"A" but "C" except before seal

Danny Williams may like to claim Stephen Harper is a kitten-eating lizard from outer space but when push came to shove last week, Williams gave up the chance to campaign against a key Harper minister in Nova Scotia.

Williams chief publicity agent responded via Blackberry (that's pretty much how she deals with everyone, apparently) to a Green Party request telling them that Williams wouldn't campaign with Elizabeth May against Peter MacKay "in large part due" to the Green Party stance on the seal hunt.

Huh? What about getting rid of Stephen Harper? What about spreading the word about how Steve and his minions will destroy the country? 

Geez, from the amount of time spent discussing this ABC Family Feud thingy you'd believe it trumped just about anything else.

Apparently, not.

Apparently, seal-bashing is that much more important than opposing pure evil. 

Or largely more important.

Or maybe the real reason is less about seals and more about the politics of the whole Family Feud.

Firstly, the ABC campaign is really just a family affair;  it's a gripe one bunch of Conservatives have about another bunch.

Secondly, it's a negative thing.  As such, the rhetoric will centre on why people should vote against one federal party but there is absolutely nothing in it to explain what people should vote for.

Thirdly, and related to that, Danny Williams would have a hard time justifying spending time on the ground campaigning for one federal candidate against another federal candidate.  There's an unwritten rule in Canadian politics that federal politicians and parties don't inject themselves directly in a federal campaign and vice versa.  If Danny Williams takes to the campaign trail actively working against a federal party, he'd be inviting retaliation the next time he goes to the polls.

That's no small issue, especially in a small province like Newfoundland and Labrador. Having screwed over the federal Liberals and now the federal Conservatives, Williams would be running a huge political gamble that they wouldn't look for some payback in 2011 or whenever Williams calls a vote again.

And make no mistake:  it wouldn't be about punishing either the province as a whole or the party Williams leads. Any intervention by federal parties would every bit as personal as Williams' attacks.  There's a good reason why Williams pulled back from focusing on Fabian Manning, the only incumbent Conservative and the one most likely to hang on to his seat.

Fourthly, the unwillingness to campaign actively for a candidate can be traced back to the polls. Initial polls show that after two years of ABC rhetoric 30-odd percent of voters in Newfoundland and Labrador intend to vote for the federal Conservatives in this election.

As much as some people would like you to believe the two parties are completely different, they aren't.  That 30-odd percent is entirely made up of the core that in provincial elections votes with the Provincial Conservatives.  Depending on which poll you want to look at, that percentage makes up a half or three quarters of Williams' core vote. If those people are immune to his ministrations at the outset, the only way to suppress them or swing them would be with a campaign that ultimately would have runs the risk of opening up severe cracks within Williams' own party.

The federal Conservatives have already pressed on that sore spot several times.  Williams himself gave some credence to it when he responded to a claim by Loyola Hearn about fissures in the provincial Tory caucus by demanding loyalty declarations from his 43 caucus mates.  Other politicians would have sloughed off the Hearn claim.  Williams' actions left the clear impression there was a concern over caucus solidarity.

Think about it for a second. Danny Williams already redefined the objectives for his ABC campaign and he did so - fairly obviously - in the face of public opinion polls that shows he likely won't even be able to deliver a goose egg to the Conservatives in his own province, as he consistently used to claim as the goal.  If he is unlikely to deliver a goose egg in his own province, any effort to unseat incumbent Conservatives elsewhere in the country would only serve to weaken his political position later on. Better to haul back now than have to face the jibes and taunts later on.

And look, fifthly, it's not like Williams ever considered Elizabeth May important enough to bother with before.  She may be a national party leader in the leaders' debate but Danny didn't send her a begging letter.  Odds were against him hitting the doorsteps on her behalf now.

If not of that was persuasive, there's a sixth good reason why Danny Williams won't be spending much time on the hustings outside Newfoundland and Labrador. There are major issues on the public agenda right now in Newfoundland and Labrador. Huge ones.  Ones that typically turn up at the top of polls about what weighs on voters' minds.  There is simply no political value for Danny Williams to spend four or five weeks knocking doors and giving speeches across the country when the job he was elected to door appears to be left untended. As much as it might be possible to run the place and campaign simultaneously, the public perception  - especially in light of the polls and the likelihood of success - make that an even more risky venture than any of the others alone.

Put it together in a package and the whole idea of an active ABC campaign just becomes too dangerous a political proposition.

So Danny won't help Elizabeth May, in large part due to the seal hunt.

If that helps you sleep at night, go ahead and believe it.

-srbp-

Everyone chill...for now

After a one day panic, oil prices settled back down on Tuesday.

NYMEX crude for November delivery was at US$106.81, with the spot for Brent and West Texas Intermediate at, respectively, US$101.70 and US$107.86.

Brent is the closest thing in price to Newfoundland light, sweet incidentally.

Oil prices may swing up and down over the next couple of days or even into next week, with much depending on the massive bail-out package working its way through the American federal Congress.

On the whole, though, it looks like oil will continue a generally downward trend over the next few months.

The implications of this dropping oil price will become more apparent for Newfoundland and Labrador very shortly.

-srbp-

Nanos: it's all in the methodology

Yep.

That pretty much explains why Nanos Research numbers are typically just a bit different - and sometimes quite a bit different - from the ones coming from a majority of national pollsters.

Now mind you, this is not really a problem for ordinary mortals.

They aren't substituting extensive rationalizations of Gerry Ritz's appalling comments (They pay Connie hacks big bucks to apologize for Harper's crew;  we don't need it from CTV) for something like thoughtful, balanced coverage.

They aren't even pondering the bizarre universe in which The Star and National Post columnists share essentially the same view of the Liberals and apparently the same goal of slagging the party at every opportunity. We await Don Martin's new job editing Toronto's other other newspaper that at least knows it has nothing to offer anyone outside the GTA.

Their peculiar brand of tripe comes not from actually covering the campaign but from reading some dodgy polls, chatting with a few mates here and there to confirm previous opinions and then disengaging whatever is stored 'twixt the ears in order to bash out a few words for the rag that pays the bills.

Sadly, that's pretty much the trend for this federal election, one in which tuning in to CTV, the typical Canadian viewer likely wonders when Bill O'Reilly will be turning up to take Kate Wheeler's spot.

Those are the people who have a problem with Nik Nanos and his numbers.

The rest of us are just enjoying the show.

-srbp-

Family Feud, world of wonder version

Only two short years ago, Provincial Conservatives were lining up to get their picture taken with a Conservative brother running for re-election for what turned out to be the last time.

This ad - paid for by the federal Conservatives - appeared in the Telegram in early December 2005.

The guy seated on the far right of the picture is Loyola Sullivan, the finance minister at the time.  He quit federal politics not long after this picture only to take up a job with the federal Conservatives.

The guy behind him is former speaker Harvey Hodder.  He retired before the 2007 provincial election.

Immediately to Loyola Hearn's right is Sheila Osborne, part of the Osborne-Ridgley political machine.

The guy standing right behind Loyola Hearn - with that great big grin on his face - is Bob Ridgley, brother of Sheila. You will recall him as the Conservative who supported Belinda Stronach for leader even though, by his own words, he thought she was "shallow as a saucer".

Bob is now Danny Williams' parliamentary assistant.

The other two guys are - left to right - Shawn Skinner and Dave Denine. Skinner is the provincial human resources cabinet minister and Denine is looking after municipal affairs.

You'll recall Skinner was taken to the woodshed by Danny Williams for going off the ABC message track.  He was made to apologize publicly for his transgression.

Denine's had a few problems of his own, but never for doing something that went against orders from the top.

Interesting picture that, if only because it makes you wonder when they line up behind a candidate if they really do it out of personal choice or if they have been directed by some authority or other.

Makes you wonder that if they lend you support do they expect a quid pro quo, a back scratch in return.

Makes you wonder what happens if you don't do what they (or the authority doing the directing) wants.

Of course, it makes you wonder too if one of these is Loyola's mole.

