Random-Burin-St. Georges: a quick look at the results

 Random-Burin-St. Georges is a relatively new seat resulting from re-apportionment before the 2004 election.

However, the seat continues to trend as a decidedly Liberal seat, carrying on the trend pre-2004.

The 2008 result is not the one to look at closely here.  rather we need to look at 2006. 

That was the year the Provincial Conservatives threw their political weight behind the federal Conservative party.

The Blue team ran a staunch Provincial Conservative closely associated with the Premier. 

She had campaigned relentlessly between 2004 and 2006 against the incumbent, largely by using a refugee family's plight in a church basement as a rod with which to beat the incumbent and his party.

It apparently escaped her notice that the party she ran for had a policy diametrically opposed to her own stated position on this issue. In the end, her campaign was also caught up in the in-out scheme even though, as these results show, Random-Burin-St. Georges was not a lost cause for the Blue team.

The New Democrats ran a candidate from outside the riding in that election.  Not surprisingly, she fared considerably worse than the popular fisheries activist the NDP had run in 2004.

In that race, the Conservatives appear to have pulled voters who had voted NDP in 2004 and added a few thousand more besides.  The Liberal candidate - Bill Matthews - also increased his vote share.  Overall, turnout in the riding increased by slightly less than 4,000  voters.

What we don't see here is a collapse of the Conservative vote.  Rather, in 2008, it sank back to what essentially appears to be its core. The New Democrat vote declined by 3244 but did not slip back to its 2006 level.  The Liberal vote declined by 1100 votes.

Overall, it would appear that the New Democrats in 2008 had picked up some soft vote that in 2006 had gone to the Conservatives.  The bulk of the 2006 Conservative vote stayed home.

More than in some others, the vote pattern in this riding may have been affected by the remittance labour force from the Burin Peninsula currently working in Alberta. Without more detailed analysis it is difficult to know how much of this vote pool actually turned out and if it did, how it voted.

Even though the 2006 incumbent did not seek re-election, this is not a riding that was affected by Family Feud as obviously as in the three ridings on the Avalon peninsula.

It is interesting to speculate, though, what might have happened had the Provincial Conservatives taken an entirely different approach in 2008.

-srbp-

Friday Follies: a round-up of the week's odds and ends

1.  Pete didn't get the memo:  Peter MacKay apparently didn't hear about the kiss-and-make-up comments from his boss the Prime Minister and Danny Williams over this whole Family Feud thingy.  Speaking with the Chronicle Herald, the guy touted as being minister responsible for Newfoundland and Labrador laid it on the line:

“I think he’s just cooling his jets until his next blow-up," said Mr. MacKay. “He’s got a mercurial personality and all indications are that the next time that the wind changes or he feels offended, he’ll go off like a mad hatter again."

Mr. MacKay, who will likely end up as Newfoundland and La­brador’s representative at federal cabinet, said the premier of Newfoundland and Labrador “has lost the plot."

“It did become so irrational and personally vindictive on the part of a Conservative premier," he said.

Ermmm.

It wasn't the Mad Hatter that went about shouting "Off with her head."

2.  That's so 1960s:  Also in the Chronicle Herald, the accumulated wisdom of a few of Halifax's advertising geniuses.  Like, for instance, Don Veinish from Cossette Atlantic:

Danny Williams’s ABC campaign sure seemed to work, but I have to plead ignorance on whether it involved advertising or not.

Thanks for paying attention, Donny.

Then again, you just about prove the point you made:

People these days are exposed to the best of everything in the communications arena, including advertising. OK-ish ad efforts aren’t OK because they don’t meet the standard and tend to be disregarded or entirely disdained. Bottom line: If advertising had made much of a difference, there would be a difference today. There isn’t.

Speaking of not meeting the standard and tending to be disregarded, wonder how Don would feel about the idea of a billboard on the Gardiner? 

3.  Dons and Peelers:  Turns out that both some local bands of bobbies as well as Oxford University (as well as 11 other universities and assorted government entities) were stunned enough to squirrel away money in Icelandic banks.

4. Suck AND Blow:  New Labour starts to look a lot like old Conservatives, right down to the complete absence of logic:

[Culture (!!!???) secretary Andy] Burnham said that the "online challenge" had resulted in two dangerous tendencies emerging.

Firstly he criticized the burgeoning tendency in television to mimic the user-generated, "here's my blog" feel of much of the Internet, particularly in current affairs and news.

"The Internet as a whole is an excellent source of casual opinion," he said. "TV is where people often look for expert or authoritative opinion."

The second reaction to the rise of the Internet has been a "tendency towards safety first and the tried-and-tested, and way from innovation, risk-taking and new talent", he argued.

So on the one hand television is tending toward innovation, risk-taking and new talent by aping the Internet but at the same time, television is tending away from innovation, risk-taking and new talent.

The only challenge here would seem to come for Andy when thought is involved in his activities. [h/t to Guido Fawkes]

5. Blow and Suck:  Also from Guido, the story of a pollster in a conflict of interest.  Speaking of conflict of interest, thank heavens no pollsters in eastern Canada would do work for government and at the same time release poll results without disclosing that government had helped fund the poll on local politicians' popularity or lack thereof. 

Like say upwards of four times a year?

Nah.

Could never happen.

6.  Blown away?  A google blog search for "danny williams + intimidation" turned up two links to a blog by Paul Russell from Newfoundland and Labrador called Life, Writing and Everything Else.

They contained two references to alleged political intimidation.

Click on the link and you'll find that...

wait for it...

 

 

 

 

 

The blog's gone.

Suddenly.

Not just the posts.

The whole blog.

Hmmm.

Now it's not like he violated the broadcast prohibitions under the Canada Elections Act like at least one local blog did on Tuesday night.

Even if that were the case, the worst that could happen would be a fine.

A big fine.

But not death to the entire operation.

Nope.

Paul Russell, if you're out there, drop us a line and let us know what happened to your blog and those posts.

After all, they're just allegations and as long as they are labeled as such and unless and until someone brings forward evidence to back up the claims, no one should have a problem with it.

-srbp-

Auspicious beginnings

1.  Useful in a Conservative campaign news release with a quote critical of your own party that gets

2.  Highlighted by the Conservative's national newspaper in a story that mentions his

3.  Attack on the leader of his party [Hint: The Lampoon  love quoting Liberals knifing other Liberals in the back] and

4.  the guy's not even sworn in yet.

Yes, with fresh ideas like this, Liberals are well on their way back to power.

-srbp-

Avalon: a quick look at the results

If there ever was a campaign which showed the power of negative campaigning, it's Avalon.

From a time well before the writ dropped, incumbent Conservative Fabian Manning received countless vicious personal attacks.

That includes a reference to Manning as a "traitor" by no less than Premier Danny Williams. That savage rhetoric continued throughout the campaign from many quarters, including from a strong supporter of the Andrews and Harris campaigns.

Liberal Scott Andrews, the only serious competitor piled on relentlessly, lightening up only for the last week or two.

That didn't mean the attacks stopped since the Family Feud deployed at least three cabinet ministers to the area north of the Trans-Canada Highway to work their persuasive magic on local Provincial Conservatives.

Through all that, Manning did phenomenally better than his colleagues in the St. John's ridings. In St. John's East, the Conservatives captured only 20% of the vote from 2006.  In St. John's South-Mount Pearl, 26% of the vote held.

In Avalon, Manning held on to about 60% of his vote from 2006.  Still and all, he lost 7590 votes.

Interestingly enough, the drop in voter turn out and the increased vote for Green, Liberal and New Democrat candidates totals 7582.  That's not likely a coincidence.

What's noticeable in Avalon is that the lost votes didn't migrate to another party. They appear to have just stayed home in large numbers.

Scott Andrews increased the Liberal vote by 4%, or 548 votes. 

