The power of confusion

In an interview with CBC Radio On the Go, natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale tried to explain why the province's energy plan doesn't include extending Labrador hydro power to small communities in Labrador.

The argument Dunderdale was advancing seemed to puzzle host Ted Blades, since Dunderdale argued that running lines all the way to the island to replace the Holyrood generating station would entail no increased cost to rate payers, even though the project would be significantly more costly than hooking up some of the communities in Labrador currently served by diesel generators.

Here's a taste of the exchange:

Blades: I’ll get back to that subsidy in a minute, but let me just pursue the cost of the line a little bit further, you said roughly a hundred million dollars to put a spur out to the south coast when the line comes across to the island, what would it cost to go out to the northeast coast above Groswater Bay?

Dunderdale: Well, I would have to get those numbers for you Ted, I don’t have
them right in front of me, but it would cost in the hundreds of millions of dollars, would drive rates up significantly for ratepayers in Labrador and on the island.

Blades: Alright, well given that it’s going to cost billions of dollars to
run the line down to the island, so does that mean that our rates are
going to go up here on the island to pay for that?

That's where things got rather odd. Dunderdale explained that the Holyrood replacement would be financed through a guaranteed power purchase agreement with Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro.

She said it twice, which is a bit odd.

Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro is the entity that would be building the Lower Churchill and the transmission line, either directly or through its Lower Churchill Development Corporation subsidiary.

Now in the context, Dunderdale might have misspoken, saying Hydro when she meant Newfoundland Power. The former is the electricity producer; the latter is the private sector electricity retailer.

Still, it was an odd comment:

Dunderdale: No, what it means is that’s part of the overall project, we’ll need to get financing for the project, we will have to leverage the money that we earn out of our non-renewable projects to help fund the $6- to $9-billion that are going to be required to build the Lower Churchill. What happens with the transmission link is we are able to sell power from the Lower Churchill to Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro to replace Holyrood, so the transmission link, right in the first instance, gives us the first opportunity to have a power purchase agreement with Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro for around 500 MW of power, which will be part of the financing deal, will allow us to leverage financing to develop that project.

Then again, maybe she didn't misspeak. Maybe LCDC will sell the power to its parent, which will in turn sell to Power. Then Hydro - rather bizarrely one might think - would provide the purchase agreement for 500 megawatts of power and somehow give NLDC another bit of leverage to raise the capital to build the project. The Holyrood replacement power represents 18% of the estimated 2800 megawatts that would come from the Gull Island and Muskrat Falls generators.

That's a fair chunk.

Maybe Dunderdale has given another question to ask about Lower Churchill financing. After all, it wouldn't be the first time over the past few weeks when seemingly bizarre comments about energy and royalty regimes led ultimately to more information emerging.

-srbp-

Other people's money

From the Toronto Star editorial on the Hebron memorandum of understanding:

It's such a good deal, Williams said, that if he were outside government and had the chance to make such an investment, he would do so "in a heartbeat."

But Williams is not outside government and the comfort zone for a private investor is not a useful guide for the deployment of public funds.

Newfoundlanders might want to consider what happened when another Conservative premier used his provincial treasury to acquire a stake in the oil business.

In 1981 in Ontario, Bill Davis committed about $800 million to buy shares in Suncor. After falling in value for more than a decade, they were dumped in the early 1990s for a net loss of about $400 million.

Still, if Williams is right and the money starts rolling in, he will have earned his local-hero status.

If not, Williams will have provided another example of why politicians should stick to governing and leave investing to people who are only gambling their own money.

-srbp-

How convenient for Len and Danny

Any bets Len Simms will get his patronage job back right after the election?

-srbp-

Energy Plan

[Update: 1400 hrs local. More on the energy plan later on Tuesday and on Wednesday.]

When is a plan not a plan?

When it is a political statement.

Around Bond, we branded the energy plan - released today at 11:30 AM - as a political document months ago.

Some details may change, but the substance of that view remains.

The Hebron deal was a sign of how details may change, for example. That's the deal in which we now have Premier Danny Williams heading into his first election as Premier endorsing the royalty approach he condemned as leader of the opposition only four short years ago when he was looking for the job he's got now.

The big fight with Big Oil might not be such a big fight after all. In June, no one would have predicted a Hebron settlement. But the political nature of the document will remain.

It will still be the story of our future, as in the future is ours. it will still be about "fair share" and reasonable."

But as in the Hebron deal, there will be a lot more accommodation and concession that anyone in government is prepared to acknowledge.

The gas royalty regime - which was supposed to be released with the plan - might not make an appearance today if some versions hold true. It might appear but in a very vague form. The operators, you see, have already made it plain that they really don't want to see costs driven up. Equity still causes a problem, apparently, and one of those problems is cost, especially if the provincial government wants to farm in, by law, from the outset and in future projects will get a right of management control.

Let's see how that one plays out.

There might also be a new oil royalty regime, modelled on Hebron, but that will have to be vague. After all, the Hebron memorandum of understanding is secret so far, hidden from the resource owners because the co-venturers - including the provincial government - agreed among themselves to keep it secret.

Overall, though, we'd expect there to be a rehash of the past, lots of election-type rhetoric. And when it comes to an actual plan with action items and timelines? Those things an administration can be held accountable for?

Don't hold breath today waiting for those.

And as sometimes occurs here at Bond, this is one of those occasions when it would be so nice to be proven completely, utterly and totally wrong.

-srbp-

Danny Williams: I am my own electoral grandpa

In the land of completely useless news releases, one on Monday from the Premier's Office would surely be crowned king.

That is, it would be useless if it didn't reveal a far more serious problem with the current Elections Act than the trivial bit of business it purports to discuss.

Let's see if we can map out the problem.

The release headline purports to explain that a by-election is being called for Baie Verte district, yet at no point does the release indicate that the by-election has actually been called.

The reason for that schlamozzle is a series of changes to the Elections Act introduced by the Williams administration.

Under those changes, a by-election must be called within 60 days of a seat being declared vacant. The district of Baie Verte has been without a member in the House since former cabinet minister Paul Shelley resigned on July 12, 2007.

Hence, a by-election needs to be called very soon. The deadline is Wednesday.

However, the Elections Act also sets a fixed date for the general election. The writ for that can drop no later than Monday, September 17 so that voting day can be set for October 9. Once the House of Assembly is dissolved and a general election called, the by-election would simply be eliminated.

Unglaze those eyes.

It gets better.

Paul Shelley did his old boss a fine favour when he left, knowing full well the dates for the general election and when the writ for that would be dropped.

And that is really one aspect of what the "news" release is about. Someone shagged up royally in the rush to deliver on this particular promise from the last election, never considering the possibility of this sort of scenario. The Williams amendments from a few years ago cover the resignation of first ministers but they ignore the ordinary sods of the provincial legislature, like say cabinet ministers. They were clearly poorly thought through.

The release includes a wordy comment from the Premier which, like the rest of the release, is long on self-adulation but short on substance.

Like when exactly is the by-election the release mentions?

Turns out that in the midst of all the self-pleasuring comments, no date is given. This would lead one to conclude - logically - that no date exists for the by-election, since the Premier did not visit His Honour, the Lieutenant Governor and seek the necessary document authorizing the by-election as required by the law the release takes great pains to point out was brought into existence by the very fellow who couldn't find the time to take a short car ride to Government House at any point since July 12.

58 days ago.

And thereby give effect to his own law.

Plenty of time to have a by-election within the time limits prescribed by legislation which - we are told - was amended in order to reduce "the timelines required to call a by-election."

Now under ordinary circumstances, one might forgive the Premier for filling out the paperwork and calling a by-election, announcing it and then getting the big writ dropped a few days later.

or...

