Hibernia Southern Extension MOU Assessment, Part II: Equity and industrial benefits

[Part I  Royalty]

Equity

According to the backgrounder released on Tuesday, the provincial government’s oil company will acquire a 10% interest in only that portion of the extension to be developed through tie-backs. 

That has been described as covering 170 million barrels, however, as with Hebron that figure may become smaller in the final agreement.

The acquisition price is $30 million however the backgrounder provided no estimates the development costs, operating costs or other costs associated with the project.

According to some sources, part of the delay in reaching the memorandum of understanding came from re-unitizing the existing licenses, especially EL 1093.  There are seven interest-holders in that license with four of them having less than 10%.

As with Hebron, details of the acquisition agreement will not be made public.  As with Hebron, information crucial to a thorough assessment of the acquisition and the provincial government’s share will remain hidden from public scrutiny.

Industrial and local benefits

Aside from existing benefits arrangements under the Hibernia development plan and offshore regulatory board regulations, no new or enhanced local benefits are contained in the backgrounder.

The project will be developed using a combination of slant drilling from the existing Hibernia platform (50 million barrels) and sub-sea tie-backs to the platform.  This was not a part of the 2006 application. 

However, planned expansion of the Hibernia GBS appears to have been shelved. This significantly reduces the potential amount of local work available.  The project is smaller than what was suggested last June when the Premier indicated a Hibernia South deal would be in place by the end of 2008. 

"We fully expect Hibernia South to be concluded by the end of this calendar year," Williams told more than 700 people attending the annual offshore conference hosted by the Newfoundland and Labrador Oil and Gas Industries Association (NOIA).

As it turned out, the MOU was signed in mid 2009 and final agreements are not expected until early 2010. That would be three years after the provincial government vetoed the development and two years after the oil companies originally planned to start production.

Local companies already have demonstrated expertise in supply and in fabrication of sub-sea components.  Thus, local companies should be able to secure fabrication and related work on the project.

This is particular interesting since two of the four reasons given for vetoing the development plan in 2007 related to local benefits:

• The province needs more information on what options exist for other modes of development to extract the oil from Hibernia South. This may have implications for overall benefits.
• The lack of a Benefits Plan Amendment. This is a departure from the normal process and the CNLOPB did not require it in the "interest of expediency."

Through the MOU, the provincial government also accepts the offshore board’s position in the voted application with respect to local benefits (affirmative action, research and development and education and training). 

This is significant since these aspects of local benefits were cited as an area of concern for the provincial government  with the board’s approval of the plan.  In a subsequent exchange of correspondence energy minister Kathy Dunderdale accused the offshore board of failing in its responsibilities for local benefits yet it appears the government has ultimately accepted what the companies initially proposed and board approved. 

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Hibernia Southern Extension MOU Assessment, Part I: Royalty - some potential added cash plus a cap

While Danny William’s radio tirade/meltdown is rapidly eclipsing his own good news announcement nationally, there is interest in assessing the details of the Hibernia South Extension memorandum of understanding based on the official news release and news reports on the day of the announcement.

Caveats

As with Hebron, the final agreement may yield some details which were not readily apparent when the MOU was announced.   As well, and as with Hebron, key portions of the deal are likely to be hidden from public view.   With that said, we still have enough information to make some observations about the proposed development deal.  In this first post, we will look at the royalty regime.

General

Overall, this agreement represents a transformation from Williams Mod 1 to Williams Mod 2 in the government’s approach to offshore oil development.

Williams Mod 1 (pre-2o06) was essentially a variation pre-1984 provincial government thinking and emphasised:

• increasing local benefits especially through forced development of refining and downstream production;
• some additional revenue from federal transfers, and
• an undefined “equity” interest which is essentially analogous to the old petroleum corporation.

Williams Mod 2 (post- 2006) places the greatest emphasis on additional government revenue through the most obvious source:  enhanced royalties. This is especially clear in the Simms encounter where the Premier states:

The reason we’re caught up in the oil, it’s not the oil, it’s the black gold that’s out there, it’s not the petroleum, it’s not the oil and gas, it’s the revenue that it brings to us, so that we can deal with problems in the fishery, so that we can take care of the Abitibi workers, so that we can build new hospitals and new long terms care facilities, so that we can build new schools, so that we can lead the country in poverty reduction, and it goes on and on and on. Surely you – presumably – run a municipality. You must know the importance of revenue, and where that revenue comes from – if it comes from business, whatever form of business it is, or if it comes from residential real estate, it goes into your coffers now so you can do all the wonderful things that need to be done. [Emphasis added]

Government-induced infrastructure has been effectively abandoned as evident in both Hebron and Hibernia South and the equity portion has also been capped artificially at 10%.  In Hibernia South, the second GBS or other production facility has been discarded for the most economical production method (slant drilling from the original GBS and tie-backs to the original GBS).

This effectively adopts the philosophy that guided resource development after 1985 and is best seen in the 1990 Hibernia agreement and in the subsequent developments at White Rose and Terra Nova.

As much as Danny Williams may like to complain about those who offer alternative views to his own, this basic approach has been noted before – including in this corner – as an alternative to Williams Mod 1. 

The easiest, most efficient means of enhancing government revenue is through adjustments to the royalty regime.   Revenue is needed to meet the demands for program spending and infrastructure development today. Regular readers of Bond Papers will recognise the refrain.

Hibernia Southern Extension Royalty Regime

The base for the three-part royalty is the existing Hibernia royalty regime as concluded in 1990 and modified in 2000. 

This sets the rate after simple payout (achieved a few months early) at 30% Tier 1 royalty with a further 12.5% Tier 2 royalty triggered by profitability.

This is the royalty rate – 42.5% -  that produces the bulk of the cash.

The royalty regime for the southern extension is cut into three parts.  There is no explanation as to why the rate is structured this way. The backgrounder provided with the news release does not explain the structure clearly.

Part I:    For the 50 million barrels or so that will be drilled directly from the Hibernia gravity base structure, there is the 42.5%  that already exists in the Hibernia royalty regime established in 1990 and modified in 2000.

There is no price trigger for this since the original royalty regime did not tie provincial government revenues to oil prices directly.

Part II:  For the portion of the project that is under the original production License 1001 (PL 1001), the basis is the original Hibernia royalty regime (maximum 42.5%, not tied to price).

In addition there is a further 7.5% royalty when prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) are above US$50.  Above WTI at US$70 there is an additional 5%. 

There is a cap on the royalty however: 

Should supplementary royalty payout be achieved under the terms of the original Hibernia contract be achieved, the top rate will be 50 per cent.

