There's just no pleasing some people

Danny Williams tries to pretend he is not taking sides in the federal election. [The deputy premier is.]

He praises Stephen Harper, even though much of Harper's letter is a promise to talk.

He says nice things about Jack Layton, who actually offered Danny everything he asked for.

When the prime minister's letter comes through, Danny dismisses it as being "disappointing".

That despite the fact it addresses every concern and in considerable detail in some cases. It provides firm opportunities of funding for the Lower Churchill, and actually would increase federal presence in the province in a way that is attainable (unlike Harper's B/s military promises).

It's worth reading the actual letter, compare it to the other two and then try and figure out what Danny is up to. Apparently, it isn't trying to influence the local election results.

Yep. And pulling down the Canadian flag last year was a good idea. (Just ask the Premier's favourite pollster on that one.)

Of course, it's scarcely surprising that Williams would misrepresent a letter from Stephen Harper. Last year, Williams wanted people to believe Harper said yes to the province's proposal on offshore revenues when in fact Harper said a big "no".

Twice.

If Stephen Harper had been elected year before last, Danny would still be waiting for his offshore cheque.

If Stephen Harper had been elected last spring, by Harper's own words, we'd still be trying to figure out the Equalization changes Harper said would address Williams' issues.

Danny would still be waiting for his cheque.

But then again, Danny isn't taking sides. [Tom Rideout, Loyola Sullivan and most of cabinet is. But not Danny. Rideout, the deputy premier and another relic of the Peckford regime is telling people a Conservative majority would be best for the province. Backupable Tom obviously forgets the endless rackets with Ottawa under Mulroney.]

I just hope he has someone working overtime to calculate how much the province will be losing in federal transfers under Stephen Harper's plan to change Equalization.

Meanwhile, this headline seems to have been written by someone who is under the impression CBC has already been sold to Fox.

There's no quote in the story to confirm Williams said the PM's response "falls flat."

He said it fell short. It's just hard to see where exactly.

And on the Gander weather office and federal presence piece, "falls short" means gives more than we asked for.

There's just no pleasing some people.

Get a load of the Connies...

calling Crap Talk on vocm.com and complaining that the Prime Minister's commitment to move the Canadian Ice Service in Gander (75 jobs) and spending $3.0 million to improve weather forecasting in the province, commitment to cost-share paving of the major highway in Labrador and continued commitment to extending Canada's offshore jurisdiction as being not good enough.

The caller on now, who may be from anywhere in the province, says the Gander offer isn't good enough because it isn't for the 16 jobs she signed a petition for.

Brian: "There's no pleasing some people."

Ex-Leper: "That's just what Jesus said Sir..."

I await the hate mail from people who never liked Life of Brian.

Santa Paul answers Danny

Last but by no means least is Paul Martin's response to Danny Williams' pre-Christmas letter to Santa.

Some of the questions were answered by the deputy prime minister in a separate letter.

It has the greatest level of detail of the three letters and the most specific responses in most categories.

Martin also commits to improving weather forecasting in the province and moving the Canadian Ice Service to Gander. That works out to be a commitment to move over four times the number of jobs to Gander as lost in the relocation of weather forecasting.

On the Hibernia shares, the Prime Minister states that sale of the shares is not a federal government priority at this time.

On the Lower Churchill, the PM reaffirms his commitment to assistance, but not in the way the Premier wants. That is, the PM doesn't commit to a federal loan guarantee that would allow the province to build the entire project on its own. The estimated cost of $3-5 billion would count against the province's debt load in that scenario.

Danny's response?

The responses from Mr. Martin are clearly not as definitive as some of those from Mr. Harper and Mr. Layton. This is disappointing from the provincial government'’s perspective;...

Adding more jobs to Gander is not as responsive as giving the premier exactly what he asked for even if what he asked for is less.

Go figure.

But hey, don't take my word for it.

Put aside any partisan biases and evaluate the letters on their individual merits.

From the Land of Old, Bad Ideas...

comes this announcement from Jim Bennett, the only declared candidate for the provincial Liberal leadership.

His idea is to have the government buy shares in Fishery Products International, in effect to nationalize the company in whole or in part.

There is little to commend Bennett's idea to any serious consideration, despite the support Bennett already has for it.

The Marxist-Leninist Daily, online organ of the Communist Party of Canada (Marxist-Leninist) for example, already advocated nationalizing the company some time ago. So too, did Bill Callahan, a Liberal cabinet minister in the last Smallwood administration and one of Bennett's backers.

Nationalizing is the oldest of bad ideas that we have repeated over and over again, without success. The only places that tried it more often with less success than us used to fly the hammer and sickle and dream of the proletarian revolution.

One can only wait for the eye-glass factory or linerboard scheme or the Sprung Greenhouse to return.

Our province has seen enough of this sorts of politics, about $12 billion in provincial debt-enough.

Better to send these ideas back to the ash heap of history rather than hold them up as a plausible idea.

If this is the Bennett has to offer, Liberals can only hope someone else can raise the $10, 000 to get into the race.

Otherwise, the Liberal Party is doomed to the same obscurity as the other party espousing nationalization of industries long after that proved to be an utter failure as a policy.

If it walks like a duck, and looks like a duck and quacks like a duck...

Odds are it is Connie incumbent candidate Loyola Hearn who is returning to his old habit of ducking interviews.

He had the chance to participate in a radio panel with his fellow candidates this morning but made it plain he wasn't available.

Period.

Ever.

He was busy.

How busy? Real busy.

Washing his hair.

Yep. There's accountability for you.

and it looks like a whole bunch of people are going to vote this guy back again.

So he can talk about things like custodial management and accomplish not a whit.

Dr. Thomas goes to Ottawa?

democraticspace.com is showing Rondo Thomas running ahead of his Liberal rival in the Ontario riding of Ajax-Pickering.

Thomas' website makes him look like a run-of-the-mill Conservative. There's not much beyond the party platform, crafted to appeal to middle-of-the-road, cliche using Canadians like me.

Then there's Rick Mercer's take on the guy complete with a link to some video of Rondo in full flight in his declared war against anyone not sharing his brand of Christian views.

Get a sense of what Rondo will mean to parliament here and on the Bond papers from early December. Chunks of the country are taking a turn toward the North American right, complete with our very own bible-thumpers.

If Rondo gets elected, we'll have to see if he turns out to be a run-of-the-mill Conservative after all.

An agenda of hope

Under a Conservative Harper government, will Canadians learn to

1. Hope that the Connie finance minister is better at math than the guys who worked on the Connie campaign?

2. Hope that Steve Harper is the second coming of a Progressive Conservative prime minister of the country rather than the rebirth of a provincial premier?

3. Hope that Stockwell Day doesn't become either the foreign affairs or health minister?

4. Hope that the Conservatives aren't the party of hidden special interest groups? Check out their Jack Layton ad (Jack Talk) for a good laugh at pot calling the kettle names.

5. Hope that $2.30 cents a day actually adds up to choice in child care?

6. Hope that Dave Frum doesn't get a job writing speeches for the Connies only to give him more fodder for another tell-all book?

7. Hope that the CBC isn't sold to Fox?

8. Hope that political parties will stop tossing around the word Nazi like it means nothing?

9. Hope that Stephen Harper says the same thing in every place in the country? As opposed to "It's different in North Bay, and I will deliver a different speech in North Bay," he said. "I try to match my speeches to the crowd."

Santa Jack answers Danny's letter

Jack Layton's response to Danny Williams is in.

Find it at gov.nl.ca under news releases or follow this convenient link provided free of charge by Bond Papers.

In a nutshell, and as the last time, Jack Layton is the only leader who in writing is giving Danny everything he is asking for. We should soon see an endorsement of Jack Layton by the provincial government. I am not holding my breath.

For people who stock in these things, Jack is the man. Note the evident lack of attacks in the Layton letter compared to Harper's missive. Harper spent about as much time slagging Liberals as he does actually answering the questions.

The closest Harper came is to say "we'll talk".

My favourite bits to compare, aside from the custodial management thingy, are the sections on federal presence.

[Aside: As for my own view, federal presence in the way it has been presented by so many is a bit of a non-issue in light of something like say re-organizing the fishery. it's a subcomponent of a lot of issues, but having federal jobs here for the sake of having them just isn't my favourite way to spend my tax dollars. It wasn't when Tobin shifted hordes of provincial public servants from St. John's to other communities. That's still my view on the federal ones as well.]

Harper's commitment, after moaning about the losses and acknowledging there is an imbalance in distribution? "an effort must be made to ensure that there is a fair distribution of the federal government presence across the country." In short: we'll give it the old college try.

Right after that he promises to put the handful of jobs back in Gander forecasting weather. After all, that's all anyone actually asked for specifically.

A little later in the letter, Harper also mentions his defence initiatives (which will be damned near impossible to pull off) as a further attempt to deal with this.

