculation and political opportunism (two links) since the crash last week.

This misinformation persists despite information from many sources, including some apparently knowledgeable comments on CBC’s website that the current issue immersion suit was developed and improved in part from testing offshore Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador.

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Helicopter recovered, move to hangar for investigation

675A0062(2)The Transportation Safety Board investigation has recovered CHI91 from the ocean floor. 

The Telegram front page on Thursday included additional photographs of the Atlantic Osprey.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

675A0083The team moved the large case contained the parts through St. John’s last night from the coast guard’s port facilities to a  hangar at St. John’s airport.

They moved the crate late at night (after midnight) to avoid heavy traffic.

18 March 2009

Council shows some sense, temporarily

St. John’s city council deferred further discussion of the search and rescue issue until a later time.

Following the council meeting, Coun. Keith Coombs said a delay would help in a couple of ways.

"The period of mourning will be two weeks older, but also will give an opportunity I'm sure for him and others to see what reports come out and what the actual facts of the matter are, because obviously there's a lot of emotion tied to this," said Coombs.

Good idea, especially when the guy pushing it hardest admitted he really doesn’t know anything about the subject.

Good idea too, from a council with a history of talking about things that are way outside their mandate and then making an ass of them in the process.  The mayor built his career on things he clearly knows nothing about.  One of his pet projects has cost taxpayers $65 million and counting.

Yes, Doc O’Keefe rose to prominence on the whole provincial government’s gas price fixing scheme.

The most recent example of this tendency to get involved with stuff council shouldn’t be involved with?  The whole crowd all got taken for a ride by a guy peddling a hockey team to go in the Wells-Coombs Memorial Public Money Pit, a.k.a Mile One.

What is it about city councillors talking about anything but the stuff they get paid to look after (let alone know about)?

What is it about politics and hockey that makes for such an overwhelmingly bad mix for voters?

 

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A pike, a scold, some vultures and a poke.

1.  Roger Pike offers some insightful comments on why the central Newfoundland community is currently in the grip of a major political crisis.

2.  The mayor and council have a plan to deal with the closure of the paper mill.  Well, not really a plan.  More like a list of things.

3.  One town councillor thinks there’s too much negativity.

She [Janice Eisenhaur] added that she wondered if the "vultures'" behaviour was for political gain, self-gain, or if just because they were chronic complainers.

The councillor says she isn't referring to the people who are looking for answers, but to those who she says make unfounded statements and publicly announce them, with no facts and figures in front of them.

Councillor Eisenhaur says council and other people are working on initiatives that will hopefully lead to more jobs and increased economic growth.

"Is it going to replace the jobs that are going to be lost in the mill? No. Will it employ some of those people? Perhaps."

Would those vultures  - people who, for political gain, self-gain or some other reason, make unfounded statements and announce them publicly - include people who claim there is a plan to offset the loss of a 1,00 jobs in the region and the town’s major private sector employer but who can’t provide any concrete details?

She did not go into detail about the initiatives she mentioned, though Mayor Rex Barnes talked about them in this past week's Exploits Regional Chamber of Commerce dinner (see related story on page one of today's Advertiser), such as cranberry farming, IT and health care.

"This are things are going to come to fruition. It's not going to happen overnight and it is going to take public and private investment, so we're going to have to wait for this to happen."

There are plans but Janice can’t say what they are other than that they involve a few of things that have already been going on and which really can’t replace the mill anyway.

Sounds pretty much like something that is unfounded and said by somebody without facts and figures in front of them. Don’t be surprised if someone wonders if Janice’s comments are for political gain, personal gain or a need to complain about the people she gets paid to listen to and work with.

God save us, from mainland reporters who spend a few hours in a local hotel in St. John’s and presume to understand this place they love to call “The Rock.”

God save us, to, from local politicians like Janice Eisenhaur.

4.  The Advertiser takes a poke at the vulture idea.

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17 March 2009

Enhancing east coast search and rescue

The crash of Cougar 91, carrying passengers to two of the country’s offshore oil platforms, has prompted calls for enhanced search and rescue service.

Unfortunately those calls are hampered by misunderstanding and misinformation. 

Retired Canadian Forces colonel Michel Drapeau described a forward deployment scenario today for audiences of the noon-time CBC Radio current affairs program radio Noon.  Drapeau talked about sending aircraft to St. John’s from existing SAR assets but Drapeau appeared to believe that existing SAR service is provided entirely from Nova Scotia.

Others have been calling for the creation of a new search and rescue squadron in St. John’s. This is justified on the basis that St. John’s is closest to the oil fields, among other things.

Existing SAR Resources

The eastern coast region covers the area from southern Nova Scotia to the northernmost tip of Labrador and extends eastward into the Atlantic to at least the 200 mile limit.  That huge expanse is covered currently by three squadrons, as follows:

  • 413 Transport and Rescue Squadron, Greenwood Nova Scotia, operating four CH-149 Cormorant helicopters and one CC-130 Hercules. As the primary search and rescue squadron in Nova Scotia, the squadron maintains a response capability 24 hours a day throughout the region.  Supplemented by maritime patrol squadrons.  Secondary response (back-up0 is provided by 423 Squadron Shearwater, flying CH-124 Sea King.
  • 103 Rescue Squadron, Gander Newfoundland, operating three CH-149 Cormorant helicopters.  It is responsible for providing a 24 hour response capability throughout Newfoundland and Labrador, with fixed wing support provided, as needed, from 413 Squadron and other Squadrons at Greenwood.  103 Squadron typically flies twice the national average in actual distress missions. Back-up by Cougar helicopters flying the S-92, an aircraft scheduled to enter Canadian Forces service as the CH-148 Cyclone.
  • 444 Combat Support Squadron providing 12 hour SAR support to 413 and 103 with CH-146.