It would appear that once the project has triggered the Tier 1 and Tier 2 royalties (42.5%),  only an additional 7.5% is available beyond that irrespective of price. 

Part III:   There is a similar 50% cap in the new areas, i.e. the ones covered by PL 1005 and Exploration License 1093 (EL 1093).  The cap is achieved by reducing the incremental royalty tied to price (WTI at US$50) from 7.5% to 2.5%.

Observations

Overall, this represents a complex arrangement that modifies the existing royalty regime slightly. The complexity may be due in part to the highly diversified interests in the three licenses, especially EL1093.

In many pricing scenarios, then, the maximum available royalty from what is described here as Part II of the regime  would appear to be the same as under the existing Hibernia regime, i.e. 42.5%.

On the face of it, the Part II and Part III royalty structures offer an identical outcome.  Additional information would be needed to explain how the structure works and why it is in place.

The provincial government revenue figure offered in the announcement  - $10 billion – is apparently derived almost entirely by applying the existing Hibernia Royalty Regime to an environment in which oil prices are considerably above the average price that existing during the initial phase of the project.

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Money Update:  Premier Danny Williams told CBC’s David Cochrane today that the estimate of $10 billion of provincial revenue from Hibernia South is based on an estimated average oil price of $83 over the next decade.

There is something suspicious about the government calculation though since Williams claimed on Tuesday that five times as much oil left in Hibernia as in Hibernia South would net the province only slightly less cash than Hibernia proper even though both projects use essentially the same royalty regime:

We expect a further $13 billion from the remaining main field production and this extension adds an estimated $10 billion more in revenue for the province…

Randy Simms: the wind beneath Danny’s wings

When Danny Williams rails against relentless negativity, he knows of what he speaks.

The guy who built the early part of his career tearing down anything that came before him now finds it a wee bit uncomfortable when someone dares to suggest there could be other things to gain the Premier’s attention besides oil.

The audio from the Premier’s five minute tantrum this morning is rapidly spreading to every available media out there.

People are shaking their heads and many are laughing.

They shouldn’t.

It isn’t funny when a guy who should be proud of his accomplishments instead launches into a childish tirade on international radio.

It wasn’t funny at all considering that Simms is above all else a decent and fair journalist. His comments earlier weren’t out of line and Williams’ tirade is built entirely out of his own invention not anything Simms said.

For those who missed it, here’s the audio along with some stills to give you something to look at.

Meeker Nails it Update:  the whole thing transcribed.

When you’re done, go check out an eerily similar rant from Joe Smallwood aimed at a much younger Randy Simms.

Smallwood rant mp3

 

 

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You couldn’t make this crap update:  Best line uttered in the spittle-fest is the reference to “hard-core” infrastructure.

Apparently government spending is now like pornography.  it comes in hard-core and soft-core versions.

What’s the difference, you ask?

Well, in soft-core the building is simulated by actors and there is no actual construction.

Wonder what that makes the stimulus package where almost half the projects started some time ago and some have been the subject of multiple announcements?

Hibernia South memorandum of understanding

There’s a non-binding memorandum of understanding to develop new areas of the Hibernia field with a final agreement expected in early 2010. 

Hibernia South includes 220 million barrels of recoverable oil.  There is an estimated 1.24 billion barrels of proven and probable recoverable oil reserves in the Hibernia project, including the Hibernia South area, and as much as 1.9 billion barrels covering proven, probable and possible reserves.

Proven reserves are 782 million barrels of which 605 million barrels have been produced up to April 30, 2009.

That means there is 640 million barrels of proven and probable reserves to exploit and as much as 1.295 million barrels including possible reserves.

The existing Hibernia project has also hit simple payout, raising provincial royalties under the Hibernia royalty regime to 30%.  That will deliver additional cash to the provincial treasury in the current fiscal year that wasn’t previously accounted for.

The MOU also contains a settlement of a dispute on calculation of transportation costs for the Hibernia project. The understanding adopts the provincial government interpretation retroactive to first oil in 1997. 

According to the news release, this understanding is responsible for the attainment of simple payout.  However, in 2007,  estimates existed that the project would achieve payout in 2009 or 2010 based on production levels and anticipated oil prices at the time unconnected to either project expansion or the transportation cost interpretation dispute.

In the wake of failed talks on the Hebron project in 2006, the Williams administration vetoed a development application for a portion of Hibernia South. That redevelopment plan was resubmitted in 2008, as anticipated by the Canada Hibernia Holding Corporation in 2007.

There were some indications the provincial government planned to seek development of Hibernia South as a new project with a new production platform.  The MOU announced on Tuesday calls for the production methods originally proposed by the operators using the existing Hibernia platform.

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More to follow on MOU announcement including a review of the royalty regime.

Freedom from information: lack of briefing notes for minister called “bizarre” by senior government official

An unnamed senior public sector manager has termed a move by government to eliminate briefing notes for ministers “bizarre”.

The official is quoted in a post by Telegram blogger Geoff Meeker.  The unidentified official spoke only on condition of anonymity.

“I don't think it's possible to keep up to speed without a briefing book,” said the person, who has worked at some of the highest levels of the public service.

“It will make it very difficult to understand, in retrospect, why certain decisions were made - very dangerous for the staff who must execute them and very problematic if one needs to retrace and do a course-correction on something that's gone off the rails. Without briefing books, corporate memory is very much reduced and future government decisions rendered more difficult.”

The comment came after another Telegram story (not online) in which Joan Burke, government house leader and minister of a newly created child, youth and family services department, said that she had received no briefing notes when taking over her new portfolio. Burke told the Telegram’s Rob Antle that

“I didn’t want to be handed a binder with 500 to 1,000 sheets of paper to try to determine what’s important and what’s not, and what’s current and what I need on my radar.”

As Meeker points out, Burke’s attitude may have little to do with what she described as her desire to get down to work.

Burke was embroiled in a controversy last year over the hiring of a new president for Memorial University.  Details of the minister’s involvement became embarrassing when the Liberal opposition office obtained copies of government records through the Access to Information and Protection of Privacy Act and provided them to local media.

The documents including e-mails and briefing notes that included questions for Burke to use during her screening interviews with the two finalists selected by the university’s hiring process.  Burke rejected both candidates.

Briefing notes have also proved embarrassing for other cabinet ministers.

A note prepared for Burke’s successor in November 2008 on financial implications of “autonomy” for Grenfell College from Memorial University, another controversial policy from Burke’s tenure in education, was virtually completed deleted before being released under the province’s open records laws.  While promised two years ago, there is still no sign of the enabling legislation.