-srbp-

Connie Surreality Check

Stephen Harper is criticizing the Liberal platform.

Okay.

Like they did such a great job with their platform last time.

-srbp-

Family Feud Surreality Check, Part Deux

Wayne Bennett is a candidate for the Newfoundland and Labrador First Party.

He is running against incumbent Gerry Byrne, a Liberal.

Mr. Bennett is also a director of the Humber Valley Provincial Conservative association.

He is campaigning on the argument that in the existing system, according to the weekly in the riding:

MPs elected to the governing party hide behind that party's decisions. ...Meanwhile, he says, MPs elected to political parties not holding the reins of government don't have the power to make demands for Newfoundland.

Mr. Bennett talks about the importance of electing five NL Firsters to allow for some tough bargaining in a minority parliament.

A few things come to mind:

First, Mr. Bennett should know that there are seven seats in Newfoundland and Labrador, not five as he kept mentioning during his interview.

Second, the province includes Labrador, so that "and Labrador" thingy in the party name is important.

Third, minority parliaments have been a rarity in Canadian federal politics in recent times.  A plan built for a double rarity - minority parliament and one where five votes going as a block have some value - is pretty much useless.

Fourth, the Blochead concept is pretty much defunct.  The gommels elected for the past 18 years from Quebec - essentially working like the Creditistes of old - haven't accomplished much more, even in minority parliaments, than fatten up their individual pension plans.

Fifth, there are only two NL First candidates in the current election.  That pretty much shoots the whole campaign theory to heck. "But I'm courting four more candidates,"  Mr. Bennett told the Northern Pen.

Sixth, if the problem with the current system is that members of parliament elected to represent their constituents fall under the control of an organized political party and that party's leader and act in the party and leader's interests instead of that of their constituents, then a guy who is running who also sits on a Provincial Conservative district association is pretty much already committed to a partisan course, rather than the course desired by the constituents.

No?

-srbp-

A campaign of ideas

Instead of egos and vicious personal attacks.

What a concept.

Noob candidates - and some more knob than noob - could do with a dose of Ken Dryden's approach to campaign speechifying.

As a golfer, I can hit the ball a long way.  The problem is I can’t hit it in the right direction.  And a ball hit - decisively, competently - in the wrong direction is a ball that goes further and further and further into the woods.  History is filled with leaders who have competently, decisively gone in the wrong direction with disastrous results.

Where is Mr. Harper’s “where”?

He doesn’t seem to want to talk about that.  In making this election all about him, he is doing his best to make this election about nothing.  It’s his “Seinfeld campaign.”  But in 2008, how can that be?  This is a time when the cost of carbon economically and environmentally is forcing the world’s countries to re-imagine the future.  To reward the constructive and punish the destructive.  To act.  To change.  To create the hard-won possibilities to compete in the economy ahead.

-srbp-

Fried Greens at the Whistestops

Green Party supporters are anxiously awaiting leader Elizabeth May's whistlestop election tour of Newfoundland and most of Labrador, where there is no train.

The odd Green voter in western Labrador can wonder if May will somehow get herself to Sept Isles in Quebec and then hop an ore car to Labrador City and Wabush.

-srbp-

High tech Hijinks

Someone spoofing the Prime Minister's e-mail is serious, but funny, given that the listserv involved had a huge security loophole that should have been identified and plugged.

Thanks heavens national electronic security is in the hands of experts at the Communications Security Establishment rather than the political hacks in the current Prime Minister's Office. At least important stuff is safe.

Ya know, another Conservative first minister had a similar problem a couple of years ago.

Of course that guy had an episode earlier where he claimed someone was hacking his office.

That turned out to be someone trying to access a printer in the Provincial Conservative from another office in the same building.

The police were called.  (Did they know the truth before the police were called?)

The media were called in, too and all sorts of wild and completely unfounded accusations were tossed around.

The whole episode was more farce than anything else but the media dutifully reported the Conservative leader's Get Smart claims of a hacking attempt.

Even at the time, the whole thing looked more like part of a continuous pattern of vicious personal attacks, smears and innuendo than something to bother the police about.

But bothered they were.

The police found nothing...

...not surprisingly at all.

No charges were filed at all.

-srbp-

The charge of the light brigade

He just doesn't get it, does he?

Walter Noel, that is.

Determined to wear the House of Assembly spending scandal forever and a day.

Here's a clue, Walter:  it isn't a case of guts, even capelin guts.

It's a matter of sheer stupidity to continue to defend an abuse of public funds (along with the rest of your colleagues).

It's incomprehensibly dumb to claim that "spending was all in keeping with regulations, and approved by the highest officials of the House of Assembly"  when it's pretty clear there were no regulations of any consequence and the "highest officials" would have - and very often did - approve just about any expense claim for anything at all.

Walter Noel clearly doesn't get it, some 18 months after the rest of the world found out about the unmitigated mess in the House of Assembly.

And as long as Noel continues to shoot himself between the eyes, that's not the only thing Walter won't get come the middle of October.

-srbp-

How time flies

The year:  2004

The issue:  Premier Danny Williams legislates public servants back to work and his caucus votes to impose a two year wage freeze on them.

Unknown at the time:  At the same time, members of the House of Assembly gave themselves a bonus payment of $2800 bucks, a fact kept secret until the province's auditor general ripped the lid off.   Danny Williams didn't take the cash but he didn't stop it from going to others, either.

What Danny said about Reg:

“I don't like to use the word liar. But he's misleading and he's wrong and it's dishonest. Now that's as close as we can come."

What then NDP leader Jack Harris said about Danny:

"I’m surprised and dismayed that the Premier would launch such an attack. There is a strong body of opinion that government is exaggerating the nature of the province’s fiscal situation. And it’s pretty clear that the Price Waterhouse Report’s assumptions for the future were extremely negative. There’s also no doubt the Premier used these numbers to frighten the public and try to build support for drastic measures by government...”.

Frighten the public?

Oh dear.

Such nasty words.

How time flies.

-srbp-

Reg didn't get the memo

Lorraine Michael, provincial New Democratic party leader at her party's 2008 biennial convention:

One of the things that I hear people say, and I hear it over and over…I’ve heard it a number of times actually is ”…now you have to remember that this government is not like Ottawa. Danny [Williams] is not Stephen Harper.” And part of me says “yea, that’s true, they’re [government] not as bad.” But when I look at it, a conservative, is a conservative, is a conservative. And we’ve got to get that message across to the people in this province.

(Applause)

And I wanted to speak a bit, well not a bit as a lot of it is going to be based on that…a conservative is a conservative is a conservative. [Emphasis added]

Apparently, outgoing labour uber-boss  Reg Anstey is of a different opinion, at least as voice of the cabinet minister is reporting:

Meanwhile, the Federation of Labour is standing behind Danny Williams and his ABC campaign. President Reg Anstey says Canada run by Stephen Harper will not be kind to workers, their families, or to this province. He says Harper's agenda has the potential to be very dangerous for Newfoundland and Labrador. He says it will be a good thing if at the end of the day they send a goose egg to Ottawa. He says we've only seen the tip of what the government will look like if it gets a majority.

-srbp-

Autonomy!

The wisdom from the centre of the universe:

There is nothing to be gained from stoking federal-provincial tensions, particularly at a time when Canada is facing sweeping economic challenges that will require co-operative responses. Yet that is the likely result when provincial leaders decide that their own ponds are not big enough.

Such a definitive answer to a good question the Globe editorial writer might have asked before tapping indignantly on the keyboard.

-srbp-

Family Feud Surreality Check

"You can't run a government with a one-man show, and that's what Mr. Harper wants to do," [Bob Rae] said. "I don't think that's the way Canadians want their government to operate."

Then there's this comment by columnist Peter Pickersgill about someone else:

The premier is a great campaigner at election time. He's a great man to pick a fight. Just ask the members of the Hebron consortium or Stephen Harper. But I wouldn't accuse him of being a creative thinker or a shaper of innovative policy. That's too bad, because he's running a one-man band.

