Jerome and his Amazing Technicolour Dream World

For the first time in four years, provincial government oil price projections aren’t lowballed. 

They did manage to lowball production levels but not by much.

There’s no secret stash of cash – like last year’s Equalization for the “have” province – that can emerge to make all the boo-boos go away.  This year is the current administration’s real budget.

And to make it worse, you have to wonder about their math skills.

Oil at US$70 a barrel, and with the Canadian dollar where it is would generate another $600 million in oil revenue above current estimates.

Just to put it in context, oil has spent the past three months at around US$45. The deficit is $750 on an accrual basis, $1.3 billion on a cash basis.

Jerome says that $600 million more would produce a surplus.

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Confederation 60: thunder

The accomplished fact of union shook the Newfoundland firmament like a clap of thunder.  From the very first morning that Newfoundlanders became Canadians it could be predicted with increasing certainty that the political weather of the new province was in for a seismic change and that government – the decisive barometer – would now, under the new dispensation, have to be reckoned with in matters great and small, filling more and more of the horizon of everyone, likewise great and small.

Herbert Pottle, Dawn without light, (St. John’s: Breakwater, 1979) p. 13

Whether or not government filled the political horizon as Herb Pottle predicted, Confederation did shake the people and society of Newfoundland and Labrador. 

The reverberations are still being felt.

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March madness

freenewfoundlandlabrador promoting the seal hunt (along with a raft of tired myths, fantasies and fables).

freenewfoundlandANDlabrador not.

Ok. 

So there really isn’t anything there at Free Newfoundland and Labrador but it’s a space occupied by Rebecca Aldworth, anti-seal hunt activist.

The word “and’ apparently makes all the difference.  Wonder if Myles and the anony-boys will be waging a jihad on Becca to try and get their name?

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But didn’t he approve the budget decisions in cabinet?

Some things make you wonder if cabinet actually functions like cabinet is supposed to function.

Former finance minister – and current justice minister – Tom Marshall is pleased that the government he is part of is putting cash into his district.

Either he is playing a huge joke on his constituents or he genuinely had no idea what was in the budget until he heard the speech or voice of the cabinet minister shagged up yet another story.

Either way it isn’t good.

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Red flags in front of the bull

The Telegram Saturday edition with huge attention paid to the 60th anniversary of Confederation.

1.  Before and after, the front pager which, in the online version includes links to George Baker’s 1970s era vinyl of some bits of the National Convention debates.  Not quite Jim Kirk does Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds but still worth the listen.

2.  A couple of retired reporters talk about covering the National Convention.

3.  A series of columns:

• Brian Jones – “Looking forward to 60 more years”
• Russell Wangersky - “Who put the con in Confederation?”  Incidentally, how come the awesomely amazing “balance sheet’ on Confederation the Spindy pumped out in 2004 disappeared from the now-twice-defunct newspaper’s website a long time ago?
• Pam Frampton  - “Life in Canada: a work in progress”
• Lana Payne - “Staying true to ourselves”

The editorial is worth checking out as well, not for the editorial itself but for the series of pseudonymous comments from someone or several people all of which repeat the same myths Wangersky mentions in his column.  perhaps some people hadn’t read that far when they made comments.

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Cougar S-92 timeline: TSB

The Transportation Safety Board released a time line for Cougar’s CHI91, the Sikorsky S-92 that crashed two weeks ago. Compare it to one published online at the time of the incident.  The TSB timeline is given in ZULU while the flightaware.com tracklog is converted from ZULU to Eastern Daylight.  Local time for the incident is ZULU – 3.5.

One of the questions the timeline raises is the search and rescue helicopter response time.  Not the Cormorant’s from 103 Squadron in Gander, mind you but Cougar’s own SAR helo.

If we take CHI91’s MAYDAY as minute zero, the figures get interesting.

Cougar should have an operations base monitoring the flight and its radio communications.  There would likely also be a  channel available so that the pilots can speak directly to the company’s maintenance and senior pilot team. 

