Doyle and Hearn to vote down oil money

The National Lampoon, unofficial propaganda organ of the CPC, is reporting that Reform-aTory members of parliament voted unanimously last night to bring down the government at the earliest opportunity and force an election on an unwilling Canadian public.

"Harper said he doesn't care what public opinion polls are saying, now is the time to act." Feed me, Seymour, indeed!

Well ladies and gentleman, that means that the Reform-a-Tories have unanimously agreed to defeat the government before the offshore accord money can be voted through the House.

Before they start sputing the "separate bill" bull, read the prime minister's letter. I have been saying for weeks that the government had tried to accommodate Reform-a-Tory objections on Kyoto to speed passage of Danny's Billions.

The money is being held up by Stephen Harper and now we learn that both Norm Doyle And Loyola Hearn have decided to join him in defeating the government.

When it came down to the wire, Norm and Loyola voted with their party.

Party before province.

What a concept.

Remember that at the end of June.

Doyle deked?

Connie caucus chair Norm Doyle appears to have been deked by his Leader or maybe Norm was trying to deke us. I doubt that second one Norm is a stand-up guy. Any erroneous comments he made last week must have been based on sincere - but badly misinformed - beliefs.

Actually, from watching CBC news last night, I think the Connies were split between the Reformers who desperately want to flay alive any Liberal in sight and the Progressive Conservatives who are worried about going to the polls when people don't want it.

The Reformers won and so they are gling to try and force an election against their own commitment to heed the wishes of Canadians. (Pssst. Stevie, Canadians don't want an election.).

So in the matter of a few short days I have to drop the Connie label and go back to one I picked up last year from a buddy of mine. Reflecting the deep divisions in the Official Opposition, we must reflect both the Reform and the Progressive Conservative factions.

Hence: Reform-a-Tory.

Meanwhile, VOCM is quoting Norm Doyle about a letter he wrote to the prime minister seeking to split the offshore accord money out of the budget bill. Well, in the interests of a whole bunch of thing, here's the PM's reply to the gang of Reform-a-Tories from Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador who wrote him on the matter.

Note that deputy Reform-a-Tory leader Peter MacKay, DDS is on the list.

Peter MacKay, M.P.
Central Nova

Gerald Keddy, M.P.
South Shore-St. Margaret’s

Norman Doyle, M.P.
St. John’s East

Loyola Hearn, M.P.
St. John’s South-Mount Pearl

Bill Casey, M.P.
Cumberland Colchester Musquodoboit Valley


I received your letter of April 25, 2005 concerning the implementation of the offshore arrangements reached with Newfoundland and Labrador and Nova Scotia on February 14, 2005.

These agreements were made as a result of the commitment that I made to the people of those two provinces, in acknowledgement of the importance of these resources for their future and in recognition of the unique fiscal and economic circumstances faced by these two provinces. The Government of Canada fully recognizes the importance of these agreements for Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador. In fact, after 20 years of discussions on this matter, it was this government that committed, delivered and finalized these complicated arrangements in under 1 year. This government's commitment and follow-through sits in stark contrast to Mr. Harper's proposal of a year ago which would have resulted in no increased benefits to equalization entitlements to 3 of the 4 Atlantic provinces. [Emphasis added]

Stephen Harper's election commitment would have provided nothing new to Nova Scotia. This government's arrangement with Nova Scotia has an estimated worth of $1.1 Billion over 8 years. Stephen Harper's election commitment would have provided Newfoundland and Labrador with an extra $185 million in 2003/04 terms. This government's arrangement with Newfoundland and Labrador equates to $2.6 Billion over the next 8 years. The government has worked out a fair and generous agreement with Newfoundland and Labrador and Nova Scotia.

We are willing to work with opposition parties to make Parliament function and to facilitate the expeditious consideration and passage of the Budget Bill that is currently before Parliament. However, the proposal to separate the Accord deals from Bill C-43 is misleading to the people of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador and excludes the reality of parliamentary procedure and the Bloc Quebecois' position on this matter. Coupling the Accord deals with the budget actually speeds the progress of the Accords through legislative procedures. The Budget Bill is given priority time in the House and Senate to ensure its expeditious passage, given its importance to the government's functions. Thus, this government has given the Atlantic Accords the same priority as our own budget.

You further choose to ignore the fact that removal of the Accords from the Budget Bill for immediate passage as a stand-alone bill would require unanimous consent from all parties in the House - all members of the House of Commons would have to agree. While there is no doubt that the Liberals, NDP and Conservatives would vote for the speedy passage of a stand alone Atlantic Accord bill, Mr. Duceppe has made no indication he would support it. In fact, the Bloc Quebecois have never voted in favour of a budget and have a long stated opposition to the deal we have made with these two provinces. [Emphasis added]

So then, with only a simple majority approving the bill, the Accords would be set to proceed as would any other piece of legislation and would be subject to the numerous readings and committees that could take another year. This government wants the people of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador to immediately receive their benefits.

Mr. Harper is on the record as saying that he supports the Accords when he is in Atlantic Canada. However, as recently as last weekend, he expressed his opposition to such "one-off deals." This therefore raises questions about the sincerity of your offer. Your leader is now allied with the separatist Bloc party and committed to bring down the government at the earliest opportunity and further jeopardizing the Accords.

Gentlemen, your colleagues and your leader Mr. Harper should state your unqualified support for the Accords, vote for the budget and see it passed.

The people of Newfoundland and Labrador, of Nova Scotia, and indeed the people of Canada expect and deserve that this legislation be passed as expeditiously as possible. Members of Parliament from all parties must step forward and assume the responsibility that Canadians have entrusted in us to ensure this outcome.

Sincerely,

//original signed by Paul Martin//

Hey IFAW! Over here!

International Fund for Animal Welfare.

Seal Hunt.

Rob Antle.

Great words for google, especially that last one today in which The Robert Bond Papers was the first hit on some people's google searches.

But guys, rather than waste time hunting for stuff on Rob Antle via google, try reading this post from several weeks ago.

It speaks to the abject hypocrisy of the anti-sealing movement. Yes, I know it's about Paul Watson, but is there any substantive difference between Paul and his personal showboat and a group that uses whitecoat pictures because baby seals are "icons"?

Reading the Riot Act

Let's make it clear up front: I am not a lawyer nor do I play one on TV.

That said, it seems to me to be a waste of the court's time for government to go seek an injuction to order people to stop breaching the Criminal Code of Canada, when by definition, they are not supposed to be breaking the criminal law in the first place.

After a day in which a mob closed government buildings, forcibly entered one of them and then proceeded to occupy the offices and trash files, former premier and current public works minister Tom Rideout held a news conference to announce that the provincial government is seeking a court order to stop people from behaving badly.

Actually, it isn't just bad behaviour. It is criminal behaviour.

In the past four weeks, the mob, organized by the Fish, Food and Allied Works have:

1. Caused repeated disturbances in a public place. This is most likely a breach of section 175 (1) (a) and (c) of the Criminal Code.

2. Participated in a riot, under sections 64 and 65 and 68 of the Criminal Code, provided that an appropriate authority follows the provisions of section 67. This is the section I would have suggsted using in relations to events at the Petten Building today.

3. That doesn't include breaches of other statues, the sections about forcible entry, trespass, and maybe even conspiracy.

4. That doesn't include the breaches under provisions of the House of Assembly standing orders.

There is simply no circumstance that justifies the commission of criminal acts by the union and/or its supporters.

Period.

Make no mistake, this is not a matter of free speech and human rights. The perpetrators of these acts have deliberately and maliciously set about to undermine democracy. They have rejected legitimate means of being heard in favour of what is nothing short of thuggery.

There is no place in a free society for people who would deny rights and freedoms to further their cause. The union president and his followers have infringed on my rights and those of others for far too long.

It must be stopped immediately either voluntarily by the fish union and its supporters or by government using the legal and appropriate means at its disposal.

Tom Rideout's actions today are as weak and vacillating as those of the inept Speaker of the legislature. Their tepid responses to acts of intimidation have actually emboldened the mob who know that they can do just about anything they wish with impunity.

It is time for law and order to be restored.

Peter MacKay: Dental as anything

Last week Conservative national caucus chairman Norm Doyle told CBC Radio that his party would be meeting today to decide whether or not they would force an election on the Canadian public

Doyle was trying desperately to make it sound like the Connies hadn't already decided to bring down the government. In fact that was something Norm said as plain as day - No decision has been made.

Well, the National Lampoon, unofficial propaganda organ of the CPC is saying something very different yet again this morning, as they did the same day Doyle was talking nonsense.

In the realm of bizarre metaphors, Peter MacKay is actually suggesting we should think dentistry when thinking election.

"Think of it as kind of root canal for the body politic, suggested Deputy Conservative Leader Peter MacKay.

"An election may be something like a visit to the dentist: it may not be something you want to do, but something you have to do," MacKay said in an interview broadcast Sunday on CBC Newsworld.

Thanks Peter.

