Memorable Christopher Hitchens (II) #nlpoli

“The noble title of "dissident" must be earned rather than claimed; it connotes sacrifice and risk rather than mere disagreement.”

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Nalcor and the Muskrat alternatives #nlpoli #cdnpoli

Nalcor’s capital works submission to the public utilities board for 2012 included a last-minute addition of an upgrade to the power lines that connect the Avalon peninsula to the rest of the island. The submission is dated September 22.

That’s really important because the Bay d’Espoir/Exploits generating complex has a large surplus of electricity.  Nalcor can’t get that electricity to where it’s needed because the existing lines across the Isthmus of Avalon are at capacity.

The problem is actually a bit more complex than that.  As Nalcor’s supplementary capital works submission puts it:

The heavy loading on the eastern portion of the system is coupled with the incentive to provide least‐cost power to customers by minimizing Holyrood production and maximizing production from hydroelectric resources located in Bay d’Espoir and west. Constant monitoring of the load on the eastern portion of the system is therefore required. Thermal load limits on the lines must be strictly enforced to avoid unacceptable line sag and/or potential conductor damage. Further loading pressures will be placed upon the Bay d’Espoir East system with the addition of the Vale processing plant at Long Harbour and has already occurred due to the loss of load and net hydroelectric generation increase attributed to the closure of the Abitibi Bowater paper mill in Grand Falls-Windsor. (pp. 1-2)

On top of that consider that the existing power lines are all part of the major island electrification projects completed between 1965 and 1968.

The estimated total cost of the new line would be $209 million.  The PUB submission anticipates work starting in 2012 with completion in 2017.

As it turned out, Nalcor and the PUB have deferred consideration of the new transmission line.  Both the Board and Nalcor are involved in extensive regulatory reviews, including Muskrat Falls.  And, as a December 6 Nalcor letter to PUB lawyer Maureen Greene notes, it “is our understanding that the Muskrat Falls Review is of high priority to government.”

There are a few things to note about this:

• Shifting priorities:  When discussion of this line came up a couple of years ago in questioning in a House of Assembly committee, Nalcor officials told the committee that it wasn’t thinking about upgrading the line because the Muskrat Falls project would take care of it.  Evidently something has changed.  That’s most likely…
• Muskrat Falls delays:  The public utilities board hearings are taking way longer than Nalcor expected.  Even if they finish by the end of the current fiscal year (March 31, 2012), anything beyond a complete blessing will cause further political problems for a project that can’t afford any more political problems. Or, it could be …
• Muskrat Falls will die:  Nalcor could also be hedging its bets against the project being canned altogether.  The capital works supplement includes this line in the rationale:  “Given that the Lower Churchill Project has yet to receive final project sanction…”.  Nalcor is apparently no longer willing to defer discussion of the line as they were a year or so ago.
• Muskrat Falls is a political project:  Since it started, the Lower Churchill has been driven by political demands to meet political needs. Nalcor’s reference in its correspondence to government priorities pretty much confirms that point for anyone who still believes Muskrat Falls is about delivering consumers the power they need at the lowest price.

As for the overall question of priorities, the PUB took pains in its letter acknowledging deferment of the new line that the project will require significant attention including a possible hearing.  The line is the most expensive single project Nalcor has brought forward since the company came fully under the PUB’s regulatory authority in 1996. The PUB letter states that – under the circumstances – the board couldn’t guarantee approval in 2012.

You might interpret that as a simple statement of fact.  But you might also read it as a reminder to Nalcor that if it needs to get this project done, the company might need to sort through its priorities again.

Don’t be surprised if Nalcor does just that early in the New Year.

- srbp -

Memorable Christopher Hitchens #nlpoli

“To 'choose' dogma and faith over doubt and experience is to throw out the ripening vintage and to reach greedily for the Kool-Aid.”

That line – from God is not great – would apply equally to politics in Newfoundland and Labrador since 2003.

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Party Political Finance: much more to read #nlpoli #cdnpoli

The Telegram took a very light look on Saturday at the most recent figures on political contributions released by the provincial elections office a couple of months ago.

For some reason, the Telly singled out Aliant for its record of donations even though the telecommunications company is by no means the big story in the 2010 figures or indeed of the recent public record of party donations.

