06 October 2008

The way ahead

As a rule, Canadian political campaigns don't make use of the available technology to reach voters.

They don't.

The national party websites are light years ahead of what goes on at the riding level, but even nationally, they aren't anywhere close to the Obama campaign and its new iPhone application.

_45074035_obama-screen-bodyYes. 

Barack Obama'[s people have introduced an application designed specifically for the iPhone.  The app allows the user to build contact lists, keep track of campaign news, and send information out to their personal contacts.

The basic idea behind the app is simple. It's a way of letting individual voters help mobilize their friends.  I love Obama.  I go and get a few friends to vote Obama.  Those friends are more likely to vote Obama because I am pushing it rather than because some dorky student from state u at butthole is sitting on their doorstep. 

Social media used to send a message through social networks.  Holy crap.  That's exactly what this stuff is for! 

And the psychology of it is as simple as it is brilliant as well. 

In one app you get an answer to declining voter turn-out,  voter tune-out, the shortage of volunteers all campaigns are experiencing and all the other woes of modern campaigning.  Get the activists going and let them spread the word on your behalf.

The Obama app shows the way, but in order to grasp it, politicos will have to break out of their mental confinements.

And that, dear reader, is something for another post.

-srbp-

05 October 2008

Iceland economic troubles

Odds are you won't hear Newfoundland nationalists speaking too loudly about Iceland these days.

Not so very long ago it was a source of inspiration.

Iceland's prime minister and central bank officials held emergency talks on Sunday to deal with the country's growing economic problems.

That's just the latest effort.

But last week the Icelandic government nationalised Glitnir, one of its largest banks, and a large investment house collapsed. Now Kaupthing, Iceland's largest bank, is the focus of nervous investors, and the Icelandic krona plunged more than 20 per cent against the dollar last week as traders fretted about the implications of the bail-outs.

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Whistling past the economic graveyard

The business world in a free market runs so extensively on psychology it's amazing that business schools around the world spend so much time on balance sheets, marketing and business plans.

Psychology is pretty much the reason why western government's responded to the American financial crisis with assurances that "the fundamentals" of the economy are sound.

However, in some instances, the efforts to describe the Canadian economy as somehow able to avoid any consequences of the move toward a recession south of the border became somewhat bizarre.

Take, for example, comments by Premier Danny Williams in an interview with the National Post:

"The fortunate thing about Newfoundland and Labrador and Saskatchewan in today's fragile economy is that our provinces are very, very well-positioned. We have strong economies, a lot of it based on natural resources, but we're going to weather this storm and weather it very well."

Finance minister Tom Marshall told reporters on several occasions that he doesn't see a problem find cash to build the Lower Churchill project. In other news stories, Marshall said he was concerned that lower oil prices would lower government revenues.

The Premier told VOCM listeners on Sunday night that the provincial "economy is growing very well."  That isn't accurate.  All economic forecasts - including the provincial government's own forecasts  - show the province having incredibly modest growth.  Some project the growth this year and next year will be scarcely above 1% and some have forecast growth at one half of one percent.  That is as perilously close to a decline as it can get.

At the same time, European countries are taking action to bail out where necessary and take other actions to avoid repercussions from the American downturn.  Odd is that, given that European countries are not as dependent as Canada generally or Newfoundland and Labrador specifically on the healthy American economy.

Iceland, once touted by some nationalists as a model for Newfoundland and Labrador to emulate, is in serious economic difficulty:

But in the financial world Iceland is now a hot topic of discussion for a different reason: many people suggest that it could become the “first national casualty” of the ongoing credit crunch. Until last year, Iceland’s economic track record in this decade had been phenomenal—its annual growth rate averaged close to four per cent over the past decade, and its per-capita gross national income is now higher than that of the U.S. This year, though, the country’s currency, the króna, has fallen twenty-two per cent against the euro; the economy has stagnated; and a global rating agency has put the nation’s three major banks on a credit watch. Now analysts are wondering whether the new Nordic Tiger will end up, instead, as “the Bear Stearns of the North Atlantic.”

Take, as but one example, an article from the weekend Globe and Mail.  It included this comment one one manufacturer from Newfoundland and Labrador:

Mr. [Lorne] Janes, president of Newfoundland-based Continental Marble of Canada, is already getting the cold shoulder from his customers in Florida, Maryland and California. “The reply I'm getting now is, ‘Lorne, save the phone call, don't call any more until this sorts out,'” said Mr. Janes, whose 12-employee company manufactures equipment to produce moulded stone countertops.

Janes wouldn't be alone.  A Bond Papers post from last July highlighted the extent to which the provincial economy is dependent on exports - especially energy exports - the majority of which heads to the United States. In 2005, the last year for which information is posted online at the provincial government website, 52% of international exports from Newfoundland and Labrador headed to the United States.

As the United States economy slows, the effects on Newfoundland and Labrador will be felt directly and in some instances very strongly:

  1. As demand for energy products declines, exports to the United States will also likely decline.  That will reduce provincial government revenue.
  2. As the price of oil declines, provincial government revenue will decline accordingly.  If crude oil averages US$87 in 2008, the provincial budget will run into deficit to the tune of about $800 million.
  3. Declining commodity prices and lessened demand for minerals, forest products and fish would affect the three traditional major economic drivers in Newfoundland and Labrador.
  4. The American credit crunch - and the resulting tightening of capital available for major projects - will affect virtually all the major projects projected for Newfoundland and Labrador:
    • The NLRC refinery project is already in serious trouble and may well be dead for all practical purposes.
    •  Hebron is not yet sanctioned.  While many believe the project is underway, it is not.  Oil prices, increased costs and tight capital may delay project sanction.
    • The Lower Churchill needs $9.0 billion in capital investment, capital which is growing increasingly scarce. The project currently does not have a single power purchase agreement.  PPAs are crucial for securing long-term financing. A decline in revenues from oil and gas developments and mineral production would adversely affect the provincial government's ability to cover the costs of doubling the provincial debt in order to build the project.

The Newfoundland and Labrador economy is not immune from the effects of a serious downturn in the American economy.  As much as politicians are tempted to say something different from that for political reasons, it would be far better to provide people with an accurate picture of the provincial economy and the interrelationship between international events and local economic well being.

The shock of finding out the truth if serious consequences follow will be far greater than if politicians didn't try to whistle a happy tune as they walk towards what - for some economic projects - might well be a graveyard of ambition. That shock will have far greater consequences than what would occur from telling it like it is right now.

-srbp-

04 October 2008

Campaign zoo diaries

1. Palin:  One too many pucks to the head.  The Republicans were desperate enough when they nominated Sarah Palin for the veep spot on the Republican ticket.  [Hint:  Despite what it seems, HNGs are not really a big enough demographic to win an election on.]  Now Palin is showing how completely wasted the GOP is, accusing Obama of "palling around with terrorists".

Palin's a self-described hockey mom.  Maybe she's taken one too many pucks to the head.

2.  Dippers lose a dipstick.  Well, another dipstick, as in a candidate they should never have nominated in the first place.  Yeppers. How many is that now?

3.  Not really plagiarism this time.  Stephen Harper says that he cribbed a couple of bits of a Mike Harris speech, but says what he used were "fairly standard" bits of political rhetoric.

Translation:  "If we keep killing staff whenever I screw up there'll be no one left to follow my orders."

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Mission Impossible

Before someone gagged Ivan Morgan, he used to write the odd column - at the Herald and the now dead Independent - on local politics.  He offered sometimes pithy observations, sometimes no so worthwhile thoughts.

Then someone laid a hand on his shoulder and told him to stop.

So he started writing about jam jams.

Back in the days when Ivan actually felt free to offer his opinion, he wrote an open letter to Ross Reid. 

This was back in the days before October 2003 when all changed and Ivan it should be allowed was prepared to crown Danny the greatest ever long before the guy had a chance to warm the chairs on the 8th floor.  Ross was doing good work overseas and Ivan felt the need to appeal to Ross' civic sense and ask the guy to come back and help keep an eye on Danny.