Now it is all making sense to me.

The House of Commons has become the Little House of Horrors. The giant plant intent on eating anything in sight is, of course, the Conservative Party. Seymour Krelborne, the nebbishy guy who must feed the plant from outer space on human flesh is none other than CPC Leader Stephen Harper.

The deputy Conservative leader is actually one Orin Scrivello, DDS, not Peter MacKay as it has seemed all along.

That would make Norm Doyle perhaps Mr. Mushnik, the lovable plant shop owner.

Sadly, Mr. Mushnik gets eaten.

But the plant had an insatiable appetite for blood, as I recall, and Seymour was prepared to feed anyone to it because the plant brought him power.

Ok.

So much for fun.

The real point here is simple: someone within the CPC needs to get a grip on some of their wingnuts, like MacKay.

Who in their right freakin' mind would tell a Canadian public that already doesn't want an election, that having an election is just really like a root canal?

I can only wait for the TV spots: Steve slapping on latex and telling us all to turn our heads to the right and cough.

When insight is gossip

This past week, John Efford was more like the John Efford we have seen over the past 20 years of his political career. He was focused, handled media questions with clarity and participated in strong, positive announcements on everything from economic development in his riding to support - albeit indirect - for the Lower Churchill.

Truthfully, that's what political commentary should be focused on - actual performance. For someone who has taken to commenting on politics and public life, it is refreshing to have something positive to say.

Personal digs, especially ones divorced from substantive issues, are corrosive and can only be looked upon with scorn by anyone interested in contributing positively to our province and its political life.

The reason Norm Doyle got a bit of a roasting here lately has been the fact his comments are so far out of character for him that it had to be noted forcefully. I'd expect Norm to continue giving us all some solid performance again soon. That's why he has been a successful and well-regarded politician over the past two decades or so. Norm's inherently strong qualities are why, in the last federal election, my Conservative neighbours volunteered to work on Norm's campaign rather than help in their own riding. They voted with their feet and people should notice that.

In the comments, I did not attack Norm personally or lampoon either his intelligence or integrity. I poked some fun, hopefully taken in the good-natured spirit with which it was intended, in order to get at the larger point, namely the political bind in which Doyle finds himself.

In dealing with recent events in the House of Assembly, I have argued that Harvey Hodder should resign because his performance is lacking. I do not doubt that Hodder is a man of good intention and integrity. I simply find that his performance as Speaker of the House of Assembly is actually such that he is calling the House itself into disrepute.

Where I have taken to speaking on integrity or ability I have endeavoured to base it on something substantial like the gap between claim and fact. Norm Doyle's colleague from Renews, I mean St. John's South-Mount Pearl, falls into this category.

In Loyola Hearn's case, the contrast between his claims and his behaviour lends itself easily to pointing out that the erstwhile minister in a Conservative government has scarcely a credible tad to clothe his form. His efforts on tackling the non-existent problem of post office closures are just a case in point. His fisheries comments ignore completely the depth of the challenges involved and on more than one occasion Hearn appears to be acting less in the best interests of the public than in his own.

Hearn is also deserving of special attention since he has never failed to launch into vicious, personal attacks on John Efford at every turn. In that context, Hearn cannot expect to receive different treatment himself. Brian Tobin was the last politician I recall who engage in political tactics that, when turned on him, made him cry foul with just a hint of hypocrisy. Let's at least be thankful Hearn has had the strength to take it as well as he has dished it out, his miserable behaviour on the most recent federal election night notwithstanding.

As much as possible, the commentaries posted here have strived to work with information, some insight derived from experience and less of the gossipy or catty stuff one usually finds in coffee shops or at local bars. Others can judge the success or failure rate. Sure there has been some strong opinion and no one is expected to agree with any of the opinion or the conclusions reached. Make up your own mind on the arguments advanced here.

All that leads to a comment on Bill Rowe's column in The Telegram on Saturday.

The radio spots flooding over VOCM speak of "staggering insights" from this column, a phrase I have heard people around town tear to shreds for its pomposity and fatuousness. The eating of the Rowe pudding, though, seems to leave one consistently without any proof that there are insights at all, let alone ones that would leave a reader staggered by their profundity.

On Saturday, his comments on John Efford were based entirely on gossip. There is an extensive list of the catty, biting, condescending remarks of mainlanders and others about John Efford's performance as a federal cabinet minister over the past year. Since we are not given the context in which some were offered, we only have Rowe's interpretation that allows him to fit them into the negative cast of the column.

Despite his protests to the contrary, Rowe is merely letting others tear down John without having to sully his hands with doing the job himself. Others are his mouthpiece.

One would reasonably expect some perspective from Rowe, some balance based on Rowe's knowledge of Efford's career. One would expect something a little better than jokes made by unnamed small minds about Mr. Efford's speech patterns. After all, that is the sum total of Rowe's column arguing that Efford should stand again for election so that Efford's constituents may vote on his performance. Mr. Rowe should wish for such a personal record of electoral success either for the party he led or the one he aspired to represent and which latterly has paid his salary.

The superficial nature of Rowe's column tell us little of Efford and more of the columnist and those he quotes. Rowe neglects to offer any balance in his piece. He endorses the snotty remarks as his own even when he may protest mildly one or two aspects. If Bill didn't think accents were important, as he claims, he wouldn't then repeat a litany of jokes about Efford's speech made by people who, one supposes, were like Bill himself in Ottawa - lacking influence.

What makes this column all the more distasteful is that Rowe knows full-well, both from his time as open line host and in his time as employee of the provincial government, that the offshore revenue debate was deliberately directed by some away from matters of substance and fact and toward petty, personal issues. While Rowe obviously lacked the ability or willingness to challenge knowledgeable callers, he frequently allowed superficial nonsense to dominate thereby abetting some of the attacks on Efford.

By continuing those attacks, Rowe can never again be viewed as a credible analyst or commentator. He is an active propagandist and should be treated accordingly.

Even worse, though, Rowe has treated his audience with contempt.

That is an unforgivable sin for a talk-show host or political commentator.

Perhaps Bill would have the courage to once again stand for election and let his audience vote on his merits or demerits before presuming to suggest the same approach for someone else.

Is this why the Sage was in the Atlantic?

Look around long enough and you sometimes see things that might be connected.

The range instrumentation ships used by the US Air Force to monitor missile launches can be used to monitor anyone's launches, not just their own.

Is it possible that the Observation Island or Invincible were somewhere off Japan to watch this launch?

Then again, the Sage might just have been an extra ship needed for a completely obvious need, like a repair and refit for one of the usual T-AGM vessels. Either way, the Sage wasn't responding to Canadian concerns.

The Winnipeg Offer

The federal government has made two offers which were made public subsequent to their being presented. Following is the offer made in Winnipeg in late December 2004; as I understand it, there were some discussions that are not reflected in this proposal.

What follows is a straightforward presentation of the offer, with some commentary on its contents, particularly as it relates to the provincial government position. Undoubtedly more of the province's reaction will be released later today and I will update my comments accordingly.

Draft Agreement in Principle Between the Government of Canada and the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador and the Government of Nova Scotia

1. This agreement reflects an understanding between the Government of Canada and the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador and the Government of Nova Scotia that:

• both provinces already are collecting and will continue to collect 100 per cent of offshore resource revenues as if these resources were on land;

• the Government of Canada has agreed to provide additional offset payments to these provinces in respect of offshore-related Equalization reductions.

Comment: This clause is a simple statement that reflects the current situations with respect to Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador offshore revenues. The second bullet point describes the current agreement.

Based on Premier Williams post-June 10 position he could not accept either of these points. First, he has argued that the province currently does not receive 100% of revenues and therefore he could not endorse a comment that states otherwise. Second, the Premier has also claimed that the additional federal transfer is not an offset payment related to Equalization.

2. The Government of Canada intends to execute its commitments under this agreement through legislation that will authorize additional payments to provide 100 per cent offset against reductions in Equalization payments resulting from offshore revenues.

Comment: This is a further statement of the federal government's intent and the general nature of the agreement.

3. For the fiscal year 2004-05, the value of the additional offset payments will be:

a. For Newfoundland and Labrador: $133.6 million;

b. For Nova Scotia: $30.5 million.

4.   For the fiscal year 2005-06, the value of the additional offset payments will be:

a. For Newfoundland and Labrador: $188.7 million;

b. For Nova Scotia: $26.6 million.

Comment: No explanation has been offered as to why the federal government proposed specific amounts for payments in the first two fiscal years of the agreement that differ from the rest of the agreement. In FY 2004, for example, the amount of $133.6 is approximately equal to projected offshore royalties used to prepare the FY 2004 budget. However, actual revenues as defined even by the pre-June 05 provincial position would be closer to $300 million based on current projections. Even allowing that this figure is intended to represent the 70% of revenues used to calculate Equalization, the figure is still slightly off.

Nonetheless, there is nothing to suggest these figures could not have been revised upward to reflect actual performance or that the two fiscal years could not be brought under Clause 5.