If you want a more detailed analysis, then check these posts from SRBP and labradore:

• labradore:  “A tale of two cities”.  Compares St. John’s and Halifax and patterns of political donations. (16 October 2011)
• labradore:  “The tradition continues”  (08 October 2011) The Royal Newfoundland Constabulary Association likes to give money to the province’s Tories.
• labradore:  “A donation has been made on your behalf”.  Municipalities in the province make political donations to the governing Conservatives and the municipal politicians behind the use of public funds don’t seem troubled at the idea. (15 September 2011)
• labradore:  “The amazing, atrophying democracy (II)” 
• labradore:  “The amazing atrophying democracy” A district by district assessment of donation patterns, especially the districts where no one gave money at all. (07 September 2011)
• SRBP:  “The joy of political giving:  look for the union label” (07 September 2011)  Forget Aliant.  The single largest donation in 2010 was the 20K a Toronto-based union gave to the provincial New Democrats.
• SRBP:   “The joy of political giving:  if you want to build it, they will give”  (07 September 2011)  The province’s construction industry had a very interesting pattern of political donations.
• SRBP:  “The joy of political giving:  punch in the bake edition”  Contributions to the governing Tory party included the company that produces Republic of Doyle, and which gets quite a hefty financial contribution itself from the provincial government to help make the series.

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The Hitchens Method #nlpoli #cdnpoli

There are plenty of people out there who pat themselves on the back for telling it like it is, for calling it as they see it.

You know they do it because they relentlessly point it out to you.

They are brave.

They are fearless in delivering their opinions.

They cannot stop telling you that.

You all know them.

Closer examination invariably reveals they are full of shite.

Not so Christopher Hitchens, as Paul Wells makes plain in his obituary for a man so wonderfully described during his lifetime as a public intellectual:

His method was simple:

1. Read everything.

2. Draw your own conclusions.

…

Expanding the range of his inquiry, digging deeper, engaging with the minds he admired most. Hitchens spent much of his life offering everyone his answers on any subject, but they would not have mattered so much if he had not also been such a ravenous asker of questions.

And the world would have been so much duller a place if Hitchens had not told us what he found out in so eloquent a way.

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Dunderdale leads from the rear #nlpoli

Premier Kathy Dunderdale wants everyone in the province to get involved in the fishery debate.  Doesn’t matter who you are.  Doesn’t matter what you want.  Get in and have your say on the future of the resource we all own.

CBC’s Azzo Rezzori says Kathy is staying out of the way. [Story starts at about 9:00 of this video link]

Others would call it what it is:  chickenshit.

In a scrum with reporters on Friday, Dunderdale rattled off all the penetrating insights into the obvious one can find about the fishing industry in the province.  The Telegram’s James McLeod has a neat account of it for those who want to catch up.

Yes, Kathy, we all know the problems.  And yes, we know the solutions because, yes, they’ve been talked about, discussed, debated and ignored for decades.

Yes, Kathy, we know people are using the fishery to their own ends.  Yes, we know lots of people are being manipulated.

What Dunderdale conveniently omits is that the provincial government has a role to play.  After all, the law in this province gives the provincial government considerable power to manipulate the fishery and the people who depend on it for their living.

What Dunderdale conveniently forgets is that successive administrations haven’t been shy about doing just that.  The one Kathy has been involved with since 2003 has been one of the most interfering and manipulative administrations in a long list of them.

What Kathy deliberately omits to mention is the process – the MOU – that the Tory administration started and then rejected because they were afraid of the political consequences. 

The costs don’t frighten them.  That was just a bullshit excuse the fisheries  minister used.  Kathy has more money sitting in the bank  - doing nothing  - than some of her predecessors got in total from their own means to pay for everything the government does.

Billions of dollars.

So when Kathy Dunderdale clucks about the tragedy of manipulating people and the tired attitudes about the need for everyone people to come together to find a solution, she is being worse than the worst kind of manipulative character she laments.

Kathy has the power to change things.

Kathy has the power to set things right.

Kathy refuses to get involved.

That’s not just chickenshit.

That’s immoral.

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The Traffic the Grinch couldn’t Steal #nlpoli

Muppets, lawyers and politicians.

Problems in the fishery, bad grammar and blatant political patronage.

