11 October 2008

Dear Conrad...

Get a grip.

Obama was leading McCain before the meltdown.

McCain's miserable performance in the wake of the economic crisis has only worsened his position.

Some recent polls have Obama as much as 11 points in front of McCain nationally. Even Fox News analysts would have to reach to claim Obama is "fighting" to hold on to a "slim" lead.

That's nothing to shake a stick at.

It starts to get worse for McCain when one notices the shifts occurring in key demographic segments to Obama and away from McCain/Palin.

As for the Bill Ayers thing, the most spectacular point is that the McCain/Palin attack on that point has had almost no discernable impact on the latest Obama surge.

Perhaps your analysis is -  in a word -  simplistic.

Ditto the Canadian stuff.

In the past week or so we have seen the Conservative support in Quebec tumble as a direct response to Conservative messaging gaffes. No minor issues;  major gaffes.  The Conservatives who were poised to increase the Quebec riding count will now struggle to hold on to what they have.  Some numbers suggest their riding count will be halved.

Numbers have shifted dramatically in key Ontario ridings and even in British Columbia there has been a noticeable shift in voter intentions.

This hardly favours the Conservatives "one way or the other".

Far from being a case where voter intentions were solidly formed long ago in an election that may see "a "watershed" that changes fundamental voting patterns and party dominance for years to come", the current Canadian federal election is an example of how even front-runners can prove unpalatable to the majority of electors based on elector experienced with them.

Evidently there's something sitting close to Conrad's compass that is skewing his perspective.