Jack's reply? Very similar, except for this: "We are committed to reviewing federal government policies that have led to this situation with a view to ensuring fairness and full access to federal government delivery of programs and services in this province."

Layton's letter contains language that is less equivocal than the Harper one on just about all fronts.

Expect that, as the last time, people will tell you the Harper letter says things it doesn't say. Jack's letter will be ignored even though he said "yes" to everything.

National seat projections

Paul Wells has pumped both the most recent Ekos and Strategic Counsel numbers through the Hill and Knowlton and come up with two results that show either a small Conservative majority or a chunkier one.

The most recent SES numbers produce a seat projection like this:

CPC 145
LPC 80
NDP 29
Bloc 53
Oth 1

Interestingly this set of numbers shows the central Newfoundland riding changing to the Conservatives.

One of the results Paul uses has a seat in the province going New Democrat. I don't think so.

All this goes to illustrate a few points:

1. The polls are shifting which means public opinion is shifting somewhat.

2. Variation you are seeing comes from differences in sampling and in sampling period.

3. In some areas, such as Atlantic Canada and parts of Ontario, the samples are too small to get an accurate reading. (margins of error are unacceptably high)

4. The seat projections depend heavily on the methodology. I suspect the Hill and Knowlton one is using the last election in which, locally, the Dippers had a stronger candidate in one riding than they do now. As a result, they'll shift the seat to the NDP when there isn't any sign this time of the NDP being in contention in that seat.

Ah well, we'll know in a week.

Local race projections

Check out democraticspace.com see the vote projections based on current polling.

This guy has no particular axes to grind and while you can quibble, his methodology seems sound.

Interesting crap from Connies or Dippers

Someone is telling Craig Westcott of The Express tnhat Siobhan Coady will come in third in the St. John's South-Mount Pearl race.

That's odd since, if her campaigning is tanking as badly as Westcott described, people wouldn't need to get out and push it down as obviously as with the "third place" story. It's obviously a crock since publicly available polling shows a voting pattern very similar to the normal vote distributions, at least according to elections Canada. Con in front (45%) , Lib in second (35%) and the Dipper in third (18%).

The only place a story like that would come from is either of Coady's opponents. Hearn, who was seen campaigning recently door-to-door in one area of the riding, likely for the first time in his career, could be wanting to puff himself up a bit.

The story could also come from Peg Norman, who's campaign might be trying to pull a reverse Layton. That is she might be trying to claim that Coady is running behind to pull Liberal votes from people afraid of Harper and Hearn. Wow. If that's the case, talk about the lobster effect.

Someone is telling Westcott a story.

Unfortunately, he keeps repeating it.

[Note: take a look at democraticspace.com. That projection conforms to recent local polling, at least for the two St. John's seats.]

Connies: "our fear mongering's bigger"

Take a trip to see "balloon fear", one of the newest Connie ads.

It's a fearmongering piece about gun violence that includes the completely false claim that the homicide rate in Canada is up. It's actually down by 7% and has gone down just about every year since the early 1990s if memory serves.

The circus music is appropriate: the election has quickly descended into a fun-house mirror world in which reality (what Connies will really do) is deliberately distorted in order to mislead and frighten.

Word is the Connie team is busily looking around for a Canadian Willie Horton.

Who knows, the next Connie spot might feature Carla Homolka and Paul Bernardo.

Connie custodial management commitment evaporates: more facts

When the federal Conservatives voted to bring down the government last spring, they were also voting to hold up work underpinning Canada's claim to control subsea minerals and the water column to the edge of the continental shelf off Newfoundland and Labrador.

Loyola Hearn and Norm Doyle have voted three years in a row against work needed for Canada's claim to the subsea and waters beyond 200 miles.

Work on extending Canada's economic zone began in 2003 and funding each year since has been dedicated to conducted the underwater mapping which will be a crucial part of Canada's claim. Canada has until 2013 to complete its claim.

All that is just to confirm:

The Conservative Party platform commitment is to continue existing Government of Canada policy.

For those interested in tracking the changing Conservative commitment, check the Bond Papers archives for posts with the word "backpedal" or variations in the title.

The 100 door challenge

Check out Mark's 100 door challenge over at nottawa.blogspot.com.

The SES polls (which we are ALL guilty of citing to suit our daily needs) show that there was no upward movement in the Tory polls in the early days of policy announcements. Harper's momentum starts, quite clearly, a few days after Christmas, long after the "policy a day" type stuff was put to bed.

My challenge to any of you who buy into this reasoning - go knock on 100 doors in any riding and come back and tell me if you hear about the GST as often as you do about Chuck Guite. Try it for yourself and then get back to me.

Harper himself hasn't had to mention scandal, it has had enough legs on its own to permeate media coverage without his piling on.

But please - try the door-to-door thing, and tell me what you hear. Or, do a scan of all the Tory blog postings out there and tell me how many references to Harper's policies there are compared to how many references to "scandal".

I'll go Mark one better. Do an analysis of only one Connie blog. Or letters to the editor and posts to a CBC blog forum by the same guy.

That little sample speaks volumes for the overall campaign, and Mark's point.

Unfit to govern - Connies didn't give him everything to assess: economist

This should give everyone pause for thought:

OTTAWA (CP) - A prominent economist commissioned by the Conservatives to assess the financial soundness of their election platform says major items were omitted from the version he was given.

Paul Darby, deputy chief economist of the Conference Board of Canada, originally concluded that Stephen Harper's Conservative platform 'is affordable in each fiscal year from 2005-2006 through 2010-2011.'

Read a little further in the Canadian Press article, available from canoe.ca and you find this statement from the guy who originally endorse the Connie platform as fiscally sound:

"Those are two items that are not in what I was presented to analyze," he said. "I don't think, frankly, that those are in the platform, they're just under discussion.

"Those items were not costed, which leads me to believe that they're something that they're having under consideration that they're not committed to." [Emphasis added]

Globe: change for change sake, despite fear over country

Odd that the Globe editors today opt for change in the coming election despite acknowledging the country is better off today than when Liberals took power in 1993.

Odd they endorse change given this paragraph in the election editorial today:

It is hard to endorse him [Stephen Harper] and his party unreservedly. We worry about his seeming indifference to the need for a strong central government in a country so replete with runaway centrifugal forces. We worry about him teaming up with the Bloc Québécois to weaken the federal government's tax-raising capacity and its advocacy of national programs. We worry that he might have to strike retrograde compromises with social conservatives in the party's midst. We worry that he may prove heavy-handed in wielding the considerable powers of a prime minister.

To that might be added the very real fear that the Conservative Plan is actually not a plan at all. It is merely the tissue paper cover over the real plan that will only be seen once the conservatives are in power. Consider the number of twists and turns we have seen in the conservative "Plan" already, all designed to tweak the wording to match with what the right number of voters are looking for.

The vote is what counts; the policy comes after, and only after the Consdervatives have four years to do as they wish from a comofrtable majority position.

Once safely seated at 24 Sussex, likely with a strong majority by current polling numbers, the Conservatives will discover the country's finacial picture is now much bleaker than originally forecast.

An outside firm will audit the books and - predictably - declare the Liberals to be manipulaters - do the work.

Expect to see someone like Mr. Gourley of PriceClubWaterHouseCoopers, well known to Newfoundlanders and Labradorians for his mockery of accounting integrity two years ago, brought forward to twist and distort the numbers to make the situation look much worse than it appeared. To produce the report the government asked for saying what it wanted said.

And suddenly there will be no base in Goose bay. No troops for Trenton.

No money for child care.

Suddenly the focus will shift to the $30 billion in reallocations.

Call them program cuts, to be more accurate.

And the tax cuts will carry forward since they benefit the wealthy, in any event. The ghost of Mike harris and the mess of Ontario after his tenure is long forgotten, as is the mess left by the last Conservative government under Brian Mulroney.

The Globe editorialists try to erase their logical contradictions by trusting in the voters. That would be fine if party policy, such as the Conservative one, was not a moveable feast of pork and verbiage. A voter might well chose today based on one thing only to find that in truth, the policy actually had changed to something else. Stephen Harper cannot be held to account since he has said dofferent things at different times, all within the same election.

It's one thing to campaign from the left and govern from the right when you are basically somewhere in the middle anyways.

But when you campaign from the far left and you are really from the far right, perhaps the results won't be so pleasant.

Maybe, just maybe, the people who wish so desperately for a change, people who can recall the folly of Bob Rae and Mike Harris, these same people should be careful what they wish for.

Harper would cut $30 billion in programs and services

Go to the Conservative's fiscal plan.

Flip to the second last page.

Note the figures:

$6.8 billion in "re-allocation" and another $22.5 billion for "moderating spending" in government departments, agencies, and on grants and contributions.

That's almost $30 billion in program cuts that don't appear to be explained anywhere in the Conservative Plan.