Just another week in the live action edition of the National Midnight Star, otherwise known as politics in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Last week’s top 10 most read posts at SRBP:

1. A bad week for Penashue
2. Change in the fishery
3. The Crowd in the Dark
4. Globe and Mail goes American
5. Danger:  Lawyer at Work
6. Muskrat Falls deal will succeed:  Nalcor boss
7. Ball takes over as Liberal leader
8. Connies pork up offshore board
9. A grain of salt
10. Yes, it IS a Muppet movie, ya wingnut

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For the record… #nlpoli

Liberal leader Dwight Ball’s remarks on taking on the leadership:

The Liberal Party has a rich history in Newfoundland and Labrador and I’m proud to be a part of it.

That being said, we have much work ahead. I consider myself a team builder, and I believe teambuilding is what we need right now.

We need to reach out to Newfoundlanders and Labradorians and listen to their hopes and dreams.

I plan on spending a lot of time on the road engaging with the grassroots of our party and encouraging new interest in what we have to offer.

Additionally, we need a debt reduction plan to help rebuild the party  As a businessmen, I know the burden that debt can have on an organization and my first priority as Liberal leader will be to get our debt to a manageable level.

I like to call it the common sense approach – reach out, listen and manage debt.

These will be my priorities as I assume the Liberal leadership and help create a credible alternative to the current government. 

There will be challenges ahead, no doubt. But it is through these challenges that we will realize a better, brighter future for the next generation of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians 

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Muskrat Falls deal will succeed: Nalcor boss #nlpoli #nspoli

“I’m optimistic the project is going to succeed,” Nalcor Energy chief executive Ed Martin told the Chronicle-Herald recently.

The delay in finishing the negotiations means that, as the CH put it, “the details under negotiation are being tapered to fit with the announced terms [sheet].”

Tapered to fit.

Great image.

The article just relates some information most SRBP readers would already know.  It also contains one comment that would make you wince. The comment reflects the level of inaccurate or misleading information out there about who will pay what for Muskrat Falls power.

The cost of Lower Churchill power to Nova Scotia has never been defined.

Nalcor projects it will cost 16.4 cents per kilowatt hour for consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador. That’s up from the current rate of 11 cents but lower than the projected costs if the province were to stick with its oil-fired plants.

That first sentence isn’t true.  The term sheet signed last fall makes it clear:

• Emera gets a block of power guaranteed each year in exchange for their upfront cost of the link to Nova Scotia.  In effect, the cost of that electricity is zero cents per kilowatt hour.
• Beyond that, Emera gets the right to buy additional power for a cost of something around nine cents per kwh. That’s based on memory and subject to adjustment.

As such, Nova Scotians could actually see no change in their domestic electricity rates at all. 

The second paragraph compares apples and oranges.  The 16.4 cents figure is what Kathy Dunderdale cited in 2010 as the upper range of the wholesale cost of making electricity at Muskrat Falls.  The lower end of the range was about 14 cents and that’s the figure the government has cited consistently.

But remember:  it’s a wholesale price and – more importantly – it’s an estimate.  If Muskrat Falls goes the way of every other government project since 2003 it will be over budget by more than 50%.

The 11 cents figure is the current retail price to consumers.  it includes Nalcor’s blended cost from existing generation, most of which was paid off years ago or, in the most recent examples, for free as a result of government’s expropriation of private sector generating facilities.  That figure also includes money for the electricity distributor and a tidy profit for both Nalcor and the Fortis-owned distributor.

In the future, consumers in this province will pay all of that plus they’ll have to cover the full cost of Muskrat Falls.  That conclusion is based on repeated statements by Nalcor officials.  That’s why Nova Scotians are getting free electricity up front and why they can buy extra power at a sweet discount.  People in Newfoundland and Labrador will already have paid for it.

In addition to that, Newfoundland and Labrador consumers will now also have to pay a chunk to Emera plus a profit since Emera will now operate a portion of the provincial distribution system. Not bad, eh?

Well, unless you are a consumer in Newfoundland and Labrador.