The largest jump in votes for any candidate was in the New Democrat column which saw a 70% jump (2343 votes). If those votes came from disgruntled Provincial Conservatives, the attractiveness of New Democrats would largely be defined by one quality:  they aren't Liberals. The same quality likely had a strong influence on Blue voter choice in the St. John's ridings for those who came out to vote.

-srbp-

The Blue Shaft

Narrow partisan considerations reared their ugly head in a meeting of the legislature's management committee.

An independent study commissioned by the House of Assembly management commission recommends an increase in budgets for the Provincial Conservative, Liberal and New Democratic causes in the House of Assembly.

MR. SPEAKER: Okay. Provide base funding for the Government Members’ Caucus of $100,000 annually.

The Chair is ready for discussion.

Ms Burke.

MS BURKE: That is one recommendation that I support.

Joan Burke, education minister and government house leader may have enthusiastically voted money for her political friends but in the end, the Provincial Conservative members of the legislature's internal management commission support every single recommendation, except one. 

That one allocated $162,000 to the Official Opposition office to ensure a well-funded opposition that would have appropriate resources to carry out its important legislative function in a modern democracy.  The study reviewed legislature budgets across Canada and in several foreign parliaments.

The report included a set of general principles on democratic legislatures and caucus funding. They included, among others:

3. The legislature must be strong vis-à-vis the executive in order for democratic government to be effective.

...

5. In adversarial systems, the Opposition and other parties play important roles and need institutionalized protections.

...

One cannot imagine a more straightforward set of principles.  In order to drive home their point on the importance of a legislature with a properly funded opposition, the authors included an observation on events in several provinces where opposition benches were depleted after an election:

The crucial thing is that there has to be informed opposition, and that takes resources. However, one other consideration is germane here. That is that in first-past-the-post (single member plurality) systems such as those that exist in Canada, there is a danger of opposition shut-outs or quasi shut-outs as the electoral system exaggerates the winner’s share of seats. This has been seen in general elections in the provinces of Newfoundland and Labrador, PEI, New Brunswick, Alberta and British Columbia. There needs to be a kind of “Opposition Bill of Rights” to deal with such anomalies, since Westminster systems
depend on adversarialism.

The Provincial Conservative members took a decidedly different view. Innovation minister Trevor Taylor put it this way:

MR. TAYLOR: Mr. Chairman, I don’t need to reiterate everything that Ms Burke just said, but I think if you just look at it from a perspective, a base allocation, one would think that a base allocation would be a base for all caucuses. Why the principles of Metrics EFG would differentiate is hard for me to follow, to be honest about it. [Emphasis added]

That last statement could not be more painfully obvious or true.

The extent to which the Provincial Conservative members also picked at petty issues is evident in the transcript of the session.  Education minister Joan Burke seemed concerned either to micromanage issues - as with Memorial University - or to ensure that no one got a few dollars more in his or her budget than she had available in hers:

MS BURKE: I have a question on that, and I think it may be just a clarification.

It says that the assistant to the Opposition House Leader is $49,000 and the assistant to the Government House Leader is $43,000. So, is this simply a case where there is a step progression but it would be the same job?

Okay, I just wanted to clarify that because in the report it kind of stands out as to why and I thought that would have been the explanation.

MR. SPEAKER: Yes. My understanding is that the assistant to the Leader of the Opposition has gone through the step progression to reflect that salary, and the assistant to the Government House Leader will do the incremental steps to get up to that particular salary as well.

MS BURKE: In essence what we are saying is, instead of it being, say, $49,000 there, that would depend, I guess – that is only an indication of where an individual would be on a step. If that position changed tomorrow, that $49,000 could potentially be, I do not know, $38,000 or $39,000.

Outside the meeting the Provincial Conservatives defended their actions as being about responsible management of public spending. 

-srbp-

St. John's East: a quick look at the results

Jack Harris was the beneficiary of a double whammy on Tuesday.

First of all, Danny Williams' former law partner profited from the near total collapse of the Conservative vote as a result of the Family feud.

Well known Provincial Conservative Ed Buckingham's appearance at Jack's campaign launch foretold a considerable movement of Blue to Orange.

It was no accident.

Provincial cabinet ministers supported Harris publicly.  Even without turning out at Jack's headquarters, they could easily mobilise their own teams to drive votes to the polls for Harris.

Second of all, Harris profited from the  collapse of the Liberal vote, attributable almost entirely to Walter Noel's candidacy. While less dramatic than the Conservative drop, the Liberal candidate shed over 9000 votes all of which appear to have moved to the New Democrats on their own.

In some media interviews Harris pointed to an increased voter turnout in the riding, as if that showed some ground swell of support for his candidacy beyond the Family Feud effect.

Horse hockey.

The increase in turnout from 2006 was 875, a mere 2% jump.

The tale of the electoral tape in St. John's East is easy to see. Add the NDP 2006 number to the difference in votes for the Liberals and Conservatives.  You'll find yourself close as can be to Harris' vote count.

Early commentary suggested that Harris' win and the strong showing of former Independent editor Ryan Cleary in St. John's South-Mount Pearl marked some radical new age for the province's New Democrats:

“I think one of the stories of this election is the real dawning of a new day for the NDP in this province,” said [Memorial University political science professor Christopher] Dunn. “It really has firm urban roots here now.”

In fact, the NDP’s Ryan Cleary was neck in neck with Liberal Siobhan Coady in St. John’s South-Mount Pearl for most of the night, before Coady pulled away taking the seat by 1,047 votes, a mere three per cent difference in the popular vote between the two.

“It also shows the NDP is becoming very serious about its choice of candidates. When they run candidates with high profiles, they do very well,” continued Dunn who called Harris a “force to be reckoned with.”

That's not the case if one assesses where the vote came from.

In both St. John's East and St. John's South-Mount Pearl, the surge in New Democrat votes came predominantly from Provincial Conservatives.  Of Harris' total vote, about half came from the Provincial Conservatives. Another political alignment will rob the NDP of that support just as easily as it was delivered.

One point doesn't make a trend, but another kind will burst a few bubbles.

Pop!

-srbp-

St. John's South-Mount Pearl: a quick look at the results

The Family Feud had a pretty clear impact on the vote result in St. John's South-Mount Pearl.

The difference between the Conservative vote in 2006 and the Conservative vote in 2008 is the increase in Liberal and New Democrat vote, a smattering of votes for the other candidates and a large group (almost 3,000) that apparently didn't vote.

These would be almost entirely Provincial Conservatives who were constrained in their choices by activities within their own normal political camp.

The New Democrats were primary beneficiary of the Feud with an increased vote of 5810.  Some 2927 didn't vote, apparently.  The Liberal vote share increased by 2635.

Overall turnout was slightly above that of 2004 - when there was another spat within the Conservative party - but the total count of eligible voters increased as well from 2004 to 2008.

Liberal and New Democratic vote share did not change appreciably from 2004 to 2006.  The increase in Conservative vote in 2006, compared to 2004, can be attributed to a suppression that resulted from internal problems between the Provincial and federal Conservatives.  In 2006, the Provincial Conservatives supported their federal brethren openly.

-srbp-

The real ABC goal

Bond Paper's post election summary:

"...the Blue Machine is a better friend than enemy, at least for other Blue people."

Danny Williams' post-election summary:

“If there had been a good rapport … they possibly could have 150 seats. That would put them in striking distance of a majority,” he said.

Ahem.

-srbp-

The NL election summary

1.  Since 1949, Newfoundlanders and Labradorians have typically voted in the majority anything but Conservative in federal elections.  Biggest thing to remember, but every single one of the media types and most of the local pundits just got lost in the Family Feud hype.  It spilled over into national reporting which was - for the most part - facile.

