Iceland eyes IMF

As they prepared to head to Moscow to negotiation a four billion euro bailout, Icelandic officials gave signs on Sunday the country was looking at the International Monetary Fund as a potential source of help during the country's economic collapse. [Reuters-Iceland]

"My conclusion is that if we appeal to the IMF, other central banks and other nations would follow that track," Industry Minister Ossur Skarphedinsson told the Morgunbladid newspaper in a report published on its website on Sunday.

In related news, the Norwegian bank regulator moved on Sunday to take control of the Iceland bank Kaupthing's Norwegian arm. [Reuters - Norway]

-srbp-

Vote Dipper to stop the seal hunt

Why else would IFAW care about an election race in Canada?

 

-srbp-

Fishing for votes

Outgoing Connie fish minister Loyola Hearn is extending the damn fool fishery - an annual cod plunder disguised as tradition - just in time to try and snag a few more votes.

The only way for cod stocks to recover to commercial level is to keep these kinds of people off the water.

-srbp-

Harper hides

Okay, so the guy who will only speak to reporters in highly controlled conditions, is now canceling all media availabilities for the remainder of the campaign.

And this surprises who, exactly?

Meanwhile, in other news, reporters are burning their notebooks and any electronic record of their gushing over Harper's sudden appearance at breakfast early in the campaign. [Link to a National Self-Lampoon version.  Yes, it's the Lampoon but for some reason other media outlets fell for the bullshit even though they are genetically predisposed to ingest pre-digest pap and regurgitate it on command.]

Like that wasn't contrived either.

Sheesh.

During this campaign we have seen once again the ability of news media types to completely ignore the fact they are being manipulated despite ample evidence of the intention to manipulate.

Does anyone  - you'd have to be old enough - recall the whole roll of the dice piece from the Globe right before the whole Meech end game?  Same idea.

-srbp-

"Confederation is in danger": Cleary

Ryan Cleary, New Democratic Party, St. John's South-Mount Pearl, on his election blog:

“Confederation is in danger,” I said.

“Jack Layton, Jack Harris and myself can bring it back to safe ground.”

Ryan Cleary, editor of The Independent, May 2008:

I don’t want to seem ungrateful, but now that we’re rolling in the cash it may be time to consider breaking away from the country of Canada. If we’re teetering on the edge of economic independence anyway, why not go all the way and raise the Pink, White and Green outside Confederation Building?

Ummmm.

Which one are we supposed to believe is how Ryan really feels?

-srbp-

"Worse than first thought": Aussie foreign minister

From The Australian:

THE government's cabinet budget committee will meet later today to take any action deemed necessary from key meetings of the International Monetary Fund and Group of 20 finance ministers in New York today.

Foreign Minister Stephen Smith said there was a growing realisation that the international financial crisis was worse than originally thought.

-srbp-

CTV/ATV hatchet job

ATV and CTV are getting ripped for their hatchet job of Stephane Dion, and rightly so.

Geoff Meeker's media blog at the Telegram is a case in point.

May we expect a retraction any time soon from ATV and CTV?

Don't bet on it.

CTV's Craig Oliver is not only unfazed by the whole business, he trumpets it as a supposed example of how the country supposedly won't tolerate a leader who is not comfortable in both official languages.

The veteran journalists who commented at Geoff's post would disagree with Oliver's contention that the question would be "indelibly clear" "[t]o anyone with any comfort zone in English...".

The one point from Oliver's excuse pile that most would agree with is that the episode damaged Dion, even if only for a short while.

The next question top raise is why the whole episode occurred in the first place.  A network that features a dubious piece of analysis by Conrad Winn on its website in to different areas - the election and "world" space - should not be surprised if people started questioning its partisan affiliation. 

 

-srbp-

Dear Conrad...

Get a grip.

Obama was leading McCain before the meltdown.

McCain's miserable performance in the wake of the economic crisis has only worsened his position.