From the this is now file:

Williams also rehashed past statements Harper made in which the prime minister referred to Canada as being a "northern European welfare state" and spoke of Atlantic Canada's "culture of defeat."

"For hard-working Newfoundlanders and Labradorians ... this stereotypical slur did not sit well with any of us," Williams said.

and the that was then file:

"I think Atlantic Canadians are going to be very pleasantly surprised and pleased with the performance of Mr. Harper," said Williams.

Maybe someone should invoke names to conjure with:

Fact is, Newfoundland and Labrador hasn't had a truly effective minister in Ottawa since John Crosbie.

while conveniently forgetting how the effective fellow dealt with the Equalization issue almost 20 years ago:

"I'm getting a little tired of them trying to have their cake and throwing it up too. They can't do both."

 

-srbp-

"Reality Check" reality check on Equalization and the Family Feud

The crew that put together's CBC's usually fine "Reality Check" can be forgiven if they missed a few points by a country mile in a summary of the Family Feud.

Forgiveness is easy since the issues involved are complex and  - at least on the provincial side since 2003 - there has never been a clear statement of what was going on.  Regular Bond Papers readers will be familiar with that.  For others, just flip back to the archives for 2005 and the story is laid out there.

Let's see if we can sort through some of the high points here.

With its fragile economy, Newfoundland and Labrador has always depended on money from the federal government. When they struck oil off the coast, the federal government concluded it would not have to continue shelling out as much money to the provincial treasury. N.L.'s oil would save Ottawa money.

Not really.

Newfoundland and Labrador is no different from most provinces in the country, at least as far as Equalization goes.  Since 1957 - when the current Equalization program started - the provincial government has received that particular form of federal transfer.  So have all the others, at various times, except Ontario.  Quebec remains one of the biggest recipients of Equalization cash, if not on a per capita basis than on a total basis. Economic "fragility" has nothing to do with receiving Equalization.

In the dispute over jurisdiction over the offshore, there was never much of a dispute as far as Equalization fundamentally works.

Had Brian Peckford's view prevailed in 1983/1984, Equalization would have worked just as it always has.  As soon as the province's own source revenues went beyond the national average, the Equalization transfers would have stopped.

Period.

That didn't work out.  Both the Supreme Court of Newfoundland (as it then was called) and in the Supreme Court of Canada, both courts found that jurisdiction over the offshore rested solely with the Government of Canada.  All the royalties went with it.

In the 1985 Atlantic Accord, the Brian Mulroney and Brian Peckford governments worked out a joint management deal.  Under that agreement - the one that is most important for Newfoundland and Labrador - the provincial government sets and collects royalties as if the oil and gas were on land.

And here's the big thing:  the provincial government keeps every single penny.  It always has and always will, as long as the 1985 Accord is in force.

As far as Equalization is concerned, both governments agreed that Equalization would work as it always had.  When a provincial government makes more money on its own than the national average, the Equalization cash stops.

But...they agreed that for a limited period of time, the provincial government would get a special transfer, based on Equalization that would offset the drop in Equalization that came as oil revenues grew.  Not only was the extra cash limited in time, it would also decline such that 12 years after the first oil, there'd be no extra payment.

If the province didn't qualify for Equalization at that point, then that's all there was.  If it still fell under the average, then it would get whatever Equalization it was entitled to under the program at the time.

The CBC reality check leaves a huge gap as far as that goes, making it seem as though the whole thing came down to an argument between Danny Williams and Paul Martin and then Danny and Stephen Harper.

Nothing could be further from the truth, to use an overworked phrase.

During negotiations on the Hibernia project, the provincial government realized the formula wouldn't work out as intended. Rather than leave the provincial government with some extra cash, the 1985 deal would actually function just like there was no offset clause. For every dollar of new cash in from oil, the Equalization system would drop Newfoundland's entitlement by 97 cents, net.

The first efforts to raise this issue - by Clyde Wells and energy minister Rex Gibbons in 1990 - were rebuffed by the Mulroney Conservatives.  They didn't pussy foot around. John Crosbie accused the provincial government of biting the hand that fed it and of wanting to eat its cake and "vomit it up" as well.

It wasn't until the Liberal victory in 1993 that the first efforts were made to address the problem.  Prime Jean Chretien and finance minister Paul Martin amended the Equalization formula to give the provincial government an option of shielding up to 30% of its oil revenue from Equalization calculations.  That option wasn't time limited and for the 12 years in which the 1985 deal allowed for offsets the provincial government could always have the chance to pick the option that gave the most cash.  It only picked the wrong option once.

The Equalization issue remained a cause celebre, especially for those who had been involved in the original negotiations.  It resurfaced in the a 2003 provincial government royal commission study which introduced the idea of a clawback into the vocabulary.  The presentation in the commission reported grossly distorted the reality and the history involved. Some charts that purported to show the financial issues bordered on fraud.

Danny Williams took up the issue in 2004 with the Martin administration and fought a pitched battle - largely in public - over the issue.  He gave a taste of his anti-Ottawa rhetoric in a 2001 speech to Nova Scotia Tories. Little in the way of formal correspondence appears to have been exchanged throughout the early part of 2004.  Up to the fall of 2004 - when detailed discussions started -  the provincial government offered three different versions of what it was looking for.  None matched the final agreement.

The CBC "Reality Check" describes the 2005 agreement this way:

The agreement was that the calculation of equalization payments to Newfoundland and Labrador would not include oil revenue. As the saying goes, oil revenues would not be clawed back. Martin agreed and then-opposition leader Harper also agreed.

Simply put, that's dead wrong.

The 2005 deal provided for another type of transfer to Newfoundland and Labrador from Ottawa on top of the 1985 offset payment.  The Equalization program was not changed in any way. Until the substantive changes to Equalization under Stephen Harper 100% of oil revenues was included to calculate Equalization entitlements.  That's exactly what Danny Williams stated as provincial government policy in January 2006, incidentally.  The Harper changes hid 50% of all non-renewable resource revenues from Equalization (oil and mining) and imposed a cap on total transfers.

As for the revenues being "clawed back", one of the key terms of the 2005 deal is that the whole thing operates based on the Equalization formula that is in place at any given time. Oil revenues are treated like gas taxes, income tax, sales tax, motor vehicle registration and any other type of provincial own-source revenue, just like they have been as long as Equalization has been around.

What the federal Conservatives proposed in 2004 and 2006 as a part of their campaign platform - not just in a letter to Danny Williams - was to let all provinces hide their revenues from oil, gas and other non-renewable resources from the Equalization calculations.  The offer didn't apply just to one province.  Had it been implemented, it would have applied to all. 

That was clear enough until the Harper government produced its budget 18 months ago. What was clear on budget day became a bit murky a few days later when Wade Locke of Memorial University of Newfoundland began to take a hard look at the numbers.

Again, that's pretty much dead wrong.

It became clear shortly after Harper took office in 2006 that the 100% exclusion idea from the 2004 and 2006 campaigns would be abandoned in favour of something else.  There was nothing murky about it at all. So plain was the problem that at least one local newspaper reported on a fracas at the Provincial Conservative convention in October 2006 supposedly involving the Premier's brother and the Conservative party's national president. That's when the Family Feud started.

As for the 2007 budget bills which amended both the 1985 and 2005 agreements between Ottawa and St. John's, there's a serious question as to whether the provincial government actually consented to the amendments as required under the 1985 Atlantic Accord.

The story about Equalization is a long one and the Family Feud - a.k.a the ABC campaign - has a complex history.  There's no shame in missing some points.  It's just so unusual that CBC's "Reality Check" was so widely off base.

-srbp-

Inconsistencies ?

Brian Crawley, chief of staff, Premier's Office, in testimony at the Cameron Inquiry on the extent to which he involved himself in departmental business:

Mr. Crawley:  At this stage of the game our role would have been very much just to have been advised of it , and I would have treated this issue the same as , you know , 99 percent of the other issues that come forward , you know. It's the department's job to manage it and if there is something there we should be aware of , I would expect to be made aware of it.

Commissioner : So forgive me , but that means no role , doesn't it?

