From an interview with the Telegram (not online) here’s a telling little statement from finance minister Tom Marshall:
He said corporate and personal income taxes may be "softer than originally anticipated."
That’s true. Incidentally he meant the revenue coming from the taxes, not that there were plans to reduce taxation.
Corporate and personal income taxes may not be the only thing that is “softer than anticipated” this year.
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Go right ahead, gentlemen. Climb into the sandbox of Senate reform and start playing. But before doing so, pause and read at least a summary of a Supreme Court of Canada ruling of 1979 that will complicate every game you might wish to play.The ruling - issued in 1980 – is readily available online and makes for easy reading for anyone with a rudimentary knowledge of only the English language. It does not, as Simpson claims, mean that the federal parliament can “unilaterally do almost nothing to the Senate.”
The apparent intention of the 1949 amendment to the Act which enacted s. 91(1) was to obviate the necessity for the enactment of a statute of the British Parliament to effect amendments to the Act which theretofore had been obtained through a joint resolution of both Houses of Parliament and without provincial consent. Legislation enacted under this subsection since 1949 has dealt with matters which, according to the practice existing before 1949, would have been referred to the British Parliament by way of a joint resolution of both Houses of Parliament, and without the consent of the provinces. It did not in any substantial way affect federal-provincial relationships. The legislation contemplated in the first question is of an entirely different character. While it does not directly affect the federal-provincial relationships in the sense of changing federal and provincial legislative powers, it does envisage the elimination of one of the two Houses of Parliament, and so would alter the structure of the federal Parliament to which the federal power to legislate is entrusted under s. 91 of the Act.
The Senate has a vital role as an institution forming part of the federal system: one of its primary purposes was to afford protection to the various sectional interests in Canada in relation to the enactment of federal legislation. The power to enact federal legislation was given to the Queen by and with the advice and consent of the Senate and the House of Commons. Thus, the body which had been created as a means of protecting sectional and provincial interests was made a participant in this legislative process.Nowhere in that can one find anything that - even vaguely - gives provincial premiers a function veto over all senate reform as Jeff Simpson contends.
42. (1) An amendment to the Constitution of Canada in relation to the following matters may be made only in accordance with subsection 38(1):Unfortunately, Canadians are stuck in a situation in which the provincial satraps must find agreement before anything can be done with the senate. Don’t forget, this is the same gang that couldn’t even agree among themselves on how to keep the taps of federal Equalization cash flowing to them all.
…
(b) the powers of the Senate and the method of selecting Senators;
(c) the number of members by which a province is entitled to be represented in the Senate and the residence qualifications of Senators;
…
One glaring point the Globe and Mail front pager on senate reform missed is blatantly obvious.
The Globe claimed that:
Analysts say that provincial opposition in smaller provinces could stem from premiers' fear that their already weak national voice will be further limited if newly influential senators appear on the scene.
That’s crap.
All provincial premiers oppose any reform of the senate that would give it real power and political legitimacy.
All premiers are afraid that they will be eclipsed by a group of politicians representing Canadians in Ottawa elected on the basis of geography. They all fear being reduced to the status of American state governors.
Frankly, that would be the best thing for Canadians as a whole. The federal parliament should be comprised of two houses, one elected by population and the other representing the provinces equally.
No provincial government should control in any way shape or form the second chamber in the national parliament.
Elect senators directly, with equal numbers from each province.
It’s that simple, but if we let the premiers get involved we will do nothing but reinforce the anti-democratic, paternalistic attitude some of them have and the anti-democratic executive federalism they love to practice.
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of the Canadians Against Proroguing Parliament.
Facebook sez.
And they have a rally scheduled for January 23rd in St. John’s.
Presumably more details will follow because there’s precious little on the Facebook group right now.
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Former Liberal cabinet minister Jim Walsh will be spending a few months behind bars for his part in the House of Assembly spending scandal.
Judge David Orr sentenced Walsh to 22 months for fraud and 12 months for breach of trust. The sentences will be served concurrently.
By contrast, former provincial Conservative leader, natural resources minister and government leader in the House of Assembly Ed Byrne got two years less a day for fraud and 18 months for breach of trust, also served concurrently, for his part in the affair.
Walsh is the only one of the politicians charged thus far who opted to plead not guilty and face a trial. That likely had something to do with the sentence. The Crown recommended 18 months while the defence suggested no more than half that time to be served conditionally.
Former Liberal cabinet minister Wally Anderson was sentenced last year to 15 months for forgery and none months for breach of trust.
Former New Democrat member Randy Collins will be sentenced January 15.
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Ye, verily, lo and behold, good citizens:
There are problems with reports coming from Alberta about the Wild Rose party and polling.
Sounds very familiar.