He could just take a cab down to Government House and drop the big writ on Wednesday. That way, he'd have killed two birds with one easy stone. He'd also have avoided the huge waste of time involved in issuing this news release that does nothing except praise himself to the hilt.

But we promised this tale gets better and indeed it does.

Under changes to the Elections Act introduced just this past spring, sped through the House of Assembly and gazetted before Paul Shelley packed it in, people have been able to vote by special ballot in the by-election that hasn't been called yet.

That's right.

The only problem is that the section of the Act, cooked up by former cabinet minister Chuck Furey while he was chief electoral officer, stipulates that a person may apply for a special ballot no more than four weeks before a writ of election is issued.

It doesn't specify general election or by-election. It just says "writ of election."

Since everyone knew the date of the general election - it being spelled out in black ink - figuring out the date for special balloting was pretty simple.

But what about a by-election, in which the Premier has the discretion of waiting up to 60 days to make the call? One would need to be Kreskin to figure out when the four weeks begins.

Maybe not, though.

To determine eligibility to apply for a special ballot, would one count from the end of the 60 days or the beginning of the period? One can make a logical argument both ways.

However, since the intent of the reforms introduced by the current administration [*see note below] was to reduce delays in holding by-elections, one might reasonably conclude that the clock started ticking on the day the resignation became effective.

Now, bear in mind as well that Paul Shelley didn't just walk into the Premier's Office on July 12 and throw his teddy in the corner, effective immediately.

Not by a long shot.

In January - nine freakin' months ago - Shelley announced he was leaving politics and would resign once the House finished its spring session. He fixed the date towards the end of that session, in other words, at such a time that he and his colleagues could have figured out the problems that would ensue from the amendments to the Elections Act they were pushing through.

Because here's the thing: under the Elections Act, a voter in Baie Verte district would be reasonably entitled to have applied for a special ballot at any time after June 14 (when the amendments received Royal Assent) since that is less than four weeks before the earliest date on which the by-election for Baie Verte could have been called.

Let's see if we can put it together in just one - very long - sentence that, as much as anything else, embodies the sheer inanity of the current elections law in this province.

Take a breath:

The news release announcing a by-election that never contained the information on the by-election supposedly being called, but which actually discussed why changes to the Elections Act introduced by the current administration needed to be followed - even though they created a nonsense of calling a by-election and then calling a general election days afterward, actually pointed out yet another problem with the special ballot provisions of the Elections Act, namely that someone could have actually, legally applied for a ballot to vote in a by-election that had not been called, almost a month before Paul Shelley actually resigned.

I am my own electoral grandpa, indeed.

The people - Liberal, Progressive Conservative and new Democrat - who brought you this farce will soon be knocking on your door, asking for your vote so they can run the province for another four years.

Take your time before deciding.

Frankly, it's doubtful any of them are even qualified to be your latex salesman.

-srbp-

[*Incidentally, it is not the Williams government with or without a capital "g". It is Her Majesty's Government. The first minister presides over an administration which will - like its predecessors - come to an end. The government is the enduring entity.]

Welcome to Energyville!

Energyville is an online game that illustrates the challenges and complexities of meeting energy needs in a modern society. The game was developed by The Economist Group and hosted at willyoujoinus.com, a site run by Chevron.

UK-based communications consultant Neville Hobson describes the game this way:

The game makes you think about the issues surrounding energy usage, society’s needs, security, effects on the environment… indeed, all the hot issues surrounding the changes happening in our world and the impacts we have on our environment.

Energyville is cleverly conceived and implemented. It has credibility, both in the breadth and depth of content and the fact that The Economist is behind its development.

Where it really scores is in how it wraps all of this up and presents it in a highly entertaining way.

What would be great is if this online game were to be developed as a standalone, downloadable version and made available for a nominal cost if not for free. Then I think there would be real opportunities for enormous awareness-raising.

Anyway, have a go yourself and see if it impacts your thinking about our environment

willyoujoinus.com is a Chevron initiative designed to foster an online discussion about energy and environmental issues. The website is essentially conventional in many respects, although it apes the interactivity and language of Web 2.0 with terms like "post".

As Neville Hobson has pointed out in another post, a blog approach would have provided Chevron with a site that offers personality and authenticity. those are key factors in establishing credibility and credibility is one area where a website on energy and the environment may suffer when run by a major oil company.

As it is, the site includes e-cards, but the bulk of the site - aside from Energyville and the discussion forum are Chevron's standard advertising content supporting the initiative. lovely stuff, that it is, these traditional approaches won't succeed where a more up-to-date approach would likely have succeeded. In an online world where "go big or go home" is more likely get positive results, Chevron stuck with the same-old, same-old.

Still, willyoujoinus.com is a step in the right direction. Energyville in particular has bags of content that will be highly provocative. Having the game designed by The Economist helps significantly with its credibility. Just imagine the impact this site might have had if Chevron employees were able to speak directly about major issues they deal with each day.

-srbp-

Mulroney skips Atlantic

Brian Mulroney is skipping Atlantic Canada in the tour to flog his new memoirs.

Burlington, Ontario, known to some locals as Borington, will get to see the former prime minister in the flesh, as will Canadians living in Vancouver, Edmonton, Calgary, Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal.

Burlington.

But not a single stop in Atlantic Canada.

-srbp-

To comment or not to comment

From the Australian public relations blog, Better communications results, comes a timely post on the subject of comments on blogs.

Not surprisingly, opinions vary.

Equally unsurprising is the indication of a trend to be found on some local blogs for comments to turn into pointless, sometimes personally hostile comments by anonymous people.

There have been some examples of that at Bond Papers, especially in the posts by an essentially anonymous commenter on the post "The revenge of the newfies?" containing Benoit Aubin's recent L'actualite piece on the province.

If you want to see the sort of pseudo-flame war that can erupt, there's a good example locally from a blog run by a pseudonym who - himself - also keeps his profile closed and makes it pretty well impossible for most people to find out either his identity or an e-mail address where you could reach him to take up an issue privately. The big spurt of personal vitriol erupted in the late winter and early spring; he commented on the "Revenge" posting, incidentally, following the same tactic of launching a form of personal attack rather than deal with the post itself.

As a last point, let's take a clip from Dave Winer's view on the subject of comments:

..."The cool thing about blogs is that while they may be quiet, and it may be hard to find what you’re looking for, at least you can say what you think without being shouted down. This makes it possible for unpopular ideas to be expressed. And if you know history, the most important ideas often are the unpopular ones…. That’s what’s important about blogs, not that people can comment on your ideas. As long as they can start their own blog, there will be no shortage of places to comment.”

Comments are an issue, and how to handle them takes some consideration. Moderation is, to my mind, a form of peculiar censorship. In practice, it seems to turn that unpopular comments - i.e. ones that don't fawn over the blogger or essentially confirm their line of argument - never see the light of day.

At Bond Papers and Persuasion Business, the practice has been to require a blogger.com ID and an e-mail address as a way of forcing people to take responsibility for their own words. People who don't want to do that can go elsewhere and their comments - usually the pseudonymous, blocked profile types - will usually find their words deleted. This is especially the case when the comments turn out to be ad hominem nonsense. They remain in the e-mail in-basket, though, for future reference.

Comments can add significantly to a thread, such as Craig Welsh's questioning of the recent poll goosing post, or the opinion offered by another commenter - with a name but closed profile - on a thread about Hebron royalties.

In a post on Grenfell, strong opinion was voiced from what appeared to be an anonymous commenter. When challenged on that point, an e-mail appeared which identified the person as someone who has offered - as in the comments - thoughtful, strong opinions. The person took responsibility for his words and hence they remain available for all to see. He added significantly to the discussion.