5. Commencing in 2006-07, the annual offset payment for each province shall be equal to 100 per cent of any reductions in Equalization payments resulting from offshore revenues. The amount of additional offset payment shall be calculated as the difference between the Equalization payment to be received by the province under the Equalization formula as it exists at that time if the province received no offshore petroleum resource revenues in that year, and the Equalization payment for that province in that year under the Equalization formula as it exists at the time, net of any payments made with respect to existing accords or Equalization offset provisions.

Comment: This clause describes the formula for determining the amount of the additional transfer to be made by the Government of Canada. It is a robust description of the offset as being the difference between Equalization with oil revenues included and Equalization without oil revenues.

6. For 2006-07 to 2011-12, in any fiscal year, if either province no longer qualifies for receipt of an Equalization payment, no additional offset payments will be made to that province, beyond payments specified in existing accords.

Comment: This is the clause that would cause the provincial government the most concern. Under this clause, additional payments to the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador would cease in three to five years when the provincial government own source revenues exceed the national per capita average fiscal capacity to qualify for Equalization transfers. in other words, since the province has only three years to go before it achieves "have" status, the duration of the agreement is functionally limited. We are making too much money.

This clause would ensure Newfoundland and Labrador is treated consistently with other provinces across the country. It is also consistent with the principles established in the Atlantic Accord on revenue sharing and on Equalization. The clause also conforms to Premier Williams desire that offshore resources "from a revenue perspective be treated as if they were on land within this province". [Williams to Martin, May 21, 2004.]

7. This arrangement will be in effect until March 31, 2012. No later than March 31, 2011, Canada and each province will, on a bilateral basis, begin discussions to determine whether a successor arrangement with each province should be put into place for an additional 8-year period beyond 2012. There will be no further arrangements for a province beyond March 31, 2012, if that province has not attained budget balance in 2011-12 or has not qualified for Equalization payments in 2010-11 and 2011-12.

Comment: This clause provides conditions for triggering the second eight years of additional federal transfers. It requires that a province must either have balanced its budget on an accrual basis or be receiving Equalization in 2011-2012.

There are two obvious points for comment. First, Newfoundland and Labrador would not qualify for a second period of eight years if current projections hold and it becomes a "have" province within three to five years (2007 to 2009). Second, the Williams administration has already committed to balancing the province's budget on a cash basis by 2008 and on an accrual basis by 2011/2012. This stipulation should not cause significant concern for the provincial government since it conforms to their established policy commitment.

8. Any successor arrangement with a province would be in effect for the period 2012-13 to 2019-20. In any year in that period, offset payments would be subject to the following conditions: the province would have to maintain budget balance in that year, the province would need to have qualified for Equalization payments in that year or the preceding year, and the province's debt-to-GDP ratio (using a fully consolidated accrual basis of accounting) has not become lower than that of one of the provinces that is not a party to this agreement. The arrangement would expire once payments are terminated for any year.

Comment: This section establishes certain conditions for the second eight-year transfer period. It essentially reinforces the goal of having the additional federal transfer being applied to reduce provincial debt and deficit. As such, it conforms to the Williams administrations' election commitment.

9. The Government of Canada commits to providing new offset payments for an additional 8-year period, starting with the first fiscal year of offshore commercial production, if any, from the Deep Panuke project in Nova Scotia or the Hebron project in Newfoundland and Labrador. Any such additional offset payments shall be limited to the revenues from these projects.

Comment: This clause introduces a new concept, namely separate offset mechanisms for specific projects. It overcomes one of the flaws in the original Accord which was not sensitive to protracted development phases. Essentially, Newfoundland and Labrador's offset was triggered by Hibernia production alone. Had the other fields remained undeveloped for an extended period, the offsets would have applied solely to that field; once developed the provincial government would have only received 100% of revenues from the fields with no additional federal transfers.

Rather than causing concern, this clause should be viewed as a positive step forward in the development of talks between the provinces and the federal government. A relatively straightforward amendment could bring any future, and currently unforeseen, projects under a similar special offset provision.

10. The Government of Canada agrees that if, in the future, it enters into an arrangement with another province or territory concerning offshore petroleum resource revenues, then either province may elect to enter into discussions with the Government of Canada to amend this agreement.

Comment: This clause extends to Newfoundland and Labrador a protection already available to Nova Scotia through its offshore oil agreement with the federal government.

-srbp-

NROL-16/Mission B-30: How far is far?

There's an interesting story on the front page of the Telly today recounting the Titan debris impact from Friday night. Don waste time looking, it isn't online. *sigh*

Seems the fisheries patrol vessel Leonard J Cowley was approximately 100 nautical miles northeast of the Hibernia rig.

Thus, as I already suggested several days ago, the debris never came within 100 nautical miles of the platforms. That is exactly as the US Air Force predicted in their original impact map and estimates.

When you have as much experience as the Americans do in launching rockets and when there is a s much sensitivity to third party liability, it is pretty easy to why the fears expressed by some about debris impacts was unwarranted from the outset.

Maybe next time, someone will sell tickets to see the lightshow.

Two observations:

1. The Cowley was not underway at the time of the sighting, suggesting to me that she had been sent out specifically to monitor the launch. If not, then the skipper decided to take advantage of his location to watch the light show.

2. The debris impact is reported by this source to have been over 100 nautical miles away from the offshore production platforms. While I have heard one account that claimed the debris was only a handful of miles away, this is obviously a faulty report.

Sound travels really well on the ocean and at night. Therefore, it is easy for an inexperienced observer to make some bad guesses as to distances.

Independent preview

The Independent officially hits the streets on Sundays but it seems that some outlets get their copies on Saturday evening. I found mine at a drug store in Mount Pearl so I picked it up to see what's in the paper people are talking about.

A few weeks ago, I took a harsh line (and promptly got a lengthy visit to the blog site from an unidentified Indy staffer) on its content. Last week, the paper appeared to have gotten its chops back as a place to find interesting and new stories. Hunt around and you'll find a different perspective from Express columnist Geoff Meeker; Meeker is a former journalist and now a public relations consultant.

Overall, the Indy is worth reading again if only because throughout the whole thing you can find some decently written and interesting features on the arts community.

It's biggest plus remains the photography by Paul Daly and Rhonda Hayward. I swear there may be better shooters out there somewhere, but they aren't working at newspapers. If the Indy had copy that rivaled the technical and artistic merits of their photographers, the paper would be a must-read for anyone in North America.

I am going to buy the Indy each week just to have something to ponder in Paul and Rhonda's captivating images. As for the rest of it, well, make up your own mind.

So what's in the Indy this week?

There's a page one story by Jeff Ducharme called "Paid 'allies'" noting that Fisheries and Oceans is paying the tab for the 11 national delegations to the conference starting in St. John's next week on Grand Banks fishing. The point seems to be that this is all a big con job. Ducharme has a sentence on the first page: "[c]ritics say the conference is a farce, meant to pacify detractors."

So I read on to find more on this point.

Flip to the second page and you'll find not critics plural but critic singular. The sole critic Jeff quotes is none other than Gus "Highgrade" Etchegary. As noted here several weeks ago, at least one former fisheries inspector has pointed to the standard policy of the company Etchegary worked for that instructed skippers to highgrade; that means they could only bring back the biggest and best fish, dumping thousands of tons of cod annually back into the sea - dead. Etchegary's company contributed as much to the decimation of cod stocks as any foreigner, apparently. But that's a story the Indy won't touch either to confirm it or dispel it.

Even if that highgrading story turned out to be completely untrue, Etchegary alone doesn't constitute anything more than the voice of one guy. So much for a new approach on the fisheries stories the Indy likes to run. Oh yeah, Gus has a letter to the editor in this issue too.

Let's look at the other stories.

There's a follow-on by Alisha Morrissey on her story last week that alleged an investigation by the Ontario Provincial Police requested by Royal Newfoundland Constabulary Chief Richard Deering included looking at a three year old probe into prostitution in the capital city.

Morrissey's story this week is based on her interview with Chief Deering in which he denied the contention in Morrissey's original story, supposedly based on information supplied by unidentified "sources".

Well, here's the upshot: seems that Morrissey's original story was, in a word, wrong. Her sources were wrong and her story was wrong.

Morrissey gives a partial transcript of the Deering interview, focusing on the sections where he took her to task for what he considered to be encouraging corruption by police officers or other police officials who breach their oaths of confidentiality. In a CBC Radio interview, Morrissey's boss, Ryan Cleary called Deering's approach "bullying".

It isn't bullying, Ryan. Deering took strong exception to the initial story and the approach your paper took. That's fair enough. He is entitled to his view and to express it strongly and civilly as he did. CBC Radio reporter Ronalda Nakonechny (apologies if I spelled her name incorrectly) noted that the RNC taped the interview. Under the circumstances that's an acceptable practice too since it allows for corrections to any misinterpretations that can arise in a controversial situation.

