Family Feud Week 2: Hit early, hit often; Williams starts polling; none of the usual suspects to run for Connies in St. John's East

Last week's smack from the federal Conservatives against their Provincial Conservative brethren sent the Premier off to poll his caucus to confirm everyone would support his promise to campaign against the federal Conservative party.

It was a classic example of using solid information to hit hard against a political foe in a way designed to strike at the foe's weakness.

After his quickie check over his shoulder by e-mail, the Premier found out that one of his caucus mates would abstain from the Feud.

Abstain?  What an odd word.

At the end of the week, outgoing fisheries minister Loyola Hearn took a few more swipes at Williams and his cabinet all of which no doubt heightened tensions considerably.

But if all that weren't enough, the federal Conservatives are claiming on Sunday that the Provincial Conservatives are polling on the Family Feud.  Conservative spokesman Steve Outhouse released the questions gleaned from one person who says she was surveyed. The whole thing is at Geoff Meeker's blog, Meeker on Media.

On top of that, Outhouse follows up with a new twist:  third party campaigning has to be reported to Elections Canada.

“As you know, Elections Canada has rules – and I don’t know them inside and out – that limit and require people to report what third parties are spending on a campaign. If ABC is moving past a philosophy or slogan and into an actual campaign, where money is being spent and polling is being done, with the specific intent to defeat a political party, just like a union or special interest group, all that information would need to be registered with Elections Canada.”

In the second week of campaigning, the Premier is evidently well behind in terms of his planning and definitely off track as far as Family Feud messaging is concerned.

No attacks.

Just defence.

On Monday, he'll be defending on the polling issue, facing questions of his caucus about which one isn't on board with the Feud and he'll also be fending off questions about the name of the new candidate in St. John's East.

The name, apparently, is not any of the ones bandied around so far.  That takes Rideout, Sullivan, Beth Marshall and Terry French out of play.

There'll likely be references to threats being made to deter other candidates, which the Premier will deny with his stock line:  "nothing could be further from the truth." 

Unfortunately for him, that's one of those phrases that just screams the opposite of what the words say.  The more he uses it, the worse it sounds.  And he'll have to keep using it unless and until he actually starts campaigning;  well, if he starts campaigning and that will be determined by the polling numbers.

It's really curious that polling has only started at this point rather than some weeks ago. Asking people if they've heard of the anti-Harper campaign? 

It would appear more bizarre that Williams would be feeling the waters to see if he should campaign across the country:  he's already committed to do just that.

Just think back, though and you can see a familiar pattern re-emerging.

Williams likes to test the waters before he jumps in on major political projects like this.  Like late 2004. Williams hauled down Canadian flags and then was taken aback by the spontaneous and angry response he received. 

A hasty poll - done by Ryan Research - showed that even with the questions and suggested responses skewed to push a Williams-favourable answer, the flag thing pissed off people everywhere across the country, including Newfoundland and Labrador.

Williams' public messaging on the flags shifted too, softening as more and more angry e-mails and letters poured in.  He got the polling data and poof, the flags went up without anything approaching the commitment he demanded the day they came down. He passed it off as a grand gesture at the time, but the reality was revealed in documents obtained by the Telegram through open records laws. 

In Newfoundland and Labrador 38% were completely supportive and 29% were not supportive at all. With a margin of error of almost five percent, those figures could be 33% completely supportive and 34% completely unsupportive. Those results were available to the Premier possibly as early as January 6 and may have prompted his admission to news media on January 7 that the flag issue had cost him support. Even at home, as Williams may well have known, his flag flap was a loser at worst, a distraction at best.

There is no way of knowing for sure, but it is interesting the coincidence that this polling was completed nationally on January 9 and that Premier Williams ordered flags raised on January 10. The move surprised everyone, coming, as it did, in the midst of a news conference to announce a call for expressions of interest in developing the Lower Churchill.

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Fear and loathing on the campaign trail, Labrador version

Federal fish minister Loyola Hearn couldn't help but try some old-fashioned politicking.  He took a swipe at a provincial cabinet minister - calling the guy an idiot - and accusing the Liberal member of parliament of being negative. As Hearn put it in a Telegram interview:

When discussing that region's issues, the outgoing federal Fisheries minister said the people there, especially in Goose Bay, have to learn to help themselves, which he said they haven't done at the polls.

"They have an idiot for a provincial member (of the House of Assembly) who just goes out there yelling and bawling (and) doesn't have a clue about what he's talking about. They sent a federal member to Ottawa
who's left no impression except to be negative and sarcastic," said Hearn, MP for St. John's South-Mount Pearl.

Okay, we can see that Hearn loathes his political opponents, especially those within his own party but what's this help themselves stuff?

Maybe some fear mongering that links voting and political pork.

Gee, it's not like voters in Newfoundland and Labrador haven't heard that stuff before.

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The Sunday scuttlebutt

If the rumours aren't worth following then the truth is sometimes much stranger than fiction.

1.   Loyola Sullivan is now reportedly out of the country and not taking Harper's phone calls. The only thing funnier than rumours are Connie candidate travails are the ones about the Dipper hunts. 

2.   Former newspaper editor (his last horse died under him twice)  Ryan Cleary is looking for the NDP nod in St. John's South Mount Pearl.  This could make the South interesting if for no other reason than Cleary would likely quickly start whining as reporters started giving him a dose of the stuff he's dished out.  The guy's shown himself to have a thin skin. 

3.  A close reading of the Danny Williams e-mail from earlier the week would make you think that all the Provincial Conservatives had to do was state their support for the government ABC campaign without any obligation to campaign for anybody but Conservatives.  That pretty much clinches it:  there is such dissension within caucus that even the Premier couldn't force his colleagues to join the fratricidal policy without risking his own political neck.

4.  Even if we aren't going to see natural resources spokesperson Kathy Dudnerdale - a great typo from voice of the cabinet minister last week - knocking doors for Walter Noel, savvy federal Liberal fundraisers have it covered.

Some were reportedly thinking of sending donation requests to the 44 Provincial Conservatives in the House of Assembly with a promise to send a copy of the tax receipt to the Premier as proof they've acted on their commitment to ABC. 

If the Tories would send over their membership list, the Liberals will probably ensure everyone one of the Provincial Conservatives is on side.

5.  Liberal Siobhan Coady will be taking full advantage of the ABC this time out, turning for the third time running to a connected advertising firm to look after her campaign needs. Idea Factory has been the source of provincial Tory campaign advertising for a while now and recently added former Mike Harris and Danny Williams government staffer Carolyn Chaplin to its stable of considerable talent.

6.  Some Ottawa political staffers got a chuckle out of Danny Williams' reference to the Blue Shaft, given that it's also the nick-name of a fairly popular sexual device. They got a bigger chuckle out of the Harper "Daddy" ads but for a different reason. Some are watching to see if bears pop up next in the Connie ad campaign. 

7.  From the "Separated at Birth" file, both Danny Williams and Stephen Harper said this week they expect to be on the receiving end of vicious personal attacks during the upcoming campaign. Okay, those of you keeping track of how much these two are alike just ran out of paper.  Switch to a computer where the pixels are free and the space for storing data is almost endless.

8.  Speaking of vicious personal attacks, surely Provincial Conservative cabinet minister John Hickey - a man who's campaigned for the federal Conservatives at least once - is thinking of suing outgoing fish minister Loyola Hearn for defamation.  In a recent interview, Hearn called Hickey an "idiot". 

Hickey has a lawsuit against former Premier Roger Grimes for things Danny Williams said Grimes said but apparently didn't.  Confused?  So was Hickey.  But if you sued over something someone didn't say, surely you'd be fast off the litigious mark for a pretty obvious insult hurled straight at you, for the whole world to read.

And where is that lawsuit?  Likely right next to the contract with federal government to pave the Trans Labrador Highway.

9.  Provincial Conservative Cynthia Downey ran for the federal Conservatives in the last election, once the Provincial Conservatives decided to wholeheartedly endorse their federal brethren.  For her troubles, Downey found her campaign wrapped up in the Old In-Out In-Out scheme (scam?).