Mr. Crawley: Yeah , no role in the sense of we actually have to do anything.

[Emphasis added]

Then there's this curious extract from the memos, e-mails and other documents that show the extent of government interference in efforts to hire a new president at Memorial University.

Curious because it seems to run contrary to Crawley's assertion that his office doesn't get involved in departmental business, at least not usually.

"I understand Brian C[rawley] will have called you on behalf of the Premier with the details."

That's a reference to the Premier's chief of staff and a call Crawley apparently made to education minister Joan Burke "on behalf of the Premier."

 

-srbp-

 

Stalled!

And how long will it take some people to notice the flat lines?

That Family Feud thing is really having an effect on the election campaign.

-srbp-

Layton to Danny: Anything you want

The first response is in to the latest round of begging letters to Ottawa, to quote Jack Harris, and if Danny William endorses any federal leader this time out, Jack's likely to get the nod. 

Jack Layton said "yes" to pretty much everything Danny Williams asked for.

What a shock.

The first letter begs for cash.

The reply begs for votes.

Anyway, Jack Layton's NDP will campaign to restore air force training in Goose Bay which would be exactly the training Jack Layton campaigned against in 1994 and his party has worked against federally since then.

Layton even lifts a page from the 2006 and 2008 Conservative election platform, promising to create a "territorial defence battalion" - whatever that is - in St. John's.

Jack even agrees to get involved in a thinly disguised request for financial assistance to a troubled private sector land development on the island's west coast.  That would be the "Air Access" bit of the begging letter.

Apparently unregistered lobbyists for private companies don't bother the Orange crew when votes are at stake.

Ethics, schmethics.

Take power out of the hands of lobbyists and ensure all decisions are made in the open by:

• Obligating lobbyists to file annually a declaration of their political work.
• Toughen penalties for violations of the Lobbyists Registration Act.
• Ensuring lobbyists’ fees are disclosed and profit-based contingency fees banned.

Talk about desperate.  The NDP war room must be quickly hiding all those posters railing against corporate welfare bums.

Jack is a bit cute, though.

He complete ignores the Williams demand on Equalization, just giving a short, vague comment. That's okay, Bond Papers readers already found out about the Orange Rod.

Layton praises the equity stake in offshore oil now owned by the province but neglects to mention that an NDP government would busily suck away more cash from the corporation to Ottawa.

So Layton stands a good chance of getting Danny's blessing.

Of course, since Williams has already endorsed  - and then shagged over - first the Liberals and then his federal brothers and sisters in the Conservatives, the New Democrats are pretty much the only ones left of the major parties he hasn't introduced to his own shaft.

-srbp-

Speaking of unrealized potential

The Halifax Chronicle Herald editorialists might want to check the polls before they write editorials.

The Provincial Conservative Family Feud with their federal cousins "has the potential to catch on" outside Newfoundland and Labrador?

Oh.

Heh. Heh.

Potential.

But then there's this sort of stuff:

He doesn’t just want to play the role of petulant premier. So he has widened his focus. Instead of simply hammering away at Newfoundland and Labrador’s concerns – a strategy that has limited appeal beyond the island – Mr. Williams has elevated himself into a de facto leader of the opposition by mounting a concerted attack on Stephen Harper on all fronts.

Evidently, the Herald's editorial crew hasn't been paying attention to anything at all in this province, let alone polls.

-srbp-

The Jack Harris Legacy

Labrador activist Jan Dymond has supported the NDP in the past, and considered running for the party in this election, but she just started a new job.

Dymond said having someone from outside Labrador run in this election is an insult, and the party should do more to build grassroots support between elections.

Apparently, there's a problem for the New Democrats in Labrador.

Maybe someone should ask former provincial leader Jack Harris - currently running for the part in St. John's East - for some ideas on building the party.

-srbp-

A study in contrasts

Dalton McGuinty shuffles his cabinet on the eve of the fall sitting of the legislature.

Meanwhile in another province,  the fall sitting of the legislature is off for at least another month and maybe two.

And a cabinet shuffle?  It's in the works according to some sources but with this ABC Family Feud taking up so much time, odds are good it won't happen until after Thanksgiving.

Don't be surprised if the House opening in that easternmost province is put off with the excuse that ministers a chance to get up to speed on their new responsibilities.

Sounds familiar.

-srbp-

$794 million deficit: the ABCs of provincial government budgeting

If crude oil averages US$87 per barrel through the current fiscal year (ending 31 March 2009) and the government performs exactly as budgeted in every other respect too, the provincial government will wind up with a deficit of more than $794 million this year.

That's right.

Almost eight hundred million dollars in the hole.

It's not a state secret.

Your humble e-scribbler did not have to go through any contortions - mental or otherwise - to figure it out.

The figures are there, in black and white, in the provincial government's current budget.  Hidden in plain sight, you might say.

But no, some of you are saying, the provincial government is forecasting a surplus of a half a billion dollars. The media reported it in April and they've kept saying it so it must be true.

Yes, the did and they have.

But that isn't the official budget of the provincial government approved in the House of Assembly any more than all the talk by politicians about surpluses the past few years was accurate either.

That forecast was done separately by the department of finance and repeated by the finance minister countless times.  It is based - evidently - on the hope that oil would actually spend most of the year well north of US$87. They were hoping on oil revenues being almost double the $1.7 billion used to make up the budget. An extra $1.3 billion would wipe out the forecast deficit and leave another $500 million or so besides.

The recent drop in oil prices below US$100 could throw that hope out the window, coming as it does a little less than half way through the fiscal year.  Oil would have to drop quite a bit further than its current price in the mid nineties to wipe the anticipated surplus out entirely, but don't count on there being too much cash left in the till next April.

There are a couple of reasons for that beyond the drop in revenues compared to the Atlantic City dice roll projections. 

For starters, if revenues are already up by about $800 million or so, government might be able to bring in something close to a balanced budget. Any less than that and something's gotta give to stay in the black.

The other thing is that - contrary to the popular view - government hasn't actually produced a real surplus in three years.  Again, eyes are rolling, but all you have to do to see the truth is look at the government's annual financial statements.

Last year, for example, the government spent every nickel it originally budgeted, every penny of the $1.5 billion surplus and on top of that had to borrow another $88 million just to make ends meet.

Just to make it really plain, that table above is  taken from a Bond Papers post last June that lays the whole thing out in a picture.

This administration, like pretty well all the ones before, likes to spend public cash.  If there isn't enough coming in, hitting up the banks is just as good as money earned in other ways.

As the Auditor General pointed out in his report earlier this year, the provincial government has consistently boosted public spending based on the mountains of oil cash flowing.

They've  built the province's spending on some pretty shaky ground, namely highly volatile commodity prices.

At the same time, very little attention has been paid to paying down the large amount of debt - the accumulated deficits - that now runs upwards of $8.5 billion and is expected to climb higher this year.

That's the table at right, with the figures taken from the finance department's budget document, The Estimates.

For those of you whose mind has not just boggled into the "off" position, this has some pretty significant implications for what is going on in the province.

The province's finance minister told reporters today that salary expectations from groups like the nurses are based on high oil prices.

No, they aren't. 

High public expectations for new spending and public sector union salary demands are based on the government hype about its own financial plans and its own cash flows.  The people of the province believed all the stuff about surpluses and happy days finally being here. They believed because that is what they were told by politicians.

People have even been lulled into believing that the Hebron project - all $28 supposed billion of it  - is coming right along any day now. 

The reality is starkly different.

Oil revenues will decline over the next decade because of dwindling production and prices that are returning to something approaching the norm.  The three existing fields will be well on the way to shutting down by the time Hebron gets into production.

Rather than adding to current cash flows - as most people likely believe - Hebron will simply take up some of the slack from that dwindling production.  If construction starts on Hebron in 2012, the cash from its oil won't hit provincial coffers until about a decade from now.