2.  The biggest impact of the Family Feud in 2008 was to bleed the federal Conservatives of candidates, money and volunteers.  It also suppressed the Conservative vote since Provincial Conservatives typically vote for their federal cousins.

Take a look at the results.  Turn outs are down.  The people who didn't vote are mostly Blue people.

The Conservatives got a taste of the Feud in 2004 when the Provincial Conservatives didn't turn out in any numbers for their friends.  There was no organized campaign, but there was a chill.

3.  St. John's East.  Jack Harris profited from picking up some of the Blue vote but his real surge came from the near total collapse of the Liberal vote. That wasn't ABC.  That was ABW.

4.  Avalon.  A couple of big changes in the last two weeks helped to really make the difference. 

First, Scott Andrews toned down the shrill rhetoric and started to sound like a member of parliament. He started to sound like someone to vote for instead of a guy picking up votes against someone else.  That seems to have had its biggest impact in the part of the riding north of the Trans Canada Highway which, for the most part, has tended to vote Red in federal elections.

Andrews was working hard anyway but as he started to sound more like the guy most of us know, it looks like he shifted votes.

Second, the Provincial Conservatives deployed some of their cabinet ministers and workers to twist arms. Whether that pulled votes to Andrews or suppressed Blue votes, the result was the same.

5.  St. John's South-Mount Pearl.  Midway through the election, poll results showed the Liberals and New Democrats holding onto their vote shares from the past two elections. The Blue votes sat in the undecided category.

At the polls, the Blues came out in a split between Orange and Red, with both picking up nearly equal shares.  Incumbency has its advantages if they can be understood and used effectively.

6.  Random-Burin-St. Georges.  Not a seat that figured in most people's "Watch" list since it's usually gone Red, but the story here is one of an experienced campaigner who worked hard to get the nomination and then to win the seat.  Judy Foote is a former provincial cabinet minister and someone to watch for in the months ahead.  She's tough and savvy and the two Liberal newbies would do well to watch closely what Judy does.

7.  The future.  The lesson of this election is that a divided Blue team leaves the field open. If the Conservatives can heal the rift, then the next federal election could turn out quite differently. Given the seat counts, Provincial Conservatives could have wielded gigantic  - maybe even unprecedented  - influence if they'd turned out for their friends and looked to turn more seats Blue.  They have a machine and they could have used it for niceness, at least for Conservatives.

Instead, they opted to cut throats. 

That might be too much for their brethren to forgive.  Then again, the game theorists in Ottawa might realize that even confined to a single province, the Blue Machine is a better friend than enemy, at least for other Blue people.

If the rift heals, then the next election could have vastly different results.

Jack Harris will have a time facing the likes of Beth Marshall in St. John's East.   Siobhan Coady will face someone like Tom Osborne who comes backed with a family clan that dominates the metro St. John's Conservative scene.

In Avalon, we might expect Fabian Manning to try a comeback.  He'll get some kind of reward for his loyalty.  Depending on what it is, he could be spending the next few months working hard to win back the seat he held until tonight.

The votes might be counted in seven sits, but this fight ain't over yet.

-srbp-

The greatest piece of nonsense in a generation

Memorial University political science professor Michael Temelini likes to refer to the 2005 Atlantic Accord as an example of what can happen in a minority parliament.

The greatest piece of public policy in a generation he calls it.

That's not hyperbole.

That's just nonsense.

The 2005 agreement simply transferred $2.0 billion in federal cash to provincial coffers.  It hasn't produced a penny of new money since then.  It won't produce any more since the provincial government ceases to qualify for Equalization this year and won't qualify to renew the deal.

What Temelini either forgets or doesn't know is that offshore oil sits - constitutionally  - in federal jurisdiction. 

Under the real Atlantic Accord - signed in 1985 - the provincial government basically gets de facto control of the offshore, and more importantly sets and collects 100% of revenues as if the resource was on land.  The federal government collects typical federal revenues like income taxes, GST and corporate taxes.

All the royalties go to the provincial government.

And that's where they stay until the provincial government spends them.

Not a penny goes to Ottawa.

Never has.

At least not since 1985.

The enabling legislation for the real Atlantic Accord passed through parliament in 1987.  The provincial enabling legislation passed around the same time.

The agreement was signed between two majority governments.

But here's the thing.

Legally, constitutionally, the federal government wasn't obliged to do anything at all, let alone sign the 1985 deal.

The 1985 Atlantic Accord was one of the greatest pieces of Canadian public policy in a generation.

It is the sole foundation on which the provincial government's oil revenues rest.

Take that away and the 2005 deal is nothing at all

-srbp-

Incompetence or corruption?

Either way, you can call it a plague.

There's no other word that comes easily to mind to describe the insidious, weasel-politicking that goes on in far too many organizations across the province. 

The federation of agriculture is not the first group and it sadly won't be the last one to have a board whose members, at some point, think it more important to cave in to perceived political pressure rather than do the right thing.

The sorry truth is that boot-licking and arse-kissing are old political staples in Newfoundland and Labrador.  Politicians don't even need to ask to have their best wellies tongue-shined to perfection.

Take a look at the extracts from a letter from the agriculture federation board to Merv Wiseman, currently the Conservative candidate in St. John's South-Mount Pearl.

What we have in the case of the agriculture federation and Merv Wiseman is not something as simple as a poorly worded letter conveying a board decision about the dates of Wiseman's leave of absence.  That's what the federation tried to say when this issue erupted.

Rather we have clear evidence that the federation board wished to avoid causing any difficulty with the current administration by directing the president to stay away from the meeting.  This could have been handled more diplomatically.  This certainly might not have even been an issue, given that Wiseman will hardly be in any shape to go back to his usual job with the federation tomorrow.

From the context of the letter, the meaning is unmistakable.

And it is wrong.

This sort of situation is not something unique to the current administration;  the same sort of anti-democratic decisions have been taken by groups in the past.  It's just that with the current crowd,  in an environment where going against the government is called treason - and people actually stand up for their right to use such savage language -  the weak-minded and morally bankrupt out there take that as a sign that all those who are potentially not in the favour of the government must be silenced.

Some of them think they will get brownie points for attacking the regime's enemies. 

Take a look at two of the final paragraphs and you can see that the board understood full well the gravity of the decision it made and the reasons for it.

Notice that last bit:  it says - in effect - that if Wiseman wants to put the best interests of the industry first he will concur with the board's decision to stay away from the next meeting.

What sanctimonious tripe.

To her credit, the provincial minister responsible for agriculture has already distanced herself from the federation and this letter.  She couldn't do anything else and still retain a semblance of dignity.

But for the record, she ought to make it plain that it is never in the best interests of the province for any board of any organization anywhere to take the decision that the federation did.

We are all cheapened by such a fundamentally anti-democratic sentiment.

Wiseman ought not to attend the meeting because he is on a leave of absence.

The board told him not to attend because of the ongoing controversy between the current provincial administration and its federal counterpart.

The former is legitimate.

The latter is indefensible.  The board ought to resign immediately, en masse.  It has shown itself to be incompetent at best or political corrupt at worst.

 

-srbp-

International roundup of financial crisis developments

1.  The United Kingdom will loan Iceland 100 million pounds sterling to assist its Landesbanki repay British creditors of the nationalised Icelandic bank.

This is not surprising given the number of local councils that did their banking through Icesave, the Landsbanki subsidiary:

But there was increasing concern about the amount of British public and charitable-sector money deposited in Iceland's stricken banks. As much as £1bn of local council money is thought to be at stake, with British charities estimating their exposure at around £60m. "There are more than 50 charities that have deposits there," said Stephen Bubb, chief executive of the Association of Chief Executives of Voluntary Organisations.