And while Nalcor estimates all of this will cost less than the alternatives, the simple truths are these:

• Nalcor has never released detailed cost analysis of what this project will do to consumers.
• Nalcor hasn’t costed all the alternatives.  That became clear during the joint environmental review panel hearings.
• Nalcor can’t tell what this project will cost consumers in Newfoundland and labrador because they don’t know.
• Whatever they wind up paying, it will be a lot more than 16 cents per kilowatt hour and it will always be more than any export consumers.

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Ball takes over as Liberal leader #nlpoli

The first sign of substantive and positive change in quite a while:  Dwight Ball takes the job of leading the Liberal Party of Newfoundland and Labrador.

The fact he is also interested in leading the party beyond the next leadership convention is also a good sign.

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Yes, it IS a Muppet movie, ya wingnut #nlpoli #cdnpoli

Just when you thought they could not get any more loopy, the fried folks at Fox manage to turn a Muppet movie into a tool of “class warfare to brainwash our kids”.

You.

cannot.

make.

this.

stuff.

up.

- srbp -

A bad week for Penashue #nlpoli #cdnpoli

Poor Peter Penashue.

First, the federal Conservative intergovernmental affairs minister gets hammered for stupidly appointing his campaign manager to a position on the offshore regulatory board even though the guy isn’t qualified for the job. The SRBP post spawned a raft of comments in all sorts of places across the province about Penashue’s shameless decision to pork-up his buddy.

Then, on Wednesday, Liberal member of parliament Scott Simms outs Penashue for personally calling federal employees in Penashue’s riding to assure them they are safe from job cuts or transfers. Penashue apparently didn’t call any other federal employees in the province.

You know Penashue got caught doing something wrong.  As CBC reported:

Penashue walked past reporters after question period Wednesday and did not comment.

Since bad news comes in threes sometimes, it all makes you wonder what little rocket Penashue will get up his derriere next.

- srbp -

The Newfoundland Spring #nlpoli

Pay attention to some of the comments about the fishery the past couple of weeks and you’ll here talk about how we need to change the model. 

For example, labour federation boss Lana Payne has talked about the failure of what she called the “corporate model”.  When OCI boss Martin Sullivan says the fishery is broken, he’s basically talking about the “model”, too. 

What they both are referring to is how the government deals with the fishery.  The current “model” is not corporate as Payne claims so much as it is corporatist:  heavy state control irrespective of  economic rationality or public morality.

What frightens Payne and McCurdy more than anything else is that the change they and their predecessors have fought against relentlessly is finally here. What they have been able to rely on for so long is the threat of political catastrophe for any politician who dared to think about cutting the number of fish plants and fish plant workers down to a level where the workers could make a decent wage from their hard work alone.

Don’t believe it?

In a stint Wednesday on the province’s morning radio call-in show, McCurdy stated flatly that given his druthers he’d rather see people in Marystown and Port Union squeeze out enough work to qualify for employment insurance rather than have the plants close.  He tossed in full-time work for the plant in Fortune knowing that it isn’t really possible to do the two things together.

But just look at the front end of that.  It’s the essence of McCurdy’s position:  keep everything the way it is, even if  - as everyone including McCurdy knows – that idea isn’t really viable any more.  Keeping a few hundred people stamped up, collecting employment insurance for most of the year and bringing home poverty wages is better than any realistic alternative.

McCurdy wants to keep a system that promoted the overfishing that decimated the industry in the first place.

The people McCurdy expects to pick up the tab for his little scam are the taxpayers of Newfoundland and Labrador.

One can hardly imagine a more morally bankrupt position.

Thankfully, it seems like some politicians are finally getting the message. Sure you have guys like noob Liberal member of the House of Assembly Jim Bennett who is pushing another pile of outmoded, outdated ideas.  Bennett needs to stop hanging out with Jim Morgan and his buddies.

But another gang of politicians is finally standing up to the union shakedown and the bullshit conspiracy theories from people like Gus Etchegary.

Give the guy his full due: fisheries minister Darin King maybe be looking stressed but he is sounding tough. Maybe he is heartened by the people in Fortune who turned up on the news Wednesday night attacking McCurdy for undermining their chance at full-time work. Chainsaw Earle is apparently discovering that chainsaws buck when they hit a knot.

A couple of weeks ago, Ocean Choice International decided to close two fish plants.  They change the company started is long overdue.  The union and the provincial government have had plenty of time to come up with a workable plan to deal with fisheries reform.  They failed.