The reality is that the next decade is going to be considerably more difficult than people imagined;  difficult that is for the provincial government.  They have made a rod to beat their own backs by creating a climate of expectations that simply can't be met with likely revenues.  At the same time - through the energy corporation and the equity stakes - they've committed to a steady stream of new government borrowing over and above what it may cost to sustain the existing spending levels after the oil money drops off.

There's nothing overly complicated about the whole business.  The information is readily available to anyone who cares to look.

Understanding what is going on today and what looks very likely to happen?

Well, that's as easy as A-B-C.

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Goose to get Hornets?

Goose Bay might soon be home to an unspecified number of CF-18 Hornets, according to David Pugliese.

Lots of anger there as you can see, although I don’t know how shocked they could be since I’ve reporting since April 2007 that the recommendation from CANSOFCOM is that JTF2 should move to Trenton.

So will anything ever be done about Goose Bay? I’m told a plan might be in the works to station a small number of CF-18s at the base for Northern sovereignty patrols. That would have a double impact in the sense it would show the Conservative government is acting on its commitments to defend Arctic sovereignty while at the same time doing something for Goose Bay.

It probably doesn’t make military sense but it would indeed be “win win” for the Conservatives and get people off the government’s back on the Goose Bay issue. No word, however, on when this might happen and whether it will even get beyond the planning stages (who knows what the bean counters are going to say on the cost of this proposal).

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The CBC makeover

First Denise Donlon.

Second, Mansbridge is sidelined in favour of J.D Roberts.

What's that?

Never heard of J.D. Roberts?

That's because he went south of the border, lost the mullet and had a total makeover.

Now they call him John Roberts.

And since Mercer and Murphy are getting kinda stale, Denise can vastly improve the national news. Citytv is about to drop its highly opinionated sock.

He'd likely sign on to a new gig in exchange for a regular tumble in the dryer. 

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Sure ABC isn't partisan

A faithful pitcher plant called one of the radio call in shows today continuing the My ABC claim. 

That is, the whole Danny Williams ABC Family Feud is not partisan and not all about Danny Williams.  It's a movement for the people by the people.

There you have it.

But if that's the case and ABC is not a partisan thing, then someone needs to explain why the registered agent for the "campaign" is the president of the Provincial Conservative party and the address listed for it with Elections Canada is the address for the Provincial Conservative party's treasurer and the domain is registered by the Provincial Conservative party with the party's executive director listed as the contact?

Truth is, ABC isn't run by nor is it about the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador.

Heck, truth is it can't even claim to be speaking on behalf of the people of Newfoundland and Labrador.

Truth is ABC isn't anything but (Provincial) Conservative.

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The ABC campaign we can all support

anythingbutconservative.com.

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An ominous choice of words on ABC

“This is the election that could make and break relations between Newfoundland and Canada forever.”

- John Babb, president of the Provincial Conservative party,

Registered representative of the ABC campaign

VOCM Backtalk, Friday, August 29, 2008

 

Maybe the real objective of the ABC isn't what people claim it is. After all, it apparently isn't about giving the Harper crew a goose egg, at least if we can believe the ABC movement's leader, one Danny Williams.

Nope.

Maybe there's reason to ask Mr. Babb, the registered representative of the campaign with Elections Canada, just exactly what he meant by those words.

-srbp-

 

 

 

 

Crude nears 90; likely to slide further

On Tuesday, crude futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange traded up slightly but still settled in below US$93 a barrel for October delivery.

That's still US$10 below where it was two days ago. Oil is down almost 40% from July and slide 10% in the past two days alone.

With the growing economic slump, demand is expected to lessen further increasing the downward pressure on oil prices.

“I guess the market was telling us it never belonged at the $100 level in the first place and got there on a lot of hype,” said Peter Beutel, energy analyst at Cameron Hanover, New Canaan, Conn.

Refined gasoline futures hit $2.40 a gallon the NYMEX according to the Globe on Tuesday.

More to follow.

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ABC Comedy Central - Masters of our own domain

where the truth is stranger than fiction

The UnLove Boat - In the season premiere of a series now in its 60th season, a provincial cabinet minister (played again this season by Provincial Conservative Clyde Jackman) bitches and moans incessantly about the quality of service provided by Marine Atlantic.

Yes, we know that's the same format, script and concept for every single episode of the longest running unreality show in political history.  Jackman managed to come up with a novel twist to open this season:  blaming a federal Conservative candidate for driving up the cost of gasoline worldwide and causing a North American economic slowdown, both of which were the real major causes for the reduction in road-bound tourism.

Highlights from last season:  In an episode titled The law of diminishing visitor returns, Jackman showed that doubling the provincial tourism advertising budget didn't produced the extra visitors everyone hoped for.

Yes, that's right, non-resident visitors, the people most of us would regard as tourists, actually contributed only 43% of the total economic activity generated by the province's tourism industry. ... We are spending more per visitor to attract them, but the return per visitor is diminishing.

In an episode called Didn't I see those at Canadian Tire?, Jackman's department bought a billboard at Ottawa airport that was billed as including "an actual clothesline hung with quilts".  It was based on the idea that people in eastern Ontario have never seen either quilts or clotheslines, apparently, hence they would be impressed by "actual" ones.


5 Wing:  In the season opener - Shocked and Odd - Provincial Conservative cabinet minister Tom Hedderson writes letters trying to get an elite anti-terror unit based in Goose Bay 18 months after the public learned the soldiers were going to another base in Canada.  Hedderson claims to be shocked by the news. Odd that he missed it.

Hedderson replaced the previous star John Hickey in the no-action comedy.

House:  Now in its fifth season,  less and less takes place in each House episode each year as the program morphs into a show about nothing.  In the budget episode from last season, finance minister Tom Marshall uttered the immortal words:

We are standing tall as powerful contributors to the federation – as masters of our own domain, stronger and more secure than we have ever been before.

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Replay 2008 round-up

1.  To start, a recommendation: go check nottawa's latest jab at the whole ABC thing.  He's got a thought about a missing quote that's worth pondering.

2. Has anyone noticed the morphing messages from the ABC corner? First there was the shifting goal - no longer about the goose egg;  now just about "the principle", what with the polls showing that Danny Williams' ABC was producing such a devastating effect on polls not just in this province but across Canada. That just makes it easy to claim victory even when Fabian Manning heads back to Ottawa, even though the goal was always to deliver a goose egg to the Conservatives.

BTW, evidently someone forgot to tell Jerome Kennedy that the goal had changed in time for Kennedy's appearance on Night Line. He was in full flight on a local open line show when he blurted out the goose egg line.  yes, we know Jerome.  It's hard to stop on a dime and shift directions.

Now it's the My ABC.  In response to accusations from the federal Conservatives that Danny Williams and his team are twisting arms and threatening people, the Provincial Conservatives are deploying their troops - Jerome was a lead this week - to insist that Danny had nothing to do with anything, the whole campaign is their campaign.  Nice marketing touch but highly unconvincing given that the guy came up with the idea, has been pushing it relentlessly, sent e-mails to make sure everyone in his caucus was on side and has bitchslapped cabinet ministers who dared question the wisdom of ABC publicly.

Nope.  No.  Nosirreee Bob.  No intimidation there.

3.  Speaking of Shawn Skinner, word is the minister made to humiliate himself publicly for daring to go off the message track is knocking doors for Siobhan Coady in St. John's South-Mount Pearl. Don't worry Shawn; there's a cabinet shuffle soon.

4.  Decisions, decisions. The drums along the highway running through Avalon make it sound like some Liberals are hard pressed in their choices.  As much as they want to vote for Liberal Scott Andrews, they'd have more fun sending Fabe back to Ottawa just to rub Danny's nose in it. Recommendation:  Don't vote for anyone who calls the province "NewfoundlandLabrador".

5.  Meanwhile, in St. John's East, some voters are wondering if they couldn't score a double play on one vote:  elect Westcott.  That would likely make the Premier's head explode while at the same time setting everything up for Westcott to tackle Harper, as he inevitably would.

6.  At least one mayor is now sending out begging letters to Ottawa. Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.  Well, maybe that or just another guy looking to horn in on somebody else's spotlight. 