Take a look at the Conservative Plan document itself and you might find a hint in the vague wording.

Economic development organizations like the Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency will maintain their current funding levels.

Hmmm.

Maintain current levels.

That sounds like "freeze at current levels".

No increases.

With inflation, that means that in five years time, ACOA would actually have less money to spend on diversifying the economy in Atlantic Canada than it has now.

That's a program cut.

That's also a significant kick to the many successful efforts at economic development that have taken place since ACOA was created under Brian Mulroney.

But hey, Steve's gotta find $30 freakin' billion to cut from somewhere.

Unfit to govern: Confusion in Connie Camp Continues

As if shagging up the costs of the plan wasn't bad enough.

As if the constantly changing the Party position on custodial management wasn't embarrassing.

Someone in the Connie bunker finally checked some facts on Canada's overseas spy agency.

The comment buried in a news release issued a week ago talked about "expanding" something called the Canadian Foreign Intelligence Agency.

The Bond Papers picked it up, reported it and a week later Canadian Press had more details:

There currently is no overseas spy agency to "expand".

Today's Conservative Plan refers to "creating" an overseas spy agency.

To paraphrase Bob Fife: if you don't know that Canada doesn't have an overseas spy agency when you make an announcement about expanding it, then that raises questions about your fitness to govern.

Unfit to govern: Harper dumps Hearn on custodial management

Contrary what Loyola Hearn wanted in 2004 and what he would have everyone believe even today, Stephen Harper is now pledging to "[e]xtend the two hundred mile limit to the edge of the Continental Shelf, the nose and tail of the Grand Banks, and the Flemish Cap in the North Atlantic and be prepared to exercise Canadian custodial management over this area."

That isn't what he said a mere five weeks ago.

At a news conference held at Petty Harbour, assisted by talk show maven and Conservative operative Sue (on the advance bus, no less), and flanked by incumbent Connies Norm Doyle and Loyola Hearn, Harper announced that a Conservative government would move immediately to announce custodial management of the Nose and Tail of the Grand Banks and fully take custodial management of these international waters within five years.

The Bond Papers has already documented the weakening of Harper's commitment over the course of a few weeks. Check the "Harper backpedals" posts.

Harper's announcement today is exactly the same as current government policy. The Government of Canada is already pursuing the legal means to lay claim to the continental shelf outside the 200 mile economic zone, in a process set out in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

The process began in 2003 when Canada finally signed the UNCLOS treaty, triggering an eight year timeline that will end in 2011.

The continued weakening of the Conservative commitment on custodial management, a major element in the local Connie candidate's campaign is a sign Loyola Hearn has no influence on Conservative Party fisheries policy.

Hearn's campaign brochure features the custodial management issue prominently:

Fisheries: Loyola has led the charge in Ottawa to rebuild our fisheries.

"Finally, it's agreed by political leaders that custodial management of fish stocks outside 200 miles by Canada is the only possible way we can save our rural population. We have to thank MP Loyola Hearn for his persistence and tenacity in having a supporting resolution recorded in the House of Commons. Without his dedication, it never would have passed."

Gus Etchegary, Respected Fisheries Advocate

Trevor Taylor, the former provincial fisheries minister described that motion very well in early 2004:

"The Hon. Trevor Taylor: Mr. Speaker, I rise today to congratulate Mr. Loyola Hearn, the Member of Parliament for St. John'’s West -

Some honourable members: Hear, hear!

Mr. Taylor: - on the successful passing of his private members'’ motion on custodial management in the House of Commons last evening. Motion 136 calls on the Government of Canada to immediately extend custodial management over the Nose and Tail of the Grand Banks and the Flemish Cap.

Mr. Hearn is to be commended for his efforts. He has worked tirelessly on the issue of foreign overfishing, including his dedicated work with the Standing Committee on Fisheries and Oceans."

Hmmm. We went from "immediately" to "will no hesitate" to "move towards" to now, not doing it at all except what is already happening.

To paraphrase Bob Fife: if you can't stick to a simple policy over the course of five weeks, that raises questions about your fitness to govern.

Omnifacts poll: Libs ahead in Atlantic

The number of undecided voters has risen during the campaign in Atlantic Canada, but the Liberals are ahead in three provinces and neck and neck with the Conservatives in New Brunswick. That's the result of a poll released today by Omnifacts Bristol.

Across Atlantic Canada, the results are (decideds only):

LPC 45%
CPC 37%
NDP 16%
OTH 02%

Undecideds are up 10 points to 27% from a survey completed by Omnifacts at the start of the campaign. The survey is concerned accurate to within 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.

In Newfoundland and Labrador, Liberals are at 48%, Conservatives at 40% and New Democrats at 12%. Pump those numbers into the Hill and Knowlton WunderPrediktor and the seat count stays the same as it is now. Factor in the undecideds, then bear in kind Liberals held 50% of the vote across the region at the start of the campaign and things look interesting. The election is far from over.

Paul Martin is considered the best choice for prime minister by 46% of decided respondents, with Stephen Harper at 32% and Jack Layton at 12%.

There is a gender gap in the PM picks. "Among decided female voters, 50% say Mr. Martin would make the best prime minister, compared to 42% of decided male voters. Only 29% of decided female voters support Mr. Harper in this category, compared to 35% of decided male voters."

A recent poll conducted for NTV by Telelink showed that in Newfoundland and Labrador, Liberals are at 46.4%, Conservatives at 40.5%, NDP at 11.4% and the Greens with 1.7%. Margin of error is 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. Undecided is at 39%.

Unfit to govern: Costing confusion on Connie Plan leaves media bewildered

Check Bob Fife's debrief on the Conservative newser and media briefing over at CTV.ca.

As Fife put it, the confusion was such today that: "[w]hen you can't explain that it adds up immediately, it raises questions about their [the Conservatives] whole ability to be able to govern."

The Conservatives will outspend the New Democrats in a combination of tax cuts and spending that adds up to $75 billion dollars. After much too and fro - and apparently some confuddled explanations - the figure was revised to $60 billion. In between the number hit $67 billion and then the Conservatives apparently announced more spending.

This comes from something called "reallocation", which apparently means there will be some sort of "slow down" in spending for Human Resources Canada and Industry Canada. There is also an expectation of growth in the economy resulting from tax cuts.

Decipher that doublespeak about slowing things down in at least two departments and you can see the words "program cuts". Something has to go to make room for other things. The question will be what is set to be killed off.

There was some initial confusion over the numbers. Before the formal announcement of the platform, journalists were given a first look at the costing in a media lockup.

From CTV.ca:

CTV's Ottawa bureau chief Robert Fife said it took puzzled Tory officials a long time to come to an agreement over the total net cost.

"It turns out that total promises for the Conservative party adds up to $75 billion. When there is reallocation we are told it is $60.7 billion," said Fife.

He added: "It took a combination of effort by everybody, the media and the Tory officials, to get to this $75 billion -- and then some subtraction and fooling around until we finally got to, what they say, is the accurate figure of $60.7 billion."

From the clip:

Fife: Well, they finally released their total platform document and they tried to give Tuesday costing figures but I have to say there was a lot of confusion, a lot of voodoo economics this morning as we tried to figure out where the Conservative platform was going in terms of cost.

For a long period of time they could not add up the figures.

Reporters as you know, we are not good at mathematics but one of my colleagues were saying that they were trying to do Liberal math compared to Conservative math and my friend Tom Clark says it is only math can you please add it up for us.

It turns out that their total promises for the Conservative Party adds up to $75 billion. When there is reallocation we are told it is $60.7 billion. But this took about an hour or so of discussions and adding up to get to this figure of about $67 billion. Total tax measures are about 44.9 billion. Other spending initiatives I don't want to go there because it was so confusing even Monte Solberg the conservative finance critic did not explain that ...

It is a slip-up. I mean, this is a very important part of the Conservative government's [sic] platform. They have done a very good job from day one, issue-driven, a policy a day, well thought out, generally well thought-out policies, populous policies, consumer-driven policies that seem to have struck a chord with Canadians.

When you put it together you want to be able to tell the Canadians look, this plan adds up. When you can't explain that it adds up immediately, it raises questions about their whole ability to be able to govern. And I mean, that is the questions that he was getting in the room today is we wanted to know, tell us how much it will cost. How does it add up when they weren't able to do that and then they started to give conflicting numbers, a lot of head-scratching which the journalists...

Ravi: What about Monte Solberg, was in in command of the facts there? He being the finance transit critic.

Fife: Monte Solberg is a good guy. I would not give him high grades for his performance today.

Release the Zeisman form

British Columbia Conservative spokesperson Colin Metcalfe [<-- requires RealPlayer] told CBC in British Columbia that Derek Zeisman filled out a form as part of the nomination process in which he was supposed to disclose relevant information.

If Zeisman failed to disclose, then the Conservatives can simply make the completed form public. Any sensitive information can be blanked out in a noticeable way. It's a fairly simple thing.