Current purchase plans

C-27J_DimensionsIn early 2008, the Department of National Defence (DND) considered buying up to three more Cormorants to supplement the fleet of 15 originally purchased in 1998 for an initial price of about $600 million.  The new aircraft would replace one lost aircraft and address availability issues in some squadrons.  A shortage of spares and other issues resulting from the introduction of a new aircraft had reduced aircraft availability.

DND is currently finalising the purchase of up to 15 fixed wing search and rescue aircraft to replace the existing fleet of sic CC-115 Buffalo. The favoured aircraft appears to be the C-27 Spartan.

As well, DND is in the process of replacing the existing fleet of Hercules with the newer “J” model.

Some new ideas

Given the large geographic area as well as the terrain and climatic conditions on the east coast, the search and rescue capability needs to come from a mix of aircraft.  That’s the solution that has worked well.

Current attention is focused on St. John’s but the real weakness is the current basing which puts all the assets in the south and central with limited capability in the north.

Enhanced capability for east coast search and rescue could come from:

  • Two additional Cormorants for 103 Squadron, based in Gander, bringing the complement from three to five.  At least one aircraft could be forward deployed to Goose Bay regularly and rotated back to gander as needed. This arrangement would also give an additional aircraft which could be forward deployed as needed to St. John’s in addition to the arrangement with Cougar. 
  • Fixed wing aircraft for 103 aircraft coming from either the C-27J or, preferably,  CC-130J purchases.  If necessary more aircraft should be purchased or leased than called for in current plans.
  • Installation of in-flight refuelling on the existing Cormorant fleet. Cormorant range is currently extended somewhat by relying on the Hibernia platform for emergency refuelling.

kc130jFor a marginal increase in planned purchases, DND could provide significant added capacity. 

The in-flight refuelling tankers would be provided by the new CC-130J aircraft that would be dedicated to the SAR role.  Currently, 413 aircraft are also used as transports. 

Having dedicated in-flight refuelers would extend the range and time on station of Cormorants. Some aircraft will still have to fly longer distances but by refuelling in-flight, they will minimise the time currently taken by landing to refuel and launching again.

At the same time, these new fixed wing aircraft would not be multi-tasked as 413 Squadron is currently.  103’s new Hercules would also be available to support 413 Squadron.

Overall, this approach would enhance capability to the north where it is currently very limited.  As well, the overall east coast where the majority of daily activity takes place would have capability for longer periods, farther out to sea than is currently available. 

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Canadian Press fact check, please

 Canadian Press should know that 103 Search and Rescue Squadron in Gander has three – not two – CH-149 Cormorant helicopters.

It’s on the squadron website.

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And then it was gone

A day after we posted a link to the blog on local call-in shows, the thing vanished.

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S-92 track log

From flightaware.com, the track log for CHI91.

Times shown are Eastern Daylight Savings time.  To convert to local (Newfoundland and Labrador) time add one hour thirty minutes.

This data, which appears to come from Gander air traffic control centre,  must be taken as preliminary and may be inaccurate.  The Transportation Safety Board investigation will use data from several sources, including the onboard flight data recorders, to develop a complete and accurate picture of the flight.

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TSB S-92 summary: the media briefings thus far

Since taking over the Cougar S-92 crash, the Transportation Safety Board has been providing more details on the incident through regular media briefings.

Over the weekend, TSB officials described some of the debris recovered initially. It included:

  • a sponson (one of the large structures on the side of the aircraft)
  • the rear cargo door
  • an interior bulkhead (likely the bulkhead separating the passenger compartment from the rear cargo area)
  • one of the emergency escape doors
  • both parts of a forward access door.  The top section latch was in the open position was in the open position;  the bottom half was latched.

The fuselage is sitting on the bottom in approximately 178 metres of water.  The tail boom has separated from the fuselage but remains near the main part of the aircraft. The fuselage is resting on one side.

gandmimagewronghelo As of Tuesday 17 Mar 09, all bodies had been recovered from the aircraft. The recovery process is indicated in the image, at left from the Globe and Mail.  The image uses a drawing of the wrong helicopter type.  It is labelled S-92 but the aircraft pictured is a PUMA.

The aircraft appears to have suffered a hard impact, significantly harder than first assumed. As a TSB official described it:

"It's been broken up somewhat," he said.

"It's cracked up quite a bit. The cockpit area in particular has been quite damaged."

However, he noted, the helicopter's cabin structure, from where the bodies are being recovered, is "somewhat together."

Unedited video of the TSB news conferences are available at cbc.ca/nl.

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Science minister a creationist?

Now that would be nutty even in a nutty federal administration.

Not quite as nutty as having a cabinet minister who has nothing better to do that write letters to the editor, but still, pretty nutty.

People in Labrador, of course, won’t help but notice that all the big projects supposedly being “advanced’ by the provincial government in Labrador  - according to cabinet minister John Hickey  - depend on federal funding.

Meanwhile in related nutty news, still no word on how Hickey’s defamation suit is going.  Hickey sued the former leader of the opposition for remarks said by someone else, namely Hickey’s own party leader, Premier Danny Williams.

Maybe Hickey has federal aspirations, what with his attacks on incumbent member of parliament, Todd Russell.  Based on the standards set by the current science minister, Hickey would have a bright future in any Harper government. 

He fits right in.

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Final seven recovered

The remains of all sixteen of the missing from Cougar 91 have been recovered and returned to St. John’s.

Only one person on board the flight survived.  He remains in hospital but is reportedly making a steady recovery.

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16 March 2009

Do they have anything of value to contribute?

Please. Someone. Explain this:

[St. John.s city councillor Tom] Hann admitted he didn’t know enough about search and rescue to say whether or not a faster response would have made a difference to the outcome of last week’s crash.

“I can’t answer that question,” he said. “That’s an issue for the experts. But the only issue that I see is that, you know, I think it’s needed. Everybody says it is needed, but nothing has been done.”

The guy says he doesn’t know enough to anything of consequence at all and yet he makes a proposal to do something to deal with a situation about which he admits his own fundamental ignorance.