But again, the upshot of the whole thing is that the Indy got the story wrong. Their sources weren't that good apparently. This story is different from the fish one, however, because there isn't a pattern of behaviour. The Indy had information they thought was solid and went with it. Provided they had more than one source, their approach was legitimate. On the other hand if it turns out the RNC employee charged this week was the source of the leak and was the only source, we would all need to question Morrissey's contention in the transcript that "we follow a standard set of guidelines and ethics...".

On page three there's a half page on speculation about Danny Williams as a possible prime minister. We already dissected Bill Rowe's column on that bit of fluff last week. Most quotes in this piece, by Jamie Baker, go to a single source - Steven Frank, Canadian bureau chief for Time magazine. Aside from that, we have no idea who Frank is and why we should pay attention to his gushing opinion. There certainly isn't any detailed analysis of the premier's political credibility, contacts or ability to speak French. Nope. All we have is Frank's view that Danny Williams as prime minister "would be great". The second most quoted source in the column is Kevin O'Brien, recently appointed as parliamentary assistant to the Premier. I am not sure that counts as an independent source.

Oddly, from a news standpoint, you have to get past that half-page of bumpf to get to a more interesting story from this week, namely Fabian Manning's untimely firing as parliamentary assistant to the education minister. Curious too that the Indy reporter on the story picked up a suggestion tossed only by the Premier - maybe to discredit Manning - that the strong-willed and competent Tory member of the House of Assembly might be considering using his stand on the crab dispute as a springboard to federal politics. Manning flatly rejects that idea or the equally absurd notion he might bolt from the Tory caucus. Nice spec, Indy guys, but it is a good way to avoid writing a piece that has more weight than the one-note samba on page three.

There's another story on page four about the loss of federal jobs in the province. The story quotes a number of sources - all critical, except for John Efford. One of them is Loyola Hearn, reportedly the member of parliament for St. John's South Mount Pearl. Odd that the Indy mentions Hearn's crusade against the non-existent plan to close 86 post offices in the country - not 82 as the Indy reports but omits the completely bogus nature of Hearn's claims.

Would that fact - there was no plan - detract from Hearn's cred if the Indy actually reported the fact Hearn was...what is that word again...wrong?

There's also a nice little page filler - full page literally - on who might run in the next election. The Indy must be reading my blog - they actually raised the idea that Hearn is planning to stand for election in a seat other than the one he currently represents on paper. Unnamed "sources" are said to dismiss the idea. Let's wait and see what happens.

If I skim back over all that, I can see a pattern on sourcing that would be most unsettling if it turned out to be true.

Slide way over to page 25 and there is an interview with Dean MacDonald, re-appointed chair of Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro and good friend of both the current and at least one former premier. MacDonald notes the cost of developing the Lower Churchill will be around $5.0 billion; this ties nicely with a story last week that the premier seems to be considering using the offshore bonus money - currently threatened by Stephen Harper with being defeated in the Commons - to build the energy megaproject.

In this piece, I like MacDonald's mention of the Upper Churchill power recall which he says has been resold once recalled from Quebec. What he doesn't tell you is that the power is resold to Quebec as part of an arrangement to keep solvent the Churchill Falls Labrador Corporation. MacDonald also makes an interesting observation on power consumption by oil refineries - a big part of the government's policy book on energy and economic development. MacDonald notes there hasn't been a new refinery built in North America in 25 years. Guess what? There isn't likely to be one built in the near future and likely not here without massive tax concessions.

Aside from a piece of amateurish poetry from John Crosbie, my favourite piece this week is a column by Indy owner Brian Dobbin. Seems Mr. Dobbin feels the need to warn us about those dastardly mainland Chinese and their business investments. Dobbin claims to have spent a lot of time in China, "including having operational offices in Hong Kong and Taiwan". He also mentions yet again - albeit cryptically - his experience in presenting a Taiwanese development proposal to the provincial government some years ago only to have it rejected by the government.

Ok. Dobbin would have a point if he was raising a strategic concern about the extent to which Chinese state-owned enterprises are investing heavily in foreign energy projects like the offshore.

But that isn't his point at all. Dobbin is apparently an environmentalist with concerns about Kyoto and the damage to the global environment being done by Chinese manufacturing industries. We'll take it under advisement, Brian.

But here's my closing suggestion for Brian and Ryan.

In the interests of complete disclosure, let's see a couple of things really soon in the front section of the Indy:

1. A complete review of the Taiwanese proposal Dobbin keeps mentioning using more than one source.

2. A complete disclosure of Dobbin's Taiwanese business connections. If this guy is going to be making public comment then we need to know how he is tied to the island and its ongoing dispute with the Chinese mainland. Taiwan is only China in the minds of the Taiwanese and Hong Kong is still a separate enclave.

Until Dobbin can show us his wider experience in dealing with the People's Republic, there is good reason to believe Dobbin might be a bit less than objective in his opinions on things Chinese.

Speaking of the shuttle Danny...

Since the Premier got so agitated about nothing with the last Titan mission, I wonder if anyone has briefed him on the shuttle.

1. The last five shuttle missions have used the high inclination launch angle. The next five plan for the same thing.

2. The last mission had some impacts on the underside of the orbiter on the way to orbit. That's what led to the disintegration of the orbiter on re-entry.

3. Therefore, it is highly likely that any launch problems will trigger a mission abort.

4. Pop quiz: what happens next?

5. Pop answer: the large, liquid fuel tank is jettisoned, the orbiter is brought around and the pilot heads for the nearest runway.

6. And where might those runways be, you ask?

7. They are located at Goose Bay, Gander and St. John's. The latter one is only used in a pinch since the runways are so frickin short compared to Goose and Gander.

8. The tank falls somewhere in the ocean with much less precision than the Titan launch vehicle did.

Oh well. I guess we'll hear more of that as we get closer to launch day.

And then nothing happened

Reports from Florida are that the last Titan launch went flawlessly, with the Hibernia and Terra Nova platforms never saw a thing except a couple of amorous seagulls.

Here's a summary from SpaceFlightnow.com.

Let me remind everyone that this is exactly what i predicted from the beginning based on solid evidence.

For your amusement, here's the CP story on the launch focusing on some comments from defence minister Bill Graham.

Notice that Graham was in New Brunswick announcing yet more money for infrastructure at Camp Gagetown.

Meanwhile over here, no one seems to be noticing a $68 million defence construction job that needs some massaging and pushing to happen.

Guess they are waiting for the shuttle.

PolFlash - Update - 2 polls show Liberals on top

Two new national polls show the federal Liberal has regained its lead over the federal Conservatives.

Canadian Press is reporting a poll by GPC Research showing the Liberals slightly ahead of the Conservatives in voter preference. Even the National Lampoon picked this one up and could not escape the lede:

"A Conservative lead in popular support seems to have evaporated this week, suggests a poll conducted after Paul Martin's national TV address and while the Liberal-NDP budget pact was being worked out."

GPC Research is a division of GPC International. GPC counts former federal Conservative cabinet minister Don Mazankowski, former federal Liberal cabinet minister Otto Lang and former Ontario liberal Premier David Peterson among their consultants. Wags will recall that during Lang's time in Ottawa, the government's twin engine prop aircraft became known as the Twin Otto in honour of the minister's penchant for flying around in it. This was before the arrival of Challengers.

Another poll conducted for the Globe and Mail and CTV by The Strategic Counsel shows that the Liberal Party enjoys the support of 30 percent of decided voters in Canada, followed by 28% for the Conservatives. The Strategic Counsel's researcher is Allan Gregg, once the leading researcher for the Progressive Conservative Party.

"And Mr. Harper's own standing with Canadians has not improved; 22 per cent said their view of the Conservative Leader has improved in the past year, while 21 per cent said it worsened. "He's stuck in the mud," Mr. Gregg said.

In Ontario, which has 106 of the 308 seats in the House of Commons, the Liberals have regained a substantial lead, with 38-per-cent support, compared with 30 per cent for the Conservatives. That is a dramatic reversal from 10 days ago, when the Conservatives led the Liberals 39 per cent to 33 per cent."

Wow! You really have to look at the dramatic turn around in opinion once people got past the initial shock from the Gomery testimony core dump and the subsequent media frenzy.

As a number of cooler heads noted, the Connies and Stephen Harper just couldn't make their vicious rhetoric take hold with the Canadian public focusing solely on Gomery. The Connie message track was just out of touch with a majority of Canadians. The dogs responded to the vicious sounding whistle. Most Canadians never heard it.

This points to the chronic Connie problem inherited from the righteous wonders of the Reform Party and Leader Stephen Harper - they are ideologues not pragmatists. They are elitists who want to tell us what to think, not democrats who believe in political dialogue.

And that's why they keep failing.

Look particularly at Ontario in the Gregg poll where the federal Liberals earned a massive turn-around in voter preference.

So much for the "media consultants" who thought the Prime Minister's communications strategy was all wrong. Quick, everyone call Allan Bonner and see what he says now.

