Paul Wells has pumped both the most recent Ekos and Strategic Counsel numbers through the Hill and Knowlton and come up with two results that show either a small Conservative majority or a chunkier one.
The most recent SES numbers produce a seat projection like this:
CPC 145
LPC 80
NDP 29
Bloc 53
Oth 1
Interestingly this set of numbers shows the central Newfoundland riding changing to the Conservatives.
One of the results Paul uses has a seat in the province going New Democrat. I don't think so.
All this goes to illustrate a few points:
1. The polls are shifting which means public opinion is shifting somewhat.
2. Variation you are seeing comes from differences in sampling and in sampling period.
3. In some areas, such as Atlantic Canada and parts of Ontario, the samples are too small to get an accurate reading. (margins of error are unacceptably high)
4. The seat projections depend heavily on the methodology. I suspect the Hill and Knowlton one is using the last election in which, locally, the Dippers had a stronger candidate in one riding than they do now. As a result, they'll shift the seat to the NDP when there isn't any sign this time of the NDP being in contention in that seat.
Ah well, we'll know in a week.