Fast forward to 2008 and with her provincial leader on the Family Feud warpath, Downey is dutifully joining in, savaging the federal Conservatives for doing things like booting people out of the country after their refugee applications have been rejected.

Check the party platform Downey back last time on deportations.

Right there in black and white: "rapid execution" of deportation orders.

And on a related matter, help and old e-scribbler out here:  who used to call the Great Oracle of the Valley's talk shows about the Portnoys?

10.  And they have it on tape, most likely. How many more quotes like this are out there?

"I think Atlantic Canadians are going to be very pleasantly surprised and pleased with the performance of Mr. Harper," said Williams.

The provincial aspect of the last federal election campaign was rather curious, especially considering that the version offered in the CBC summary linked here isn't quite in keeping with events as they unfolded. 

Williams may have kept a relatively low profile for example, but his cabinet and caucus were out there flogging CAA:  Connie Above All.  And Jack Layton?  Santa Jack promised everything the Premier desired;  Santa Steve promised to talk about it.

Steve got the Provincial Conservative support.

Yeah, and this whole ABC thing isn't a Family Feud.

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The Rhodes to Perdition

In his Globe column on Stephen Harper this first campaign weekend, Rex Murphy demonstrates an ability to observe but not see.

Murphy begins with a description of the television ads currently running:

They're from a series of seven, titled "At home with Stephen Harper." And very gentle, soft, fuzzy little minuets they are. In the jargon of PR, they try to "humanize" the Prime Minister.

He then writes:

Well, he's been running the country now for a bit more than 2½ years. We've seen him in the House. We've seen him at press conferences. We've seen him on his good days and on his bad. And the cumulative impression we have of him is already fixed.

and then proceeds to a glowing description of the Prime Minister:

For all his angularity, occasional harshness and remoteness, Canadians recognize him as a leader. They see him, in the main, as competent and determined. They are not embarrassed when he goes abroad. They know he has intelligence to spare. And despite his chilliness of manner (which I expect is as much a product of shyness as arrogance), he's a decent man who loves his country. For good or ill, that's the package - and in the campaign about to unfold, from the Conservatives' perspective, it's mainly for the good.

While noting that he does not agree with the "premise" of the television ads designed to "humanize" Harper, as Murphy puts it, Murphy is prepared to list the qualities we know and pronounce them as placing Harper well ahead of the other party leaders, particularly Stephan Dion.

Murphy's observation may well be accurate in the long run; Harper and his party may well win the election.

What he does not see - or at least does not show signs of seeing  - is that Murphy, like Canadians across the country, has not seen Stephen Harper at all.

We have observed the premise of Stephen Harper. We get the assumption on which we are supposed to base our vote.

That is,  we watch minuets,  to use Murphy's word:  carefully scripted dances.

We have observed that this Prime Minister is visible outside those carefully contrived moments as we have of Dion, Layton and other political leaders in Canada current and former.

As a Canadian who lives at one end of the country but who is no less removed from the mainstream of national media as anyone living in Toronto, your humble e-scribbler cannot recall anything of Harper that was not scripted.

Managed.

Contrived.

As with the television ads, fake.

It is that inherent sense of falseness  - designed not by public relations people as Murphy states but advertising types - that Murphy and others ought to find unsettling.

Murphy forgets the great set-to between the parliamentary press gallery and the Prime Minister's Office on the point of control. it was about nothing more than establishing tight and unrelenting control over what snippets of Stephen Harper Canadians are allowed to see.

Harper won that tussle as he inevitably would and from the moment he took office, Stephen Harper has presented to the world only that much of himself and his government as fits the premise to be presented; nothing more and far, far less than we are used to or that we deserve. Rather than reducing the "Daddy" ads to a mere passing point, Murphy could more accurately have said that they are yet another element in a diligently mapped plan to gain power and to exercise that power to do something. 

The "something" unfortunately has not been approved for disclosure. We are not allowed to vote on what Harper will do, only on the pretty pictures all posed with precision. We are to assume it, and risk the dangers that go with every unchallenged assumption.

One of the hallmarks of leadership  - a word Murphy uses but does not define - is the ability to inspire men and women to attain a goal.  Barack Obama inspires.  He is able to describe in simple words the hopes and aspirations of millions of Americans in a way that invites them along on a journey.  He is seen, at ease, in the company of others and even alone on a stage amid tens of thousands of cheering Americans already committed to his political party, he seems to reach past the physical distance between himself and others.

Stephen Harper does not inspire.  His cold, aloof manner is not a virtue in this regard, as much as Murphy seems to think it does. It is a barrier between him and others.  It is a barrier that Harper's script writers are evidently conscious of and worried about. If they were not, they would not have come up with the ads featuring actors reading words written by others in an effort to "humanize" Harper.  They would not present Harper himself mouthing words. If they were not uneasy about Harper they would not have had someone pick precisely the right clothes in exactly the right shades of blue to convey exactly the picture they wished to others to see.  They would not have paid someone to cut and style his hair into a gray helmet that, if nothing else, looks right for whatever impression they desired to leave.

Obama, like all political leaders since the 1960s, is no less surrounded by the handlers, hairdressers, and writers;  it is just that we cannot see with him as obviously as we see with Harper the signs of their manipulations. The one is a skilled craft that is merely aimed at presenting a clear picture of the man. The elegance of their work is that is not evident. One suspects it is not evident because they are able to let the man speak for himself without worrying about the impression.

With Harper, we can see every pixel.

We see every line.

Every line pointing somewhere.

But we are not allowed to know - and during the campaign the managers will work hardest of all to ensure - that we do not know where those lines really point.

Perhaps from Toronto, Rex Murphy is too close to the screen to tell what road it is showing.

 

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An abuse of our men and women in uniform

The federal Conservatives gave Canadians a lesson in Halifax yesterday, a lesson most of them likely didn't want.

A group of Second World War veterans were trotted before the cameras alongside Peter Mackay, the national defence minister as props in a campaign announcement.

The lesson was Manipulation, Cynicism and Crassness 101.

Ostensibly they were there to announce that the Halifax Rifles - a disbanded militia unit - would be reactivated.  The veterans had fought with the Canadian Forces during the Second World War, many of them receiving their initial training with the Rifles.

But here's the thing:

No one knows what this unit will do.

No one knows where the soldiers for this unit will come from.

No one knows where they will train.

In short, there is no Halifax Rifles, any more than there are the various battalions of soldiers promised by the Conservatives to any town and city in the country that wanted one.

The regional commander of the army stated the problems, albeit in the guise of making it sound like this was a good thing that the army was squarely behind:

Simply getting people to join will "be a challenge because there’s a lot of demand on reserve (units for) folks that are very, very good," he said.

"Both industry here as well as the Canadian Forces and all the other units are going to be competing for the same quality folks. . . . That’s why it’s going to take a little bit of time to actually stand up the unit and get the folks in there."

He expects it will take three or four years to fully re-establish the regiment.

You see the Friends of the Halifax Rifles have been lobbying for years to recreate the Rifles.  They've worked every room they can to get the name back on a uniform.  They are well-intentioned and sincere with a justifiably love of their former unit and desire to see their own cherished memories continued.

But up to now both the Canadian Forces and the politicians who over see the military have understood that we cannot create military units for what essentially amounts to sentimental reasons. 

The military cannot and should not be used for anything other than the reasons we have soldiers, sailors and aircrew.  They don't exist to proper up failing local economies.  And they don't exist in the active military force to serve - essentially - as living relics of another time, looking good on parade, chewing up scarce cash and human resources and no really contributing anything to the defence of Canada.

There is a fine reserve infantry unit in Halifax already, one that has to work hard to keeps its ranks full.  It's not so different from the other reserve units for the army, navy, and air force in Halifax and the surrounding areas or anywhere else in the country in that respect.  All of them have well defined missions and they are set up within areas where the competition for talent is already fierce.  They recruit hard and they train hard all year long to do a job. Adding another reserve unit doesn't increase the capability in the area;  it just sets the military to competing with itself for people. 