At Bond Papers, there have always been comments even if the ability to comment on each post has been disabled. That's while the profile is open and an e-mail address is prominently displayed. Some of the most valuable, informed and sometimes highly critical comments have come from there. Productive discussions ensued and in one case, a scathing comment intended for publication with the thread came through e-mail; it went on the thread as the commenter intended originally intended and with the commenter's permission. Strong words and critical comment are not enough to get someone's words in the bin.

Comments on blogs are likely to be a hot topic in the upcoming election for two reasons:

1. Blogs have become a source of critical or alternative comment, something the Premier has made plain he doesn't like.

2. One tactic to counteract that would be deploying sock puppets - the anonymous ad hominem attackers - to disrupt the information flow. They are the modern version of the thugs sent to a rival meeting to start a fight.

Let's see what happens as the story unfolds.

-srbp-

[Cross posted to Persuasion Business]

Brave talk, but still meaningless blather

Natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale signed off on another extension to the White Rose oil field on Friday. Husky energy, the main partner in the project can now develop 24 million barrels of recoverable oil at a cost of $595 million.

Good news, considering there was much speculation that the provincial government would try and squeeze cash out of the lucrative development. White Rose's light, sweet crude is easier and cheaper to develop than Hebron.

Turns out the province is just going to settle on talking about possibly, theoretically maybe getting some extra cash or local benefits.

Don't bet on it.

If the financial discussions are not a specific condition of the development application amendment approval, there's pretty much Sweet Fanny Adams that Dunderdale can do. She says some brave bluster words, but consider Dunderdale to be full of so much hot air.

As Dunderdale told the Telegram:

"The proponents have chosen to proceed with this development, even though the fiscal and other terms haven’t been finalized.

"What we will have to ensure, as we continue our discussions around these satellite field developments, is that the province receives a fair return."

Right off the bat, "fair return" is the sort of meaningless phrase that Danny Williams and his minister's like to throw around. They never say what it means, which means that it can be anything they want it to.

Dunderdale and her boss add nary a nickle to the existing development over and above the lucrative generic royalty regime established in 1996? That's a "fair return".

The company agrees to do "whatever work is possible" here in the province, but with no obligation to do any fixed percentage or amount?

That's a "fair return" as well.

Vague words.

No possible way of defining it and measuring it.

Therefore, success or failure are impossible to determine.

It's the opposite of accountable.

In fact vague language like "fair return" is deliberately designed to promote unaccountability.

Second of all, no oil company in its right mind would develop a field - even an extension of one in development - unless it knew the costs of development were settled or could be predicted reasonably well. The idea Husky is going to figure out later what to pay the provincial government is simply ludicrous.

But it's an election season so the provincial government has to give it's goosed version of the facts. To reinforce what will quickly become the Hebron myth, Dunderdale is obliged to say the province is looking for all the things it won at Hebron.

Only difference is, at Hebron they held up approval to negotiate first.

On White Rose, Dunderdale and her boss don't have quite the same leverage.

They signed it away, up front.

-srbp-

"Hebron means money, research for Memorial"

From The Muse, student newspaper at Memorial University:

“The Faculty of Engineering has a particularly strong link with the oil and gas industry, so there are direct benefits that I expect would follow from the Hebron project. These include increased opportunities within our province for our co-op students, graduates, and alumni of the Faculty of Engineering,” said Dean of Engineering Ray Gosine.

According to Memorial’s Oil And Gas Development Partnership (OGDP), these job opportunities will trickle down to other facets of the community.

The initial phase of construction is less likely to employ MUN students, however there are many opportunities down the road, says Randolf Cooper, executive director of OGDP.

“It’s quite encouraging to look at the bigger picture and the long term. That’s where you start to break down a lot of stereotypes. … I think there may be just as many jobs for people with business degrees, as opposed to degrees from earth sciences or engineering,” he said.

“Some of it takes on aspects of the trickle down economy, by the time the money gets into circulation, there are certainly a lot of people in the hospitality business that are going to benefit.”

Director of OGDP Research, Ian Atkinson, agrees.

“Even though first oil is in 2015, there is an immediate economic boost when they commit to the project. They bring people in, and right away there’s a need for more housing and people are spending money,” he said.

It will also mean major research opportunities in the future, in all sorts of scientific disciplines.

“It remains very much a laboratory for Memorial,” said Cooper. “It certainly looks like oil is headed more and more towards arctic and harsh weather environment exploration.”

-srbp-

"Insert a simple clause"

Will there be such a simple clause in the Hebron agreement?

The Telegram
Friday, May 17, 2002, p. A4

Williams on Voisey's warpath

Deborah Thomas
The Telegram

Danny Williams is making it his personal mission to make sure the people of Newfoundland and Labrador don't get a raw Voisey's Bay deal.

The Opposition leader is calling on the Grimes government to include a clause in any Voisey's Bay deal to state the agreement must be ratified by the House of Assembly first.

No such clause exists now, and Williams fears Inco will take legal action if, after a debate in the House of Assembly, the government has to make changes to it.

"Our responsibility here, as members of the legislature, is to make sure the people of Newfoundland and Labrador are protected, and the only way to do that is to see that deal," he said. "Such a simple clause will eliminate all legal risk."

Williams said the clause needs to be tight, fool-proof and clear, but also simply state that the House of Assembly must debate and approve it first. He's afraid a lawsuit could bankrupt the province.

"The premier does have a majority in this legislature. Why is he afraid of an open and a frank debate? Is he afraid there is going to be loopholes or flaws or problems with that deal?" he said.

-srbp-

Called at last. Called at last.

The provincial Progressive Conservatives were short candidates in two seats when voting started on August 20.

It wasn't from lack of trying. No one apparently has shown any interest in running in the Grit stronghold of Torngat Mountains.

Meanwhile, the presence of four good candidates in full campaign mode didn't seem to impress the party leader enough to call the nomination in the safe Tory seat of St. John's East, being vacated by the superlative gentleman, John Ottenheimer.

There's been speculation about some secret strategy but that is a smoke screen.

According to local political scuttlebutt, Dan was desperately trying to get his old buddy Dean to take the spot. Dean said no.

Then there was casting about for a Number 2.

Apparently, Valerie took a pass as well.

So now it's down to Ed Buckingham, Dave Crosbie and a couple of others to battle it out in the race that starts officially on September 17. The nomination opened officially at 5:00 PM on Friday and ends - surprisingly - on Sunday.

In the meantime, let's all ponder this one: someone votes early and writes Dean MacDonald on the ballot in St. John's East.

Since Deano was never a candidate for any party, how would that vote be counted?

-srbp-

Porn Talk

On Friday afternoon's show, Crap Talk host Bill Rowe asked political candidate Elvis Loveless if he was any relation to singer Linda Lovelace.

Singer, Bill?

Umm.

Not exactly a singer Bill but... oh never mind.

Linda Lovelace was just the star of one of the most well-known porno movies in history and probably the most profitable one in all cinema history.

The title of the movie, and Linda's particular skill, was the inspiration for the name given to the secret source Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein used to break the Watergate scandal.

After a break, Bill sheepishly explained that he'd actually meant singer Patty Loveless.

Pesky things those homonyms.

Ahhh. That explains it.

Quick save, there Mr. Producer

After all, if Bill had really been thinking quickly, he'd have tossed in the fact that singer Loveless has a song titled "I try to think about Elvis" whereas the actress Lovelace might have had some other connection to Elvis.

And then the eye-rolling would have started again across the network named for the Volvo Owners Club of Malaysia.

-srbp-

Pull the other one

vocm.com is carrying a story featuring comments from Corporate Research Associates president Don Mills on his company's latest poll results in Newfoundland and Labrador.

It includes this statement:

Mills says the timing of the Hebron announcement was 'impeccable' for the premier given the election is just weeks away.

Well, the timing was impeccable but it had little to do with the election, which, as pretty well everyone knows, has been underway since at least last June.

Nope.

Check the timing on when CRA was in the field.