During the Cameron inquiry into the hormone receptor scandal, health minister Ross Wiseman stated under oath that he had not read briefing notes on the issue when he took over the portfolio.  As CBC reported,

… Wiseman said he did not have the opportunity to read briefing notes about the cancer testing after he was sworn in as health minister, because he was busy tackling other pressing issues and preparing for the annual budget.

Opposition politicians have also claimed that ministers apparently no longer receive briefing notes to use in preparation for the House of Assembly.

Meeker’s public sector manager also described some of the concerns about the new policy which would see the elimination of any paper trail of documents and backgrounders for ministers. 

“Without briefing documents, the public can never really know what grounds decisions were made on - cutting the foundation out from under transparency and accountability, not to mention history - how will future generations understand the story of this government and this time without primary research sources?

“This puts a great burden on senior and mid-level public officials to keep good records in their own briefing books and black books. These would be accessible under ATIPP, but that leaves the paper trail with the officials, not the Minister. And if they don't keep good records, well - we all heard during the Cameron inquiry how difficult it is for these busy, busy people [cabinet ministers and political staff] to recall details from 6 or 12 months ago.”

That last point is particularly cogent:  at one point during the inquiry, an exasperated commissioner Justice Margaret Cameron commented that many of the witnesses seemed to have difficulty recalling anything at all. 

The premier's chief of staff, Brian Crawley, was sent an e-mail in July, 2005 that warned of a major story about to break involving breast cancer testing mistakes.

But Crawley testified he can't remember getting the e-mail or even talking to anyone in the premier's office — including the premier — about it.

"I really don't remember anything about those early days at all," he said.

Judge Margaret Cameron asked Crawley whether he remembered any of the events of July and he responded, "No."

"You don't remember seeing anything about this until the story broke in the Independent [Newfoundland & Labrador Independent newspaper] and you don't even really remember reading the Independent story," she said.

Crawley was not alone and that exchange prompted an angry premier Danny Williams to criticise Cameron over the remark, as cbc.ca/nl reported:

When Crawley answered one question about what he would have done in a situation, Cameron replied, "Well, I'm getting a lot of that, 'This is what I would've done,' but nobody ever remembers seemingly having done much."

On Friday, Williams fired back.

"I have to say I was disappointed. I was disappointed as I watched Madame Justice Cameron show disdain for a professional witness who was before her, giving testimony, honestly, forthright, under oath, to the best of his or her ability," Williams told reporters.

Meeker’s post and the comments by the unnamed official echo concerns identified in Donald Savoie’s recent book on the erosion of accountability at White hall and in Ottawa.

In Court government: the collapse of accountability in Canada and the United Kingdom, Savoie documents a similar practice of eliminating briefing notes and other official written documents in order to avoid the access to information laws.

In addition to the move to eliminate a paper trail, Savoie also notes concerns among politicians with whistleblower legislation as part of a larger trend away from government openness and internal and external accountability.

Savoie also points to the appearance of unofficial practices within the administration of government that are also designed to avoid disclosure under access to information laws.  For example, one study cited by Savoie found that requests from politicians and the media took longer to process than those from others even though there did not appear to be any particular difference in one request from another.   

Similar efforts by officials to skirt open records laws have already been noted in Newfoundland and Labrador.

For example, officials have invented a concept called non-responsive records to refer to documents which are apparently covered by an access request but which are not  released. One of the Burke e-mails on Memorial University, for example, includes a deletion marked “non-responsive” rather than use the official requirement to cite a specific section of the access law under which a deletion is made.

Perhaps the most notorious example was a claim that records did not exist even though the Premier and other officials acknowledged that they did.

In another case, access to documents was denied on the grounds that the review was ongoing.  The request had not been for a final report but for documents relating to the study and an accounting of its costs.

Officials have also been able to avoid disclosure based on questionable claims about the scope of the request.

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RBC on NL economy: strong headwinds

RBC Economics has revised downward its 2009 forecast for the Newfoundland and Labrador with the economy expected to shrink by 3.5%.

That’s the largest forecast drop in GDP in the country and compares to the 1.9% shrinkage forecast in March 2009.

RBC also forecasts the province will have one of the  top economies in the country in 2010.

However, if you look at the chart, virtually all provinces will experience growth of nearly 3.0% in 2010 as the effects of all that government stimulus spending takes hold.

That wouldn’t be entirely surprising since Newfoundland and Labrador is also spending among the largest amounts in the country on stimulus as a percentage of gross domestic product.

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More to follow update:

From another RBC Economics report released on June 5:

• Employment in the province is expected to be down by almost 7%.  that's the biggest drop of any province.
• While our housing prices and starts are tops in the country, the resale price is expected to drop about 15%.  That's right in the middle of the pile. 
• Manufacturing sales are expected to be down about 26%.  That's the biggest drop in the country.
• Retail sales are forecast to be up by the highest amount in the country.  Most places are dropping.
  

RBC expects 2010 to be relatively good again based on increases in mineral production, the expanded White Rose project and government infrastructure spending. Here's how they view the current situation:

On the resources side, softer demand and the resulting nose-dive in the prices for commodities following last summer’s peaks have negatively affected energy and metals production in the province. Iron ore mining operations cut output by nearly 19% in the first quarter compared to a year ago and rapidly rising stocks would indicate that they will further slash it in the near term. Market-related downtime is also affecting nickel production. In the case of crude oil, rapid maturation of the province’s existing offshore oil fields will keep output on an accelerated downward track until late this year or early next when the White Rose project expansion enters into operation. Crude oil production in Newfoundland and Labrador fell by more than 4% year-over-year during the first quarter.

There are two things that should be noted.

First of all, next year's return to growth in GDP is driven by government spending.  While it's great that government had the cash to throw into a stimulus package, the amount of cash on hand is finite and will likely be consumed over the next two years.

If the economy doesn't rebound as expected, then 2011 and beyond may be different especially since the provincial government won't have the ready piles of cash to toss around.

At the same time, demand for increases in other sectors will start biting into the government treasury.  That twin challenge - increased demand and decreased resources to meet the demand - could become even more pronounced if the drop in oil production that will take place is coupled with soft energy markets and lower than forecast resource prices.

Second of all, and following out of the prospects of recovery, it must be borne in mind that the provincial economy is tied directly and indirectly to the American one. The prospects for a major turn around locally are very much tied to recovery south of the border.  Concerns about that prospect continue. RBC is forecasting a turnaround in the US economy in 2010.

JSS project may be scrapped

National Defence is looking at all the options for the troubled Joint Support Ship Contract including scrapping the whole thing, according to the Ottawa Citizen.

There’s also a possibility the project will be restarted from scratch with a new project definition.

That would take seven years to get the new ship to the navy.