So your job...will be to keep a lid on Danny and his merry band. Take the edge off - so to speak.

002

There's a bit earlier on than that quote where Ivan talks about Tory insiders muttering darkly about Danny's "management style."

Odd how these things slip your mind until they magically appear in your inbox.

Click on the picture, right, and the thing will pop up large enough for you to read.

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Wishin' and hopin' and spewin' and sprayin'

Undoubtedly, Scott Andrews campaign took great heart this past week for stories running on CBC and in the Telegram about Fabian Manning and his expense accounts in the House of Assembly.

The race looks tight, according to an NTV/Telelink poll and those two stories might well look like the kind of ammunition needed to push Andrews into the lead.

They might.

But then again, they might not.

Here's why.

Firstly, the race in Avalon appears tight according to the NTV/Telelink poll.  Given the relatively high undecided  - 40% of respondents - it might look like pulling Andrews in front is within grasp. 

However, the undecideds are likely made up of a huge number of Fabe fans who are right now either uncomfortable in saying who they will vote for or who genuinely are hung up about whether or not to vote.

Those people are necessarily winnable for the Andrews cause.

But they have to be won.

And that leads us to the second point:  Andrews hasn't done anything to woo the undecideds. 

Thus far, Andrews has run a flame-thrower of a campaign built almost entirely on attacks straight at Manning.  Andrews has sucked the ABC tit harder than a cabinet minister looking for a new job in the upcoming shuffle.  He's not getting any milk out though because the Family Feud nipple spews only bile.  It's all negative, all the time.

The Family Feud gives nothing to which a voter can attach.

Take a listen to the Morning Show's candidate forum last Thursday and you'll see the point. [Part 1 and Part 2] 

Andrews spent way too much time slicing into Manning personally in a high pitched and grating way.  Who the heck could stand to listen to that for more than a few seconds?

The answer is no one and in the case of Morning Show listeners no one other than the handful of partisan loyalists and the masochists who just take anything political they can get regardless of what it is.

The rest of us would rather have been chained naked at Cape Spear with seagulls plucking out our eyeballs all the while enduring Slim Whitman's greatest hits at top volume rather than sit through one more second of Thursday's racket.

Take a look at Andrews' campaign website.  Look as hard as you want  and you will be hard pressed to find one single reason why anyone should vote for Andrews and the Liberal Party. There are plenty.  Andrews just isn't intent, apparently, on letting on what they are.

Third, if you look at the Manning stories, you have a hard time finding something to get really annoyed at.  In a case where the benchmarks were set by Tom Rideout and Walter Noel, Fabian Manning's handful of travel claims is hardly worth talking about. On top of that he paid back the secret bonus cash.

You don't have to like what Fabian did, but he is by far nowhere near the worst of the bunch, even if you take aside those facing criminal charges. Hey, it's not like even one of Andrews' staunchest supporters hasn't been known to change his mind completely on House of Assembly spending once the local Family head has pronounced on the matter.

How the heck will a Manning supporter react?

Even if Andrews wants to get indignant about Manning's spending, the story is still framed as what not to do.  The Connie vote is suppressed enough;  you can't suppress it more without risking post-traumatic stress disorder up and down the shore.  What's missing is the stuff to pull voters in Andrews' direction.

So far he and his team haven't shown any signs of figuring that out.

Now, their hammering might work.

The odds are against it.  No amount of wishing and hoping based on spewing and spraying has worked very well yet anywhere else.

-srbp-

03 October 2008

At least he's got a plan

While the Conservatives race to cobble one together for release on Tuesday and Stephen Harper and finance leprechaun Jim Flaherty do their best Chip Diller impressions - all is well - at least one party actually has a plan to deal with the economy.

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Jack's coming back

Jack Layton, whose campaign signs are popping up all over St. John's South-Mount Pearl is coming back to campaign for Ryan Cleary, the guy running in Jack's place.

He'll be in St. John's this Sunday, October 5.

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Harper channeled Mike Harris, too

First Howard.

Now Harris.

The press release compares the speaking notes used by Harris on December 4, 2002, which are posted on the website of the Montreal Economic Institute:

"Thinking about things from a new and different perspective is never easy. It takes courage, conviction and the strength to know that in taking a new and innovative course, you are making change for the better. Genuine leaders are the ones who do the right thing."

Two months later, on February 19, 2003, Harper gave a similar address in the House of Commons in response to the Liberal budget:

"Thinking about things from a new and different perspective is not about reading the polls and having focus group tests. It is never easy because it takes courage, conviction and the strength to know that taking a new and innovative course is going to make change for the better. Genuine leaders are the ones who do the right thing."

Holy crap.  It doesn't look like Harper's had an original thought in his life.

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Now there's video of the Great Copiest.

Refinery's Euro-backers bailed in '07, law suit alleges

In statement of claim against Altius in the ongoing legal battles over the second refinery proposed for a site near Come by Chance, BAE Newplan Group claims that three European backers of the NLRC project withdrew in 2007.

BAE Newplan is seeking damages, interest and court costs totaling $20,594,224.65 in a dispute over engineering and environmental work done for the proposed refinery.

Later in the statement of claim, BAE-Newplan further accuses Altius of not disclosing key information, including that three European investors had dropped out of the project last year, and that $30 million raised in a share offering by Altius Minerals in November 2007 would be used to construct integral parts for the NLRC refinery.

An earlier suit brought against the refinery company - NLRC - led the refinery proponents to seek bankruptcy protection. Altius is one of the major shareholders in NLRC.

NLRC claimed that the project was suffering financial problems due to the subprime crisis in the United States. It is unclear whether the European investors bailed in 2007, something that hasn't previously  been reported by Altius or NLRC. The three investors are still listed on the NLRC website as of 03 October 2008.

Altius is a financing proponent on the provincial government's proposed Lower Churchill hydroelectric project.

-srbp-

02 October 2008

Now will someone start reporting it correctly?

The ABC campaign is a Family Feud.

The Provincial Conservatives are sticking it to their federal brothers and sisters.

That's it.

That's all of it.

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Stephane's response to Danny

A simple, well-crafted letter and the missing attachment.

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Steamroller!

If the latest NTV/Telelink poll on the race in St. John's East holds true,  New Democrat Jack Harris can start house-hunting in Ottawa and his two rivals can count on not getting their deposit back.

Of the 526 people in the riding polled by Telelink, 52.3 percent said they would be voting for Harris.  Liberal Walter Noel polled 8.7 percent and Conservative Craig Westcott polled 8.2 percent.

Craig shouldn't be embarrassed;  to come from nowhere, hold up the name of an underdog's underdog and tie a former provincial cabinet minister is no mean feat.

Now mind you, Craig had some help from Walter who seems to love setting fire to his own bollocks at every opportunity.

But still.

In the right campaign for the right party, Craig would be electable.  he's smart, knows his stuff and can make the case.

Michael Connors finished the NTV broadcast by wondering if Harris and his crew of New Democrats and Provincial Conservatives would now spend the last two weeks in St. John's South-Mount Pearl campaigning against Liberal Siobhan Coady.

She'd better hope not.

Ordinarily, she's got enough of a lead to win against her nearest rival, the NDP's Ryan Cleary.

If Harris piled on for the last two weeks, there might actually wind up being two orange seats in Newfoundland and Labrador.  None of the Connies would sally to the south since they've already taken a shine to Coady.

But Harris and the Dippers?

They wouldn't have the same hesitation.

Not for a second.

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If you aren't depressed, you should be

Richard Raleigh holds nothing back in his assessment of the candidates running in the two St. John's ridings.

-srbp-

01 October 2008

Lower Churchill delayed a mere six months?

Energy corporation boss Ed Martin told CBC News that the current market turmoil in the United States could delay the Lower Churchill project by up to six months.