2.  Meanwhile in Scotland, Scottish nationalists are putting a brave face on the financial crisis. According to some reports, the first minister has been ducking questions about whether an independent Scotland could have funded a 32 billion pound bailout of Scottish banks.  He's also been faced with questions about the so-called Arc of Prosperity which Scottish nationalists have used as proof that an independent Scotland could do well on its own.  Of the four countries in the arc,  Iceland is teetering on the verge of bankruptcy, Denmark and Ireland are in recession and Norway is experiencing its own difficulties.

As Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling stepped in to save Scotland's two biggest banks, the Scottish Government tried to avoid questions over how an independent Scotland would have coped with the international crisis. A spokesman for Alex Salmond, the First Minister, said he would "not speculate on a theoretical future event" and refused to say whether he believed an independent Scotland could have bailed out its banks to the tune of £32 billion.

However, he insisted the SNP would still try to push through a referendum bill in 2010, even though if people voted Yes to independence, Scotland's two main banks would be owned by a "foreign" UK government.

At the same time, the Scottish local government is looking at ways of avoiding a recession in Scotland.

3.  Dutch local governments are also affected by the Landsbanki problems.  Twelve local councils have a total of 59 million euros with Landsbanki while the province of Zeeland has five million euros in the bankrupt American firm Lehman Brothers.

4.  France, Germany and Russia have announced separate bailout plans worth almost $1.3 trillion.

5.  Ireland and Australia are guaranteeing bank deposits.  The Irish government guarantee applies only to Irish banks, not subsidiaries of foreign banks.

6.  Ireland is about to introduce a tough national budget that will raise hospital charges and cut tax relief.

All hospital charges are to increase significantly - by 10 per cent in many cases, including charges to be treated in accident and emergency, or to have a private bed in a public hospital.

Despite the fee rises, the Health Service Executive will be forced to make serious cuts in existing services to stay within budget - which will be €400 million more than last year, but still not enough to meet extra wage bills and other costs.

-srbp-

The old Connies make a come back

Hiding candidates from the media and shoving reporters who try and ask a question.

Yeah, not like we haven't seen that before.

Will CTV look for assault charges to be laid?

"The non-consensual application of force by one person to another is an assault."

-srbp-

Aussie Dippers

It may be the website for The Australian, but a Canadian IP address will turn up a Canadian ad.

There's a CIBC one.

And one for the New Democratic Party and Jack Layton.

There's a pretty creative use of the Internet and it would be interesting to know how many Canadian voters actually saw the Dipper's Aussie ad.

-srbp-

At the last minute, Harris ducks

In the last hours of the campaign, New Democrat candidate Jack Harris was hit with a simple, straightforward question.

Rather than answer it just as straightforwardly, he ducked it with a comment that his Conservative opponent was raising it at the last minute.

Maybe Jack needs to trying answering the question about what he plans to do with his considerable provincial pension.

After all, it can't be a good thing when Walter Noel is backing you with some comment about why people shouldn't worry about a politician's other sources of income.

Hmmm.

Makes you wonder on a subject no one should wonder about.

-srbp-

The Fruitloop Factory

There's no allowing for the myriad reason why people feel the need to make stuff up, nor that they would use this false stuff for their own political ends.

Nope.

All we can wonder about is how people actually wind up believe sheer crap and run around repeating it like it was...

true.

Stuff that can be easily shown to be...wait for it...completely false.

Like say the stuff about Barak Obama.

-srbp-

Iceland eyes IMF

As they prepared to head to Moscow to negotiation a four billion euro bailout, Icelandic officials gave signs on Sunday the country was looking at the International Monetary Fund as a potential source of help during the country's economic collapse. [Reuters-Iceland]

"My conclusion is that if we appeal to the IMF, other central banks and other nations would follow that track," Industry Minister Ossur Skarphedinsson told the Morgunbladid newspaper in a report published on its website on Sunday.

In related news, the Norwegian bank regulator moved on Sunday to take control of the Iceland bank Kaupthing's Norwegian arm. [Reuters - Norway]

-srbp-

Vote Dipper to stop the seal hunt

Why else would IFAW care about an election race in Canada?

 

-srbp-

Fishing for votes

Outgoing Connie fish minister Loyola Hearn is extending the damn fool fishery - an annual cod plunder disguised as tradition - just in time to try and snag a few more votes.

The only way for cod stocks to recover to commercial level is to keep these kinds of people off the water.

-srbp-

Harper hides

Okay, so the guy who will only speak to reporters in highly controlled conditions, is now canceling all media availabilities for the remainder of the campaign.

And this surprises who, exactly?

Meanwhile, in other news, reporters are burning their notebooks and any electronic record of their gushing over Harper's sudden appearance at breakfast early in the campaign. [Link to a National Self-Lampoon version.  Yes, it's the Lampoon but for some reason other media outlets fell for the bullshit even though they are genetically predisposed to ingest pre-digest pap and regurgitate it on command.]

Like that wasn't contrived either.

Sheesh.

During this campaign we have seen once again the ability of news media types to completely ignore the fact they are being manipulated despite ample evidence of the intention to manipulate.

Does anyone  - you'd have to be old enough - recall the whole roll of the dice piece from the Globe right before the whole Meech end game?  Same idea.

-srbp-

"Confederation is in danger": Cleary

Ryan Cleary, New Democratic Party, St. John's South-Mount Pearl, on his election blog:

“Confederation is in danger,” I said.

“Jack Layton, Jack Harris and myself can bring it back to safe ground.”

Ryan Cleary, editor of The Independent, May 2008:

I don’t want to seem ungrateful, but now that we’re rolling in the cash it may be time to consider breaking away from the country of Canada. If we’re teetering on the edge of economic independence anyway, why not go all the way and raise the Pink, White and Green outside Confederation Building?

Ummmm.

Which one are we supposed to believe is how Ryan really feels?

-srbp-

"Worse than first thought": Aussie foreign minister

From The Australian:

THE government's cabinet budget committee will meet later today to take any action deemed necessary from key meetings of the International Monetary Fund and Group of 20 finance ministers in New York today.

Foreign Minister Stephen Smith said there was a growing realisation that the international financial crisis was worse than originally thought.

-srbp-

CTV/ATV hatchet job

ATV and CTV are getting ripped for their hatchet job of Stephane Dion, and rightly so.

Geoff Meeker's media blog at the Telegram is a case in point.

May we expect a retraction any time soon from ATV and CTV?

Don't bet on it.

CTV's Craig Oliver is not only unfazed by the whole business, he trumpets it as a supposed example of how the country supposedly won't tolerate a leader who is not comfortable in both official languages.

The veteran journalists who commented at Geoff's post would disagree with Oliver's contention that the question would be "indelibly clear" "[t]o anyone with any comfort zone in English...".

The one point from Oliver's excuse pile that most would agree with is that the episode damaged Dion, even if only for a short while.

The next question top raise is why the whole episode occurred in the first place.  A network that features a dubious piece of analysis by Conrad Winn on its website in to different areas - the election and "world" space - should not be surprised if people started questioning its partisan affiliation. 

 

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Dear Conrad...

Get a grip.

Obama was leading McCain before the meltdown.

McCain's miserable performance in the wake of the economic crisis has only worsened his position.

Some recent polls have Obama as much as 11 points in front of McCain nationally. Even Fox News analysts would have to reach to claim Obama is "fighting" to hold on to a "slim" lead.

That's nothing to shake a stick at.

It starts to get worse for McCain when one notices the shifts occurring in key demographic segments to Obama and away from McCain/Palin.

As for the Bill Ayers thing, the most spectacular point is that the McCain/Palin attack on that point has had almost no discernable impact on the latest Obama surge.

Perhaps your analysis is -  in a word -  simplistic.

Ditto the Canadian stuff.