At one point, the Friends were suggesting that the Rifles could be a reconnaissance unit, an idea that appears in this latest announcement.  What they had in mind at one point was buying a whole bunch of civilian type jeeps.  Soldiers would spend their training time bombing around the coasts of Nova Scotia keeping an eye out - on the weekends only, of course - for enemy submarines or smugglers.  All wonderful ideas a half century ago but all hopelessly out of touch with the current reality.

What makes this announcement crass, cynical and manipulative is that people involved in the announcement on the government side know there is very likelihood the promise will ever come to light. National Defence has already been through the debate between the professional military and the amateurs and wannabes who came into office a couple of years ago over where the Canadian Forces should put its priority for the defence of Canada.  The whole episode wasted valuable time and chewed up valuable cash resources for absolutely nothing except to show seeds of confusion in some cases.  Thankfully that was short-lived.

There will be no Halifax Rifles in four years times just as there will be no rapid reaction battalion in Goose Bay or any of the other hare-brained schemes cooked up in Conservative backrooms to fool just enough naive voters to get the party elected.

In this case, a group of very sincere and well meaning men have been taken advantage of.  They are proud of their service to the country and Canadians should be respectful of them.

Instead, the defence minister has done little more than stick a "Kick Me" sign on their backs.  He could easily have stuck bunny ears up behind their heads for the cameras and been every bit in keeping with the substance of his announcement.

He certainly couldn't have been more disrespectful or abused them - and us - in any greater way.

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Shaping political attitudes

The quarterly CRA promotional poll hit the streets today and it's interesting to see, among other things, one rather curious difference between the numbers as reported and the corrected figures.

Search Bond Papers and you'll find plenty of commentary on these quarterly surveys and they way they are misused and misinterpreted by all sorts of commentators in the province.  Last spring, for example, we looked at the discrepancy between the polling numbers and the actual election result a year ago.

As for the misused and misinterpreted, one need only look at the Great Oracle of the Valley, a.k.a. voice of the cabinet minister, which headlines its online story Williams and His Government as Popular as Ever: Survey.

As popular as ever?

Not even close.

Corporate Research Associates likes to report its results as a percentage of decided respondents.  That is, when figuring out the numbers they report, they drop out the undecided people and those who gave no response and then recalculate the percentages using only the rest.

The most obvious effect of this approach is that it inflates the number, as you can plainly see in the chart at left. Over the last year, the difference between the reported result for the Provincial Conservatives and the corrected result (as percentage of total respondents reported) has been between 13 to 15 percentage points. 

In the latest poll, the difference is 17 points.

The effect of this inflation is no where near as dramatic for the opposition parties where the difference between one number and the other is only a couple of percentage points.

Bear in mind, of course, that distortion from reporting as percentage of "decideds" is on top of the distortion evident from comparing the poll results and election results last fall.  That variance was potentially upwards of 20 percentage points on its own.

The other distortion can only be seen when you actually take the time to correct the figures. Rather than seeing a political party which is every bit as popular today as it was six months ago - as the Oracle reported -  there's apparently been a fairly steady decline in support for the Provincial Conservative party.

Now the decline is not any sign of impending collapse but stop and think about it for a second.  News reports which state that the government retains its high popularity are strictly accurate:  government remains extremely popular.  But such reports miss the actual result.

The fault here lies not with reporters and editors in the handful of newsrooms covering the province.  How many of them have the time to flick their calculators on and make the adjustments?  How many of them would be able to report adjusted figures - as opposed to simply reporting the expert's results - without running the risk of accusations that they were biased or unqualified to change what they had been handed?  How many have the time in the course of a busy day to find a polling expert who could legitimately provide a different interpretation, again with the risk that such action would be criticized as "biased"?  Since there is no polling readily available to contradict the CRA results, on what basis would they ethically pursue an alternate interpretation in the first place?

What we are left with is  a situation in which reporters relay the information they have.

Consider the impact that this situation may have on public opinion. With everyone reporting huge popularity for the governing party that doesn't seem to vary over time, it's not to hard to imagine people who disagree with the government feeling isolated.  After all, anyone not feeling too favourably disposed to the government party generally or on a single issue and just catching these numbers quickly would think that he or she is merely one in 18 or 20.  In reality, they are almost one in 40, if we allow that the so-called undecideds are not favourably disposed either but, for the most part, they would not know that.

There is a fairly large body of social psychological research since the end of the Second World War on notion of conformity.  That is the idea that individuals will tend to adjust their stated opinions and their behaviour to conform with a real or perceived standard.

And we don't really need to get too deeply into the phenomenon of conformity to pose the notion that CRA polls aren't really measuring public opinion accurately any more.  In fact, there is a good reason to suggest that these polls have become - in effect  - part of an effort to shape public opinion. 

While it was once dismissed, the notion of poll goosing now appears to be generally accepted.  Recent revelations suggest the government employs a tightly managed system of information release both to coincide with polling periods and, in some instances, to bury unfavourable news. Those who have critical opinions report being advised by politicians and senior government officials to keep silent. Some, such members of as the offshore industry association, have been subjected to public attacks.  Others have been threatened with legal action.

The Premier himself comments regularly on his own concern with counter-acting what he calls "counter-spinning negativity".  That is, by his own accounts, he spends considerable energy coping with opinions that differ from the official government position.

We saw a classic example this week of the effort to enforce conformity. An accusation that some members of his own caucus may not support the Anybody But Conservative campaign is met with an e-mail that, while it claims there will be no repercussions for dissent, then demands a statement in writing as to whether "you support the government's position against the Harper government or if you support the Harper government". The e-mail uses the word "team" which suggests, in itself, the notion of suppressing individual views and actions in favour of a conformal position. The e-mail, incidentally, is not the first time, the Premier has emphasized conformity from his caucus.

There are indications of the conformity phenomenon outside the government caucus as well.  Consider the number of people calling open line programs or leaving comments on local news web sites who feel the need to preface their criticism of government with some variation of the phrase "Now I support the Premier as much as anyone, but...". On the face of it, that sort of phrasing suggests a perception of a social norm which must be acknowledged first in order to make acceptable the expression of an opinion. 

None of this is conclusive and the language is deliberately conditional.  That is because the notion of conformity and public opinion in Newfoundland and Labrador would require a far more detailed study than can be offered in this space. Nonetheless, there are  reasons to believe that the only public opinion polls in the province available to the public are inaccurate and that, in a larger sense, they actually serve inadvertently as part of a wider effort to shape public opinion in a sophisticated and integrated fashion.

In the context of the current federal election campaign, an accurate interpretation of events may depend as much as anything else on appreciating the difference between the only poll known to the public and the others available only to some of the political parties.

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Humber Valley Resort gets 30 day creditor protection

The owners of Humber Valley Resort sought and obtained court protection for at least 30 days in order to develop a financial reorganization plan to creditors.

Only three weeks ago, the resort owners announced a major restructuring.

The resort owners are reportedly in discussions with government, as they have been apparently since last year, seeking some form of government financial support.

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Family Feud: another angle

So which Provincial Conservatives are gonna sign on to this campaign?

The premier's apparently got answers from all his caucus and only one is abstaining from any involvement.

 

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Family Feud: the silverback swipes again

A federal Conservative statement hot off the e-mail:

Minister Hearn Challenges Premier Williams To Allow Caucus to Campaign for Conservatives

The Honourable Loyola Hearn, Minister of Fisheries and Oceans and Minister Responsible for Newfoundland and Labrador, today issued the following statement:

Today Premier Williams said he would not threaten any MHAs to adopt his position of ABC in the next federal campaign.

My comments in local media were based on a growing number of calls we have received from concerned caucus members and Progressive Conservative staffers who used exactly that that phrase.  They felt there was a clear expectation that they needed to publicly campaign for ABC, even if they didn't agree with it, or there was a threat to their career advancement within the Williams government.

If the Premier's statement is true, and he wishes to let democracy take its course, will he send another e-mail to his caucus and clarify that there is no threat?  Will he tell them he means it when he says members are free to do whatever they believe is in the best interests of their districts -- even if that means campaigning for Conservative candidates at the federal level?