On top of that, he claims the idea of having a search and rescue unit in St. John’s is an issue best left to “experts” but at the same time, he wants to push this idea because “everybody” says it is needed.

So who are the experts he’s talking about?

Here’s a thought:  maybe Tom can get together with Scott Simms and discuss relocating the search and rescue unit in Scott’s riding to St. John’s.

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Tom, don’t expect to get a job with Sikorsky sales update:  Just listening to Tom Hann on a night-time talk show doing an excellent job of demonstrating what he doesn’t know.  Tom is familiar with these subjects since  - as Tom put it  - “I’ve flown the Cormorant.”  Flown one or flown in one? 

Anyway.

Newsflash, Tom -  Both the Cormorant (EH-101) and the S-92 are built to fly search and rescue as well as transport and other missions. Next time you get a chance to talk to anyone federally you might ask about the new navy helicopter, the Cyclone, which is…wait for it…the S-92 in another guise.  When it comes in service, it will be providing SAR back-up for the Cormorants.

Makes you wonder where Tom stood on the cancellation of the EH-101s in 1993?  It’s a bit like listening to Scott Simms asking where the Cormorant back-up was while the entire squadron from Gander conducted a squadron full deployment exercise last week. 

The back up was provided by Cougar. Here’s some video of a Cougar SAR training mission. You’ll find a few other vids of this from different angles.

Once this is all over, Rick Burt and the people at Cougar need to take Tom and his friends up for a spin and introduce them to the superlative staff flying SAR missions for the company.

This won’t be pretty

Funny yes, but not pretty.

Is that you, Bas? is a new  blog dedicated to local talk radio callers.

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And speaking of funny, not pretty…

nottawa’s observations on one local talk radio host.

 

-srbp-

15 March 2009

When tragedy becomes abuse

Not surprisingly, an e-mail showed up on Thursday ranting about what the writer – a former journalist – called “asshole questions.”

It wasn’t surprising because more than a few people have been appalled since Thursday last week at an entire line of innuendo drawn by one reporter at a news conference on the Cougar helicopter crash and then turned into a self-referential pile of garbage that evening on a VOCM call-in show.

Self-referential refers to the arrogant tendency of both the reporter and the call-in show host to talk about how hard this whole tragedy at sea has been for them. They didn’t lose anyone on the ill-fated Cougar helicopter flight nor did they know anyone personally, apparently.  Their grief came from having to cover the story.  The pair led off the Sunday evening edition with the same self-pity bull.

Then they turned to justifying their comments about search and rescue and what they seem to believe was the lack of search and rescue response “on Newfoundland ground.”  That’s the phrase the reporter in question likes to use. He used it, too, in that news conference not to establish the search and rescue response but to focus on the military search and rescue.

All that blather – as well as the call right afterwards from one of their former colleagues at the twice defunct newspaper The Independent - was a clue that the pair have been under some pressure  likely from their colleagues in the local journalist community for a string of not only what the e-mail correspondent aptly described but the commentary that flowed from the questions.

The details of this incident were known on the day of the crash. One of the details known from the outset is that a search and rescue helicopter was available at the time of the crash and responded to the scene.  According to the timeline produced in the Telegram from the rescue co-ordination centre in Halifax, the helicopter arrived on scene 72 minutes after the ditching and recovered the one survivor in the water.

One must wonder on what basis anyone would morph the simple facts as established clearly and unequivocally into some sort of line of inquiry about the CH-149s. 

The only obvious reason to do so would be if there was any indication that this had an impact on events, but that doesn’t hold up to any scrutiny. With the information presented at the third news conference on the day of the crash – the one at which the string of questions on the Cormorants started – it was pretty clear that none but the two bodies (one fatality and one survivor) identified were spotted by the very first aircraft on scene.  That PAL King Air arrived some 25 minutes after impact, more than 40 minutes before the first search and rescue helicopter  - from COUGAR search and rescue (SAR)  - arrived on the scene.

With that established – as it was from the outset - there is no legitimate reason to persist in the blatant misrepresentations that have taken place since Thursday.

Search and rescue aircraft were available immediately at the time of the crash.  The others – Cormorants belonging not to  coast guard but to the Department of National Defence – were on a training exercise. They were pulled off the exercise and despatched to the crash site.  They arrived on the scene 18 minutes after the COUGAR SAR flight. [Corrected:  original stated difference in time as 38 mins.  Cougar on scene 1110 hrs.  Cormorant on scene 1128 hrs local]

This entire thread cannot be blithely dismissed as part of the normal hard work done by responsible journalists.  Responsible journalists did their jobs on Thursday and they have done it since then on this story.  They asked hard questions but they asked relevant questions based on the information readily available. They didn’t get into the Cormorant angle, one suspects, because the unspeakable truth of this incident was evident to them all from the outset.

Responsible journalists didn’t use the questions and answers to create an entirely false impression, as it evidently has, in a group of people who have been misled in their grief.  One of those people, the mayor of a town hit hard by the tragedy, turned up on national radio repeating the false information he had received and trusted.

Even as hideous as all that is, the self-referential pair can’t be held responsible for another despicable crowd who have taken the false information – no search and rescue helicopters in Newfoundland at the time of the crash – and put it to some more demented purpose. Far too many people have taken this false information and turned it  into part of their political agenda. One of those callers turned up just now on the same call-in show spewing his particular brand of venom.  Not once did the host try and sort the fellow out.

People who know how news conferences work know how information can change in an unfolding event such as this one. They can note, for example, how some details change.  In the second newser, some locator beacons were detected initially.  In the third one, it sounds like none at all were detected.  The correct detail will emerge.

That’s not what we are looking at in the case of the thread about SAR response. The details were already clear from the outset.  Some people have misrepresented them, inexplicably and disgustingly.

This sort of misrepresentation amounts to an abuse. 

It tortures the families of the victims of the crash by suggesting a hope which is false. 