7.  Takes one to know one.  Memorial University political science professor Michael Temelini on Craig Westcott's candidacy: ""Is the real Craig Westcott the one who was critical of Stephen Harper, or is it one who seems to be now abandoning all of his critical faculties and toadying up to the prime minister?" What happened to university professors who tried to be analytical in their comments instead of taking sides in a partisan fight?

 

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Turn the page

Campaigns that are purely negative don't work.

Relentless bile just doesn't get people to turn out to the polls and vote for something. 

People need something to vote for.

The federal and provincial Conservatives started out this campaign in an all-negative series of vicious personal attacks.   Provincial Conservatives attacked Stephen Harper.  Harper attacked Stephane Dion.  The only difference was the target.

But this video - one of the latest from the Liberals - is the kind of stuff that actually starts to make voters look twice. 

It offers a positive, upbeat message while at the same time conveying critical comment about the key opponent's position. 

The thread that runs through this spot is change.  It's titled "Turn the page", as in leave the past behind and move forward.

If you want to get a truly stark contrast in messages - even allowing for different formats - compare this commercial with the Danny Williams' speech from last week. 

Gutteral, angry and clearly focused on vengeance for past wrongs.  Take a look at any federal Conservative comment on Stephane Dion. Nasty and personal;  stinking of animosity.

Then look at this again.

There aren't two more starkly different ideas or approaches.

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ABC? Meet Elections Canada

Here are a few issues that appear to have been left unexplored for this election campaign in Newfoundland and Labrador:

1. The Canada Elections Act provides restrictions on advertising by third parties.  In this case, the Provincial Conservative Party counts as a third party.  There are caps, indexed for inflation. There's an excellent summary from Elections Canada as well as a handbook.

2.  A third party must apply to Elections Canada and be registered once it has incurred advertising expenses of more than $500. the ABC website would exceed that requirement if assessed at fair market rates for website design.

3.  "A third party may not be registered under a name that, in the opinion of the Chief Electoral Officer, is likely to be confused with the name of a candidate, registered party, registered third party or eligible party."

-  Progressive Conservative Association of Newfoundland and Labrador

-  Conservative Party of Canada

-  Progressive Canadian Party.

Go figure if that would count as confusing.

4.  As of 2130 hours Newfoundland time on 15 September, the PC Association of Newfoundland and Labrador is not listed on the Elections Canada website as a registered  third party. [dead link.  Go here and click on "Registered Third Parties"]

Update:  Someone over at the Provincial Conservative Party office got on the ball and registered the "ABC Campaign" as a third party under the Canada Elections Act. Note the effective date:  September 16.  It's not like this thing hasn't been on the go since October 2006 or anything.

Let's wander back through the list of registered third parties and see who was more on the ball than the ABC crew:

The first name on the list (as of 16 September at 2200) would be the Provincial Conservative party, doing political business as ABC.  Then there is Kevin Grandia, an environmental activist.  He registered on September 9.  Next comes Les sans-chemise. They registered on the 8th.

After that came Stephen Harper's old palls at the National Citizens Coalition (September 10) and the Professional Institute of the Public Service on September 13.

For those who don't know, John Babb is the president of the Provincial Conservative Party, in whose name the domain for the ABC website is registered.

No thanks necessary, John.  Your humble e-scribbler is happy he got the thing legally squared away.

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Provincial Conservatives launch ABC website

anythingbutconservative.ca

The domain is registered to the Progressive Conservative Party of Newfoundland and Labrador.  [Purely coincidental update:  Site goes live late on September 15.  Bond Papers notes the Elections Canada rules.  By midnight, Newfoundland time, the site is now described as being authorized by the financial officer for the ABC campaign, not the PC Association of Newfoundland and Labrador as it was originally.]

It's basically a rehash of material that could be found on any of number of any other websites over the past four years. In fact, the links page contains links to all the better websites.

Makes you wonder why the Provincial Conservatives  behind the website supported the federal Conservatives in 2004 and 2006.

Given that it's a political party intervening in the federal campaign, it will be interesting to see the public accounting of their efforts through Elections Canada.

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Churchill Falls: facts versus stuff that isn't factual

[revised 05 Sept 09]

Justice minister Jerome Kennedy referred to it.

Bill Rowe - former Smallwood era cabinet minister, the first Man in a Blue Line Cab and current talk show host at voice of the cabinet minister - tossed out the supposed refusal by the Government of Canada in the 1960s to grant poor, beleaguered Newfoundland a power corridor through Quebec back in the 1960s. In a conversation with some caller from Ontario, Rowe used the corridor story as an example of one of the Grievances Against Ottawa.

They are factual or based on facts, Rowe insisted, or words to that effect.

Well, there are facts. That is things which have been established to be true and accurate based on research and evidence.

And then there is stuff that isn't factual.

Like the myth of the power corridor and the refusal.

The only - that's right the only - publicly available account of the issue available appears to be a research paper by Jason Churchill for the Vic Young Royal Commission several years ago. Odds are good most of the people running around telling the facts haven't read Churchill's account, which is, it should be noted, based on considerable research.

Churchill argues that "the Quebec negotiators were aided by successive federal governments that both actively and passively failed to enact legislative measures which would have granted Newfoundland and Labrador unfettered access to the North American energy markets."

In making that statement, though, Churchill notes that at the time - chiefly 1964-1966 - the Government of Canada lacked any coherent national electricity policy. As such it is difficult to lay blame or responsibility for subsequent events solely at the feet of the federal government. Incidentally, Churchill's source on the lack of a coherent policy is no less an authority than John Crosbie saying exactly that.

The Diefenbaker administration proposed a national electricity grid in 1962. Quebec - and Newfoundland - opposed the idea as being solely within the sphere of provincial sovereignty under the constitution.

For his part - as Churchill notes - Smallwood preferred to develop Churchill Falls through the privately-owned BRINCO and quite evidently with Quebec as the partner. Smallwood wasn't prepared to have the federal government take control of a provincial area of responsibility.

However, "[f]ormer provincial and federal cabinet minister John Crosbie stated that when Smallwood rejected Levesque’s nationalisation offer, 'a golden opportunity disappeared'. The argument being that had the project been jointly developed, the subsequent profits would have also been shared equitably [between Newfoundland and Quebec]."

At this point in the narrative, though it is worth quoting Churchill's account in it's entirety. His version is succinct even though the issues are complex. Incidentally, the numbers in the text refer to footnotes in the original.

In the summer of 1965, the previous question of nationalisation of BRINCO was solved for Levesque by the federal government. Despite Smallwood’s refusal to nationalize BRINCO, a cheaper mill rate was secured for Hydro-Quebec when the Public Utilities Income [Tax Transfer] Act was changed. There was a 50 per cent to 95 per cent increase in the transfer to the provinces of taxes collected from utility companies. Newfoundland and Labrador passed the additional savings on to BRINCO which consequently allowed the Corporation to sell electricity to Hydro-Quebec at a reduced price.(31)

This federal action did not improve Newfoundland’s disadvantaged bargaining position. In 1966, a frustrated Smallwood lashed out and threatened to bypass the Quebec government and appeal directly to Prime Minister Lester Pearson to declare the Churchill Falls project to be in the national interest. Smallwood drafted a letter for the Prime Minister formally requesting:

the Government of Canada to invoke Paragraph (c) of Clause 10 of Section 92 of the British North America Act. If the Government of Canada would proceed forthwith to build a transmission line from Churchill Falls to a point where it would tie in with power grids in Eastern Canada it would ensure an immediate start on the construction of the Churchill Falls power project itself. In that case the power would be in production and available to consumers in Canada in 1971. (32)

This declaration would have enabled the federal government to transcend provincial jurisdiction.(33) Theoretically, this would have allowed for the construction of transmission lines through Quebec and directly to the markets [elsewhere] in Canada and the New England states. However, based on available evidence, it does not appear that the request was ever formally presented.