Expect the change that OCI has started to sweep the province.  This could wind up being the most significant political transformation in the province’s history.  The fishery, after all, is tied inextricably to the political and social fabric of the province.

The only real losers in the changes that are coming will be the people who profited from the old order.  You can tell because they are fighting so savagely against change.

- srbp -

Globe and Mail goes American #cdnpoli

From the Globe’s blog and a post about American comedian Jimmy Kimmel:

Late-night host Jimmy Kimmel recently asked parents to give their kids lousy presents a couple weeks before Christmas….

There’s a little word missing there.

“of”

As in “a couple of” something.

You will hear that sort of construction all the time, especially from Americans, and increasingly you will see it in print as well.

But it is grammatically wrong.

And no, it is not concerning to your humble e-scribbler.

It is of concern to him, as in the abuse of the language pisses him off, just as it might be of concern that the Globe has fired its editors or hired people who do not know about proper English.

Here endeth the rant.

- srbp -

Chainsaw Earle #nlpoli

Fisheries union Earle McCurdy took a political chainsaw to the provincial government on Tuesday, accusing the governing Conservatives of buying “right into [OCI’s] sales pitch without there being any evidence of trying to negotiate anything better.”

McCurdy claimed that if OCI gets permission to export fish for processing, then the province is “on the brink of a major loss of control over public resources.”

According to the Telegram:

McCurdy argued that corporate greed was behind the plant closures, and the government should be pressing more aggressively to protect processing jobs in the province.

For his part, fisheries minister Darin King accused McCurdy of playing games. 

As CBC reported:

"Playing games, spreading propaganda and not keeping the best interest of the people in mind is not the way to go about it," King told reporters.

"I think that this is exactly what the FFAW is doing, and I believe wholeheartedly that it is inappropriate, irresponsible, and not certainly in the best interests of the members of the union."

King is right on everything except one point.  McCurdy may not be acting in the best interests of the plant workers or the people of the province.

But Earle doesn’t get paid to act in his members’ best interests, nor  does he give a toss for the best interests of the fishery or the province.

He can take a chainsaw to anyone and to anything he wants.  Facts don’t matter.  Worst case scenario:  the plants close, a few of his members are out of work but another bunch are working full-time to pay dues.  McCurdy looks like he fought for the guys on the unemployment line. He gets to keep his job.

All we are seeing is lowest common denominator politics of the worst kind.

And McCurdy’s good at it.

- srbp -

A grain of salt #nlpoli

Around this time of year the country’s major banks issue their economic assessments of the current year and their forecasts of the coming one.

Royal Bank issued the most recent one.  Not surprisingly, the bank’s economists are forecasting that the provinces that are most heavily dependent on natural resources will do quite well.  Saskatchewan and Alberta will lead the country in economic growth, with Newfoundland and Labrador in fourth place.

RBC’s forecast for 2012 and 2013 has Newfoundland and Labrador in the same relative position.  Natural resource prices and capital construction are driving things.  Over the next couple of years, new mineral developments will offset declines in oil production, according to RBC.  While their reasons may be slightly different, BMO and Scotiabank’s forecasts are all generally similar to RBC’s view.

There’s nothing surprising about any of that.  Newfoundland and Labrador has enjoyed phenomenal economic growth for most of the last 15 years.  In 2002, for example, the provincial gross domestic product grew 8.2% and in 1998 and 1999, the province led the country in economic growth for two years in a row.

There’s also nothing about the current economic growth that has anything to do with the party currently in power either. Some people would like you to believe otherwise.  A great many people in the province believe otherwise.  But they are wrong.

What you really need to do when looking at these economic projections is go beyond the short-term and the superficial.

Like oil prices.  Current thinking is that oil should be $100 a barrel on average.  In 2011, oil prices operated within a pretty narrow band, so if things stay like that, the world should be fine.

But…

The biggest, and more bullish, tail risk is of heightened turmoil in the Middle East and north Africa and, increasingly, in Russia, the world’s second-largest oil producer. An attack by Israel on Iran, for example, could push oil prices briefly towards $250 a barrel, according to some estimates.