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The drunk driving sentence that never was

Local media outlets reported on Friday that a man had been sentenced in Grand bank to two years in jail and the loss of his driving license for 99 years.

cbc.ca/nl carried it and the thing has garnered a huge number of comments. Ditto the Telegram although there are only 14 comments there. It made the voice of the cabinet minister as well.

Courtesy of Canadian Press the story went national and turned up in at least one newspaper, the Edmonton Sun.

The thing is online as well a liveleak.com and a local Edmonton bulletin board/forum.

Wonderful story.

Except for one small problem:  it isn’t entirely accurate.

Your humble e-scribbler thought the story sounded suspicious since the sentence of 99 years sounded a bit American.

An inquiry turned up the full details and another inquiry turned up the news release issued by the Burin district office of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police that started the thing.

Here’s the release:

Impaired driver receives 2 year prison sentence and prohibited from driving for 99 years

On Thursday, June 11th, 2009 a 47 year old Burin man received a two year prison sentence and is prohibited from driving for 99 years as a result of an incident that was investigated by the Burin Peninsula District RCMP in the community of Burin on Wednesday, June 10th, 2009.

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For further information please contact the undersigned, …

Okay, for starters, the release should have ended with –30-, if anything, not –34- but that’s neither here nor there for our purposes.

News media can’t be faulted for taking what they were given by an official source and using it.

So here’s the fuller and more accurate story.

The RCMP arrested the fellow on Wednesday after receiving a call about an impaired driver.  They managed to nab him fairly quickly  - after a brief chase - and he appeared in court on Thursday.

As it turned out he had five prior convictions for impaired driving and in the most recent one had been sentenced in Nova Scotia provincial court in Cape Breton to a 10 year suspension of his driving privileges.  He was charged in Grand Bank with impaired driving, refusing the breathalyser and driving while prohibited.

In the jigs and the reels of it all, the Crown and defence counsels worked out a plea agreement by which the fellow received two years in jail and a lifetime prohibition from driving. The whole thing – from offence to arrest to conviction  - took less than 24 hours. That, plus the back story are way better than what actually hit the news, at least it’s way better in the opinion of your humble e-scribbler.

So where’d the “99” thing come from?

Certainly not from anyone in the court room, as it turned out.

The form used by the court staff to record this type of sentence gives space for two digits.  A five year suspension would be entered as “05” and a 10 year suspension would be “10” and so on.  Since there is no way numerically to figure out how long a life time suspension actually is, the court system codes a lifetime suspension as “99”, that being the largest two digit number there is and one that wouldn’t be confused with anything else. 99 is the max under the coding system and lifetime is the max under the legal system.

Pretty simple.

But someone reading the court form only and who  - as it turns out – was not familiar with the coding system dutifully bashed out a short news release that included the sentence as being two years in jail plus a 99 year suspended license. 

He also apparently didn’t have time to get the more complete story.  That said, the story as presented is rightfully garnering praise for the police and the court from the people making comments on the CBC and Telegram stories.

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Global oil round-up

Some randomly selected articles from around the world on the current state of the oil industry.

1.  Omani oil revenues in the first four months of 2009 are down about 50% from the same time last year, according to Reuters.

2.  Expect a downward oil price correction shortly, according analysts quoted in the Edmonton Journal.   They put the drop to the low 60s or high 50s a barrel.  [Hint;  they’re conservative;  think lower still]  Among the factors cited:  weak demand, new production coming on stream and tons of oil currently in storage onshore and offshore that doesn’t have a market yet.

3.  Of course,the peak oil cultists are still predicting the opposite so they see any lowering as just a temporary calm before the Apocalypse hits.

4.  Scan to the bottom of this article on a recent meeting of  PetroCaribe and you’ll see reference to Cuban oil potential:

In the case of Cuba, Venezuela's financial and energy support is critical to supporting the Castro regime. Energy dependence has long been Cuba's Achilles' heel.

Havana used to depend on the east bloc for cut-rate oil, and plunged into economic chaos and blackouts when it was cut off after 1989. Now it depends on crude from ally Venezuela.

Cuba is negotiating oil exploration and production deals with Russia, China and Angola, with Moscow shaping up as the partner that could make the communist island energy self-sufficient, if its untapped offshore reserves pan out.

If it can achieve energy independence, Cuba may in the blink of an eye turn from a cash-strapped developing nation into a flush oil exporter, possibly projecting its current regime years into the future.

Cuban authorities in October announced that the Caribbean nation's crude reserves were more than double what had been thought, and now were estimated to be about 20 billion barrels.

5. OPEC oil production rose slightly in May, up again from a slight rise in April. Compliance with the OPEC production quota dropped again in May with Venezuela, Iran and Angola exceeding their quotas.  Go back to the article on PetroCaribe and you’ll see Venezuela is in the middle of a little local power play involving oil.  Venezuela runs an oil rent-to-own scheme in which countries in the region can buy Venezuelan crude on credit. 

6.  Still, OPEC lowered its oil demand forecast for 2009, which only makes sense in the current real market.

7.  While there may be some dispute as to whether Cuban oil potential is 20 billion barrels or five billion barrels, there’s no doubt interest is growing in developing the Caribbean nation’s offshore resources.

Either way, Cuba’s oil is attracting the attention of oil companies from around the globe. At the moment, Spain’s Repsol, Brazil’s Petrobras, and Norway’s StatoilHydro are overseeing exploratory drilling in the Gulf of Mexico. India, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Venezuela also have signed deals with Cuba.

Maybe Cuban oil potential is behind signs of a thaw in American-Cuban relations.

8.  Closer to home, there’s the NOIA oil and gas conference next week and with it, the annual speculation that Premier Danny Williams might say something earth-shattering despite the fact that making an announcement there would  involve sharing the spotlight with NOIA.

He hasn’t done anything like it before but people still like to stoke the hype.  Last year CBC got suckered into the whole thing in a big way;  this year it’s the Telly’s turn on a smaller scale and focusing on Hibernia South.

Now if the Hebron thing is anything to go by, what comes out the end could be a whole lot less than the hype suggested and some of the details have some really disturbing implications.  Of course, hype is more fun than details.

9.  Speaking of the NOIA conference, the theme this year focuses on the potential for the Arctic.

There’s the global perspective:

SESSION 2: TECHNOLOGIES FOR ARCTIC ENVIRONMENTS 2:30 p.m.

Russia’s Shtokman Project: an Update
Sergey Smityushenko, First Deputy Governor of Murmansk Oblast, Russia

Exploration and Production Options for the Alaskan Offshore
Mike Paulin, President, IMV Projects Atlantic

Pushing the Envelopment: R&D Advances for Arctic Oil and Gas Development
Jim Bruce, Deputy Director Ice Engineering, C-CORE

Canadian Frontiers Operating in Harsh Environments
Peter Haverson, General Manager, Global Drilling, International and Offshore, Petro-Canada

And the local one:

SESSION 4: FARTHER, DEEPER, COLDER 2:30 p.m.