This attack – and that’s what it amounts to – tortures the men and women of the search and rescue services.  103 Search and Rescue Squadron flies twice the national average in SAR missions.  Hercules from 413 Squadron join them far out to sea.  They all train hard and fly hard and risk their lives in weather when the rest of us are huddled by a fire safe at home. They do it to save the souls whose lives are at risk in the harsh North Atlantic. When lives are lost, as in this case, they will inevitably search their souls to ensure that all that could be done was done.

This attack abuses the men and women of Cougar. The company has an exemplary safety record.  The company has such a record because every single employee is committed to safe service.  Over 48,000 accident free flying hours don’t happen without such a level of personal commitment. The company’s crews also fly search and rescue services every bit as good and every bit as dangerous as the work done by 103 and its sister squadrons.

These misrepresentations abuse the members of the public who are shocked by the tragedy and who share in the grief of those who have lost loved ones. They are misled into believing things which are not true.

In a time of tragedy, it is hard to imagine more monstrous abuses. The tortures will continue until someone decides to put an end to them. Maybe a wise editorial hand needs to rest on someone’s shoulder.

In the meantime,  all that the rest of us can do is hope that somewhere in the midst of their self-absorption, the perpetrators of the abuse can realize the harm they are doing.

-srbp-

Atlantic Osprey

Background information, including a photograph of the vessel and last reported position, via marinetraffic,com.

The position appears to be current and shows the vessel anchored after circling the crash site.

-srbp-

Partial list of crash victims released

The Royal Canadian Mounted Police released a partial list of names of victims of the Cougar S-92 crash. 

Raw video of the RCMP newser is available from cbc.ca/nl.

Of the 17 victims, 12 names were released.  The other five have not been released at the request of the families. There are available at cbc.ca/nl and at The Telegram website.

-srbp-

14 March 2009

“Hard landing”: Cougar S-92 crash chronology

Adapted from The Telegram:  [BP notes in square brackets.]

Here's a brief timeline of the events of March 12 when Cougar Helicopters flight 91 crashed into the ocean. [The tick tock on this incident was pretty well established by mid-afternoon on the day of the crash, based on official sources.  Initial timings were converted from ZULU to Atlantic time in error but the sequence and other details were known publicly.  Times below are Newfoundland Daylight Savings Time (Universal Time/ZULU less 3.5), presented in 24 hour format.]

0940 local- Mayday call from the Cougar Helicopters flight. [According to the COUGAR website this scheduled flight launched at 0900 with destination given as “SRF-HIB”.  That translates as Seas Rose FPSO and Hibernia.   According to a company spokesperson on Friday, the pilot had indication of “zero oil pressure” in the main rotor gearbox and immediately began a return to base.

MAYDAY is a call indicated an emergency with imminent or immediate threat to the aircraft.  The fact that the pilot declared a MAYDAY reflects the seriousness of the issue and also may reflect the tight safety protocols of the company.  Were the issue of less significance, the pilot would have likely declared PAN PAN PAN which denotes a major issue but not one carrying an imminent or immediate threat.]

0948 local  - Helicopter ditches in the Atlantic 55 kilometres east of St. John's. [Position given in the CAPORS report filed the day of the crash shows it as approximately that distance from St. John’s.]

1000 local - Transportation Safety Board notified.

1012 local - Provincial Airlines ice patrol plane arrived and saw the helicopter inverted in the water. [This is a significant point to bear in mind for all subsequent discussion. The PAL aircraft  - directed to the scene as part of the SAR effort – arrived within 25 mins of ditching and reported one or two life rafts deployed, two survival suits in the water and an inverted aircraft.  Local weather has been reported as winds 20 knots with two to three metre seas.

Globe and Mail: “Of the two [people] in the water, one was observed face down. They saw no sign of flares or smoke or anyone waving from the life rafts,” he [PAL chairman Thomas Collingwood] said. “What we've learned from our crew is that they definitely had a hard landing.”

This suggests very strongly that contrary to initial rumour, the aircraft did not remain upright in the water for very long if at all.  The NTSB investigation including an analysis of flight data recorders will give a much more accurate picture, however, the initial details reported by credible observers seems clear in its implications. This also bears on questions that have been raised about the personal location transponders which reportedly did not activate.]

1034 local - Canadian Forces C-130 Hercules airplane arrived at the scene. [ From 413 Transport and Rescue Squadron, 14 Wing Greenwood Nova Scotia.]

1110 local - Cougar 61 arrived on scene, and shortly after hoisted survivor Robert Decker out of the water. Cougar flight 91 was no longer in sight. [COUGAR provides search and rescue (SAR) services.  According to official comment reported in local media, COUGAR was already tasked to provide back-up to 103 Squadron Gander while the squadron conducted training exercises near Sydney, Nova Scotia.  Even if 103 had been in Gander on 12 Mar 09, its aircraft would have been 30 mins flying time to St. John’s plus the time from St. John’s to the crash location.  COUGAR SAR was closest and arrived on scene 72 mins after ditching, if this timeline is correct.]

1128 local - The first Cormorant [CH-149] rescue helicopter arrived at the crash scene.

[Telegram] Source: Joint Rescue Co-ordination Centre

-srbp-

13 March 2009

News release: C-NLOPB REACTS TO LOSS OF COUGAR FLIGHT 491

The Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board (C-NLOPB), issued the following statement in relation to the loss of Cougar’s Flight 491 and its fifteen passengers and two crew on route from St. John’s to the Hibernia Platform and the Sea Rose FPSO.

The C-NLOPB Board and staff wish to express deepest sympathies to the families, friends and co-workers of the passengers and crew aboard Cougar’s Flight 491. This tragedy affects all who work in the offshore oil and gas sector and all of us as Newfoundlanders and Labradorians. Our hearts and prayers go out to them.

The C-NLOPB has been working very closely with responding agencies since the incident occurred and monitoring search and rescue efforts. The ditching of Cougar’s Flight 491 is an air accident and the Transportation Safety Board (TSB) and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) are the lead agencies in the investigation of this incident. The C-NLOPB will fully cooperate with these agencies in the investigation.