One thing leaped out in particular and this had to do with the reliability of online surveys:
Unbeknownst to most Albertans – even many politically savvy ones and apparently to most political journalists, too – was the import of this statement.
First, this is an on-line survey, based on interviews with a group of Albertans, obviously interested in politics and quite possibly committed to a political party, who selected themselves for the job.
The advantage of on-line panels of this type is that they’re inexpensive to conduct. The disadvantage is that their results cannot be called scientific and they are not particularly credible.
Also unknown to most Albertans following this story is the fact that the phrase “margin of error is 3 per cent” is highly controversial in professional polling circles when applied to this kind of survey.
The implication is that the survey was based on sound scientific methodology and can be counted on to be accurate within a margin of 3 per cent.
The fact is the survey is based on the opinions of people who selected themselves to join the panel and answered questions on-line. In other words, this is not necessarily a particularly trustworthy poll.
That probably refers to issues like the ones raised in this businessweek.com article in 2008.
And it points out again why reporters need to ask more questions about polls and pollsters before they report the results.
Lie say this little gem from an American association of polling firms giving 20 questions journalists should ask about polls:
6. Are the results based on the answers of all the people interviewed?
One of the easiest ways to misrepresent the results of a poll is to report the answers of only a subgroup. For example, there is usually a substantial difference between the opinions of Democrats and Republicans on campaign-related matters. Reporting the opinions of only Democrats in a poll purported to be of all adults would substantially misrepresent the results.
Poll results based on Democrats must be identified as such and should be reported as representing only Democratic opinions.
Of course, reporting on just one subgroup can be exactly the right course. In polling on a primary contest, it is the opinions of those who can vote in the primary that count – not those who cannot vote in that contest. Primary polls should include only eligible primary voters.
Yes, ladies and gentlemen, reporting poll results as a percentage of “decideds“ is “one of the easiest ways to misrepresent the results of a poll…”. Some people won’t be shocked by that nugget.
If you scroll down you’ll also find a good section that points out methodological problems with online poll results.
And that’s before people misread news reports that seemed to suggest Danny Williams scored a 70% approval rating with all Canadians surveyed by Angus Reid last fall during the local poll goosing month of November.
At some points, local news organizations will either stop reporting obviously unreliable poll results or hold off until they get answers to some tough questions from the people flogging the polling fodder.
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For those who have been following along with the discussion of oil prices and provincial government revenue, it’s interesting to compare the price of crude oil at comparable parts of the fiscal year.
On Monday, as you may recall, we took a look at production. As the chart showed, offshore oil production in 2009 is well below production last. It’s so far down in fact that the provincial finance department’s predictions for 2009 might prove to be as accurate as the work of some late-night television psychic.
Here’s a rough look at daily spot prices for Brent crude for the period 01 April to 30 June in both 2008 (blue) and 2009 (red).
So prices were down by something on the order of 40 to about 50% and production was down by 14% in April, 39% in May, and 18% in June. That pretty much guarantees that revenues would be off as well compared to the previous year.
Sure enough, figures obtained from Natural Resources Canada confirm that. Figures for September confirmed the general pattern for the first half of the fiscal year. Oil revenues are running about 15% below the provincial government’s budget forecast.
Not 15% below the December fiscal update that talked about bringing in something like $1.8 billion in oil royalties but 15% below the budget forecast of $1.26 billion.
Provincial government oil royalties are a function of production, the royalty formula and the exchange rate for the Canadian dollar. In the front end of the fiscal year there was a bit of a premium for a cheap Canadian dollar. But as the Canadian dollar has climbed against the American greenback during the past six months, any premium that resulted from selling oil in U.S. funds and then converting to Canadian dollars vanished.
And if you look at the actual royalty figures it’s pretty clear that the improved royalty rate coming from Hibernia in payout couldn’t offset the drop in production, the drop in price and the shifting exchange rate. That’s a clue to the magnitude of the change in oil revenues. Even with all three fields in the optimum royalty condition, royalties are well down in 2009.
Just to keep close track of all this, your humble e-scribbler will have to go looking for the October and November royalty figures later this month That way it will be much more clear if the trends established in the front end of the year are continuing. Odds are they have carried on, despite the claims from the finance department in December.
As a last point, consider that a forecast by the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers in 2009 showed offshore oil production declining in Newfoundland and Labrador over the next five to seven years. There’s a bit of a peak close to 2020 and then things trail off again as some of the older fields dry up.
That’s the sort of information that should be guiding provincial government budgeting. Revenues aren’t going to be climbing ever higher. Demands for essentially services will, however, and the costs associated with that will rapidly escalate. This is an old refrain around these parts as regular readers well know.
That doesn’t mean there have to be spending cuts; it just means there has to be greater fiscal discipline, consistent and prudent planning and some serious attention paid to reducing the province’s debt load. In other words, the provincial government needs to be doing exactly the opposite of what it has been doing for the past three years.