Of course Metcalfe couldn't explain how this guy could appear in court several times and no one noticed.

No one.

I am not making this up.

Then there's Zeisman, Day Three of Connie spin

The Vancouver Province is quoting Derek Zeisman as saying that the federal Conservative party knew all about the "administrative charges" he faces.

"Administrative charges". That's the new Conservative-speak word for allegedly trying to smuggle a Mercedes-Benz and 112 bottles of liquor across the border. The maximum penalty on conviction for these "administrative" infractions, which will be heard in British Columbia Provincial Court, could be a fine of up to $50, 000 and up to six months in jail.

Zeisman said: "The Conservative Party is aware of this [the charges]."

Now that's interesting. I was suspicious of the Conservative position from the get-go. It would be standard procedure for any political party, let alone the party of Law & Order [every night, on some channel and still on NBC] to do a background check on prospective candidates.

Heck I think these guys likely have their own CPIC account. That's the nationwide police criminal database.

(Left: Conservative Party background checker Ralph Wiggum, shortly before his retirement as Springfield chief of police.)

But to listen to Stephen Harper, he is surrounded by by people who didn't see fit to ask even the simplest of simple questions: are you bondable? Or maybe even: is there anything that might pop up in the media about you that might be a problem?

Harper didn't even ask the checkers those simple questions.

Compare that Jean Boyle-like shifting of responsibility to the way Prime Minister Paul Martin has handled the "military ad" thing. One pushes it away. One steps up to the plate. Hmmm.

Both Zeisman and Conservative Party campaign chair John Reynolds used almost identical phrases, referring to "administrative procedures" or "administrative charges" when talking about the matter.

That was when the Conservatives were standing behind their man fully.

The other thing you'll learn from the Province is that the former incumbent, Zeisman's old boss, won the seat by only 780 votes.

It was curious why the Conservatives didn't just forfeit the seat by having Zeisman resign for all his alleged and real failings. (Alleged = smuggling; real = failure to disclose relevant information]

Now we know:

They want every vote they can count on. This seat is a potential squeeker and they want to make sure it squeeks Conservative.

It all bobs to the surface

Call them floaters.

The stuff you'd like to go away but just won't sink. Thanks to Canadian Press and the story at canoe.ca for helping things bob to the surface.

Like Stephen Harper and Kyoto. He admitted in Halifax yesterday that under a Harper government, Kyoto: up the chimney faster than carbon dioxide emissions from a coke plant.

Like Jack Layton. Turns out that Jack had hernia surgery at a private clinic in the 1990s.

Like Stevie again and missile defence. Canadians said no. Harper would wait for a formal invitation before doing something. The wording suggests that the idea could be turned over to a free vote. Take a close look at the wording of the quote though and you'd think the option of turning the proposal over to a free vote in the Commons is the bit that hinges on it being in the national interest.

Incidentally, since when is a matter of national defence not in the national interest?

Sounds odd.

A bit like saying the provinces jurisdiction in international affairs must be recognized.

Or that Canada has had a handgun ban for decades and it's working just fine.

The Orchestra pit theory of political news coverage

This is as good a time as any to remind people of the Orchestra Pit Theory of political communications.

Credit for coming up with the little anecdote to illustrate the point goes to Roger Ailes, who these days heads up Fox News but in a previous life was a Republican Party communications whiz.

Basically, if there are two politicians on stage, one announces a cure for cancer and one falls into the orchestra pit, the guy in the pit will get the coverage.

There are a couple of versions of this going around. google and you'll find one. James Carville and Paul Begalla tell a slightly different version of it in their 2002 book Buck up, suck up and come back after you foul up.

As Carville and Begalla put it, news media love "to cover only four things in politics: scandals, gaffes, polls and attacks. Three of them are bad. So if you want to get coverage go on the offensive and stay there."

Of course, it should go without saying that it all depends on who you at aiming at in the offensive. Candidates normally aim at their opponent and as long as the attacks are factual, everything is just fine.

There will be people who bleat, complain and pontificate, but political campaigns are a winner-take-all affair.

After all, people have a right to see the sharp lines between candidates. Voters are choosing people to run our country, to make decisions that will affect each and every one of us on a daily basis. The choices aren't the same as which brand of toothpaste to buy. People deserve the chance to see the sharp lines between candidates and heaven knows there are sharp lines out there among all the contenders.

For some reason, this election has largely been about erasing the distinctions among the parties. Fundamentally, that's wrong.

[Fundamentally it's wrong for a crowd to sanctimoniously condemn attack ads and then run an entire campaign of their own around attacks.

But I digress.]

With all that in mind, have a look around and see if you can find genuine distinctions between candidates or among parties. There aren't as many as you'd think on major policy issues. In fact, it is almost scary the extent to which Conservatives are taking up New Democrat turf of supposedly detesting Americans, New Democrats want to get tough on crime and Liberals are the guys preaching fiscal responsibility, more cash for health care and people are pounding them.

Sharpening up the distinctions at election serves a useful purpose beyond giving political junkies something to blog about.

Planning a campaign that aims to differentiate a party from its rivals clears the political skulls. It sets a clear goal that the party can shoot for.

And voters would be able to hold political candidates and political parties genuinely accountable for things they would actually be able to do.

However, when campaigns are designed to blur distinctions, or push you to vote against something, everyone is getting shafted. We don't need proportional representation, or a reformed senate to fix elections.

We need political parties to actually stand for something different.

Consistently.

Harper now backs ACOA

Stephen Harper has decided that if he gets to 24 Sussex in a few weeks, he'll keep the Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency, an organization he vowed to get rid of just last year.

h/t to Andrew Coyne.

Harper shifts position, temporarily, on accused candidate

UPDATE BELOW

What a difference the light of day makes.

A difference, alright, just not much of a difference.

On Wednesday, the Conservatives were standing behind Derek Zeisman.

On Thursday, after the case of the candidate accused of smuggling gained national attention, Conservative boss Stephen Harper has announced that Zeisman will still carry the Conservative banner in the federal election but he just won't be able to sit in a Conservative caucus if elected, at least until the court case is resolved. [Corrected to reflect the details of the Canada Elections Act, as pointed out by a more-knowledgeable reader.]

Zeisman's bio has been removed from Conservative.ca, but he will apparently still be the official Conservative candidate on the ballot.

While he has not been convicted, Zeisman failed to disclose the charges against him to Harper and the federal Conservative Party didn't check Zeisman's credentials. When asked about it, Harper sloughed responsibility for the problem onto other people for failing to complete the appropriate checks, despite being the person ultimately responsible for approving candidates.

Compare Harper's position on his own responsibilities to the Conservative position on ministerial accountability. Harper made his initial comments in front of a Conservative backdrop featuring the word "accountability".

Update: The correction above notes that apparently the Conservatives can't punt the guy and block him from carrying the party banner. Fair enough.

Two things still apply:

1. This should have been caught by the approvals process. Harper's attempt to push the responsibility for this situation to the candidate and to unnamed officials of the party isn't good enough to meet the standards of accountability to be expected here.

2. Why was the first response to back the guy up and downplay the charges because they weren't under the Criminal Code?

Zeisman should have been strongly encouraged to resign from the ballot. Period.

Of course, given the guy's background, Harper can count on his vote if he gets elected, regardless of where in the House he sits.

Outside of caucus isn't much of a change.

Connie campaign chair sets the bar low

These comments from Connie campaign chair John Reynolds may give a sense of the high standards of integrity we can expect from a Conservative government.

Speaking of Derek Zeisman's charges for attempting to smuggle a car and 112 bottles of liquor across the border, Reynold's said that even if Zeisman were convicted "it's not a criminal offence."

So breaking the law is ok, as long as it isn't a violation of the Criminal Code.

Reynold's just gave us the sense of the ethical standards a Harper government would apply.

Talking about change isn't good enough, John.

Connies to grab more taxes from 200, 000 Newfoundlanders and Labradorians

According to David Cochrane of CBC Radio news, the Conservatives plans to raise taxes and lower basic personal exemptions will see more than 200, 000 Newfoundland and Labradorians will be seeing tax increases this year. That's two thirds of the province's workforce, if memory serves

The Conservatives will reverse Liberal tax cuts that took affect this year for those in the lowest income brackets.

Local Conservative candidates Norm Doyle and Loyola Hearn voted against a tax cut last year and will now support a tax increase. They claim a cut to the GST is just as good or better.

The Harper GST cut will shave a maximum of two cents off a large double double cup of coffee. It would take tens of thousands of cups of coffee annually to save the $400 the Conservatives claimed an average family would save from the cut.

Great visuals, Steve

Yep, right there in front of a big backdrop with the word "Accountability" plastered on it:

Stephen Harper, defending the Conservatives for running as a candidate someone who is charged with smuggling a Mercedes and a huge quantity of liquor across the border, by saying "I depend on other people to do stuff like background checks for me."