August 9 to August 31.

The Hebron announcement came, quite suddenly, and quite inexplicably given that there was no final deal, on August 22.

Right smack in the middle of Mills' data collection.

Not like the first time this administration - or its predecessor for that matter - timed major government announcements to coincide with Mills' quarterly data collection.


Take a look at the graph at left. The blue line is the weekly number of news releases from the provincial government. The green spaces are the times CRA was in the field.

The provincial government knows when CRA is collecting data since the provincial government is a CRA client for the quarterly survey.

The coincidence of the peaks with the polling periods doesn't look random. In fact it's a bit hard to explain making a major announcement in August, for example, or a high volume of government releases in August when most people are on vacation.

It's harder to explain a quickie announcement of a huge oil deal before the deal is actually finalized. Election? Well, there was a whole block of time after Labour Day for that, especially the time when the election is on and people are focused on electioneering.

Impeccable timing, yes, but timed for the election?

Pull the other one, Don, it's got bells on it.

Telephone bells ringing with a pollster on the other end of the line.

-srbp-

Election Blogs

CBC's Mike Rossiter and David Cochrane will be on the campaign trail and keeping blogs.

The thought of these guys tapping out daily observations separate from their reports is not as strange as it might seem. It's a variation on what CBC did in 2003 with all its campaign reporters and Cochrane even posted a few things to his own experimental blog.

It'll make things interesting if, during the campaign, the Premier decides to take a swipe at those nefarious bloggers he seems to notice every once in a while.

Anyway, what exactly will these reporter blogs be called?

Ross-itations?

Cochrants?

Tales from the Crackberry?

Winne-blogo?

The possibilities are endless!

-srbp-

Another blog, a cut above

Writer.

Good writer.

Bright future.

Sheena Goodyear's Don't quote me on this

-srbp-

Standing by your man via Blackberry

The opposition parties want health minister Ross Wiseman to resign over problems in the province's health system.

Failing that, they'd like the Premier to end Wiseman's second career in heath care. (He used to be a human resources manager.)

Ok.

That's a pretty standard political cry.

Not surprisingly, the premier is standing behind his man Ross, as he said in a statement coming - presumably - over his comms director's Blackberry:

"He is an incredibly competent, conscientious and hard-working minister. He is dealing with a number of serious issues, many which started under the Liberal administration, and I have great faith in his abilities," Williams said.

Again, a pretty standard response.

But if the Premier really stood behind Wiseman he might have used his own voice and done it by deriding the opposition for yet another lame-assed, predictable pile of drivel.

As it stands, Wiseman got the same endorsement one imagines that Rona and Gordon got just before they were punted to new jobs.

-srbp-

Summer of Love: MHAs continue gifts of public money

Remember Tom Rideout's dance trying to explain away how he and all his colleagues in the House of Assembly misled the public on when the Green report was taking effect?

Remember his gift of $5000 of public money to a local charity just a few short weeks before Chief Justice Derek Green condemned the practice?

Remember the claim that the Progressive Conservative caucus had taken The Pledge and would not be handing out public money as gifts? It was a big part of the story on how - according to Rideout - today was today but tomorrow was October 9 and not June 15, the day after the Green bill was passed. The old rules can stay in place - even though we suggested something else to you already - because we have promised not to hand out public money as gifts to the public.

Turns out to have been a crock.

The gifts - always labelled "donations" - are just coming from a different pot than the one they used to come from.

Clayton Forsey, the Progressive Conservative MHA for Exploits, shows up in St. Alban's (not in his district) in August and is referred to in the local paper as handing out $500 "on behalf of" none other than Premier Danny Williams.

Then two weeks later, the local paper prints a correction saying that the "donation" - to a local fundraiser for a cancer centre - was actually from the provincial health department. The money came, but it was from the health department. Check the hard copy because Transcon hasn't updated thecoaster.ca for almost a month.

Delivered by Clayton Forsey, mind you and so obviously identified as a partisan. The money didn't come from the minister or even the deputy minister or even the head of the local health authority. Nope it came from visiting Tory back-bencher, like that was a secret.

Since when does any provincial line department give a "donation" to an event such as this in the first place let alone deliver a cheque by such an obviously partisan means?

Good cause, mind you but departments put up the capital to build cancer centres and staff them. They don't make "donations" to local fundraisers, especially through an MHA, Tory now or Liberals before. If the Liberals did it before, then it is no more right than Forsey and whoever of his buddies are doing it these days.

This one needs some investigation by someone. If there's one example, there's like more that never got picked up by the local weekly.

This little story is highly suspicious.

So suspicious in fact that it should get the attention of the Auditor General, not to mention members of the general public who have already been misled on this issue at least once before by members of the House of Assembly.

oh yeah and while we're at it, where did this grand come from? [By mid-day this link turned up dead for some unknown reason. google search "clayton forsey $1000" and it will re-appear. Check the "cached page" for the full story from August 20. if that doesn't work, try this link which seems to be a new page identity for this story.]

Someone should be taking official notice of these goings on. After all, it's not like this is the first time Forsey's been reported handing out public money, even before the Summer of Love officially kicked off.

-srbp-

Charest chief of staff and comms director leave

Two senior members of Jean Charest's staff have departed. Chief of staff Stephane Bertrand and communications director Michel Guitard.

Gitard's departure is effective September 14. The two are said to be passing the torch and leave the office voluntarily.

-srbp-

Deep Panuke approved

The Deep Panuke gas project offshore Nova Scotia passed another hurdle today with a decision from federal environment minister John Baird that the project "is not likely to cause any adverse environmental effects."

The project has now been referred to other regulatory authorities for further action. A project description can be found at the Nova Scotia offshore regulatory board website.

-srbp-

For Number One Daughter

who started Grade Four today, who is always full of enthusiasm and energy and who, each day, makes her family prouder (none prouder than her mother who is still a bit taller than she is).

-srbp-

For Number One Son...

who started Grade Nine today, who is in no danger of failing, and who makes his family prouder every day (none prouder than his father, who is still a bit taller than he is.)

-srbp-

Show me the oil money!

Here's another story on the Hebron deal from Embassy. The story discusses the recent Hebron announcement in the wider context of a policy debate in Alberta over royalty regimes.

There are some interesting comments in the story, coming from natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale.

"It [the first round of talks] fell off the rails around equity, super-royalties and secondary processing," Newfoundland Natural Resources Minister Kathy Dunderdale said of the negotiations in an interview Monday. "The premier [Danny Williams] said at the time we were prepared to let some things go, but not the equity or the super-royalties.

Not exactly.

Premier Williams made two different sets of three demands. In April 2005, he said the province was looking for two of the three of:

- better royalties (undefined);

- better local benefits; and,

- local processing.

The Premier took the refinery off the list as soon as a consortium announced they were exploring a second refinery for Placentia Bay.

A year later, the Premier had three different demands:

- better local benefits;

- a super-royalty, to kick in when oil traded above a certain price per barrel; and,

- an "equity" stake.

The super-royalty was never clearly defined; indeed, not much of the list was defined in any measurable way.

When the talks fell apart, there were essentially two issues:

1. The companies could not agree among themselves on the equity request, reduced apparently from 10% to 4.9% to avoid involving any management decision-making powers; and,

2. A request by the companies for tax concessions which the province was not willing to consider.

In the memorandum of understanding, the issues were resolved such that the companies got a royalty break in lieu of the other tax concessions. The province got two other items but the details of how those work are still secret.

That's what makes discussion of the equity stake in the context of the Embassy story a little odd. There are some references - including here at Bond - to operating a state-owned oil company as in other countries. In truth, the thing may turn out to be nothing more than shares handled by an operating company as with the Canada Hibernia Holding Company.