In the past week or so we have seen the Conservative support in Quebec tumble as a direct response to Conservative messaging gaffes. No minor issues;  major gaffes.  The Conservatives who were poised to increase the Quebec riding count will now struggle to hold on to what they have.  Some numbers suggest their riding count will be halved.

Numbers have shifted dramatically in key Ontario ridings and even in British Columbia there has been a noticeable shift in voter intentions.

This hardly favours the Conservatives "one way or the other".

Far from being a case where voter intentions were solidly formed long ago in an election that may see "a "watershed" that changes fundamental voting patterns and party dominance for years to come", the current Canadian federal election is an example of how even front-runners can prove unpalatable to the majority of electors based on elector experienced with them.

Evidently there's something sitting close to Conrad's compass that is skewing his perspective.

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Crude futures settle below US$78

Bloomberg.com is reporting that West Texas Intermediate for November delivery finished trading at the New York Mercantile Exchange at US$77.70 a barrel, the lowest price for front-month crude futures since last year.

Brent crude - closest in price to Grand Banks light, sweet - closed the day at US$74.09, a drop of almost eight and a half dollars from the day before. That puts crude oil $13 below the average price assumed by the provincial government at budget time last April.

At close of trading on Friday, crude futures up to April were below US$80 a barrel.

In other energy news, Harvest Energy - owners of the Come by Chance refinery - have delayed a planned $2.0 billion expansion of the 115K barrel per day refinery until 2010. Current economic turmoil is also forcing other energy companies to rethink plans in western Canada.

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Jack channels Al Gore, in a bad way

New Democrat candidate Jack Harris seemed to be channeling Al Gore at the all candidates debate on CBC Radio Thursday.

No, not Enviro-Champ Al Gore, but the "I invented the Internet" version.

Morning Show host Jeff Gilhooley asked Harris what he would be able to accomplish for the riding if he were elected as an opposition bencher.

Harris replied he could do lots.

Like say when he was here in Newfoundland and Labrador, on the opposition benches:

"We've got school bussing in St. John's, which we didn't have, thanks to me."

Huh?

Thanks to Jack?

Jack may have advocated for school bussing but the service was extended to include metropolitan St. John's by Lloyd Matthews, the Liberal cabinet minister filling in for Judy Foote who was on sick leave at the time.

The candidates took turns whacking Jack largely because the polls have him way out in front of the rest.  They brought up all manner of points.  The video  - available at cbc.ca/nl/features/debate - makes for some entertaining viewing, even if the audio sucks.

Conservative Craig Westcott got in some of the sharpest licks, including one over Jack and what he plans to do with his provincial pension if he is elected to Ottawa. He kept it up on Friday with a statement aimed squarely at the issue of potential double-dipping by the former member of the provincial legislature:

"Yesterday during our all-candidate debate I posed a very simple question to NDP candidate Jack Harris: if he is elected to serve in Ottawa, will he follow in Norm Doyle's footsteps and donate his provincial pension to charity?

"Mr. Harris avoided answering this question during our debate. So I pose the question again: what will Jack do?"

"I'm not necessarily saying it's wrong to do it, but voters in St. John's East should know Jack Harris' position before election day."

Westcott also scored the most memorable jab during the all-candidates session:

"The only reason he's running this time is because the party couldn't come up with another candidate, so his arm was twisted by Jack Layton and Danny Williams [Harris' former law partner] so what I'd like to know is, when he goes to Ottawa and both of them tell him to jump, which one is he going to listen to?"

They may well have whacked at jack because he's the front runner.  Then again, when you claim credit for things you demonstrably didn't do, you pretty much invite a pile on.

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The dark side of ABC

In "Enough traitor talk", Geoff Meeker at the Telegram takes issue with the extreme language being used by the ABC campaign in some instances:

Politics in Newfoundland and Labrador are heated and vitriolic, but this is something different. Something despicable. It turns my stomach.

One group, comfortably ensconced within the majority, has taken to condemning those they oppose as ‘traitors’, a crime that was punishable by death up until 1961. It’s pretty much the nastiest thing you can say about someone.

How far are we from smashing the windows of these traitors, burning crosses on their lawns and cutting them down with machetes?

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Only Avalon up in the air

As of October 8, democraticSPACE is showing predicted winners in six of seven seats in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Only Avalon is left uncalled. The top picture shows the party that held the riding prior to the election call.  The bottom picture and the name show the candidate and party predicted to win.

NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR

AVALON

BONAVISTA-GANDER-GRAND FALLS


SCOTT SIMMS

HUMBER-ST. BARBE-BAIE VERTE


GERRY BYRNE

LABRADOR


TODD RUSSELL

RANDOM-BURIN-ST. GEORGE’S


JUDY FOOTE

ST. JOHN’S EAST


JACK HARRIS

ST. JOHN’S SOUTH-MOUNT PEARL


SIOBHAN COADY

The website uses an elaborate mathematical model to project election results based on a combination of available poll results and past voting patterns.  That's a short-hand version.  Check the democraticspace.com site for a more detaile description of their methodology.

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The politics of strange bedfellows, Merv and Craig version

Merv Wiseman, Conservative candidate in St. John's South-Mount Pearl.

Craig Westcott, Conservative candidate in St. John's East.

But not always such bosom buddies.

In April 2007, Merv Wiseman then president of the agriculture federation, found himself feeling nauseous at a Craig Westcott commentary on rural Newfoundland.

Wiseman accused Westcott of displaying the culture of defeat attitude toward rural Newfoundland that Stephen Harper displayed.

Ouchies.

Wiseman puts Westcott's comments down to an "urban" mind-set that doesn't understand the contribution made by the "rural."

Check out "The future of rural Newfoundland".  The ram audio file links still work.

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Geez, that's gotta hurt

The view of Iceland then, for some. [h/t to Daimnation!]

His outline of how Iceland went from poverty to prosperity in less than two generations is an inspiration to the ambitions of small nations. In Newfoundland, the "Iceland Model" is a Holy Grail for politicians but they have a mental block when it comes to the reality that Newfoundland does not have control over certain economic policy that Iceland, as sovereign state, has and can make "top-level" policy to direct their economy. Fisheries management is only one example.  While on the surface, Newfoundland and Iceland may appear to have a lot in common, in reality, they are two different planets. The nationalist minded in Newfoundland eye Iceland doe-eyed as the future Newfoundland never had.

Iceland now.

For the fans of prognostication, the Offal News view in 2007, and for those looking for the Bond-able treatment, you can check out:

• Iceland's miracle:  the other side (December 2006):

Well, one of the costs of Iceland's supposed economic miracle is a currency that is dropping against the Euro. As a result, the Icelandic central bank has raised interests rates to 14.25%. It's been about 15 years since we've seen those kinds of interest rates in Canada.

Investors are keeping a close eye on the Iceland situation since the whole economic tension is coming from a government deficit on current account that is running at 27% of gross domestic product in the third quarter.

To put that in context, that's the equivalent of the provincial government here running a deficit - in a three month period just ended - of around $1.35 billion. That's just in one quarter, and assuming the economic output in the economy right at the moment is about $5.0 billion per quarter.

• Beowulf it ain't (August 2006):

But anyway, if this little story is right Danny Williams is going to look at how Iceland generates energy since "if it can be done there, it can certainly be done in" Newfoundland and Labrador.

Minor problem.

Iceland happens to sit on some pretty special geological real estate such that they country has active hotsprings and a volcano that's been known to erupt every so often. 87% of the country's heating needs are supplied by geothermal energy. That's heat from the Earth to you and me.

So of course, not everything done there can be done here.

• All trout live in trees (June 2005):

As noted in previous posts on this subject, the syllogism Iceland = Independent = Successful Fishery//Newfoundland=Not Independent=Fisheries Disaster doesn't stand up to closer scrutiny.