Some recent polls have Obama as much as 11 points in front of McCain nationally. Even Fox News analysts would have to reach to claim Obama is "fighting" to hold on to a "slim" lead.

That's nothing to shake a stick at.

It starts to get worse for McCain when one notices the shifts occurring in key demographic segments to Obama and away from McCain/Palin.

As for the Bill Ayers thing, the most spectacular point is that the McCain/Palin attack on that point has had almost no discernable impact on the latest Obama surge.

Perhaps your analysis is -  in a word -  simplistic.

Ditto the Canadian stuff.

In the past week or so we have seen the Conservative support in Quebec tumble as a direct response to Conservative messaging gaffes. No minor issues;  major gaffes.  The Conservatives who were poised to increase the Quebec riding count will now struggle to hold on to what they have.  Some numbers suggest their riding count will be halved.

Numbers have shifted dramatically in key Ontario ridings and even in British Columbia there has been a noticeable shift in voter intentions.

This hardly favours the Conservatives "one way or the other".

Far from being a case where voter intentions were solidly formed long ago in an election that may see "a "watershed" that changes fundamental voting patterns and party dominance for years to come", the current Canadian federal election is an example of how even front-runners can prove unpalatable to the majority of electors based on elector experienced with them.

Evidently there's something sitting close to Conrad's compass that is skewing his perspective.

-srbp-

Crude futures settle below US$78

Bloomberg.com is reporting that West Texas Intermediate for November delivery finished trading at the New York Mercantile Exchange at US$77.70 a barrel, the lowest price for front-month crude futures since last year.

Brent crude - closest in price to Grand Banks light, sweet - closed the day at US$74.09, a drop of almost eight and a half dollars from the day before. That puts crude oil $13 below the average price assumed by the provincial government at budget time last April.

At close of trading on Friday, crude futures up to April were below US$80 a barrel.

In other energy news, Harvest Energy - owners of the Come by Chance refinery - have delayed a planned $2.0 billion expansion of the 115K barrel per day refinery until 2010. Current economic turmoil is also forcing other energy companies to rethink plans in western Canada.

-srbp-

Jack channels Al Gore, in a bad way

New Democrat candidate Jack Harris seemed to be channeling Al Gore at the all candidates debate on CBC Radio Thursday.

No, not Enviro-Champ Al Gore, but the "I invented the Internet" version.

Morning Show host Jeff Gilhooley asked Harris what he would be able to accomplish for the riding if he were elected as an opposition bencher.

Harris replied he could do lots.

Like say when he was here in Newfoundland and Labrador, on the opposition benches:

"We've got school bussing in St. John's, which we didn't have, thanks to me."

Huh?

Thanks to Jack?

Jack may have advocated for school bussing but the service was extended to include metropolitan St. John's by Lloyd Matthews, the Liberal cabinet minister filling in for Judy Foote who was on sick leave at the time.

The candidates took turns whacking Jack largely because the polls have him way out in front of the rest.  They brought up all manner of points.  The video  - available at cbc.ca/nl/features/debate - makes for some entertaining viewing, even if the audio sucks.

Conservative Craig Westcott got in some of the sharpest licks, including one over Jack and what he plans to do with his provincial pension if he is elected to Ottawa. He kept it up on Friday with a statement aimed squarely at the issue of potential double-dipping by the former member of the provincial legislature:

"Yesterday during our all-candidate debate I posed a very simple question to NDP candidate Jack Harris: if he is elected to serve in Ottawa, will he follow in Norm Doyle's footsteps and donate his provincial pension to charity?

"Mr. Harris avoided answering this question during our debate. So I pose the question again: what will Jack do?"

"I'm not necessarily saying it's wrong to do it, but voters in St. John's East should know Jack Harris' position before election day."