The province will need to borrow billions of dollars to finance the project, and Ed Martin, CEO of Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro, said Wednesday the project could be set back by a few months as he waits for the financial market to sort itself out.

It was hoped the megaproject could get the green light as early as 2009, but with the U.S. economy in turmoil Martin said raising the cash on the open market won't be easy.

"Well, we can be flexible and we will be. We are going to be very strategic in terms of when we go in. If that means that we're going to delay going in for six months, we will," he said.

Just six months?  That seems incredibly optimistic given the apparent magnitude of the economic downturn in the United States. 

Earlier on Wednesday, the Liberal opposition in the provincial legislature raised questions about the impact economic uncertainty might have on the project.

The project is currently in the midst of an environmental review and, to date, no firm power purchase agreements have been made public.

A downturn in the American economy would reduce demand for electrical power, a potential export customer for the project. Likewise a global downturn in the economy would lessen the need for a new aluminum smelter which has been suggested as a potential local development in Labrador.   A global recession in the early 1990s helped to scuttle plans to develop the Lower Churchill at that time.

Tightening capital markets were cited as one reason proponents of a oil refinery near Come by Chance, Newfoundland to seek bankruptcy protection.  Bond Papers took a different view.

-srbp-

Steve and Stock in 2003

From the Wall Street Journal, March 2003, Stephen Harper and Stockwell Day tell Americans their position on Iraq (presumably not stolen from someone else):

Canadians Stand With You

By STEPHEN HARPER and STOCKWELL DAY

Today, the world is at war. A coalition of countries under the leadership of the U.K. and the U.S. is leading a military intervention to disarm Saddam Hussein. Yet Prime Minister Jean Chretien has left Canada outside this multilateral coalition of nations.

This is a serious mistake. For the first time in history, the Canadian government has not stood beside its key British and American allies in their time of need. The Canadian Alliance -- the official opposition in parliament -- supports the American and British position because we share their concerns, their worries about the future if Iraq is left unattended to, and their fundamental vision of civilization and human values. Disarming Iraq is necessary for the long-term security of the world, and for the collective interests of our key historic allies and therefore manifestly in the national interest of Canada. Make no mistake, as our allies work to end the reign of Saddam and the brutality and aggression that are the foundations of his regime, Canada's largest opposition party, the Canadian Alliance will not be neutral. In our hearts and minds, we will be with our allies and friends. And Canadians will be overwhelmingly with us.

But we will not be with the Canadian government.

Modern Canada was forged in large part by war -- not because it was easy but because it was right. In the great wars of the last century -- against authoritarianism, fascism, and communism -- Canada did not merely stand with the Americans, more often than not we led the way. We did so for freedom, for democracy, for civilization itself. These values continue to be embodied in our allies and their leaders, and scorned by the forces of evil, including Saddam Hussein and the perpetrators of the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. That is why we will stand -- and I believe most Canadians will stand with us -- for these higher values which shaped our past, and which we will need in an uncertain future.

Messrs. Harper and Day are the leader and shadow foreign minister, respectively, of the Canadian Alliance.

This comes from a supposedly conservative website, so presumably they just copied as is.  Short, sweet and too the point.  Harper may have cribbed the text of his speech that same month in the House of Commons, but there can be no mistake about the position that Harper and his party (now doing business as the Conservative Party of Canada) took on the need to invade Iraq.

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It's Coady in front

The NTV/Telelink poll on St. John's South- Mount Pearl didn't turn up many major surprises.

Liberal Siobhan Coady, who is trying the seat for the third time, is in front with 29.1% of "likely" voters.  New Democrat Ryan Cleary is in second place with 19.5% and Conservative Merv Wiseman is at 11.6%.  Green Party candidate Ted Warren and NL First Party candidate Greg Byrne fall into the "other" category in the poll, and split up 1.3% between them.

Undecided is at 38.5%.  Margin of error in the poll of 550 "likely" voters was plus or minus 4.3%.

Coady polled 35% and 33% of the cast votes in both her previous outings.  That means she's pretty much held on to her vote.

The New Democrats likewise seem to be hanging on to their vote with Ryan Cleary.  Peg Norman, the candidate last time, garnered a share of the vote in the low 20s.

Biggest change came for the Conservatives.  Loyola Hearn polled 40% and 45% of the cast votes in 2004 and 2006.

Fully 70% of respondents said the ABC campaign had no influence on their choice of Liberal or Conservative.

Undecided is very large, but in both the previous campaigns voter turnout was less than 60%.

Finally, voters were asked what issue they considered most important. As in Avalon, social programs rated first at 51.1%; the economy was second at 18.4%.

Equalization was the third issue, at 10.4%.  That's a pretty strong indication that the ABC campaign - which has Equalization at its core - isn't moving voters toward the Liberals and New Democrats.  Rather it has merely served to suppress the Conservative vote.

Unlike in Avalon, which had an equally large undecided population, the clear differentiation among the candidates in St. John's South-Mount Pearl and the absence of an incumbent suggests that the election is Coady's to lose.

She's been running a campaign that appears aimed to appeal to disgruntled Conservatives, although, as in past elections, the economic issues which have tended to be at the forefront of her campaign literature aren't the ones at top of mind for most voters.  A shift in her messaging to emphasize issues that are likeliest to move voters to the polls might help to make her unbeatable.  [Hint:  As in the past two federal elections, the Hibernia 8.5%, the Lower Churchill and Equalization are not the biggest thing on voters' minds.]

Cleary's campaign hasn't dropped literature throughout the riding and the absence of a website and advertising specifically for the riding has made it harder for the New Democrats to push their message to voters in the riding.  They've been relying, apparently on the national effort. That would make it very difficult for Cleary and the New Democrats to develop any momentum by appealing to the undecideds.

There's not much Wiseman could do except pray for some sort of October surprise.

Otherwise, St. John's South-Mount Pearl is going pretty much as the popular wisdom would have it.

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Double barreled update - Not one but two e-mails corrected the point about Ryan Cleary not having a website.

He does, and you can find it at ryanclearyndp.ca.  Some will note that Ryan is blogging and find that hysterically funny given his relentless attacks on bloggers, including the claim at one point that he never read blogs.

There are some other points to note.  Cleary has signage which is a campaign standard.  The ones seen by your humble e-scribbler do not have the website addy.  Simple clue:  by putting the addy on the signs, you drive traffic to the website where more detailed information can be found.

Apparently there have been no literature drops in the Cowan Heights/Bowring Park area of the riding. Despite having searched by every means possible, your humble e-scribbler couldn't find the Cleary site.  It seems to have gone live around September 23, judging by the date of the first blog entry. 

Cleary has been knocking doors, however it is hard to hit the entire riding in five to six weeks that way.

Thanks for the corrected information, Dale and Clare Marie. Now that it's confirmed Ryan has a website, we can do the Campaign 2.0 assessment of this election.

If there are any other gaps, keep the corrected information coming.

 

A tight race in Avalon? Dream on, baby

NTV and Telelink released a poll on Tuesday on the race in the federal riding of Avalon.

NTV touted it as showing a tight race, with the Conservative incumbent and Liberal challenger separated by only the margin of error for the poll.

Take a look at the undecided in the poll and you can forget about tight races.

39.9%

Yes, 40 percent of the people surveyed said they were undecided. That's 15 percentage points higher than Fabian Manning got and he's in the lead;  his nearest challenger - Liberal Scott Andrews - racked up something around 21%.

Then look at the satisfaction number for the incumbent, Fabian Manning.  Fifty-one percent said they were satisfied with his performance as member of parliament.

Then recall that Fabian Manning has been on the receiving end of a huge amount of attention as the only incumbent Conservative running in this election. The entire rhetorical weight of the Family Feud sat on his shoulders at one time and even though the Premier has backed off somewhat, there's evidently no love loss between the two.

And everyone knows that.

With all the anything but Conservative messaging out there, anyone who has made a clear choice shouldn't feel the least problem in telling the world that they intend to vote Liberal, New Democrat or even that they won't vote.