The last thing a leader does is sluff the blame onto someone else, especially when it's your signature at the bottom of the candidate's nomination paperwork, Steve.

Best line from accused smuggler and Connie candidate Derek Zeisman's official bio:

"In his capacity as a foreign service officer with the Canadian Diplomatic Corps, Derek served as a policy analyst on issues relating to the Canadian-US. border."

Zeisman contributed an essay somewhere along the line on what he would do as prime minister. Among his proposals:

- abolish the Charter of Rights and Freedoms - "While, in theory, a liberal and democratic concept, the Charter actually flies in the face of every democratic virtue cherished by Canadians.";

- abolish all taxes on corporations, industries and business;

- implement a user-pay approach to infrastructure spending;

- "explore" a North American monetary union (single currency);

- annex the Turks and Caicos (what is it with Connies and Caribbean islands?)

- "run-off" elections, involving two voting days for each of the 308 seats in the Commons;

- a senate appointed by provincial premiers, based on party standings in the provincial legislature at the time of appointment.

Meanwhile, Berk doesn't have anything on this story that led CTV's nation news Wednesday night. Nope. He's leading with a story that Susan Murray said the word "bullshit" live on air during an interview...and oh yes...Angelina Jolie is having Brad's baby.

Bourque Newswatch: Bigger. Bolder. Better.

Thanks for the free air time

How much news time has been devoted to the Liberal Party's most recent television commercials?

Measure it in hours.

Bourque Berk teed off on the Liberal's John Duffy and praised Mike Duffy for standing up to the Liberals before a controversial spot went to air. Then the Puffster aired the thing, just like CBC did on national radio news today.

Smart communications people know how to multiply the impact of their efforts by picking up tons of free/earned media. Nothing like dropping an ad and then pulling it back to stir a controversy and get to talk even more about the veracity of the ad campaign that just got covered, for free, as part of the news.

Thanks for the free air time ladies and gentlemen.

And thanks, Berk. Either you are the second most successful Liberal mole in history or you are a lot less media savvy than you claim.

and to that certain long-time Liberal Eastern mole in the Connie camp:

John has a long moustache.

The chair is against the door.

You know what to do next.

*Wink* *Wink*

[Note: From Andrew's link below, I realised he didn't get it that I was referring to the Liberal mole running part of the Connie campaign. He is likely the most successful one in history, having served longer than the Cambridge ring served the Moscow cause. Hence, the clarified reference to the Liberal mole. We don't need an extra click on the conference calls. Our mole has his own dial-in code.]

Update:

Thanks for the traffic, Andrew Coyne.

Of course, it's a given that Conservative and New Democrat supporters will think the entire Liberal ad campaign at this point is "desperate" or "false" or whatever else.

Sorry to disappoint you, my Con and Dipper friends, but you aren't the target audience.

Think about it this way.

Front page of the Globe today: Full colour panels of the spots, other than the military one, all featuring great quotes. Front page. Starting above the fold. Across the country.

Then there's Jason Kenney's newser today in which he talks about "the most vicious, baseless attack ad that our politics has ever seen."

I guess Kenney's hyperbole would be creditable were it not for the genuinely baseless and debased attacks mounted by the Conservatives against Jean Chretien in 1993 and the Harper attack on Paul Martin as a child molester from last year. The Conservatives withdrew the Chretien smear "eventually" as CTV reports and last time I checked, the Conservatives spent a lot of time deciding whether or not the child molester thing was good or bad. Even Mr. Harper himself seemed to stand behind it.

Then, of course, there's the orchestrated campaign to label Belinda Stronach a "whore".

Or, the entire Conservative campaign this time around built around a deliberate misrepresentation of the Gomery Report.

Compare that to what happened in the last 24 hours or so.

The real problem here might be that, with the exception of the military spot, the rest are all genuine Stephen Harper quotes. If they weren't likely to have an effect, the entire Conservative election machine wouldn't be spewing venom and spittle over them.

In 1993, the public rejected the Conservatives genuinely desperate efforts to cling to power. They didn't need to be told what to think.

Just relax guys and take a breath: We'll know in a couple of days whether or not the ads worked.

Harper's CIA: CP and the Sun catch up

From the Toronto Sun today, a story on the Harper plan for a Canadian overseas spy agency, covered here days ago.

Bond Papers readers heard all about it last Friday.

Canadian Press missed a key point though: rather than expand an existing service as the Harper backgrounder stated, a Conservative government would have to create one.

They also never asked why the whole issue was buried at the tail end of a backgrounder to a media event largely devoted to exploiting the gun violence in Toronto.

Connies adrift on Atlantic - updated

Check out the Conservative television spot aimed at what they label as "Atlantic".

Then listen to the fake presenter talking about Stephen Harper's connections to the "Martimes", as if the two were the same thing. Then there's a switch by Harper to talking about Atlantic Canadians. Mixing the two is a habit for Canadians not familiar with the places east of Cornwall, Ontario. Maritimes is a term that predates Confederation in 1949.

Then the guy who talked about a culture of dependence in Atlantic spouts a new message: a positive one about wanting to help Atlantic Canadians.

or was it Maritimers?

To put this in perspective for people not from Atlantic Canada, lumping Newfoundlanders and Labradorians in with people from Nova Scotia is like saying that everything from the Ontario border to British Columbia is "the West": a big, homogeneous mass without specific issues and different cultures within each province.

It's like listening to people not from Atlantic Canada talking about driving through all four provinces in a day.

Take a map of Atlantic Canada.

Place the easternmost tip, at St. John's, on the Ontario-Manitoba border.

Where does the western tip (Edmundston, New Brunswick) wind up?

Vancouver.

If you get the geography or the names wrong, odds are good you don't fundamentally appreciate very much else, either.

Update:

A sharp-reader took issue with my distance experiement.

Fair enough.

The experiment described above was one used some time ago to impress upon people the size of Atlantic Canada. It's a long-standing local joke the number of people who think they can drive around easily, as I said. Sort of like a European friend of mine who, on coming to Canada, figured we could pop down on the weekend to California. By car. When you have never lived more that 150 miles from the ocean, big is a concept that is a little hard to fathom.

So, I hauled out the atlas and worked it out. East-West the distance goes from the Man/On border to just about Calgary, give or take a bit. It's the north-south distance from the northern tip of Labrador to Cape Sable that stretched on a map far enough to hit Vancouver, give a take a few miles.

The point of the exercise?

Atlantic Canada is a physically large place and within that there are differences of culture, geography and everything else as well as four distinct provinces. It's just as diverse as anywhere else in Canada.

If you go back to the Harper spot, let's take a look at the messages. Harper is asked about his deep roots in "the Maritimes". He talks about how his father had to leave to find opportunity elsewhere, like so many from his generation.

Then he bridges out to a statement that he believes the region should have control of its own resources and that "made in Ottawa solutions are not the answer".

To put it bluntly, this little spot is designed to do two things. First of all, the Conservatives are trying to get past the culture of defeat comment that has dogged Harper since he first made it. He wanted to leave the impression he was fully aware of the region through his father's family. Second of all, the spot is designed to deal with what is perceived to be a common regional attitude.

Unfortunately, what we have here is a caricature - a perception of Atlantic Canada or the Maritimes being the same. And the solution he talks about is an equally simplistic caricature. The "region", actually each of the four provinces, controls its own resources already. There are no "made-in Ottawa" solutions.

At no point, does Harper mention anything specific that a Conservative government might do to deal with this "problem".

Immediately above the "Atlantic" spot on the CPC website is one targeted specifically at British Columbia. That's a telling part of the Conservative approach in this spot - four provinces get lumped together as being somehow as homogeneous in attitudes and opinions as British Columbia. Atlantic Canadian or Maritimer is the identity for local people in the same way that people from the other coast would call themselves British Columbians.

But here's the thing: the sense of identity implicit in the spot is wrong. It comes from people who are not from here. It's a convenient way to describe people in the same wrong-headed way as we sometimes see all people west of described as "westerners" or, indeed of describing all people in the centre of the country as Ontarians.

However, those convenient labels miss so much that is important.

Like I said, get the name wrong and you are likely to get a lot more wrong as well.

Poll-er magic

Take a look at results from an NTV/Telelink poll in Newfoundland and Labrador and the national race looks like a re-run of the same results from last time.

Provincially, Liberals are at 46.4%, Conservatives at 40.5%, NDP at 11.4% and the Greens with 1.7%. Margin of error is 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. Undecided is at 39%.

Flip those numbers through the Hill and Knowlton predictor and the seats stay the same as they are now, with five Liberals and two Conservatives.

On a riding by riding basis, the results are harder to assess, since the margin of error climbs to a little over 8%.