With that said, Cougar Base at St. John’s airport should have been aware of the emergency no later than M+0, the same time that Gander received the MAYDAY.

The aircraft ditches at M+11.

At M+11 Cougar base advises that they will launch Cougar 61, the SAR helicopter.  The company had been operating as back-up to 103 and knew at that time that the air force SAR response was an additional one hour flying time away.

Cougar 61 does not launch until M+43.

Cougar 61 arrives on scene 18 minutes later. An aircraft 18 minutes flying time away takes 43 minutes to get airborne and that’s in a situation where the aircraft ought to have been ready as a matter of normal procedure and the despatchers knew from the outset that there was a potentially catastrophic problem with the aircraft.

We can say they knew it was potentially catastrophic because they know the importance of the main gearbox oil pressure to continued flight.  Heck, they would have known about the Broome incident that had led to the January Sikorsky directive.

This is one of many questions that the TSB investigation will undoubtedly address with typical thoroughness.

Nothing released by TSB on Thursday raised any issues with personal locator beacons or immersion suits.

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TSB concludes field phase, releases more crash details

Two weeks after the loss of CHI91 and 17 of the 18 souls on board, the Transportation Safety Board concluded the field phase of its investigation today by releasing some details of the crash.

Among the highlights:

• The cause of the gearbox oil pressure loss has been determined to be an in-flight  break of a stud in the gearbox filter assembly as previously released.
• The aircraft descended rapidly from 800 feet above sea level (ASL) in under a minute owing to an as-yet undetermined event. Estimated rate of descent is given as 1,000 feet per minute.
• The aircraft struck the water upright (belly first) in a tail down attitude.  This is different from earlier reports that the aircraft may have struck nose first.  That conclusion was apparently based on an initial assessment of the fuselage, as recovered.  The new interpretation is based on an examination of the entire wreck plus flight data. Some comment the day the main portion of the aircraft was brought ashore suggested that the tail rotor assembly (rotor plus vertical fin) had broken from the tail boom.  The boom was broken from the main fuselage.
• Two of the three flotation devices in the aircraft were recovered undeployed.  The only one to deploy appears to have been under the starboard pilot station (co-pilot position?).  The right forward floatation bag can be seen in a TSB photo of some of the wreckage released earlier this week.
• The timeline is very similar to the one previously posted here. The MAYDAY call came at approximately 5500 ASL which is at about 0817 hours Eastern Daylight Time in the flightaware.com tracklog.
• The aircraft experienced an unexplained loss of power while at 800 ASL.  This resulted in a lack of flight data from the aircraft’s onboard recorders.  The last two to three minutes of the flight have been reconstructed using other data, including  onshore radar records.
• The pilot did indicate his intention to ditch from 800 ASL.
• Force on the aircraft at impact is estimated at 20g.

More to follow.

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You can’t see if the tin foil covers your eyes

For those who don’t know,  the federal government has been working since about 2004 to extend Canada’s jurisdiction to cover the entire continental shelf, including the bits beyond the 200 mile exclusive economic zone.

News that France is trying to lay claim to bits of the shelf outside the Canadian 200 mile exclusive economic zone will come as no surprise.

The seabed involved is a potentially lucrative bit of real estate.  The French will try to press a claim based on St. Pierre but it will be tough to see how they could possibly make it fly, at least if you take a look at the current state of international law.

Now none of that will stop some locals who have an interest in fomenting unrest and fostering ignorance from claiming all sorts of vile things.  That’s what they do and then claim that their inventions are “truth”.

In any event, those links will take you to some facts that – as always – tell a completely different story than the one you’ll hear pumped out of a certain small but vocal minority.

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More pork posts

The only thing that really comes out of a pledge to have the provincial government try to take on some sort of international role is more plum pork patronage appointments.

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A tin foil hat donnybrook in the making

1.  Canada is working on a claim to the nose and tail of the Grand Banks under the law of the Sea Convention.

2.  France – using St. Pierre as the basis – want the same ocean territory under Law of the Sea.

3.  The nose and tail of Grand Banks are very important to Newfoundland and Labrador fishing interests, harvesters and processors alike.