The C-NLOPB will also be an observer during the recovery operation. If there are lessons to be learned from this event for the C-NLOPB, we will ensure those lessons are implemented. T

he C-NLOPB has regulatory responsibility for safety on oil and gas facilities operating in the Newfoundland and Labrador offshore area. The C-NLOPB verifies that operators have appropriate safety plans in place. The guidelines for the development of the Safety Plan are on the Board’s website .

The basic safety requirements for working on an offshore oil and gas facility include:

• Successful completion of a medical exam

• Completion of a basic offshore survival course

• Personnel must use certified personal protective equipment and apparel when working offshore

• Also, personnel are provided with a flight suit which must be worn during transport.

The C-NLOPB is committed to overseeing offshore oil and gas activities to verify that safety is the first priority in offshore operations.

-srbp-

S-92 crash links

For those looking to keep track of the reporting on this story, here are the two best local sources:

1.  CBC Newfoundland and Labrador

  • Raw video
  • Comprehensive web page, including links to raw video, others news coverage, a live feed of the news conferences associated with the incident and a live online forum.

2.  The Telegram: the province’s largest daily newspaper has been updating regularly with short snippets in the daily news section [rss link]. They also have some of their “Top Story” coverage available as well online [rss link].  There is also some coverage in the “Local News” section [rss link]

-srbp-

Bullshit

Williams has been in contact with the Prime Minister and the province's federal representative Peter MacKay keeping them up to date on what's happening on the ground.

Extract from a voice of the cabinet minister “news” report

The search and rescue resources from Greenwood, Nova Scotia and Gander, Newfoundland currently deployed in response to the Cougar S-92 crash are from the Department of National Defence.

The Minister of National Defence is Peter MacKay.

He receives a daily briefing from the Canadian Forces on these sorts of things and can be briefed more often as necessary from people in direct contact with the pilots in the planes.  Heck, Pete can speak to them himself from his desk as they fly above the ocean if he wants.

The coast guard, transport department and all the other entirely federal agencies working on this tragedy report to – wait for it – the federal government.

The defence minister and the prime minister have access to detailed information on this incident in far greater detail and in a far broader scope than just about anyone else.

So what exactly did the Premier have to say that would keep the people with all the information first hand “up to date” with what’s happening on the ground?

Maybe the reporter(s) curious about the water depth at 47 26 05N 51 56 58W might add that to their list of questions to pose. Either that or someone could ask VOCM to check their understanding again of what the Premier actually said.

Either way, one of them is full of it.

-srbp-

Upright in a hurricane

This is raw video of what appears to be a sales demonstration of the S-92 for a Hungarian audience. This one is in military configuration, hence the H-92 reference.

At about the 2:41 mark, there is reference to flotation equipment on the aircraft both at the tail and the nose which is designed to keep the aircraft upright in a ditching.  The pilot (?) makes a comment about keeping the aircraft upright even in a hurricane.

The internal configuration for this aircraft is for military use.  Hence the demonstration refers to a crew of four and emphasises the ease with which the internal arrangement can be switched out to accommodate a purely cargo mission.

The civilian passenger configuration provides 19 seats in rows of three, set up with two on one side and one on the other. Passengers face forward, whereas in this military configuration, anyone in the main cabin sits with his or her back to the fuselage wall.

Reported weather conditions at the site at the time of crash were  two to three metre seas and winds at 20 knots.

-srbp-

Gearbox oil pressure implicated in S-92 crash

Cougar official Rick Burt, interviewed by CBC Radio the morning after the crash, indicated the aircraft commander declared a MAYDAY after getting a gauge indication of  “zero oil pressure” in the main gearbox.

-srbp-

Related:

1.  CADOR excerpt on CHI91 incident.

2.  Previous S-92 airworthiness directives involving the main gearbox and oil pressure issues.

12 March 2009

CADORS 2009A0212

From the Transport Canada’s incident report on the Cougar S-92 crash:
CHI91, S92, enroute from St. John’s (CYYT) to the Hibernia Oil Platform at 12:15Z, declared MAYDAY due to a main gear box oil pressure problem and requested to return to St. John’s. Air Traffic Control cleared the flight as requested. At 12:25Z aircraft ditched at position 472605N515658W.
The time reported here for the MAYDAY is 0945 hrs local, not 0910 hrs as reported in an evening media briefing. The ditching time is given as 0955 hrs local.

This is an initial report and may be subject to change.

Timeshift update:  The ZULU times are apparently correct.  Initial reports came from the SAR co-ordination centre based in Halifax which initially converted ZULU to Atlantic time out of habit.
-srbp-

If a little knowledge…

is a dangerous thing, reporter Brian Callahan’s comments this evening about search and rescue response to the Cougar S-92 accident is proving what you get from complete ignorance.

Morning after update:  Asking questions is one thing.  Making accusations directly or by innuendo is quite another.

Questions about search and rescue in the aftermath of the crash aren’t confined to Callahan.  One caller to CBC Radio yesterday afternoon and again the morning and a radio talk show host on another network tried to turn SAR into some kind of  “us” versus “them”, Newfoundland versus the mainland political racket.

“Irresponsible” would be the most polite word for these sorts of ill-informed or ill-considered comments.  Obnoxious might be a better word for it.

The North Atlantic is a cruel and difficult place.  Working offshore in any industry is inherently dangerous and even with good training and excellent standards and equipment tragedies will occur. That doesn’t mean we accept the tragedies;  it merely means we have to always bear in mind that reality.

The people who work SAR – private sector, coast guard and the air force – are highly trained and they work tirelessly to provide the very best search and rescue service that is humanly possible.

The ones I know are anything but as cavalier and irresponsible as the people making the comments about SAR over the past 24 hours. 