Allowing for that margin of error though, the three seats on the Avalon peninsula are all still in play. In the two seats on the northeast, both Conservative incumbents are not so far ahead that they can be comfortable. In Avalon, where incumbent Liberal John Efford is not running, NTV is reporting the Conservative slightly ahead of Liberal Bill Morrow .

The choice between the past and the future

Elections are about choices.

At no time in recent history have the choices for voters in St. John's South-Mount Pearl and St. John's East as clear as they are in this election.

The two ridings embody not only the current booming oil economy in Newfoundland and Labrador, but also the face of the modern province and its people.

The days of voting for your grandfather's political choice have long been dead across this province, but nowhere more than in the northeast Avalon. True, the ridings, in their old configuration have been Tory (and lately Conservative) almost continuously since Confederation (1949).

The last federal election proved just exactly how much times have changed.

If one looks at Elections Canada vote transpostions, one can see that in the current configuration, the majority of voters in the ridings have traditionally voted Progressive Conservative.

Loyola Hearn believes he had a rough ride last time because public servants were upset with Danny Williams. Nonsense. Mr. Hearn lost 15% of his core vote last time because local Progressive Conservatives could not bring themselves to vote for Stephen Harper and, in Mr. Hearn's case the man who helped Mr. Harper erase the Progressive Conservative Party and its values from the national landscape.

As if that were not enough, earlier this year Mr. Hearn's slavish devotion to his new leader placed him in the most hideous of predicaments. Having lambasted John Efford for supposedly putting Party before province, Mr. Hearn did exactly the same thing. Local Progressive Conservatives, genuine centre-right or even centre-left in their political beliefs, openly expressed their disapproval.

Nowhere is this more evident than in the Hearn campaign and that of his Conservative partner, Norm Doyle. They are desperately trying to tell us that all is well in the local federal Conservative campaigns. They proudly display the pictures and print the quotes from a handful of provincial politicians. Some of the quotes are so out of whack with reality as to be laughable and yet they are presented with the straightest of straight faces. No matter how much they repeat the message, telling us that it is so does not make it so.

There is no small irony either that Mr. Hearn, in particular has taken to presenting himself as someone who will fight for Newfoundland and Labrador. John Efford used to talk of himself like that too. There is no surprise since, despite their being in different political parties, both men are as alike as alike can be. They are relentlessly partisan, were elected to the provincial legislature at the same point in history and, as their public pronouncements would show, devoted to the ideas that were in vogue 20 years ago.

They talk of grievances that are long since past. Their solutions are also from the past. Joint management of the fishery? Sharing decisions about fisheries between two sets of politicians may have made sense when Loyola Hearn first sat in the House of Assembly a quarter century ago. But the fishery of tomorrow cannot be built by continuing to do exactly what we have done in the past, time and again, without success.

Custodial management? That too is an artifact from a bygone era. Ownership of resources? That battle was fought - and won - when both Hearn and Doyle sat in Brian Peckford's cabinet. What else do Hearn and Doyle talk about besides old ideas? Precious little, save what is in the current Harper playbook.

Compare that to the two Liberal candidates or the two New Democrats in the northeast Avalon. In these four we have men and women who represent a new generation of political leaders. Any of them would be creditable members of the national parliament. Take Hearn and Doyle from the choices and one is left in a quandary.

Sadly, not all can make it. What works against both Mike Keough and Peg Norman is not the virtue of their party platforms or their personal qualities and qualifications. What works against them as a political choice is that their party cannot form a government. Their leader, Jack Layton, has set his sights on being the third party in the Commons. Had the New Democrat campaign aimed higher, then voters in the northeast Avalon would have a harder choice.

Put Hearn and Doyle back into the picture and the choice sharpens. Put Hearn and Doyle back and we see the approaches to politics and our society that have been tried and tried and failed and failed.

Put Hearn and Doyle back in the picture and we see the choice between what we have experienced and to which we do not wish to return and the chance to do something different.

We have the choice between past and future.

Siobhan Coady and Paul Antle represent the modern Newfoundland and Labrador. They are both accomplished in their professions. Both own businesses, Antle in environmental services and Coady in both the fishery and in genetic research. They have extensive volunteer backgrounds and involvement in local and national conservation, community service and business organizations. They have represented our province and our country both nationally and internationally; Antle as a delegate to the Johannesberg environmental conference and Coady as chair of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.

They both value financial responsibility balanced with social responsibility - the hallmarks of the majority of voters in St. John's East and St. John's South-Mount Pearl. They do not say things merely because words can be convenient disguises. They value diversity of opinion and people. They are not urban or rural, townie or baymen - those are labels that simply don't apply anymore. They are as comfortable in Ottawa and Toronto, New York and London as they are in Pouch Cove and Mount Pearl.

Neither shrinks from a challenge.

Coady, in particular, worked tirelessly last year on the offshore deal. Unlike some who attended no meetings that mattered, Coady met the Prime Minister or spoke with him on several occasions including before his visit here in June 2004. She had no difficulty making her position plain and in persuading the Prime Minister to state his position on the offshore unequivocally.

Staunch Hearn and Doyle supporters will not vary their vote, most likely. To the staunch Liberals or the New Democrats, the choice is easy.

But to the 15% or more of progressives who abandoned Mr. Hearn, Mr. Doyle and their leader, there is a choice. There is a choice that represents substantive local change that can, in turn produce substantive national change. To make that work, local Progressive Conservatives who left Hearn and Doyle, the local voters who turned their backs on the past once can take another step by voting for candidates who, personally, are closer to them in outlook and values than any of the others.

The challenge the province faces today is how to build on what we have. The challenge we face is the challenge of change. That challenge can only be met with fresh eyes and an approach that does not look to shopworn approaches and words that were all the rage in the 1970s and 1980s. That challenge can only be met by individuals who have shown they can work together with people from different backgrounds and different ways of doing things.

On January 23rd, we voters in the northeast Avalon must turn our face toward the future and make a choice.

From that perspective, voters in St. John's South-Mount Pearl and St. John's East can make their choice confidently.

Harper health pledge already exists

Remember Stephen Harper's pledge to let people travel to other province's to get health care?

He called it the Patient Wait Times Guarantee.

It already exists.

It's already part of the publicly funded health care system in Canada.

Has been for decades.

That's because the Canada Health Act provides for accessibility to the system at public expense, irrespective of where one is located. If a service isn't available in your area or if you have to go elsewhere to get treatment based on medical advice, then the provincial health care plan has to cover the costs of the medical services.

Harper can implement his plan right away because it already exists.

What Harper isn't talking about is defraying the cost of travel and accommodations.

That system already exists, too, at least in some provinces. The Government of Newfoundland and Labrador announced changes to its program today, which covers the costs of sending people outside the province for medical care. It covers not only procedures that just aren't available. It also covers patients who can't get timely access to care, as determined by their medical practitioners.

The government release is actually a little misleading when it talks about the program starting in 1998. Medical transportation assistance in Newfoundland and Labrador actually dates from the start of the medicare system. It is provided based on the accessibility provisions of the Canada Health Act.

The old program was canceled in 1997 by the Tobin government only to be replaced the next year with a similar program - only major difference is that it went from being fully government funded to being one where the patient and government split the costs.

Medical travel is based on doctor's advice for each patient.

The policy decision is made by the provincial government - the province decides how to spend the cash.

The upshot of it all?

Harper's wait times guarantee is already in place. And for anyone who isn't getting financial assistance to help width travel costs?

Steve doesn't speak about that at all.

Funny + True = Mercer

Rick Mercer's contribution to the Harper machine's election would be even funnier if these people hadn't actually said those things, not in jest but in all seriousness.

Rick does a great service to Canadians by reminding us all of the sorts of people who Stephen Harper is leading.

A tip of the salt n' pepper to Mark.

Martin wins: NLSDU judges

Judges at a fundraiser for the Newfoundland and Labrador Speech and Debate Union (NLSDU) awarded the debate tonight to Paul Martin.

Steve Harper and Gilles Duceppe tied for first in the opinion of judge Liam O'Brien.

Defining moments for your humble e-scribbler and NLSDU judge:

- Paul Martin pledges to remove the notwithstanding clause from the Constitution; Harper wants to keep it just as it, for some unspecified reason.

- Harper scored the only factual errors, claiming that Canada has had a handgun ban for decades and that provinces have jurisdiction in international affairs.

- Harper has a hard time explaining his own tax plan.

- Jack Layton alternates between running for third place with the third option mantra and channelling Lilo and Stitch: no one gets left behind or forgotten.

- Gilles Duceppe keeps pushing what will prove to be a fourth rate book by a fourth rate scribbler, namely Normand Lester.

Hearn backs NAFO and American fishermen

Anti- NAFO crusader Gus Etchegary might want to reconsider his endorsement of Loyola Hearn.

Gus may have missed Hearn's worry that the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization would fold when Americans didn't get their fair share of some fish species.