If there is no threat, will the Premier commit publicly that there will be no action taken against MHAs who choose to volunteer for Conservative Party of Canada?

He can put this issue to rest by sending another memo to caucus right away.

As your humble e-scribbler already maintained, Hearn is a scrappy silverback politician.  Experienced, used to being dominant, savvy and fully of inherent political strength just like the biggest gorilla in a family group.

He'll tolerate nonsense for a while but at some point he'll be ready to rip apart any challenger.

Hearn's been working the local media this Friday before the writ drops and his language is designed to go right at the heart of the so-called ABC campaign.

With the comment on leaks a couple of days ago, Hearn and his federal Conservative brethren have already shown they know how to campaign hard when they need to and, in the caucus leak story, set the other guys to constantly responding instead of setting the agenda.  Hearn's release today will increase the pressure and counts as another shift in the political agenda.

If this campaign keeps going with the same intensity, the repercussions will be felt in provincial politics.

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Friday election round-up

1.  The latest political scuttlebutt has Loyola Sullivan out of the country and not taking the Prime Minister's calls. As it stands now, incumbent Avalon member of parliament Fabian Manning is the only federal Conservative with any profile standing for election in the province in the fall general election.

2.  Former newspaper editor Ryan Cleary and Sierra Club activist Fred Winsor will be squaring off for the New Democrat nomination in St. John's South-Mount Pearl.

3.  For those wondering about the Liberals, all their candidates are in place.

4.  From the "Nothing spells election..." file, nothing can keep politicians from announcing public cash, not even an ABCDLMNOPQ Family Feud.

5.  From the "Surreal Life" file, the cash announcements even include a joint one involving federal Conservative Fabian Manning.

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Family Feud: Hollywood style

In 1989, a younger Danny Williams campaigned to make Loyola Hearn premier of the province.

Almost 20 years later, the feud between the two Conservatives - one provincial and federal - is as vicious as a Hollywood divorce.

Hearn called some of Williams' rhetoric both "truth-twisting" and "underhanded."

Hearn said worse in another place as noted by CBC in its coverage of the Premier's scrum:

Williams was reacting Friday to comments Hearn made on a public call-in show after his Thursday announcement, calling the premier a dictator and accusing him of being "as gutless as a capelin."

"As well, if anyone would recognize a dictator he certainly worked for one, so he'd know a dictator I can guarantee ya," Williams said.

 

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The Polar Opposites Express

Many of you may already read Mark Watton over at nottawa, but for those who don't, you might rethink what you've been missing.

"Alphabet Soup" is Mark's take on the election, the Family Feud and federal political parties of all stripes.
It is as insightful as it is concise.

Then, when you are done with that, you can ponder something as far from insight as is humanly possible.

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Family Feud: George Orwell meets Walt Kelly

Steve Kent was quick off the mark on Thursday to pledge his unswerving, unstinting and constant loyalty to the ABC cause.

Yes, the Family Feud is on.

CBC's David Cochrane reported this evening that the Premier was so unsettled by a recent blog post at Meeker on Media that he fired off an e-mail demanding government caucus members declare their support for the Feud and indicate which candidate they would be supporting.

The post, based on comments by Loyola Hearn's communications director, suggested there were leaks inside the Tory caucus heading to Hearn and that not all Provincial Conservatives were comfortable going to war against their kith and kin.  The post also indicated that the Premier and his team were organizing a trademark astroturf campaign.

Hearing Kent of the Williams Conservatives commit to defeat the "Harper Conservatives" in the context of the Premier's e-mail only serves to confirm the background to the Meeker post and other commentaries.

First, the e-mail is a clear signal that not only are there Provincial Conservatives who are not happy with the Family Feud, the premier himself is so conscious of it - and worried about it -  that he is looking for declarations of loyalty.

Second, Kent's use of the talking point "Harper Conservatives" invites the obvious conclusion that the Family Feud merely pits the Harper Conservatives against the Williams Conservatives, a phrase that only slightly morphs the "Williams Government" phrase so popular in official government news releases.

Third, having Kent pledging to campaign throughout his district against the federal Conservatives is only fitting for what is - essentially - an internal spat among people on the same end of the political spectrum. Only a decade ago, Kent was being courted by and apparently considered running for the old Reform/Alliance Party.

One could almost hear Kent's talking points as a bizarre mix of 1984 and Pogo: 

Mount Pearl has always been at war with Eastasia. 

We have found the enemy and they is us.

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Candidate scuttlebutt - St. John's

1.  Connie organizers are working hard to get Tom Rideout in St. John's East.

2.  Hearn is out but Loyola "Rainman" Sullivan is in to replace him.

3.  Reg Anstey will declare for the NDP in St. John's South.

4.  Jack Harris...oh that never was scuttlebutt any way.

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ROFLMAO @ ABC

Over at Geoff Meeker's blog, his post on a supposed leak from inside the Provincial Conservative caucus has brought out a self-described chauvinist doing as any imitator of Nicholas Chauvin might do.

It can be pretty funny stuff if you just read what's on the page. 

Here's a summary of the discussion thus far:

According to PW, before the PM goes to see the GG, ODP needs to define ABC PDQ so things aren't FUBAR because the people of NL will not know how to X their ballot in the GE in OCT unless they hear HMV, likely on CBC, NTV, VOCM or for VIPs via TXT or PIN on RIM.

The ABC, you may recall, is supposed to KO SH and the CPC everywhere in CDA from NL to BC because they were NSF on the BP to ODP's L2S in the 06 GE. There's been no DND in HVGB or new HMP in HG, represented in the HOA by the AG.

Before now, ODP DW and SH were BFF.

ABC would also KO LH, the CPC MDFO in the GOC, who represents SJSMP in the HOC, and keep him out of the PCO in NCR but right now he is MIA.

But it's not just an ABC, according to PW who plugs his blog, PAP, in his comments on GM's MOM. 

It's ABC...D.

And worse than that PC MHAs will be PO'ed at voting for WN, SC, SA and other LPC ESP JF, who was a CM for BT and RG when they were ODP before DW.

But JH of the NDP in SJE is OK with ODP DW.

The only letter missing thus far in PW's alphabet folly "Z ", but undoubtedly someone is working on that rogue letter and will send it along ASAP.

At this point, everyone is likely LOL and well they should be WRT the whole ABC/FF thing.

MW of ON can rest easy, though.

You don't need a BA, MA or PHD from MUN to spot the BS of PW and the FF.

Now YHE-S must go to the ER and see a GP because this whole thing is causing MEGO.

K?

-srbp-

Mile One runs huge deficit

St. John's Sport and Entertainment, the municipally-owned corporation that runs Mile One Stadium, known to some as the Wells-Coombs Memorial Money Pit is reported to have posted a surplus or even a profit.

Read a bit more closely and you'll see the devil in the details.

Taxpayers of St. John's are pumping almost $2.0 million into the thing as a subsidy.

That supposed surplus of $110,000 is actually a deficit of almost $2.0 million.

There'll be no right-sizing Mile One until the subsidy is down-sized, rather than up-sized as Council has done since 2006.

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Backuppable Tom to run for federal Connies?

The Family Feud could get infinitely more entertaining if local political rumours hold true.

Former Provincial Conservative Premier Tom Rideout is looking at running for the federal Conservatives according to CBC's David Cochrane.  When Rideout quit Danny Williams' cabinet a couple of months ago, Bond Papers had Rideout looking at a run against incumbent Liberal member of parliament Scott Simms in central Newfoundland.

The specific riding isn't as important as the idea of the guy who ran through the 1989 provincial general election like the love child of Speverend Rooner and Mrs. Malaprop running for the federal Conservatives in the fall federal election.

Rideout's departure from provincial politics was never just about a million dollars of roadwork, despite what some people would have you believe. There's quite obviously some considerable animosity between Rideout and Williams, likely dating back to Rideout's leadership win in 1989.