 

-srbp-

Sikorsky S-92

1.  Australia:  Airworthiness directive AD/S-92/4 dated 2/2007 re: tail gearbox.

2. Australia: Airworthiness directive AD/S-92/3 dated 2/2007 re: main rotor gearbox. Mandates replacement of main gearbox housing at 2700 hours time-in-service.

3.  Australia: Airworthiness directive AD/S-92/2: “This AD requires replacing the MGB lubrication/scavenge pump vespel spline adapters before further flight, and thereafter, replacing them at certain intervals”.

4.  Sikorsky signs gearbox maintenance deal with VIHAG, Cougar parent.

5.  The S-92 was a candidate to replace the Sea King in the role of Marine Corps presidential helicopter transport.  it lost out to the Merlin/Cormorant under the designation US-101.

6.  The Canadian defence department selected the S-92 to replace the aging Sea King fleet.  The program is behind schedule.

-srbp-

Government pollster misses more interesting story

Here’s a great comment attributed to the provincial government’s pollster, CRA’s Don Mills, by voice of the cabinet minister:

Mills says Williams draws support from all pockets of the province, regardless of the party voters normally support.

That’s a really interesting claim for Mills to make given that he has absolutely no data on which to base it. 

Firstly, in his quarterly survey CRA doesn’t ask people which party they “normally” support. Heck, they don’t even provide demographic or geographic data so that we could all get a better understanding of what is going on out there among potential voters.  They could be polling 100% on George Street on Saturday night or – less facetiously – polling overwhelmingly in the traditional Tory base of support in and around St. John ‘s for all we would know.

Secondly, given that Mills’ polling is wildly out of whack with the results of the last provincial election, he really should wonder whether or not he could even infer “normal” party support from his polling.

Third, even if he possibly could draw that conclusion reasonably by inference, the CRA data  - presented as CRA presents it suggests a much more interesting story about a drop in support for his client.

Mills doesn’t talk about that aspect of his client’s numbers, though. In fact he’s been known to issue news releases making claims his own data doesn’t really support, once you take out the distorting of discussing only decideds.

One of the things to notice about the November 2008 poll is that it showed the lowest PC party numbers in recent times and also happens to be considerably more accurate (as a function of margin of error) than any poll Mills has done recently.  The one just released had a margin of error almost double the one from November.

Fourth, if you wanted to do some longer term analysis, even accepting CRA poll results as presented as being valid, you can get something a lot more interesting than just saying “He’s more popular than Jesus.” Incidentally, the Alex Marland quoted in the VOCM story that started this is the same guy mentioned in that link. Take note too of the frequency of CRA polls with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9%.

Even with CRA’s own release you see an interesting couple of things that Mills won’t mention.  Rather than use his own data and generate some interesting news, he seems to favour stroking the client in public.

Since February last year support for the Provincial Conservatives has dropped eight percentage points.  It’s an unmistakeable trend. That’s roughly a 10% drop, for what it’s worth.

At the same time, and given that the poll just taken shows the lowest level of undecideds in the past 12 months, the Liberal party support has gone up by eight percentage points, nine if you include the drop in the second quarter of 2008. Soaring economy, bags of money and public support for the ruling party goes down.  A rump opposition party with a temporary leader picks up steadily.

Not only that but this is best performance by the Liberal party since November of 2005.

That trending comes despite the current governing party holding onto the kind of popular satisfaction numbers you’d only see in North Korea.

Yep.  Even as crude an instrument as a CRA quarterly poll can yield way more interesting stuff than what gets reported if you just look.  Part of seeing that would be to look past the old story of popularity or saying stuff for which there is no data to support and actually analysing the information that you do have.

Would that get government’s pollster a nasty phone call one wonders?

-srbp-

11 March 2009

Dysfunction and disconnect

How many times does a government get to do and say completely contradictory or unfounded things before people wonder about the competence of the people involved?

1.  "The Government of Newfoundland and Labrador is unable to support this at this time on the basis of very genuine concerns that our province’s issues [shrimp tariff, seal hunt, custodial management] may not be safeguarded or dealt with in an appropriate way by the Federal Government."  Government of Newfoundland and Labrador news release, February 20, 2009.

2.   “It is clear that the efforts of our government, in collaboration with those of the Government of Canada and industry, are indeed paying off,” continued Minister Rideout.”  Major progress made on European Union shrimp tariff, Government of Newfoundland and Labrador news release, July 11, 2007.

3.   "That's how things have worked for us over the years, and we've got shafted as a result of it," he said, claiming that Newfoundland fish stocks have been traded off by the feds. Danny Williams, comments to reporters, quoted in “Williams ponders own deal with EU”, The Telegram, March 7, 2009. [Not on line] This is a commonly held belief of some people in the province but there is no evidence to that such trades ever occurred.

4. "We strongly endorse your commitment for bilateral agreements and look forward to working with the federal government to achieve a bilateral agreement with the EU." Innovation minister Trevor Taylor,  August 11, 2008, letter to then federal international trade minister Michael Fortier, quoted in “Province backed trade talks: 2008 letter”, The Telegram, March 10, 2009.

5.  “If that means that there's an agreement between Canada and 12 jurisdictions, and there has to be a separate agreement negotiated with Newfoundland and Labrador, then I'm fine with that." Williams, quoted in The Telegram, March 7, 2009.

Williams reportedly conveyed his concerns to Quebec premier jean Charest in the latter’s capacity as chairman of the council of provincial premiers.  Charest has been one of the driers of the EU trade deal since he first proposed it after the annual economic conference in Davos, 2007.

6.  "The EU doesn't negotiate trade agreements with provinces or federations," MUN's Steven Wolinetz said. “Prof puzzled by premier’s call for own EU trade deal”, The Telegram, March 9, 2009.

7.   "I do understand from behind the scenes that this is actually causing some very, very serious concerns from people in the EU," Williams said. quoted in The Telegram, March 7, 2009.