The large undecided vote in Avalon is most likely comprised of a large group of Manning voters who are simply uncomfortable with saying publicly what they could reasonably perceive as being an unpopular choice.  In some instances, they might even think that expressing their choice that might invite even more pressure against their guy than he's already felt.

Here's another clue:  when asked about the impact of the ABC campaign on their choice, people who selected a non-Conservative choice (i.e. the Liberals and New Democrats) overwhelmingly indicated (66%) that ABC had no impact on their choice.

That leads your humble e-scribbler to conclude that those Grit and Dipper votes were pretty much shored up any way.

Now it is entirely possible that the 40% undecided contains a huge number of people who just won't vote. That still likely works more in Manning's favour than against him.

As a last point, note that Telelink doesn't probe undecideds to determine any leanings or why they are undecided.  That means any detailed analysis  - including this post - is difficult and any comments are conjecture.

Still, you'd have to believe an awful lot of things to believe that the race in Avalon is actually tight.

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A-B-C = D-E-A-D

Some local media outlets have taken to tacking obligatory mentions of the ABC thingy onto stories related to the election campaign even when there is absolutely no logical reason to do so.

Despite that effort to keep the thing alive, Danny Williams' office confirmed on Tuesday that the whole thing is deader than a doornail.

They offered up the "he's too busy" excuse.

Uh huh.

Like yesterday when his jag was in his parking space but he sent Kathy Dunderdale down to meeting with people worried the government is about to issue even more fish processing licenses in a market already grossly oversupplied with fish plants.

Yes, Danny Williams turned down yet another request to  campaign.  That is to do more than deliver a bad speech badly to an audience that has heard it a dozen times already.

At some point, the local newsrooms will figure out the real story here and start covering it.

They can find a hint as to the reasons the ABC thingy is a total fiction in at least one Bond Papers post.

-srbp-

30 September 2008

Dion brings in local heavyweight for debate prep

Some people will understand the importance of a seemingly small detail in this ctv.ca story:

According to Liberal insiders, Tim Murphy, Martin's one-time chief of staff, has been playing the role of Harper in the dry runs. Richard Mahoney and Mark Watton, also erstwhile Martin confidants, have played the roles of moderator and NDP Leader Jack Layton respectively.

 

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The return of Marg, Princess Warrior

Harper is doomed!

 

CBC has more, including raw video.

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Separated at birth: the international Connie speechifying version

Stephen Harper's 2003 speech on Iraq was lifted from a speech by Australian Prime Minister John Howard delivered two days before Harper's oration.

In classic Connie fashion, the gaffe has been blamed on a staffer.  In classic Harper fashion -  and in the interests of direct personal accountability - Harper stuck his spokesperson out front to toss a few  lines at the media.

The guy who wrote the speech is a fellow at the Fraser Institute and used to write speeches for Bill Vander Zalm and Kim Campbell.  Vander Zalm was premier of British Columbia.  Campbell was the short-lived prime minister who succeeded Brian Mulroney until the spectacular political disaster in the 1993 general election when her party was reduced to two seats.

What's update, Doc?

Conservative Doc O'Keefe, the St. John's mayor, wasn't trying to avoid politicizing a portion of the meeting at city hall on Monday night as your humble e-scribbler originally thought.

Turns out the loyal Connie and some of his fellow councilors  - also long-time Connies of the federal and provincial variety - were trying to make a political attack on the Liberal Party's Green Shift.

They were doing so by pretending to be concerned about the cost of the Liberals' environmental policy to taxpayers on things like public transit.

Yes, the boys who helped bring you the Coombs-Wells Memorial Money Pit, a.k.a St. John's Sports and Entertainment and the Mile One Stadium,  have developed a sudden, overwhelming concern for the taxpayer's bank balance.

Let's just take a second while you catch your breath and stop laughing.

Someone may have to get Nan a wee medicinal dram.  The shock of finding out Keith Coombs, Art Puddister and Doc O'Keefe don't want to piss her pension cheque down the nearest toilet is likely to give her the vapours.

According to O'Keefe, city staff figure the Green Shift will cost the city an extra $800,000 in 2012.

To put that in perspective, the annual city budget is currently over $175 million.  Over the past two years O'Keefe and his fellows at city hall boosted the subsidy to the Mile One money pit by more than double the extra 800K.

In making his nakedly partisan attack on the Green Shift, O'Keefe ignored the other aspects of the Liberal plan including federal cash for improvements to public infrastructure, public transit and energy efficiency for homes and buildings.

To really put this in perspective, O'Keefe is one of the crew that agitated for the government gasoline price fixing scheme currently screwing citizens of the province.

His sudden concern for taxpayers is a bit of a stretch.

Councilor Tom Hann - bless his heart - pointed that out to O'Keefe.  The former provincial Liberal candidate went a little gaga by dragging in the Connie Family feud but on the Green Shift part, Hann was spot on.

"I don't think we need to get into the political posturizing [sic]. I'm trying to keep this non-political," O'Keefe said.

Pull the other one, it's got bells on, Doc.

The surest way to cut down greenhouse gases in this city would be to find a way to silence the likes of Coombs, O'Keefe, Puddister and some of the others at city hall. 

Sadly, that isn't likely to happen any time soon, let alone soon enough.

-srbp-

 

 

Surreality Check, SJSMP version

Courtesy of CBC's St. John's Morning Show:

1.  Revanchism Redux.  NL First candidate Greg Byrne - who has been known to back a certain revanchist provincial first minister sans doubt - expresses amazement to a CBC reporter that people follow a certain other first minister unquestioningly.

Bryne apparently has never looked in a mirror.

Byrne is pushing many completely foolish ideas about Equalization and Confederation as part of his campaign.

2.  Meanwhile at Tammany on Gower.... Tom Hann, a St. John's city councilor who was once a federal Liberal riding president in St. John's South-Mount Pearl used a moment at St. John's city council to campaign for the Family Feud.

That's the Conservative family feud, for those who missed it.

Conservative mayor Doc O'Keefe attempted to cut Hann off with an admonition that council was trying to avoid the current federal campaign.  Something about trying not to bring politics into things, something clearly not motivating Conservative O'Keefe whatsoever in his comments.

Hann denied he was campaigning.

Then Hann stated his support for the campaign.

-srbp-

A new meaning to the term "bitch slap"

Wente on Mallick.

Nicely put on both the CBC and Mallick.

-srbp-

29 September 2008

Two degrees of separation, Mulroney space cadet version

One degree.

Two degrees.

It's a small world.

-srbp-

Down at The Mouth

CBC brass pulled Heather Mallick's September 5 opinion piece from The Mother Corp's website in the wake of a hail of criticism from many callers and e-mailer as well as coverage by such bastions of insightful, reasoned and factual commentary as FoxNews and Rush Limbaugh.

In his statement, CBC publisher John Cruikshank called the piece "intensely partisan."

Intense, maybe.

Partisan? 

Debatable.

Sucked?

Much better description that covers everything from its gratuitous smears to its overall poor structure.  Acceptable in some quarters of the blog world.  Not really Cebb fare.

You can still read it, though, at Mallick's website.  Parts of the piece are interesting counterpoint to Mallick's tonguelashing of some of her fellow female columnists' treatment of Julie Couillard's chestal assets.

The Palin column should never have made it to the corporation's Internet space in the first place.  That's a comment on its content and style; not anything on it's qualities, such as the claim by CBC that it is classic political invective - it wouldn't even make the short list on a CBC Great Political Invective series in which second and third rate invective is voted on by ordinary Canadians with nothing better to do with their time than (a) watch the show and (b) make phone calls to support their chosen turd.

Your humble e-scribbler would commend Adam Radwanski's post on it for those interested in the little controversy.

Incidentally, Mallick also writes for the Guardian.  Her September 5 piece for that organ contains a few comments that deserve fact-checking - but on the whole it a more reasoned and insightful critique of Palin.