How the shares are handled and what the energy company turns out to be will affect the net value of the thing to the province as a whole. Notice that the minister refers to the vague concept of having a window on the industry from the standpoint of developers. It certainly isn't clear what that means and how it may benefit the province in any way at all.

-srbp-

Start Your Own Political Party

If there's one of these, then why do we need one of these?

The New Democratic Party is supposed to be the party of labour but now someone starting a labour party.

Hmmm.

Next thing you know someone will re-start the Newfoundland and Labrador Party, which is not to be confused with the Newfoundland and Labrador First Party.

Has anyone seen the Popular People's Front for the Liberation of Judea (Officials)?

-srbp-

The Zen of Blogs

Wise One: What, grasshopper, is the sound made by one head repeatedly hitting the computer desk?

Grasshopper: Shagged if I know, Boss. But the head might be banging after finding a serious story about a shortage of urologists in the province linked by Dave Barry's blog in the US, with the suggestion that "Canadian Urologist Shortage" would be a good name for a band?

This one comes with a gigantic doff of the bowler to the cbc.ca webninjas who tied their sites to Technorati.

To update that story, the official position of the regional health authority is that they won't be speaking publicly about concerns raised recently by a local urologist. His concerns led to the CBC story that led ultimately to Dave's World.

Lessons?

Well, Lesson One: just about anyone will find anything funny.

Lesson Two: if you just got the living daylights hauled out of you on a health issue when your media strategy was entirely reactive and didn't say a heckuva lot, then maybe it might time to think of a new concept in public relations besides "no comment".

That second lesson isn't for the comms people invovled - it's for the management types who think silence is an effective way to disseminate information.

-srbp-

The impact of new media

Update: link to fleetstreetpr.com fixed.

New media can be used for niceness or evil, to paraphrase Maxwell Smart.

How you interpret this example from Ontario's election campaign on a "Goodness" scale depends on which partisan side you take.

The one thing everyone will agree on is that new media had an impact - an apology was issued - even if it is a transient one.

From the other side, there are examples like this one poking at John Tory's Liberal counterpart Dalton McGuinty.

-srbp-

Deconfusing the royalty confusion

In Friday's National Post, Premier Danny Williams said:

With regards to criticism of modifications to the basic royalty, it is important to note that the change is the difference between 2.5% and 1% -- not between 7.5% and 1% as reported by Mr. Coyne -- in addition, we still maintain the 5%, and in some cases 7.5%, level of royalty once costs are recovered.

For those familiar with the provincial generic royalty regime, this would create some confusion since the situation described by the Premier is not how the existing generic royalty regime works.

The generic royalty regime provides for a basic royalty that increases from 1%, through 2.5%, 5% to a maximum of 7.5% depending on when the project achieves simple payout. Under provincial petroleum regulations, simple payout occurs when cumulative gross revenue and incidental revenue exceeds the sum of allowable pre-development costs, capital expenditures, operating expenditures and basic royalty paid.

After simple payout is achieved, the royalty paid is the greater of the basic royalty rate (assessed on gross revenue) or the net royalty rates of 20% and 10% after an allowed rate of return.

In order for the adjustment to basic royalty in the pre-payout phase to be the difference between "2.5% and 1%" - as the Premier states - the Hebron project would have to recover its eligible costs within the first two to three years of production or less. His comment assumes an extremely optimistic scenario.

The Premier referred to total costs of between $7 and $11 billion in the 22 August announcement. Taking that as the amount to be recovered (pre-development plus development plus operating expenses and royalties fixed at 1% annually), and given the scenarios contained in two previous Bond Papers preliminary assessments, cumulative gross revenue would exceed $7.0 billion after about three to four years.

At that point, the basic royalty under the generic regime would likely about 5.0%. Thus the difference between Williams' Hebron and the generic regime would be the difference between 1% (Williams) and 5% 9generic). If costs are higher and the time to simple payout is longer, then the generic regime would likely reach 7.5%.

At the same time the Premier said that : "in addition, we still maintain the 5%, and in some cases 7.5%, level of royalty once costs are recovered". This is correct, however, under the existing petroleum regulations, those rates would apply - and the province would collect that revenue - only in a situation where the basic royalty produced more revenue than the Tier 1 and Tier 2 net royalties. Presumably under the Williams regime, this would also include the Tier 3 royalty.

In other words, in a scenario where the basic royalty was paid at 5% or 7.5% after simple payout, none of the much higher rates on net royalty - including the Premier's new Tier 3 - would be paid. This point is explained by provincial government documents.

The royalty regime appears to have been adjusted for Hebron as indicated in the 22 Aug news to a flat 1% royalty due at the commencement of production. This replaces the generic regime that started at 1% and would likely have increased to 5% or more by the time of simple payout. At the same time, the regime under the proposed Williams' Hebron regime is, to paraphrase natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale, a decision to forego revenues (royalties) in the initial years of production for possible royalties in the later stages.

This is an understandable compromise given the cost issues in the project, but it does reduce the initial royalty accruing to the province likely by between 4% and 6.5%. Any revenue foregone in the initial phase of the project may be recovered subsequently but only as long as prices for oil stay above $50 per barrel for WTI (Tier 3 royalties apply). Again, depending on how the Tier 3 royalty works this may be an understandable compromise. Unfortunately there is insufficient information in the public domain to assess the potential performance of the Tier 3 royalty.

The revenue accruing to the energy company does not offset this royalty concession. in the initial stages of production, the provincial energy company will be recovering its own share of the development costs. it is also liable for operating expenses, provincial taxes, federal taxes and other costs.[Note: see below] Thus any revenue, it collects must be assessed on a net basis.
Royalties are received by the provincial government acting as the resource owner (100%), without any liabilities; the net and the gross are identical figures. The provincial government collects and retains 100% of royalties with no revenue from royalties accruing to the federal government.

-srbp-

Note: Under s. 41 of the 1985 Atlantic Accord, Crown corporations receive no exemptions or special treatment with respect to taxes and other payments to the federal and provincial Crowns.:

Crown corporations and agencies involved in oil and gas resource activities in the offshore area shall be subject to all taxes, royalties and levies.

As a result of the Hebron memorandum of understanding, the Government of Canada will collect revenues from the provincial government's share of overall revenues which it ordinarily would not collect. These come in the form of federal corporate taxes, for example.

The revenge of the Newfies?

From the current issue of L'actualite an article with a less than desirable title but an interesting set of opinions - from across the spectrum - on Newfoundland and Labrador at the start of the 21st century, looking forward.

The interviews for this piece were done several months ago, so some of it, like the bit on Hebron is a bit dated. Nonetheless, here it is. The paragraphing may be slightly off from the original but those who can read French will figure it out. Ignore the "n" word; there are other ideas in here from a variety of people that go far beyond the ethnic slur.

For those who can't read French, well there are online programs but they give a bizarre rendition. Like this bit run through babelfish which comes out sounding like Borat:

Ed Hollett worked at the office of Clyde Wells at the beginning of the years 1990, when this last was a Prime Minister. Hollett is today to advise in communications and strategies with St. John's. He doesn't believe there is a Newfoundland movement. There does not believe in separatism ground-neuvien. "It is no civil company, not political party, not of movement of mass as in Quebec to support and to feed such a project."

However, Hollett sees stinging the revolution ground-neuvienne. "From here a few years, the poorest province of the country will join the club sélect those which pay equalization instead of receiving some. That will have a major effect on balance of the forces to the country which is always maintained in the Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal triangle "

Hollett sees Newfoundland very well taking the head of a "Atlantic force" which will operate the rebalancing of the forces to the countries "that of which Albertains also dream, but that they were not able to precisely succeed, because they are too... insular,".

Is a new whole newfie power emerging? "Since time that the Newfoundlanders emigrate, one finds some everywhere in Canada, often at important stations, known as Ed Hollett. They will not separate, they will rather make feel their presence.