There is hope.
Until last fall, you’d never have heard a cabinet minister admit what your humble e-scribbler and others have been saying for years.
But first Paul Oram and then others admitted the provincial government’s fiscal plan is unsustainable.
Acknowledging there is a problem is the first step toward doing something about it.
Let’s see what happens.
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There’s a settlement in the lawsuit launched by the sole survivor and the families of passengers and crew who died in the crash last march of a Sikorsky S-92 operated by Cougar helicopters.
A spokesperson for Sikorsky told Canadian Press:
"All of the claims in regard to the Cougar Flight 491 crew and passengers have been resolved…The settlement agreements are private and confidential, so I must decline to provide any details."
Last June, the families and the sole survivor filed a lawsuit against Sikorsky and related companies in Pennsylvania. The case was withdrawn in July in an effort to reach a settlement.
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You likely never imagined a popular revolt at the idea that parliament would not be sitting for about the same number of days that Tom Rideout was Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador.
[Okay, well, it would actually be longer than that but just go with it for now.]
But revolting the people are.
Well, at least a chunk of them.
Click and you’ll get the rabble.ca Cafepress store. Go ahead. Click it. Your humble e-scribbler doesn’t get a cut.
Meanwhile in Newfoundland and Labrador, does anyone care that the provincial legislature only sits - in total - for the same number of days Tom was Premier?
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Provincial government oil production forecast remains way off track.
Budget 2009 predicted oil production would total 98 million barrels in 2009. In December, the financial update raised the forecast to 101 million barrels.
But as of the end of November the offshore had produced only 59 million barrels and with only four months left in the fiscal year, it would take a miracle to hit the spring projection let alone the December number forecast by the provincial finance department.
Offshore oil production in October 2009 was 32% below the same month in 2008 and November production was down by 28.4%, according to actual production figures from the offshore regulatory board. BP presented earlier figures in November.
To give a sense of of how far down current oil production is compared to previous years, take a look at this chart that compares April to November for each of the past three fiscal years. The grey bars are 2007. The back is 2008 and the red is 2009.
To hit the December projection, production would have to run at levels of about 10.5 million barrels a month, and that’s a figure the offshore hasn’t hit this fiscal year at all.
Overall, if production is running below forecasts, it will be that much harder for the provincial government to hit its revenue forecasts. After all, even the finance minister admitted in a year end interview that virtually every major sector of the provincial economy – he didn’t really mention oil - was in decline.
“The recession, particularly the way it hit the U.S., impacted their ability to buy products from us and that hurt the fishing industry, that hurt the pulp and paper industry in a major way, and it hurt the mining industry,” the MHA for Humber East told The Western Star.
He said the major losses of revenue from those sectors, combined with losses of personal income tax and sales tax, impacts government’s ability to spend in other areas such as education and health care.
Of course, regular BP readers have a better sense of what’s going on with oil production than the anything the finance minister has said.
And just think about it for a second: if the finance department’s offshore production forecasts are so far out of whack with actual production, what else in the December forecast was off in a bad way as well?
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The concept is pretty simple: contributors send in something off the wall.
It could be an unusual subject, like say a one-holer outhouse with working front door and a roll of toilet paper.
Like say Dave Bailey from Newfoundland and Labrador who offered up a couple of new subjects.
The one below takes a real-world aircraft – the Convair Tradewind from the 1950s - and invents a whole story about it being re-engined for the Canadian Forces and eventually winding up fighting forest fires in Newfoundland and Labrador.
After the expected fiddling to fit the new engines, successful ground tests and taxi trials indicated that the idea was eminently workable, and on May 19 1960 the aircraft left the water and performed a 45 minute flight. Over the next few weeks the trials proved the concept beyond question, and procurement of the two on option was finalised. Service with the Royal Canadian Navy commenced in 1961 and they went on to perform sterling service in the search and rescue, resupply, and evacuation roles.
As they neared the end of their military careers Canadair once again investigated further uses, and firebombing was an obvious choice. The Government of Newfoundland and Labrador bought one example as a high-speed responder to attack outbreaks ahead of the arrival of the purpose built but slower CL-215 fleet. Its bulbous nose contours meant that it was immediately saddled with the nickname Moose, but other than that there was no joking about the prestige attached to flying it into action.
Dave took a kit of the Convair, added the multi-bladed engines and did the paint job and markings himself to create The Moose.
It might be called silly week but there’s nothing silly about the talent involved.
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Seems that something is holding up the announcement of four appointments to the provincial court. The clerks’ room at Number 3 Iniquity court was abuzz before Christmas with anticipation of an announcement ‘round about the first anniversary of l’affair Singleton.