So much for the media pile-on, talking about a government tottering on the verge of collapse. [Or my favourite, the poll showing the PM's speech was working but where the reporter said the Liberal Party had stalled. Talk about spin!]

So much for Stephen Harper.

and if Steve puts the whip out for Connies to vote against the budget, so much for Loyola and Norm. I'd like to see them wriggle out of the jam they are in.

Harvey Hodder - Quit already

CBC news reports today that Harvey Hodder has decided to reopen the public galleries based on advice from the police.

He gives no idea of what has changed to give him comfort he can open the galleries without disruption.

It was long ago obvious that Hodder is the most inept Speaker to occupy the chair in decades.

His flip-flops over the past couple of weeks and his complete failure to control the legislature or the galleries is further proof of his incompetence.

The government won't toss him out because they like to have a puppet in the chair.

The opposition lacks the power to push him out.

If Hodder had half an ounce of anything, he'd quietly pack it in at the first chance and let someone take over the Speaker's job who has a clue.

As it stands now, the House is reduced to a joke.

Maybe Harvey could try an open mike night somewhere.

Titan NewsFlash - SAGE Puts to Sea /Launch time confirmed

An E-mail received late last night from Tom Bell of the Portland Press Herald confirms that the Sage put to sea last night apparently headed for a position in order to monitor the launch of Titan Mission B-30 later this evening.

Bell also quotes US Air Force officials as saying the Titan is expected to lift off at approximately 2050 hrs EDT/ 2220 hrs NDT, the most precise launch information ever released publicly.

The launch is expected to occur between 2000 hr and 2230 hrs Eastern Daylight Savings time this evening. That's 2130 hr on 29 Apr and 0000 30 Apr 05 Newfoundland Daylight Savings Time.

This would confirm that the Sage's mission is to collect and transmit information on the Titan mission for the US Air Force. Bells' story, appearing in today's Press Herald, attributes the extra telemetry to an American desire to show Canada it is taking extra safety precautions. That opinion comes from Peter Brown, senior multimedia editor for VIA Satellite magazine.

Maybe, Peter. Personally I'd put greater weight on the idea that the Sage is merely filling in for one of the existing range instrumentation vessels. The time scales just don't fit; Sage was apparently already offshore Maine for the original launch before Canadian objections. It would have taken a lot longer to get the Sage fitted out and sailing north than the timescale allows, unless the Sage was already equipped. It looks to me like the ship merely docked in Portland waiting for the launch.

An extra telemetry vessel doesn't really send a message to the Canadian government especially since the whole thing is being handled in great secrecy. If you want to send a message to a friendly government, you pick up the phone.

There's no point in being cryptic.

Next thing you'll tell me there was ever a chance of the rocket ever coming in sight of the offshore oil fields let alone hit anything.

Does Norm listen to his Leader?

For the second day in a row, normally sensible Norm Doyle has sounded out-of-touch with reality.

Today he was interviewed by Ramona Dearing on CBC Radio's afternoon drive show, On the Go.

Norm made a number of points - I am paraphrasing here - :

1. The Conservative Party has not decided to bring down the government. Norm needs to start reading the National Lampoon, the unofficial propaganda organ of the Conservative Party of Canada. His Leader is quoted saying: "As soon as Parliament gets back, I will be asking our caucus to put this government out of its misery as early as possible."

Harper's rhetoric is increasingly vicious. The Lampoon quotes him as calling the arrangement between the Liberals and New Democrats to pass the budget as a "deal with the devil." Try acting like a potential prime minister, Steve. It might boost your own personal standing in the polls.

2. The Conservatives haven't decided to vote against the budget. Geez, Norm. A national caucus chairman who sleeps through meetings will get noticed. Norm's Leader has been speaking about bringing down the government over the budget for...what is it... three weeks now at least?

3. You can't cherry-pick the budget. Ok Norm. I'll buy that. So why did your Leader want to have the Kyoto provisions taken out of Bill C-43 in order to gain Conservative support? After the Kyoto provisions were out, why did he continue to complain that the offshore deal money was being left in?

Why are you and Secret Agent 86 Post Offices still rambling on about cherry picking the offshore money out of the budget bill? Scroll down for the answer.

4. The Atlantic Accord is safe. Norm added a rant that the New Democrats didn't do anything to pressure the Liberals to take the offshore money out of C-43 and have it passed as a separate bill.

Watch for a public tender to widen the walls in Norm's office to accommodate his pinocchiosis.

Norm knows full-well that even if the offshore money was a separate bill it wouldn't make it into law before his power-crazed Leader forces the country into an unwanted election. It couldn't pass both the House and Senate and get vice-regal approval in such a short space of time.

Norm also knows his boss wanted all along to handle the matter another way. What is going to stop Stephen Harper, prime minister of a majority government from taking us all back to square one? After all Harper is the guy who flatly stated in writing he wants to sell Ottawa's Hibernia shares and use the money for the good of all Canadians.

Norm also knows that his boss has talked about guaranteeing passage of the agreement if he makes it to the prime minister's office, but hey: can we get that in writing Steve? It's not that we don't trust you, Steve, but any guy who has changed his party position on so many issues in such a short space of time just can't expect to get by on a smile and a hand-shake.

As for the bit about the New Democrats, Norm, they didn't need to take the offshore bit out of the budget bill since now they get to support Newfoundland and Labrador and advance their own issues at the same time.

Here's what it all boils down to: Norm and his colleague, the shadow member for St. John's South- Mount Pearl, are badly jammed up. Their leader is hell-bent on pushing an election no one wants, including their own constituents.

Norm and Loyola know that if C-43 comes to a vote they are screwed. They either vote for it and potentially save the government (Steve remembers these things).

or they vote against the budget and get people in the supermarkets and the churches and the Open Line shows taking strips off their hide for putting Stephen Harper's wishes before the interests of their own province. Suddenly all the Liberal MPs who have supported the provincial government's position on the offshore despite the views of their prime minister look a whole lot better than two guys who made the wrong choice when things got tough.

I'd hate to be those two knocking on doors in St. John's if they voted against money for children, students, seniors...

and Newfoundland and Labrador.

No wonder Norm Doyle keeps trying to separate the offshore money from the budget bill. He is frantically trying to save his own political skin.

No wonder he is sounding a tad squirrelly.

A political jam-up like the one Norm faces would drive anyone nuts.

Advance copy - SAGE info from Portland Press Herald, Maine

Courtesy of Portland Press Herald correspondent Tom Bell is a story due to run tomorrow in the Press Herald. Scroll down a bit to find the beginning.

Many thanks to Tom and his editors for permission to run it here this evening.

Before getting to the advance copy, I just want to chime in with the results of some amateur intel photo interpretation. The Telly today carried an Associated Press photo of the Sage. By measuring the length of the ship in the photo, knowing the length of the vessel and then measuring various bits, it is easy to conclude that the Sage likely carries the same types of radar found on the United States Naval Ship Invincible (T-AGM 24) .

Invincible is used to provide telemetry to launch control stations in Florida and Texas for both manned and unmanned missions from Canaveral. However, Invincible and another range instrumentation ship, USNS Observation Island (T-AGM 23) frequently are deployed to observe foreign missile launches as part of arms control treaty verification. They also are used to collect signals intelligence from missile launches by hostile or potentially hostile countries.

If Invincible is otherwise occupied, it makes sense that Lockheed Martin might be contracted to provide telemetry support to mission B-30/payload NROL-16.

Other than that it might also be involved some other missile launches from test ranges in the southern United States.

Given the timing of the arrival in Portland and the berthing for the past three weeks, odds are good that Sage is going to put to sea tomorrow in support of the B-30 launch (NROL-16)

Of course, Argentia, Newfoundland will also be humming with automated activity too at the old "T" building. It's the one site the Americans kept at the former United States Naval Facility at Argentia. An installation built in the mid-1990s provides telemetry in support of launches from Canaveral just like the one coming up on 29 April 2005.

Without further ado, here's the story coming up tomorrow in Portland:

Copy begins***

A vessel in Portland harbor is equipped with an antenna used to monitor rocket boosters during launches, according to Lockheed Martin, the defense contractor that is leasing the vessel.

But company spokesman Doug Sayers said he didn't know whether the vessel, an offshore supply ship called the Sage, will monitor the space shuttle Discovery, due to be launched next month, or an Air Force Titan rocket, which may be launched from Cape Canaveral, Fla. today.

The Titan is carrying a military satellite into orbit. Its flight path would take it over the ocean on a trajectory parallel to the East Coast.

The exact time is classified. But liftoff will happen sometime between 8 and 10:30 p.m., according to Space Flight Now, a Web site that monitors space activity.

Earlier this month, the Air Force postponed the launch after the Canadian government expressed concern that its 11-ton booster engines jettisoned from the main rocket could crash into the ocean near Newfoundland's offshore oil platforms, 196 miles off St. John's, Newfoundland.

Lockheed Martin manufactured the Discovery boosters at its plant in Michoud, LA and the Titan boosters at its plant in Denver, CO.