8.  “It would have been ideal if all provinces had joined” in Friday’s pro-trade declaration, [EU official] Jan Sliva said in a statement. “But in our view those provinces and territories that did join represent the majority of Canada’s trade and investment potential.” quoted in “N.L. won’t stop Canada-Europe trade talks: EU”, CanWest, March 10, 2009.

Given all that, it would seem logical to conclude that the provincial government actually isn’t interested in resolving its three big issues.  After all, they cannot be resolved if the provincial government refuses to address them or has no means to address them given its refusal to work on an obvious mechanism to resolve them.

And hey, it’s not like Newfoundland and Labrador doesn’t have a significant interest in expanded trade with the European Union.  After the United States, the EU is Newfoundland and Labrador’s largest foreign trade partner.

-srbp-

10 March 2009

The poll numbers – first quarter 2009

CRAWe’ve bashed the Corporate Research Associates polling around in these parts for quite some time. 

Since since it’s the only game in town, however, it’s what we have to work with.

Here are some quickie observations on the most recent poll:

1.  The margin of error for the most recent poll is plus or minus 4.9%.  For November, 2008, the MoE was 2.8% and for the ones before that, it was 3.5%. Bear that in mind as you go through media coverage that talks about things being where they were.

2.  The chart at left adjusts the CRA numbers to present them as a percentage of respondents rather than adjusting  them as a percentage of decideds.

3.  If we accept that the undecideds dropped seven percentage points from November, note that both the Liberals and the Progressive Conservatives picked up equally from that.  The extra point came from the New Democrats.

4.  The most accurate of all CRA polls  - measured in terms of the margin of error - was the one in November.  The MoE was plus or minus 2.8%.

5.  There’s something slightly counter-intuitive about these numbers. At a time of growing economic uncertainty – including some sharp blows in this province – one wouldn’t expect party choice for the governing party to go up. Ditto for the satisfaction numbers which remain at astronomical levels. Look at the satisfaction numbers and it doesn’t get any less curious; you just wouldn’t expect 88% of people in the province to be mostly or completely satisfied with government giving all that’s gone on.

Doesn’t matter the party.  Doesn’t matter the leader.  When things are bad or going bad, there just isn’t as much generosity toward government. 10,000 ticked off  nurses and their families should amount for something, shouldn’t they?  How about a 1,000 paper workers?  Apparently not.

6. Poll goosing.  CRA was in the field beginning on February 9.  They stopped polling on February 28th. Oddly enough, when asked about it by a talk show host on February 19, the premier knew CRA had started polling the week before.

He also offered the view that if he was going to goose the poll he would have started goosing the week before polling started.

Interesting.

The Equalization racket started in late January even though by all indications the provincial government had the numbers on Equalization and offsets from early November onwards.  Anyone else find that news conference in the middle of the night thing odd, especially since government had already planned to scrum the finance minister the day after the federal budget came down?

Notice all the feisty, fighting talk running into that first week of February.  Take that as sort of the background noise to the month.  Nothing like a racket with Ottawa to get the juices flowing in polling season.

Then there’s the Lower Churchill project.  The infeed to Soldier’s Pond – an integral part of the project – is shaved off for some inexplicable reason and submitted to its own environmental review process starting on January 30. On top of that there were two more major Lower Churchill announcements in February, one of which was merely to say the Crown corporation had solicited six expressions of interest;  not received:  asked for.

Government decided to try playing nice with the nurses.  They did it very publicly in February a week into polling.

Let’s not forget the “historic” infrastructure announcement made – you guessed it – right smack in the middle of polling. That was followed by a few speeches to give the thing a few legs.

Overall, though, February was a very busy month for the provincial cabinet.  Lots of good news and happy talk.  Marinas, fur farms, air ambulances, all announced in February.

7.  Rolling Stones Update:  Can’t get no satisfaction? We’ve had some issues with CRA polling before and the tendency to generate results that leaving you scratching your head.

One of those would be “satisfaction”.

Let’s leave aside entirely the problem with the question -   what exactly is the difference between “mostly” and completely”? – and look at the relationship between the satisfaction number on the one hand and the party support number on the other.

Without any prompting one might suspect that satisfaction goes with support.  If you are mostly or completely satisfied with government performance, then you’d be inclined to support the government party.

Not so, according to CRA.  In Nova Scotia, for example, people are very happy with Rodney’s government but they plan to vote for the Grits or Dippers.

We are not talking small numbers.  The Liberal and NDP vote numbers here are running fairly steadily at a combined 64% of decideds for the past three quarters.  The satisfaction numbers have been running in the 50s.  So if you believe CRA, a majority of Nova Scotians like their Tory government but a larger number wants them out of office.

Huh?

It gets fruitier when you look at the Tories coming in second or – in the latest poll – third place among parties.  People are happy with the job government is doing but they don’t want to vote for the government party.

Those odd numbers don’t just apply to Nova Scotia.  Satisfaction with Roger Grimes was decently in the 50s pretty much right up until the end.  Take a gander at CRA’s polling and there’s a good likelihood you’ll find lots of examples of this completely incomprehensible correlation.  According to CRA, Nova Scotians like the job a government is doing but want to throw the bums out.

Doesn’t make sense.

-srbp-

Baby Talk

A news release on Tuesday from the provincial government agency that collects and analyses health statistics showed the number of live births in the province in 2008 at 4905, the highest number “in any year since 1999”.

That’s true but more than a few people wondered why the Newfoundland and Labrador Centre for Health Information took the arbitrary year 1999 aside from the fact it is convenient to measure by decade. The other thing people wondered is why the agency would editorialise with the claim that “[t]his increase in the number of births is a positive step toward population growth for our province.”

live birthsThe analysts at NLCHI ought to know that the number of live births is just one factor in population trending.  In addition, they would need to understand the cause for the increase, year over year, to see if this is actually something other than an anomaly in what has otherwise been a fairly steady decline in the number of live births to mothers whose residence is Newfoundland and Labrador.

A look at NLCHI figures on live births going back to 1995 (chart, left) shows the long term trending.