4.  But Canada apparently doesn’t look after poor little Newfoundland and Labrador.  The tough little province that parts it’s hair down the middle must go out and fight with everyone for every scrap it gets.

Well, at least that’s the story some people keep pushing.

5.  And we we heard that the same day that the federal government started the racket with France over the nose and tail of the Grand Banks.

There was a run on tin foil at Sobeys last night in some parts of St. John’s as the faithful put on their battle armour for the fight of their lives.

They just have one problem.

Do they attack France for going after our fish or do they go after Ottawa for not fighting for Newfoundland and Labrador?

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Nothing could be further from the truth: Abitibi expropriation version

Natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale answered a question yesterday on the offer the provincial government made for Star Lake.

Here’s her answer:

Mr. Speaker, some time ago Abitibi Bowater informed the Province that it was considering selling its Star Lake asset and invited the Province to make a bid. The Province through Nalcor did that, Mr. Speaker, and the bid was not accepted, in part due to an agreement they have with their shareholder on Star Lake who has the right of first refusal. It was certainly clear to us that Abitibi really was not interested in selling that asset to the Province. We made a fair bid, it was not accepted and we have moved on. It was not a matter of any great consequence, Mr. Speaker, and we were not trying to hide anything from anybody in terms of our discussions around the expropriation. It was completely new discussion at that point in time.

As a rule, when someone volunteers something that is not directly related to the question – especially if it is a denial -  then you can safely assume this is a sensitive issue.  Yu might even believe that the denial isn’t the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth.

You could even believe that, in fact, nothing could be further from the truth than the denial.

That’s why this bit of Dunderdale’s comments sand out.  They don’t fit.  They are unnecessary and they are a denial of something that hasn’t been said, at least in the House.

… have moved on. It was not a matter of any great consequence, Mr. Speaker, and we were not trying to hide anything from anybody in terms of our discussions around the expropriation. It was completely new discussion at that point in time.

Odd are that the expropriation had a whole big bunch to do with that experience. So big a bunch and such a gigantic portion that until February, Dunderdale and her boss hadn’t said boo about the whole affair. The rest of us learned of it about February 20.

And of course, the fact is that Dunderdale’s department was and is trying to hide everything about the expropriation. Bond Papers readers already know that.

In fact until yesterday, the department wouldn’t even confirm the expropriation process.  Even then it only got a one liner in a news release that also looks suspicious, suspiciously like an attempt to appear to be doing something in the midst of a local political crisis.

Yesterday, was also the first time Dunderdale gave any accounting whatsoever of her secret mission to Ottawa, an issue we pointed out when it happened, over a month ago.

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His master’s voice

The Speaker of the House of Assembly is supposed to be a pretty powerful figure.  He certainly isn’t supposed to take direction from any one member of the legislature.

That’s what makes Roger Fitzgerald’s response to Danny Williams very odd.  Fitzgerald could have easily – and should have easily – taken the initiative on sending condolences on behalf of members rather than wait to have the suggestion made by someone.  Instead, this is what happened:

MR. SPEAKER: Further tabling of documents?

Notices of motion.

The hon. the Premier.

PREMIER WILLIAMS: Mr. Speaker, if you deem it appropriate, perhaps it would be in order for letters of condolences be sent out on behalf of all members to the families of the crew and the passengers of Flight 491 on behalf of all members of the House of Assembly under your signature, if that is appropriate.

MR. SPEAKER: It is certainly appropriate and the Speaker will take your suggestion under advisement and do as you directed.

Long after they’d finished the condolences and minute of silence, up pops the Prem with this comment.

Then Roger says he will “do as you directed”.

Do as directed?

Maybe we can understand now why Roger sided with the Provincial Conservatives in shafting the Liberals on caucus funding.  He was just following orders.

So what other orders is the supposedly impartial Fitzgerald taking from the 8th?

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Sound fiscal mismanagement

Not.

From nottawa, the first perspective on the provincial budget which is scheduled to to be presented on Thursday.

Take a look at the chart of capital and current account spending. 