Rideout - who served in key roles in the Williams administration - is in a position to know where more than a few bodies are buried in the Provincial Conservative backyard.  He'd also likely attract a fair bit of support from long-time Provincial Conservative voters and backroom workers who are dissatisfied with the internal party strife resulting from the ongoing Anything But Conservative campaign, as the Family Feud is officially known.

The scrappy veteran campaigner would also be inclined to smack back at any attacks from his former Provincial Conservative caucus and cabinet mates.

Even if Rideout worked behind the scenes or as a spokesperson for the federal Conservatives in the province, the Family Feud could turn out to be the surprise hit of the fall political season. The Family Feud likely won't shift too many votes, but it would be political theatre of the kind the province hasn't seen in years.

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The safest Conservative riding in Canada. Not.

That's what your humble e-scribbler thought too, until he bothered to check the facts.

Turns out the seat currently held by Norman Doyle has voted other than Blue a fair bit since 1949.

Years	MP	Party
1949-1953	Gordon Higgins	Progressive Conservative
1953-1957	Allan Fraser	Liberal
1957-1963	Jim McGrath	Progressive Conservative
1963-1968	Joseph O'Keefe	Liberal
1968-1986	Jim McGrath	Progressive Conservative
1987-1988	Jack Harris	New Democratic Party
1988-1993	Ross Reid	Progressive Conservative
1993-1997	Bonnie Hickey	Liberal
1997-2008	Norman Doyle	Conservative

 

Jim McGrath racked up the biggest margins in previous elections, capturing over 70% of votes cast in some elections.

If you want to check for yourself, follow the summary at Wikipaedia down to the bottom.  The data at the Wikipaedia entry is taken directly from Elections Canada  and Library of Parliament results.

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Provincial Conservatives plan ABC astroturf

Bond Papers readers are no doubt shocked at the very thought, but it seems to be true.

They may even be struck speechless at the very idea.

The Provincial Conservatives are organizing astroturf as part of the Family Feud. That's according to some information Geoff Meeker obtained courtesy of Loyola Hearn's office, whose spokesman conveyed it this way:

“We were contacted late last week by a member of the provincial PC caucus, who told us that they were contacted by someone in the premier’s office, asking all ministers and MHAs to find at least four people in their ridings who they can call upon to put their names to letters to the editor, or to put calls in to Open Line shows, to give the appearance that the ABC campaign is away more ‘grass roots’ than perhaps what it is. These calls are happening during business hours from someone in the premier’s office, though I won’t get into who.”

The piece contains another claim destined to leave people truly dumbfounded:  the astroturf campaign is already underway.

Not like people haven't been writing blog posts and calling open line shows expressing their sedimental solidarity with the New Democrats, talking up the positive features of the Family Feud and condemning Stephen Harper at every opportunity.

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The jazz of life vests

Air Canada Jazz recently announced the airline will be removing passenger life vests from their flights.

The move is aimed at reducing weight on aircraft and thereby reducing fuel consumption. There's a Transport Canada regulation making life vests mandatory on flights 50 nautical miles from shore and since Jazz doesn't typically fly that far from land, they won't be breaking the rules.  On routes where they did get more than 50 miles out, the airline plans to adjust the route to bring them within the limit.

Incidentally, the 50 mile run is there since Transport Canada figures that an aircraft at altitude and no more than 50 nautical miles from shore can glide to a landmass if need be.

Some are very upset, claiming it's a safety risk.

Some of the local loons are using it as yet another example of how people upalong don't give a damn about Newfoundlanders.

That generates nothing more than a big sigh.

As someone who has kept track of aviation issues for a fair while, your humble e-scribbler had a hard time recalling the last time a commercial airliner ditched, let alone successfully.

There have been a few spectacular crashes in which the aircraft was pretty far from in control which, by the way would be pretty much the only time when a life vest would be of any demonstrable use beyond helping to find your remains.

Turns out that since 1970 there haven't been any such landings on water anywhere on the planet by commercial airliners according to the guys at Freakonomics. 150 million commercial airline flights and 15 billion passengers and not a single person has been able to use the 15 second instruction (30 secs in bilingual Canada) let alone use the vest.

It's interesting to see that in all the comments on this two year old article, there isn't one that contradicts the life vest/water landing thesis.  Not one.  Even on one aviation forum, the contributors had a hard time coming up with a contemporary ditching story in which the passengers would have been able to don life vests ahead of the time the aircraft hit the water.

What you do see are a couple of examples of aircraft on final approach landing short of the runway which, just by happenstance, abutts a body of water.  It's highly unlikely any of those passengers did anything beyond head for the nearest exit once they got over the shock of the crash.

Interesting that Air Canada doesn't seem to have used the safety issue very much if at all in defence of its decision.

They'd have a pretty powerful argument or so it seems.

-srbp-

Quietly Conservative

Over at the Telly, the weekend and holidays crew is writing headlines designed to arouse the irk of the nationalist fringe.

Either that or they didn't notice it's not just the apparent mainlander quoted by Canadian Press as dismissing the Anything But What It Seems campaign.

At least one of the people from Newfoundland and Labrador isn't impressed by the Premier's bout of high dudgeon and he's not a political science professor somewhat removed from reality, err, the front lines of political organizing.

Liam O'Brien points out the bleeding obvious, the so-bleeding-obvious that Memorial University political science professor Steve Tomblin missed it entirely. Sayeth Liam:

“It’s the strangest thing. It takes me back to my Catholic days when you go to confession. We’re getting these people walking up and whispering to us, ‘I’m a provincial Progressive Conservative, but I’m also a federal Conservative,”’ he said.

“They (Tory voters) don’t need to scream it out loud, they just need to mark their X on the ballot.”

That's pretty much what they did in 2004, the last time the provincial Conservative leader had a bit of a disagreement with his federal brother.

Comparing the 2004 and 2006 vote counts shows some slight suppression of turnout in the St. John's area ridings and a slight drop in federal Connie vote. But once the provincial Connies were given dispensation to work for the federal crowd, the numbers moved back up.

Overall though, the population continued its usual pattern of voting anything but Conservative. That's what they've done in almost every election since 1949. And when they didn't do it, as in the late 1960s, the vote was driven almost entirely by their dissatisfaction with the provincial Premier of the day.

Like say 1997, when the locals were so rotted with the provincial government and Brian Tobin (Lloyd Matthews, father of Danny's Liz as health minister) over health care, that they bucked the trend and turned out a bunch of Connies even in formerly safe Liberal seats.

Poof.

Times change.

The irk subsides.

Every sign that voters are going back to their usual voting patterns not just here but across Atlantic Canada.
Up pops young Mr. Tobin to proclaim that he is leaving the premier's job behind and heading back to Ottawa - notwithstanding his promise of just a few months earlier he'd finish the full second term - to lead a joyous crusade for something or other and set it as his personal mission to restore Liberal seats in Atlantic Canada.

Restore Liberal seats.

When the polls showed voting patterns returning to the historic norms and seats which had gone Connie or Dipper in 1997 would be returning to the Gritty crew.

And some less than observant observers vowed it would be possible what given that young Mr. Tobin was wildly popular, a brilliant political strategist and able to walk on water, heal the sick and turn water into Jockey Club at the drop of a hat.

Miraculous lad, that young Brian, said all the sayers of sooth.

Had a bit of trouble with the fishes, though, but other than that a wonderful popular fellow who at no point had an ulterior political motive like say becoming prime minister. Pay no attention to that guy behind the curtain holding fund-raisers.

He's just going back to Ottawa on a mission for the people and he will produce a voting miracle.

But you see the pattern, right?

Predict something that usually happens and the rubes will think you are a genius.

It's the stuff of a late-night infomercial by The Amazing Ruth and her Psychic Bunions.

It does point out the weakness in all the drivel about Danny being pissed because Steve fooled him and so now Danny is going to make Steve pay by campaigning against him.

That weakness being the lack of tangible evidence the Provincial Conservative will have any sway with voters anywhere at all, including locally when it comes to federal politics.