The idea of an independent Newfoundland managing the fishery as Iceland rests on a series of unfounded assumptions.

The local nationalists pushed the Iceland thing as hard as they could but events of the last few days have demonstrated unmistakably that their arguments were built on nothing but air.

A bit like the cartoons where the guy winds up running off the end of a cliff, only to find himself a few hundred feet up in the air.

Then he looks down.

Yep.

That's gotta hurt.

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The little Cuba of the north

According to bloomberg.com, Moscow is offering the Icelanders A loan of four billion euros to help it get through the current crisis.

If Russia can support its stock market and preserve growth, the current financial crisis represents a chance to demonstrate ``influence in the world economy and the diminishing influence of the U.S,'' said Sergei Markov, an adviser to the Kremlin who is a lawmaker in the ruling United Russia party.

Both Putin, 56, and Medvedev, 43, have criticized the U.S. for spreading financial contagion around the world.

U.S. ``irresponsibility'' led to the global credit squeeze, which may reduce Russian growth to as little as 5.7 percent this year, according to the finance ministry, Putin told a cabinet meeting Oct. 1.

One former bank official is quoted as using the line that Iceland is becoming the little Cuba of the North.

Bit of a stretch, but still a cute line.

If things get tough will the locals here start recalling the pre-Confederation ties between Newfoundland and Tsarist and revolutionary Russia?

Maybe.

But don't mention Trotsky and the Cochrane Hotel.

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And on the up side...

St. John's East Liberal candidate Walter Noel's political experience shone through at the start of an all-candidates forum on the local CBC Morning Show this morning.

When asked to identify the most important issue for his riding, Noel said it was the economy.

Noel hit that one and then nailed the corollary, given that the Conservative candidate isn't a contender:  the NDP ain't the ones to trust with managing the nation's economic problems.

Given the shifting strategic landscape and given that Jack Layton has abandoned his campaign goal to form a government, it reminds people they should be thinking twice about a stampede toward the Orange in the East.

It might be too little way too late, but you gotta give credit where it's due.

New Democrat Jack Harris  - the front runner - said the big issue for him was affordable housing.  Good choice but hardly likely to be the top-of-mind issue for voters in the riding, including Jack's own supporters.

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Iceland banks have $250 million in NL fishery

Icelandic banks have invested at least $250 million in the Newfoundland and Labrador fishery.

Telegram editor Russell Wangersky pointed to that fact in his latest column:

That's the $250 million or so Williams was talking about last year, a number that has almost certainly grown considerably since then. Icelandic banks have traded on the fact that, coming from a fishing nation, they understand the needs of the fishery. And truth be told, they've been one of the few sources of available capital for fishing companies in this province, even before the credit crunch hit.

And now, those same banks are promising to get out of their overseas investments. That's a message that must be more than a little frightening for the industry in this province, with capital scarcer than ever.

If the Icelandic banks call those loans - as a ready source of foreign currency - some entity, public or private, will likely be called on to step in an assist the fishing companies.

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Portent?

British Petroleum is halting work on a Delaware liquid natural gas plant:

“We've been looking at the global market conditions surrounding LNG, and the timing for a terminal just isn't right, so we've put it on hold for at least two years,” BP spokesman Tom Mueller said Wednesday.

“We will hold on to the property and look at conditions down the road,” Mr. Mueller added, noting that the company “believes New Jersey will need LNG infrastructure in the future, and we will position ourselves to do that.”

BP's plans, initially announced in December, 2003, called for a 2,200-foot pier to be built off Logan Township. It was designed to handle enough liquefied natural gas, or LNG, to serve 5 million homes and meet rising demand. [Globe and Mail]

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The imaginary bubble

From RBC Economics' latest provincial forecast for Newfoundland and Labrador:

While domestic conditions are generally strong, growth in the economy is nonetheless expected to slow significantly relative to last year amid a leveling off in oil production. In 2007, the return to full operation of the Terra Nova offshore project and the completion of White Rose’s expansion have boosted crude oil
output by more than 20%. With no such increase this year, the contribution of the energy sector to provincial growth is likely to be flat or slightly negative.

Through the first six months of this year, crude oil production was down almost 9% year-over-year. All things considered, real growth in Newfoundland & Labrador’s real GDP is forecast to be negligible this year at 0.2% before picking up in 2009 to around 1.3% on the continued strength of the domestic economy.

Get that?

-  Oil production down by 9%  for the first half of 2008 compared to the same period in 2007.

-  Growth in real GDP at 0.2% in 2008 and only 1.2% in 2009.

Look at the whole report to get the full picture.

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Pattern Behaviour 2: Spot the Pitcher Plants

Provincial Conservatives love to astroturf. In fact they've had this latest astroturf run planned for some time.

They love to call radio programs and make comments in support of their leader, usually following talking points that are astonishingly similar.  It's supposed to appear like a giant groundswell of support for their leader's cause du jour;  some of it - like the insistence they aren't coached - gets kinda funny.

Within the past 24 to 48 hours, the number of Pitcher Plants has jumped dramatically. The ABC Astroturf is in full bloom.

You can tell them a mile away:

1. They make repeated reference to "Premier Williams", pledge their support for him and praise him in the stereotypical pitcher plant fashion.  Most people don't have a need to do that;  Provincial Conservatives evidently do.
2. They make repeated references to the need to "stand up for your province".  A recurring theme among Provincial Conservatives is that the province consists of one mass whose interests are identical and who must act in a corporate fashion under the leadership of a single individual in order to achieve victory over external forces.  That's the foundation of Provincial Conservative politics since at least 2003.
3. They've been making repeated attacks on Fabian Manning.  Again, that hasn't been a common feature of the call-in shows to date.  Tonight it's all Fabe, all the time.  Despite the efforts to claim otherwise - nothing could be further from the truth - there's been a great deal of Family Feud energy directed to defeating Manning.
• Dead give-away:  they all make reference to the same episode, namely Manning sitting next to Harper in the House.  They describe this episode suing similar terms and typically misrepresent what happened in the same way their Leader did originally. People who aren't Provincial Conservatives don't need elaborate rationales to vote against Conservatives.
• Second dead give-away:  they praise any politician who has sided with their beloved "Premier Williams", usually referring to the individual as having acted in the best interests of his or her constituents.  To provincial Conservatives, their leader's decisions and the interest of the entire province are synonymous. (See Indicator 2 above)
4. They take great care to distinguish between Conservatives and the Provincial Conservatives, which they insist on calling Progressive.  Only Provincial Conservatives need to make that distinction for some reason.  Liberals and New Democrats don't care.
5. They turn up online making comments from behind a pseudonym.  In classic Provincial Conservative fashion, everything is about their leader. Note that the two comments here are from individuals who have a well-established pattern of behaviour presenting exactly the same kinds of comments offered here.  They didn't comment on the original post at all, suggesting that they weren't yet mobilized to start astroturfing.

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Iceland sinks deeper into financial mess

1.  "Iceland teeters on brink of bankruptcy". (Forbes.com)

LONDON - Iceland is getting closer to becoming the first nation to go bankrupt as a result of the subprime mortgage crisis and resulting squeeze on lending. Late Wednesday afternoon in Europe, Fitch Ratings said it had cut Iceland's long-term sovereign currency issuer default ratings to "BBB-," from "A," putting them firmly in "junk" territory. Moody's also cut Iceland's sovereign rating to "A1," from "Aa1," and said its ratings were on review, according to TradeTheNews.com.

2.  "Iceland sinks further into crisis". (ABC7 Chicago)

Today, the government said it was abandoning a plan to nationalize the country's third-largest bank (Glitnir) and is instead putting it into receivership.

Further details at Marketwatch.

3.  The Icelandic meltdown jeopardises British citizens who have cash in a British subsidiary of Landesbanki.

More than 300,000 British customers had around £4 billion deposited in Icesave accounts, which until yesterday offered higher rates of interest than British banks.