The Sage, about 180 feet long, carries two large domes on its aft deck. Many people on the waterfront have been wondering about the vessel's mission. The ship's captain has refused to talk or let anyone near the ship, which for more than three weeks has been tied up in a secure area at the end of Pier 1 at the Portland Ocean Terminal.

The vessel's port of registration is New Orleans, La. The Sage is one of 530 vessels owned by Tidewater, the world's largest offshore marine-services provider.

-30-

SAGE information

News stories on VOCM and in the Telly today discuss a ship docked at Portland, Me that may be a telemetry vessel supporting the launch tomorrow of the last Titan 4B rocket from Canaveral air force station. The Telly story isn't on line.

To get some other information, here's the original story from Portland, in the Portland Press Herald. Here's a story with a photo of the ship, a converted offshore supply vessel. Here's an Associated Press version of the story, sans photo.

The SAGE appears to be owned by a company in Louisiana, called Tidewater, that specializes in the supply of offshore vessels. Some of their ships, as this link indicates, have been adapted for other uses.

For those wanting some boilerplate on the vessel, such as registration data, gross tonnage and construction, here's a detailed link.

This vessel is carrying temporarily installed equipment on the rear deck. The domes presumably shield radar systems of an unknown type. They are mounted on trailers or other temporary shelters housing equipment and support crew.

There has been plenty of speculation on the Internet on this launch and on the appearance of this ship in Portland. Spec is fun; but I will take a closer look and see if I can figure out something a bit more concrete on this.

Postman Loyola - revised (trivia correction)

Ok. This is a cheap excuse to bring back a posting I really enjoyed in order to correct a bit of trivia. No one cared enough to correct me, even if they caught it.

Anyway, in all the hubbub as Stephen Harper desperately tries to force an election on Canadians who overwhelmingly don't want it, here's a reminder of Loyola Hearn and his complete lack of credibility.

This story about post offices, which Loyola was pushing, turned out to be complete crapola. So much for Loyola and his inside knowledge.

The trivia error? It wasn't Dr. Yes who used to say thlee possibirities, it was Harry Who, a send up of the old Charlie Chan character. He appeared in Season One of Get Smart in an episode called "The Amazing Harry Who". That's also the episode where we first meet The Craw.

And if you think I am the only Get Smart fan out there, check this post from Paul Wells. April 26 to be specific with a reference to the Cone of Silence.

Trivia question: What's the connection between Max, 99 and Newfoundland?



Following on Loyola Hearn's claim of having a list of 86 post-office closures in Newfoundland and Labrador, VOCM is reporting two things today.

1. Canada Post says there is no list.

2. Loyola Hearn apparently said, as VOCM put it, "a number of communities in this province, including those in his riding, would be in the same sort of situation." The same situation means being 24 miles from the nearest post office or inconvenienced enough that it feels like you are 24 miles away.

Being the curious fellow, I took a trip over to the Canada Post website and typed in my postal code in order to find nearby postal outlets. My house is in the middle of the riding, geographically and maybe a little to the western end by some assessments. I am certainly where a chunk of the people live and nearby are the more rural bits of the riding, like Kilbride and the Goulds.

According to Canada Post there are eight nearby postal outlets including an actual postal station in Mount Pearl. They gave me a whole bunch in another riding too, by the way. The majority of postal service is provided by retail outlets operating in drug stores and the like. The whole riding isn't really 24 miles across so I started to wonder what is going on here.

So here's the funky bit.

If the only actual Canada Post outlet is the one in Mount Pearl, how in the name of all that is sensible can Canada Post put Loyola Hearn's riding in a position where his constituents are going to be something like 24 miles from the nearest post office. Even if we assume that Mount Pearl closes - and there is absolutely no proof that is even being thought about except by me - there isn't a single resident of St. John's South-Mount Pearl who would be hard-done-by for postal service.

As Dr. Yes used to say on Get Smart, there are thlee possibirities:

- Either Canada Post is not telling the truth and they plan to shut a whole raft of postal outlets in St. John's, Mount Pearl and surrounding areas;

- VOCM has misrepresented what Loyola actually did say; or,

- Loyola is actually talking about some other riding than the one he actually represents. Maybe Loyola thinks he represents the place where he lives - Renews - which is actually in John Efford's riding of Avalon.

The source of this whole cock-up? I can see it now. Loyola in a trenchcoat talking to his very own Agent 13 inside a post office box on the streets of Ottawa.

Loyola: "I thought you said they were going to close 86 post offices."

Agent 13: " 'I said they might close post offices, 86.' I never gave you an exact number."

Loyola: "Don't tell me I got the whole thing screwed up again."

Agent 13: "You got the whole thing screwed up again."

Loyola: "I asked you not to tell me that."

I miss Maxwell Smart more than ever.

Norm Doyle - Zero on the cred-o-meter

As I sat here working away on another proposal, I caught one Norman Doyle, the Conservative member of parliament for St. John's North, chatting with Bill Rowe on his afternoon talk-show.

He was defending the Connie position that people shouldn't look on a federal election, as he put it, "as an inconvenience".

Excuse me, Norm? The public has never suggested in any poll that an election is an inconvenience. Ever. In fact they are adamant they view an election as unnecessary. Unneeded and unwelcome. They want election after they have all the facts from Justice Gomery's report.

Unfortunately for Norman, his leader - Stephen Harper - is hell bent on driving everyone to the polls so Norm must toe the party line. Norm must sacrifice his own personal credibility for the wave of nonsense emanating from Harper's clique. Norman also knows that Harper's position is at odds with the wishes of the Canadian people.

Norman also knows that in a few days we will be in an election and the offshore money will be but a faint dream if the Connie's get elected as government. Stephen Harper never ever supported the offshore deal; he has another idea entirely. Norm will be running hard to convince the people of his riding the deal is actually safe if the government falls, given that his Leader today announced his party will definitely be voting against Bill C-43 - the budget bill including the offshore money.

But if that wasn't bad enough, Norm went right off Red Cliff when he actually said that the current government is "totally corrupt".

Sheer, out-and-out crap, Norm. You know it is crap and yet you said it.

Unfounded accusations like that are one of the refuges of the truly desparate.

I can appreciate his tough spot.

If he votes with his party, defeats the budget and the government, he has screwed the province out of $2.0 billion.

If he votes with the province's offshore interests, he may well keep the Liberals in power and thereby earn the hatred of his Connie colleagues.

For Loyola, I can only wish such a Hearn-iated decision on the pretend-MP for St. John's South- Mount Pearl.

I actually feel sorry for Norm Doyle.

Genuinely, truly sorry.

A medal for Tom Orsmby

Anyone who read my post over the weekend titled "D'oh! D'oh! D'oh! for Tommy O" will know that I criticized Tom Ormsby, John Efford's communications director, for leaving a story on VOCM that contradicted the CBC story on Friday night that John Efford was considering retiring from politics.

John's own media comments on Tuesday suggested that the federal minister is seeking medical advice before making any decision on his future in politics.

Well, let's be clear about my overall opinion.

Tom Ormsby deserves a medal.

He has one of the hardest jobs in the world, namely working as John Efford's communications director. If Tom gets out of the job with his sanity intact, he deserves to get some kind of gong.

Efford is one of those guys, like Danny Williams and a raft of others in politics, who keeps his own counsel. It's tough to get him to stay on message - meaning say what you need to say without going off on a tangent or adding in other stuff that just confuses or clouds things or gets you into trouble without cause. John is energetic, works hard and always has the best of intentions. But sometimes that just isn't enough.

Some guys - and it's usually a guy-thing - get cured of their total self-reliance by getting the crap kicked out of them once in the media. Sometimes it takes two whomps to sort them out. Some never learn.

Pretty well every public relations practitioner I know has at least one life-long friend in the guy who got advice, ignored it, got racked over the coals and then realized that what you told him beforehand was damned good advice.

Yosemite Sam. The camel. A two-by-four between the eyes. You can figure out the analogy, even if it isn't perfect.

So John backpeddles a bit from Friday. I still think David Cochrane's story on CBC and his interpretation were accurate based on the Efford interview he did on Friday. In fact, given the amount of time John spent talking about his poor health on Tuesday I still say odds are better for John leaving politics than staying around much longer.

I wouldn't be surprised to find out there was a telephone call or two to John encouraging him gently to "fix" the impression left by David Cochrane.

But overall, Efford is now trying to say that he is staying and will only go if his doctors tell him otherwise.

Having said that, I still think Tom should have corrected or clarified the VOCM story. VOCM is ultimately responsible for their stuff but if they put the weight on the wrong idea or misinterpret the comments Tom made or anyone else made, then there is always a way to get the perspective back on the right track. Both VO and Tommy O want to make sure the story is accurate.

Saying the minister has "no plans to withdraw from politics in the near future", as VOCM reported Tom as saying, sounds like spin. Regular readers of these scribbles know just how much I hate spin - half-truths. "I have no plans right now," said Mr. So-and-So. Logically, the question should follow: "Yeah, but what about tomorrow?" Tom doesn't strike me as a spinner so the VOCM story was off, but the comments were attributed to Tom. He winds up wearing them one way or another.