As VOCM reported in February last year:

Americans may leave NAFO

The opposition fisheries critic says the United States is unhappy with NAFO and may pull out. Loyola Hearn, the MP for St. JohnÂ’s South-Mount Pearl, says he met with a delegation from the US yesterday. He says the Americans are not happy with their fish quota, especially yellow tail flounder, and he says they have a legitimate argument. Hearn says the Americans pay 20 per cent of the costs of NAFO, but get only a fraction of the quota. Hearn sys the Americans have been CanadaÂ’s closest ally in the North Atlantic Fisheries Organization.

or as The Telegram put it two days later:

U.S. ready to leave NAFO: Hearn

The Conservative fisheries critic says the United States is unhappy with NAFO and may pull out.

Tory MP Loyola Hearn says he met with a delegation from the U.S. Tuesday.

He says the Americans are not happy with their fish quota, especially yellow tail flounder - and he says they have a legitimate argument.

Hearn says the Americans have been Canada's closest ally in the international regulatory body.

Of course, the Yanks didn't leave.

But I am wondering why Gus supports Hearn, who supports NAFO when Gus keeps arguing NAFO is the root of all fisheries evil and that foreigners should be driven from the Grand Banks.

Here's one of Etchegary's more temperate remarks:

"I was 25 years with both organizations [NAFO and its predecessor] as a commissioner, representing the industry, and year after year we came out of those annual meetings reporting to the powers that be that these were useless organizations. Both organizations legitimized overfishing practices and killed out fishery. It's as simple as that," he charges. [Emphasis added]

Now reconcile all that with this statement from Hearn's website:

As stated by respected fisheries advocate, Gus Etchegary, "Finally its agreed by political leaders that Custodial Management of fish stocks outside 200 miles by Canada is the only possible way we can save our rural population. We have to thank MP Loyola Hearn for his persistence and tenacity in having a supporting resolution recorded in the House of Commons. Without his dedication it would never have passed."

Gus thinks having Canada take over fisheries management outside the 200 mile limit by illegal means is good; NAFO is bad. Hearn was fighting to save the same NAFO that Gus thought was a joke.

Meanwhile, Hearn's boss, Stephen Harper is backsliding on his promises to Hearn, Etchegary and the people of Newfoundland and Labrador to extend custodial management.

Custodial management is a legal nonsense, of course, but if these three guys - Hearn, Harper and Ethcegary - want to push for it, the least they could do is actually agree among themselves.

Harper backpedals; O'Brien buys a tractor to shove(l) harder

Note: Scroll to the bottom to get to the new bit.

As predicted here a couple of days ago, loyal local Connie Liam O'Brien is defending his leader's backpeddling on custodial management insisting that Harper's Connies are indeed committed to taking custodial management of the Grand Banks.

Ok. Let's look at O'Brien's claims and then let's look at the evidence:

First, let's take the prediction...

**Prediction:

Conservative supporters will dismiss this as irrelevant, insisting Harper is still committed to the concept of protecting fisheries even if he has no commitment actually to do anything any more.

Some Harper loyalists will insist that saying you will do something and saying you'd consider doing something are the same thing.**

Then O'Brien writes:

"Stephen Harper's Conservatives have been committed to taking custodial management over the stocks on the Nose & Tail of the Grand Banks and the Flemish Cap for a long time now. Few statements make this clearer than the Party's 2005 Official Policy Document:

"...We will not hesitate to take custodial management of the stocks on the Nose and Tail of the Grand Banks and the Flemish cap.... " (Article 99 [ii]) [Emphasis added in O'Brien's original]

This [the Conservative commitment to custodial management] was re-enforced time and again in subsequent releases and visits to NL [sic]. Ed tried his best to read all sorts of things into the fact that the news releases aren't carbon copies of one another. He ignores the CPC's own black and white committed-to policy, the CPC's call for emegency debates [sic] on this very issue in the House, and the fact that this policy is indeed supported by just about everybody -- Liberals, NDPers, Tories, Unions, Industry etc..."

Then in classic Liam fashion he shifts to a different topic.

Let's stick with O'Brien and wipe that up first.

Liam is right. The Conservative statement in the policy manual from last spring, as the party was getting ready for what it thought was an election the, was absolutely unequivocal. "We will not hesitate..."

But if that is the policy, then why isn't it consistently repeated over and over again, as Liam insists it has been in the past?

When the wording of a political commitment changes it usually means the commitment has changed and one can't get any clearer than the Harper changes.

March 2005: "We will not hesitate to take custodial management"

December 2005: We will hesitate for five years; custodial management within five years in a media interview.

As he is quoted by CBC, it would be a top priority, occurring within five years. *Using the fishing village of Petty Harbour as a backdrop, Harper said the Conservatives would make custodial management happen during their first term in office.

"My hope would be that once we start to move in this direction the international community will come to the table and resolve the issue," he said. "It is a reasonable time frame."*

December 2005 news release (at the same event; not updated since): Vague - "Moving towards extending the 200-mile limit to the edge of the Continental Shelf, the nose and tail of the Grand Banks, and the Flemish Cap in the North Atlantic and exercising Canadian custodial management over this area". Like saying "in the fullness of time", "eventually" or "when we get around to it."

January 2006: Letter to Danny Williams. "A Conservative government would support extending custodial management of the Continental Shelf beyond the 200 mile limit, to the nose and tail of the Grand Banks and the Flemish Cap in the North Atlantic."

In the space of a year, we have gone from a firm Conservative commitment to custodial management expressed in clear language, through the equivocation of a public statement and a news release issued the same day saying different things through now to the point where what once will occur is something a Conservative government would support...

but what?

take no action on?

like it if someone else did it for them?

Liam.

Boobalah.

It's really simple.

Say what you mean and mean what you say.

Res ipsa loquitur. The facts speak for themselves.

Or do they not teach newbie lawyers anymore the basic idea that things are what they are?

Thing 1: Stephen Harper is backpeddling on custodial management.

Thing 2: Liam O'Brien insists that something that is changed substantially is still the same.

As predicted.

So the backpeddling and the shifts of language now are all the more strange, Liam, in light of the strong statements before and all the motions and posturing. You haven't undermined the argument I made; you reinforced it by pointing to the strength of the old Harper commitment.

The contrast between Harper the "Clear" and Harper the "Kinda When We Can" is so dramatic now as to be unmistakable.

Anyone can see it.

Now we just have to explain why Steve Harper is backpeddling.

Update: A lengthy addendum to his original post has appeared over at RGL. Liam uses smaller typeface which means that his explanation of his explanation of the consistency of the inconsistency is actually longer than the original explanation of the consistency where there is inconsistency.

Confuddled?

Evidently so is Liam. He tried everything from flat-out denials, to saying I just plucked out a bullet point, to promising more will follow at some point in the future.

But just to save Liam any further wriggling, here's a sample of what the three statements might have read if, and that's a big if, the Conservatives weren't backing away from custodial management.

March 2005: "We will not hesitate to take custodial management..."

December 2005 (speaking notes and news release): As stated in our policy manual, we will not hesitate to take custodial management of the nose and tail of the Grand Banks. Therefore, I am announcing today that a Conservative government will extend custodial management within its first term in office...

January 2005: As you are aware, I committed that a Conservative government will extend custodial management in its first term...

See?

That's consistent.

That's what a leader would say if he were genuinely committed to a course of action or a policy.

Compare that to "will", then "move towards", then "would support".

In Spain, they are noticing the difference as we speak.

Liam better hope more people who he is counting on to support his team don't notice what everyone else can see.

Upperdate: Three - count 'em - three posts and Liam is still boashing his head against the simple point that Mr. Harper is no longer as firmly behind custodial management as his party was less than a year ago. Actually it's one long post and two longer and then longer still add-ons, but we'll call 'em three.

He tries everything, from branding me as a Liberal (quelle surprise!) to saying I don't support custodial management (It's a legal crock) to a bunch of other stuff that has nothing to do with the point. He even resorts to repeating the lengthy quotes he quoted before and then quotes and quotes and quote some more, until as Dr. Seuss would add, the quotes pushed Liam out the door.

I have figured out a couple of things about Liam over time. One of them is that the longer his posts, the less he actually has to say. The other thing, related to that, is that the longer his posts, the more likely it is you have him skewered. The other other thing to learn is that the more Liam goes off topic, the closer to the truth you come.

That must be why he hates the term Reflexive Grit Loather so much.

So now we know:

Stephen Harper is backing away from his support for custodial management.

Voting records

Since Loyola Hearn is especially proud of the number of times he has risen to speak in the commons, it is useful heading over to howdtheyvote.ca.

On dissentions, that is voting against the party line, Loyola did so only once, on second reading of a private member's bill on student loans. Every other time he followed his leader, including in the plans to bring down the government last spring and thereby scuttle the offshore deal in favour of Stephen Harper's equalization reform gambit.