'Cause, as Liam points out, in the secret ballot box where even the dogsbodies sniffing out the unfaithful for their master cannot go, there's no way of knowing what a given person does in the secrecy of the ballot box.
That little reality would be galling if that's what the dogsbodies' master really had as his political goal in the Anything But Reality campaign.

Not everything is as it appears, even on a Blackberry screen.

-srbp-

 

Eats, shoots and leaves update: 

There are typos. 

Untied instead of united?  That's a typographical error in which letters are tapped out of sequence.

Then there are spelling problems.  Typing sediment when you meant sentiment.  Or tudor when you meant tutor.

No matter how you try and explain those, there is no way that those misuses of words are a function of fingers hitting the wrong keys.

Then, there are problems with punctuation.

Turns out that the headline on the story linked above is the original Canadian Press headline.

Almost.

The CP version had a colon between the word "Ontario" and the word "commentator".  The colon suggests that the words before it are a paraphrase of a comment made by the commentator.

In this instance, there's a slight difference to the two headlines given the punctuation variation.

The Telly headline suggests that the commentator from Ontario isn't impressed.  That's true, if you read the story, but the CP version gives the sense of the comments in the story story, namely that voters in Ontario won't be impressed.

All of this may only bother a handful, but when you are trying to communicate an idea clearly, everything from spelling to punctuation to verb tense to getting the words in the right order can affect what idea the reader sees.

For those who are troubled by punctuation, for those who do not know the difference between a colon and a semi-colon, there is help:

Your humble e-scribbler has looked for this book in a local bookshop for some time now.  The heavens aligned recently and delivered it at a second-hand bookstore in Mount Pearl, in pristine condition and for only a handful of bucks.

Lynne Truss gives a master class in punctuation using simple sentences and plenty of humour.

What more could you ask for?

Globe editors wonder: How many Scott Reids could there be?

More than they evidently know.

The guy in the photo is the former javelin catcher for Paul Martin.

The guy who made the comments about the glory of fixed election dates is one of Stephen Harper's gang who are about to toss aside the glories of fixed election dates they championed.

They don't look anything alike.

-srbp-

MUN Crisis continues

Just because it hasn't been in the news lately doesn't mean that the Memorial University crisis is not simmering away beneath the surface.

You know that because Pam Frampton has another column this week which starts out with an e-mail exchange with the Premier's Office.

The open and accountable Premier's publicity department doesn't think that further comment on the presidential search would be in Memorial's interest.

When she went looking for a few comments from the Premier - likely to come via e-mail - Pam got the usual response from the Blackberry that runs government's publicity machine:  not interested.

If it weren't for opposable thumbs, this administration would not be able to carry out its media relations policy:

The interview is ducked. 

Declined. 

Avoided. 

So as not to have to give an actual answer or provide information.

It is the Blackberry version of government testimony at Cameron.  The talking points have to set a new record for brevity:  "I can't recall."

Rarely has the functioning of human society been so dependent on something monkeys could do. 

In order to tell some reporter to sod off, one does not need the gift of speech. 

One need only be able to click one's thumbs on some small keys in a certain sequence.

One need not have the ability to understand complex or abstract concepts, like the value of sustaining mutually beneficial human relationships through direct voice contact. [The concept of zero, as in the amount of useful information conveyed by the average government publicist, would not being among those unknown ideas.  That's about the only abstraction involved.]

And therein lies the larger problem here.  While none inside the Confederation Building likely see it, this is a sign of the full-on rot which takes hold in all administrations after a certain point. 

They become so convinced of their own immense value to the evolution of the species. They start to think that that their claims issued in written "statements" are not merely profound but universally true; like the Bible but better somehow. 

As they grow weary of the mortals with whom they must deal each day, they start to dismiss them as cavalierly as Louis or Marie ever did. 

In the last couple of years of the Peckford era, people wondered if the premier's media guy existed.  In the days before Blackberry kiss-offs, he just stopped returning phone calls from reporters.

Period.

Joe Smallwood coasted along on the daily stops at voice of the cabinet minister. Down with window, in comes microphone.  Blather for a few minutes and then drive off hopefully after reporter got arm back out of window.

The people in these august positions do not realise what is happening of course.  Their delusion is so complete that they neither see nor care to see the slow erosion of everything that supports them. 

They carry on with petty political feuds among themselves, as if these things were  important, let alone as important as what they were supposed to be focusing on.  In the process, supporters, friends and sometimes even family walk away. 

The whole apparatus of a particular administration can be propped up by nothing more substantive than a CRA poll. To those at the heights, it appears as though the whole thing is magically floating, held aloft by the righteousness of whatever it is they are doing.  They imagine a giant concrete base because they cannot see the real base:  two guys lashing broom handles together with duct tape.

You see, governments rarely fall apart before your eyes.  They don't just up and fall in on themselves one day. There is no final cataclysmic destruction.

They rot.

They decay.

They erode.

There is never anything truly spectacular except at the end when someone from another party finally pushes the whole mess over in a heap of ash.  By then, no one really cares any more.

Until then, there are the slights.  There are the dismissals.  There are broken promises. There are the frustrations and in some cases the outright insults that all remove another layer of the social bonds on which a political party is sustained.

The gotterdammerung - the twilight of the gods - is not heralded by the Ride of the Valkyries.

It is foretold, these days, by a RIM-shot.

-srbp-

Risky Business 2: Provincial government cost/revenue estimates

The Telegram front page today carries a story on the provincial government's revenue estimates for the Hebron project in three scenarios.  The scenarios use oil at an assumed average price over the life of the project at US$50, US$87 and US$113 (constant 2008 dollars). The story is also available online.

Given that oil prices haven't averaged anything near US$87 or US$113 over the past 25 or 30 years, that US$50 a barrel estimate in constant dollars is probably a little closer to the likely performance of oil prices sometime after 2018.  In that scenario, the provincial government estimates revenues at $6.8 billion, including $5.4 billion from the revised royalty regime.

That royalty regime keeps royalties at a constant 1% up to simple payout and then provides for an additional 6.5% in any month after simple payout in which prices average above US$50 for West Texas Intermediate at Cushing, Oklahoma.

To see the impact of oil prices on the revenue projections using the revamped royalty regime, all you have to do is lop one measly dollar off the assumed average price. At US$49 - a 2% drop from the government's assumed average price -  the province's royalty take drops by at least $1.25 billion.  That's 23% less. Factor in the loss from the changed royalty regime, which government estimates at $105 million at the average price of US$50 a barrel and the loss climbs.

The provincial estimates see the 4.9% equity position generating $800 million for the energy corporations oil subsidiary at the US$50 price assumption. This appears to be based on total costs for the company of $600 million over the life of the project (construction to decommissioning).

Based on the provincial government's own estimates of costs for acquisition and the construction phase, that would assume the OilCo's share of all production and decommissioning phase costs at $200 million. That works out to a total projected cost of $4.0 billion for ongoing operations of the rig, exploration, delineation and production drilling after first oil and whatever share of decommissioning costs the oil company will bear.  It would also have to include any fees and charges for handling the sale of crude which represents the OilCo share of production.

Low-balled costs?  Could be. Bond Papers' preliminary estimate of lifecycle costs for OilCo came in at about twice the amount apparently used in the provincial government calculations. Bond Papers used a figure of $10 billion as the cost of operations expenditures and production phase drilling, and decommissioning costs, including the $250 million for a liability guarantee.

Fixing an accurate estimate of the costs after first oil would help refine the calculations.  That may be difficult, though, since the acquisition agreement between the provincial government and the oil companies hasn't been released to the public.  It might become somewhat easier when and if a development application is filed with the offshore regulatory board.  That application would include a forecast of drilling activity for the production phase.

-srbp-

 

Related:

1. "Hebron second royalty: a second view".  (August 2007) Examines the Hebron royalty, as originally presented in the memorandum of understanding, using an assumed average price in constant 2005 dollars.
2. "Hebron basic royalty: a preliminary assessment" (August 2007)
3. "Masters of our domain: Williams concedes on royalties". (August 2007)
4. "Masters of our domain: province lowers royalty for Hebron pre-payout phase". (August 2007)
5. "History repeating itself".(August 2007).  Notes the impact of changing assumptions on the price of oil on perceptions of the "value" of a deal.