Former BRINCO President, Henry Borden, claimed that he and associates convinced Smallwood to defer making the request until news of Quebec’s response to a proposal was received. The positive response from Quebec in October 1966 made Smallwood’s request irrelevant. Another explanation given by former Smallwood cabinet minister and long-time friend, Frederick Rowe, argued that fears of Quebec nationalist terrorism was enough to dissuade Smallwood from proceeding. (34)

Of the various explanations presented, the one most relevant to the potential role of the federal government was related by Newfoundland and Labrador lawyer, Cabot Martin, who had interviewed Smallwood. Martin was told the Premier met Pearson personally to discuss the option but was rejected before he could formally present the request. Smallwood stated:

Mr. Pearson said, ‘Joe, I know why you are here and if you ask me I’ll have to say yes, otherwise we would not really be a country. But I’m asking you not to ask me because we will not be able to keep the towers up.’ Joey paused, then looked at me as if to ask ‘What would you have done?’ and said ‘So I didn’t ask him.’35

There are two major implications of the stories related above. The first is that Newfoundland’s interest was set-aside in the name of national unity and due to fears of nationalist violence in Quebec. If this is so, subsequent ramifications of the eventual 1969 contract illustrate that the province has paid, and continues to pay, a phenomenal price for its contribution to national unity. The second implication is that the ultimate power to make the request still resided with Smallwood who appeared to have the option of pressing the issue further. It was Smallwood who decided to either wait for a Quebec response, and/or not ask Pearson due to fears of the consequences of his request to have the project declared in the national interest.

When Smallwood did not press the issue of establishing a power corridor through Quebec, the province failed to achieve a stronger bargaining position for BRINCO with Hydro-Quebec. Despite the difficulties inherent in negotiating at a disadvantaged position, a Letter of Intent was signed in October 1966 which allowed construction to begin at the Churchill Falls site.(36)

In his account, Churchill does not make plain how the entire situation can be laid solely at the feet of the federal government.

The matter is, in fact, considerably more complex. Churchill shows in several key places, for example, where decisions taken by Smallwood and others facilitated the bargaining position subsequently taken by Quebec.

Moreover, while Churchill includes original documentary evidence for some of the discussion, his only source for the Pearson refusal is a 1996 article by former Peckford era policy advisor Cabot Martin published six years after Smallwood died and some 15 years after Smallwood had suffered a debilitating stroke.

Smallwood's memoir, I chose Canada, contains a reference (pp.466-467) to such a request. The account notes that Smallwood had lunch with J.W. Pickersgill and John Turner and discussed the request for the Government of Canada to declare the project of national importance under section 92 of the constitution.

There is no reference whatsoever to any discussion with Pearson at that point, September 12, 1966. Smallwood inserts in his memoir - essentially extracts from his desk diary for the period - a discussion of the potential problems with a corridor through Quebec, including safety from attacks by terrorists and it is at that point he makes a comment quoted by Churchill in his footnotes the value of the national designation. Smallwood makes an additional comment, which Churchill did not use, which may give a clue to Smallwood's own preference in bargaining with Quebec:

The threat might, however, be more effectual than reality. It was much like our repeated threat to nationalize (BRINCO).

The letter to which Churchill refers was drafted on September 29 and, as Churchill notes, appears to have gone unsent. In other words, the power corridor idea appears to have been a bargaining ploy by Smallwood.

None of this means that Cabot Martin's account of what Smallwood supposedly told him later in life is wrong or false either. By the time Smallwood and Martin spoke, details of the disastrous 1969 deal had already become part of the provincial political culture as the symbol of resource give-aways. Smallwood may well have mis-remembered events almost two decades earlier for any of a number of understandable reasons.

For example, it would be far better to blame Ottawa - an old provincial politician's trick - or leave the impression, as Churchill suggests as one possible explanation, that Smallwood made the only decision he could in order to save the nation. Subsequent events notwithstanding, Smallwood was not prepared to risk the country he'd chosen for what he had described in his memoir as a risky proposition in the first place. Smallwood's account turns a failed bargaining ploy and its ignoble consequences into the noble self-sacrifice of a statesman and, by extension, his beleaguered people.

No matter how one looks at it, the available evidence does not support the claim, no matter how much the story is handed around, that the federal government refused a demand to invoke a constitutional provision and force a power corridor through Quebec.

The power corridor story has become, like the entire Churchill Falls saga, nothing more than a convenient story to be trotted out by politicians past and present when it suits their purposes.

The story, however, is no more factual than any other fairy tale.

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Dion: money and new ideas for the fishery

At an announcement in St. John's today, Liberal leader Stephane Dion pledged to invest in the fishing industry, including:

. $70 million to retire core commercial harvesting licences for fishermen and women who want to get out of the business.

. $250 million for a Green Fisheries and Transport Fund that would provide rebates and incentives for investments in the latest technologies to cut fuel consumption and to help finance modernization of fishing vessels and on-shore equipment to make them more energy efficient.

. $100 million to improve small craft harbours across Canada, including $25 million for harbours in Canada's north.

. A pledge to try to establish the first international protected area for the vital cod nursery to prevent foreign over-fishing of the Tail of the Grand Banks.

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Government gas price fixing explained

Well, sort of.

There's no point in having a provincial government price fixing analyst try and explain why the system of government price fixing for oil works. 

He only knows how it works.

Sort of.

Something missed in the interview with CBC this morning:  if David Hillier and his colleagues use spot pricing to set fix the price of gas in Newfoundland and Labrador, then what about companies that bought futures last at considerably less than the current spot price price?

We really didn't get that in his talk about supply and demand (an Economics 101 example with lumber).

There may be good reason for the current spike in prices.  The major problem seems to be that consumers in Newfoundland and Labrador won't get the advantage of lower prices which will comeas Gulf coast refineries come back on stream.  Won't get it like we haven't seen drops lately when 25% of refining capacity wasn't shut down but, all the same, gas prices didn't meet whatever triggers there are in arcane formula the gas price fixers use that would actually send gas prices down.

You see, market forces -  supply and demand and simple competition in the marketplace  - will move prices up and down on their own. It's Economics 101.

We don't need a bureaucratic apparatus - way too cumbersome, undoubtedly unwieldy, and completely inscrutable - to fix gas prices in the marketplace.

That's more like State Planning 101 from 1920s Russia.  We all know how effective that model of economics worked.

Well, that is if the "we" is consumers.

We consumers can get along just fine without government gas price fixing.

This government gas price fixing  scheme makes you wonder who the "we" is the this thing is set up for.

Makes you wonder about that almost more than why it is that the cabinet minister responsible for the price fixing scheme isn't on the air defending it.

Maybe we can ask the guy who introduced this price fixing scam to the province in the first place.

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Dion's in town

The first bit of his schedule is at liberal.ca.

Some announcements on fisheries and offshore revenues, according to news media.

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Full moon and a call to arms

Justice minister Jerome Kennedy took time to call the Sunday evening talk show at the voice of the cabinet minister to lambaste Stephen Harper and the federal Conservatives.  He insisted, among other things, that the Family Feud was embraced by all Provincial Conservatives including him.

Fair enough.

It is a family feud, after all and Kennedy is part of one branch of the family doing the feuding.

In the course of his lengthy rant, Kennedy hit on a litany of supposed injustices done to Newfoundland and Labrador by Uncle Ottawa over the years.  Included among the old chestnuts was a reference to something that supposedly took place in 1931. 

Kennedy didn't elaborate.

The whole thing sounded like a call to the barricades.

But 1931?

How about Blaine-Bond, anyone?

If the Airing of Grievances is going back to 1931  - 18 years before Newfoundland and Labrador was a Canadian province - it's likely only a matter of time before the minister of justice finds some Great Injustice in a time before Canada even really existed.

And when was the last time d'Iberville's campaign in Newfoundland used for political purposes around these parts?

Generally, there had been little friction between French and English fishermen in the 1600s. There was growing friction, however, in that century between France and England, and the hostility between the two countries often spilled into Newfoundland. The winter campaign of Pierre Le Moyne d'Iberville in 1696-1697, which resulted in the destruction of almost all of the English settlements in Newfoundland, was simply the most sensational demonstration of this fact. Eventually, because of military and strategic successes elsewhere in North America and around the world, the French agreed to recognize British sovereignty over Newfoundland.