Norm Doyle joined Loyola on that student loan vote, but also voted against his party on second reading of a private member's bill to prohibit replacement workers during labour disputes. There's another dissention by Doyle, but the site doesn't actually list it. Loyola and Norm both voted to bring down the government last spring, standing cheek by jowl with their leader.

Scott Simms voted against the party line 17 times since being elected, a clear indication of both the flexibility of his party and his own independent-minded nature. That gave him a 13 place rank among parliamentarians for dissenting votes.

Bill Matthews voted against the party line 13 times for 24th place.

Gerry Byrne bucked the party seven times, for 57th place.

The late Lawrence O'Brien's stats aren't there.

Now some people will point to these figures and claim that there is a problem when someone votes against his or her party.

Others would look at it and says the dissentions speak volumes about the tolerance in the party for different views. In the top 57 dissenters, the majority are Liberals.

But flip to the bottom of the charts - there you will find cabinet ministers, who obviously have to support the government, and almost the entire Conservative and Bloc caucuses.

It gives some food for thought.

Memo to Bourque

Before Bourque posts another piece of tripe about Normand Lester's book and Pierre Pettigrew, the old boy might want to have a look at Paul Wells' observations.

"They [Conservatives and New Democrats jumping on the Lester bandwagon] should know, as apparently they don't yet, that Lester is a vile, scuttling anglophobe with a demonstrated history of ignoring inconvenient facts, getting others flat wrong, and waving around a dusty, ancient and barely-rewritten clip file as if it were the Dead Sea Scrolls.

...

Anyone willing to hop into bed with the likes of Normand Lester has no moral claim to lead this country or to hold the balance of power in a minority Parliament. Is that clear enough?"

Crystal clear, Paul.

Connie reality check on finances

An assessment produced by CBC shows that the Conservative campaign promises will cost taxpayers on the order of $66 billion over the next five years.

That puts them in second place behind the New Democrats who have promised $71 billion in spending.

The Liberal platform was costed at $59.4 billion while the Bloc's platform would cost $55 billion over three years.

Note that all parties have platforms that exceed the projected federal surplus up to the year 2011. The November 19 mini-budget put that figure at $55 million.

Based on that projection, and looking at only the three national parties, Canada will overspend by:

- $16 billion under the New Democrats.
- $12 billion under the Conservatives.
- $ 6 billion under the Liberals.

Genuine fiscal Conservatives must be in a tizzy trying to figure out how to vote. Their traditional voice in the Conservatives turns out to be willing to promise New Democrat-style deficit levels in order to gain power.

Logically, that leads us to one of two conclusions:

Either fiscal conservatives will flock to the Liberals since the Conservatives appear to have lost their financial marbles.

or.

They'll vote Conservative knowing full well the party won't live up to most of the promises it has made.

Odds are good, though, they'll live up to one little plan they tried to keep under wraps:

Lower income Canadians will face a tax increase under the Conservatives.

Norm Doyle: No socon silence in Newfoundland and Labrador

With a tip of the festive hat to Mark at nottawa, let's flip over to this story from the Halifax Herald.

A couple of Connie contenders there have been muzzled by their national party over the issue of equal marriage.

**"We'’ve been told by Ottawa that we don'’t talk about that," Paula Henderson told The Chronicle Herald on Thursday. "That'’s a dropped subject."

Ms. Henderson is a campaign volunteer for Rakesh Khosla, the Tory running against Fisheries Minister Geoff Regan in Halifax West.

Paul Francis, the Conservative candidate for Sackville-Eastern Shore, also attended the meeting and he too refused to comment.

"We'’re actually referring all inquiries on that meeting to (Tory spokesman) Rob Batherson," said Jeff Alexander, communications director for Mr. Francis.**

Before this all blew up as an election issue, St. John's East Connie candidate Norm Doyle was free to chime right in and back his leader's plans to turn back the clock in Canada. He openly spoke for his social conservative (socon) agenda, an agenda that according to some reports is causing him to bleed support among younger Progressive Conservatives.

When the legislation was being debated in the Commons, Doyle said:

"[Equal marriage] is a step in the wrong direction for our society."

"At the height of this debate, a column in The National Post by Barbara Kay recently caught my eye. The headline on the column reads, "“It's time to think about the children"”. Ms. Kay made this point:

Canadian researchers have made no effort to harvest the views of those who have the most invested in the gay marriage debate--children. Nobody has asked children if they "“strongly prefer, strongly reject or don't care"” whether they have: a single mom, single dad, mother and father, two moms or two dads.

She says that children are, by nature, "“social conservatives"” and will by nature respond that they prefer a mom and a dad. She concludes by saying:

Canada is one of only three places on Earth poised to endorse the use of children as social guinea pigs without their consent. And all because our intellectual and political elites "“haven't ever really thought about it."”

Ms. Kay makes a good and valid point. Researchers or government, nobody knows what the outcome of this reckless piece of social engineering will lead to.** [Emphasis added]

Yep.

Doyle thinks equal marriage is a "reckless piece of social engineering."

Loyola Hearn didn't say much during the debate on this crucial issue, but he voted the socon party line nonetheless.

I wonder if a reporter stuck a microphone in either of these guys' faces, what would the reply be?

Hmmmm.

Liam caves on child care.

Well sort of.

He caves, alright, but the dear old fellow will:

1. insist there was no change; and
2. this is the same position as the one he took all along.

I can see him in court now:

"Yes, M'Lud, while the forensic evidence clearly shows my client was in three houses illegally and stole a quality of jewelry in excess of $5, 000 value, he insists that in fact he is a small pink pussycat and even if he isn't a small pink pussycat, my client insists he was at home with his wife at the time the crimes were committed.

Yes, M'Lud, I acknowledge that his wife has given evidence that she was in fact at bingo that night and yes, I am aware of the three witnesses who were at home at the time and took photographs of my client in their homes at the time alleged holding the jewelry and climbing out a window, but in fact M'Lud, the price of tea in China is extremely high right now and my client is victim of a massive, evil liberal conspiracy of which you, M'Lud, are a part, and...

Look over there!

A purple dinosaur."

Distraction, obfuscation, even flat-out denials don't change the facts - on child care, Liam O'Brien is now advocating that Stephen Harper's:

"focus should remain on maximizing the size of the transfer of funding to parents and let them decide how to spend their money in order to care for their children."

To see how dramatic a shift this is, understand that initially O'Brien insisted that $2.30 cents a day gave choice in child care. That's right. My wife and I could keep one of us at home to raise our child on $2.30 a day. Now, according to Liam, Harper needs to maximize that amount.

This is the guy who quoted American right-wing political lobbyists and presented them as child care experts to bolster his case that $2.30 a day gave choice in child care.

This is the guy who howled when I pointed out, as a parent, that $2.30 was choice, my foot.

In his verbose reply, he said this:

"Ed, you fail to offer a very simple answer: if your problem is with the amount of funding offered, why aren't you advocating a system that does indeed put fund in the hands of parents?"

Of course, it wasn't my plan to fix. I have another idea I think is better.

But after a month, Liam has seen the error of his ways.

Or maybe, just maybe, Liam realized that all his rantings against the non-existent "nanny state" looked kinda dumb, since his own leader has always advocated a minimal amount for subsidized daycare. It's part of the strategy to appear more Liberal than Liberal, emphasis on the word "appear".

Either way, Liam will insist that everything is the same as it always was.

The way Liam insists change is the same, and now likely that a tax increase is a tax decrease, the next thing he'll do is headline a post: "Harper: Double Plus Good!"

Harper: Up is Down for taxes

CBC is reporting that Stephen Harper admits he will raise taxes on lower income Canadians, if elected, but feels that his own plan will actually lower taxes for those same people.

"The problem with general tax reductions [of the type already implemented by the Martin government], as the Liberals have shown in the past, is they're always offset by other measures," Harper said. "That's why nobody's going to notice this particular tax reduction."

The really odd thing is that only last year, in 2004, Stephen Harper proposed exactly the sort of tax cuts he now criticizes as being a waste of energy.

On the Goods and Services Tax [GST], Harper pledged only 18 months ago to increase the GST credit for low and fixed income Canadians.

Harper must be using the kind of logic he used when devising his plan to give each Canadian family $1200 annually for each child under six years of age, but to tax the money so that Canadians actually get as little as $2.30 per week day. Harper calls this choice in child care.

Wow.

Now Harper wants to cut the GST by a mere 1% in the first year of a Harper government and thereby make more money available to Canadians who have larger incomes. GST cuts of the type proposed by Harper generate greater savings to Canadians with larger disposable incomes. Those people aren't on fixed and low incomes.

Search conservative.ca and see what happened to the increased GST rebate for low and fixed income Canadians. You won't find anything even vaguely like it.

In a Harper Canada, apparently even the laws of gravity will be repealed.

Up will be down.

And I only have 19, 960 cups of coffee left to get my $400 bucks, Steve.

My kidneys are thanking you.