Westcott also scored the most memorable jab during the all-candidates session:

"The only reason he's running this time is because the party couldn't come up with another candidate, so his arm was twisted by Jack Layton and Danny Williams [Harris' former law partner] so what I'd like to know is, when he goes to Ottawa and both of them tell him to jump, which one is he going to listen to?"

They may well have whacked at jack because he's the front runner.  Then again, when you claim credit for things you demonstrably didn't do, you pretty much invite a pile on.

-srbp-

The dark side of ABC

In "Enough traitor talk", Geoff Meeker at the Telegram takes issue with the extreme language being used by the ABC campaign in some instances:

Politics in Newfoundland and Labrador are heated and vitriolic, but this is something different. Something despicable. It turns my stomach.

One group, comfortably ensconced within the majority, has taken to condemning those they oppose as ‘traitors’, a crime that was punishable by death up until 1961. It’s pretty much the nastiest thing you can say about someone.

How far are we from smashing the windows of these traitors, burning crosses on their lawns and cutting them down with machetes?

-srbp-

Only Avalon up in the air

As of October 8, democraticSPACE is showing predicted winners in six of seven seats in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Only Avalon is left uncalled. The top picture shows the party that held the riding prior to the election call.  The bottom picture and the name show the candidate and party predicted to win.

NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR

AVALON

BONAVISTA-GANDER-GRAND FALLS


SCOTT SIMMS

HUMBER-ST. BARBE-BAIE VERTE


GERRY BYRNE

LABRADOR


TODD RUSSELL

RANDOM-BURIN-ST. GEORGE’S


JUDY FOOTE

ST. JOHN’S EAST


JACK HARRIS

ST. JOHN’S SOUTH-MOUNT PEARL


SIOBHAN COADY

The website uses an elaborate mathematical model to project election results based on a combination of available poll results and past voting patterns.  That's a short-hand version.  Check the democraticspace.com site for a more detaile description of their methodology.

-srbp-

The politics of strange bedfellows, Merv and Craig version

Merv Wiseman, Conservative candidate in St. John's South-Mount Pearl.

Craig Westcott, Conservative candidate in St. John's East.

But not always such bosom buddies.

In April 2007, Merv Wiseman then president of the agriculture federation, found himself feeling nauseous at a Craig Westcott commentary on rural Newfoundland.

Wiseman accused Westcott of displaying the culture of defeat attitude toward rural Newfoundland that Stephen Harper displayed.

Ouchies.

Wiseman puts Westcott's comments down to an "urban" mind-set that doesn't understand the contribution made by the "rural."

Check out "The future of rural Newfoundland".  The ram audio file links still work.

-srbp-

Geez, that's gotta hurt

The view of Iceland then, for some. [h/t to Daimnation!]

His outline of how Iceland went from poverty to prosperity in less than two generations is an inspiration to the ambitions of small nations. In Newfoundland, the "Iceland Model" is a Holy Grail for politicians but they have a mental block when it comes to the reality that Newfoundland does not have control over certain economic policy that Iceland, as sovereign state, has and can make "top-level" policy to direct their economy. Fisheries management is only one example.  While on the surface, Newfoundland and Iceland may appear to have a lot in common, in reality, they are two different planets. The nationalist minded in Newfoundland eye Iceland doe-eyed as the future Newfoundland never had.

Iceland now.

For the fans of prognostication, the Offal News view in 2007, and for those looking for the Bond-able treatment, you can check out:

• Iceland's miracle:  the other side (December 2006):

Well, one of the costs of Iceland's supposed economic miracle is a currency that is dropping against the Euro. As a result, the Icelandic central bank has raised interests rates to 14.25%. It's been about 15 years since we've seen those kinds of interest rates in Canada.

Investors are keeping a close eye on the Iceland situation since the whole economic tension is coming from a government deficit on current account that is running at 27% of gross domestic product in the third quarter.

To put that in context, that's the equivalent of the provincial government here running a deficit - in a three month period just ended - of around $1.35 billion. That's just in one quarter, and assuming the economic output in the economy right at the moment is about $5.0 billion per quarter.