Since when is increasing spending by 18% in a recession “sound fiscal management”?

Well, it isn’t.

The only people who would use those terms to describe the provincial government spending habits over the past four years are people who have never actually looked at what is going on.

Either that or they are sitting on the government benches or work for people sitting on the government benches.

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Related:

“We live in a fiscal house of cards” (March 2008)

“What goes up must come down” (March 2008)

Before you click to another page because this is all old hat, consider that in 2003, oil was around US$25 per barrel.  The only people who predicted that within five years oil would hit US$100 a barrel within five years were either in an insane asylum, considered candidates for a straightjacket or part of a very small group of oil pundits who had been faithfully predicting hundred dollar a barrel since the 1970s.  Eventually they had to be right, just like a psychic.

Ask around today and you'd have a hard time finding anyone who will tell you that we will see oil below US$50 a barrel in the near future either.

Odds are better, though, that oil will drop to US$50 and lower within the next decade.

Okay so it happened a little sooner than predicted.

TSB releases S-92 photos

The Transportation Safety Board today released four pictures of the S-92 wreckage.

The photo at left depicts the upper deck of the fuselage.  TSB describes this as being from the right side of the aircraft.

The engine exhaust port can be seen just above the centre of the yellow bar of the storage basket. 

The two long bands that meet in a “v” shape appear to be two of the helicopters four blades.

The portion underneath what appears to be an orange tarpauline (obscuring the aircraft registration number)  at the lower right of the picture appears to be part of the lower right fuselage, turned upside down and backwards.  The opening facing the camera would be part of the lower front window.

The orange tarp may actually be one of the aircraft’s flotation bladders.  One is located under each side of the cockpit area.

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Encounters with reality

From the 1998 special Confederation anniversary edition of the Journal of Newfoundland and Labrador Studies, some food for thought for the more ardent of the anti-Confederates out there:

1.  For the “whole thing was rigged” faction:  “Confederation, conspiracy and choice: a discussion” by Memorial University historian Jeff Webb.

2.  For the “Canada killed the cod” crowd: “The background to change in the Newfoundland cod fishery at the time of Confederation” by Miriam Wright.  Wright is also the author of a significant book on the industrialization of the fishery. 

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Sikorsky starts fix on gearbox problem

Via David Pugliese of the Ottawa Citizen;

STRATFORD, Conn., March 23, 2009 – Sikorsky Aircraft Corp. announced today that the majority of the worldwide S-92 helicopter fleet already has complied with the company’s notice to retrofit the aircraft’s gearbox oil bowl with steel mounting studs. The company expects to have close to 100 percent compliance by the end of this week. Sikorsky is a subsidiary of United Technologies Corp.

The company contacted all S-92 helicopter operators on March 20 after broken titanium studs were found during a helicopter crash investigation in Canada. The investigation is continuing, and no determination has been made that the broken studs contributed to the accident or if they resulted from it.  Sikorsky immediately notified the operators as a safety precaution, and the Federal Aviation Administration is expected to issue an Airworthiness Directive instructing the retrofit.

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Compensation talks? We dun need no stinkin’ compensation talks

Apparently compensation talks between the provincial government and AbitibiBowater have broken off.

When they broke off no one knows since natural resources minister Kathy Dunderdale didn’t say and apparently no one asked. Talk about freedom from information.

But were they ever on in the first place?

According to AbitibiBowater chairman David Paterson, the only “talks” involved Abitibi and the provincial government’s energy company, NALCO.

Still, he said, the process is very one-sided. "[It] basically consists of Newfoundland telling us what they are going to do and we have to comply."

He said the expropriation legislation does not give the company any right to a judicial hearing. As a result, the determination of value "is at their whim."

Read the comments on the CBC story linked above though and you’ll see a bunch of people who don’t appear to have thought all this through.  Telling Abitibi to take nothing doesn’t real solve anything, especially if the company winds up in bankruptcy protection or  - worst of all – goes under entirely.  There are a bunch of pensioners in Newfoundland and Labrador with a financial interest in this. Then there are the loggers who have been looking for some sort of severance package even though their union contract didn’t provide anything of the sort.