Now with production in this province forecast to drop by 20-odd% from 2011, that might get a few people really excited.  Russia could be Kathy Dunderdale’s best friend, someone quipped.  Oil at $250 a barrel for any length of time would deliver a pretty sweet financial reward into the provincial treasury.  Some people might even use it as an “I told ya” moment to justify Muskrat Falls.

Just consider the cost of living with oil at around $100 a barrel, as it is now.  Look at the cost of living in all sorts of places, including Labrador West where housing prices are already at crisis levels for a great many families.

Now think of what it would be like with prices driven up by the costs of shipping just about all major consumer goods into the province.

Not pretty, eh?

And for those people who imagine the Americans desperate for cheap hydroelectricity at that point, well, the picture is even less rosy for them.

ExxonMobil produced an interesting energy forecast recently that looks at what the energy world might look like out to about 2040. Electricity demand will grow globally.  But in the United States, expect to see more electricity produced by natural gas.  There’s plenty of it and new natural gas plants are much more efficient at producing electricity than existing methods.

As for price, well, take a gander at this forecast of the cost of producing electricity in 2030:

Electricity produced from natural gas will be less than half the cost of Muskrat Falls electricity.

Forget about those export sales, gang.

But just imagine carrying the huge debt from Muskrat Falls, paying the electricity prices in this province because the provincial government forced you to pay for it and trying to cope with all the other increased costs coming because oil is more than double what it is today.

You really need to take all this talk of wonder and glory with just a grain of salt.  Things are good these days, better than they have ever been.  But if we make mistakes today, if we don’t look at the big picture, we can be paying for them tomorrow.

Big time.

- srbp -

Danger: Lawyer at work #nlpoli

The public utilities board review of the Muskrat Falls project may be a set-up but the lawyer for the board is certainly making Nalcor pay for every single inch of ground.

Here’s one of her recent letters for the record straightening out Nalcor’s counsel.

Again.

This is the kind of lawyer you want to have on your side:  relentless and meticulous.

Imagine if the board had real teeth again to manage the province’s electrical system.

- srbp -

Rumour management and Twitter #nlpoli #cdnpoli

Via crisisblogger.com comes a link to a Guardian feature on the role Twitter played in rumours about riots in London.

The site gives seven specific rumours and tracks the life-cycle of the rumour from inception to death.

From the Guardian:

A period of unrest can provoke many untruths, an analysis of 2.6 million tweets suggests. But Twitter is adept at correcting misinformation - particularly if the claim is that a tiger is on the loose in Primrose Hill.

This is a fascinating study that uses technology to help tell the story in a compelling way.

- srbp -

Rendition flights and Gander #nlpoli #cdnpoli

A story moving on Tuesday about aircraft logs, Gander and rendition flights reminded your humble e-scribbler of a post around these parts from 2005 titled “Even spies contract out”:

A Canadian Press story in the Sunday Telegram reports that two aircraft with alleged links to the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) have passed through St. John's on their way to Iceland and points beyond.

The aircraft, registration numbers N-168D and N-196D, are owned by North Carolina-based Devon Holding and Leasing. The two CN-235, like the ones illustrated here are Spanish-built turboprop light transports. Devon's livery is illustrated here, in this photograph taken at Kabul, Afghanistan earlier this year of another Devon CN-235, registration number N-187D.

The story that’s currently on the wire doesn’t include references to specific aircraft. The 2005 story – based on Icelandic reports at the time - includes a string of registration numbers as well as links to pictures of the aircraft.

- srbp -

The Crowd in the Dark #nlpoli

Dwight Ball will become the new leader of the Liberal Party of Newfoundland and Labrador this week.  Expect an announcement on Thursday.

There’ll be no “interim” about it.

Ball is the leader until the party’s executive board decides on whether or not to find someone else to fill the job.  They won’t do that until some time early next year.

There’s no real news in any of that, by the way.  Variations on that theme have been in the news for a couple of weeks.  The only new information is when the announcement takes place.

What will be news on Thursday will be the announcement of a reform committee comprising Kevin Aylward, Siobhan Coady and Dean MacDonald.  They will do something  - it hasn’t been nailed down, apparently - at their own expense and bring back a report or recommendations or something – that too is apparently up in the air – on how to get the Liberal Party back in fighting trim.