The UK government last week issued a general guarantee that British account holders will be able to reclaim their money if their financial institution goes bankrupt - but only up to a maximum of £50,000 each.

4.  The Icelandic bank collapse will affect the fishery in Atlantic Canada. 

"The big impact that people probably are not aware of is that these Icelandic banks, Glitnir and Landesbanki, both those banks (finance) a lot of Atlantic Canadian seafood companies," said the chief executive officer of Black's Harbour-based Cooke Aquaculture Inc. on Tuesday.

"Glitnir has a very small piece of Cooke," he said. "These Icelandic banks they're banking a lot of firms - Clearwater Fine Foods, they're part of the syndication in Connors Brothers, they back the Barrett Group [sic.  Perhaps he meant the Barry Group] out of Newfoundland."

So much for the claims Newfoundland and Labrador is protected by a magic bubble.

5.  CBC Radio Noon (St. John's, ram audio).  Rob Greenwood of the Harris Centre at Memorial University discusses the Icelandic crisis in the context of local proponents of the Iceland model for Newfoundland and Labrador.

Rob gives it a nice try but it must be getting really hard to push the Icelandic model and fanciful notion of "subsidiarity" with any degree of seriousness.

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Pattern behaviour

Faced with the prospect he can't deliver his consistently stated goal of ensuring no Conservatives are elected in Newfoundland and Labrador, Danny Williams shifted the goals of his Family Feud and completely reinvented what it was all about.

He did it a few weeks ago.

He repeated the completely rejigged goal of his ABC campaign and CBC is reporting the shift.

No one should be surprised.

It's part of the pattern.

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The Can-Opener's surplus prediction

Memorial University economist Wade Locke:

"The price of oil has already averaged in excess of $110, $115 per barrel for the year so far, so even if the prices were to fall down to $10 per barrel, they would still meet their budget projections of $87 a barrel," Locke told CBC News on Monday.

"So the forecasts in the budget should still be fine. They should have a budget surplus even bigger than they what they had forecast."

Okay.

Let's see if that works out.

Given:

• The 2008 budget estimates predict oil royalties of $1.789 billion based on an assumed average price for oil of $87 per barrel.
• The 2008 budget estimates forecast a deficit on capital and current account of $414 million.
• The 2008 budget estimates forecast an additional borrowing requirement of $380 million for a combined cash requirement (borrowing) of $794 million.
• For the first six months of the fiscal year, Locke gives the average price for crude oil as $115 per barrel.
• The finance minister forecast a $544 million surplus in public statements and the budget speech, even though that figure does not appear anywhere in the budget estimates voted on by the House of Assembly.
• All other revenues and expenditures remain as projected in the estimates.
• Annual oil production is 111 million barrels.

Therefore:

• In order to attain a surplus of $544 million, provincial oil royalties would have to exceed the forecast by approximately $1.338 billion ($794 million + $544 million);  in total that would be oil royalties at $3.127 billion.
• If oil averages $115 per barrel for the entire fiscal year, the projected royalty would be $2.361525 billion.
• If oil averages $115 for half the fiscal year and $87 for the remaining six months, the total provincial royalty would be $2.05535 billion.
• Budget surplus (deficit) @ $115 for 12 months = ($766 million)
• Budget surplus (deficit) @ $115 or $87 over 12 = ($1.072 billion)

No matter how you slice it, that doesn't look like a surplus.

No matter how you slice it, that doesn't look like a larger surplus than the one supposedly forecast in the budget.

Anyone who wants to explain Locke's figuring or where the Bondable version is off is welcome to do so.  Either add your comment to his post or send it by e-mail and we'll do it for you.

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Taylor's self-made hard spot

Provincial acting fisheries minister Trevor Taylor is in a hard spot.

You can tell he's in a hard spot because in order to criticize a recent fish quota trade deal, Taylor wound up resorting to an argument favoured by people Taylor usually criticizes harshly,  people like Gus Etchegary and Sue The Vanished Hydroqueen:

Taylor said the deal hearkens back to prior trade agreements, in which Canada traded its fisheries stocks for economic advantages.

Yes, it's a sign of complete bankruptcy when your argument is merely to repeat the same discredited fables as Gus, Sue and others.

Taylor called the deal tragic.

It's hard to see how it is tragic.

In exchange for allowing Americans to fish a portion of the Canadian quota for yellowtail flounder outside 200 miles, a portion not usually caught anyway, Canada gains.  It gains because:

-  the deal secures American support particularly for other conservation measures;

-  the deal includes Canadian access to over 600 tons of deep water shrimp which will be fished by a Newfoundland and Labrador company (and processed in already under-utilized plants);  and,

-  the deal includes an increased by-catch for American plaice which will allow the Newfoundland and Labrador harvesters to fish the yellow-tail flounder quota more efficiently and to a greater extent.

Sadly, the fishery is as misunderstood as the offshore oil and gas industry.  The result is that completely bogus arguments like the ones offered by Etchegary and Taylor are accepted as fact.

What is tragic is that Taylor is considering increasing plant capacity in a province in which there is way more capacity than existing quotas. Fish plant workers are making as little as $8,000 in some cases from their labour and must scramble to find other work in order to qualify for a pittance in employment insurance on top of that. The existing plants are in many respects  nothing more than stamp factories and Taylor is seriously considering making a bad situation demonstrably worse.

Taylor and the cabinet to which he belongs know what needs to be done.  They are - in effect - abrogating their responsibility to reorganize the fishery in a way that corrects the human tragedy and the economic tragedy in the province's fishery. Taylor and his colleagues are doing nothing more than following the less than sterling example of some recent fisheries ministers, like John Efford, who during his tenure increased the number of plant licenses and contributed to creating the current mess.

Such is the scope of the tragedy in the fishery.

Such is the scope of the tragedy that Taylor, who started his political career showing some promise, has become just another politician mucking about in the fishing industry for political purposes. 

A shuffling of the province's cabinet will evidently produce no positive change in the province's fishing industry.

That's another sign of the tragedy.

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Marg, Princess Warrior tackles Harper again

From nlpress.ca.

CTV caves in face of ABC campaign

From Danny Williams comments on a voice of the cabinet minister call-in show on Sunday evening:

A couple of weeks ago when they were out in Harbour Grace, or Grace Harbour, as the Prime Minister referred the community to, you know, there was something came out of that whereby spokespeople for the Conservatives and for Mr. Manning came out and said that businesses were being threatened, that contracts were being threatened, that if people didn't vote ABC that our government was going to do something to them. CTV reported that and CTV actually had to retract that publicly on their network when it was found that those claims were unsubstantiated.

The original story is linked from this Bond Papers post: "Family Feud?  Try blood feud."

Let's see if CTV and Bob Fife want to comment on this.

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The return of The Can-Opener

Memorial University economist Wade Locke is back in the news and, not surprisingly he is saying things the provincial government will love.

Like his view of oil prices and the chances for a budget surplus bigger than the one forecast:

"The price of oil has already averaged in excess of $110, $115 per barrel for the year so far, so even if the prices were to fall down to $10 per barrel, they would still meet their budget projections of $87 a barrel," Locke told CBC News on Monday.

"So the forecasts in the budget should still be fine. They should have a budget surplus even bigger than they what they had forecast."

Perhaps Wade would like to actually, you know, read the budget estimates and see what the budget says about oil averaging 87 bucks a barrel and surpluses.

Wade also believes that the world has changed fundamentally - high demand and no new supply - such that oil will sell above US$90 a barrel way out into the future.  In the short-term, - up to two years, according to Locke - they might dip but the long-term price will be high, higher and highest. Asked if he thought oil prices would go to  ten bucks a barrel, Locke gave an emphatic "no". 