The number of births has been declining for some time.

The number for 2008 is the highest number of births over the past decade, except for 1999.  There were more than 5,000 live births that year.

The figures for 2006 and 2007 aren’t available, apparently. NLCHI didn’t release any data and only described the 2008 figures as being more than 300 higher than 2007.  Statistics Canada figures cover the period up to 2006 and they are the same as the NLCHI figures.

It’s not hard to understand the declining number of births in the 1990s.  Outmigration in the late 1990s took about 70,000 people out of the population, most of them in their child-bearing years.

The increase over the last four years is most likely due to a general improvement in the economy.  The population continued to decline annually throughout the period and only showed an overall increase within the past year or so.

crude birth rate A look at the crude birth rate (live births per thousand of population) gives another perspective. The birth rate declined precipitously as the population dropped among people of child-bearing age.

After the major outmigration ended, the rate stabilized again and until the economy really started to surge the rate stayed relatively low.

One of the things to bear in mind when looking at these numbers is the inherent lag in births from time of conception. That sounds like a penetrating insight into the obvious but since some people are undoubtedly going to credit the government’s pro-natal policy for the increase the time lag has to be factored in.

Children born in late 2008 reflect parental decisions (even allowing for surprises) taken in the early part of the year.  Children born in the first few months of 2008 were conceived before the bootie call announcement in September 2007.  That time lag is the reason why the overall economic climate might have more of an impact on the decision to have children than a cash bounty of $1,000 for each live birth and $100 per month per child for the first year after birth.

Statistics Update:  The number crunching labradore picks up on the decline thingy.  He points out that the number of births in the province has been declining every year since 1956 or so.  There have been periodic upticks but the trend is decidedly downward.

Skeptics update: To go with that, there’s a Bond Papers post from February that discusses some comments the finance minister made to Voice of the Cabinet Minister during polling season.

At that time, we were skeptical that the 4900 figure was real.  We are still a little curious about the number and the timing of the release.

Halfway through 2008 and the preliminary figures showed everything on track to deliver about 4500.  That’s an even more curious figure since the cash allocated by government for the program – which includes adoptions not accounted for in all the live birth numbers – works out to be 4500 children annually. 

But as for 2008, even allowing for season variation and the nine month time lag, that would mean all the extra kiddies were hatched in the second half of the year. Makes you scratch your head a bit.

And if all that weren’t enough, consider this line from the provincial government’s main statistics agency:

The number of births has been trending downward for four decades because of declining fertility rates and, more recently, a decline in the number of women of child-bearing age.

That pretty much says it all.  The population of people willing and able to have babies has been getting relatively smaller in this province. We’d have to go into a more detailed demographic breakout to see if there is an echo generation showing up.  That’s the offspring of a previous boom suddenly showing up having children.  It happened about 20-odd years ago as the children of baby boomers started reaching child-bearing age. We might be just at the leading edge of time when the baby-boomers’ grandchildren are starting to have babies.

As labradore noted at the time, since the population in child-bearing age has been going on, a baby crop of 4900 would mean that fewer people are having more children.

Sorta runs against what you’d expect.

 

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God save us…

From mainlanders who spent a bit of time in St. John’s at some point and think they understand Newfoundland.

For the most part, the only thing worth saying about Senator George Baker’s comments is that they have been matched in their shallowness by the editorial commentary in some of the country’s newspapers.

If Dan Leger actually knew anything about Newfoundland – and maybe even Labrador – he’d realise that Senator Baker is largely the pre-occupation of the mainlanders. 

Outside of the local crowd that stand eternally ready to promote their fantasy of victimisation, the rest of us had better things to do than sweat the rise of a bloc-head party.

We’ve heard all this before.

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09 March 2009

November 2008 Churchill Falls fire knocked out two of 11 generating units

A fire last fall at Churchill Falls knocked out two of the 11 generating units at the facility, Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro confirmed for Bond Papers Monday.

Repairs began immediately after the fire and one of the two disabled generators returned to service in February.  Repairs continue on the other.

The fire damaged cables connecting the underground transformers to transformers on the surface. There were no injuries.  The fire was contained on the surface by Churchill Falls fire and security staff.  Newspaper reports at the time indicated that the facility was evacuated as a safety precaution.

An investigation into the fire is expected to be completed shortly at which time further details will be released.

A January 16 story in the Montreal Gazette warned readers to be cautious about their power consumption. Winter is normally a time of heavy demand in Quebec.  As the Gazette reported:

Hydro's provincial grid is stretched especially tight these days because two turbines in Churchill Falls, N.L., that normally supply Hydro-Québec with 1,000 megawatts were damaged by fire in the fall.

CFLCo’s Churchill Falls facility generates in excess of 5400 megawatts.

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Rex should check his video archives

Rex Murphy, in his Globe and Mail column, Saturday, March 7:

Mr. Harper is not Canada. Mr. Williams is not Newfoundland.

Danny Williams, from Rex Murphy’s profile for The National after the October 2007 Newfoundland and Labrador general election:

I think I represent in my own heart and soul the hearts and souls of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians.

The one may not be Canada but as for the other, for l’etat terre-neuvien?

C’est lui.

Well, at least in his own mind.

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07 March 2009

Bursting bubbles everywhere

last year the provincial government budget for 2008 forecast the provincial economy would shrink by 2.2%. Even with the economic down-turn, the economy seems poised to grow by that much.

But that was last year.

And the provincial government number was a forecast.

In 2009, the economy in Newfoundland and Labrador will shrink.  There are no bubbles to protect any economy from the recession.

The Conference Board of Canada puts the drop at 2.6% and for good reason:

Despite a positive outlook for consumer spending and construction, Newfoundland and Labrador’s economy will decline in 2009 by 2.6 per cent, the worst performance of all the provinces. Oil production continues to fall off at mature sites and the closure of the newsprint mill in Grand Falls will hurt manufacturing output.

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