I never claimed a higher moral standing for coming from a great big empty on the map. Small towns are places that smart people escape from, for privacy, for variety, for intellect, for survival. Palin should have stayed home.

Canada has lots of hockey moms. They're called Fran and Nancy. They have cruel haircuts and their voices shake the rafters of the rink as their rink-rats play. How can I translate the hearty, jollying-along Palin for British audiences? She's a working class Joan Hunter Dunn. It's those volleyball shoulders and field-hockey thighs, the energy, the bullying, and the utter self-confidence in every lie she tells.

Salt-of-the-earthers don't lie! But Palins do. I watched Palin last night, my mouth open, my eyeballs drying out, my hand making shaky notes. I read them aghast.

Did she really joke, "You know the difference between a hockey mom and a pitbull? Lipstick."?

Yes, she did, Heather, and in the piggy lipstick kerfuffle south of the border, Americans seemed to miss that rather nasty slur at a female sub-group of which Palin obviously isn't a member. Being a hockey mom isn't a common enough thing among Americans for them to have noticed the Palin slur.  In Canada, she'd have been dragged behind the Zamboni for a few laps, then tied to the uprights so people could take turns pitching empty Timmies cups and stale Timbits at her from centre ice.

None of that matters.

What matters right now is that the mood at the arrogantly-styled Canadian Broadcasting Centre must be dark.

Bill O'Reilly took offense and the Ceeb caved.

-srbp-

Why the rush?

There are signs the Matshishkapeu Accord might run into some trouble in the Innu communities in Labrador.

Not surprising, at all, is that.

Expect some heavy concern among non-aboriginal people in Labrador as well, especially when it gets closer to defining Labrador Innu Land.  Any non-Innu people currently holding title to land in the area will have to be properly compensated or have their title recognized.

The land claim is a long way from settled.  The Lower Churchill deal is a long way from sanctioned if it is sanctioned at all.  These things are complex and they take time to work through all the details.

So one does have to wonder what all the rush was about last week.  By the Premier's own account the deal was cut in a week of intense negotiations that finished in an all-nighter Thursday.  The thing was settled before seven in the morning Friday and the newser was held before anyone had time to do much more than grab a quick show and head to the media gathering.

On something this important, it seems like a rather high pressure tactic to use, one where people are bound to make mistakes in the heat of the moment and under the undue duress of the style.

It's not like really bad deals haven't come out of just such an approach before.

Anyone else remember the mess that came out of just such a high-pressure situation in early June 1990?

Anyone else wonder what Danny Williams would have said if the oil companies tried the same thing on him?

This thing is far from settled.

-srbp-

Pull the other one, Bradley ...

Bradley George of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business says his members want to see taxes lowered to help them deal with labour shortages.

Okay, well, his members always want to see their taxes lowered

The reason isn't important;  lower taxes is a CFIB stock position. Pick an idea.  The CFIB position starts with lowering business taxes.

Not enough money coming coming in from business taxes? Lower business taxes says CFIB.  That kinda thing.

But look, it's hard to take that sort of thing seriously when half of George's members think Hebron is going to happen tomorrow.

Sheesh, next thing, they'll be asking for lower taxes to help them cope with Sasquatch.

-srbp-

28 September 2008

Fully-costed Dipper plan?

Jack Layton is releasing what is supposed to be a fully-costed New Democratic Party election platform.

Jack Layton already committed to handing over  - free of charge ? - the federal government's 8.5% share of the Hibernia offshore megaproject (1.3 billion barrels of oil estimated) to Danny Williams.

Where is the cost of that, Jack?

-srbp-

Nothing could be further from the truth

Hands up anyone who recalls a little spat between the parliamentary press gallery and the Prime Minister's Office over who gets to decide who asks questions during a prime ministerial newser?

Anyone?

Didn't think so.

One of the things Stephen Harper can add to his list of accomplishments is taking the cajones from reporters in the Ottawa press gallery.

The crowd that prided themselves on supposedly liking their meat raw and freshly stripped from the hide of an unsuspecting politician are now dutifully chowing down on whatever scraps their PMO handlers toss them.

Like the whole Daddy Steve series of photo opportunities.

Or the photo gracing the front online page of the Globe this nearly last weekend of the campaign.

364harper It shows the PM in front of a couple of signs held aloft by what appear to be adolescent women.

The signs read "I have a crush on Harper".

Does this not strike anyone as bizarre, in the extreme?

Let's leave aside for a moment the fact the young women appear to be holding the signs carefully so that the photographer they are evidently aware of cannot catch their faces.

When was the last time you can recall a political leader stirring the loins of young women or men in this country spontaneously?

Anyone?

Exactly.  And in this instance, it is clearly nothing more than an organized event, a complete contrivance.

The Conservative Party campaign is so hermetically sealed that a young woman from a television show with her credentials intact is hustled from the room and slapped in handcuffs.  There are many media events where the Prime Minister simply does not take questions.This is not an environment for spontaneity or sarcastic protests. 

Nope.

These sign holders - with their perfect cut out letters and oddly matching design layout - were very likely officially approved participants in the photo op.

What we are looking at here is a fabrication.

They are like the stories of Harper at his high school reunion or with a family, especially babies.

They are to news coverage what those e-mails abut Viagra and some Nigerian bank official with bags of American cash are to your e-mail inbox:

Spam.

However, the taming the gallery goes considerably further than just the odd stunt photo passing as something real. People die from tainted meat.  The agriculture minister discusses the issue on a conference call with government officials and places the handling of the crisis in both a partisan (wrong enough) and a personally partisan context (even wronger).

Reporters pen apologias that make the PMO press wranglers drool in envy, they could never have written stuff that aped sincerity so well.  News rooms, we are told, are places of dark humour.  Just like cabinet ministers' offices. Reporters and editors all deal with such weighty, difficult issues on a daily basis they resort to gallows humour to help them get through.  We must forgive Gerry Ritz for he is just human like the rest of us. 

Apparently, unlike Wayne Easter or the 17 dead and their families who are not part of the circle of people hefting the weight of the world on their shoulders..

And that young woman, slapped in cuffs?  She was from the entertainment side of things and after all, it was - as one report called it - a lighter moment on the tour.  No sarcasm in sight on that one, either.

The Conservatives run television ads which contain false information.  Not a peep of comment, certainly not the torrent with which it should be met when any political party resorts to blatant falsehood as a core part of its campaign.

Then there's the puffin poop.  The smudge of guano vanishes and news reporters trumpet the very wise apology offered by the campaign and wag fingers at the naughty staffers who supposedly slipped off the leash.

In such a tightly control campaign?  Gimme a break.

And the vicious personal attack site on which the guano was now gone?  Absolutely intact and free to continue presenting its officially sanction tripe, ignored by virtually all of the news media.  Its message  - a savage attack on a national party leader's character - survived the contrived apology built around fake bird crap.

The lightweight, the superficial reporting of this election campaign strikes all media forms, public and private. The early gaffes by the Conservative party and its multi-million dollar war room went largely unreported except in a couple of small corners, while the problems in the Liberal campaign, both real and many more imaginary, were front page news.  They continue to be. Whether its the news spaces or the blog spaces, there's an unmistakable tone to the coverage and that tone is light.

It seems to go a bit beyond the normal advantage that goes with incumbency.  There seems to be a certain active collaboration, an apparent willful blindness to the obvious on the part of many news outlets.

That likely sounds awfully familiar to voters in Newfoundland and Labrador.

They saw just Friday past the announcement of yet another investigation into computer security in the provincial government's system; reported straight up with no context,  like say the last time a security breach occurred and the release was turned into its own form of luncheon meat, prepackaged for easier eating by overworked reporters.

Or the "historic" "deal" with the Labrador Innu on Churchill Falls and the Lower Churchill:

CBC:  Instead of taking a direct ownership position, though, the Innu Nation has elected to take an equivalent royalty, which will amount to five per cent of net project revenue.