Chevron's Growth Strategy for Atlantic Canada
Mark MacLeod, Atlantic Canada Manager, Chevron Canada Limited

Greenland - A Steppingstone to Arctic Exploration
Gregors Dam, Chief Geologist, Dong Energy

Playing to our Strengths
Mark Shrimpton, Principal and Practice Director, Socio-Economic Services, Jacques Whitford Stantec

Defining the Outer Limits of Canada's Continental Shelf in the Atlantic and Arctic Oceans Under the Law of the Sea
Jacob Verhoef, Director, UNCLOS Program, Natural Resources Canada

That last session is one to watch since the issue of  oil development at and beyond the edge of the continental shelf has implications for any developments in the Orphan Basin offshore Newfoundland.

And for those who are missing their fix of the government’s favourite economist, don’t worry.  NOIA is doing it’s bit to keep on good terms with government. 

Not only is there a reception at The Rooms, but Wade Locke is the lead speaker in the last session.  He’ll be talking up “Offshore Oil & Gas, the Economic Crisis & the Local Economy”.

If he sticks to his more recent lines, this should be fun.  Prediction:  He won’t be hyping non-existent aluminum smelter projects just as the demand for aluminum collapsed.   He might talk about the current economic situation but he might have to be more cautious about undermining the provincial government’s “we live in a bubble, all is well” talking point since the last time Locke’s comments were reported accurately, he got upset.

Right after Wade will be the provincial energy corporation’s Jim Keating who will, in all likelihood, be talking about the Lower Churchill.

Of course, that’s pretty much all there has been about the project:

• Project sanction was supposed to take place in 2009.  Then that got slid back by a mere six months. Now we don’t hear much talk of LC start dates at all.
• The land claims agreement with the Innu Nation – crucial to any development – seems to be deader than a doornail despite the initial hype about it.
• We do hear talk of slinging power lines through a UNESCO World Heritage site, something once described as the “most serious threat” to the park.
• There have also been contradictory statements about the future of the Holyrood generating plant.

And that’s just some of the stuff that hasn’t really been covered in any great detail in local media on the most talked about paper project in history.

Even if the Premier doesn’t lead off with anything Earth-shattering, there’s a prospect Jim and Wade can finish the NOIA conference with something really newsworthy.

 

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The lesson from Nova Scotia

In Newfoundland and Labrador these past few days some local adherents of the Orange Creed – that’s New Democrats, not Protestants or Dutch – have been buoyed by the success of their Nova Scotia brothers and sisters.

Others have been talking about the prospect of local New Democrats doing the same thing here that Darrell Dexter and his party did in persuading Nova Scotians to take a chance on voting NDP.

Therein lies the first lesson local New Democrats should learn:  Darrell and the crew didn’t ask Nova Scotians to “take a chance” on anything.  They presented a professional, credible alternative to the other two parties. 

There was no chance involved.

There was a choice.

A few years ago, the Nova Scotian Dippers were like other labourites.  Being a New Democrat was to be part of a social cause or a social group, not a bunch who seriously thought of winning an election.  That’s not unusual. Other labour parties have gone through the same thing.  The Labour Party in Britain once cherished ideological purity over electoral success.  So too did New Democratic parties across Canada.

But, like those other labourites elsewhere,  the Nova Scotian New Democrats decided it was better to be in office than standing impotent on the sidelines with their ideological purity intact.

That’s the second lesson the local New Democrats need to learn:  there is no substitute for power.  You can have all the lovely ideas you want but if you don’t win the election it’s just as well to order another round at the Ship and explain your theory to the bottom of a pint of Guinness.

You get to win by organizing.  Find volunteers.  Get people who know how to organize. Raise money and put it in the bank.  Find candidates.  Reach out and bring new people and new ideas into the fold.

Inevitably, there will be a crowd who will get pissed at the loss of ideological purity, but that’s the price of shedding the sack-cloth and the stench of burning martyr and donning the mantle of government.

Equally inevitably, for every old bolshevik who abandons ship for the Greens, there’ll be two or more new people who either weren’t in politics before or who defect from another team.

The two major parties don’t get elected because people vote the way their parents and grandparents did.  That’s a convenient excuse dreamed up by someone who just can’t face facts. 

The two major parties get elected because they hold onto a cadre of supporters and then add on a whole bunch of people who change their votes from time to time. The other two major parties appeal to voters with the platforms and promises by finding out what voters are looking for and then offering it to them.  Put another way, they get elected by building coalitions of people who have similar views or who can find enough reasons to vote for one team over another. 

That’s basically what politics is about:  bringing people together and that should be what New Democrats do naturally.

But they don’t.  Instead, they try to not just distinguish themselves but drive a wedge between themselves and voters.  New Democrats of the old school make it seem like it is a sign of moral weakness to have voted for the other two parties at some point.  Before one can vote New Democrat one must first  admit the sins of ones voting past.

That’s the essence of that common NDP refrain that the other two parties are all alike.  Predictably, it turns voters off.

Think about that for a second and then look at two New Democrat leaders.

Think about Jack Layton, he of the “they are all alike” school.

And then think about Darrell Dexter.

If you can perceive the differences, and you are a New Democrat, then you are well on your way to learning the Lesson from Nova Scotia. You are well on your way to bringing a genuinely competitive alternative to voters.

-srbp-

What a difference reality makes

When the provincial government announced its $800 million capital works “stimulus” package back in February, they claimed it would create 5,400 “person years” of employment.  Well, they claimed lots of things but let’s just focus on the work claim.

Now for those who don’t know, a “person year” is basically the same as one person working for a year.  Two people working for six months each is one “person year”.

Here are the quotes from the news release:

• It is anticipated the investment plan will create or sustain approximately 5,400 person years of employment this year.
• “…Approximately 5,400 person years throughout the province should go a long way in accomplishing just that…”  [That’s a quote from Hisself]

Note here that neither of them was anywhere near the front end of the release.  The Danny Williams quote is actually almost at the bitter end of not only his release but also the gigantic paragraph’s worth of words purportedly uttered by his prime ministerial lips.

That was February.

Fast forward to June.

Statistics Canada released figures showing that between May 2008 and May 2009, about 12,000 people found themselves sans paycheque in the youngest, coolest, hippest province in Canada. 

With the fishery shut down in many parts of the province upwards of another 10,000 people are in jeopardy of not having much – if any income – this year.