Connie bitch-slapping intensifies

The Family Feud continues unabated.

There must be a federal election coming.

The latest volley is a statement released by federal fish minister Loyola Hearn this afternoon:

It's interesting to hear the Premier say today that he was simply "stepping up to the plate" to fund arts initiatives within the province, and to highlight his own commitment to the arts.

Residents of Mount Pearl may find this message a little bit confusing.  The original proposal for Mount Pearl's Lifestyle Centre included a local theatre.  With federal and municipal money on the table, the Williams government responded that they would not fund the project if the federal government was involved. 

In the end, the Lifestyle Centre became a victim of the ABC campaign, and will proceed without a theatre.

Hearn's a scrappy old silverback politician.  You don't have to agree with his politics to appreciate that he's unlikely to take the sort of pokes Danny Williams has been making without hitting back.  And it's not like Hearn has been afraid to go right up Danny's nose if need be to make a point.

But at this early stage of the campaign, it won't be too long before the Universal Rule is broken and someone's mother gets dragged dragged into the whole fracas.

Oh dear.

Fights in the family are always the ugliest.

How ugly?

Well, there's always this video of a very young, but no less irk-filled Danny Williams telling CBC's Deanne Fleet what a great premier Loyola Hearn would make.

 

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Family Feud

The federal Conservatives and the provincial Conservatives are still hacking away at each other.

This time it's iambic pentameter at 10 paces with cuts to arts funding.

The other day it was provincial Conservative dauphin Jerome Kennedy and funding for a new prison in the province, likely to be built in his own district if the feds cough up the cash.

The only thing missing is Richard Dawson.

All highly entertaining but beyond that, it's nothing more than a sign a federal election is around the corner.

-srbp-

Familiar names, one surprise running OilCo

The directors of the Oil and Gas Corporation of Newfoundland and Labrador (OilCo) include some familiar names from the energy corporation board, one of the Premier's former law partner and the head of the Steele Communications.

John Ottenheimer is a former provincial cabinet minister currently serving as chair of the board for the province's energy corporation and its Hydro subsidiary.

Fellow board member Ken Marshall  - the Rogers Cable boss in the province and a former business partner of the Premier - also sites on the new OilCo board, along with Gerry Shortall, a former Hydro board member appointed by the Williams administration.

Glen Roebothan is a senior partner with Roebothan, McKay and Marshall, the Premier's former law firm.

John Steele is the surprise.  He's the head of Steele Communications, parent corporation of VOCM.

OilCo was incorporated in August 21 under the Corporations Act as a subsidiary of the provincially-owned energy corporation.

-srbp-

Hebron not sanctioned; may not be sanctioned solely at call of oil companies

The Hebron project has not been sanctioned  and may not be sanctioned, according to the fiscal agreement released on Thursday by the provincial government and only the oil companies can make a decision when - if at all - to develop the project.

That's a huge change in policy for a provincial government that, in the wake of the first Hebron negotiating failure only two years ago, was threatening to legislate development of projects offshore.  The premier and others complained that development could be held up indefinitely by oil companies.

Under the fiscal agreement, the proponents are under no obligation to proceed with the project or any project and that choice remains the sole discretion of the proponents.

2.3   Project Sanction Obligations.

The entering into of this Agreement does not obligate the Proponents to sanction or continue the Hebron Project or any other Development Project, which shall be in the sole discretion of the Proponents.

On top of that, the proponents have at least a decade to decide to sanction the project before the provincial government may terminate the agreements signed this month. However, as with the rest of the agreement that minimum 10 year life span of the agreement could be continued by agreement among the companies and the provincial government. 

2.4 Time Limit for Development.

If, at any time after the tenth anniversary of the Effective Date, the Proponents have not obtained approval from the Board of the Development Plan, absent agreement to the contrary the Province shall have the right to terminate this Agreement on thirty (30) days notice.

While the provincial government released the acknowledgement agreement, the fiscal agreement and the benefit agreement, it withheld two other key agreements.  One is the closing agreement.  The other is the acquisition agreement which presumably covers details of the provincial government's equity interest in the project.

In addition to the points noted above, the fiscal agreement appears to involve a more substantive change to the royalty regime than originally disclosed. There'll be more on the fiscal arrangements and the benefits agreement once your humble e-scribbler has had a chance to go through them in detail.

-srbp-

Conservative megalomania...

or are they all on some new form of mind-altering substance that is extremely potent but not yet illegal?

First, we have the provincial Conservatives spouting grand conspiracy theories.

Then, we hear that the federal Conservative leader is engaged in a long term political campaign not to introduce new ideas in politics and improve the country but to destroy a rival political party.  This according to Tom Flanagan, the former Harper chief of staff who has gone back to Calgary to teach political science..

These guys must be on something that makes crack cocaine feel like a pipeful of Cream of the West.

Stephen Harper is a superior campaigner, apparently.  Now that one has likely got people rolling on the floor from coast to coast, including people who aren't Liberal supporters.

Compared to who?

Ed Broadbent?

Jack Layton?

Kim Campbell?

John Turner?

Then there's this gem of a quote:

“You can fight a war with some objective less than total victory,” he [Flanagan] said of the coming campaign.

That sounds like the vintage game theorist horse hooey that guys like Bob MacNamara used In Vietnam to just overwhelming success.

Like your humble e-scribbler said three years ago, game theory is to strategy as Intelligent Design is to science.

Next thing ya know, someone will be telling us that Harper proved with geometric logic that there was a duplicate key to the wardroom icebox where the strawberries were kept.

You can hear the clacking of the ball bearings at 24 Sussex from here.

-srbp-

Oram blames Danny for JSS cancellation

When Newfoundland and Labrador becomes the focal point and our shipyard becomes seemingly the best and only shipyard that can be used to do this particular contract, all of a sudden they first talk about going offshore and now they decide to cancel the project.  There is something going wrong somewhere.

"Something wrong with JSS contract, Oram says", Telegram, Tuesday, 25 August 2008

Newfoundland and Labrador business minister Paul Oram is blaming the strained relationship between his boss and the Prime Minister for the federal government's decision to scrap the joint support ship contract.

Premier Danny Williams said much the same thing in a radio talk show Tuesday.

Now of course that isn't what they meant, but, in truth, the very notion that the federal government would deliberately scrap an important contract because Danny and Steve don't get along is ludicrous in itself.  Silly as the thought is, both ministers offered it up to news media with a completely straight face.

In the Telegram story quoted above, Oram related a conversation he claims to have had with federal industry minister Jim Prentice while both ministers attended the Farnborough air show in July.  In the conversation, Prentice reportedly said that the federal government was considering having the hulls built outside Canada and the topsides and other fitting out work done in the country.

That part of the story is likely accurate since it jives with media reports that predate Oram's junket to the world's premiere air show. Oram would have had those reports long before Farnborough if his media clipping service and Our Man in a Blue Line Cab were doing their jobs.

Ottawa Citizen defence columnist David Pugliese reported in late May that both finalist shipyards had advised government they could produce only two of the three required ships for the $2.9 billion budgeted by treasury board for the project.

Pugliese blogged in early August that National Defence was examining a number of alternatives, including building the ships overseas.  That was seen at the time as politically unpalatable given that two shipyards in the country were technically capable of doing the work.

That's where Oram's account of the Prentice exchange and the likely one start to diverge.  While Oram claims the offshore option was considered because yards couldn't do the work, the thread that runs consistently through the story - and the one devoid of the political silliness Oram was trying to flog - is that there was enough money budgeted for either of the Canadian yards to be able to complete the project as tendered.

Big difference.

The joint support ships contract will likely come back and come back quickly since the vessels are needed urgently to replace the worn-out auxiliary oil replenishment vessels currently in service.  One of the consistent criticisms of the project is that the ships were supposed to do too many jobs for one hull.