With the magic of some editing and knowing what was actually said in the interview, one comes up with something a bit more digestible:

Ed Hollett worked for Clyde Wells in the early 1990s, when the latter was Premier. Hollett is today a communications and strategy advisor in St. John's. He doesn't believe there is a Newfoundland separatist movement."There is no civic society [comparable to the St. Jean Baptiste society], no political party, no mass movement as in Quebec to support and to feed such a goal."

However, Hollett sees a Newfoundland revolution. "A few years from now, the poorest province of the country will join the select group of provinces that do not receive Equalization. That will have a major effect on the balance of the forces in the country which is always maintained in the Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal triangle."

Hollett sees Newfoundland heading an"Atlantic force" which will rebalance the forces to the countries "that Albertans also dream about , but that they were not able to attain exactly, because they are too... insular."

Is a new whole newfie power emerging? "When Newfoundlanders emigrate, one finds them everywhere in Canada, often in important positions," says Ed Hollett. "They will not separate; they will instead make their presence felt."

Pick up the hard copy; there is always plenty to consider in L'actualite.

L'Actualité
Vol: 32 No: 14
15 Septembre 2007
p. 60

La revanche des Newfies ?

Benoît Aubin

Désormais riches de leur manne pétrolière, les Terre-Neuviens en ont marre des conditions de la fédération canadienne. Leur fougueux premier ministre reprend même le slogan "Maîtres chez nous" ! Recette pour une explosion.

Terre-Neuve, c'est loin. D'ici comme de partout. Rendu à Signal Hill, la butte qui surplombe le havre de St. John's, il est impossible d'aller plus loin sans se mouiller les pieds. C'est le point le plus à l'est de toute l'Amérique du Nord. C'est là que Marconi a capté le premier signal radio transatlantique, en 1901. À cet endroit précis, on est à la même distance des côtes de l'Irlande que du coeur de Toronto.

Le paysage est immuable, mais la politique, elle, a changé. Aujourd'hui, " bien des gens sentent que Terre-Neuve est plus près de l'Irlande ou de l'Islande que d'Ottawa ou de Toronto ", dit Jimmy, mon chauffeur de taxi.

Il se passe quelque chose à Terre-Neuve, et personne, là-bas, n'ose prédire ce qui en résultera. Le Canada semble affligé d'un nouveau Québec, d'une autre société distincte, maritime, celle-là, qui rue à son tour dans les brancards fédéraux.

Terre-Neuve deviendra-t-elle la prochaine menace séparatiste ? Ou unira-t-elle ses forces à celles de l'Alberta et du Québec pour forcer Ottawa à revoir la façon dont le pays est dirigé ? Ou encore, se retrouvera-t-elle toute seule au large, sans pétrole ni morue, sans alliés ni péréquation ? Tout, semble-t-il, dépendra de son premier ministre, Danny Williams, 58 ans, un politicien explosif, impulsif et archi-populaire chez lui.

Le diable est aux vaches. En moins de quatre ans au pouvoir, Williams, un conservateur, s'est fait des adversaires de taille dans son combat pour " l'autonomie " de sa province. Il a déclaré la guerre à son homologue fédéral, Stephen Harper. L'enjeu : une question de péréquation. Il a aussi claqué la porte aux négociations sur l'exploitation du champ pétrolifère de Hebron, compromettant le plus gros projet de Terre-Neuve pour la prochaine décennie. Pour une histoire de redevances et de participation accrue de la province à l'affaire. Et il envoie paître Hydro-Québec, menaçant de construire seul un giga-barrage sur le fleuve Churchill, au Labrador et
de faire passer les fils sous la mer plutôt qu'au Québec. Tant pis si cela retarde la mise en route du chantier.

Danny Williams, le nouvel enfant terrible de la politique canadienne, a déjà fait enlever, il y a deux ans, le drapeau du Canada de devant son parlement en guise de protestation contre Ottawa (il s'est ravisé face au tollé que cela a provoqué, surtout en Ontario et en Alberta). Ce printemps, il a promis, dans son discours du Trône, que les Terre-Neuviens seraient désormais " maîtres chez eux " ("masters of our own house ") : une allusion très nette au cri de guerre poussé par le premier ministre québécois Jean Lesage durant la Révolution tranquille.

" Culturellement, les gens d'ici se sentent tellement différents des autres Canadiens. C'est là-dessus qu'on rejoint très bien les Québécois ", dit l'ancienne religieuse Lorraine Michael, aujourd'hui seule députée NPD du Parlement provincial. " En ce moment, il n'y a pas, à mon avis, de majorité en faveur de la rupture avec le Canada. Mais il existe néanmoins un sentiment nationaliste très puissant, et Danny en joue comme un virtuose. "

Si vous voyez une spectaculaire Dodge Viper ou une grosse Bentley rouler un soir dans Water Street, dans le centre de St. John's, vous savez que Danny sort en ville. Le premier ministre, l'un des hommes les plus riches de la province, possède une collection personnelle d'automobiles célèbre dans cette capitale à peine plus grande
que Sherbrooke et où tout le monde se connaît. Le garage de sa vaste maison de bardeaux blanche, dans le beau quartier appelé The Trees (parce que toutes les rues y portent des noms d'arbres), contient aussi une Jaguar, des camions de sport et une autocaravane, avec laquelle il aime faire campagne dans les petits villages blottis au fond des innombrables baies et fjords du littoral.

Chez lui, Danny Williams n'est pas juste le premier ministre : il est une star. Ex-hockeyeur-vedette, ex-avocat en vue, ex-homme d'affaires devenu multimillionnaire, il est tout à la fois le Maurice Richard et le René Lévesque de sa nation, bref, le Robin des Bois qui rachètera les faiblesses et les erreurs du passé quitte à forcer le Canada à revoir comment il se définit et se gouverne... ou quitte à s'en séparer.

Ou alors, comme le dépeint Craig Westcott, éditeur du Business Post (un hebdomadaire économique local) et l'un des rares à oser le critiquer ouvertement, Danny Williams n'est qu'un autre démagogue mégalomane du cru terre-neuvien dans la lignée des Joey Smallwood, Brian Peckford ou Brian Tobin , ivre de son pouvoir et qui joue avec le feu, assissur un baril de pétrole, pendant que sa province vit dans une incertitude économique constante.

Quoi qu'il en soit, la population est massivement derrière Williams à plus de 70 %, selon les sondages et pour lui, vraisemblablement, l'élection provinciale du 9 octobre est déjà dans la poche. Il aura donc encore quatre ans pour jouer le match revanche des Newfies, qui sont de moins en moins heureux du choix qu'ils ont fait de se joindre au Canada au milieu du siècle dernier.

C'est le cas par exemple du maire de St. John's, Andy Wells (aucune parenté avec l'ex-premier ministre Clyde Wells). " Nous sommes assez nationalistes par ici ; je serais parfaitement chez moi au Québec, vous savez ", dit le maire, qui apprend le français en lisant L'actualité. "

"Je suis aussi canadien que n'importe qui, mais je ne pense pas que Terre-Neuve a fait une bonne affaire avec la Confédération. Je ne pense pas que nous en avons profité autant que nous aurions dû. Mais les choses vont changer. Il nous fallait un gars comme Danny Williams. "

Une opinion à laquelle souscrit Lorraine Michael, dans l'opposition de gauche au Parlement : " Dans leur coeur, les Terre-Neuviens sont des nationalistes qui aimeraient bien vivre à nouveau dans un pays indépendant. Mais dans leur tête, ils ne voient pas comment cela pourrait se produire. "

Alors, St. John's et Québec, même combat ? Terre-Neuve a aussi sa fête nationale le 24 juin. Le 1er juillet est surtout un jour de deuil, commémorant un régiment local décimé à Beaumont-Hamel, dans le nord de la France, durant la Première Guerre mondiale quand la province était toujours indépendante. Terre-Neuve a aussi son hymne national, Ode to Newfoundland, très prisé auprès de la population, qui est restée attachée au drapeau tricolore vert-blanc-rose, qui a longtemps flotté sur l'île, à l'époque de son indépendance.