Don Singleton’s appointment was announced on December 23, you may recall, and withdrawn in a storm of controversy on January 12.
Since then, there has been no sign of new appointments and the number of vacancies is four times larger.
Four empty seats on the provincial court doesn’t look very good, especially when a couple of them have been vacant for a year or more and after things got rather squirrely out in Gander in the middle of 2009.
After all, it’s already been checked over to see who’s been naughty and who’s been nice and the only ones left have passed the sooper dooper clearance checks supposedly imposed by Collin’s predecessor after said predecessor got caught out in the whole Singleton business.
After all, at some point, even the conventional media might notice that the provincial court is short a few judges and that the vacancies are getting older and older with each passing day.
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“In any thriving democracy, sound public policy can only come through informed debate and discussion.”
The reason for writing The Sir Robert Bond Papers remains today as it was five years ago when the first post appeared: to support informed discussion of issues that are important in Newfoundland and Labrador.
The reason remains because the need remains.
In the wake of political scandals and in an atmosphere of sometimes intense political thuggery, too many people of conscience have abandoned public life in our province. They have turned their backs on politics.
What’s worse, thoughtful people have turned away from talking seriously in their day-to-day lives about our province and its people and their future.
“Sound public policy” comes across as a really high-brow pile of words. Simple put, it is about choices. Politics is really about picking between different views, different goals, different ways and different ideas.
In order to make choices people need to know what choices there are. So Bond Papers provides a point of view that you just don’t find in many other places, if at all. Offering another point of view has become, of necessity, the second reason for writing.
So much of what does get talked about these days in Newfoundland and Labrador is based on false information. No one can make a sensible choice based on myth and fantasy. And that has become, again of necessity, the third reason for writing: Bond Papers is a source of accurate information.
All those links are there for a reason. They take you back to where the information came from in the first place. They also take you back to the heart of what democracy is really all about.
In a democracy, everyone gets to make the choices. So when you read something here, you don’t have to just accept that it is correct because someone in authority – real or supposed – tells you so. You can go and think about it, find the original information and make up your own mind. You have a right to information, accurate information, complete information.
And in the end, you have the right to make a choice for something other than what those in authority decide is best if that’s what you think is best. You and every other individual in this province have that right. You have the right to expect your politicians to listen when you say something. They ought to listen every day, not just when there is a by-election on.
Anything else is not healthy.
Bond Papers continues five years after it started, five years and some four and a half thousand posts later, because the need for it remains.
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So parliament will start anew in the New Year and all the empty seats in the senate will have new bums to fill them.
Who do you think will get the nod?
Who do you think should get the job, if it wasn’t a partisan wank-fest?
Drop a name in a comment space. See if you can beat some of the suggestions on a post from last October.
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Spin is bullshit.
Plain and simple.
In this Canadian Press story, much is made of the fact that 29% of employers in a survey by careerbuilder.ca said they planned to hire next year.
Logically, that means that the overwhelming majority – 71% – planned to keep things just as they are or reduce staff. And since the story says only nine percent of those surveyed planned to decrease their staff levels, that means that – you guessed it - twice as many of those surveyed weren’t planning to do anything with their staffing at all next year as indicated they’d be hiring.
So where in the name of merciful heavens did Canadian Press get the idea this means the survey is “adding optimism” that the year-long job doldrums are over?
They got it from the news release, of course written by a company which has a vested interest in hyping the crap out of expectations for a boost in hiring.
And Canadian Press isn’t alone. Others have picked up the pure, undiluted bullshit from careerbuilder.ca and its American parent. It’s all in line with the line coming from different sources for about a year now that the recession was over and the recovery was underway. Unfortunately for the purveyors of all this nonsense, repeating the same crap over and over doesn’t actually do anything least of all make the untrue suddenly and miraculously true.
What’s really more interesting in all this is not that organizations with a vested interest in hyping the crap out of something – like government for example – actually hypes the crap out of something. Nope. Notice instead that even the venerated Canadian Press is now being affected by the same problems that have afflicted other news outlets. Reporters and editors aren’t suddenly innumerate. They just don’t have the ability any more to weed out bullshit, even when the bullshit is so patently obvious as in this news release.
If only 29% of employers plan to hire next year – or 20% in the United States version of the survey – rest assured of one thing: the recession ain’t over.
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From Bert Decker, his list of the top 10 American communicators.
Some you will recognise and agree with. Some you will recognise and wonder: “WTF?”
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No need for elaborate commentaries for this one.
Here are the 10 stories that - in the not so humble opinion of your humble e-scribbler - had a huge impact on Newfoundland and Labrador in 2009 and/or which will continue to affect the province into the future.
Odds are this list will look like all the other locally generated lists of top news story for 2009, even if the ordering may be slightly different.
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