Word of this committee sends a clear message. Party president Judy Morrow can talk all she wants on CBC’s On Point about how the Liberal Party just went through “a horrific time“ of an election campaign.  Such talk would suggest that people running the party know they can’t keep going on as they have been going. This committee is all about avoiding change.

The executive board picked Kevin Aylward to replace Yvonne Jones last August because he promised very little change. Kevin fit right in, touting an archaic fisheries policy as the centrepiece of the campaign. He started out wanting to endorse Muskrat Falls and only came around to opposing it once he realised that it might get some votes here or there. 

Some have tried to claim Kevin added two seats to the Liberal roster.  He didn’t.   What the party actually did was lose two seats it already held – not Kevin’s fault – and failed utterly to capitalise on possibilities in several others.

Kevin didn’t bring anyone along who might have changed the party’s direction. Nor was he, himself, inclined to do so.  And that is the bony nub of the problem with Kevin Aylward on a committee about renewal, reform or rebuilding. a fellow selected because he represented no threat of change cannot be an agent for change.

As for the other two members of the committee, their selection suggests the same thing. In her brief political career, Siobhan Coady has shown herself to be mind-numbingly conventional.  She seldom offers an observation on anything that has not already been offered in a thousand other places. Take her recent remarks on the provincial fisheries mess as a classic example of that.

Ditto Dean MacDonald.  A smart guy, without question.  Personable and enthusiastic for sure. A go-getter, definitely.  But Dean comes across as someone who is unfocused politically and generally unaware of the inner workings of the Liberal Party.  As such there’s no sign he has any inclination for substantive change.

If the committee travels around and meets with people, individually or in groups, odds are they will hear all sorts of things.

Lots of people will talk about district organizations, for example.  Former candidates will talk about the need to get nominations done earlier so they can organize themselves.  Others will talk about the need to have “grass roots”.

The problem with those ideas is that none of it means that people are actually attracted to the party and will do the ground-work any party needs to fight and win an election. The party can get names on paper,  just like it has been able to find token candidates for the past three elections.  Getting people to do anything is another matter.

The problem with those ideas is that the party runs itself as though every district belonged to every candidate.  There is no continuity.  There is no party organization.  There is – in truth – no party in the sense of people who all belong to a group built around a shared set of ideas or values.

The Liberals Party does not speak to anyone about anything any more. Until someone from the party can offer a compelling reason why someone should get involved with the Liberals, nothing else matters.

The problem with those ideas is that – ultimately - there isn’t much chance that three people not known for their interest in change are likely to find secrets no one else found.  And if, by some miracle, these people do trip over the odd good idea, odds are better the idea will get buried under a pile of other stuff that is all about staying the same, not change.

After all the same people responsible for deciding are themselves a committee.  Committees, you see, are what people set up when they want to make it look like something is happening when it really isn’t.  Or they set up a committee in order to delay making a decision because they don’t know what to do. 

While the committee is out looking, stuff happens that sets the course.  The stuff that happens could be accident or it could be a petty intrigue here or there.  But incrementally things happen while the committee is meeting such that whatever the committee decides, their work is irrelevant anyway.

If the Liberals knew what to do or had a general idea of where to go, they’d do it.  Instead, they have adopted – in essence -  the fisheries MOU process.  That was a committee by another name and look at how successfully that worked out. 

In the meantime, the Liberals are like a crowd in the dark.  No one can see beyond the end of his or her fingers.  They wander around groping for something. Some of them stumble off and run into other people and don’t come back.

None of the rest will stray too far from where he started or than he can see.  As a result, they all wind up no more than a few feet away from each other shuffling around the ground they all know intimately from having trod on it over and over again for years.

None of them know where they are going.  They all keep asking each other what to do next.  And around and around in circles they go. None of them really knows where the rest of the community is, either.  They  still cling to the memory of a time when they were part of a huge group.  In truth, everyone else in the community has gone off in other directions.  The Liberals just can’t see that.  The room is dark, after all. 

And while the Liberals can hear noises in the distance, the crowd of them won’t – not can’t, they will not  - move toward the noises.   Instead, they stagger around in the dark, their numbers dwindling, waiting for someone to show up with a flashlight.

They have formed a committee of three, we shall learn on Thursday,  to check to see if anyone among them found a flashlight or maybe a few old batteries with some juice left in them.

What are the odds that will work?

- srbp -