Un quincaillier, John Templeton, a créé une gamme de peinture reproduisant fidèlement les couleurs originales des vieilles maisons terre-neuviennes elle se vend comme des homards sur le quai. Les syndicats locaux militent pour une loi anti-briseurs de grève copiée sur celle en vigueur au Québec.

Cet été, les auditeurs de la tribune téléphonique de Bill Rowe, à la radio Voice of the Common Man, débattaient de la possibilité de limoger les sept députés fédéraux de l'île (quatre bleus, trois rouges) et de créer un bloc terre-neuvien pour les remplacer... " Il y a un fort courant nationaliste ici en ce moment, dit Bill Rowe. Si nous étions plus nombreux, nous serions une menace plus sérieuse à l'unité nationale que le Québec ne l'a jamais été. "

Le sentiment d'être une société distincte, l'impression que les Terre-Neuviens ont été roulés par le Canada central et la tentation de la revanche, le tout mâtiné d'un vague rêve d'indépendance : voilà les puits de pétrole politique auxquels carbure Danny Williams.

Terre-Neuve a abdiqué son indépendance à la suite d'un référendum serré et contesté, en 1949. Selon les tenants du Oui, se joindre au Canada allait permettre à cette île pauvre et isolée de découvrir l'eldorado. Mais la génération née après cette union a vite déchanté.

Au début des années 1970, la comédienne Mary Walsh a fait comme bien d'autres jeunes dégourdis de Terre-Neuve : elle a quitté son bled aux horizons et aux ressources limités et a émigré à Toronto, pour étudier et travailler. C'est depuis l'Ontario qu'elle a contribué à donner corps à la révolution culturelle terre-neuvienne. Avec d'autres copains, expatriés comme elle, elle a lancé Codco (pour Cod Company : Morue inc.), troupe de théâtre vite reconnue pour son humour décapant et ses satires sociales et politiques assassines. "On se moquait de la façon dont les Canadiens se moquaient des Newfies à l'époque. C'était comme un exorcisme. "

Mary Walsh est devenue une vedette de la CBC et est retournée, à 52 ans, vivre à St. John's, dans une grande maison de bois au fond d'une cour ombragée. Pour comprendre ce qui se passe en ce moment, il faut savoir d'où nous venons, dit-elle. " Avant, les gens étaient davantage désireux de contrôler leur propre destinée que de s'enrichir. Ils étaient installés au fond de petites baies, en communautés isolées, coupées du monde. Les Terre-Neuviens avaient un esprit de survie, de survivance opiniâtre. On n'a jamais été "au-dessus de nos affaires ", ici.

On n'a jamais vraiment eu d'âge d'or, même lorsqu'on était indépendants. Ce que je perçois maintenant, c'est que comme nation on a fait une longue série de mauvaises affaires, dit Mary Walsh. On a donné l'électricité, donné le pétrole, sans se soucier des redevances ni de garder le contrôle, trop contents qu'on était d'avoir des emplois dans la construction, et on a laissé tout le monde épuiser les bancs de morue. On a investi dans des trucs qui ont foiré, laissé le fédéral fermer le chemin de fer. On s'est fait avoir de tellement de façons... "

Danny Williams est un héros chez lui parce qu'il dit, justement : " No more Mr. Nice Guy " (fini les courbettes). " Ce qu'on dit maintenant, c'est : " Ne signons plus jamais de mauvaises ententes. Ne dilapidons plus nos ressources, essayons d'en tirer un maximum et d'y voir plus clair. " Cela ne me semble pas déraisonnable ", conclut Mary Walsh.

Craig Westcott, propriétaire et éditeur du Business Post, à St. John's, explique que pour beaucoup, telle Mary Walsh, la perte de l'indépendance nationale a été comme un voyage interrompu. " Ce serait une expérience intéressante de reprendre ce voyage et de voir comment on s'en sortirait. Cependant, je ne voudrais pas le faire avec un gars comme Williams au pouvoir ; ce serait beaucoup trop dangereux. "

Les gens d'affaires commencent tout juste à s'habituer à la nouvelle prospérité que le pétrole marin, ses redevances et ses industries dérivées ont apportée à la région de St. John's une ville plus ancienne que Québec, mais qui n'a jamais été plus qu'un gros port de pêche... quand il restait encore du poisson dans la mer. Ils sont aujourd'hui très inquiets de voir le premier ministre traiter les grandes sociétés pétrolières, le gouvernement fédéral ou des alliés aussi costauds qu'Hydro-Québec de manière si cavalière. " Mais ils n'osent le dire publiquement, dit Craig Westcott. Ils ont peur. "

"Peur de quoi, au juste ? " Des représailles. Williams supporte très mal la critique. Dans un endroit comme ici, impossible de faire du business sans devoir traiter avec le gouvernement un jour ou l'autre. Tu ne veux pas être sur sa liste noire. "

Un homme d'affaires proche de l'industrie pétrolière et qui ne veut pas être nommé dit la même chose : " Williams est un microgestionnaire, un politicien à l'ancienne mode, un peu despote, comme ils l'ont toujours été ici depuis Joey Smallwood. Tous les dossiers passent par son bureau, il est au courant de tout et n'oublie rien. "

Ed Hollett travaillait au bureau de Clyde Wells au début des années 1990, quand ce dernier était premier ministre. Hollett est aujourd'hui conseiller en communications et stratégies à St. John's. Il ne croit pas au séparatisme terre-neuvien. " Il n'y a pas de société civile, pas de parti politique, pas de mouvement de masse comme au Québec pour soutenir et alimenter un tel projet. " Cependant, Hollett voit poindre la révolution terre-neuvienne. " D'ici quelques années, la province la plus pauvre du pays rejoindra le club sélect de celles qui paient de la péréquation au lieu d'en recevoir. Cela aura un effet majeur sur l'équilibre des forces au pays qui se maintient toujours dans le triangle Toronto-Ottawa-Montréal. "

Hollett voit très bien Terre-Neuve prendre la tête d'une "force atlantique" qui opérera le rééquilibrage des forces au pays "ce dont les Albertains rêvent aussi, mais qu'ils n'ont pas été capables de réussir, parce qu'ils sont trop... insulaires, justement".

Un tout nouveau newfie power est-il en train d'émerger ? "Depuis le temps que les Terre-Neuviens émigrent, on en trouve partout au Canada, souvent à des postes importants, dit Ed Hollett. Ils ne vont pas se séparer, ils feront plutôt sentir leur présence."

C'est donc cela. L'argent du pétrole permettra à Terre-Neuve de s'affirmer davantage au sein du Canada plutôt que de s'en séparer. Une minorité qui fait sentir sa présence et qui réclame des changements dans la gouvernance du pays ? Le Québec a fait des émules, il faut croire. Désormais, il n'est plus seul dans sa dispute avec le Rest of Canada.

-srbp-

Le pétrole de la discorde
Terre-Neuve veut le beurre et l'argent du beurre !

La province la plus pauvre du Canada roule-t-elle sur l'or ? Il y a tout plein de nouveaux restaurants, de petites boutiques chics, de nouveaux édifices rutilants et d'autos neuves dans les rues pittoresques de St. John's (180 000 habitants). Les revenus du gouvernement provincial ont augmenté de 10 % en 2006, lui permettant de baisser les impôts et de commencer à rembourser la dette. Le budget préélectoral de ce printemps regorgeait de généreuses allocations pour des trucs qui plaisent à l'électorat : la santé, l'éducation, la création d'emplois.