These sorts of details make the last sentence of the CBC story a bit odd:

While AbitibiBowater has no legal obligation to pay any severance at all, the government has been pressuring the company to pay it anyway as it did when it closed its mill in Stephenville.

Since the company doesn’t have any interest left in the province and the provincial government seized all the company’s assets, exactly what sort of leverage the provincial government might have over AbitibiBowater is a bit hard to see. maybe the only people who will wind up with “nuddin” - to quote one person who commented on the CBC story – will be the mill’s former workers.

Environmental trade-offs update:  Just for those who haven’t been following along closely, the provincial government had intended from the outset to bargain based on a trade off between the environmental clean-up at the mill site and the hydro assets.  The Telegram version of the story makes reference to this without giving that bit of background:

She also said the discussions included severance packages for loggers and the companies environmental liability of its operation.

Basically, the idea is that the money paid by the provincial government would be reduced by any amounts forked over for clean-up and severance.  Now aside from the fact the provincial government has no leverage over AbitibiBowater on the severance, it surely must strike someone as odd the provincial government would tie these things together in this way.

After all, the company is liable for the clean-up any way.  They could also be pressed on a moral obligation to provide some severance package to loggers even if their union hadn’t been able to secure that benefit.

But linking those payments to compensation basically seems to make the provincial government out as the source of the cash.  The company won’t be paying any money for clean-up or severance under this scheme.  The cash will come out of public funds.

And if the company goes bankrupt, as some seem to wish for, the provincial government will essentially be left holding the entire bag.

So what exactly was this expropriation all about, again?

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Spinning him into his grave

or the dangers of google?

Jim Halley was a well respected local lawyer and a relentless anti-Confederate. Why CBC describes him as an “anti-Confederation advocate” is a mystery;  it seems such an awkward construction.

At least as far as that goes, Halley never got over the loss in 1949.

You don’t have to agree with him to respect him and with his death this past week at age 87, to offer condolences to his loved ones grieving his loss.

But voice of the cabinet minister, a radio station that ought to know better, did Jim Halley a tremendous disservice this week.  In their obit piece they gave him credit for something he didn’t do and for something he’d never have claimed anyway since he was adamantly opposed to Confederation (or at least the way it was negotiated) in the first place:

A former lawyer involved in negotiating the deal to get Newfoundland into Canada in 1949 has passed away.

Involved in negotiating the deal?  If anyone has some detail that will corroborate that one, we’d happily receive it.  If anything, Halley’s involvement was in trying to un-negotiate the deal.

Maybe the scribes over at the Great Oracle of the Valley got the line from a 2003 CBC web story [note the date] on the supposed rise of anti-Confederate sentiment in Newfoundland.

James Halley, one of the lawyers involved in negotiating the deal to get Newfoundland into Canada in 1949, says the province got a raw deal, especially in regard to the fisheries.

"Newfoundland has a growing cancer in its system," he said. "The root of our trouble is centred in the relationship between the two countries, between Newfoundland as a country and Canada."

Rest in peace, Mr. Halley. 

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Suncor and Petro-Canada to merge

From the Globe and Mail:

"This merger creates a made-in-Canada energy leader with the assets, cost structure and financial strength to compete globally," said Rick George, Suncor's current chief executive and prospective head of the joint venture.

The deal would create a new champion in the Canadian oil patch and unite two of the biggest players in the oil sands of northern Alberta, provided that the companies can stickhandle their way around federal legislation that was once thought to make Petro-Canada immune to a takeover. Under the Petro-Canada Public Participation Act, no person or company can own or control more than 20 per cent of the company's voting shares and the head office must remain in Calgary.

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Lemme get this straight

Greg Malone, actor, is working on a new book which is supposed to prove the Great Townie Anti-Confederate Fairytale once and for all, i,.e. that Confederation was a Great Conspiracy between Canada and Britain, part of which involved hoodwinking the poor dumb newfs

Wouldn’t this be classified as a re-make?

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