• Beowulf it ain't (August 2006):

But anyway, if this little story is right Danny Williams is going to look at how Iceland generates energy since "if it can be done there, it can certainly be done in" Newfoundland and Labrador.

Minor problem.

Iceland happens to sit on some pretty special geological real estate such that they country has active hotsprings and a volcano that's been known to erupt every so often. 87% of the country's heating needs are supplied by geothermal energy. That's heat from the Earth to you and me.

So of course, not everything done there can be done here.

• All trout live in trees (June 2005):

As noted in previous posts on this subject, the syllogism Iceland = Independent = Successful Fishery//Newfoundland=Not Independent=Fisheries Disaster doesn't stand up to closer scrutiny.

The idea of an independent Newfoundland managing the fishery as Iceland rests on a series of unfounded assumptions.

The local nationalists pushed the Iceland thing as hard as they could but events of the last few days have demonstrated unmistakably that their arguments were built on nothing but air.

A bit like the cartoons where the guy winds up running off the end of a cliff, only to find himself a few hundred feet up in the air.

Then he looks down.

Yep.

That's gotta hurt.

-srbp-

The little Cuba of the north

According to bloomberg.com, Moscow is offering the Icelanders A loan of four billion euros to help it get through the current crisis.

If Russia can support its stock market and preserve growth, the current financial crisis represents a chance to demonstrate ``influence in the world economy and the diminishing influence of the U.S,'' said Sergei Markov, an adviser to the Kremlin who is a lawmaker in the ruling United Russia party.

Both Putin, 56, and Medvedev, 43, have criticized the U.S. for spreading financial contagion around the world.

U.S. ``irresponsibility'' led to the global credit squeeze, which may reduce Russian growth to as little as 5.7 percent this year, according to the finance ministry, Putin told a cabinet meeting Oct. 1.

One former bank official is quoted as using the line that Iceland is becoming the little Cuba of the North.

Bit of a stretch, but still a cute line.

If things get tough will the locals here start recalling the pre-Confederation ties between Newfoundland and Tsarist and revolutionary Russia?

Maybe.

But don't mention Trotsky and the Cochrane Hotel.

-srbp-

And on the up side...

St. John's East Liberal candidate Walter Noel's political experience shone through at the start of an all-candidates forum on the local CBC Morning Show this morning.

When asked to identify the most important issue for his riding, Noel said it was the economy.

Noel hit that one and then nailed the corollary, given that the Conservative candidate isn't a contender:  the NDP ain't the ones to trust with managing the nation's economic problems.

Given the shifting strategic landscape and given that Jack Layton has abandoned his campaign goal to form a government, it reminds people they should be thinking twice about a stampede toward the Orange in the East.

It might be too little way too late, but you gotta give credit where it's due.

New Democrat Jack Harris  - the front runner - said the big issue for him was affordable housing.  Good choice but hardly likely to be the top-of-mind issue for voters in the riding, including Jack's own supporters.

-srbp-

Iceland banks have $250 million in NL fishery

Icelandic banks have invested at least $250 million in the Newfoundland and Labrador fishery.

Telegram editor Russell Wangersky pointed to that fact in his latest column:

That's the $250 million or so Williams was talking about last year, a number that has almost certainly grown considerably since then. Icelandic banks have traded on the fact that, coming from a fishing nation, they understand the needs of the fishery. And truth be told, they've been one of the few sources of available capital for fishing companies in this province, even before the credit crunch hit.

And now, those same banks are promising to get out of their overseas investments. That's a message that must be more than a little frightening for the industry in this province, with capital scarcer than ever.

If the Icelandic banks call those loans - as a ready source of foreign currency - some entity, public or private, will likely be called on to step in an assist the fishing companies.

-srbp-

Portent?