There's an interesting connection in that story, by the way.  D'Iberville raided along the coast of Newfoundland until he reached Carbonear - in the district Kennedy represents - only to find the residents had taken refuge on a nearby island which they had fortified sufficiently to defend against D'Iberville's attacks.

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Yawn

Harper was in town on Saturday.

Just a bit of In-out, In-out.

And a candidate whose sign people can't even spell his own name.

 

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Family Feud? Try blood feud.

The local media are strangely silent the day of Stephen Harper's visit to the province. The prime minister comes to the province and not a single story graces the website of the Telly, CBC or the voice of the (provincial) cabinet minister. [Update: The Telly posted an extremely short story after 9:00 PM. VO updated at some point this evening but it isn't clear when.]

Okay, it's not like it's the first time a huge local story has been missed by the locals for one reason or another , only to be picked up by the national types and then covered locally later on.

Like this report from CTV's Bob Fife. Watch the video, even if you have to listen to Jim Morgan.

It doesn't matter if the accusations of heavy-handed tactics by the Provincial Conservatives are true or not. The point is that the charges are being made at all and made hard by the federal Conservatives on national news media.

Danny Williams already backpedaled on the ABC campaign's objectives today, likely setting up for a possible win by manning in Avalon. It's a tight race but you never know what can happen. Better to change the objectives to allow for something other than the total victory you wanted only a couple of days ago, you know, just in case.

In the meantime, the federal Conservatives have decided to play their own form of hardball. Even Stephen Harper's use of the Williams campaign slogan in 2007 is designed to get under the Premier's skin.

This is not a family feud. It's rapidly turning into a blood feud.

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What a difference it makes when you pay attention

First a link to Rex Murphy on The National in October 2007, with the references to Danny Williams being in the political sweet spot not found by a politician in Newfoundland and Labrador since Joe Smallwood. About three quarters of the way through there is a discussion of Stephen Harper. Williams seemed to have been unaware of speeches and other public comments until then; Murphy and Williams chuckle a lot. The tone is light with much emphasis on the political triumph for Williams and the economic miracle which seemed to be linked to it and him.

Murphy produced a glorious homage, right down to the line early on in which Williams attributes his popularity to his embodying the heart and soul of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians.

Fast forward to this Saturday and a column in the Globe and Mail entitled "Danny boy has gone too far." Murphy's words are scathing:

This "standing up for Newfoundland" palaver is best administered in small doses, if at all. And it never fits the mouth of the person doing the "standing up." Furthermore, a difference of opinion, a clash of party interests, should never be categorized as a clash of patriotism. There is a jingoism of small places as well as of large. And Newfoundland is more susceptible to it than most. Newfoundlanders are ferociously fond of Newfoundland, but that very affection can play havoc with our judgment and our politics.

The final three paragraphs summarize as well as any might exactly what some in this province have been saying publicly and increasingly more are saying privately since 2004:

It's not Mr. Williams's quarrel with Stephen Harper that's at question. It's hauling into that quarrel all the rhetoric of "disloyalty" to Newfoundland, stirring the jingoistic fevers, and characterizing those on the other side as unworthy. Newfoundlanders have been lucky in past decades that, when we had strong premiers, we had strong ministers in Ottawa.

Danny Williams has reached such supremacy, however, that he has effectively become the only voice in Newfoundland politics. Mr. Hearn is gone. John Crosbie is in honorific heaven. And now there's only Danny. That's bad for us. It's bad for him, too, should he care to think about it.

He should look over history's shoulder and take in what happened to Joey Smallwood, a great premier who subtracted from his own legacy by succumbing to the vanity of power, the great corrosive self-flattery of believing that being in charge is the same thing as always being right.

Murphy is indeed right, but then again, regular readers will have heard similar arguments even if they were less elegantly expressed. Unfortunately, now that the cult of personality has met political hegemony, Murphy can only stand by for inevitable round of insults and accusations which have met everyone else who has dared to challenge the new orthodoxy.

It is perhaps just good enough that Murphy finally took a hard look at his home province. It is amazing what a difference it makes when one merely pays attention.

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The best versus the rest

Nik Nanos has shown through several elections that his public opinion research is second to none for accuracy. Nik is back doing analysis for CPAC, the cable parliamentary channel for this federal election.

Odd then that people seem to have ignored it thus far in favour of all the usual suspects.

You can find the results of his latest research at nikonthenumbers.com or nanosresearch.com.

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ABC release shows government officials lack google skills?

What was it that St. John's East New Democratic candidate Jack Harris said when the provincial industry department - then headed by Kathy Dunderdale - missed some problems with one of the companies it was dealing with, problems that were easily found by an Internet search?

Oh yeah, he said google was "due diligence for dummies."

Ouch.

Well, that inability to do a simple Internet search  might explain why the provincial government's intergovernmental affairs minister  - Tom Hedderson - issued a length news release Friday to attack the federal government for plans to move the elite anti-terrorist team JTF 2 to Trenton, Ontario not Goose Bay as the provincial government was suggesting recently.

The JTF 2-to-Goose Bay idea cropped up in the latest round of begging letters to Ottawa from the provincial government, to borrow yet another Jack Harris phrase.

The Government of Newfoundland and Labrador is shocked that the government of Prime Minister Stephen Harper has willfully disregarded another opportunity to strengthen defence presence at 5 Wing Goose Bay. The reaction came in light of the recent announcement of $500 million in funding to support the relocation of Joint Task Force 2 (JTF 2) from Ottawa to Trenton, Ontario. This announcement was released without fanfare just two days before the call of a federal election.

Odd.

The provincial government is shocked?

It's not like it's been a big secret.

But it certainly is shocking to see a provincial cabinet minister admitting publicly he sent letters to the federal defence minister as recently as June 2008  proposing JTF 2 be based in Goose Bay apparently not knowing the decision on JTF 2's future home had already been made 18 months beforehand.

That makes Hedderson look stunned or even incompetent. 

The federal government decided to relocate JTF 2 from its current base at Dwyer Hill, just outside Ottawa, to a new addition to the base at Trenton Ontario back in late 2006.  The story broke in the Ottawa Citizen  - dated January 2007 - in a story by widely respected defence correspondent David Pugliese.

Plans for the expansion were also reported by Pugliese in January 2008:

Defence Construction Canada, a Crown corporation that handles the Defence Department's building needs, is asking for "expressions of interest" from contractors and consultants for the development of what it calls a multi-functional training and administrative campus.

The new facility is to be in "Eastern Ontario," with the specific location considered secret at this point, according to the information provided so far to construction and engineering contractors. But Chief of the Defence Staff Gen. Rick Hillier has recommended to cabinet that JTF2's new base be located at Canadian Forces Base Trenton.

Public Works and Government Services Canada has already purchased three properties adjacent to CFB Trenton for the Defence Department.

The operational reasoning behind the move is something Pugliese also covered.  it's worth noting because the provincial government's whole pitch on Goose Bay has been about pork and entitlement rather than demonstrating how Goose Bay fits into the military's operational requirements.

Positioning JTF2 at CFB Trenton, one of the country's main military airbases, allows the unit immediate access to aircraft for domestic and overseas missions. It is also an ideal location because another unit in the special operations command, the Canadian Joint Incident Response Unit, which deals with nuclear, biological and chemical incidents, is already located there. JTF2 works closely with that unit on counter-terrorism exercises.

And if by some chance the provincial government officials responsible for monitoring this stuff missed it, plans for development at Trenton already made the news in March 2008 when plans for some of the buildings were found in a trash can outside a downtown Ottawa office building.

Of course, even if the local officials are a bit overtaxed, it's not like we don't have Our Man in a Blue Line Cab who is supposed to be watching these files from an office not far from Parliament Hill.

Some things - like say keeping on top of important files - are not as easy as ABC.

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