Globe:  The Innu will get royalties from the new project and, as part of the same agreement announced Friday, will receive millions in compensation for losses suffered in the 1960s when the Upper Churchill project flooded their lands. They also have secured varying rights to 27,000 square miles of land, with legal title to about one-fifth of that.

The same sort of thing is in included in other national and local coverage.

A 20 minute read of the actual agreement shows something else. A trip to the memory hole turns up something else on top of that.

Even old stuff, stuff that long ago was shown to be distorted, misleading and in some aspects downright false reappears in something purporting to be a "reality" check.

The quiet demise of the Family Feud goes unnoticed, even though early reports talked it up as the hottest thing this side of Sarah Palin.

If the polls hold and the Conservatives are re-elected with a strengthened minority or even a majority, odds are that more of the surreal coverage Canadians have seen during the campaign will be commonplace. That's certainly been the case in this neck of the woods under a Provincial Conservative government.

There will undoubtedly be times when it comes to news coverage that Canadians will find themselves falling back on a line that - odds are  - the federal Conservative leader will be using quite a bit, if the pattern holds: 

Nothing could be further from the truth.

-srbp-

27 September 2008

Read the fine print

More than half the owners of small- and medium-sized businesses in Newfoundland and Labrador surveyed by the independent business federation believe the province will have stronger economic performance in the next 12 months.

Okay.

The federation's provincial director, Bradley George, says confidence is on the rise mainly because of the Hebron announcement last month that got the ball rolling on another major offshore oil development.

Stop and read that again.

Especially the last bit:

"Hebron announcement...that got the ball rolling on another major offshore oil development."

Really?

It did?

Boy, are they going to get a rude shock:

The Hebron project has not been sanctioned  and may not be sanctioned, according to the fiscal agreement released on Thursday by the provincial government and only the oil companies can make a decision when - if at all - to develop the project.

That's a huge change in policy for a provincial government that, in the wake of the first Hebron negotiating failure only two years ago, was threatening to legislate development of projects offshore.  The premier and others complained that development could be held up indefinitely by oil companies.

These people read need to read the fine print on these things.

Or at least Bond Papers.

-srbp-

When hum meets chum

First there was "Adios Indy."

Here's how Ryan Cleary described it:

Brian Dobbin, the publisher and financial backer, says his interest is not in Newfoundland anymore. Which is a shame to hear from the Newfoundlander who put so much of the hum in the Humber Valley. He’s disillusioned with this place, to put it mildly, but I’ll leave it to Dobbin to tell his own story. I don’t know the details.

Poor Brian is disillusioned.  Terrible news. Dobbin apparently lost money on the Indy venture over its entire lifespan which, Cleary suggests, was undertaken solely out of Dobbin's interest in journalism and getting to the bottom of stories.

Like the Terra Nova one Cleary mentions. 

What Cleary failed to mention was that the single source they used to support the piece recanted as soon as the thing hit the shelves. The Hibernia one Dobbin was supposedly interested in is also a pack of nonsense.  Cleary never printed anything on it because it doesn't exist.  They couldn't find anything,

Regular Bond Papers readers will recognise Cleary's version of things as a spin job.  You know spin:  it's the word public relations people use instead of the less polite term "bullshit".

Ryan - intrepid fact and truth uncoverer that he claims to be - wasn't happy with just mere "spin" so he torqued things  a bit more for a two-parter in The Current:

From my perspective, I say that Dobbin put a high price on the paper to ensure that any new owner was serious about the newspaper business.

Ryan's writing gives new meaning to "60 cycle hum".

Well, turns out that Cleary missed a hum alright, a hum-dinger of a story.

A handful of months after Disillusioned Dobbin killed the Indy, we discover that Humber Valley is in the hole to the tune of $50 million.

What's worse:

Apparently there was an operational debt of one million dollars per month to run the resort and one and a half million dollars per month to offer the direct flights from Gatwick to Deer Lake.

The monthly losses at the resort were being financed by the parent company and this was threatening the financial well being of the entire company.

Hmmm.

Sounds just like the Indy, which Cleary says cost Dobbin $2.0 million in losses even though - as they always claimed - it was on the verge of breaking even.

Another story, entirely, right there and Ryan missed it.  

Amazing.

Did he ever bother to ask what his free flight cost the company?

If only he'd thought to ask, maybe he'd have had a much bigger story than the one he wrote at the time.

In the meantime, the Humber Valley resort was a great concept.  let's hope it can be salvaged.

-srbp-

Maybe next time we can make s'mores

Walter Noel is becoming something of a legend as a political pyromaniac.

He's seems intent on constantly setting fire to himself or, to be accurate, the smoldering remains of his political reputation.

His staunch defense of spending his constituency cash on gifts of perfume, crystal and clothing serves as gasoline which Noel insists on pouring over himself throughout this campaign.

He'll happily splash anyone else within reach, as well, as he did this week with both his opponent Jack Harris and his fellow Liberal candidate Judy Foote. Those two have been able to douse any fires with simple, straightforward explanations. 

The problem for Noel - and the flamethrower he brings to his self-roasting  - is his repeated excuse that his spending was within the rules and approved by the "highest officials of the House of Assembly."

Sure, Walter. 

We already know the "rules" were all but non-existent and one of those "highest" officials is currently facing criminal charges.

Noel has even gone so far as to claim his bone-headed actions in defended the misspending are brave or some such bit of silliness.

Well, the flames were barely fading from his latest round of bravery when the Telegram dutifully reminded everyone in the Saturday edition that Noel managed to blow an entire year's worth of public money in a single six month spree between April and October 2003. The genesis of this latest story was a news release Noel issued defending himself on the whole issue which itself resulted from some other media story generated by yet another brave defence by Noel

Amazing.

Noel's top expense that year was advertising: $3,261. He spent nearly $2,950 on over 50 restaurant and food claims - an average of about two per week. Brochures cost Noel just over $2,000; donations, nearly $1,800 more. Noel was also reimbursed for $1,367 in alcohol-only purchases at liquor stores.

Bear in mind that at the time Noel was a provincial cabinet minister with access to another sizeable expense account. We can only wait for the juicy revelations that come from the Telegram's investigation of that spending as well.

In itself, the spending is something voters might possibly have been able to get over in time.  Noel's repeated use of what amounts to easily refutable excuses - the "highest officials" crap - calls into question his judgment.

And his vehemence doesn't just make one a little uncomfortable. 

Coupled with his ludicrous plan to study building a tunnel to Bell Island, his unsubstantiated claims about his part in the 2004/05 offshore transfer deal, his pseudo-separatist dalliances, and his ranting about the "socialist" hordes in the New Democratic Party and their overspending way, his repeated defence of his own overspending suggests Noel is completely out of touch with anything vaguely resembling reality, political or otherwise.

Three things follow from all this:

First, the Liberal Party in Newfoundland and Labrador needs to tighten up its candidate vetting process and candidate selection process.  Big time.

Second, Noel's political future is deader than dead to the point that his vote count in this federal election might wind up being barely above his 1974 first effort.  Incidentally, that's when he ran on behalf of the "socialist" hordes.

Third,  Noel's only political value to this race - and it is sad to see it happen - is to give the only bit of light entertainment to a race otherwise made boring now that Danny Williams has abandoned his Family Feud campaign entirely.

If Noel wants to keep setting his own political ass on fire, there's not much any of us can do except sit back and shake our heads.

Oh, yes.

And maybe next time we can make s'mores.

That's about the only way Noel's candidacy can be said to have contributed anything to the current election.

-srbp-

26 September 2008

The Matshishkapeu Accord?

Some curious details lay in the clauses of an agreement announced today between the provincial government energy corporation and representatives of the Innu people of Labrador. Any lawyers out there who want to offer a different view or take issue with the following are welcome to do so.

Churchill Falls

CFLCo Privatization:  In the Upper Churchill section, for example, there is reference to a potential sale of the Newfoundland and Labrador interest in Churchill Falls Labrador Corporation to as yet unknown private investors. The "parent company" is the province's energy corporation.

