For those who were busily hunting out trees for the upcoming Liberal lynching parties, consider this story from the parent of the National Lampoon. It's actually a Canadian Press story by John Ward.
The latest poll by Decima research shows the Conservatives at 32% compared to 35% last week. The Liberals are at 28% up from 27%. The results are well within the confidence level of the poll, but here's the key thing: the numbers didn't go up for the Conservatives.
All the polling these past few weeks has been pretty much on track. Anticipate other polls will show the same slow-down in the Conservative rise and the consequent cooling of rhetoric.
Harper will claim victory as he retreats from an election call, but he is really doing some dog-whistling here. (See a few paragraphs down).
As I put it recently on a political panel, the Conservatives have jumped on to news that was bound to push up the Liberal negatives; that is, they are reinforcing negative attitudes toward Liberals based on the sudden unleash of goner testimony and the associated media pile-on.
Unfortunately for the Harperites, they don't have or didn't do anything to drive up their own positives. As a result, when voters get tired of endless choruses "burn the witch", they start looking for a new theme. With the prospect of an election, they start looking closely to see if the other guys have any positives. If they don't see any, then the poll numbers will reflect that in the current Con-nie stall. [Pssst, that's a bit of an aviation reference there.]
Hence, there is much wisdom in the advice from Big Conservative Hugh Segal. Mulroney's former chief of staff said two weeks ago that Gomery would last to day four of an election. Then people would start to think about who actually would form a good government. [Note: Segal, by the way, has the good sense to live in Kingston, Ontario, one of the most beautiful place in the world, even if the unfortunate sod could only manage to find a job lecturing to Queen'sies. I am not sure that qualifies as gainful employment.]
Well, ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, we are at that point, I'd venture, and we haven't seen the writ yet.
By the way, Loyola Hearn, chief local hang-man at the execution of the Progressive Conservative Party should take a powerful lesson here on his own behaviour. Hearn, who at least on paper represents St. John's South-Mount Pearl, has done sweet fanny adams to speak to the actual concerns of the riding. His biggest tirade: defending the post offices in it. Unfortunately for Hearn, there is only one post office in the riding, as opposed to postal outlets run by the private sector. To make it even worse, Hearn actually predicted that some of the closures Canada Post was planning were in the riding and that people would be mightily inconvenienced.
Turns out there are no plans for any closures. D'oh!
The dog whistle here? Loyola was talking to people of another riding, the one he plans to run in. Expect one of the Osbournes to offer up in St. John's South-Mount Pearl; Big and very capable political machine very adept at getting out the vote. Anyone tangling them better be ready for a hard fight. Politics is no place for fools or wimps and the Osbournes are neither.
But back to the story - basically, the Harper plan is aimed solely at Conservative partisans; it's the classic dog-whistle approach. For those without link-ability, dog whistle messages use code words that are picked up by the intended audiences but ignored by the rest. The link is to an article in The Economist on the current British general election. The Canadian Conservatives are not really using refined dog whistle stuff but they are getting close.
The Conservative rhetoric is vicious - as in violent - and personal. Harper's communications director compared the PM to Osama Bin Laden, for example, although he quickly apologized. (You guys think Scott Reid is tough?)
If committed Conservatives are truly, viscerally angry at Liberals, then calling Martin Osama will resonate; even if you apologize publicly, your guys have still reacted to the message anyways which is what you want. The phrase won't strike the same intense reaction in non-Conservatives, anyway but who cares about them? There are other ways of reaching those inclined to vote Conservative.
The Harperite problem comes when people like... say... Liberals start flagging the dog whistle stuff and pointing it out for what it is. If the Liberals can get onto that track and the Conservatives don't have any real positives, then they can kiss 24 Sussex good-bye.
So, for those who have been living by the polls these past few weeks, I say go back to your real jobs. Polls are no basis for decision-making, especially these days.
Media commentary is subject to huge variations from day to day, especially since some of the pundits don't have a clue what they are talking about when it comes to political consulting. I didn't hear Allan Bonner on Radio Noon, for example, but from what I can gather his advice was...ummm... less than commendable.
Anyway, this long Tuesday posting is a reminder that in politics three weeks is a long time.