The thing is, it doesn't hurt to let people get a much deeper understanding of the issues facing a politician like John Efford. For example, if the docs tell John the problems are all self-inflicted, then maybe John could have said something like this: "I have been in politics for 20 years. Lately, I have not been looking after myself as well as I should be. So I'll have to fix that, if that's what my doctors tell me." He can transition out to a partisan attack, launch into a passionate talk about working for the people of the province. Anything - just tackle the main point fully and frankly up front.

Admit ya screwed up John, if that's the case; don't try to milk any false sympathy - it looks pathetic and demeaning. A guy who has been in politics as long as John Efford and accomplished as much should be talking straightforwardly. You are human, John. People understand human.

No one likes the smell of burning martyr.

This kick John has been on lately doesn't sound like the guy who used to dominate the House of Assembly and I am at a loss to understand what has happened.

Just remember that public relations is about relationships. They are long-term and involve human beings with all the failings that go with being human. Relationships are built on credibility. Spin is just a rot through everything, so avoid it.

And for Tom Ormsby, I won't patronize him by saying he has my sympathy. He has a tough job - one of the toughest around - for a whole bunch of reasons.

What Tom does have, though, is my respect, for whatever that is worth, for working in a hard environment and keeping his sanity.

Anytime he wants a beer, the drinks are on me - at least the first round is. I'll gladly lend him my ear in full confidence.

And if he wants to borrow my two-by-four, he's welcome to it.

It might come in handy.

Indy gets its chops back

Fresh from its Michener awards showing, the Indy seems to be back where it should be this week with the first issue in a long while that had interesting stuff in it that no one else covered or covered in as much detail.

The story that caught my eye was one by a newbie so new that his name couldn't make into the online version of the story.

Quote - "“If we are able to do it on our own, then absolutely. I'’m sure the people of the province would like to have it as a totally owned, operated and built project by the province that'’s not an option that has been ruled out",” Williams tells The Independent. - end quote.

Ok.

That sounds nice, doesn't it? We get to own what is ours unlike that nasty Upper Churchill contract.

And how would we finance it?

Well, presumably the provincial government - read you and me - would combine our offshore money with some borrowing. The story openly discusses that diea coming straight from the Premier's lips.

Ok.

Well, that blows the $2.0 billion on a project that will take upwards of 15 years to build according to Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro chairman Dean MacDonald. He's Danny's buddy by the way.

It also would involve borrowing about $3.0 billion to make up the gap between the cash we have and what it would take to build the Lower Churchill on our own.

Now that is a curious suggestion for a Premier who last year said we were teetering on the verge of imminent collapse with our huge deficit and crushing debt.

Danny Williams has gone from deficit demon killer to debt's best friend.

Personally, I think this is an abysmal idea in every possible respect. I draw you back to my observation after the budget was released that the Williams' government seems to be planning on running up the debt to record levels - peaking at a time when the province can least afford to service it.

At the time, the economy will be out of its growth phase and the dependent population (the Baby Boomers) will be much bigger than the number of people earning an honest living. Growing bills. Shrinking income. Recipe for disaster.

I can hear the strains of an old campaign theme song that never was: "We're here for a good time//Not a long time//So have a good time//The sun won't shine everyday."

The Premier also said something else in the Indy I'd like to find out more about: new potential long-term customers. There are really only a few likely long-term customers. We'd never get cash from the banks on our own, by the way; Customers are the key to securing the loans needed to build the project. Who exactly are the new customers considering that the customers we could likely sell it to have all stepped up to express an interest?

Are these new customers real customers, or is this just Tobinesque hype?

Oh yes. Speaking of Tobin for the second time (guess which was the first?):

Anybody else notice Brian Tobin's recent appointment to the board of Aecon, a compnay that specializes in large construction projects? I'd lay money that Aecon is either one of the 10 bids that complied with the Lower Churcill expression of interest call (i.e. covering everything from generate to construction to sale)

or

it was one of the non-compliant bids that would normally get tossed in the bin, except that in this case they fuel Danny Williams' plan to cut a deal of his won and develop the Lower Churchill through Hydro

or

Aecon will be prepared to have the new director cut a deal with Tobin's old golfing buddy on said local option.

That last bit isn't in the Indy, by the way. The local politicos and the political junkies like me have all been thinking out loud since the silver job-surfer's picture showed up in the papers. Everyone of us came to the same conclusion so I thought I'd just put it out there for everyone else to share.

It ain't over 'til it's over

Disneyland on the Rideau continues to produce high quality entertainment, complete with various cartoonish characters.

The deal with the NDP to help pass the budget is just one of the many things we can expect to see coming from Ottawa in the political climate in the House of Commons. The climate is largely created by Stephen Harper, who appears more interested in pushing the idea of an election(maybe to divert attention from his internal policy shortcomings) rather than making the House work. His comments in the Globe today were made on a "campaign-style" swing through Ontario.

This continues despite yet another poll showing Canadians overwhelming want two things:

1. No election.

2. The Gomery report in their hot little hands before anyone heads to the polls.

So except for Stephen Harper and the dweeb who wrote yesterday's CanWest story in the Telly. The dweeb is a dweeb because he looked at a poll in which the Conservative climb in the polls flattened out, in which Canadians said the same thing Paul martin said in his speech and concluded, not what the poll said (see above) but:

1. The Liberals had stalled.

2. The Prime Minister's speech had no effect on anything.

I take it the story originated in the National Lampoon. And then they wonder why their circulation is dropping through the floor.

Shag democracy. Now there's money involved.

Nice to see Danny Williams suddenly decide he had to support the rule of law.

Unfortunately it took a threat to business interests to animate him, not the hijacking of democratic rights in the House of Assembly.

Ah well, everyone has their own sensitivities.

The Rocket on the Rock - Get your hats here!

While everyone is hopelessly Earth-bound, I will be looking to the skies again later this week as the last Titan 4B launch vehicle slips gracefully from its base at Canaveral and streaks into the heavens.

The date you may ask?

As far as I know right now it is this weekend. It may be as early as Friday 29 Apr 05; it may be as late as Sunday 01 May 05. If the pattern holds the launch time is likely sometime between 2230 hrs Eastern Daylight Savings Time and midnight. That translates out to between 0000 hrs and 0130 hr Newfoundland Daylight Savings Time.

My money is on Friday.

Howard Pike from the offshore regulatory board is supposed to be heading out as a gesture of reassurance that all is well. Howard can feel free to send me an e-mail about the experience and I promise to post it in its entirety.

Army Navy Surplus should have a sale on used helmets so that anyone feeling a bit nervous about the whole thing can have some small comfort.

I'd suggest the Kevlar models which can run upwards of CDN$100. While they are good at protecting skulls from most flying objects, they can't be used as bowls or wash basins as the old steel pots could.

If this was anywhere else on the planet, some enterprising young person would be selling hats of some kind with a logo on it depicting the rocket, the province and somebody holding a Jockey Club enjoying the show.

Hodder finds spine - too little, too late

Harvey Hodder today took it upon himself to close the galleries to the House of Assembly indefinitely in response to the disruptions that have been taking place.

This has been going on for maybe three weeks of sitting days.

Three days was too long.

Hodder has looked indecisive and decidedly nervous both in the House and in recent television interviews. Today's decree is too little, too late.

As a result of today's decision, the Opposition parties have walked out looking for a way to fight the Speaker's decree.

Here's an idea.

Move a motion of no confidence in the Speaker. It will be defeated but it will send a powerful message to a Speaker who lacks the control over the House and its business the legislature needs to function properly.

As for the Opposition, they should also chastise themselves for letting the House be hijacked by outside interests. They have turned a blind eye to this crab protest solely for its political value That is no excuse or reason.

They are quick to point the finger at government members, but truthfully, every one of the 48 members of the House are complicit in the surrendering control of the legislature to outside pressure groups.

If someone came into the galleries with a pistol, the members would figure out pretty quickly what to do.

Irrespective of the cause, there is no justification for seizing control of the House by any means.

Any member of the House who has willingly surrendered control of the House ought to resign.

Let's elect people to the legislature who have some respect for our democratic traditions.

Let's get some people in the House who are willing to put partisan interests aside when fundamental interests are at stake.

At the very least, let's start by finding a Speaker who can handle the job.

Harvey obviously can't cut it.

Connies: What's in a name?

Sometime while writing the post earlier today on the latest poll results, I hit on the name Connie for the Conservatives and the idea of stalling.

It was an easy leap to the image of the Lockheed L-1049 Super Constellation. It was the last of great prop airliners, as this link says. Originally designed in 1943, the Connie was fast and had long-legs. After the Second World War, Lockheed bought as many as they could from the US Army Air Corps and Air Force to turn them into civilian airliners. The Connie lasted for years and a few are still around as that link and this one suggest.