For all the nationalist posturing by the current administration, it's curious to see a contingency established for the sale of such an important asset.  Language referring to the privatization of public companies exists in the energy corporation legislation.

Just the existing project:  The compensation payments to the Innu apply only to the existing physical plant of CFLCo.  Any expansions in the future aren't subject to the agreement.

Don't count your Chickens:  Clause 2 (a) establishes an annual payment of $2.0 million paid by the provincial government to the Innu Nation but it only begins on ratification and execution of the impact and benefits agreement...for the Lower Churchill project. No Lower Churchill;  no cash

Don't count your Chickens 2: Clause 2 (b) provides for an additional 3% of dividends received by the provincial government "directly or through a corporation owned by the Province." Someone might want to double check.  The Province - i.e. the provincial government - doesn't get CFLCo dividends directly.

As for a corporation "owned by the Province", that would refer to Nl Hydro, the company that holds the provincial government's 65% interest in the company that runs Churchill Falls.   It used to be held by NL Hydro and that company didn't declare any dividends in 2007.  Three percent of zero is...well... zero. Let's not even get into a discussion of the express statement that the percentage would only be paid on dividends on common shares.

Count those Upper chickens for the last time:  The payments under Clause 2 (a) and (b) are effective only if the Innu agree to give up any and all claims past, present and future related to aboriginal rights on the Churchill Falls project.

Lower Churchill

Don't count the Lower chickens either: Any payments are expressly tied to the sanction of the Lower Churchill project.

Don't count your chickens 3: The energy corporation will pay a minimum of $5.0 million annually to the Innu Nation from the period between first project sanction and first commercial power.  The payments run for a maximum of 10 years and can stop if the project stops for some reason.

After first commercial power, the energy corporation will pay the greater of the minimum payment and five percent (5%) of annual Net After Debt Cash Flow.

Sounds wonderful, except for two things.  At the front end of this project - if it even starts in the first place - that net after debt cash flow might be a really tiny number. It could be a negative number.  Read the definition of net after debt cash flow contained in the agreement and you can see the only thing not included in the calculation is the proverbial kitchen sink purchase and operating costs on the outhouses at the site, amortized over the life of the project and including an allowance for annual kitchen sink replacement, repair, refit, redesign and eventual decommissioning.

That would be very bad for the Innu because of the second thing.  Clause 3(c)(ii) states that 10 years after project sanction, that minimum payment of $5.0 million is equal to zero.  Nada. Zip.

And remember, the clock starts ticking from project sanction, not from construction.  If it takes the project 10 years to get on stream, the Innu could wind up receiving nary a penny once the power starts flowing. 

The ghost in the turbines:  Talk about your Churchill Falls.  Oy vey!

Even with that deal the provincial government gets something.  In this case, the Innu will have to settle all claims for the promise of getting $50 million ($5 million a year for $10 years).  And at the point power starts flowing? Potentially receiving absolutely nothing at all or a trifling amount for an unknown point beyond that.

Of course, if the corporation is sold off in the meantime, then the whole thing stops anyway. The agreement is oddly silent on that eventuality but odds are the clever legal bunnies working for the energy corporation know that not much would come of an Innu legal challenge. 

In order to get the first cash, they have to sign away all future claims and indemnify the energy corporation to boot.

-srbp-

And now the East Blocheads...

With the Bloc tanking in Quebec, it seems only fitting that the completely bankrupt idea should now spread east to a band of three people running under the Newfoundland and Labrador First Party.

Greg Byrne, the guy quoted in the story, lives in British Columbia.  He's running in St. John's South-Mount Pearl.

The party is led by a former Provincial Conservative cabinet minister.

Note that last line of Byrne's interview with Radio Canada (the first link above).  Nl First wants to change "the system".

Et si ça ne fonctionne pas, Greg Byrne envisage la création d'un parti pancanadien qui inclurait toutes les provinces à l'exception du Québec et de l'Ontario.

And if that doesn't works, sez Byrne, they'll just form a party that includes people from all across Canada, except Ontario and Quebec.

After that they'd probably let in people from the other two provinces and succeed in creating...

a political party of the type they claim is currently causing all the problems with the country.

Who said les Rhinos were dead?

-srbp-

25 September 2008

You be the judge

Voice of the cabinet minister wrote it up as if the Great Oracle of the Valley had misquoted Danny Williams. Looks like it was hastily written and hastily posted to the VO website:
Who Said What?
September 25, 2008
The premier says he was misquoted. Danny williams [sic] today emphasized he did not say the nurses (sic) union came to the table during the most recent session with a new list of fiinancial [sic] demands. We had indicated he said they were new. He actually said it was a list of proposals that.(sic) carried financial costs. Today williams [sic] made sure the union knew what he actually said. He phoned debbie [sic] forward.
Well, here's what the said, followed by what he now claims he said. (mp3 file link to VOCM: http://www.vocm.com/audioClips/508125_danny%20(web).mp3)

You be the judge.
-srbp-
Almost immediate update:

After a bit of searching, your humble e-scribbler turned up the two original stories.

First came this one:
Premier Says Offer to Nurses Fair
September 24, 2008

Government has thrown cold water on hopes by nurses and other public sector workers that they might be in line for the same 35 per cent wage hike given to cancer specialists. The Nurses' Union walked away from the table last week, apparently unwilling to go along with the province's standard offer of twenty per cent over four years. Premier Williams says the situation with the gynecological oncologists was a special case and hence the 35 percent salary increase. He says the offer to nurses of 20 percent over four years is fair. Williams says recent conciliation ended because the nurses brought a long list of new financial demands to the table.
The VOCM story containing Debbie Forward's reply is also pretty clear:
Nurses' Union Fuming Over Premier's Remarks
September 25, 2008

The president of the Nurses' Union is fuming in the wake of comments from the premier on their dispute with government. This week the premier said recent conciliation talks ended because the nurses brought a long list of new financial demands to the table. Debbie Forward says the union brought no new items to the table when they met last. Forward says they were hoping to get a response to proposals the union had brought to the table earlier this year, but that didn't happen. Forward says her members are very upset about the premier's comments.
A transcript of the original voice clip from a VO story on 24 September was included in a news release from Conservative candidate Craig Westcott that took issue with the Premier's comments as reported by VOCM yesterday. Westcott's been working hard to get a rise out of Danny the past couple of days, including likening him to a mafia godfather.

Anyway, the transcript of the original clip is important because the version here contains some words that aren't in the revised VO version:
"(The Nurses' Union) came in with 27 or 28 financial asks, one of those being obviously the salary template, but other financial increments. So, 26, 27 other items. Now we can't deal, we can't negotiate on that basis. If we can get down to a realistic shortlist that we can address, then maybe we're able to address some of the concerns…"
Was he misquoted?

You be the judge.

If Obama could talk with Jed...

A meeting between the real-life Democratic nominee and the fictional Democrat President in which Jeb Bartlet advises Obama to get angry:

They have to lie — the truth isn’t their friend right now. Get angry. Mock them mercilessly; they’ve earned it.

Obama isn't the only liberal democrat who could stand with that kind of advice on how to deal with conservatives.

In another potion of Aaron Sorkin's work of fiction, there's an unsettling discussion about the attitude of Americans toward people who speak English and are well educated.

Hmm.  Kinda similar to the views offered by some people about a certain politician's facility with English.  To say they exaggerate would be an understatement.

-srbp-

The candidate podcast - St. John's South-Mount Pearl

CBC Radio's Morning Show entertained listeners this Thursday morning with four of the candidates in the federal riding of St. John's South Mount Pearl.

Missing was Newfoundland and Labrador First candidate Greg Byrne who is living in British Columbia these days.

You can find the two-parter audio files  here and here for the Q and A or go to cbc.ca/nl, click on "Programs" and then "St. John's Morning Show."

No point in spoiling the fun, but there are a couple of bits that stood out.