Cette abondance vient principalement du pétrole marin que les Terre-Neuviens sont par ailleurs convaincus d'avoir laissé à vil prix aux pétrolières. Jim Flaherty, ministre fédéral des Finances, prévoit que Terre-Neuve fera son entrée dans le club sélect des provinces riches qui donnent de la péréquation au lieu d'en recevoir d'ici deux
ans. Présentement, les transferts du gouvernement fédéral représentent 30 % des six milliards de dollars de revenus du gouvernement de Terre-Neuve.

Cela fait bondir Danny Williams. Il est furieux parce qu'Ottawa avait promis de ne plus inclure les redevances du pétrole dans le calcul de la péréquation, promesse sur laquelle Stephen Harper est revenu dans le dernier budget fédéral.

"Dans le reste du pays, on voit Terre-Neuve comme une province qui veut avoir la péréquation et les revenus du pétrole, mais ici, on ne voit que la promesse non tenue du fédéral ", explique Geoff Meeker, spécialiste des communications proche de l'industrie du pétrole.

Il y a actuellement trois champs pétrolifères (Hibernia, Terra Nova et White Rose) en exploitation au large de l'île. La mise en route d'un quatrième champ, Hebron, le plus grand, est compromise maintenant que Williams demande, au nom de sa province, une participation de 5% au capital de l'entreprise. Les négociations sont au point mort.

"Le pétrole a enrichi le gouvernement et les gens de St. John's, mais pas Terre-Neuve ni les autres Terre-Neuviens ", dit Lorraine Michael, députée NPD. Le taux de chômage est à 13 %, et 51 % seulement des personnes en âge de travailler ont un emploi les petits villages côtiers se dépeuplent, les jeunes partant chercher du travail en Ontario et en Alberta.

Terre-Neuve a rarement eu le gros bout du bâton dans ses négociations avec le Canada central et la grande entreprise. Les partisans de Danny Williams ne voient que les bénéfices accrus qu'il promet à sa province. Mais des investisseurs plus prudents s'inquiètent des risques que ses fanfaronnades font courir à la fragile économie terre-neuvienne. L'exploitation d'une importante mine de nickel à Voisey Bay a été retardée pendant près de 10 ans par une chicane sur la construction d'une raffinerie. L'aménagement des chutes Churchill fait l'objet de difficiles discussions avec Hydro-Québec. Au 10e anniversaire du moratoire sur la pêche à la morue, les stocks de poissons dans la mer sont au plus bas. Avec l'avenir, maintenant incertain, de l'exploitation pétrolière, on comprend Danny Williams de tenir mordicus aux paiements de péréquation. Un tiens vaut mieux que deux tu l'auras...

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Tony Blair Sings The Clash!

Brilliant!

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Musical Interlude

The Vltava (Smetana) (Two vids for the full piece)

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Swedish FM in blog controversy

Prosecutors are investigating to determine if comments made by a reader of Swedish foreign minister Carl Bildt's blog constitute a breach of a Swedish law that holds blog authors responsible for the contents of their site.

One of the comments being investigated called Palestinians 'spawn of Satan,' while another called them 'a bloody pack of murderers.' In one comment, a reader said: 'give us 24 hours and all Palestinians will be gone, and we'll have 100 percent of Israel.'

Chancellor of Justice Göran Lambertz, one of Sweden's most senior legal officials, is usually charged with prosecuting cases involving people's constitutional right to freedom of speech.

He ruled, however, that Bildt's blog was not covered by those sections of the constitution regarding free speech, meaning that police and prosecutors were able to take up the case.

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(h/t to Media Culpa, which includes links to Bildt's blog and other sources - in Swedish.)

Update: here's the link to Media Culpa with a new URL)

From the Worst Kept Secret file...

Danny Williams will visit the Lieutenant Governor on September 17 to seek a proclamation of the fall election on October 9.

Remember that date.

Monday.

September

17.

Two weeks from today.

Williams told reporters that date last week.

Call Elections NL and that's the date they will tell you.

They will also tell you people have been casting votes already.

Yes, people, the election started two weeks ago.

That's what makes the whole thing increasingly farcical.

Farcical, as in idiotic, as in having the House of Assembly management committee boasting it had stopped members of the House from using their allowances during the election period.

Problem 1: There are no members of the House of Assembly one the election proclamation is issued and the House is dissolved and the seats are vacated.

Do they think we are stupid or are they that stunned?

Problem 2: The election has been on all summer, what with the Premier and his Winnebago running around dispensing public cash to anyone with their hand stuck out. The House management committee - including three of the cabinet ministers who approved the Summer of Love spending spree - knows full well that what they announced amounts to the old limerick about some guy named Paul's hexagonal sphere.

Problem 3: Even if that weren't true, voting started on August 20. The fantasy restriction doesn't start until 17 September. Big freakin' deal.

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Placentia Bay gets the crabs: more proof of the evils of Confederation

It's only a matter of time before someone in Newfoundland (Labrador seems not to generate the conspiracy-minded) holds out the story of the European green crab as yet more proof that we suffer on the rack of Confederation.

See, obviously, if Newfoundland was an independent country - so the argument will likely go - these crabs would have been detected and eliminated long before they showed up in Placentia Bay.

Well, either that or the crabs are able to invade the rich fishing grounds of Placentia Bay due entirely to the neglect, indifference and stupidity of the federal fisheries department. Not like we haven't heard a variation on that theme before.

Some might even suppose the "nasty little critters" are being encouraged - if they weren't actually introduced here by a fisheries patrol boat in the first place - in order to destroy the fishery and help keep the poor benighted people of Newfoundland in a position of perpetual servitude to Ottawa and its evil minions.

You see, it's like "The Titanic" (h/t to daimnation)

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Creativity dots

John Gushue maintains one of the most intellectually stimulating blogs on the go anywhere.

Ok.

That is a bit gushy and over-the-top, but check out Dot Dot Dot and you'll be hard-pressed not to agree it is filled with an eclectic mix of...well...just about anything and everything. And it's all intriguing

This past week, John paid tribute to local broadcaster John O'Mara, who passed away at far too early an age. John's post is simple, touching and reflective of the views of anyone who knew John O'Mara even casually.

What really caught the eye this week, though were two posts on commercials produced for Cadbury and Honda. The Cadbury spot is part of a new campaign in the UK and to paraphrase John's description, it features a gorilla, a drum kit and a Phil Collins song just about everyone under the age of 50 can relate to. Rather than embed the video, just follow the link to John's space and read his comments. The vid is embedded there.

Ditto for an inspiring spot for Honda that cost millions, took three months to put together and involved 606 complete takes. 605 were a bust. The last one was a keeper.

As a last bit for this post, we've posted links before to ads for the Sony Bravia built on the tag "Colour like.no.other." The versions in that link are inferior to the Sony websites linked in the paragraphs below.

The first was titled simply "Balls". it involved 250,000 high-bounce balls of various colours unleashed down a set of streets in San Francisco.

The second was "Paint". An abandoned housing project in Glasgow, a few tens of tons of paint of different colours and some carefully timed explosions provide a visually breathtaking spot.

The third, being shot in New York, involves:

2.5 tones of plasticine on set
40 animators
3 weeks
189 2 ft bunnies
150 1 ft cubes
10ft x20 ft purple wave
30ft giant rabbit.
6 cameras.
40 animators working through 4 hours generated 4 seconds of footage.
40 animators working on the same scene had never been attempted before.
The 60 second spot will be constructed of approximately 100,000 stills.

The picture at left shows some of the rabbits under construction.

No video yet but if the "Bunnies" live up to "Paint" and "Balls", then hang on to your eyeballs.

And ya wanna know the really odd thing? The local Sony Store does not have either of these spots in any form or format to show on their Bravias as a way of demonstrating that it is colour like no other.

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