It was finally eclipsed by the advent of jet airliners, although Connie are still used visually to represent that period of the late 1940s and early 1950s when long-range passenger travel was still in its infancy. Here are some more pictures.

Connie. Pride of the 1950s.

Not everything has deep or hidden meaning.

Sometimes a cigar shaped airplane fuselage is just another classic airplane.

Con-nies stall ?

For those who were busily hunting out trees for the upcoming Liberal lynching parties, consider this story from the parent of the National Lampoon. It's actually a Canadian Press story by John Ward.

The latest poll by Decima research shows the Conservatives at 32% compared to 35% last week. The Liberals are at 28% up from 27%. The results are well within the confidence level of the poll, but here's the key thing: the numbers didn't go up for the Conservatives.

All the polling these past few weeks has been pretty much on track. Anticipate other polls will show the same slow-down in the Conservative rise and the consequent cooling of rhetoric.

Harper will claim victory as he retreats from an election call, but he is really doing some dog-whistling here. (See a few paragraphs down).

As I put it recently on a political panel, the Conservatives have jumped on to news that was bound to push up the Liberal negatives; that is, they are reinforcing negative attitudes toward Liberals based on the sudden unleash of goner testimony and the associated media pile-on.

Unfortunately for the Harperites, they don't have or didn't do anything to drive up their own positives. As a result, when voters get tired of endless choruses "burn the witch", they start looking for a new theme. With the prospect of an election, they start looking closely to see if the other guys have any positives. If they don't see any, then the poll numbers will reflect that in the current Con-nie stall. [Pssst, that's a bit of an aviation reference there.]

Hence, there is much wisdom in the advice from Big Conservative Hugh Segal. Mulroney's former chief of staff said two weeks ago that Gomery would last to day four of an election. Then people would start to think about who actually would form a good government. [Note: Segal, by the way, has the good sense to live in Kingston, Ontario, one of the most beautiful place in the world, even if the unfortunate sod could only manage to find a job lecturing to Queen'sies. I am not sure that qualifies as gainful employment.]

Well, ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, we are at that point, I'd venture, and we haven't seen the writ yet.

By the way, Loyola Hearn, chief local hang-man at the execution of the Progressive Conservative Party should take a powerful lesson here on his own behaviour. Hearn, who at least on paper represents St. John's South-Mount Pearl, has done sweet fanny adams to speak to the actual concerns of the riding. His biggest tirade: defending the post offices in it. Unfortunately for Hearn, there is only one post office in the riding, as opposed to postal outlets run by the private sector. To make it even worse, Hearn actually predicted that some of the closures Canada Post was planning were in the riding and that people would be mightily inconvenienced.

Turns out there are no plans for any closures. D'oh!

The dog whistle here? Loyola was talking to people of another riding, the one he plans to run in. Expect one of the Osbournes to offer up in St. John's South-Mount Pearl; Big and very capable political machine very adept at getting out the vote. Anyone tangling them better be ready for a hard fight. Politics is no place for fools or wimps and the Osbournes are neither.

But back to the story - basically, the Harper plan is aimed solely at Conservative partisans; it's the classic dog-whistle approach. For those without link-ability, dog whistle messages use code words that are picked up by the intended audiences but ignored by the rest. The link is to an article in The Economist on the current British general election. The Canadian Conservatives are not really using refined dog whistle stuff but they are getting close.

The Conservative rhetoric is vicious - as in violent - and personal. Harper's communications director compared the PM to Osama Bin Laden, for example, although he quickly apologized. (You guys think Scott Reid is tough?)

If committed Conservatives are truly, viscerally angry at Liberals, then calling Martin Osama will resonate; even if you apologize publicly, your guys have still reacted to the message anyways which is what you want. The phrase won't strike the same intense reaction in non-Conservatives, anyway but who cares about them? There are other ways of reaching those inclined to vote Conservative.

The Harperite problem comes when people like... say... Liberals start flagging the dog whistle stuff and pointing it out for what it is. If the Liberals can get onto that track and the Conservatives don't have any real positives, then they can kiss 24 Sussex good-bye.

So, for those who have been living by the polls these past few weeks, I say go back to your real jobs. Polls are no basis for decision-making, especially these days.

Media commentary is subject to huge variations from day to day, especially since some of the pundits don't have a clue what they are talking about when it comes to political consulting. I didn't hear Allan Bonner on Radio Noon, for example, but from what I can gather his advice was...ummm... less than commendable.

Anyway, this long Tuesday posting is a reminder that in politics three weeks is a long time.

Marketing isn't rocket science, supposedly

Catch phrases are bizarre things and you wonder sometimes where people come up with these things. Courtesy of Andrew Coyne is a link to a phrase-generator.

Type in Ed Hollett and you get this:

"Ed Hollett is a genetically-modified sheep that keeps your carpets clean! It communicates with wireless devices and makes reassuring noises."

Enough said.

Perspective matters

If you aren't a regular reader of Paul Wells, check out his blog today.

He points out the fiscal impact of the corporate tax cuts that Jack Layton is making the price for his support of the Liberal government and its budget.

As Paul says at the end of his blog post, "Draw your own conclusions about what that means. My minimal point is that we have these national debates with incredibly high political stakes and you so rarely see anyone pause to explain the relative scale of things."

Perspective matters.

Another word for it is "context".

Crosbie saw corruption up close, I guess

John Crosbie's column in the new Independent is one part laughable and one part pathetic, but definitely readable just to see what the guy who used to talk like Ottawa's gauleiter in Newfoundland is thinking these days.

Crosbie is ever sanctimonious, saying that the way to get rid of "corruption" in Ottawa is by electing a "non-Liberal", i.e. Conservative government. JC is practicing a bit of dog-whistle messaging here, but it is a ham-fisted attempt since it is pretty easy to see that Crosbie is less analyst and commentator than relentless party hack.

I commend to anyone's reading any book by Stevie Cameron. While there are flaws in the books, Cameron documents, among other things, the corruption within the federal Conservative Party in Quebec during the 1980s. Oh heavens, Mr. Crosbie. Could it be true? [audible gasp of mock-horror]

In at least one book, there are even mentions of Crosbie and Craig Dobbin, who Cameron describes as one of Crosbie's big fund-raisers. The mentions are definitely not in the context of crime.

Nope. Crosbie and Dobbin get mentioned because of sweetheart deals and financial support related to Dobbin's business operations wherein government rules were bent just a tad to benefit Dobbin. Seems there's a family tradition of being a self-proclaimed free-enterpriser who sucks heavily on the public tit.

There are other sections of On the take describing funky advertising deals that sound reminiscent of...wait for it... Adscam.

So Crosbie's column is a joke, even if Crosbie didn't intend it to be laughable. By Crosbie's standard, the Mulroney government should have gone to the polls at the first sign of corruption within their ranks. That would have been shortly after 1984 when Mulroney was first elected prime minister.

Of course, a little sober thinking shows Crosbie's comments for what they are: partisan drivel. That's just about all Crosbie has been good for since he left politics in 1993. Then again, when wasn't Crosbie good primarily for partisan drivel?

So here it is: Adscam was wrong. The cops and Gomery will root it out, identify those responsible and lead to the punishment of the guilty.

Corruption inside federal political parties in Quebec or any one province is no cause for a general election when the public overwhelming rejects the idea of an election.

The next federal election, whenever it comes should be about which party is the best to run the country. It's a choice to be made by ordinary voters, not Crosbie-like elites.

What ordinary people want has seldom been a concept John Crosbie understood during his career in politics.

My, oh my how things haven't changed.

As for Cameron, she has been so harried for comment she is starting a new blog dealing with Canadian politics.

I look forward to it, if for no other reason than it will be a counterpoint to the stuff pumped out by outlets like the National Lampoon.

Living with a Hearn-ia

This story in the Globe makes comments by Loyola Hearn and his buddy Norm Doyle just a bit funny.

In trying to gain some backing for their stand against the government's budget bill, both Peckford-era cabinet ministers (remember the wild spending by their boss and the Sprung greenhouse they approved?) have been talking about the 22 or 23 measures lumped into Bill C-43 along with the offshore revenue money.

Well those "difficult", "controversial", "contentious" issues in C-43 that the old boys find so difficult include tax cuts liked by the business community, money for seniors, the cities' gas tax credit and money to promote early childhood education and nutrition.

Now the Globe story refers to the death of tax cuts due to a partnership between the New Democrats and the Liberal government, but here's the funny part. The Conservatives have been beating the drum against Bill C-43, not the New Democrats. The guys threatening to bring down the government before C-43 passes are guys like Loyola Hearn.

You remember Loyola? He's the guy from Renews who has been biding his time as the sham-member of parliament for St. John's South-Mount Pearl.

Anyway, if I was Thomas D'Aquino, I'd been putting the squeeze on the Conservatives. Their hunger for an election against the wishes of the overwhelming majority of Canadians is the reason parliament is in a jam at the moment...

and money for everyone is being threatened.