In addition to providing logistics support for deployed naval forces (food, fuel and ammunition resupply), the JSS was supposed to serve as a transport ship capable of carrying an infantry company plus equipment to an overseas deployment.  At one point, the navy reportedly considered leasing a mothballed American amphibious assault ship for army support role while building conventional stores ships to replace the existing vessels.

There's no question these ships are needed, no matter what the configuration involved. Whatever the reason, the project was dealt a serious blow with the cancellation.  Coupled with the reported financial problems inside the current federal administration, it may not be back on track for some time to come.  In the meantime, the existing hulls will reach the end of the workable life in 2012. 

Something needs to be sorted out and sorted soon.

That will likely need to be done by federal politicians.

This contract may well serve voters as a good test to use when sorting through their federal candidates in the next election. If they are toeing a line - especially the childish ABC one - it might be an idea to leave them on the bench and look for a better alternative.

Unfortunately, the provincial government - through administrations of all stripes - doesn't seem to understand either the importance of defence industries to the provincial economy or what it takes to be effective in dealing with the federal government on defence issues.  Oram's not the first provincial cabinet minister to make asinine comments and sadly he likely won't be the last.

When politicians leap into complex issues they clearly know nothing about - as Oram clearly doesn't - they only serve to bugger up the works at worst or get ignored at best.

The men and women of the Canadian Forces, a great many of them from this province,  can do without that kind of "help".

The men and women of businesses like Marystown can do without it as well.

-srbp-

Government considering subsidies to private sector businesses

The provincial government is considering subsidizing air travel for people owning property in western Newfoundland but living outside Canada.

The idea of discount air travel using public money has been around for some time but has picked up momentum as Humber Valley Resort restructures and withdraws from tourism activity.  Currently, the resort offers its property owners a subsidized direct flight between the United Kingdom and Deer Lake. The resort won't be continuing the subsidized air travel for its property owners.

International commercial air travel is currently available to the island's west coast through connections in Toronto, St. John's, Halifax and Montreal.

A summer service by Air Canada between London (Gatwick) and St. John's was canceled after Astraeus Airlines - which then operated the private charter flights to the resort - introduced a stop in St. John's to challenge what was already a weak intercontinental market out of St. John's. Astraeus canceled its St. John's to Gatwick flight as well citing low business volume.

A west coast lobby group - Humber Direct-Air  - is looking at ways of providing the subsidy currently covered by Humber Valley Resort using other funds, apparently including a source that isn't the public till.

The lobby group includes west coast businesses, as well as the Deer lake airport authority head and a representative of Humber Valley Resort.

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At the fictitious shareholders meeting...

Surely your humble e-scribbler is not the only one to notice that the provincial government is regarded by natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale and her colleagues as a business venture.

Well, surely you've noticed that since 2007 (and a comfortable stranglehold on democracy, the ruling Conservatives have shown themselves to be nothing like the spitting and spewing populists they were.  Stephenville and Abitibi are but a dim memory.

So anyway so let's carry on with the delusion of some that this province is run by ProvGovCo, a wholly owned subsidiary of DW Enterprises.

Let's also imagine that there is an imaginary stockholders meeting in which all of us with shares in this little escapade get to put questions to the senior management.  Basically, this is cable Atlantic where four guys ran the whole thing.  This is more like ExxonMobil where even the lowliest shareholder can grill The Suits at least once a year.  Surely if its good enough for Big Oil it should be good enough for Big Oil's newest big buddies.
Anyway, there are a couple of fairly simple questions about AbitibiBowater and the provincial government's subsidies over the past couple of years.  Dunderdale puts it at $20 million.  The figure is likely more like $30 million, based on earlier comments, but the $20 million is a good starting point.

1. How much is the provincial government subsidizing the paper mills at Grand Falls and Corner Brook, annually?  Break it down by mill, and by the purpose of the subsidy.  Go back a decade so we can see any trends.
2. How much does the provincial government make every year from the mills in the forms of taxes, leases, rents, including income taxes and sales taxes resulting from mill activity?  Break it down, again, by category and amount and go back at least a decade to see what the trends have been.

That's pretty basic stuff.

No one should hold his breath expecting any answers, at least without forking over cash.

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The Obama-Kinnock ticket

For political junkies, there is no such thing as rehab.

There is only the perpetual fix from news media.  No hit is more delicious and intoxicating than the ones that come from an American presidential campaign. 

Political junkies do not really need their own works.  The entire society is set up to deliver the drug to willing recipient. All news channels gave us something akin to coke. As if that wasn't enough, there came the political blogs, the crack cocaine of political addictions.

None of this, of course, is to make light of drug addiction and the havoc it wreaks on individuals, their families and societies.  It is simply a metaphor.  An apt one too, sometimes, considering what politics can do not only to the people caught up in it but their families and the people around them.

Such is the intensity of the political addiction of millions that way too freakin' early on a Saturday morning in late August, the world learned that Barack Obama- darling of certain media circles, presumptive Democratic Party presidential nominee and an intriguing potential president - selected the 65 year old senator from Delaware, Joseph Biden, as his vice-presidential running mate.

No dysfunctional New Yorker, despite the speculation, the hype and the supposedly sage advice from every corner.

No John Edwards, thanks in no small measure to Edwards' political electoral dysfunction resulting from a pair of old politicians disorder:  philandering and then fibbing about it.

Instead, we have Joe Biden.

The senior senator would add foreign policy depth and experience to the ticket, we are told.

The senior senator also brings with him some baggage of his own and it took not even 24 hours for the political junkies to remind us of Biden's theft - 21 years ago - of a speech by British Labour Party leader Neil Kinnock:

NEIL KINNOCK at Welsh Labour Party conference May 1987:

"Why am I the first Kinnock in a thousand generations to be able to get to university? Was it because our predecessors were thick? Does anybody really think that they didn't get what we had because they didn't have the talent or the strength or the endurance or the commitment? Of course not. It was because there was no platform upon which they could stand"

JOE BIDEN IN Sept 1987 during his first presidential campaign:

"Why is it that Joe Biden is the first in his family ever to go a university? Why is it that my wife... is the first in her family to ever go to college? Is it because our fathers and mothers were not bright? ...Is it because they didn't work hard? My ancestors who worked in the coal mines of northeast Pennsylvania and would come after 12 hours and play football for four hours? It's because they didn't have a platform on which to stand."

This excerpt doesn't give the full text of either speech.  Biden took Kinnock's references to hours of work and football and expanded the time involved in both. 

To the uninitiated, this might seem like trivia.  It may not be.  The revelation of one form of theft - plagiarism is the polite, intellectual name for it - led to digging for others. Altogether, the Kinnock theft scuttled Biden's presidential bid in 1987 once it was discovered and widely reported.

The Kinnock story is already making the rounds of American media and it is only a matter of time before youtube sprouts old video tape of Kinnock in full lyrical, Welsh flight married to the clunkier Biden version.  Political junkies can actually store up past benders and recycle them in a new binge.

Obama's already had a couple of Kinnock moments of his own.  One version is presented below.  There's a more detailed one in another youtube video.  About six months ago, some youtubers posted side by side clips of Obama and Massachusetts governor Deval Patrick.

Now there is a difference in the two cases.  Patrick is a strong Obama supporter and its another thing for two men who are politically tied in the same country to use each other's speeches.  Patrick and Obama might well be seen as merely representing two members of a political movement.

It is a different matter to swipe words from another politician in another country.

In the end, that may prove to be a distinction without being a difference. In a tight political race for the most important political job in the United States and arguably the biggest political job in the world, every possible fault, slip and foible will be highlighted.  Which one takes hold in the popular imagination is anyone's guess.

Incidentally, the Kinnock speech isn't on youtube.  Yet.

But other stuff is.

Like some of the savaging the Labour leader had at the hands of Spitting Image, the satirical television program.

let's see what use someone might make of this sort of stuff.

Williams and Harper use same comms approach

From David Pugliese's blog at the Ottawa Citizen, a description of the way DND Public Affairs has been turned from what Pugliese describes as one of the best media relations shops around to another of the drones.

Does any of this over-loaded, control-freakish information-manipulating, opaque (not transparent) silliness seem the vaguest bit familiar?

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