For starters, it was pretty obvious Siobhan Coady is perceived as the front runner, given that Conservative Merv Wiseman and self-described aging granola Ryan Cleary  - running for the party he called "losers" on several occasions as a columnist - spent a good chunk of time attacking her and the party she's running for. 

Coady helped them immensely by spending too much time focusing on the attacks on the Green Shift and giving rehearsed talking point responses instead of substantive answers.

On top of that, Coady and Cleary seemed to be working hard to pull the Provincial Conservative vote. 

At one point, Coady worked Loyola Hearn's campaign slogan into her responses, talking about how the fictitious "we" need to "Stand up for Newfoundland and Labrador."  Put that together with her pledge on the Hibernia shares and the Lower Churchill (apparently the biggie items of concern to voters in the riding) and the raft of Provincial Conservatives (former Hearn supporters) knocking doors for her and you pretty much have ABC in a Box.

For his part Cleary repeated "Danny" and "Danny Williams" so often and pledged his unwavering support for "Danny" that listeners likely expected him to claim he was strong, proud and determined to stand behind...well...you know..."Danny".

Of course, it's not like Cleary didn't write the odd column about Danny Williams in the Independent that seemed like the mash notes of a teenager whose heart has been broken by an unrequited love. 

Or calling into question the need for rule of law because his hero was ticked off at some mean old judgy wudgy.

Yes, Cleary is running for the New Democrats, although he's been known to take another political bus.

Merv Wiseman kept up his end of the discussion.  With all the Danny-lovin' in the room he must have been confused at some points, what with his own pledge of support for Danny hisself only a few months ago when Merv sought the Provincial Conservative nomination in Baie Verte Springdale.

Check out the pictures on the Morning Show website and you'll see Green candidate Ted Warren wearing his trademark leather jacket and shades.  Over the air, Warren held up his portion of the chat but the pictures make it look like he was trying to hide his identity.

Oh well, the seat is Coady's to lose and the CBC program was entertaining if nothing else.

Thursday after next, there's a chance for some serious blood on the walls when CBC brings together the crowd from St. John's East.  Expect Craig Westcott to take some pokes at perceived front-runner Jack Harris during that one.

Next week, the candidates from Avalon will have a go at each other.

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Noel returns to roots

Well, that is if you think New Democrats are just "socialist" big spenders who want to pour money - that is your tax dollars - down some gigantic bottomless pit all in the name of some vague purpose.

Now Noel wants to build a tunnel to Bell Island.

The road to nowhere in Alaska will now be matched by the hole to nowhere on the other end of the continent.  Nowhere in this case being where Noel's political future is headed, not the charming island in the middle of Conception Bay.

Noel, whose political fortunes in the current election are not looking good, seems to be thinking that if he channels Sarah Palin he might boost his chances of coming second behind Jack Harris.

What the heck could be next?

We shudder to think, given Noel's penchant for using public funds to pay for crystal, women's clothes and perfume he handed out as gifts.

Let's not even consider that maybe Noel's going to try some naughty librarian makeover next.

With every utterance, Walter Noel proves it is time for change in our politics. 

Walter makes it pretty clear that change is not Walter Noel.

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Cult of Personality, federal version

Margaret Atwood in the Thursday Globe:

Or is it even worse? Every budding dictatorship begins by muzzling the artists, because they're a mouthy lot and they don't line up and salute very easily. Of course, you can always get some tame artists to design the uniforms and flags and the documentary about you, and so forth - the only kind of art you might need - but individual voices must be silenced, because there shall be only One Voice: Our Master's Voice. Maybe that's why Mr. Harper began by shutting down funding for our artists abroad. He didn't like the competition for media space.

Of course, it's far easier and far more effective to just toss a few bucks at the local "culture" club right before an election to get them to sing your praises.

And you can still have what Atwood calls a cult of personality.

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24 September 2008

The return of the past in our present

1.  Past master of his domain: Lin Jackson, intellectual godfather of Newfoundland neo-nationalism during the 1980s comes out of retirement to pen a letter in the Wednesday Telegram. Sadly, it isn't online.

Here's an excerpt:

It was thus on Quebec's behalf that Pierre Trudeau's Supreme Court of Canada circumvented our constitutional right to free transmission of power across provinces; it was deference to favoured foreign nations that caused Fisheries and Oceans to mismanage, and finally ruin, the Atlantic cod fishery; and the opportunity to use offshore resources to finally become a "have" province was denied us due to Western objections coupled with Harper's view of us as a "culture of defeat.

Three points. 

Three fables.

It's nice to build an argument on things you make up.

2.  Clearyisms:  Before he edited The Independent, Ryan Cleary guided Geoff Sterling's venerable organ, The Herald. Here are some of Ryan's bons mots for your mid-week campaigning enjoyment:

[Jack] Harris' district of Signal Hill/Quidi Vidi takes in [the] east end of St. John's where the granolas live. The granolas are known for their intelligence and artistic flair and for voting against the grain. So many of them started out with high hopes to change the world... They still vote New Democrat, out of habit if nothing else... For the New Democrats, the trek to victory will only begin when the party sees itself as a winner. And not the loser that it is.  (March 2, 2003, p.3)

There have been charges that Williams has too tight a reign [sic] on his caucus. He shakes the criticism off, advising reporters to ask his MHAs if that’s the case. There’s also been talk for years that Williams has a fiery temper, and isn’t happy when things don’t go his way. Williams admits to having a temper in his younger years, but says he’s “mellowed with age.” (January 26, 2003)

The character and grit of a Williams’ [sic] government will only reveal itself when the administration stands on its feet and takes sole responsibility for its action. (January 19, 2003)

h/t to Mark Watton's post at democraticspace.com and a loyal reader for these blasts from the past.

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The problem with being known, ABC version

1.  MUN political science professor Alex Marland, a former comms director in the Williams administration, pointed out to voice of the cabinet minister that the majority of Canadians aren't paying any attention to the Family Feud.

2.  Meanwhile, the Premier is still waiting for answers from the Liberals and Conservatives to his begging letter to Ottawa. Williams wanted a response by September 26 to his eight page list of cash demands from the federal government.  So far, Jack Layton is the only federal leader to reply.  Elizabeth May of the Green Party didn't get a letter.

Maybe there's a problem with being known.

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Humber Valley Resort reporting online

Gary Kelly's eponymous blog has been doing yeoman service covering the goings-on at Humber Valley Resort as the resort goes through its current financial travails.

This story hasn't been picked up in the local media but odds are it will gain greater attention in the days ahead.

One of the items Gary posted is an e-mail from Newfound NV that discusses the company's efforts to turn the resort around.  It begins forthrightly enough and then lays out the rationale behind the current creditor protection arrangement:

As I am sure that you are aware, Humber Valley Resort has had a very difficult time since its inception. The company has never made a profit and has failed to deliver on many of the promises made to some of the related parties over the years. We (the new management team at Newfound) were unaware of the full extent of some of these issues until we began a thorough investigation into the operation and fiscal condition of the Resort. I have huge sympathy with you during this period of uncertainty, which follows years of inappropriate management within an unsustainable business model - you must be worried about the future of your investment in Humber Valley. [Emphasis added]

If you want to keep track of the saga of a great idea gone awry, Gary Kelly is on top of the story.

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That was now, this is then

Walter Noel, Liberal candidate in St. John's East:

Electing an NDP [sic] could deprive the Liberals of enough seats to beat Stephen Harper. Voting NDP could give the socialists the balance of power in Parliament, the ability to wreck our economy.

Walter didn't always think that way.

Well, at least not in 1974.

Noel ran for the "socialists" in the old riding of St. John's West, coming in third with about 3400 votes. Walter Carter took the seat for the Progressive Conservatives.  Lillian Bouzane came in second for the Liberals.

S. Carey Skinner polled 143 votes for the Social Credit Party.

Will "aging granola" Ryan Cleary do better than Walter did 34 years ago?

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