And then less than a week later – and totally by coincidence, of course – the provincial government issues an “update” on its fiscal plan.

Suddenly, the plan contains twice as much cash as announced back in February  and lo, and behold the claim of job creation has mushroomed.

Right there, in the very first sentence, the one where supposedly the most important information goes, there is this:

Provincial infrastructure projects totalling $1.6 billion will be tendered this fiscal year, creating an estimated 15,000 jobs (some seasonal) and providing significant economic stimulus to the economy of Newfoundland and Labrador.

Double the money and triple the job creation.

And there’s no more talk of this wussie thing, the “person year”.   Now there’s a word everyone understands:  “jobs”.

15,000 of them, we are told, right there in the very beginning of the news release so no one will miss it;  not buried a raft of  paragraphs down from the top – like say when workers comp has a potential identity theft problem – but right there in front, large as life. 

First line. 

The “lede” they call it in news circles.

With only the little bracketed aside that “some” will be seasonal.

The rest of this news release is also full of numbers.  Lots of them.  Bag fulls in fact.  So many numbers that the release must have been slow going down the wires what with all the added weight, especially right there at the front end.

But that job number is curious because it is three times the original estimate.

That job number is curious because it is right there at the front and called jobs and it is curious because it comes only six days after the people who give accurate numbers tell us that the jobs losses in the province are bad.

How bad?

Here is a chart, shamelessly swiped from labradore that shows the percentage drops or hikes in employment comparing one month to another.  “Periods in which the employment picture was better than the same month one year before are shown as green peaks. Periods in which it is worse are red valleys.”

Notice that the most recent month  - at the far right - was the worst in the past decade and that the situation since last October has generally been on par with the worst of the last decade.

And if that was not evidence enough for you of the magnitude of the employment numbers, labradore produced a chart showing the same data going back as far as Stats Canada could.

The current situation in Newfoundland and Labrador is on par with the three worst job loss periods since the late 1970s. if the fishery tanks as it now appears to be doing, we could be in for one of the worst times on record.

Now the provincial government’s massive numbers economic stimulus release did not come as an accident or as a matter of routine or out of some desire to merely ensure that the ordinary wretches of the happy province knew in detail what was going on.

The current administration is not a bunch known to be enamoured of public interest disclosure.

There was a reason behind it.

There was also a reason why the job creation figures were suddenly given prominence and, one suspects, inflated to such proportions.

It would come as no surprise to find out that there was some kind of minor political screaming going on this past week at the need to get some good news out there to counteract the Premier’s health care meltdown.  The old boy busily defended himself by tossing out numbers about all the money that was being spent.

Coincidence?

We think not.

And then there were those Stats Can figures on employment. 

And maybe, just maybe, in there as well, the government pollster might have coughed up some numbers in answer to questions available only to his client, the provincial government.  Questions that ask for an assessment of  government performance in this sector or another or on this or that issue.

Maybe the signs of confidence aren’t good.

Maybe the confidence in handling the economy question got a majority of negatives as it did at least once before with the current crowd.  Negatives as big as the publicly reported positives.   The kind of polling numbers that make Hisself sit up and take notice. 

Or put a flag bag up, suddenly and surprisingly and inexplicably (unless you had the poll data).

Bad numbers.

The kind of numbers that put monsters under a politician’s bed.

No wonder the Premier and his fish minister looked really worried when the announced some sort of fisheries aid package will come along at some undefined point in the future, if necessary.

The reality of what is going on in the province – compared to the silly hype from government and other quarters – would be enough to give anyone the heebie-jeebies.

-srbp-

We’re more than a bit sceptical too, Jerome.

Finance minister Jerome Kennedy, quoted in the Friday Telegram:

"I'm have to tell you, I'm a bit skeptical, (Prime Minister Stephen Harper) indicates that 3,000 infrastructure projects across the country are underway," he said.

"Really, at the end of the day, there may be commitments on the part of the federal government, but what's taking place in this province is as a result of our government aggressively pursuing and accelerating this infrastructure strategy."

Hmmm.

By accelerating, that would mean finishing off stuff either started or promised up to four years ago, Jerome?

Like say half the stuff Kennedy listed in his blockbuster update which in no way insulted the premier’s sensibilities about announcing and re-announcing money that had been announced upwards of seven times before in some cases?

Or would that be taking credit for more than the government was really doing, another thing Provincial Conservative Kennedy accused the federal Conservatives of doing?

Like $800 million in new infrastructure spending  - on top of the $800 million already committed for this year – some of which is cost-shared with Ottawa. That would be stuff that isn’t budgeted even though it is supposed to go out before the end of the current fiscal year.

Presumably that acceleration would be what provincial transportation minister Trevor Taylor was talking about yesterday:

"So this year, when the Federal Government offered economic stimulus money, we already had our priority list identified. We had been proactive and our sound strategic planning allowed us to move forward with a series of significant projects very smoothly.

Okay.

So we know Jerome, Trevor and da b’ys really weren’t ahead of the game since half of what they tossed out has been in the works for years.  One project committed in 2007 and promised to be delivered in 2009 just went to tender the other day.

Not really ahead of the game, are we, hmmm?

But with that to one side, surely Trevor and Jerome already inked the deal with the feds for that new money set to flow later this year.

Apparently not.

Federal finance leprechaun Jim Flaherty told CTV’s Jane Taber the other day that:

We have agreements with almost everybody, not yet with Newfoundland and Labrador.

But if Newfoundland and Labrador already had their list together, why didn’t they sign the agreement yet?

Maybe Jerome  - the guy who didn’t know what the Clerk of the legislature did – was just too busy doing something else to read his infrastructure stimulus briefing notes on the new agreement so he could sign the thing. 

Jerome was right about one thing, though:  all the talk of commitments without actually getting anything built would make anyone sceptical. 

-srbp-

The Bi-coastal Difference

Justin Trudeau, popular fundraising draw.

The townie version, courtesy of the guy who used to help bag Brian Tobin’s political cash, this time helping to bag some donors on someone else’s behalf: $100 bucks a pop at a private residence in a very exclusive part of St. John’s.

The west coast version, courtesy of the guy who sometimes carried Tobin’s bags before he got a better job:

The event, which is open to the general public for an admission fee, will be held at the Family Adventure Park on Lundrigan Drive from 2:30 to 5 p.m. June 21.

As Justin himself put it about the Corner Brook event:

“People always want to hear what I have to say, but not nearly as much as I want to hear what they have to say,” said Trudeau. “So, having a more casual format like this family barbecue and a number of other meetings with different people will allow me to make sure people have the chance to get their message out there and across.”