Like we haven't heard that one being forecast before, based on the change in market fundamentals yada yada yada. There's likely tape somewhere of an economist telling us that there was absolutely no way oil would fall to $10 a barrel again;  that would be right before it went to 12 and then eight bucks.

Uh huh.

Even the Lower Churchill will go ahead, completely unscathed by the tightening of world capital markets. No problems there at all.  The future is bright, as Locke says.

Maybe someone should fire off a proposal to Trevor for some government cash to build a shades factory.  Not Raybans or anything pedestrian but some unique NewfoundlandLabrador brand of sunglasses to keep the unique sun out of our unique as we go around under this amazing bubble of economic protection that evidently surrounds us. 

Other places are falling victim to the global crisis but not here.

Economics is truly a dismal science. Aside from stating the obvious - that things will be unsettled in the next year or two - the rest of what Locke said was ultimately about as useful as something we'd get from Aline Chretien's confidant and her psychic alliance. No shame in that:  none of us can predict the future with any accuracy.  When we do get close it is often due more to blind luck than any insight or foresight.

Maybe to give a sense of Locke's analysis in the past though, perhaps we'll go back to his view of the Atlantic Accord when Danny was in full fight and Wade's view after the deal was inked.

Wee bit different.

But hey, at least we now know who Danny Williams turns to for economic advice and has been probably turning to for advice for some time.

Turns out it wasn't Sarah Palin after all.

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Slim Whitman's Greatest Hits

Danny Williams, from a call to voice of the cabinet minister's Sunday night call-in show:

And, you know, there are issues that are very, very important to Newfoundlanders and Labradorians and we look at the economy and we look at where the American economy is going and Minister Flaherty was on last week and the Prime Minister is out saying oh no, we don't have to worry in Canada, everything is fabulous, everything is wonderful. But, you know, we have to realize that, you know, we do have a direct link to that American economy and if that tanks at some point in time, then, you know, we are vulnerable.

Followed immediately by:

Now that's not to say that, you know, there's going to be gloom and doom in Canada because Canada's fundamental are sound and I firmly believe that.

Well, there's a relief.

You know.

But it gets better.

You know.

Apparently, the province is somehow shielded from the goings-on in the world economy, even if, you know, we do have that direct link he mentioned and if that link "tanks" we would, you know,  be vulnerable:

And on the other side of it, you know, from our own perspective, you know, our economy is strong, we're in a better position than we've ever been, we're also in a very good position now with the, you know, the international financial crisis that's underway. We now, for the first time in our lives, are in a bit of a financial bubble and that's a wonderful thing. We have that protection and the people of this province got the support of the provincial government.

The bubble seems to be some kind of magical Star Trek kinda thing:

But I do think that Newfoundland and Labrador is in a very, very good position. Hopefully our surpluses will continue, hopefully they'll get even larger, it will enable us to do the things that we've been doing. I mean this, for us this hasn't happened overnight. We've been preparing for this.

Ahhh.

We got surpluses and ones that Williams hopes will get bigger.

You know.

Unless that link thing "tanks".

That would be the completely imaginary surpluses, though.

You know.

Which would make the protective bubble surrounding the provincial economy more like The Bubble in St. John's harbour.

Well, not exactly, because apparently some things have been going on behind the doors of Confederation Building people would not be aware of.

Like, you know, building a war chest whatever that means:

You know, we've built a war chest and, as well, we've tried to move our debt down to get us in a good position so that if ever there was a very, very, very serious situation we'd have to take that debt back up again, but we'd have the ability to do it. But, you know, we've been really, very fiscally prudent and fiscally responsible.

Ahhh, again.

You know.

So there's great comfort for all of us because even though we are vulnerable, there is a bubble of some kind, consisting of imaginary surpluses and then there's the debt which has been moving down due to the really very fiscally prudent responsibleness so that - only if there was a very, very, very serious situation  - we could drive the debt up again.

No word on what would happen if things only got very, very serious.

Or if that link thing tanking would be merely very serious, or if it would get enough veries to qualify for the debt growth bubble protection thing and then something else besides.

But anyway, we are vulnerable and then again, we aren't.

You know.

The debt has been going down.

Just like the chart at right shows.

If you hold it upside down, that is.

And it's not like we'd be planning on borrowing any more money in the meantime.

Like say for a major oil project.

Or a major hydroelectric project which the Premier said at the start of his call he had been busy working on.

A nine billion dollar project, which, if you notice, is actually more than the entire public debt load is currently.

Loyal Bond Papers readers will recall the idea of doubling the public debt being raised in January 2006.  That would be, if you recall, long before there was any talk of a major economic downturn. When the downturn came a little closer to reality, the Premier was  willing to acknowledge it would affect the Lower Churchill.

But then the Premier finished on a high note:

So, you know, Newfoundland and Labrador is very much on the move and so, you know, I'm pleased with the position we're in and I do think we're in a favoured position, to be quite honest with you.

To be quite honest, it is completely confusing to know that the province is vulnerable - as the Premier started out saying - and then to have him conclude by saying that this is a favoured position.

Up is down.  Vulnerable is favourable. Deficits are surpluses.

It would be funny, if it wasn't all so very serious.

You know.

-srbp-

Trevor's duck and cover explained

Trevor Taylor, part-time substitute fisheries minister in the Provincial Conservative government has been busily ducking a looming issue in the fisheries world.  In a system already grossly overstocked with processing capacity, Taylor's department has a recommendation under consideration to add a few more licenses.

The local CBC fisheries broadcast has been trying desperately to get Taylor on the air.

He's been unavailable.

Apparently, Trevor's been too busy campaigning against Fabian Manning, not in his free time or anything mind you but during the day time  - normal government working hours - when one might expect he could have found a few hours to devote to his custodial responsibilities in the fish department.

Seems Trevor has been joined on the hustings by attorney general Jerome Kennedy and intergovernmental affairs genius Tom Hedderson. 

You will recall Hedderson as the guy writing letters to Ottawa last June lobbying on a decision that was made...18 months earlier.

Trevor sees no problem with this carrying on partisan family fights during daylight hours.

Trevor also decided on Monday to issue a news release criticizing the federal government for a deal giving 1500 tonnes of yellowtail flounder from Canada's NAFO allocation to the Americans.

But sure Trevor and the boys are supporting the ABC campaign, you say.

Yes, sez your humble e-scribbler, but don't forget the real motivation for all these cabinet ministers to join in the Family Feud.

There's a big cabinet shuffle coming very shortly.  Being seen out there hammering away at The Boss' favourite cause is much better for the old career path than spending time doing other things, like say the job you get paid to do.

Oh.  That's right. 

Trevor did find time in his hectic hectoring schedule to call the Fisheries Broadcast and do an interview.

But that was after one of his predecessors outed him on the Family Feud thing.

-srbp-

Cats, frogs and something really lost in translation

Cute piece about Stephen Harper in Yarmouth Nova Scotia, a tickle in his throat and the side story about the different idiomatic expressions in English and French for the condition.  Frog in the throat in English;  cat in the throat in French.  A cough, a chuckle and a gaggle of confuddled Francophone reporters who missed the almost gaffe

All that from an English language Canadian Press story carried by the Star online.

Mais, the readers of copy from La Presse Canadienne got an autre histoire.

Seems Harper was coughing.

He was also pretty clear that while he thought Acadians were lovely people he had no intention of introducing a motion in the Commons recognizing the Acadians as comprising a nation within Canada:

"Je n'ai pas l'intention de faire une motion à la Chambre des communes", a déclaré, hier, le chef Stephen Harper, lors d'un point de presse à Yarmouth, en Nouvelle-Écosse.

Harper couldn't have had a cat in his throat.  The feline was too busy being set among the pigeons.

-srbp-