British Petroleum is halting work on a Delaware liquid natural gas plant:

“We've been looking at the global market conditions surrounding LNG, and the timing for a terminal just isn't right, so we've put it on hold for at least two years,” BP spokesman Tom Mueller said Wednesday.

“We will hold on to the property and look at conditions down the road,” Mr. Mueller added, noting that the company “believes New Jersey will need LNG infrastructure in the future, and we will position ourselves to do that.”

BP's plans, initially announced in December, 2003, called for a 2,200-foot pier to be built off Logan Township. It was designed to handle enough liquefied natural gas, or LNG, to serve 5 million homes and meet rising demand. [Globe and Mail]

-srbp-

The imaginary bubble

From RBC Economics' latest provincial forecast for Newfoundland and Labrador:

While domestic conditions are generally strong, growth in the economy is nonetheless expected to slow significantly relative to last year amid a leveling off in oil production. In 2007, the return to full operation of the Terra Nova offshore project and the completion of White Rose’s expansion have boosted crude oil
output by more than 20%. With no such increase this year, the contribution of the energy sector to provincial growth is likely to be flat or slightly negative.

Through the first six months of this year, crude oil production was down almost 9% year-over-year. All things considered, real growth in Newfoundland & Labrador’s real GDP is forecast to be negligible this year at 0.2% before picking up in 2009 to around 1.3% on the continued strength of the domestic economy.

Get that?

-  Oil production down by 9%  for the first half of 2008 compared to the same period in 2007.

-  Growth in real GDP at 0.2% in 2008 and only 1.2% in 2009.

Look at the whole report to get the full picture.

-srbp-

Pattern Behaviour 2: Spot the Pitcher Plants

Provincial Conservatives love to astroturf. In fact they've had this latest astroturf run planned for some time.

They love to call radio programs and make comments in support of their leader, usually following talking points that are astonishingly similar.  It's supposed to appear like a giant groundswell of support for their leader's cause du jour;  some of it - like the insistence they aren't coached - gets kinda funny.

Within the past 24 to 48 hours, the number of Pitcher Plants has jumped dramatically. The ABC Astroturf is in full bloom.

You can tell them a mile away:

1. They make repeated reference to "Premier Williams", pledge their support for him and praise him in the stereotypical pitcher plant fashion.  Most people don't have a need to do that;  Provincial Conservatives evidently do.
2. They make repeated references to the need to "stand up for your province".  A recurring theme among Provincial Conservatives is that the province consists of one mass whose interests are identical and who must act in a corporate fashion under the leadership of a single individual in order to achieve victory over external forces.  That's the foundation of Provincial Conservative politics since at least 2003.
3. They've been making repeated attacks on Fabian Manning.  Again, that hasn't been a common feature of the call-in shows to date.  Tonight it's all Fabe, all the time.  Despite the efforts to claim otherwise - nothing could be further from the truth - there's been a great deal of Family Feud energy directed to defeating Manning.
• Dead give-away:  they all make reference to the same episode, namely Manning sitting next to Harper in the House.  They describe this episode suing similar terms and typically misrepresent what happened in the same way their Leader did originally. People who aren't Provincial Conservatives don't need elaborate rationales to vote against Conservatives.
• Second dead give-away:  they praise any politician who has sided with their beloved "Premier Williams", usually referring to the individual as having acted in the best interests of his or her constituents.  To provincial Conservatives, their leader's decisions and the interest of the entire province are synonymous. (See Indicator 2 above)
4. They take great care to distinguish between Conservatives and the Provincial Conservatives, which they insist on calling Progressive.  Only Provincial Conservatives need to make that distinction for some reason.  Liberals and New Democrats don't care.
5. They turn up online making comments from behind a pseudonym.  In classic Provincial Conservative fashion, everything is about their leader. Note that the two comments here are from individuals who have a well-established pattern of behaviour presenting exactly the same kinds of comments offered here.  They didn't comment on the original post at all, suggesting that they weren't yet mobilized to start astroturfing.

-srbp-