-srbp-

"Holy Carpet-Bombing," Batman Update: Since originally posting on this on Wednesday, your humble e-scribbler has received no fewer than three separate e-mails with the invitation to the St. John's event at SuperDean's house attached.

Amazing.

Either, I am on someone's mailing list and the thing is being mass mailed everywhere - my guess - or there is some worry about attendence. (Not my guess and hopefully not the outcome for Siobhan's sake.)

Let's not even consider that the people e-mailing aren't regular Bond Papers readers.

Hmmm.

Then again, since it is a Liberal fundraiser that might not be surprising.

Some of the most loyal BP readers are local Tories trying to stay in tune with what's happening within their own administration or people with provincial government IP addresses who presumably are getting paid to keep an eye on things.

Liberals seem have better things to to do, apparently.

One of these things…

is not like the others.

1. Hydro-electric generating plants belonging to three private sector companies.
2. Former employees of a defunct paper making operation in central Newfoundland.
3. Fish plant workers.
4. Fish plant operators and fish harvesters.

1.   Hydro-electric generating plants get seized and turned over to the government’s own energy company free of charge, regardless of the NAFTA implications, in one fell swoop and through a bill rammed through the legislature in a day.  The bill also gave government the power to set any compensation, quashed an outstanding lawsuit and decreed that no legal action could result from the expropriation.

2.  Former employees of the defunct paper plant get a shrug initially but then get $35 million.

When the cash is announced, government claims it was their intention all along to pony up.  Odd, then, that people who questioned government publicly on its intentions were savagely attacked.

Odder too that the provincial government called for the federal government to cough up the dough.  There was even one of those eerie coincidence things with the union involved.

3.  Fish plant workers in the province  - upwards of 10,000 people or more staring at no work and no income - are told they’ll get something if necessary, but it is going to take months to figure out what the whole thing will look like, if it becomes necessary.  Think make work and then employment insurance and you’ll probably be pretty much on the mark.

4.  Fish plant operators and fish harvesters  - looking at financial ruin in some cases  - are basically told to sod off given that any cash to them would be a subsidy and well, “international trade agreements”  - like NAFTA - would be affected.

Williams said the province can't get involved in price negotiations, because it could result in trade retaliation from the United States…

 

-srbp-

How the mighty have fallen

From David Pugliese, the collapse of the once fine public affairs operation at National Defence:

It’s generally recognized that from 1998 to 2005, the public affairs branch at NDHQ was among the best  in the federal government. There were of course glitches, internal battles, tensions between journalists and public affairs officers and the occasional screw-up (a brief “gag” type order in 2001 that was quickly corrected) but overall the PR system was generally seen to be quite effective by those at NDHQ and many of those journalists who used it.

At the heart of that system was the philosophy that both civilian managers and military personnel --whether they be in charge of equipment programs, policy, or human resources, or whatever - were the best spokespeople to explain things to the news media.

Your humble e-scribbler was a lowly cog in that machine from 1994 to 200 as a reserve public affairs officer. Pugliese’s praise is high indeed and those who worked during that period recognised all the elements he notes. it was something public affairs officers could be proud of and the people who implemented the system has a commitment, as Pugliese notes, to “openness and transparency.”

Not so any more.

How did this happen? Some say that “risk adverse” bureaucrats are firmly in control  while others blame senior military officers for standing impotently on the sidelines and allowing this to happen. The Conservative government, with its information-control agenda, also gets its share of the blame, according to NDHQ insiders.

I continue to watch from the outside with interest.

Some of us watch from the outside with a profound sense of loss and disappointment.  Let’s not even talk about the empathy for the poor benighted professionals forced to work inside such a stupid system.

-srbp-

“Old money” from Williams cabinet called “stimulus”

Danny Williams may not like it when federal cabinet ministers recycle announcements, but of  the 52 specific projects listed in the provincial government “economic stimulus” update news release issued on Thursday, almost half - 21 projects - were already announced, some as long ago as 2005. 

Some of the recycled old news slipped out earlier but the announcement on Thursday made the whole thing plain.

The Corner Brook long-term care facility project listed among the stimulus projects has been underway since March 2005. The Corner Brook court house, health facilities in Lewisporte and Labrador west  and renovations to the James Paton hospital in Gander date back to March 2006.

Many of those in the “old news” category were announced in 2007 in the Summer of Love spending commitment frenzy leading up to the last provincial general election. 

One project - the St. Alban’s aquaculture veterinary facility  - was announced in 2007 with a commitment the place would open in 2009.  Instead, the project has just been tendered.

There’s more to it than just the inclusion of old announcements that predate the ‘stimulus’ news conference pulled together as part of the February poll-goosing frenzy; some of the projects seem to include contributions of federal money as if the whole thing was provincial government spending.

The Torbay and CBS by-pass roads, for example, were announced in 2007 and 2008 respectively.  They’re cost-shared 50/50 with the federal government but the provincial news release shows the total cost without indicating it is only ponying up half the total. 

And while the Premier may sneer when his federal cousins announce announcements previously announced, that didn’t stop his own team from discussing projects, some of which have been included in as many as seven separate government news releases.

They are:

College of the North Atlantic campus, Labrador West:

• One
• Two
• Three
• Four
• Five

Francophone school, HVGB:

• Un
• Deux
• Trois
• Quatre
• Cinq
• Six
• Sept

Port Hope Simpson school:

•  www.releases.gov.nl.ca/releases/2007/exec/0420n04.htm
•  www.releases.gov.nl.ca/releases/2007/exec/0420n04bk1.htm
•  www.releases.gov.nl.ca/releases/2007/edu/0426n11.htm
•  www.releases.gov.nl.ca/releases/2008/edu/0429n08.htm
•  www.releases.gov.nl.ca/releases/2007/edu/0725n10.htm
•  www.releases.gov.nl.ca/releases/2007/edu/1121n02.htm
•  www.releases.gov.nl.ca/releases/2008/edu/0904n05.htm
•  www.releases.gov.nl.ca/releases/2008/laa/1120n04.htm

L’Anse au Loup:

•  www.releases.gov.nl.ca/releases/2007/laa/0129n05.htm
•  www.releases.gov.nl.ca/releases/2007/edu/0426n11.htm
•  www.releases.gov.nl.ca/releases/2007/edu/0619n08.htm
•  www.releases.gov.nl.ca/releases/2007/edu/0725n10.htm
•  www.releases.gov.nl.ca/releases/2007/edu/1121n02.htm
•  www.releases.gov.nl.ca/releases/2008/edu/0429n08.htm
•  www.releases.gov.nl.ca/releases/2008/edu/0904n05.htm
•  www.releases.gov.nl.ca/releases/2008/laa/1120n04.htm

Labrador West hospital:

•  www.releases.gov.nl.ca/releases/2006/exec/0313n02.htm
•  www.releases.gov.nl.ca/releases/2006/laa/0330n014.htm
•  www.releases.gov.nl.ca/releases/2007/tw/0212n05.htm
•  www.releases.gov.nl.ca/releases/2007/exec/0420n04bk2.htm
•  www.releases.gov.nl.ca/releases/2007/health/0426n14.htm
•  www.releases.gov.nl.ca/releases/2008/health/0429n04.htm
•  www.releases.gov.nl.ca/releases/2008/nr/0905n13.htm

Here’s the list of the 21 Old Announcements from the “stimulus” update:

• Corner Brook long-term care facility:  October 26, 2005
• Corner Brook court house:  March 2006
• Colonial Building redevelopment:  started before November 2006.
• Labrador west health centre:  March 13 2006
• Two new ferries:  2007
• College of the North Atlantic, Labrador West:  March 13, 2006
• Francophone school, Happy Valley-Goose Bay: April 2007
• New school for Port Hope Simpson:  April 2007
• New school, L'Anse au Loup:  January 2007
• St. Alban’s aquaculture veterinary facility:  Budget 2007
• New schools in Paradise:  August 2007
• CBS By-pass road:   January 2008, cost shared 50-50 with the federal government
• Torbay by-pass:  May 2007, cost shared 50-50 with the federal government
• Happy Valley Goose Bay long term care facility:  June 2007
• Hoyles Escasoni complex replacement:  October 2008
• Renovations to James Paton hospital, Gander:  March 2006.
• Lewisporte long term care facility:  March 2006
• New K-6 school for Torbay:  Summer 2007.
• New K-12 school in Baie Verte, Summer 2007.
• St Anthony School, Summer 2007
• Port Saunders School, Summer 2007

-srbp-

 

 

 

 

Polling bullshit from mayor

If Doc O’Keefe, the mayor of a Great Sittee, actually has a poll that shows him with numbers he is very comfortable with, then he’d release the whole thing.

The fact he won’t release the poll to local media suggests the numbers are a lot less rosy than O’Keefe is claiming.

That would also explain why the deputy mayor  - Ron Ellsworth - is getting his team ready for a run at the Barking-Lounger job made famous by Andy Wells and now occupied by the less-than-impressive O’Keefe.

Show us the numbers, Doc and maybe we’ll believe you.  Otherwise, that clocking noise we hear is probably your knees knocking together.

Or maybe the clock ticking out on your time as head of the Great Sittee.

-srbp-

Eerie coincidence 2

An economic stimulus package update and an update on an economic stimulus package.

Both will claim to have worked.

In one case, the update was part of a deal to stay in government.

In the other case, a government that has reluctantly provided any updates on anything, that loathes public access to government information and is stalling whistleblower protection legislation suddenly volunteers an update.

And the government pollster is already done his work for the quarter.

What’s up with that?

-srbp-

Meanwhile in a phone booth in St. John's...‏

there’s a fundraiser for Siobhan Coady, member of parliament for St. John’s South- Mount Pearl.

Well, actually the thing isn’t being held in a phone booth but it is being held at SuperDean’s house.

Hundred bucks a plate.

Guest: Justin Trudeau.

Invite only.

Wonder who’s on the guest list?

We can cross Roger Grimes and any of his friends off, most likely.

Maybe there’ll be some new faces, the ones that make some of us consider doing another round of Two Degrees of Separation.

-srbp-

Fart-in-Church Update: And then in ye olde inbox appears an e-mail from an official party source with the invite to the SuperDean/Justin event. Perhaps your humble e-scribbler is supposed to be on the invite list.

While Siobhan is certainly worthy of support and Trudeau is a sure-fire draw, the venue leaves so much to be desired that it pretty much cancels out the positives.

Maybe someone in the media or one of the attendees should ask the host if he shares his old buddy's jaundiced view of Confederation and the Liberal Party.

After all, this is part of the philosophy of Dannyism and Dannyism is something that SuperDean apparently thinks we need to keep going for a couple of decades more:

The way that our people and our region have been treated by one arrogant federal Liberal government after another is disgusting. The legacy that the late Prime Minister Trudeau and Jean Chrétien will leave in Atlantic Canada is one of dependence on Mother Ottawa, which has been orchestrated for political motives for the sole purpose of maintaining power.

Yep. There is a Great Liberal Conspiracy afoot to oppress the people of Atlantic Canada solely for the benefit of Les Rouges.

Not only that but the Great Liberal Conspiracy was perpetrated by none other than Justin's father, he being "the late Prime Minister Trudeau".

Such sentiment would surely go over like a fart in church among Liberals or even a fair-minded non-partisan with some passable knowledge of the facts of the matter.

Shuffle-up-a-gus

How often are there cabinet changes and shifts in the senior bureaucracy?

While there is no text-book solution to that question, aside from elections, resignations and political meltdowns, there usually aren’t a lot of shakeups in a team government.

The reasons are pretty simple.  Cabinet ministers and senior officials (deputy ministers and assistant deputies)  are expected to get to know their departments and the people in them, to form good working relationships and then get on with the business of running their respective shows.  cabinet will send down some instructions.  Departments are expected to come up with new ideas.

In order to do that, people have to spend time working together.  They need time to learn the issues and figure out what happens when you pull the lever over there in the corner.

All of that applies equally to both the political side of departmental management (the cabinet minister) and the public servants (deputy ministers and assistant deputies). 

In the eight years between 1996 and October 2003, successive Liberal premiers changed their cabinets (major and minor changes) 11 times. 

In the five and a half years since the fall 2003 election, the current administration has made changes to cabinet 12 times. The bulk of that shifting came in the first term, with at least two changes in assignments involving some ministers roughly every six months.

Over on the public service side, the relative numbers are even more dramatic.

Liberals:  24 appointments over eight years.

Progressive Conservatives:  37 in five and a half years or so.

Now some of these announcements were onesies and twosies, that is one appointment at a time.  In other cases, like the one made today, the changes have involved seven or eight people in different departments. 

Two of the appointments made Tuesday were for people filling jobs in an acting capacity while the person normally in the job is one some form of leave.  In some instances, there have been times when the top two positions in one department have both been acting simultaneously.  That hasn’t happened a lot but it has happened.

While changes at the cabinet level have been relatively infrequent since 2007, the same can;’t be said on the executive side.  Eight changes in 2005, but 11 in 2007, five in 2008 and four already in 2009. 

Beyond the frequency, your humble e-scribbler hasn’t finished a detailed assessment yet to see who has been moving and if there are any departments that have been the focus of the changes.

Still…

the numbers are striking.

-srbp-